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在华FDI空间分布研究
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摘要
自德国学者杜能提出农业区位论以来,有关企业如何选择区位才能获得最大经济效益的问题成为学术界不断探索的焦点之一。伴随国际直接投资行为的日益加深,学者们开始对国际直接投资行为的动机展开广泛研究,其中尤为重要的一点即为FDI区位选择的依据。虽然目前尚未形成统一的国际直接投资区位选择理论,但是在产业空间布局理论中对企业区位选择的研究,以及国际直接投资理论中渗透着的区位思想,仍对FDI区位选择具有重要的理论与实践意义。为进一步在实践中探索FDI空间分布的规律,大量国内外学者选取不同投资国和东道国作为研究对象进行实证研究。在国际研究中,多利用FDI企业及东道国数据进行研究,并将东道国视为同质区域,而中国区域发展的不均衡性使FDI企业的区位选择更具多样性,FDI空间分布的相关研究也因此更为复杂。本文探讨了各主要影响因素对FDI在中国空间分布中的作用机理,并尝试从多个角度检验这些影响因素的作用效果,从理论与实践两个层面探索并论证哪些因素在哪些区域对FDI有吸引作用,并就如何继续改善投资环境以吸引高质量外资提出政策建议,供政策制定者参考。
     首先,本文通过对产业空间布局和国际直接投资理论以及国内外相关文献进行了系统的梳理,提出FDI在中国空间分布的影响因素作用机制。在华FDI主要受政策因素、市场条件因素、集聚因素和社会环境因素的影响而呈现空间异质性。政府通过实施空间准入、市场准入、行业准入等开放政策,以及外资的优惠与限制政策,加之需求结构调整、供给结构调整和完善保护措施等普适性政策吸引、引导并约束FDI;市场需求规模和市场活力反映出消费者偏好异质性,带来FDI产业异质性,进而体现为FDI企业空间异质性;集聚因素通过协同效应和正外部经济对FDI产生吸引作用,而其产生的负外部经济则对FDI产生挤出效应,同时,FDI的自我集聚效应能够加深区域集聚程度,与区域产业集聚形成循环累积系统;而政府服务效率、人文地理环境和城市化水平作为对FDI产生较大影响的社会环境因素也对FDI的空间分布产生向心力或离心力。
     其次,本文对中国利用外资演进历程、FDI在中国整体演进趋势和FDI在中国区域分布变动趋势进行了梳理和探讨。自1979年中国利用外资伊始至今可以大体划分为三个阶段,即起步阶段、飞速展开阶段及稳步推进与调整阶段。伴随三个阶段的推进,中国持续提高对FDI的政策引导和规范。在总量方面,独资经营FDI比重日益增加,合资经营FDI比重不断下降;FDI的行业呈多样化态势,主要分布在第二产业和第三产业,且行业之间FDI的分布存在较大差异;FDI来源地呈多元化态势,且相对集中,FDI金额稳步上升。在FDI空间分布方面,各区域FDI金额均呈现明显增长,但区域之间和区域内部的FDI分布和增长趋势均呈现明显差异;本文认为城市利用FDI在各区域的分布显示较强的集聚特性,多集中于东部地区和区域内主要城市,而以全国为视角则呈现分散性,多集中于直辖市、省会城市和相对发达的其他地级市。
     再次,本文基于上述机制论述与现状分析,选取相关面板数据,构建理论模型,实证检验各影响因素对FDI在中国空间分布的作用效果。本文选取2002-2011年中国252个地级及以上城市层面数据,从四个角度对FDI空间分布的影响因素进行实证检验,即全时段全区域、分时段全区域、全时段分区域及全时段分发达程度。通过较为细致的实证检验,本文阐述了各影响因素在不同时段和不同区域对FDI空间分布造成的不同影响。结果显示,伴随中国各区域经济的发展和FDI产业升级,优惠政策和各种开放政策对FDI的吸引已不再明显,逐渐凸显出普适性政策对FDI的影响;FDI开始提高对劳动力素质的要求,廉价的低素质劳动力已不再是吸引FDI的区位优势;对于各地区而言,集聚程度仍是吸引FDI的重要因素;同时,贸易障碍对FDI呈负影响。
     最后,本文根据理论原理和实证检验结果,针对中国区域异质性提出可持续性引资政策建议:强化普适性政策执行度,持续优化投资环境;优化区域产业结构,提高FDI在华根植性;提高劳动力整体素质,重拾劳动力优势。
Since German scholar Thünen proposed the agricultural location theory, the issuethat how to choose a location that is beneficial firm to gain the maximum economicinterests become one of the focus in academic circles. In pace with international directinvestment action deepened, scholars launch extensive research on its motives. One ofthe most important is the basis of FDI location decision. Although the uniformedlocation decision has not formed yet, the studies of enterprise location decision inspatial distribution of industry theory and the location thought in FDI theory are oftheoretical and realistic significance to location decision. In order to go further in thelaw of FDI spatial distribution, numorous scholars have carried out empirical studiesbased on different investment and host countries. Most of studies on an internationalscale that use firm level and host coutries level datas regard host coutry ashomogeneous region. But the situation of FDI spatial distribution are more complexdue to the malconformation of economic development in China. This dissertationdiscussed the mechanism of FDI spatial distribution main factors in China, and triedto verify the effect of factors from multiple perspectives,and then demonstrate thefactors that can attract FDI in different regions from theoretical and practical level.According to above all, put forward policy suggestions that continue to improveinvestment environment and attract high quality FDI for policy maker reference.
     First, the theory of spatial distribution of industry and FDI and relevant literaturesfrom domestic and oversea has been reviewed and classified systematically, andpropose the mechanism of factors of FDI spatial distribution in China. FDIdemonstrates spatial heterogeneity under the influence of policy, market, cluster andsocial eviroment in China. Government attracts and restrains FDI by carrying outopen policy that includes spatial admittance, market admittance, industry admittance,preferential and restriction policy, combines with universality policy that includesadjustment of demand and supply structure, and improvement of protection measures.Market demand scale and market vigour can reflect consumer preferencesheterogeneity that lead to FDI industry heterogeneity and FDI spatial distributionheterogeneity. Cluster can attract FDI by synergistic effect and positive externaleconomy. And negative external economy of cluster may bring extrusion effect to FDI.Additonally, FDI self agglomeration can improve region cluster level and formcircular and cumulative system. The government service efficiency, cultural and geographical environment and urbanization level can roduce centripetal force andcentrifugal force to FDI as the most important factors.
     Secondly, this dissertation reviewed and discuss the evolution course, evolutiontrend and spatial distribution of FDI in China. Since China began to utilize FDI in1979, there are three stages, include primary stage, rapid expansion stage and steadilyadjustment stage. With the advancement of three stages, China continous to improvemeasures that guide and standardize FDI. On amount aspect, the proportion of soleproprietorship has increased and joint venture has declined; the industries of FDIdemonstrates diversification trend, and most of FDI is part of secondary industry andtertiary industry, and there are large differences of FDI in different industries; thesource of FDI demonstrates diversification trend and relatively centralized, FDI hassteadily rised. On FDI spatial distribution aspect, FDI has significantly increased in allregion, and there is large differences among regions. This dissertation provided theFDI gravity coordinates by calculated from urban level over the years. This result candraw conclusions that FDI in urban shows strong agglomeration features in eatencities and major cities of regions in region view; and shows dispersibility in nationalview.
     Thirdly, according to mechanism explanation and situation analysis, thisdissertation selected and used relavent panel datas, built the theoretical model andverified the influence factors on the effect of the spatial distribution of FDI in Chinaempirically. Study based on252prefecture–level and above cities during2002-2011period on four perspectives, included and integrity area, period of time and integrityarea, full period and regions, and full period in different development levles. Througha detailed empirical verified, the result showed that preferential policies and all kindsof the open policies will not attract FDI, and universality polities become more andmore important to FDI attraction; FDI firms begin to improve requirements of labourforce quality, the attraction of cheap and low-quality to FDI has not obvious; andagglomeration level is still an important factor in attracting FDI; and trade barrierproduces negative effect to FDI.
     Finally, according to the principle of theory and empirical results, this dissertationaimed at how China in geographical location and economic development level ofdifferent regional sustainability attracting FDI policy recommendations.
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    1因1994年和1995年数据未经统计,故未列入表中。
    1因1994年和1995年数据未经统计,故未列入表中。
    2受数据所限,本章仅对2006-2012年期间按方式分类的FDI项目做以归纳整理。
    1由于国家统计年鉴中在2004年前后对实际利用外资行业分类方法不同,因此本文在按行业整理数据时分列两表,即分为1997-2003年和2004-2012年两个时段;在按产业整理数据时仅用一表。
    1有关252个城市的选取依据将在第5章详细说明。
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