河流水库系统枯水径流模拟及水量精细调度研究
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摘要
在空间上以水库及各河段为对象、时间上以日为步长的精细化水库调度及河段配水是一个非常复杂的问题。论文主要研究枯水期水资源合理调度及其相关的科学问题。
(1)通过枯水期原型观测和历史实测资料分析，分析不同季节不同河段不同流量级别的水流传播时间和河道损失，探索流量演进规律。利用线性组合原理，建立考虑河段引水、加水、损失等因素影响的河道枯水流量演进的线性方程模型，初步解决了黄河下游枯水期小流量演进的难题。
(2)在河流生态需水特性分析基础上，提出生态库容概念。利用水库调节基本原理，进行生态库容的计算。分析水库的单一河流生态功能调度、与供水结合的调度、与发电结合的调度及综合利用水库调度模式等。
(3)应用模糊数学方法，建立洪水分期的模糊聚类方法；将前汛期隶属函数采用矩形分布，后汛期隶属函数采用降半正态分布，建立汛限水位渐变的计算模型—汛限水位模糊分析法。
(4)根据水量调度的特点，把调度时段划分为月、旬和日，建立三层嵌套的水量优化调度模型。以供水缺水量最小目标、以防止河道断流为基本控制条件，考虑水量传播时间、河段取水、水量损失等因素，通过水库月、旬和日调度的嵌套运行，滚动决策，实现水库水量的精细调度和河段水量的合理配置。
(5)进行枯水调度模型的初步应用。计算结果表明，枯水流量演进模型是可行的，是对流量演进理论的有益尝试和补充；建立的水量精细调度模型计算精度较高，可以为枯水条件下水量精细调度和决策工作提供有效的计算工具和技术指导。
In the status of water resources shortage, it is difficult to solve the problem of water resources allocation in time and space by traditional approach. It is an very complex problem to optimize reservoir operation and water quatity allocation. The main research contens are as follows:
(l)Based on the analys of historical measurement data, low flow simulation is researched. An linear equation relationship is established, in consider of water diversion, evaporation and infiltration, branch inflow.
(2)An new concept is proposed, i.e. ecological volume of reservoir, based on the analys of ecological water demand. The corresponding calculation method is constructed by means of runoff regulation principle.
(3)By means of fuzzy mathematics, an fuzzy aggregation method of different flood is established. Rectangle and normal distribution is choosed as subjection function respectively former and later flood period. (4)Time intervals are decentralized to three scales: mooth, ten days and a day. The optimum objective is to minimize water shortage for different users in constraint of ecological and economical water demand. (5)The established models are applied in Yellow River. The results show that water flow simulation and optimization models are better than others. It can be used in practice.
(1)通过枯水期原型观测和历史实测资料分析，分析不同季节不同河段不同流量级别的水流传播时间和河道损失，探索流量演进规律。利用线性组合原理，建立考虑河段引水、加水、损失等因素影响的河道枯水流量演进的线性方程模型，初步解决了黄河下游枯水期小流量演进的难题。
(2)在河流生态需水特性分析基础上，提出生态库容概念。利用水库调节基本原理，进行生态库容的计算。分析水库的单一河流生态功能调度、与供水结合的调度、与发电结合的调度及综合利用水库调度模式等。
(3)应用模糊数学方法，建立洪水分期的模糊聚类方法；将前汛期隶属函数采用矩形分布，后汛期隶属函数采用降半正态分布，建立汛限水位渐变的计算模型—汛限水位模糊分析法。
(4)根据水量调度的特点，把调度时段划分为月、旬和日，建立三层嵌套的水量优化调度模型。以供水缺水量最小目标、以防止河道断流为基本控制条件，考虑水量传播时间、河段取水、水量损失等因素，通过水库月、旬和日调度的嵌套运行，滚动决策，实现水库水量的精细调度和河段水量的合理配置。
(5)进行枯水调度模型的初步应用。计算结果表明，枯水流量演进模型是可行的，是对流量演进理论的有益尝试和补充；建立的水量精细调度模型计算精度较高，可以为枯水条件下水量精细调度和决策工作提供有效的计算工具和技术指导。
In the status of water resources shortage, it is difficult to solve the problem of water resources allocation in time and space by traditional approach. It is an very complex problem to optimize reservoir operation and water quatity allocation. The main research contens are as follows:
(l)Based on the analys of historical measurement data, low flow simulation is researched. An linear equation relationship is established, in consider of water diversion, evaporation and infiltration, branch inflow.
(2)An new concept is proposed, i.e. ecological volume of reservoir, based on the analys of ecological water demand. The corresponding calculation method is constructed by means of runoff regulation principle.
(3)By means of fuzzy mathematics, an fuzzy aggregation method of different flood is established. Rectangle and normal distribution is choosed as subjection function respectively former and later flood period. (4)Time intervals are decentralized to three scales: mooth, ten days and a day. The optimum objective is to minimize water shortage for different users in constraint of ecological and economical water demand. (5)The established models are applied in Yellow River. The results show that water flow simulation and optimization models are better than others. It can be used in practice.
引文
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