废弃物循环利用系统物质代谢分析模型及其应用
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摘要
物质流动和循环是社会代谢过程的表征,也是自然生态系统和人类社会经济系统进行交互的重要手段。人类工业化和城市化进程的加速打破了人类社会经济系统与自然生态系统的协调相容,资源的大量消耗和废弃物的肆意排放对自然生态系统形成了巨大的生态包袱。从可持续发展的视角上看,随着人类社会经济系统技术水平的不断提高,废弃物正作为一种资源的替代品逐渐被人类加以利用。因此,研究我国废弃物物质代谢模式,对于缓解因废弃物排放所导致的环境问题和因资源无序开采所导致的资源短缺问题都具有重要的意义。
本研究在物质代谢和产业生态学理论框架下,在分析我国废弃物循环利用系统的物质代谢特征的基础上,扩展了传统经济系统物质流分析方法和投入产出分析方法,建立了废物流分析方法(Waste Flow Analysis, WFA)和废弃物代谢投入产出分析方法(Waste Metabolism Input Output Anlysis, WMIO),并结合宏观经济计量模型,情景分析方法,生命周期分析方法、成本收益分析方法、能值分析方法和灵敏度分析方法,构建了废弃物循环利用系统物质代谢分析模型(Waste Recycling System Material Metabolism Analysis,WRSMM),以研究废弃物循环利用系统的物质代谢过程。在分析基准年2005年我国废弃物物质代谢模式的基础上,对2005-2030年我国废弃物循环利用系统可能的演化模式进行了情景预测。同时,本研究以秸秆为例,对废弃物的循环路径选择问题进行了进一步探讨。
对于废弃物循环利用系统的分析表明,我国废弃循环利用系统当前还存在着资源生产率低,循环利用率不高,循环利用水平低下等问题。产业结构、产品结构调整和技术水平变化都会对废弃物物质代谢模式产生重要影响,其中减量化技术对废弃物物质代谢模式的影响尤为深刻。对于废弃物循环利用路径选择的研究表明,废弃物循环利用的路径选择主要依赖于决策者的目标,而当前决策者对于废弃物循环利用所关注的目标主要包括了污染物减排效益、经济效益、减碳效益和能源效益。在不同的目标组合下,废弃物循环利用的路径会发生变化,但在这个政策调控过程中,市场的力量同样需要考虑在内。
Material flows and cycles are important form of expression about social metabolism processes, which are also important forms of communication between the natural ecosystem and social economic system of human beings. Since the industrialization and urbanization processes accompanied with resource excessive consumption and environmental pollution emissions broke the harmonious development and dynamic equilibrium between the natural ecosystem and social economic system of human beings, large ecological rucksacks have been formed on the natural ecosystem. From the perspective of sustainable development, waste is being treated as an alternative of nature resource by human beings. In this opinion, it is important to study the waste metabolism modes of China to solve resource shortage and environmental pollution problems.
Based on the theory of Material Metabolism and Industrial Ecology, this thesis analysis the characteristics of waste recycling system of China and extends conventional frameworks of material flow analysis and input-output analysis to establish new frameworks of waste flow analysis and waste metabolism input-output analysis. With these two important modules, this thesis establishes the Waste Recycling System Material Metabolism Analysis (WRSMM) model to study the waste metabolism processes through the waste recycling system of China by an integration of macro-econometric forecast model, scenario analysis method, life cycle assessment method, cost benefit anlysis method, emergy analysis method and sensitivity analysis method. An integrated assessment of waste metabolism mode of waste recycling system of China is developed as a basic study, with 2005 as the base year. Then the possible evolution patterns of waste recycling system of China are simulated. Meanwhile, this study also discusses the pathway choice of waste recycling system, using crop resiudes as a case.
The results of analyse of status quo analysis present that the low-level resource productivity and cyclical use rate problems still exist in the waste recycling system of China. The adjustment of industrial structure and product mix and the technological advances have effects on the mode of waste metabolism, while the development of waste reduction technologies affects the mode most availably.
The result of pathway choice study present that it is the policy targets which determine the pathway of waste flows planned by decision makers. A summary of the possible aspects of waste management targets in different countries includes the environmental pollution elimination benefit, economic benefit, global warming potential elimination benefit and energy substitution benefit. Under multi-objective combination scenarios, the pathways of waste flows will change according to the policy targets, but in this process, the infection of the market mechanism should be also considered.
本研究在物质代谢和产业生态学理论框架下,在分析我国废弃物循环利用系统的物质代谢特征的基础上,扩展了传统经济系统物质流分析方法和投入产出分析方法,建立了废物流分析方法(Waste Flow Analysis, WFA)和废弃物代谢投入产出分析方法(Waste Metabolism Input Output Anlysis, WMIO),并结合宏观经济计量模型,情景分析方法,生命周期分析方法、成本收益分析方法、能值分析方法和灵敏度分析方法,构建了废弃物循环利用系统物质代谢分析模型(Waste Recycling System Material Metabolism Analysis,WRSMM),以研究废弃物循环利用系统的物质代谢过程。在分析基准年2005年我国废弃物物质代谢模式的基础上,对2005-2030年我国废弃物循环利用系统可能的演化模式进行了情景预测。同时,本研究以秸秆为例,对废弃物的循环路径选择问题进行了进一步探讨。
对于废弃物循环利用系统的分析表明,我国废弃循环利用系统当前还存在着资源生产率低,循环利用率不高,循环利用水平低下等问题。产业结构、产品结构调整和技术水平变化都会对废弃物物质代谢模式产生重要影响,其中减量化技术对废弃物物质代谢模式的影响尤为深刻。对于废弃物循环利用路径选择的研究表明,废弃物循环利用的路径选择主要依赖于决策者的目标,而当前决策者对于废弃物循环利用所关注的目标主要包括了污染物减排效益、经济效益、减碳效益和能源效益。在不同的目标组合下,废弃物循环利用的路径会发生变化,但在这个政策调控过程中,市场的力量同样需要考虑在内。
Material flows and cycles are important form of expression about social metabolism processes, which are also important forms of communication between the natural ecosystem and social economic system of human beings. Since the industrialization and urbanization processes accompanied with resource excessive consumption and environmental pollution emissions broke the harmonious development and dynamic equilibrium between the natural ecosystem and social economic system of human beings, large ecological rucksacks have been formed on the natural ecosystem. From the perspective of sustainable development, waste is being treated as an alternative of nature resource by human beings. In this opinion, it is important to study the waste metabolism modes of China to solve resource shortage and environmental pollution problems.
Based on the theory of Material Metabolism and Industrial Ecology, this thesis analysis the characteristics of waste recycling system of China and extends conventional frameworks of material flow analysis and input-output analysis to establish new frameworks of waste flow analysis and waste metabolism input-output analysis. With these two important modules, this thesis establishes the Waste Recycling System Material Metabolism Analysis (WRSMM) model to study the waste metabolism processes through the waste recycling system of China by an integration of macro-econometric forecast model, scenario analysis method, life cycle assessment method, cost benefit anlysis method, emergy analysis method and sensitivity analysis method. An integrated assessment of waste metabolism mode of waste recycling system of China is developed as a basic study, with 2005 as the base year. Then the possible evolution patterns of waste recycling system of China are simulated. Meanwhile, this study also discusses the pathway choice of waste recycling system, using crop resiudes as a case.
The results of analyse of status quo analysis present that the low-level resource productivity and cyclical use rate problems still exist in the waste recycling system of China. The adjustment of industrial structure and product mix and the technological advances have effects on the mode of waste metabolism, while the development of waste reduction technologies affects the mode most availably.
The result of pathway choice study present that it is the policy targets which determine the pathway of waste flows planned by decision makers. A summary of the possible aspects of waste management targets in different countries includes the environmental pollution elimination benefit, economic benefit, global warming potential elimination benefit and energy substitution benefit. Under multi-objective combination scenarios, the pathways of waste flows will change according to the policy targets, but in this process, the infection of the market mechanism should be also considered.
引文
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