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城市原水系统水质水量联合调度优化方法及应用研究
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摘要
水利是经济社会发展的基本条件、基础支撑、重要保障。加快水利发展改革是我国当前时期的重要战略,全面保障城乡居民饮水安全成为“十二五”期间加快水利发展改革的重要目标。城市原水系统是城市生活、生产、环境的主要水源,原水系统的健康可持续发展,是全面建设小康社会的必要条件。对原水系统的科学调度管理,不可脱离水资源具有“水质”与“水量”双重属性高度统一的现实,研究城市原水系统优化调度问题,必须从水质水量联合调度出发,探索水质-水量-调度目标之间的相互影响规律。
     本文针对城市饮用水安全保障问题,以城市原水系统为研究对象,分析原水系统结构特征,探讨原水系统水质仿真模型与水量调度模拟模型,在传统水量调度的单一模式基础上,构建水质水量控制耦合模型,提出水库群水质动态过程评价决策方法,利用已有的水质检测系统及水库调度信息管理系统等信息采集平台,开发城市原水系统水质水量联合优化调度的决策支持系统;所建立的调度系统与水源污染源监控系统、水厂工艺调控系统等共同构成城市水源安全保障体系,能够提高水源供水安全保证率,从源头上有效缓解了水厂应对突发水源污染的应急处理压力,为城市居民创造安全的饮用水条件,促进国民经济发展和社会稳定。通过研究取得的主要成果如下:
     (1)建立了城市原水系统水质模型。根据原水系统的结构特征,以水质迁移转化基本方程及水质指标生化反应原理为基础建立原水系统水质模型。针对原水系统水质模型具有多输入多输出和存在关联水质指标的特征提出水质模型的改进方法;运用粒子群算法和梯度法相结合,对模型进行多参数同时优化;利用模拟结果与实测数据比较验证模型的合理性。
     (2)建立了水量优化调度模型和计算机仿真模型。在分析深圳市原水系统水厂需水量变化规律的基础上,提出水厂需水量简易预测方法及雨洪资源的简单估算方法,利用供需平衡动态模拟技术建立原水系统水量优化调度模型,采取大系统分解协调原理进行模型求解;运用图论、可拓分析、数据结构及计算机面向对象技术,研究复杂原水系统网络结构的计算机动态存储技术,并设计、开发基于面向对象的原水系统计算机仿真模型。
     (3)提出了水库群多组分水质水量联合调度方案决策评价方法。通过分析水库群多组分水质动态过程评价问题的特征,提出调度方案三维信息空间结构描述方法;以单因子水质评价方法及综合指数评价方法为基础,构建单因子污染指数(SFPI)评价指标;以SFPI与水库蓄水量为基本指标建立评价指标体系,提出水库群多组分水质动态过程评价决策方法,应用该方法对原水系统水质水量联合调度方案进行评价决策,同时作为原水系统水质水量控制耦合模型的优化调度目标之一,为水质水量联合调度决策提供新思路。
     (4)建立了原水系统水质水量控制耦合模型。运用大系统理论分散控制原理及定性控制方法,以单个水库作为控制基本单元,构建水质-水量反馈控制基本模型;运用定性推理及定性数学方法,预测水库群之间水质指标相互影响规律,采用决策树分析方法分析水质水量调控策略,生成决策树形式的调控策略集,并将决策树植入策略分析器,建立水质水量控制耦合模型;分析水量优化调度与水质模拟在网络空间求解顺序上的矛盾,基于图的深度优先与广度优先混合遍历算法,探讨了原水系统水质水量控制耦合模型的时间、空间两个维度的求解方法;通过实例分析,验证模型的合理性以及水质调控效果。
     (5)设计开发了深圳市水源调度管理系统。通过分析深圳市水资源管理机制以及水源调度业务,确定深圳市水源调度的主要需求;根据已有信息采集平台,进行系统架构设计;介绍了系统的主要功能以及部署、应用情况。该系统为提高我国城市水资源调度管理技术水平提供主要技术支撑。
Water conservancy constitutes a basic condition, basic support and an important safeguard for economic and social development. To speed up the reform of water resource development becomes an important national strategy of the current period. To ensure drinking water safety in urban and rural areas in a comprehensive manner is an important target of the "12th Five-Year Plan". Urban raw water system is the main water source of city life, production, and environment, thus a healthy and sustainable development of raw water system becomes a necessary condition for building a moderately prosperous society. Scientific scheduling and management of raw water system cannot live without recognizing the fact that water resources has dual unified properties of "water quality" and "water quantity". The study on optimal scheduling of urban raw water system shall start from the joint scheduling of the water quality and quantity to explore the interactive law between the water quality, water quantity and scheduling objectives.
     With urban raw water system as research subject, this dissertation focuses on the protection of urban drinking water safety, conducts analysis of raw water system structure characteristics, and explores the raw water system water quality simulation model and water quantity scheduling simulation model. Based on single-mode of traditional water quantity scheduling model, water quality and water quantity control-coupling model is built providing proposal on an evaluation and decision-making methods for the dynamic process of water quality in reservoir group so as to develop decision-supporting system for the joint optimization and scheduling of water quality and quantity in urban raw water system by making use of existing information collection platforms such as water quality testing system and reservoir scheduling information management system. The scheduling system, water pollution sources monitoring system and water plant process control system set up in this pater together constitute the urban water source security system which can improve water supply security, effectively alleviate pressure of emergency treatment to sudden water source pollutionin water treatment plant, create safe drinking water condition for urban residents, and thus promote economic development and social stability. The main achievements of this dissertation are as follows:
     (1) Establishment of water quality model of urban raw water system.In accordance with the structural characteristics of the raw water system, the raw water system water quality model was established based on the basic equation of water quality migration and the biochemical reaction principle of water quality components. Noted that water quality model of raw water system has characteristics of multiple-input-multiple-output and associated water quality components, the paper proposes a method for improving the water quality model; combines PSO and gradient method to carry out multi-parameter optimization to the model; compares simulation result with measured data to validate reasonability of the model.
     (2) Establishment of water quantity optimal scheduling model and computer simulation model. Based on analysis of water demand variation of water plants in Shenzhen raw water system, the paper proposes a simple method for forecasting water demand in water plants and estimating rainwater resources, establishes an optimal scheduling model for the raw water system based on the supply-demand balance dynamic simulation technology, and solves the model with large system decomposition coordination principle. By making use of graph theory, extension analysis, data structures and computer object-oriented technology, the paper makes a study on computer dynamic storage technology of complex network structure of raw water system is made, designs and develops a computer simulation model of raw water system based on object-oriented technology.
     (3) Proposal of an evaluation and decision-making method for reservoir group multi-component water quality and quantity joint scheduling program.By analyzing characteristics of reservoir group multi-component water quality dynamic process evaluation, a three-dimensional information space structure description method is proposed for scheduling scheme; based on single factor water quality evaluation method and composite index evaluation method, the papers proposes asingle factor pollution index (SFPI); establishes evaluation index system with the SFPI and reservoir storage as basic indicators, and proposesthe evaluation and decision-making method for reservoir group multi-component water quality dynamic process. This method is then used to make evaluation and decision-making on the joint scheduling program of water quality and quantity of the raw water system. As the results of the evaluation is one of the optimal scheduling goals of the raw water system water quality and quantity control coupling model referred to in chapter six, it provides new ideas for decision-making of water quality and quantity joint scheduling.
     (4) Establishment of water quality and quantity control coupling model of raw water system.A basic model of water quality-quantity feedback controlis constructed by applying decentralized control principle of the large scale system theory and qualitative control method and using single reservoir as basic control unit; qualitative reasoning and qualitative mathematical method are used to predict the law of interaction in-between water quality component of different reservoir group; decision tree analysis method is employed to analyze water quality and quantity regulation strategies, generate a regulation strategy set in the form of decision tree form, and implant the decision tree into strategy analyzer to establish water quality and quantity control coupling model; the paper conducts an analysis on the contradiction between water quantity optimal scheduling and water quality simulation as their solve order in cyberspace is different; based on mixed depth-first and breadth-first traversal algorithm of graph, the paper discusses the method for solving the raw water system quality and quantity control coupling model in both dimensions of time and space; rationality of the model as well as water quality control effect is verified with case analysis.
     (5) Design and development of Shenzhen municipal water source scheduling and management system.With analysis of water resource management mechanisms and water-source-scheduling business in Shenzhen city, determine the main demands for water-source-scheduling in Shenzhen city; in accordance with the existing information collection platform, design architecture of the system; and introduce the main functions, deployment and application of the system which provides the main technical support for improving technical level of urban water resource scheduling and management in China.
引文
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