船用低压电缆剩余寿命预测理论与实验研究
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摘要
全球经济一体化速度加快,世界贸易也随之繁荣,船舶已成为海上防御以及客货运输不可或缺的工具。船用电缆承担着传输电能和电信号的重要任务,故而成为军舰、客轮、货轮等船舶设备的电气系统的重要组成部分。众所周知,船用电缆工作环境十分复杂,在温度、油雾、湿度等众多因素的综合影响下,电缆的绝缘层材料非常容易受到损坏,导致电缆的绝缘下降甚至失效,对船上电气系统的安全及稳定造成了严重影响,而定期更换电缆成为了解决此安全隐患的有效方法之一。由于电缆造价高,更换过程繁琐,故频繁更换电缆是一项价格昂贵且繁重的工作,如何减少对电缆的盲目更换是本文研究的主要目的,如何在复杂的电缆工作环境中有效预测船用电缆的剩余寿命是本文要解决的主要问题。本文从船用电缆老化机理开展研究,采用多种方法有效的预测了船用电缆的剩余寿命,在保证船舶安全的情况下减少对电缆的盲目更换。本文主要完成的工作有：
首先,根据国标,在不同温度条件下,对绝缘层为丁苯橡胶的电缆和绝缘层为乙丙橡胶的电缆在恒温烘箱中进行热空气老化实验,老化时间2000小时,采集丁苯电缆138个老化试样、乙丙电缆492个老化试样,分析了630组老化实验数据；
其次,运用化学反应速率描述在温度影响下的船用电缆绝缘老化机理,在一阶动力学模型基础上引入二阶动力学模型动态描述电缆老化过程,引入时温叠加理论论证高温加速老化与常温老化其机理存在一致性,提出基于二阶动力学模型的时温叠加理论的电缆热寿命预测模型,充分利用各加速老化温度下的实验数据,以时温平移因子αT完成在外推正常温度下电缆的剩余寿命预测；
再次,设计温度、油雾老化实验方案,利用恒温油浴搭建老化实验平台,采集老化数据,首次系统研究温度和油雾浓度对船用电缆使用寿命的影响,运用非线性回归理论建立温度、油雾影响下的船用电缆剩余寿命预测模型,通过船用乙丙电缆老化实验数据验证了所建立预测模型正确性；
最后,运用灰色理论进行电缆剩余寿命预测,为提高预测精度,引入粒子群算法优化灰色GM(1,1)模型参数αGM,为了提高模型的寻优速度,优化并给出粒子群算法中惯性权重c0的定义式,建立基于改进粒子群的不等距GM(1,1)电缆剩余寿命预测模型,并通过船用丁苯电缆老化数据验证所建立模型的正确性。
With the acceleration of global economic integration and prosperity of world trade, vessels have become indispensable tools for defense operations at sea, and for passengers and cargo transportation. Shipboard cable, responsible for the transmission of electrical energy and signals, is an integral part of the marine electrical system. As we all known, under the influence of multi-factors, the insulating materials can be easily damaged, resulting in the decline and even failure of the insulation, thereby affecting the safety and stability of the marine electrical system, replacing the cable can to be an approach to deal with the issues. Because of the high cost, complex process, cable replacement is very expensive and onerous. How to reduce the blind replacement cable is the main purpose of this study, how to effectively predict the residual Life of the marine cable is the scientific problem to be solved. From the aging mechanism of marine cables, using a variety of methods to predict the residual life of the marine cable, and reduce the blind replacement of the cable to ensure the safety of the ship. Major achievements are as follows:
Firstly, according to the international standards, Ethylene Propylene Rubber (EPR) cable and Styrene Butadiene Rubber (SBR) cable were given the hot air aging tests in the thermostat drier. The aging time lasted for two thousand hours, and138aging samples of SBR and492samples of EPR were collected and630sets of experimental data were analyzed.
Secondly, the chemical reaction rate was used to depict the shipboard cable aging mechanism under the influence of temperature. Based on the first order dynamic model, the second order dynamic model was introduced to describe the cable aging process. TTSP theory was led to verify that the mechanism of accelerated aging and that of normal aging were of no difference. Moreover, an improved model based on the second order dynamic model and TTSP for cable thermal lifespan prediction was proposed, which took full advantage of the experimental data collected at varying temperatures. TTSP displacement factor aT was adopted to predict cable lifespan at extrapolated temperatures.
Thirdly, by constructing an aging experimental system and collecting the aging data, the impacts of temperature and concentration of oil mist on cable lifespan were discussed systematically for the first time. Based on the nonlinear regression theory, a model for prediction of cable lifespan under the influence of temperature and oil mist was built and tested. The technical data of the EPR cable was used to testify the correctness of the model.
Fourthly, by applying the Grey Theory, an unequal GM (1,1) model has been constructed to predict the cable lifespan. Furthermore, parameter a GM of the improved PSO-based grey model and inertia weight c0were brought in to improve the prediction accuracy and increase search speed. The accuracy of the model was tested by the technical data of the SBR cable.
首先,根据国标,在不同温度条件下,对绝缘层为丁苯橡胶的电缆和绝缘层为乙丙橡胶的电缆在恒温烘箱中进行热空气老化实验,老化时间2000小时,采集丁苯电缆138个老化试样、乙丙电缆492个老化试样,分析了630组老化实验数据；
其次,运用化学反应速率描述在温度影响下的船用电缆绝缘老化机理,在一阶动力学模型基础上引入二阶动力学模型动态描述电缆老化过程,引入时温叠加理论论证高温加速老化与常温老化其机理存在一致性,提出基于二阶动力学模型的时温叠加理论的电缆热寿命预测模型,充分利用各加速老化温度下的实验数据,以时温平移因子αT完成在外推正常温度下电缆的剩余寿命预测；
再次,设计温度、油雾老化实验方案,利用恒温油浴搭建老化实验平台,采集老化数据,首次系统研究温度和油雾浓度对船用电缆使用寿命的影响,运用非线性回归理论建立温度、油雾影响下的船用电缆剩余寿命预测模型,通过船用乙丙电缆老化实验数据验证了所建立预测模型正确性；
最后,运用灰色理论进行电缆剩余寿命预测,为提高预测精度,引入粒子群算法优化灰色GM(1,1)模型参数αGM,为了提高模型的寻优速度,优化并给出粒子群算法中惯性权重c0的定义式,建立基于改进粒子群的不等距GM(1,1)电缆剩余寿命预测模型,并通过船用丁苯电缆老化数据验证所建立模型的正确性。
With the acceleration of global economic integration and prosperity of world trade, vessels have become indispensable tools for defense operations at sea, and for passengers and cargo transportation. Shipboard cable, responsible for the transmission of electrical energy and signals, is an integral part of the marine electrical system. As we all known, under the influence of multi-factors, the insulating materials can be easily damaged, resulting in the decline and even failure of the insulation, thereby affecting the safety and stability of the marine electrical system, replacing the cable can to be an approach to deal with the issues. Because of the high cost, complex process, cable replacement is very expensive and onerous. How to reduce the blind replacement cable is the main purpose of this study, how to effectively predict the residual Life of the marine cable is the scientific problem to be solved. From the aging mechanism of marine cables, using a variety of methods to predict the residual life of the marine cable, and reduce the blind replacement of the cable to ensure the safety of the ship. Major achievements are as follows:
Firstly, according to the international standards, Ethylene Propylene Rubber (EPR) cable and Styrene Butadiene Rubber (SBR) cable were given the hot air aging tests in the thermostat drier. The aging time lasted for two thousand hours, and138aging samples of SBR and492samples of EPR were collected and630sets of experimental data were analyzed.
Secondly, the chemical reaction rate was used to depict the shipboard cable aging mechanism under the influence of temperature. Based on the first order dynamic model, the second order dynamic model was introduced to describe the cable aging process. TTSP theory was led to verify that the mechanism of accelerated aging and that of normal aging were of no difference. Moreover, an improved model based on the second order dynamic model and TTSP for cable thermal lifespan prediction was proposed, which took full advantage of the experimental data collected at varying temperatures. TTSP displacement factor aT was adopted to predict cable lifespan at extrapolated temperatures.
Thirdly, by constructing an aging experimental system and collecting the aging data, the impacts of temperature and concentration of oil mist on cable lifespan were discussed systematically for the first time. Based on the nonlinear regression theory, a model for prediction of cable lifespan under the influence of temperature and oil mist was built and tested. The technical data of the EPR cable was used to testify the correctness of the model.
Fourthly, by applying the Grey Theory, an unequal GM (1,1) model has been constructed to predict the cable lifespan. Furthermore, parameter a GM of the improved PSO-based grey model and inertia weight c0were brought in to improve the prediction accuracy and increase search speed. The accuracy of the model was tested by the technical data of the SBR cable.
引文
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