投机消费及其经济影响研究
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摘要
投机消费即消费者为了获得额外收益而产生的消费,是现实生活中普遍存在的一种消费方式。它对消费者个人的选择、企业的经营活动以及国家的宏观经济运行都有重大影响。但是这种消费方式,不仅被理论经济学、应用经济学的研究忽视,而且也被政府的决策部门忽视。本文在吸收前人研究成果的基础上,描述并研究了这一消费方式,提出其概念,分析其特点,剖析其动因,划分其类型。以典型的投机消费的分析为框架,研究了投机消费作用于经济活动的机理,探索了投机消费对经济的影响,提出了引导投机消费、稳定经济增长的政策建议。本文的基本观点有:
投机消费是现实生活中普遍存在的一种消费方式。研究投机消费能为宏观经济理论寻找微观基础,为宏、微观经济决策提供理论依据,这对于消费者的选择、企业的经营活动、国家的宏观经济运行,都具有非常重要的意义。
消费理论的发展从不同的角度可以分为不同的发展阶段。从研究投机消费的角度,大体可以将消费理论的发展分为四个发展时期,并相应地产生了朴素的消费思想、节俭积累消费理论、选择性消费理论、不确定性消费理论。
投机消费是消费者为获得额外收益而进行的消费。这种消费是依附于正常消费、以取得额外收益为目的的,尽管它会给消费者带来收益,但它与投资不同。投机消费是具有收益产出能力的消费,安排这种消费要考虑消费成本与收益的比较、时间上的提前或延迟、空间上的转移、商品选择上的转换。投机消费需求弹性较大,具有较强的不确定性和风险性。投机消费产生于人们规避损失,追逐利益的内在冲动,同时也是人们避免遗憾,实现自我价值的一种方式。消费者可以权衡消费选择,进行投机消费,以获得最大的收益。投机消费是可以开发利用的消费,如果制度设置合理,这种消费就能很好地为社会发展服务。根据不同的划分标准,投机消费可分为当期投机消费和跨期投机消费;同质产品的投机消费和差别产品的投机消费;同区域的投机消费和跨区域的投机消费;基于技术进步的投机消费和技术不变的投机消费;基于价格预期的投机消费和价格不变的投机消费,等等。
基于价格预期的投机消费是由预期价格变化产生的、消费者重新选择商品或服务以获得最大收益的消费。价格变化会改变消费者的预算约束,从而改变消费者获得的效用,导致投机消费。投机消费受消费的主体因素、客体因素、宏观因素和不确定因素等因素的影响。投机消费作为消费行为的一种方式,最终可归结为在一定的收入预算条件下如何实现消费者效用最大化的问题。投机消费的收益是不确定的。在不确定性条件下,消费者的选择更为复杂。
消费者在购买网络产品从而加入某个经济网络时,往往并不能准确评估网络产品所具有的网络效应及其带来的效用水平,从而使其消费行为显示出投机特性。消费者购买网络产品的消费行为面临三个方面的不确定性,产生这些不确定性的原因包括消费者对网络规模估计的有限理性,消费者对网络成长路径的有限理性以及消费者“首尝”消费所面临的有限理性。网络消费者由于对网络规模的有限理性将导致其在消费选择过程中既可能面对额外的正效用,也可能收到意外的负效用,并且这些效用通常具有不同的性质,有的可以给消费者带来实质的伤害,有些则只会导致心理层面的失望情绪。消费者对网络效用函数和网络成长过程的有限理性,同样会给网络消费者带来投机消费的体验,只是各种体验的前提和条件有所不同。
投机消费会对国民经济产生重要的影响。一般说来,正常消费相对稳定,消费波动在很大程度上来自投机消费。消费政策的任务就是引导消费,充分发挥投机消费对经济的有利作用,避免其对宏观经济产生不良的影响。
Speculative consumption happens when the consumer's intention is to earn additional profits. It is a quotidian phenomenon in our lives nowadays, and it becomes more and more important to the consumers' choices, the operating activities and the macroeconomic operations. Based on the researches of predecessors, I bring forward the concept, the characteristics, the motivity and the types of Speculative consumption. By studying the typical speculative consumption, I do some research on the affection of Speculative consumption on economy activities and macroeconomic fluctuation. Then I draw a brief conclusion and give some advices on guiding Speculative consumption and ironing the economic fluctuation. The main points of this paper are listed as below:
Speculative consumption is so ubiquitous that studying this kind of consume can provide the micro-foundation for macroeconomic theory, supply the theoretical basis for economic decisions and be important for microcosmic decision-making, the enterprise management and the government macro-control.
The development of consumption theory can be divided into four steps. These are the consumption theory, the conservation consumption theory, the selective consumption theory, the uncertain consumption theory.
The goal of Speculative consumption is to earn additional proceeds, but it is different from investment. In order to earn additional proceeds, Speculative consumption can be carried out by changing the consumption time, the consumption place or the commodity itself. Therefore, the Speculative consumption is rich in elasticity of demand, thus it has more uncertainty and riskiness. The initial aim of Speculative consumption is to earn additional interests or to avoid losing, also it can realize the self-value. Consumers would like to trade-off the different consume choices and maximize the revenue. If we reasonably develop and utilize the Speculative consumption, it will contribute the economy growth. According to the different rules, the Speculative consumption can be identified into different types, such as homochronous consumption or Inter-temporal consumption, the same commodity consumption or the different commodity consumption, the same district consumption or the different district consumption, consumption considering or no considering the technical improvement, consumption considering or no considering the price change, etc.
The Speculative consumption, basing on the price change, is that when the consumer has the anticipation of price changing he will change the choice of commodity or service to achieve more utility. The reason is that the changed price has changed the consumer's budget, and this will change the consumer's utility. All the factors including the consumer, the commodity, the macroeconomics and some uncertain factors will affect the Speculative consumption. The reason is that the consumer wants to earn additional profits, but the consumption will change due to the uncertainty of over consumption or sluggish consumption.
It is hard for consumer to evaluate the network effect and utility he will get when he try to buy a network production, so this kind of consumption is provided with uncertain character. The uncertainty has three aspects. The first is the limited knowledge of network size; the second is the limited knowledge of network development mode; the third is the limited knowledge of "the first consume" of the network production. The uncertainty of network size would bring the consumer with additional utility or losing utility. In the same way, the limited knowledge of network function and network development mode will bring the consumer the same result.
Speculative consumption can induce significant economic fluctuation. Generally speaking, consuming fluctuate comes mainly from speculative consumption because the common consumption is steady. One main goals of macroeconomic policy is to strengthen the active effect and avoid the negative effect of consumption fluctuate.
投机消费是现实生活中普遍存在的一种消费方式。研究投机消费能为宏观经济理论寻找微观基础,为宏、微观经济决策提供理论依据,这对于消费者的选择、企业的经营活动、国家的宏观经济运行,都具有非常重要的意义。
消费理论的发展从不同的角度可以分为不同的发展阶段。从研究投机消费的角度,大体可以将消费理论的发展分为四个发展时期,并相应地产生了朴素的消费思想、节俭积累消费理论、选择性消费理论、不确定性消费理论。
投机消费是消费者为获得额外收益而进行的消费。这种消费是依附于正常消费、以取得额外收益为目的的,尽管它会给消费者带来收益,但它与投资不同。投机消费是具有收益产出能力的消费,安排这种消费要考虑消费成本与收益的比较、时间上的提前或延迟、空间上的转移、商品选择上的转换。投机消费需求弹性较大,具有较强的不确定性和风险性。投机消费产生于人们规避损失,追逐利益的内在冲动,同时也是人们避免遗憾,实现自我价值的一种方式。消费者可以权衡消费选择,进行投机消费,以获得最大的收益。投机消费是可以开发利用的消费,如果制度设置合理,这种消费就能很好地为社会发展服务。根据不同的划分标准,投机消费可分为当期投机消费和跨期投机消费;同质产品的投机消费和差别产品的投机消费;同区域的投机消费和跨区域的投机消费;基于技术进步的投机消费和技术不变的投机消费;基于价格预期的投机消费和价格不变的投机消费,等等。
基于价格预期的投机消费是由预期价格变化产生的、消费者重新选择商品或服务以获得最大收益的消费。价格变化会改变消费者的预算约束,从而改变消费者获得的效用,导致投机消费。投机消费受消费的主体因素、客体因素、宏观因素和不确定因素等因素的影响。投机消费作为消费行为的一种方式,最终可归结为在一定的收入预算条件下如何实现消费者效用最大化的问题。投机消费的收益是不确定的。在不确定性条件下,消费者的选择更为复杂。
消费者在购买网络产品从而加入某个经济网络时,往往并不能准确评估网络产品所具有的网络效应及其带来的效用水平,从而使其消费行为显示出投机特性。消费者购买网络产品的消费行为面临三个方面的不确定性,产生这些不确定性的原因包括消费者对网络规模估计的有限理性,消费者对网络成长路径的有限理性以及消费者“首尝”消费所面临的有限理性。网络消费者由于对网络规模的有限理性将导致其在消费选择过程中既可能面对额外的正效用,也可能收到意外的负效用,并且这些效用通常具有不同的性质,有的可以给消费者带来实质的伤害,有些则只会导致心理层面的失望情绪。消费者对网络效用函数和网络成长过程的有限理性,同样会给网络消费者带来投机消费的体验,只是各种体验的前提和条件有所不同。
投机消费会对国民经济产生重要的影响。一般说来,正常消费相对稳定,消费波动在很大程度上来自投机消费。消费政策的任务就是引导消费,充分发挥投机消费对经济的有利作用,避免其对宏观经济产生不良的影响。
Speculative consumption happens when the consumer's intention is to earn additional profits. It is a quotidian phenomenon in our lives nowadays, and it becomes more and more important to the consumers' choices, the operating activities and the macroeconomic operations. Based on the researches of predecessors, I bring forward the concept, the characteristics, the motivity and the types of Speculative consumption. By studying the typical speculative consumption, I do some research on the affection of Speculative consumption on economy activities and macroeconomic fluctuation. Then I draw a brief conclusion and give some advices on guiding Speculative consumption and ironing the economic fluctuation. The main points of this paper are listed as below:
Speculative consumption is so ubiquitous that studying this kind of consume can provide the micro-foundation for macroeconomic theory, supply the theoretical basis for economic decisions and be important for microcosmic decision-making, the enterprise management and the government macro-control.
The development of consumption theory can be divided into four steps. These are the consumption theory, the conservation consumption theory, the selective consumption theory, the uncertain consumption theory.
The goal of Speculative consumption is to earn additional proceeds, but it is different from investment. In order to earn additional proceeds, Speculative consumption can be carried out by changing the consumption time, the consumption place or the commodity itself. Therefore, the Speculative consumption is rich in elasticity of demand, thus it has more uncertainty and riskiness. The initial aim of Speculative consumption is to earn additional interests or to avoid losing, also it can realize the self-value. Consumers would like to trade-off the different consume choices and maximize the revenue. If we reasonably develop and utilize the Speculative consumption, it will contribute the economy growth. According to the different rules, the Speculative consumption can be identified into different types, such as homochronous consumption or Inter-temporal consumption, the same commodity consumption or the different commodity consumption, the same district consumption or the different district consumption, consumption considering or no considering the technical improvement, consumption considering or no considering the price change, etc.
The Speculative consumption, basing on the price change, is that when the consumer has the anticipation of price changing he will change the choice of commodity or service to achieve more utility. The reason is that the changed price has changed the consumer's budget, and this will change the consumer's utility. All the factors including the consumer, the commodity, the macroeconomics and some uncertain factors will affect the Speculative consumption. The reason is that the consumer wants to earn additional profits, but the consumption will change due to the uncertainty of over consumption or sluggish consumption.
It is hard for consumer to evaluate the network effect and utility he will get when he try to buy a network production, so this kind of consumption is provided with uncertain character. The uncertainty has three aspects. The first is the limited knowledge of network size; the second is the limited knowledge of network development mode; the third is the limited knowledge of "the first consume" of the network production. The uncertainty of network size would bring the consumer with additional utility or losing utility. In the same way, the limited knowledge of network function and network development mode will bring the consumer the same result.
Speculative consumption can induce significant economic fluctuation. Generally speaking, consuming fluctuate comes mainly from speculative consumption because the common consumption is steady. One main goals of macroeconomic policy is to strengthen the active effect and avoid the negative effect of consumption fluctuate.
引文
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