管理决策中的个体认知偏差研究
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摘要
现代管理科学中最大的问题便是如何在不确定性环境下进行高效率的决策。当前企业所面临的环境越来越复杂,也越来越不确定。管理决策正面临极大的挑战。行为经济学家在认知心理学的指导下,从个体认知偏差的角度对不确定性环境中的判断和决策问题的研究,势必有助于管理学学者在这个领域的进一步深入,为科学的管理决策提供理论和实践上的依据。
管理决策是外显的行为表现,而认知偏差是人类非理性决策过程的内隐认知机制。目前有关管理决策方面的研究文献很多,但是从认知偏差这一视角下对管理决策的研究则处于刚刚起步、构建阶段。本文主要考察决策背后的心理过程的性质,关注如何根据动机、认知过程和心理表征作出决策,尤其注重利用认知心理学的研究成果来分析决策的基本过程。
本文的研究思路是,在有限理性假设的前提下,以“认知偏差”为切入点开展对管理决策行为的研究,从认知偏差的视角重新审视和解读管理决策。围绕管理决策和认知偏差两个主要研究对象以及两者之间的关系,分别从认知心理学、行为经济学、行为决策学等各个不同的学科视角下对二者进行了深入研究。在实证研究的基础上,构建了系统的基于认知偏差的管理决策模型,并提出了具有实践性和操作性的纠偏策略,将其应用在管理决策的制定和修正中。全文共分为八个部分:
第一章导论。主要介绍问题提出的背景及理论和现实意义,研究的前提假设,本文研究对象的界定、本文采用的研究方法及本文的研究思路和框架。第二章文献综述。本章主要对国内外从认知心理学、行为经济学、行为决策学中有关决策和认知的问题的相关文献进行了梳理,从多个学科视角下对认知偏差作了深入的解析,其中这三者属于较新的理论和学科,有着前沿的理论和观点,有助于解释认知偏差产生的深层原因。从已有的文献中得到一些启示也发现一些不足,针对我国在管理决策中对认知偏差的认识不够充分,理解不够到位,提出了本文的研究和探索方向。
第三章管理决策中认知偏差的因素分析。本章主要从内因和外因两个方面来探讨管理决策中知偏差产生的原因。其中认知偏差产生的内因是心理机制,分别从认知因素、决策者的个性因素和决策者的有限理性三个方面阐释了其对认知偏差产生的心理机制的影响。其中认知因素又包括选择性知觉、重构性记忆、简捷化直觉和归因因素。认知偏差产生的外因是文化因素,即群体/组织文化和社会文化。结合内因和外因两方面的分析,探究了偏差产生的深层原因,为下一步研究奠定了良好的基础。
第四章认知偏差对管理决策影响分析。本章首先从信息加工理论出发,提出了认知偏差阶段划分的理论依据,将决策过程细分为信息收集阶段、信息编辑阶段和信息评估阶段三个阶段。并将认知偏差分类为收集偏差、编辑偏差和评估偏差三类。信息收集阶段易产生的偏差为启发式偏差和知觉偏差。信息编辑阶段易产生的偏差为框架效应、联合评估和单独评估偏差、过度自信、损失厌恶等。信息评估阶段易产生的偏差为归因偏差、沉没成本、认知失协、证实偏好、后悔厌恶、后见之明等。研究了管理决策中认知偏差的表现形式以及认知偏差与启发式对管理决策的正面效用。不确定环境下这些认知偏差会影响到人的判断与决策,判断与决策又会对管理决策产生影响。
第五章认知偏差与管理决策关系实证研究。本部分通过调查问卷的方式,对认知偏差与管理决策关系进行了实证研究。调查问卷1主要验证决策者是否具有认知偏差。调查问卷2的研究结果表明了信息收集阶段认知偏差对信息编辑阶段认知偏差有直接影响,信息编辑阶段的认知偏差对信息评估阶段的认知偏差有直接影响。认知的识别偏差、编辑偏差、评价偏差均对决策偏差产生影响。
第六章基于认知偏差的管理决策模型构建与应用。通过以上对认知偏差产生的原因及其对管理决策影响的实证研究后,比较了标准化决策模型与描述性决策模型,试图构建基于认知偏差基础上的管理决策模型,管理决策模型的构建有利于决策者更清晰地预见决策过程中可能遇到的问题,可能出现的偏差,为企业的管理者在进行决策时提供一个可操作的平台,并为下一步的纠偏策略提供理论和技术上的支持。
第七章管理决策中认知偏差纠正策略。本章主要提出了三条纠偏策略。第一种策略是对决策过程中认知偏差的纠正。第二种策略是采用数理策略对偏差的纠正,主要采用线性模型、统计技术。第三种是框架策略对偏差的纠正。
第八章结论与展望。论文的最后一部分,在总结了全文的理论和实证研究的基础上,指出了本文研究的局限性和未来的研究展望。
The most important question of modern management science is how to make high efficient decision under uncertainty environment. The environment what the enterprises are facing is more and more complicated and uncertainty. Management decision are facing extreme challenge. Instructed by cognitive psychology, behavioral economist are doing research on judgment and decision under uncertainly environment by the aspect of individual cognitive bias. This will help scholars of management do further research in this field and provide theoretic and practical evidence for scientific management decision.
Management decision is explicit behavior, but cognition bias is a mechanism of implicit cognition of human’s irrational decision process. There are lots of document about management decision nowadays, but the investigation of management decision by the aspect of cognition bias is the stage of initial step and conceiving. This dissertation emphasizes on the psychology process behind the decision and how to make decision according to motivation, cognition process and psychology token. It also pays much attention to analyze the basic decision process by the way of research founding of cognition psychology.
The train of thought of this dissertation is that making research on management decision behavior by the way of cognition bias and reconsidering and explaining management decision by the aspect of cognition bias under the premise of bounded rationality. It does further research on management decision and cognition bias and the relationship between them from the three aspects of cognition psychology, behavioral economics and behavioral decision. It also conceived a systematic management decision model based on demonstration research. This dissertation puts forward practical and operational correcting bias routes and apply them on the decision making and modifying.
The whole dissertation is divided into 8 parts:
Chapter 1, introductions. It mainly introduces the background, research value of theory and reality, premise hypothesis of the research, research methods, research innovation and framework.
Chapter 2, literature reviews. This part makes a systemization of something about decision-making and cognition from Cognition Psychology, Behavior Economics to Behavior Decision and makes a penetrate analysis by the aspects of several subjects. These three subjects belong to modern theories and subjects and they have advanced theories and viewpoints and help explain the deep reason of what the emergency of cognition bias. The dissertation gets some enlightenment and finds some deficiencies from existed literature. It puts forward the research and investigation directions aiming at that decision-maker can’t recognize and understand of cognition bias in management decision.
Chapter 3, analyzing the reasons of cognition bias emerging in management decision. This part mainly discusses the emergence reason of cognition bias in management decision from inner factors and outer factors. The inner factors of the emergence of cognition bias is psychology mechanism, and it explains how these factors which are cognition factor, individual factor of decision-maker and bounded rationality of decision-maker affect the emergence of cognition bias mechanism. Cognition factor includes selective perception, rebuilded memory, directed intuition and attribution factor. The outer factor of the emergence of cognition bias is cultural factor which is combined of group and organization culture and social culture. The dissertation combine analysis of inner and outer factors, probe into the deep reason of coming into being of bias and make a better foundation for next research.
Chapter 4, analyzing of the effect of cognition bias to management decision. This chapter puts forward the theoretical evidence of dividing the process of cognitive bias based on the theory of information processing and divides the process of decision into 3 parts: information collecting period, information editing period and information evaluating period. It also classifies cognitive bias into 3 types: cognitive bias of information collecting period, cognitive bias of information editing period, cognitive bias of information evaluating period. Cognitive bias of information collecting period are heuristic bias and perception bias. Cognitive bias of information editing period are framing effect, conjunctive and disjunctive events bias, overconfidence, loss aversion and so on. Cognitive bias of information evaluating period are attribution bias, sunk cost, cognitive dissonance, confirmation preference, regret aversion, hindsight and etc. This chapter makes research on the behavioral modality and the frontal effect of cognitive bias to management decision. These cognition bias under uncertainty circumstance will affect people’s judgment and decision, therefore, these judgment and decision will affect management decision.
Chapter 5, empirical research on the relationship between cognitive bias and management decisions. This part makes empirical research on the relations between cognition bias and management decision by the way of investigation questionnaire. Questionnaire 1 mainly testify if decision-makers have the cognition bias. The result of Questionnaire 2 shows that cognition bias before decision has direct influence on bias in decision and cognition bias in decision has direct influence on bias after decision. Furthermore, identify bias, edit bias and evaluation bias of cognition all have effect on decision bias.
Chapter 6, the conceiving and applying of the model of management decision based on cognition bias. After the demonstration researching on the reason of the emergence of cognition bias and the effect of these bias to management decision, this part compares normative decision theory and descriptive decision theory and try to conceive management decision model based on cognition bias.
The conceiving of management decision model favors decision-makers who can forecast problems that they will face during the process of decision and bias which will probably appear. It also provides an operated plat for those manager and supports theory and techniques for next correction of bias.
Chapter 7, strategy of cognition bias correction of management decision. There are 3 correction strategies of this part. The first strategy is the correction of cognition bias during the process of decision. The second strategy is taking technique strategy to correct bias, and these technique strategy are linear model, statistics techniques and team decision techniques. The third strategy is building bias control frame. Chapter 8, conclusion and prospect. The last part of this dissertation summarizes the whole paper’s theories and empirical research and points out the limitation of the paper and the future research expectation.
管理决策是外显的行为表现,而认知偏差是人类非理性决策过程的内隐认知机制。目前有关管理决策方面的研究文献很多,但是从认知偏差这一视角下对管理决策的研究则处于刚刚起步、构建阶段。本文主要考察决策背后的心理过程的性质,关注如何根据动机、认知过程和心理表征作出决策,尤其注重利用认知心理学的研究成果来分析决策的基本过程。
本文的研究思路是,在有限理性假设的前提下,以“认知偏差”为切入点开展对管理决策行为的研究,从认知偏差的视角重新审视和解读管理决策。围绕管理决策和认知偏差两个主要研究对象以及两者之间的关系,分别从认知心理学、行为经济学、行为决策学等各个不同的学科视角下对二者进行了深入研究。在实证研究的基础上,构建了系统的基于认知偏差的管理决策模型,并提出了具有实践性和操作性的纠偏策略,将其应用在管理决策的制定和修正中。全文共分为八个部分:
第一章导论。主要介绍问题提出的背景及理论和现实意义,研究的前提假设,本文研究对象的界定、本文采用的研究方法及本文的研究思路和框架。第二章文献综述。本章主要对国内外从认知心理学、行为经济学、行为决策学中有关决策和认知的问题的相关文献进行了梳理,从多个学科视角下对认知偏差作了深入的解析,其中这三者属于较新的理论和学科,有着前沿的理论和观点,有助于解释认知偏差产生的深层原因。从已有的文献中得到一些启示也发现一些不足,针对我国在管理决策中对认知偏差的认识不够充分,理解不够到位,提出了本文的研究和探索方向。
第三章管理决策中认知偏差的因素分析。本章主要从内因和外因两个方面来探讨管理决策中知偏差产生的原因。其中认知偏差产生的内因是心理机制,分别从认知因素、决策者的个性因素和决策者的有限理性三个方面阐释了其对认知偏差产生的心理机制的影响。其中认知因素又包括选择性知觉、重构性记忆、简捷化直觉和归因因素。认知偏差产生的外因是文化因素,即群体/组织文化和社会文化。结合内因和外因两方面的分析,探究了偏差产生的深层原因,为下一步研究奠定了良好的基础。
第四章认知偏差对管理决策影响分析。本章首先从信息加工理论出发,提出了认知偏差阶段划分的理论依据,将决策过程细分为信息收集阶段、信息编辑阶段和信息评估阶段三个阶段。并将认知偏差分类为收集偏差、编辑偏差和评估偏差三类。信息收集阶段易产生的偏差为启发式偏差和知觉偏差。信息编辑阶段易产生的偏差为框架效应、联合评估和单独评估偏差、过度自信、损失厌恶等。信息评估阶段易产生的偏差为归因偏差、沉没成本、认知失协、证实偏好、后悔厌恶、后见之明等。研究了管理决策中认知偏差的表现形式以及认知偏差与启发式对管理决策的正面效用。不确定环境下这些认知偏差会影响到人的判断与决策,判断与决策又会对管理决策产生影响。
第五章认知偏差与管理决策关系实证研究。本部分通过调查问卷的方式,对认知偏差与管理决策关系进行了实证研究。调查问卷1主要验证决策者是否具有认知偏差。调查问卷2的研究结果表明了信息收集阶段认知偏差对信息编辑阶段认知偏差有直接影响,信息编辑阶段的认知偏差对信息评估阶段的认知偏差有直接影响。认知的识别偏差、编辑偏差、评价偏差均对决策偏差产生影响。
第六章基于认知偏差的管理决策模型构建与应用。通过以上对认知偏差产生的原因及其对管理决策影响的实证研究后,比较了标准化决策模型与描述性决策模型,试图构建基于认知偏差基础上的管理决策模型,管理决策模型的构建有利于决策者更清晰地预见决策过程中可能遇到的问题,可能出现的偏差,为企业的管理者在进行决策时提供一个可操作的平台,并为下一步的纠偏策略提供理论和技术上的支持。
第七章管理决策中认知偏差纠正策略。本章主要提出了三条纠偏策略。第一种策略是对决策过程中认知偏差的纠正。第二种策略是采用数理策略对偏差的纠正,主要采用线性模型、统计技术。第三种是框架策略对偏差的纠正。
第八章结论与展望。论文的最后一部分,在总结了全文的理论和实证研究的基础上,指出了本文研究的局限性和未来的研究展望。
The most important question of modern management science is how to make high efficient decision under uncertainty environment. The environment what the enterprises are facing is more and more complicated and uncertainty. Management decision are facing extreme challenge. Instructed by cognitive psychology, behavioral economist are doing research on judgment and decision under uncertainly environment by the aspect of individual cognitive bias. This will help scholars of management do further research in this field and provide theoretic and practical evidence for scientific management decision.
Management decision is explicit behavior, but cognition bias is a mechanism of implicit cognition of human’s irrational decision process. There are lots of document about management decision nowadays, but the investigation of management decision by the aspect of cognition bias is the stage of initial step and conceiving. This dissertation emphasizes on the psychology process behind the decision and how to make decision according to motivation, cognition process and psychology token. It also pays much attention to analyze the basic decision process by the way of research founding of cognition psychology.
The train of thought of this dissertation is that making research on management decision behavior by the way of cognition bias and reconsidering and explaining management decision by the aspect of cognition bias under the premise of bounded rationality. It does further research on management decision and cognition bias and the relationship between them from the three aspects of cognition psychology, behavioral economics and behavioral decision. It also conceived a systematic management decision model based on demonstration research. This dissertation puts forward practical and operational correcting bias routes and apply them on the decision making and modifying.
The whole dissertation is divided into 8 parts:
Chapter 1, introductions. It mainly introduces the background, research value of theory and reality, premise hypothesis of the research, research methods, research innovation and framework.
Chapter 2, literature reviews. This part makes a systemization of something about decision-making and cognition from Cognition Psychology, Behavior Economics to Behavior Decision and makes a penetrate analysis by the aspects of several subjects. These three subjects belong to modern theories and subjects and they have advanced theories and viewpoints and help explain the deep reason of what the emergency of cognition bias. The dissertation gets some enlightenment and finds some deficiencies from existed literature. It puts forward the research and investigation directions aiming at that decision-maker can’t recognize and understand of cognition bias in management decision.
Chapter 3, analyzing the reasons of cognition bias emerging in management decision. This part mainly discusses the emergence reason of cognition bias in management decision from inner factors and outer factors. The inner factors of the emergence of cognition bias is psychology mechanism, and it explains how these factors which are cognition factor, individual factor of decision-maker and bounded rationality of decision-maker affect the emergence of cognition bias mechanism. Cognition factor includes selective perception, rebuilded memory, directed intuition and attribution factor. The outer factor of the emergence of cognition bias is cultural factor which is combined of group and organization culture and social culture. The dissertation combine analysis of inner and outer factors, probe into the deep reason of coming into being of bias and make a better foundation for next research.
Chapter 4, analyzing of the effect of cognition bias to management decision. This chapter puts forward the theoretical evidence of dividing the process of cognitive bias based on the theory of information processing and divides the process of decision into 3 parts: information collecting period, information editing period and information evaluating period. It also classifies cognitive bias into 3 types: cognitive bias of information collecting period, cognitive bias of information editing period, cognitive bias of information evaluating period. Cognitive bias of information collecting period are heuristic bias and perception bias. Cognitive bias of information editing period are framing effect, conjunctive and disjunctive events bias, overconfidence, loss aversion and so on. Cognitive bias of information evaluating period are attribution bias, sunk cost, cognitive dissonance, confirmation preference, regret aversion, hindsight and etc. This chapter makes research on the behavioral modality and the frontal effect of cognitive bias to management decision. These cognition bias under uncertainty circumstance will affect people’s judgment and decision, therefore, these judgment and decision will affect management decision.
Chapter 5, empirical research on the relationship between cognitive bias and management decisions. This part makes empirical research on the relations between cognition bias and management decision by the way of investigation questionnaire. Questionnaire 1 mainly testify if decision-makers have the cognition bias. The result of Questionnaire 2 shows that cognition bias before decision has direct influence on bias in decision and cognition bias in decision has direct influence on bias after decision. Furthermore, identify bias, edit bias and evaluation bias of cognition all have effect on decision bias.
Chapter 6, the conceiving and applying of the model of management decision based on cognition bias. After the demonstration researching on the reason of the emergence of cognition bias and the effect of these bias to management decision, this part compares normative decision theory and descriptive decision theory and try to conceive management decision model based on cognition bias.
The conceiving of management decision model favors decision-makers who can forecast problems that they will face during the process of decision and bias which will probably appear. It also provides an operated plat for those manager and supports theory and techniques for next correction of bias.
Chapter 7, strategy of cognition bias correction of management decision. There are 3 correction strategies of this part. The first strategy is the correction of cognition bias during the process of decision. The second strategy is taking technique strategy to correct bias, and these technique strategy are linear model, statistics techniques and team decision techniques. The third strategy is building bias control frame. Chapter 8, conclusion and prospect. The last part of this dissertation summarizes the whole paper’s theories and empirical research and points out the limitation of the paper and the future research expectation.
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