河南省近49年来降水和气温变化特征研究
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摘要
气候变化,尤其是极端气候事件的频发给人类的生产生活带来了巨大影响,造成重大财产损失,研究其变化趋势具有十分重要的意义。本文以河南省1961-2009年期间的逐日降水、温度资料为基础,利用趋势分析、滑动平均、滑动t检验、克里金插值、小波分析、Mann-Kendall检验和相关分析等分析方法,细致研究了河南省降水和温度的多时间尺度特征、空间分布特征、周期变化、突变特征、极端气候变化特征以及温度与降水之间的相关性。
论文主要得出以下：
1.①河南省年降水量呈不显著的减少趋势,呈现出明显的年际和年代际变化,20世纪60年代、80年代和90年代末到本世纪初,年降水量波动较大,其余年份相对平稳。四季降水量变化特点各异,春季和秋季降水量呈减少趋势,夏季和冬季呈相反趋势,其中夏季降水量变化较其他季节更显著,年降水量呈东部增加,西部减少趋势。②河南省大部分地区年降水日数变化呈减少趋势,四季降水日数变化呈现出不同的特点,春季和秋季降水日数变化呈减少趋势,夏季和冬季相反。河南西部和北部地区减少趋势较大。③年平均降水量与降水日数都存在2a和4a的主周期,季节尺度上降水量与降水日数的主周期范围在2-4a,在70-90年代存在6-8a的周期,降水量在年尺度上不存在显著突变点,春季降水量从多到少的突变年份1992年。降水日数在1990年出现由多到少的突变,春季降水日数减少的突变点是1997年,秋季降水日数减少的突变点是1970年。
2.①年尺度上,平均气温和平均最高(低)气温都呈现出显著地上升趋势。季尺度上,春季各温度要素的上升趋势明显,夏季平均气温与日最高气温则呈现减小趋势,秋季各温度要素呈增加趋势,冬季变化趋势不显著。气温变化在月尺度上与季节尺度保持一致。除日最高气温在夏季呈现下降趋势外,其余各要素总体呈现上升趋势,这与全球变暖的气候背景相一致。空间分布上看,年均气温增加趋势较大的区域主要在河南东部和中部地区,春季河南南部地区变化趋势大于北部地区；夏季,河南地区平均气温从东北到西南减小趋势逐渐变大；秋季和冬季的气温要素都呈现出增加趋势,其特征表现为从西到东增加幅度逐渐增大。②年尺度上,气温要素的主周期范围在2-6a范围内,季节尺度上存在4a的主周期,年平均气温在1997年发生显著突变,自1997年之后全省平均气温显著上升。最高气温和最低气温在1997年前后也表现出相同的突变；春季,在2001年前后存在气温要素由低到高的突变；冬季在1991年前后也存在气温要素由低到高的突变。
3.①研究区域的极端总降水量有倾向率为1.2mm/10a的增加趋势,极端降水日数的变化趋势不显著,河南中东部地区是极端降水事件发生频率增加趋势较大的地区。同时河南中部地区也是最长无降水日数增加趋势较显著的地区。②河南地区的极端高温事件在研究时间范围内呈现出了明显的先减后增的趋势,增加趋势较大的地区主要分布在河南西部。极端低温事件呈现出明显的持续减小趋势,空间分布呈现出从西到东减少趋势逐渐增强的特征。
4.河南地区的年、季节和月降水量与气温之间的相关性分析表明：年平均降水量与气温之间存在显著的相关性,其相关度为中度相关。春季、夏季和秋季的平均降水量与平均气温之间也存在显著的相关性,其相关系数都大于0.3。一、五、六、七、八、九、十、十一月的月平均气温与月平均降水量之间表现为中度相关,其回归方程的P值显示达到了0.01的显著水平。
The change of climate, especially the extreme weather often bring large disasters to human life and economy, so it is important to study their change trends and forecast its future changes. Based on the data of daily temperature and precipitation of17stations in Henan province1961to2009, the distribution characteristics of the climate reference values in Henan Province were analyzed, such as year, quarter and month average temperature and precipitation. The spatial distribution characteristics of the maximum, minimum temperature and maximum daily precipitation and the correlation between average temperature and precipitation from1961-2009were analyzed in this paper by using many analytical methods, such as linear trend, moving average, moving t test, Kriging method, wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall and correlation analysis. The major conclusions were as follows:
1. The annual precipitation and precipitation days decreased in the past49years. Except in1970s, the annual precipitation changed dramatically every10years from1961to2009. Precipitation and precipitation days in springs and autumns showeded declined trends, while that in summers and winters increased. The annual and seasonal variation of precipitation days had a decreased tendency during the past49-years. The precipitation days in spring and autumn showed an increase trend, while that in summer and winter decreased. The cycle analysis and mutation analysis of the meteorological elements showed that there was a2-4-year periodic oscillation in the change of annual precipitation and precipitation days. Seasonal precipitation and precipitation featured a2-4-year periodic oscillation in the span of49years and a6～8-year cyclic vibration in1970s-1990s. There were no abrupt changes on the time scale of precipitation except in the spring of1992. In1990s, the annual precipitation days experienced an abrupt change of abundant to short, while the spring and autumn precipitation days had an abrupt change of abundant to short in1997and1970respectively.
2. The annual mean temperature, annual lowest temperature and highest temperature demonstrate a significant increase trend. The mean temperature and lowest temperature in spring and autumn increased, with a not significant downward trend of mean temperature, lowest temperature and highest temperature in summer. The seasonal and month temperature elements had the same variation trend as annual temperature elements. All of the climate elements showed an increasing trend, except the daily highest temperature in summer. The annual mean temperature showed a obvious increase tendency in the east and middle Henan. The spring mean temperature in south Henan changed more sharply than north Henan. In summer, the trends of mean temperature decreased from northeast to southwest of research area. All of the climate elements showed an increasing trend in autumn and winter and the increasing scale of the east was higher than the west. Annual temperature elements have a2-year to6-year periodic oscillation and season temperature elements have a4-year periodic oscillation. The annual mean temperature had a significant mutation in1997and showed an increasing trend. After1997, the highest (lowest) temperatures had the same mutation. In2001, the mean temperature of spring experienced a mutation of abundant to high. The mean temperature of winter experienced a mutation of abundant to high in1991.
3. The spatial distribution of the meteorological elements:, the Henan extreme total precipitation was on increase, with a climatic tendency rate of1.2mm/lOa and the changes of extreme precipitation days were not significant. The frequencies of extreme precipitation events in middle Henan increased the most sharply, while the longest non-rainy days in middle Henan showed a more sharply increasing trend. Extreme high temperature events demonstrate a decrease to increase trend; in the west had a more upward trend than the other research area. The extreme low temperature events showed a decreasing trend, and the downward trend in west was larger then east.
4. The results of correlation analysis showed that the annual mean precipitation and mean temperature moderately correlated. The correlation coefficient between mean precipitation and mean temperature in spring, summer and winter were over than0.3, which means those also moderately correlated. The monthly mean precipitation had a moderate correlation with mean temperature of January, May, June, July, August, September, October and November (P<0.01).
论文主要得出以下：
1.①河南省年降水量呈不显著的减少趋势,呈现出明显的年际和年代际变化,20世纪60年代、80年代和90年代末到本世纪初,年降水量波动较大,其余年份相对平稳。四季降水量变化特点各异,春季和秋季降水量呈减少趋势,夏季和冬季呈相反趋势,其中夏季降水量变化较其他季节更显著,年降水量呈东部增加,西部减少趋势。②河南省大部分地区年降水日数变化呈减少趋势,四季降水日数变化呈现出不同的特点,春季和秋季降水日数变化呈减少趋势,夏季和冬季相反。河南西部和北部地区减少趋势较大。③年平均降水量与降水日数都存在2a和4a的主周期,季节尺度上降水量与降水日数的主周期范围在2-4a,在70-90年代存在6-8a的周期,降水量在年尺度上不存在显著突变点,春季降水量从多到少的突变年份1992年。降水日数在1990年出现由多到少的突变,春季降水日数减少的突变点是1997年,秋季降水日数减少的突变点是1970年。
2.①年尺度上,平均气温和平均最高(低)气温都呈现出显著地上升趋势。季尺度上,春季各温度要素的上升趋势明显,夏季平均气温与日最高气温则呈现减小趋势,秋季各温度要素呈增加趋势,冬季变化趋势不显著。气温变化在月尺度上与季节尺度保持一致。除日最高气温在夏季呈现下降趋势外,其余各要素总体呈现上升趋势,这与全球变暖的气候背景相一致。空间分布上看,年均气温增加趋势较大的区域主要在河南东部和中部地区,春季河南南部地区变化趋势大于北部地区；夏季,河南地区平均气温从东北到西南减小趋势逐渐变大；秋季和冬季的气温要素都呈现出增加趋势,其特征表现为从西到东增加幅度逐渐增大。②年尺度上,气温要素的主周期范围在2-6a范围内,季节尺度上存在4a的主周期,年平均气温在1997年发生显著突变,自1997年之后全省平均气温显著上升。最高气温和最低气温在1997年前后也表现出相同的突变；春季,在2001年前后存在气温要素由低到高的突变；冬季在1991年前后也存在气温要素由低到高的突变。
3.①研究区域的极端总降水量有倾向率为1.2mm/10a的增加趋势,极端降水日数的变化趋势不显著,河南中东部地区是极端降水事件发生频率增加趋势较大的地区。同时河南中部地区也是最长无降水日数增加趋势较显著的地区。②河南地区的极端高温事件在研究时间范围内呈现出了明显的先减后增的趋势,增加趋势较大的地区主要分布在河南西部。极端低温事件呈现出明显的持续减小趋势,空间分布呈现出从西到东减少趋势逐渐增强的特征。
4.河南地区的年、季节和月降水量与气温之间的相关性分析表明：年平均降水量与气温之间存在显著的相关性,其相关度为中度相关。春季、夏季和秋季的平均降水量与平均气温之间也存在显著的相关性,其相关系数都大于0.3。一、五、六、七、八、九、十、十一月的月平均气温与月平均降水量之间表现为中度相关,其回归方程的P值显示达到了0.01的显著水平。
The change of climate, especially the extreme weather often bring large disasters to human life and economy, so it is important to study their change trends and forecast its future changes. Based on the data of daily temperature and precipitation of17stations in Henan province1961to2009, the distribution characteristics of the climate reference values in Henan Province were analyzed, such as year, quarter and month average temperature and precipitation. The spatial distribution characteristics of the maximum, minimum temperature and maximum daily precipitation and the correlation between average temperature and precipitation from1961-2009were analyzed in this paper by using many analytical methods, such as linear trend, moving average, moving t test, Kriging method, wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall and correlation analysis. The major conclusions were as follows:
1. The annual precipitation and precipitation days decreased in the past49years. Except in1970s, the annual precipitation changed dramatically every10years from1961to2009. Precipitation and precipitation days in springs and autumns showeded declined trends, while that in summers and winters increased. The annual and seasonal variation of precipitation days had a decreased tendency during the past49-years. The precipitation days in spring and autumn showed an increase trend, while that in summer and winter decreased. The cycle analysis and mutation analysis of the meteorological elements showed that there was a2-4-year periodic oscillation in the change of annual precipitation and precipitation days. Seasonal precipitation and precipitation featured a2-4-year periodic oscillation in the span of49years and a6～8-year cyclic vibration in1970s-1990s. There were no abrupt changes on the time scale of precipitation except in the spring of1992. In1990s, the annual precipitation days experienced an abrupt change of abundant to short, while the spring and autumn precipitation days had an abrupt change of abundant to short in1997and1970respectively.
2. The annual mean temperature, annual lowest temperature and highest temperature demonstrate a significant increase trend. The mean temperature and lowest temperature in spring and autumn increased, with a not significant downward trend of mean temperature, lowest temperature and highest temperature in summer. The seasonal and month temperature elements had the same variation trend as annual temperature elements. All of the climate elements showed an increasing trend, except the daily highest temperature in summer. The annual mean temperature showed a obvious increase tendency in the east and middle Henan. The spring mean temperature in south Henan changed more sharply than north Henan. In summer, the trends of mean temperature decreased from northeast to southwest of research area. All of the climate elements showed an increasing trend in autumn and winter and the increasing scale of the east was higher than the west. Annual temperature elements have a2-year to6-year periodic oscillation and season temperature elements have a4-year periodic oscillation. The annual mean temperature had a significant mutation in1997and showed an increasing trend. After1997, the highest (lowest) temperatures had the same mutation. In2001, the mean temperature of spring experienced a mutation of abundant to high. The mean temperature of winter experienced a mutation of abundant to high in1991.
3. The spatial distribution of the meteorological elements:, the Henan extreme total precipitation was on increase, with a climatic tendency rate of1.2mm/lOa and the changes of extreme precipitation days were not significant. The frequencies of extreme precipitation events in middle Henan increased the most sharply, while the longest non-rainy days in middle Henan showed a more sharply increasing trend. Extreme high temperature events demonstrate a decrease to increase trend; in the west had a more upward trend than the other research area. The extreme low temperature events showed a decreasing trend, and the downward trend in west was larger then east.
4. The results of correlation analysis showed that the annual mean precipitation and mean temperature moderately correlated. The correlation coefficient between mean precipitation and mean temperature in spring, summer and winter were over than0.3, which means those also moderately correlated. The monthly mean precipitation had a moderate correlation with mean temperature of January, May, June, July, August, September, October and November (P<0.01).
引文
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