陕北黄土滑坡风险评价及监测预警技术方法研究
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摘要
黄土滑坡是一种在西北黄土高原区广泛发育的地质灾害。本文以陕北榆林子洲县、绥德县、延安宝塔区等地的黄土滑坡为研究对象，通过大量的野外调查和研究，分析了该类地质灾害的典型发育环境、诱发因素、变形破坏模式和风险特征。比较分析了黄土剥落、倾倒、崩塌、滑塌、滑坡、泥流等不同黄土滑坡类型的风险特征。
利用国际上近些年发展起来滑坡风险管理理论，结合研究区的实际，将黄土滑坡风险评价分为小比例尺、中比例尺、大比例尺和单体滑坡四个不同层次和精度，研究并厘清了易发性、危险性和风险评价的区别和联系，并以延安市宝塔区为例进行了实际的风险评价和区划工作。1:50000小比例尺风险评价适用于全区，以传统的栅格法为手段，采用评价指标的信息量模型进行计算而得；1:25000中比例尺风险评价适用于城区、新开发区或重点城镇，采用高精度DEM叠加Quick Bird遥感数据识别潜在易发坡体，圈画滑塌危险区界线，进行受险对象信息解译，野外核查验证等方法而得；1:10000大比例尺风险评价适用于重点坡段，采用边坡分级系统，依据打分法而得；>1:5000比例尺风险评价适用于单体滑坡，采用可靠度分析稳定性，分别计算财产风险、个体生命风险、群体生命风险而得。形成了一整套陕北黄土滑坡风险评价技术方法体系。
基于野外调查和观察，将降雨入渗诱发黄土滑坡的模式分为缓慢入渗型、入渗阻滞型和入渗贯通型三种，定性分析了各类黄土滑坡的降雨入渗过程和诱发机理。以陕北25个县（市、区）1960年~2008年的227个历史黄土滑坡和降雨资料为依据，采用相关性分析、Logistic回归等统计方法，分别研究并得到了三类入渗诱发模式下的黄土滑坡降雨临界值。
针对黄土剥落、倾倒、崩塌、滑塌、滑坡、泥流等不同的变形破坏特征，讨论了各类黄土滑坡监测手段和技术的适用性。研究了区域性降雨监测的原则和雨量站布设的方法，并以延安市宝塔区雨量监测为例进行了说明。研究了单体黄土滑坡的监测技术方法，并以宝塔山滑坡为例分析了四年的监测曲线，得出滑坡基本稳定的结论。
根据不同比例尺风险区划结果和三类降雨临界值研究结果，分别设定了预警指标和预警等级，开发了区域性预警计算分析模型。以延安市宝塔区为例，研究了县级地质灾害监测预警系统，将降雨量监测、各类单体滑坡监测、简易监测、人工巡查数据集成到系统中，对县级地质灾害预警分为小比例尺预警、中比例尺预警、大比例尺预警、单体隐患点预警四种不同的预警精度，设计了一个能够为县级国土资源主管部门提供技术支撑的地质灾害管理信息系统。
Loess landslide is a kind of geo-hazard which wildly developed in northwest loesspleatue. This thesis took the loess landslide in Zizhou county, Suide county and Baotadistrict in north of shaanxi province as the researching object. It investigated plenty ofloess landslides in the field, analyzed its typical geological environment, triggered factors,mode of deformation and failure, and characteristics of risk. It also analyzed the riskcharacteristics of loess spall, topple, fall, collapse, slide and earth flow comparatively.
It applied the international landslide risk management theory which were developedrecent years to the practice of study area, divided the risk assessment into four layer whichare small scale, middle scale, large scale and single landslide scale with different accuracyaccordingly. It distinguished the difference and relationship among susceptibility, hazardand risk, and did the case study using the landslide data from Yannan Baota area. The1:50000small scale risk assessment is appropriate for the whole area, it can be obtainedby the traditional griding and information value calculating method. The1:25000middlescale risk assessment is appropriate for the urban areas, economic development zones, orimportant towns, it can be obtained by following steps: firstly it identifies thesusceptibility area through overlying the high accuracy DEM and the Quick Bird remotesense image; secondly it circles the dangerous areas of the landslides; thirdly it interpretsthe elements in the risk; finally it makes the checks in the field. The1:10000large scalerisk assessment is appropriate for the important slope zones, it can be obtained bydesigning a slope's classifying system then scoring a grade to implement. The>1:5000scale risk assessment is appropriate for the single landslides, it can be obtained byanalyzing the stabilities through the reliability methods, and calculating the property lossrisk, individual life loss risk, and societal life loss risk respectively. For all it achieved asystem of risk assessment methods for north of Shannxi's loess landslides.
On the basis of field investigation and observation it preliminary established threerainfall infiltration and triggering modes which are slow-infiltration triggering mode,infiltration-blocked triggering mode and integrated-infiltration-passage triggering mode. Itanalyzed the rainfall infiltration process and loess landslide triggering mechanismsqualitatively. It collected227landslides cases which having certain date records andoccurred in1960~2008, divided these cases into three groups according to the modes,used correlation and logistics statistical methods to study the relationship betweenlandslides and rainfall, and established the rain thresholds for each infiltration andtriggering modes respectively.
It discussed the suitability of the monitoring methods and techniques according to thedeformation and failure features of the loess spall, topple, fall, collapse, slide and earthflow. It studied the layout principles of the rainfall stations in region and its installation methods, illustrated the rainfall monitor of Yannan Baota district. It studied the singleloess landslide' monitoring methods, took Baotashan landslide as the example, analyzed itsfour years monitor curve, and draw a conclusion that this landslide is still stable.
According to the results of risk zoning on a different scale and the thresholds in threecatalogues, it set the early-warning indexes and its levels, and developed the regionalearly-warning model. It took the Yannan Baota district as the example, studied thegeo-hazards monitoring and early-warning system that should suitable to a county. Itintegrated the rainfall monitors, single landslide monitors, simple equipment monitors andmanual inspections into the system, divided the county's early-warning into four levels assmall scale, middle scale, large scale and single landslide scale which have differentaccuracy respectively. Finally it designed a management system that can service thetechnical support for the county government to manage the geo-hazards.
利用国际上近些年发展起来滑坡风险管理理论，结合研究区的实际，将黄土滑坡风险评价分为小比例尺、中比例尺、大比例尺和单体滑坡四个不同层次和精度，研究并厘清了易发性、危险性和风险评价的区别和联系，并以延安市宝塔区为例进行了实际的风险评价和区划工作。1:50000小比例尺风险评价适用于全区，以传统的栅格法为手段，采用评价指标的信息量模型进行计算而得；1:25000中比例尺风险评价适用于城区、新开发区或重点城镇，采用高精度DEM叠加Quick Bird遥感数据识别潜在易发坡体，圈画滑塌危险区界线，进行受险对象信息解译，野外核查验证等方法而得；1:10000大比例尺风险评价适用于重点坡段，采用边坡分级系统，依据打分法而得；>1:5000比例尺风险评价适用于单体滑坡，采用可靠度分析稳定性，分别计算财产风险、个体生命风险、群体生命风险而得。形成了一整套陕北黄土滑坡风险评价技术方法体系。
基于野外调查和观察，将降雨入渗诱发黄土滑坡的模式分为缓慢入渗型、入渗阻滞型和入渗贯通型三种，定性分析了各类黄土滑坡的降雨入渗过程和诱发机理。以陕北25个县（市、区）1960年~2008年的227个历史黄土滑坡和降雨资料为依据，采用相关性分析、Logistic回归等统计方法，分别研究并得到了三类入渗诱发模式下的黄土滑坡降雨临界值。
针对黄土剥落、倾倒、崩塌、滑塌、滑坡、泥流等不同的变形破坏特征，讨论了各类黄土滑坡监测手段和技术的适用性。研究了区域性降雨监测的原则和雨量站布设的方法，并以延安市宝塔区雨量监测为例进行了说明。研究了单体黄土滑坡的监测技术方法，并以宝塔山滑坡为例分析了四年的监测曲线，得出滑坡基本稳定的结论。
根据不同比例尺风险区划结果和三类降雨临界值研究结果，分别设定了预警指标和预警等级，开发了区域性预警计算分析模型。以延安市宝塔区为例，研究了县级地质灾害监测预警系统，将降雨量监测、各类单体滑坡监测、简易监测、人工巡查数据集成到系统中，对县级地质灾害预警分为小比例尺预警、中比例尺预警、大比例尺预警、单体隐患点预警四种不同的预警精度，设计了一个能够为县级国土资源主管部门提供技术支撑的地质灾害管理信息系统。
Loess landslide is a kind of geo-hazard which wildly developed in northwest loesspleatue. This thesis took the loess landslide in Zizhou county, Suide county and Baotadistrict in north of shaanxi province as the researching object. It investigated plenty ofloess landslides in the field, analyzed its typical geological environment, triggered factors,mode of deformation and failure, and characteristics of risk. It also analyzed the riskcharacteristics of loess spall, topple, fall, collapse, slide and earth flow comparatively.
It applied the international landslide risk management theory which were developedrecent years to the practice of study area, divided the risk assessment into four layer whichare small scale, middle scale, large scale and single landslide scale with different accuracyaccordingly. It distinguished the difference and relationship among susceptibility, hazardand risk, and did the case study using the landslide data from Yannan Baota area. The1:50000small scale risk assessment is appropriate for the whole area, it can be obtainedby the traditional griding and information value calculating method. The1:25000middlescale risk assessment is appropriate for the urban areas, economic development zones, orimportant towns, it can be obtained by following steps: firstly it identifies thesusceptibility area through overlying the high accuracy DEM and the Quick Bird remotesense image; secondly it circles the dangerous areas of the landslides; thirdly it interpretsthe elements in the risk; finally it makes the checks in the field. The1:10000large scalerisk assessment is appropriate for the important slope zones, it can be obtained bydesigning a slope's classifying system then scoring a grade to implement. The>1:5000scale risk assessment is appropriate for the single landslides, it can be obtained byanalyzing the stabilities through the reliability methods, and calculating the property lossrisk, individual life loss risk, and societal life loss risk respectively. For all it achieved asystem of risk assessment methods for north of Shannxi's loess landslides.
On the basis of field investigation and observation it preliminary established threerainfall infiltration and triggering modes which are slow-infiltration triggering mode,infiltration-blocked triggering mode and integrated-infiltration-passage triggering mode. Itanalyzed the rainfall infiltration process and loess landslide triggering mechanismsqualitatively. It collected227landslides cases which having certain date records andoccurred in1960~2008, divided these cases into three groups according to the modes,used correlation and logistics statistical methods to study the relationship betweenlandslides and rainfall, and established the rain thresholds for each infiltration andtriggering modes respectively.
It discussed the suitability of the monitoring methods and techniques according to thedeformation and failure features of the loess spall, topple, fall, collapse, slide and earthflow. It studied the layout principles of the rainfall stations in region and its installation methods, illustrated the rainfall monitor of Yannan Baota district. It studied the singleloess landslide' monitoring methods, took Baotashan landslide as the example, analyzed itsfour years monitor curve, and draw a conclusion that this landslide is still stable.
According to the results of risk zoning on a different scale and the thresholds in threecatalogues, it set the early-warning indexes and its levels, and developed the regionalearly-warning model. It took the Yannan Baota district as the example, studied thegeo-hazards monitoring and early-warning system that should suitable to a county. Itintegrated the rainfall monitors, single landslide monitors, simple equipment monitors andmanual inspections into the system, divided the county's early-warning into four levels assmall scale, middle scale, large scale and single landslide scale which have differentaccuracy respectively. Finally it designed a management system that can service thetechnical support for the county government to manage the geo-hazards.
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