能源、环境与区域经济增长研究
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摘要
改革开放以来，中国经济持续快速增长，增长规模与速度举世瞩目。但中国经济的快速增长主要依靠的是大量的要素投入和环境的破坏来实现的，而不是全要素生产率（TFP）的大幅提升。随着中国低劳动力成本优势的流失、资本边际报酬的递减、能源产品价格的不断上涨和能源供应紧张，这种增长方式显然是不可持续的。本文在经济增长理论的框架下对经济增长、能源消耗、环境污染三者之间的逻辑关系和相互影响机制进行了分析。论文的研究目的在于通过构建一个考虑能源和环境因素的中国区域经济增长研究的分析框架，得出促进中国在能源节约、环境保护的同时实现经济可持续增长的政策建议。论文的主要工作包括以下几个方面：
首先，论文使用了规范性研究方法分析了中国面临的能源资源概况。从能源储量来看，中国能源总储量丰富，但中国能源禀赋结构表现出“多煤、少油、贫气”的特征，并且多年来中国能源资源储采比远远低于世界平均水平。从能源生产来看，虽然中国能源生产总量逐渐增加，但能源生产结构主要是以煤炭为主，虽然也在向可再生能源、新能源方向发展，但进展缓慢。从能源消费来看，能源消费总量呈上升趋势，由能源的禀赋结构和生产结构决定了能源消费结构仍以煤炭为主，未来会向可再生能源、新能源方向发展。从能源的供需缺口来看，中国能源消费量大于生产量，供需出现明显缺口，并呈逐渐增大的趋势。从能源的区域分布来看，中国能源的分布极不均衡，西北地区较多，东南地区较少，而中国的能源消费主要集中在东南沿海地区，能源分布与能源消费呈空间错位格局。从可再生能源来看，近年来，中国可再生能源的发展迅速，主要表现在风电、水电、太阳能及燃料能源的发展上，成果瞩目。从能源利用效率来看，虽然近几年中国单位GDP能耗逐渐降低，但与国际比较，仍远远高于发达国家水平。
通过文献和经济理论分析得出，能源价格偏低是导致能源出现缺口、能源利用效率低下等的原因。能源价格偏低又与能源领域尚未形成充分市场化的价格形成机制，政府存在调控能源价格的行为有关。本文紧接着提出了一种新的能源定价方法——特征价格法。通过使用特征价格模型研究能源的价格，可以为政府和市场主体预测能源的价格提供参考。
其次，随着能源对经济的重要性越来越凸显，对中国经济增长的研究是否需要考虑能源要素又是本论文的研究工作之一。通过分别对中国能源消费和经济增长的省域和区域概况进行分析表明，东部、中部和西部地区中，东部地区的能源消费与经济增长的总量都是位列第一的，并且三个地区间的能源消费与经济增长的差距都有不断扩大的趋势。因而，我们将能源消费与经济增长放在一个坐标中进行考虑，通过对两者的一般关系进行分析表明，无论从能源消费和经济增长的总量还是从增长率来看，中国各省市能源消费与经济增长基本呈现出正相关关系，经济增长水平高的省市基本位于能耗高的东部沿海地区，耗能低的中西部地区经济却很落后，这说明经济增长需要能源作依托。论文接下来使用面板协整分析、误差修正模型及面板格兰杰因果检验对中国省级层面的能源消费与经济增长之间的动态关系进行了分析，研究表明，无论从长期还是短期来看，能源消耗与经济增长之间互为双向因果关系，能源消费增加导致人均GDP增加，人均GDP增加导致能源消费增加。
第三，大部分关于经济增长的实证研究在生产函数中都没有将能源考虑在内，而我们通过对中国能源消费与经济增长的面板协整以及格兰杰因果检验发现经济增长依赖于能源的投入，能源要素在经济增长中的作用不能忽略。所以，接下来论文基于随机前沿模型，提出了考虑能源投入下的经济增长的分析框架。论文采用了资本、劳动和能源三投入要素的超越对数生产函数的随机前沿面板模型，考察了1990-2008年中国省域的生产效率和全要素生产率增长率，依照Kumbhakar的全要素生产率分解方法，将全要素生产率分解为技术效率变化、技术进步、规模效率变化、配置效率变化。实证结果表明：从各要素的产出弹性来看，能源的产出弹性逐年递增，劳动对经济产出的贡献在减弱，资本基本维持不变，且产出弹性始终保持最大，这表明中国劳动密集型产业正在逐渐被资本密集型和高能耗产业所替代。从生产函数与技术效率模型的估计结果可以得出，人力资本、市场化程度、外资因素和进出口比重对技术效率有正影响，而政府财政支出的影响为负。从各地区的技术效率特征来看，东部地区基本高于全国平均技术效率水平，中部地区普遍接近全国平均水平；西部地区低于全国平均水平，这反映了技术效率越高的地方，经济发展也越快。最后从全要素生产率增长率的分解结论可以看出，技术进步而非技术效率的提高对全要素生产率增长率的贡献最大。
第四，论文继续研究了考虑能源与环境因素的中国区域环境技术效率与全要素生产率。中国依靠高投入、高消耗、高污染的经济增长方式不仅带来了严重的能源浪费问题，也为此付出了沉重的环境代价。2010年，中国SO2排放居世界第一。此外，无论从CO2排放总量来看还是从单位GDP的CO2排放量来看，中国的碳排放也远远高于世界平均水平。严重的环境污染状况会削弱中国的国际竞争力，降低中国在国际市场上的谈判地位，更重要的是，会影响中国经济、社会、环境的可持续发展。接着论文研究了考虑能源和环境因素的中国区域经济增长，使用基于SBM方向性距离函数测算了中国区域经济的环境技术效率，使用卢恩伯格生产率指数测算了区域经济的环境全要素生产率。研究表明，在投入、产出和污染排放三项因素中，产出没有出现无效率，其中由能源投入和污染排放所产生的无效率值合计为0.2202，约占到环境无效率总量的71.82%，这足以看出节能减排对于中国的可持续发展的重要意义。比较各区域环境技术效率指标得出，东部地区的环境技术效率始终最高，中部次之，西部最低。最后对环境全要素生产率进行分解得出，纯技术进步仍是环境全要素生产率的最大贡献因素。
论文最后依据全文的研究结论提出了考虑能源和环境因素的中国经济可持续发展的政策建议，指出了本文的不足之处和今后继续研究的方向。
Since the reform and opening-up, China's economy has maintained a sustained, rapid growth formany years, and the scale and speed of its growth has attracted worldwide attention. But China's rapideconomic growth mainly relied on a lot of factor inputs and damage to the environment to achieve,rather than total factor productivity (TFP) increased significantly. With the loss of China's low labourcost advantage, diminishing marginal returns of capital, rising energy prices and energy supplyconstraints, the growth mode is clearly unsustainable. This paper investigates the logical relationshipand interaction mechanisms among economic growth, resource consumption and environmentalpollution under the framework of the theory of economic growth. The purpose of this paper is to buildthe framework of analysis of China's economic growth incorporating energy and environment factors,and conclude policy recommendations to promote resource conservation, environmental protection toachieve sustainable economic growth. The main work of this paper includes the following aspects.
Firstly, the paper uses the normative method to analysis the current situation of our energyconstraint. From the view of energy reserves, China 's total energy reserves are abundant, but thefeature of China's energy endowment structure showed "more coal, less oil, lean gas", and the Chineseenergy resources reserve-production ratio is far below the world average for many years. From energyproduction, China`s total energy production gradually increased, but energy production structuremainly coal-based, it also direct to renewable energy, new energy, but progress is slow. From theview of energy consumption, total energy consumption is rising, determined by the Endowmentstructure and production structure of the energy the energy consumption structure is still dominatedby coal, the consumption structure will direct to renewable energy, new energy direction in the future.From the view of the energy gap between supply and demand, China's energy consumption is greaterthan production, supply-demand gap widen sharply. Judging from the regional distribution of energy,China's energy distribution is extremely uneven, more in the Northwest, the Southeast less, whileChina 's energy consumption is mainly concentrated in the southeast coastal areas, energy distributionand energy consumption showed a spatial dislocation pattern. From renewable energy sources, inrecent years, China 's rapid development of renewable energy, mainly in wind power, hydropower,solar energy and fuel. From the view of energy efficiency, although in recent years, Chinese energy consumption per unit GDP in recent years gradually decrease, but with the international comparison,is still far higher than the level of developed countries.
Through the analysis of literature and economic theory conclude that low energy prices led to theenergy gap and energy inefficient. It is not yet a fully market-oriented price formation mechanism inresource market. The behavior of government regulation of price of energy exists. The prices cannotreflect the scarcity of resources. The paper presents a new renergy pricing method—hedonicpricing method. By using the hedonic price model of energy prices, it can provide a reference to thegovernment and market players to predict the price of energy.
Secondly, with energy beome more and more important to the economy, whether energy need tobe incorporated into the production function is one of the research works in this paper. By comparingenergy consumption and economic growth in China 's provincial and regional profiles analysis showsthat in the eastern, central and western regions, the eastern region's total energy consumption andeconomic growth are ranked first, and the three gap between energy consumption and economicgrowth has continued to expand. Thus, energy consumption and economic growth in a coordinate isconsidered. Then we analyze the general relationship between energy consumption and economicgrowth. Whether view from the rate of growth or from total amount, we find that energy consumptionand economic development is showing a positive correlation in different provinces of China. Areaswith high levels of economic development almost are located on the eastern coastal with high energyconsumption，the central and western regions with low energy consumption is very backward,economic development relying on energy; Then, the paper uses panel cointegration, error correctionmodel and panel Granger causality to investigate dynamic relationship between economic growth andenergy consumption. The results show that it has the bi-directional causal relationship betweeneconomic growth and energy consumption not only in short term but also in long term. Increasedenergy consumption can lead to increased GDP, and increased GDP can lead to increased energyconsumption.
Thirdly, most of economic growth empirical researches do not take into account the energy in theproduction function, and we found that economic growth depends on the energy invested by usingpanel co-integration and granger causality test on China energy consumption and economic growthdata. Energy play an import role to economic growth and these can not be ignored. So, this paperproposes analytical framework of economic growth under energy constraints based on stochastic frontier model. The paper uses stochastic frontier analysis model of beyond the logarithmicproduction function of three input factors as capital, labour and energy, examines the1990-2008production efficiency and total factor productivity growth rate of all provinces in China, usesKumbhakar method for the decomposition of total factor productivity. It decomposes total factorproductivity to productivity change, technological progress, scale efficiency change，allocativeefficiency change. We get some empirical results. From the point of the output elasticity of inputs，This shows that Chinese labor-intensive industries are gradually being replaced by capital-intensiveand energy-intensive industries. From the estimation results of production function and technicalefficiency model drawn that, human capital, market-oriented factors, foreign investment, and exporthave a positive impact on productivity, but government fiscal spending makes a negative impact on it.From the view of technical efficiency features in various regions, technical efficiency levels above thenational average in the eastern region, central region generally closer to the national average, Westernarea lower than the national average. This reflects the higher technical efficiency, economicdevelopment is also faster. Finally, from the decomposition of TFP growth can be seen, technologicalprogress rather than technical efficiency is the greatest contribution rate to TFP growth rate.
Fourthly, this paper researchs on regional environmental technical efficiency and totalproductivity in China conclude energy and environment. Relies on high input, high consumption, highpollution in China's mode of economic growth is not only bringing a serious waste of energy issues,also paid a heavy environmental price. In2010, China`s SO2emissions still ranks first in the world.By analyzing from two angles of the total CO2emissions and CO2emissions of per unit GDP showesthat China's carbon emissions are far higher than the world average. China is facing seriousenvironmental pollution will weaken the country's international competitiveness, reduce ournegotiating position in the international market, the most important is, will affect the sustainabledevelopment of China's economy, society and environment. Therefore, the paper researchs onregional technical efficiency and total productivity in China conclude energy and environment. Itusing SBM directional distance function estimates regional environmental technical efficiency inChina, and using luenberger productivity index calucates regional total factor productivity in China.Research has shown that three inputs, outputs and pollution emission factors, output does not appearinefficient, energy inputs and emissions arising from inefficient value totals0.2202, approximately71.82%of total environmental inefficiencies. It's enough to see the significance of energy conservation for sustainable development in China. From environmental technical efficiency in allregions concluded that the eastern region has the highest environmental technical efficiency, centralsecond, and lowest in the West. Decomposition of total factor productivity draw that, pure technicalprogress is still the largest contributors to the growth rate of total factor productivity.
Finally, based on the empirical analysis conclusions this paper puts forward some policyrecommendations for China`s sustainable development conclude energy and environment, points outthe shortcomings of this paper and future research directions.
首先，论文使用了规范性研究方法分析了中国面临的能源资源概况。从能源储量来看，中国能源总储量丰富，但中国能源禀赋结构表现出“多煤、少油、贫气”的特征，并且多年来中国能源资源储采比远远低于世界平均水平。从能源生产来看，虽然中国能源生产总量逐渐增加，但能源生产结构主要是以煤炭为主，虽然也在向可再生能源、新能源方向发展，但进展缓慢。从能源消费来看，能源消费总量呈上升趋势，由能源的禀赋结构和生产结构决定了能源消费结构仍以煤炭为主，未来会向可再生能源、新能源方向发展。从能源的供需缺口来看，中国能源消费量大于生产量，供需出现明显缺口，并呈逐渐增大的趋势。从能源的区域分布来看，中国能源的分布极不均衡，西北地区较多，东南地区较少，而中国的能源消费主要集中在东南沿海地区，能源分布与能源消费呈空间错位格局。从可再生能源来看，近年来，中国可再生能源的发展迅速，主要表现在风电、水电、太阳能及燃料能源的发展上，成果瞩目。从能源利用效率来看，虽然近几年中国单位GDP能耗逐渐降低，但与国际比较，仍远远高于发达国家水平。
通过文献和经济理论分析得出，能源价格偏低是导致能源出现缺口、能源利用效率低下等的原因。能源价格偏低又与能源领域尚未形成充分市场化的价格形成机制，政府存在调控能源价格的行为有关。本文紧接着提出了一种新的能源定价方法——特征价格法。通过使用特征价格模型研究能源的价格，可以为政府和市场主体预测能源的价格提供参考。
其次，随着能源对经济的重要性越来越凸显，对中国经济增长的研究是否需要考虑能源要素又是本论文的研究工作之一。通过分别对中国能源消费和经济增长的省域和区域概况进行分析表明，东部、中部和西部地区中，东部地区的能源消费与经济增长的总量都是位列第一的，并且三个地区间的能源消费与经济增长的差距都有不断扩大的趋势。因而，我们将能源消费与经济增长放在一个坐标中进行考虑，通过对两者的一般关系进行分析表明，无论从能源消费和经济增长的总量还是从增长率来看，中国各省市能源消费与经济增长基本呈现出正相关关系，经济增长水平高的省市基本位于能耗高的东部沿海地区，耗能低的中西部地区经济却很落后，这说明经济增长需要能源作依托。论文接下来使用面板协整分析、误差修正模型及面板格兰杰因果检验对中国省级层面的能源消费与经济增长之间的动态关系进行了分析，研究表明，无论从长期还是短期来看，能源消耗与经济增长之间互为双向因果关系，能源消费增加导致人均GDP增加，人均GDP增加导致能源消费增加。
第三，大部分关于经济增长的实证研究在生产函数中都没有将能源考虑在内，而我们通过对中国能源消费与经济增长的面板协整以及格兰杰因果检验发现经济增长依赖于能源的投入，能源要素在经济增长中的作用不能忽略。所以，接下来论文基于随机前沿模型，提出了考虑能源投入下的经济增长的分析框架。论文采用了资本、劳动和能源三投入要素的超越对数生产函数的随机前沿面板模型，考察了1990-2008年中国省域的生产效率和全要素生产率增长率，依照Kumbhakar的全要素生产率分解方法，将全要素生产率分解为技术效率变化、技术进步、规模效率变化、配置效率变化。实证结果表明：从各要素的产出弹性来看，能源的产出弹性逐年递增，劳动对经济产出的贡献在减弱，资本基本维持不变，且产出弹性始终保持最大，这表明中国劳动密集型产业正在逐渐被资本密集型和高能耗产业所替代。从生产函数与技术效率模型的估计结果可以得出，人力资本、市场化程度、外资因素和进出口比重对技术效率有正影响，而政府财政支出的影响为负。从各地区的技术效率特征来看，东部地区基本高于全国平均技术效率水平，中部地区普遍接近全国平均水平；西部地区低于全国平均水平，这反映了技术效率越高的地方，经济发展也越快。最后从全要素生产率增长率的分解结论可以看出，技术进步而非技术效率的提高对全要素生产率增长率的贡献最大。
第四，论文继续研究了考虑能源与环境因素的中国区域环境技术效率与全要素生产率。中国依靠高投入、高消耗、高污染的经济增长方式不仅带来了严重的能源浪费问题，也为此付出了沉重的环境代价。2010年，中国SO2排放居世界第一。此外，无论从CO2排放总量来看还是从单位GDP的CO2排放量来看，中国的碳排放也远远高于世界平均水平。严重的环境污染状况会削弱中国的国际竞争力，降低中国在国际市场上的谈判地位，更重要的是，会影响中国经济、社会、环境的可持续发展。接着论文研究了考虑能源和环境因素的中国区域经济增长，使用基于SBM方向性距离函数测算了中国区域经济的环境技术效率，使用卢恩伯格生产率指数测算了区域经济的环境全要素生产率。研究表明，在投入、产出和污染排放三项因素中，产出没有出现无效率，其中由能源投入和污染排放所产生的无效率值合计为0.2202，约占到环境无效率总量的71.82%，这足以看出节能减排对于中国的可持续发展的重要意义。比较各区域环境技术效率指标得出，东部地区的环境技术效率始终最高，中部次之，西部最低。最后对环境全要素生产率进行分解得出，纯技术进步仍是环境全要素生产率的最大贡献因素。
论文最后依据全文的研究结论提出了考虑能源和环境因素的中国经济可持续发展的政策建议，指出了本文的不足之处和今后继续研究的方向。
Since the reform and opening-up, China's economy has maintained a sustained, rapid growth formany years, and the scale and speed of its growth has attracted worldwide attention. But China's rapideconomic growth mainly relied on a lot of factor inputs and damage to the environment to achieve,rather than total factor productivity (TFP) increased significantly. With the loss of China's low labourcost advantage, diminishing marginal returns of capital, rising energy prices and energy supplyconstraints, the growth mode is clearly unsustainable. This paper investigates the logical relationshipand interaction mechanisms among economic growth, resource consumption and environmentalpollution under the framework of the theory of economic growth. The purpose of this paper is to buildthe framework of analysis of China's economic growth incorporating energy and environment factors,and conclude policy recommendations to promote resource conservation, environmental protection toachieve sustainable economic growth. The main work of this paper includes the following aspects.
Firstly, the paper uses the normative method to analysis the current situation of our energyconstraint. From the view of energy reserves, China 's total energy reserves are abundant, but thefeature of China's energy endowment structure showed "more coal, less oil, lean gas", and the Chineseenergy resources reserve-production ratio is far below the world average for many years. From energyproduction, China`s total energy production gradually increased, but energy production structuremainly coal-based, it also direct to renewable energy, new energy, but progress is slow. From theview of energy consumption, total energy consumption is rising, determined by the Endowmentstructure and production structure of the energy the energy consumption structure is still dominatedby coal, the consumption structure will direct to renewable energy, new energy direction in the future.From the view of the energy gap between supply and demand, China's energy consumption is greaterthan production, supply-demand gap widen sharply. Judging from the regional distribution of energy,China's energy distribution is extremely uneven, more in the Northwest, the Southeast less, whileChina 's energy consumption is mainly concentrated in the southeast coastal areas, energy distributionand energy consumption showed a spatial dislocation pattern. From renewable energy sources, inrecent years, China 's rapid development of renewable energy, mainly in wind power, hydropower,solar energy and fuel. From the view of energy efficiency, although in recent years, Chinese energy consumption per unit GDP in recent years gradually decrease, but with the international comparison,is still far higher than the level of developed countries.
Through the analysis of literature and economic theory conclude that low energy prices led to theenergy gap and energy inefficient. It is not yet a fully market-oriented price formation mechanism inresource market. The behavior of government regulation of price of energy exists. The prices cannotreflect the scarcity of resources. The paper presents a new renergy pricing method—hedonicpricing method. By using the hedonic price model of energy prices, it can provide a reference to thegovernment and market players to predict the price of energy.
Secondly, with energy beome more and more important to the economy, whether energy need tobe incorporated into the production function is one of the research works in this paper. By comparingenergy consumption and economic growth in China 's provincial and regional profiles analysis showsthat in the eastern, central and western regions, the eastern region's total energy consumption andeconomic growth are ranked first, and the three gap between energy consumption and economicgrowth has continued to expand. Thus, energy consumption and economic growth in a coordinate isconsidered. Then we analyze the general relationship between energy consumption and economicgrowth. Whether view from the rate of growth or from total amount, we find that energy consumptionand economic development is showing a positive correlation in different provinces of China. Areaswith high levels of economic development almost are located on the eastern coastal with high energyconsumption，the central and western regions with low energy consumption is very backward,economic development relying on energy; Then, the paper uses panel cointegration, error correctionmodel and panel Granger causality to investigate dynamic relationship between economic growth andenergy consumption. The results show that it has the bi-directional causal relationship betweeneconomic growth and energy consumption not only in short term but also in long term. Increasedenergy consumption can lead to increased GDP, and increased GDP can lead to increased energyconsumption.
Thirdly, most of economic growth empirical researches do not take into account the energy in theproduction function, and we found that economic growth depends on the energy invested by usingpanel co-integration and granger causality test on China energy consumption and economic growthdata. Energy play an import role to economic growth and these can not be ignored. So, this paperproposes analytical framework of economic growth under energy constraints based on stochastic frontier model. The paper uses stochastic frontier analysis model of beyond the logarithmicproduction function of three input factors as capital, labour and energy, examines the1990-2008production efficiency and total factor productivity growth rate of all provinces in China, usesKumbhakar method for the decomposition of total factor productivity. It decomposes total factorproductivity to productivity change, technological progress, scale efficiency change，allocativeefficiency change. We get some empirical results. From the point of the output elasticity of inputs，This shows that Chinese labor-intensive industries are gradually being replaced by capital-intensiveand energy-intensive industries. From the estimation results of production function and technicalefficiency model drawn that, human capital, market-oriented factors, foreign investment, and exporthave a positive impact on productivity, but government fiscal spending makes a negative impact on it.From the view of technical efficiency features in various regions, technical efficiency levels above thenational average in the eastern region, central region generally closer to the national average, Westernarea lower than the national average. This reflects the higher technical efficiency, economicdevelopment is also faster. Finally, from the decomposition of TFP growth can be seen, technologicalprogress rather than technical efficiency is the greatest contribution rate to TFP growth rate.
Fourthly, this paper researchs on regional environmental technical efficiency and totalproductivity in China conclude energy and environment. Relies on high input, high consumption, highpollution in China's mode of economic growth is not only bringing a serious waste of energy issues,also paid a heavy environmental price. In2010, China`s SO2emissions still ranks first in the world.By analyzing from two angles of the total CO2emissions and CO2emissions of per unit GDP showesthat China's carbon emissions are far higher than the world average. China is facing seriousenvironmental pollution will weaken the country's international competitiveness, reduce ournegotiating position in the international market, the most important is, will affect the sustainabledevelopment of China's economy, society and environment. Therefore, the paper researchs onregional technical efficiency and total productivity in China conclude energy and environment. Itusing SBM directional distance function estimates regional environmental technical efficiency inChina, and using luenberger productivity index calucates regional total factor productivity in China.Research has shown that three inputs, outputs and pollution emission factors, output does not appearinefficient, energy inputs and emissions arising from inefficient value totals0.2202, approximately71.82%of total environmental inefficiencies. It's enough to see the significance of energy conservation for sustainable development in China. From environmental technical efficiency in allregions concluded that the eastern region has the highest environmental technical efficiency, centralsecond, and lowest in the West. Decomposition of total factor productivity draw that, pure technicalprogress is still the largest contributors to the growth rate of total factor productivity.
Finally, based on the empirical analysis conclusions this paper puts forward some policyrecommendations for China`s sustainable development conclude energy and environment, points outthe shortcomings of this paper and future research directions.
引文
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