中国农产品比价形成及其变动规律研究
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摘要
农产品比价是两种相关联农产品价格的比值,是对两种产品相对收益变化的反映。从理论上分析农产品比价的形成机制,把握农产品比价变动的规律,分析农产品比价的影响因素,探讨农产品比价变化对农业生产结构的影响,对于政府制定农业产业发展政策、引导资源配置效率的改善、促进农民收入水平的增长具有重要的现实意义。针对农产品比价的形成机制及其呈现的规律,本文主要从如下五个方面展开：
第一,对农产品比价形成的理论和数理模型进行分析。按照作物在生产中的关系,通过把农产品比价分为资源竞争型和投入产出型两种类型,用两种农产品四个市场的局部均衡理论揭示农产品比价形成的机理。通过效用函数和生产函数,以消费者效用最大化为目标,分析农产品比价决定的影响因素。
第二,选择典型的农产品比价并加以测度,分析构成比价的成对农产品间的联动关系。介绍了农产品比价所采用的形式、代表性农产品比价的选择、价格类型的选择,并对农产品比价加以测度。分析了构成比价的农产品间的市场价格的整合关系和价格传导关系。最终选择了以大豆玉米、小麦玉米、棉麦比价和猪粮比价为代表的比价形式。其中大豆-玉米、小麦-玉米、棉花-小麦和生猪-玉米价格间存在市场整合关系,价格传导较为顺畅,市场效率较高。
第三,从三个方面对农产品比价的变动规律进行分析。对农产品比价波动的总体特征进行分析。判断改革开放以来农产品比价波动的趋势性。通过统计性分析以判断农产品比价波动情况、采用HP滤波方法,对农产品比价进行周期性分析,划分周期并分析各个周期的波动特征。结果表明,在四种代表性农产品比价中,就波动性而言,猪粮比价的波动性最强,其次依次为棉麦比价、大豆玉米比价和小麦玉米比价；就趋势性而言,小麦玉米比价自改革开放以来呈逐渐下降的趋势,生猪比价和棉麦比价以1994-1995年为临界点,在此之前有较低的比价均值,在此之后有较高的比价均值。
第四,从实证的角度分析引起农产品比价变化产生的原因。采用面板数据模型,对农产品比价的决定的数理模型进行检验,分别以大豆玉米比价和猪粮比价为例分析资源竞争型和投入产出型两种农产品比价的影响因素。结果表明,大豆玉米比价的形成受到玉米大豆相对劳动生产率、相对面积的变化、相对劳动力使用量、国家免征农业税并进行农业补贴的农业政策以及国际大豆玉米比价的影响。其中国际大豆玉米比价对国内大豆玉米比价的影响呈显著的正相关关系。猪粮比价的形成受到玉米和生猪的相对劳动生产率、相对劳动力使用量、通货膨胀因素率影响显著。
第五,通过对黑龙江的实地调研,分析了农产品比价对农业种植结构调整产生的影响。以具有典型资源竞争关系的玉米和大豆比价为例,探讨了大豆玉米比价的变化对农户种植决策行为的影响。结果表明,农户在进行生产决策以进行资源配置时,农户在生产决策过程中对于具有土地竞争关系的两种农作物进行生产决策时,相对价格的变化对农户种植结构调整起到了显著的正向作用,绝对价格对资源重新配置的作用不太显著。
最后对全文进行总结、提出相应的对策建议和进一步研究的设想。
Agricultural price ratio is ratio of two associated agricultural price, and reflects changes of relative earning. Analyze theoretically formation mechanism of agricultural price ratio, grasp variance law of agricultural price ratio, discern factors that influence agricultural price ratio variance, and investigate the effect for the agricultural production structure. Research has important practical significance for Government to formulate policies that guide the allocation of resources, improve the efficiency of resource allocation, and promote the growth of farmers'income levels. In order to analyze the formation mechanism of and law of agricultural price ratio, the article includes the following five aspects:
Firstly, analyze the theoretical and mathematical models of the formation of agricultural price ratio. Divide agricultural price ratio into resource competition price ratio and input-output price ratio, and reveal the mechanism of the formation of price ratio partial equilibrium theory with partial equilibrium theory in supply and demand markets of two agricultural products. Using the utility function and the production function, analyze factors that affect agricultural price ratio decision with the objective of consumer utility maximization.
Secondly, choose the form of agricultural price ratio, analyze the linkage between agricultural products, and measure agricultural price ratio. The section describes the form of agricultural price ratio, choose representative agricultural price ratio, and measure agricultural price ratio. Then, analyze agricultural products market integration and price transmission. Choose ultimately four kinds of price ratio relations, i.e., soybeans to corn, wheat to corn, cotton to wheat and hog to corn. There exists a balanced relationship between pairs of agricultural price among four kinds of price ratio relations, smoother price transmission and higher market efficiency.
Thirdly, analyze the variance law of agricultural price ratio from three aspects. On agricultural price ratio, analyze the general characteristics with statistical analysis, and judge trend, periodicity and fluctuation with HP filtering method. The results show that On volatility, hog-corn price ratio's is strongest, followed by cotton-wheat price ratio, soybean-corn price ratio, wheat-corn price ratio; in terms of trends, wheat-corn price ratio showed a gradual downward trend since the reform and opening up, and prior to1994-1995, they have a lower mean on soybean-corn price ratio, hog-corn price ratio, and soybean-corn price ratio, after which have a higher mean.
Fourthly, from an empirical perspective, analyze causes of variance on agricultural price ratio. Test correctness of mathematical models on the decision of the agricultural price ratio with panel data model. For example to soybean-corn price ratio and hog-corn price ratio, analyze factors that influence resource competitive price ratio and input-output price ratio. The results show the factors affecting soybean-corn price ratio include corn-soybean relative labor productivity, changes of the relative size, ratio of the amounts of labor, agricultural policies and international soybean-corn price ratio. Respectively, there was a significant positive correlation between china's and international soybean-corn price ratio. The factors affecting hog-corn price ratio include hog-corn relative labor productivity, ratio of the amounts of labor, and inflation rate.
Fifthly, analyzes the causes Heilongjiang Province' changes of agricultural planting structure in recent years to produce with field research datum. As an typical example, explores influence of soybean-corn price ratio to famers plating decision-making behavior. The results showed that, when making production decisions for the allocation of resources, variance of soybean-corn price ratio has a significant positive effect on farmers planting structure adjustment, and soybean price and corn price has less significant role for reallocation of resources.
Finally, the paper summarizes the proposed measures and the corresponding ideas for further research.
第一,对农产品比价形成的理论和数理模型进行分析。按照作物在生产中的关系,通过把农产品比价分为资源竞争型和投入产出型两种类型,用两种农产品四个市场的局部均衡理论揭示农产品比价形成的机理。通过效用函数和生产函数,以消费者效用最大化为目标,分析农产品比价决定的影响因素。
第二,选择典型的农产品比价并加以测度,分析构成比价的成对农产品间的联动关系。介绍了农产品比价所采用的形式、代表性农产品比价的选择、价格类型的选择,并对农产品比价加以测度。分析了构成比价的农产品间的市场价格的整合关系和价格传导关系。最终选择了以大豆玉米、小麦玉米、棉麦比价和猪粮比价为代表的比价形式。其中大豆-玉米、小麦-玉米、棉花-小麦和生猪-玉米价格间存在市场整合关系,价格传导较为顺畅,市场效率较高。
第三,从三个方面对农产品比价的变动规律进行分析。对农产品比价波动的总体特征进行分析。判断改革开放以来农产品比价波动的趋势性。通过统计性分析以判断农产品比价波动情况、采用HP滤波方法,对农产品比价进行周期性分析,划分周期并分析各个周期的波动特征。结果表明,在四种代表性农产品比价中,就波动性而言,猪粮比价的波动性最强,其次依次为棉麦比价、大豆玉米比价和小麦玉米比价；就趋势性而言,小麦玉米比价自改革开放以来呈逐渐下降的趋势,生猪比价和棉麦比价以1994-1995年为临界点,在此之前有较低的比价均值,在此之后有较高的比价均值。
第四,从实证的角度分析引起农产品比价变化产生的原因。采用面板数据模型,对农产品比价的决定的数理模型进行检验,分别以大豆玉米比价和猪粮比价为例分析资源竞争型和投入产出型两种农产品比价的影响因素。结果表明,大豆玉米比价的形成受到玉米大豆相对劳动生产率、相对面积的变化、相对劳动力使用量、国家免征农业税并进行农业补贴的农业政策以及国际大豆玉米比价的影响。其中国际大豆玉米比价对国内大豆玉米比价的影响呈显著的正相关关系。猪粮比价的形成受到玉米和生猪的相对劳动生产率、相对劳动力使用量、通货膨胀因素率影响显著。
第五,通过对黑龙江的实地调研,分析了农产品比价对农业种植结构调整产生的影响。以具有典型资源竞争关系的玉米和大豆比价为例,探讨了大豆玉米比价的变化对农户种植决策行为的影响。结果表明,农户在进行生产决策以进行资源配置时,农户在生产决策过程中对于具有土地竞争关系的两种农作物进行生产决策时,相对价格的变化对农户种植结构调整起到了显著的正向作用,绝对价格对资源重新配置的作用不太显著。
最后对全文进行总结、提出相应的对策建议和进一步研究的设想。
Agricultural price ratio is ratio of two associated agricultural price, and reflects changes of relative earning. Analyze theoretically formation mechanism of agricultural price ratio, grasp variance law of agricultural price ratio, discern factors that influence agricultural price ratio variance, and investigate the effect for the agricultural production structure. Research has important practical significance for Government to formulate policies that guide the allocation of resources, improve the efficiency of resource allocation, and promote the growth of farmers'income levels. In order to analyze the formation mechanism of and law of agricultural price ratio, the article includes the following five aspects:
Firstly, analyze the theoretical and mathematical models of the formation of agricultural price ratio. Divide agricultural price ratio into resource competition price ratio and input-output price ratio, and reveal the mechanism of the formation of price ratio partial equilibrium theory with partial equilibrium theory in supply and demand markets of two agricultural products. Using the utility function and the production function, analyze factors that affect agricultural price ratio decision with the objective of consumer utility maximization.
Secondly, choose the form of agricultural price ratio, analyze the linkage between agricultural products, and measure agricultural price ratio. The section describes the form of agricultural price ratio, choose representative agricultural price ratio, and measure agricultural price ratio. Then, analyze agricultural products market integration and price transmission. Choose ultimately four kinds of price ratio relations, i.e., soybeans to corn, wheat to corn, cotton to wheat and hog to corn. There exists a balanced relationship between pairs of agricultural price among four kinds of price ratio relations, smoother price transmission and higher market efficiency.
Thirdly, analyze the variance law of agricultural price ratio from three aspects. On agricultural price ratio, analyze the general characteristics with statistical analysis, and judge trend, periodicity and fluctuation with HP filtering method. The results show that On volatility, hog-corn price ratio's is strongest, followed by cotton-wheat price ratio, soybean-corn price ratio, wheat-corn price ratio; in terms of trends, wheat-corn price ratio showed a gradual downward trend since the reform and opening up, and prior to1994-1995, they have a lower mean on soybean-corn price ratio, hog-corn price ratio, and soybean-corn price ratio, after which have a higher mean.
Fourthly, from an empirical perspective, analyze causes of variance on agricultural price ratio. Test correctness of mathematical models on the decision of the agricultural price ratio with panel data model. For example to soybean-corn price ratio and hog-corn price ratio, analyze factors that influence resource competitive price ratio and input-output price ratio. The results show the factors affecting soybean-corn price ratio include corn-soybean relative labor productivity, changes of the relative size, ratio of the amounts of labor, agricultural policies and international soybean-corn price ratio. Respectively, there was a significant positive correlation between china's and international soybean-corn price ratio. The factors affecting hog-corn price ratio include hog-corn relative labor productivity, ratio of the amounts of labor, and inflation rate.
Fifthly, analyzes the causes Heilongjiang Province' changes of agricultural planting structure in recent years to produce with field research datum. As an typical example, explores influence of soybean-corn price ratio to famers plating decision-making behavior. The results showed that, when making production decisions for the allocation of resources, variance of soybean-corn price ratio has a significant positive effect on farmers planting structure adjustment, and soybean price and corn price has less significant role for reallocation of resources.
Finally, the paper summarizes the proposed measures and the corresponding ideas for further research.
引文
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