基于价值转移法的自然资源游憩价值评价研究
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摘要
对自然资源的合理保护和有效利用离不开对其经济价值的科学评价。从20世纪80年代开始,随着国外对自然资源及价值评价需求的不断增长,相对于旅行成本法及意愿评价法等实证研究方法来说,一种更便捷、更经济的自然资源价值评价方法——价值转移法,在美国等发达国家的公共项目的成本-效益分析及自然资源损失评估中得到广泛应用。然而限于多种原因,我国目前还鲜有对于价值转移法的系统研究及其应用。尽管国内自然资源游憩价值评价的实证研究数量和质量与国外存在较大差距,但充分利用现有研究文献数据,建构能够反映中国特定国情的价值转移标准化模型,研究解决我国自然资源游憩价值转移有效性等一系列技术和方法问题,以科学指导自然资源游憩价值评价的实践,具有非常重要的现实意义。同时,通过对价值转移方法的具体应用研究,发现在中国特定研究环境下应用价值转移方法所存在的限制因素和国内外差异因素,逐步形成具有本土化特色的游憩价值转移的方法体系,丰富和完善自然资源游憩价值评价的理论,其研究工作的理论意义也自然不容小视。
本研究首先在系统总结国内外自然资源价值评价理论和方法的基础上,从基本概念、基础理论、原则与方法、步骤及流程等方面构建了自然资源游憩价值转移的基本理论框架和方法体系,并对价值转移模型的有效性及可靠性的内涵、检验方法等方面进行了较为深入的剖析及论述。通过构建转移误差与转移有效性影响因素的回归模型,发现了对价值转移模型有效性有显著影响的因素及其影响机理,探究了影响价值转移效果的
一般性规律,为我国有效应用价值转移方法提供理论基础和技术支持。其次，系统分析了我国自然资源游憩价值评价的实证研究数据存在的局限性,并通过构建Meta回归模型的过程及统计检验结果,发现了我国目前应用价值转移方法存在的具体障碍,并提出改善Meta回归价值转移效果的方法。再次,利用国外自然资源游憩价值评价的结果,构建符合我国实际情况的、具有一定普适性的游憩价值评价的Meta回归价值转移标准化模型,探索发达国家向我国进行价值转移的特殊性及复杂性,以及国内外数据差异对模型构建及转移有效性的影响。通过对国际研究地样本的针对性筛选、国内政策地样本的质量控制以及国内外样本差异变量的调整和统一,有效地降低了国际间Meta回归价值转移的误差,其中游憩活动价值的平均转移误差为18.74%,相比国内平均转移误差降低了65%,自然景观游憩价值转移误差的范围也从27.47%-50.66%缩小到了0.35%-17.94%。基于Meta回归价值转移标准模型估计了我国4类自然景观及10种游憩活动的日平均价值,初步建立了我国自然资源游憩价值评价的核算参考标准。最后,总结了我国提高自然资源游憩价值转移有效性和可靠性的经验,以及促进我国广泛、科学应用价值转移方法的政策建议。
The reasonable protection and effective utilization of natural resources cannot be achieved without economic valuation. From the1980s, along with consistently increasing demand of natural resources and valuation, foreign economists not only widely apply methodologies such as travel cost method and contingent valuation method to measure monetized values of natural resources, but also find a more convenient and economical natural resources valuation method-benefit transfer method, which has been widely applied in cost-benefit analysis and natural resources loss evaluation in public programs of many developed countries such as the US. Nowadays, China is still lack of research quantity and quality of natural resources recreation valuation by comparing with other developed countries. A systematic research and application of benefit transfer method is also rare in China. Since the limited quantity and quality of available researches of natural resources valuations, it has very important practical significance to establish a standardized benefit transfer model which can reflect China's current situation and to solve a series of techniques and methods of the efficiency and reliability of China's natural resources recreation benefit transfer models. Meanwhile, through the concrete application research of benefit transfer method, the paper finds the limiting factors in China and data differences between China and developed countries, gradually forms the methods for recreation value transfer system with China's characteristics, and enriches and perfects the theory of natural resources value evaluation. Therefore, the theoretical sense of the paper can not be overlooked.
The beginning of this research is based on a systematical summary of both domestic and international core studies on non-market resources valuation theories and methods, and established a theoretical framework and methodological system of benefit transfer in terms of basic concepts and theories, principles and methods, procedures and processes etc. It also includes some deep analysis and discussion on the connotation of benefits transfer efficiency and reliability, statistical validity testing methods. In order to provide theoretical and technical support while using benefit transfer method in an effective way, the research analyzed the elements and impact factors which have significant impacts on the statistical validity of meta-analysis benefit transfer model by establishing a regression model between transfer error and impact factors. Then, the research systematically analyzes the empirical data limitation of China's natural resources recreation valuation, and discovers specific barriers while using benefit transfer method by establishing meta-regression model and analyzing the statistical test results. Thus, it proposes a method to improve the benefit transfer consequence while using meta-regression model. In addition, the research studies how to utilize the results of recreation valuation in developed countries to establish a standard meta-regression benefit transfer model. This model has to be general and complied with China's actual situation in natural recreation valuation. The research also finds particularity and complexity while natural resource benefits are transferred from developed countries to China as well as the impact of domestic and international data differences on model establishment and transfer efficiency. Through a targeted screening of international study sites research sampling, quality control of domestic policy sites samples as well as the adjustment and unification of different sample variables have been achieved. It effectively reduces meta-regression benefit transfer error. The lowest out-of-sample benefit transfer error of international models is18.74%. By comparing with average transfer errors based on China's empirical study data, it is reduced by65%. Also, transfer error of natural resources recreation value reduces from a range27.47%-50.66%to0.35%-17.94%. Meta-regression benefit transfer models are used to predict daily average consumer surplus of4types of natural resources and10types of recreation activities in China. These predicted values can be used as reference standard in natural recreation value estimation. At the end of the research, it concludes experiences of improving the validity and reliability of China's natural resources recreation benefits transfer models and gives some recommendations of how to promote a wide range of scientific applications of benefit transfer method.
本研究首先在系统总结国内外自然资源价值评价理论和方法的基础上,从基本概念、基础理论、原则与方法、步骤及流程等方面构建了自然资源游憩价值转移的基本理论框架和方法体系,并对价值转移模型的有效性及可靠性的内涵、检验方法等方面进行了较为深入的剖析及论述。通过构建转移误差与转移有效性影响因素的回归模型,发现了对价值转移模型有效性有显著影响的因素及其影响机理,探究了影响价值转移效果的
一般性规律,为我国有效应用价值转移方法提供理论基础和技术支持。其次，系统分析了我国自然资源游憩价值评价的实证研究数据存在的局限性,并通过构建Meta回归模型的过程及统计检验结果,发现了我国目前应用价值转移方法存在的具体障碍,并提出改善Meta回归价值转移效果的方法。再次,利用国外自然资源游憩价值评价的结果,构建符合我国实际情况的、具有一定普适性的游憩价值评价的Meta回归价值转移标准化模型,探索发达国家向我国进行价值转移的特殊性及复杂性,以及国内外数据差异对模型构建及转移有效性的影响。通过对国际研究地样本的针对性筛选、国内政策地样本的质量控制以及国内外样本差异变量的调整和统一,有效地降低了国际间Meta回归价值转移的误差,其中游憩活动价值的平均转移误差为18.74%,相比国内平均转移误差降低了65%,自然景观游憩价值转移误差的范围也从27.47%-50.66%缩小到了0.35%-17.94%。基于Meta回归价值转移标准模型估计了我国4类自然景观及10种游憩活动的日平均价值,初步建立了我国自然资源游憩价值评价的核算参考标准。最后,总结了我国提高自然资源游憩价值转移有效性和可靠性的经验,以及促进我国广泛、科学应用价值转移方法的政策建议。
The reasonable protection and effective utilization of natural resources cannot be achieved without economic valuation. From the1980s, along with consistently increasing demand of natural resources and valuation, foreign economists not only widely apply methodologies such as travel cost method and contingent valuation method to measure monetized values of natural resources, but also find a more convenient and economical natural resources valuation method-benefit transfer method, which has been widely applied in cost-benefit analysis and natural resources loss evaluation in public programs of many developed countries such as the US. Nowadays, China is still lack of research quantity and quality of natural resources recreation valuation by comparing with other developed countries. A systematic research and application of benefit transfer method is also rare in China. Since the limited quantity and quality of available researches of natural resources valuations, it has very important practical significance to establish a standardized benefit transfer model which can reflect China's current situation and to solve a series of techniques and methods of the efficiency and reliability of China's natural resources recreation benefit transfer models. Meanwhile, through the concrete application research of benefit transfer method, the paper finds the limiting factors in China and data differences between China and developed countries, gradually forms the methods for recreation value transfer system with China's characteristics, and enriches and perfects the theory of natural resources value evaluation. Therefore, the theoretical sense of the paper can not be overlooked.
The beginning of this research is based on a systematical summary of both domestic and international core studies on non-market resources valuation theories and methods, and established a theoretical framework and methodological system of benefit transfer in terms of basic concepts and theories, principles and methods, procedures and processes etc. It also includes some deep analysis and discussion on the connotation of benefits transfer efficiency and reliability, statistical validity testing methods. In order to provide theoretical and technical support while using benefit transfer method in an effective way, the research analyzed the elements and impact factors which have significant impacts on the statistical validity of meta-analysis benefit transfer model by establishing a regression model between transfer error and impact factors. Then, the research systematically analyzes the empirical data limitation of China's natural resources recreation valuation, and discovers specific barriers while using benefit transfer method by establishing meta-regression model and analyzing the statistical test results. Thus, it proposes a method to improve the benefit transfer consequence while using meta-regression model. In addition, the research studies how to utilize the results of recreation valuation in developed countries to establish a standard meta-regression benefit transfer model. This model has to be general and complied with China's actual situation in natural recreation valuation. The research also finds particularity and complexity while natural resource benefits are transferred from developed countries to China as well as the impact of domestic and international data differences on model establishment and transfer efficiency. Through a targeted screening of international study sites research sampling, quality control of domestic policy sites samples as well as the adjustment and unification of different sample variables have been achieved. It effectively reduces meta-regression benefit transfer error. The lowest out-of-sample benefit transfer error of international models is18.74%. By comparing with average transfer errors based on China's empirical study data, it is reduced by65%. Also, transfer error of natural resources recreation value reduces from a range27.47%-50.66%to0.35%-17.94%. Meta-regression benefit transfer models are used to predict daily average consumer surplus of4types of natural resources and10types of recreation activities in China. These predicted values can be used as reference standard in natural recreation value estimation. At the end of the research, it concludes experiences of improving the validity and reliability of China's natural resources recreation benefits transfer models and gives some recommendations of how to promote a wide range of scientific applications of benefit transfer method.
引文
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