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土壤水盐时空变异的稳健性分析和条件模拟研究
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摘要
论文以数学地质分支——地质统计学为理论基础,在灌区土壤水盐监测目标下,结合水—土科学的特点,研究了土壤水—盐时空变异性,对黄河河套灌区内田间中小尺度的水盐变异规律做了较系统的条件模拟。为了加强空间变异理论在水—土科学中的研究基础,本文吸收了新兴相关学科——稳健统计学的先进成果,对土壤水盐数据的变异函数进行了特异值处理和稳健性分析,使土壤空间变异数据的处理更加科学化、合理化。
     土壤特性在空间和时间上都具有非均一性,即时空变异性。研究我国北方冻季、非冻季非饱和带土壤水分和盐分的时空变异性、监测与预测大面积土壤水-盐(肥)特性,对于指导我国中低产田的改造、现代农业水利工程的管理以及精细农业的实施具有重要的指导意义。在灌区土壤水盐监测目标下,空间采样尺度的确定与研究问题的性质(如空间变异性的揭示)、要求密切相关,田间尺度效应是决定采样点、网的设计密度和工作量的大小以及资金投入大小的基础。
     本文通过正态变换、特异值处理、稳健变异函数的估计,逐步逼近土壤水分和盐分的稳健变异函数,得到土壤水分和盐分稳健的带状各向异性套合模型。在秋浇前和夏灌前,土壤水分近似于正态分布,土壤盐分符合近似的三参数对数正态分布,并且都有一定数量的特异值存在。用四种位置的稳健方法:位置的尤伯估计、中位数中位偏差法、中位调节法与克瑞西—豪金斯法,对经特异值处理后的水盐数据进行变异函数的稳健分析,结果发现:稳健处理后的变异函数值(方差)都有所降低,变差图比之前表现出更强的结构性,但尚难绝对评价哪种方法(包括传统的变异函数计算方法)通用性最好,最适合反映土壤水盐的结构特性,因此只能根据具体情况择优选用。本文初步认为:中位调节法与克瑞西—豪金斯法比较适合估计土壤水分和盐分的稳健变异函数。
     在本研究网格数为中尺度的条件下,首次从国外引进并成功地运用协方差矩阵的LU三角分解法进行了二维平面上土壤水盐的条件模拟,认为该方法原理简单、计算精度高,模拟和条件化可同时进行,避免了常用的转向带法和傅立叶转换法的一些缺陷,在网格数为中尺度的条件模拟研究(地质与非地质领域)中,具有广泛的应用前景。
     用变异函数讨论了沙壕试验区季节性冻融土中不同时期非饱和带土壤垂向水分和盐分的时空变异性;运用条件模拟理论用较少的采样点再现其水盐的波动过程,并同普通Kriging插值法进行了对比分析和评价;同时研究了影响条件模拟Monte-Carlo实验计算精度和效率的两个重要因素——随机数种子(R_d)和随机数序列长度(R)的
    
    取值规律,得到了比较平稳的取值范围。较国外某些研究成果更深入和具体。
     从变异函数图、理论变异函数模型的检验结果及Kropng估值、条件模拟几个方
    面,对二维平面上土壤水盐的异向性进行了分析评价,认为在本研究区及条件相似
    的地区可以将土壤水盐分布近似简化为各向同性。简化了分析、计算工作,有较好
    的实用价值。
     在一维和二维空间,对土壤水分和盐分进行了田间尺度效应初步分析,结果表明:
    本引黄灌区土壤水分的变化性在h=25一100In观测尺度下,表现出相同的结构:土壤盐
    分的变化性在 h=25~100m观测尺度下,表现出同一级的结构;25m网格上的土壤水分
    和盐分的结构都可以用100m的观测网格估计或模拟;在h=10m的观测尺度下,土壤
    水分和盐分(一维)的结构性不能在]00m的采样网格上体现出来;即使是同一级的
    结构,随着采样尺度的增大,估计的精度也会明显降低,要想得到高精度的估计或模
    拟现实,必须加密采样网格,加大采样工作量。这些成果对野外采样设计及采样工作
    的实施有指导作用。
     本文有助于新兴科学在非地质领域的开拓应用,有助于数学地质理论在水-土资源
    和农业工程领域的学科融合创新。
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