基于区域经济的区域物流需求分析及实证研究
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摘要
近年来,区域物流是许多行业关注的重要问题。由于物流产业地位在国家层面的确立,特别是物流业在服务业中的重要作用,物流业已成为各级政府规划与发展的重点之一,不少区域将发展物流作为新的经济增长点。在国家“十一五”规划出台后,各省市政府纷纷制定区域物流发展纲要或规划,而要得出合理的规划,需要对物流需求规模进行合理分析和准确预测,故物流产品的需求量是政府、物流部门和物流园区建设部门都十分关切的问题。因此本文通过分析影响区域物流的因素,尤其是经济因素,建立了区域物流需求模型,并实证了区域物流需求预测模型。现总结如下:
一、对区域物流和物流需求的内涵进行了分析和归纳,明确它们各自的特点。运用微观经济学理论分析了区域物流需求和供给,讨论了供给或需求的移动对均衡的影响。
二、研究了区域物流与区域经济的内在关系。
首先,从七个方面讨论了区域物流在区域经济发展中的作用,得出区域物流不但是经济发展的保障,而且还能通过它优化产业结构、提高经济效率、改善投资环境等提高经济质量。然后,反过来讨论了新形式下区域经济对区域物流发展的作用,重点讨论了经济全球化、区域经济一体化的背景下,区域经济对区域物流发展的影响。
最后,采用投入产出法,同样从物流对经济的贡献和经济发展对物流的影响两个角度,研究物流与经济的内在联系。
1)通过直接消耗系数及其矩阵分析、完全消耗系数及其矩阵分析,可以直观的看出物流业与各部门之间的联系,对各部门发展的影响强弱,对国民经济各部门生产的需求的带动作用,对国民经济的影响力等。通过建立物流业直接经济贡献模型,计算出各部门每万元投入的直接经济贡献。
2)通过研究各产业部门最终需求增长对物流业产出的影响,说明了物流业受产业部门以及整个国民经济影响的具体情况。
三、建立了物流需求函数的抽象形式。在分析区域物流需求影响因素的基础上,构建了区域物流需求的指标体系。采用灰色理论分析了区域物流与其主要影响因子的相关性,并以上海、四川为例,得出了不同时期各因素与区域物流的关联度。
四、采用计量经济学中的协整理论,分别定量分析区域物流对区域经济发展的作用和区域经济对区域物流发展的作用,得出了基于协整理论的区域物流需求模型。
1)针对区域经济对区域物流影响的定量分析问题,本章分别以上海市和四川省为例,以物流产值作为被解释变量,建立区域经济与区域物流业之间的关系模型,采用协整理论分析了它们之间的长期关系。
2)针对区域物流对区域经济作用的定量分析问题,本章以四川省GDP的对数值Ln(GDP)表征经济增长率,以货物周转量的对数值Ln(Logistics)、交通运输、仓储及邮电通信业基本建设投资的对数值Ln(Invest)、交通、仓储邮电业职工人数Ln(Employees)作为物流业增长率的指标,并建立四川省物流业与四川省经济增长之间的关系模型,采用协整理论进行分析,并取得了比较好的效果。
五、从影响因素的角度出发,利用基于结构风险最小化准则的SVR方法,建立预测模型,对区域物流需求预测进行实证分析,通过与ANN方法、回归分析方法的实证比较研究发现,其预测结果更理想。针对区域物流需求众多影响因素之间的相关性问题,引入主成分分析方法并取得更好的效果。
六、针对传统方法和人工神经网络在处理时间序列预测问题时的缺陷,采用标准SVR方法,从时间序列的角度出发,建立预测模型,对区域物流需求进行预测,通过与ANN方法、回归分析方法的实证比较研究发现,其预测结果更理想。针对区域物流需求中样本重要性不相同问题,引进改进ε-SVR,其预测结果比标准SVR方法更理想。
结论部分,对论文进行归纳总结,提出本文的创新点,同时指出了论文研究中的不足和遗留问题。
Recent years, regional logistics is an important part for modern industries. The role of logistics industry is well recognized in national wide. Because of the important role in 3rd industry, logistics becomes one of the key works of government's planning, and the development of logistics is enhanced as a headstream of new economy incensement. After The Outline of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, regional logistics planning is spread around the country, where rational analysis and precise forecasting are essential issues. One of the critical problems in the face of planner and manager is logistics products demand estimation.
This paper establishes a regional logistics demand model which is demonstrated in an empirical study, on the basis of analysis on influencing factors, such as economic factors of regional logistics. Summary is as follows
1、The connotations of regional logistics and logistics demand have been redefined to obtain more clear insights of their characteristics; regional logistics demand and supply are analyzed using micro-economic theory. And a discussion is presented about impacts of the supply or demand movement on the market balance.
2、The internal mechanism between regional logistics and regional economic is studied:
Firstly, seven aspects are discussed with regard to logistics effects on regional economies development. Regional logistics is not only a protection to economic development, but also can optimizes the industrial structure, improve economic efficiency, improves the investment environment, and enhances the quality of the economy. Therefore, the regional logistics plays a significant role in the regional economic development. In turn, the effects of regional economic on the regional logistics development are discussed in a new form. The emphases is focused on, the regional economic impacts on regional logistics development under the background of economic globalization and regional economic integration.
At the end, the input-output method is integrated to study the internal links between logistics and economic from two angles of the logistics contributions and influences to the economy.
1) Through analysises on the direct consumption coefficient and its matrix, the complete coefficient consumption and its matrix, we can see intuitively the links between logistics industry and the various departments, the influences on departments' developments, leadship to national economy, effects on national economy and so on. After the establishment of logistics direct economy contribution model, the direct economical contribution of every ten thousand Yuan investments in every departments are calculated.
2) The influence of the industrial department as well as the entire national economy on logistics are explained in special details, through studies on the various industrial Department final demand to grow the influence which delivers to the logistics.
3、A general function format of logistics demand is established based on analysis of impacts of economic on logistics. And a novel indices system of regional logistics demand is established, the grey theory was used to analyze the relevance between regional logistics and its major economic influence factor. Shanghai and Sichuan are taken as an example, where the interrelatedness is obtained.
4、Using the co-integration theory in the metrology econometrics, analysis on effects between regional logistics on regional economies development is conducted respectively and quantitatively.
1) In the view of quantitative analysis on effects of regional economies on regional logistics, Shanghai and Sichuan are taken as an example with indices of logarithm value of Sichuan's cargo volume of the circular flow. Relational model between the economy and the logistics grows is established using cooperation theory.
2) In the view of quantitative analysis of effects of regional logistics on regional economies, economic growth rate is described by logarithm value of Sichuan GDP with indices describing increment rate of logistics which are composed of logarithm value of cargo volume of the circular flow, logarithm value of capital investment in transportation, warehousing and the posts and telecommunications communication industry, and the logarithm value of staff population in the transportation, warehousing postal service. Relational model between the Sichuan logistics and the Sichuan economic growth is established using cooperation theory, which has made a quite good progress.
5、From influencing factors' angle, the forecast model is established based on the structure risk minimum criterion SVR method, which is applied on a empirical forecasting of the regional logistics demand. More ideal results can be obtained through ANN method, and the regression analysis method, in view of relevant question between numerous factors that affects regional logistics demand, principal components analysis method is introduced which makes a better progress.
6、In view of limitations of conventional approaches and time sequence forecast method by artificial neural networks, region distribution demand is forecasted using standard SVR method, from time series' angle. Better results are gained through ANN method and regression analysis method. In view of difference between samples of the regional logistics demand, improved-SVR is introduced whose forecasting result is more ideal than standard SVR method.
In the conclusion part, summaries are proposed, such as innovations and insufficiency.
一、对区域物流和物流需求的内涵进行了分析和归纳,明确它们各自的特点。运用微观经济学理论分析了区域物流需求和供给,讨论了供给或需求的移动对均衡的影响。
二、研究了区域物流与区域经济的内在关系。
首先,从七个方面讨论了区域物流在区域经济发展中的作用,得出区域物流不但是经济发展的保障,而且还能通过它优化产业结构、提高经济效率、改善投资环境等提高经济质量。然后,反过来讨论了新形式下区域经济对区域物流发展的作用,重点讨论了经济全球化、区域经济一体化的背景下,区域经济对区域物流发展的影响。
最后,采用投入产出法,同样从物流对经济的贡献和经济发展对物流的影响两个角度,研究物流与经济的内在联系。
1)通过直接消耗系数及其矩阵分析、完全消耗系数及其矩阵分析,可以直观的看出物流业与各部门之间的联系,对各部门发展的影响强弱,对国民经济各部门生产的需求的带动作用,对国民经济的影响力等。通过建立物流业直接经济贡献模型,计算出各部门每万元投入的直接经济贡献。
2)通过研究各产业部门最终需求增长对物流业产出的影响,说明了物流业受产业部门以及整个国民经济影响的具体情况。
三、建立了物流需求函数的抽象形式。在分析区域物流需求影响因素的基础上,构建了区域物流需求的指标体系。采用灰色理论分析了区域物流与其主要影响因子的相关性,并以上海、四川为例,得出了不同时期各因素与区域物流的关联度。
四、采用计量经济学中的协整理论,分别定量分析区域物流对区域经济发展的作用和区域经济对区域物流发展的作用,得出了基于协整理论的区域物流需求模型。
1)针对区域经济对区域物流影响的定量分析问题,本章分别以上海市和四川省为例,以物流产值作为被解释变量,建立区域经济与区域物流业之间的关系模型,采用协整理论分析了它们之间的长期关系。
2)针对区域物流对区域经济作用的定量分析问题,本章以四川省GDP的对数值Ln(GDP)表征经济增长率,以货物周转量的对数值Ln(Logistics)、交通运输、仓储及邮电通信业基本建设投资的对数值Ln(Invest)、交通、仓储邮电业职工人数Ln(Employees)作为物流业增长率的指标,并建立四川省物流业与四川省经济增长之间的关系模型,采用协整理论进行分析,并取得了比较好的效果。
五、从影响因素的角度出发,利用基于结构风险最小化准则的SVR方法,建立预测模型,对区域物流需求预测进行实证分析,通过与ANN方法、回归分析方法的实证比较研究发现,其预测结果更理想。针对区域物流需求众多影响因素之间的相关性问题,引入主成分分析方法并取得更好的效果。
六、针对传统方法和人工神经网络在处理时间序列预测问题时的缺陷,采用标准SVR方法,从时间序列的角度出发,建立预测模型,对区域物流需求进行预测,通过与ANN方法、回归分析方法的实证比较研究发现,其预测结果更理想。针对区域物流需求中样本重要性不相同问题,引进改进ε-SVR,其预测结果比标准SVR方法更理想。
结论部分,对论文进行归纳总结,提出本文的创新点,同时指出了论文研究中的不足和遗留问题。
Recent years, regional logistics is an important part for modern industries. The role of logistics industry is well recognized in national wide. Because of the important role in 3rd industry, logistics becomes one of the key works of government's planning, and the development of logistics is enhanced as a headstream of new economy incensement. After The Outline of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, regional logistics planning is spread around the country, where rational analysis and precise forecasting are essential issues. One of the critical problems in the face of planner and manager is logistics products demand estimation.
This paper establishes a regional logistics demand model which is demonstrated in an empirical study, on the basis of analysis on influencing factors, such as economic factors of regional logistics. Summary is as follows
1、The connotations of regional logistics and logistics demand have been redefined to obtain more clear insights of their characteristics; regional logistics demand and supply are analyzed using micro-economic theory. And a discussion is presented about impacts of the supply or demand movement on the market balance.
2、The internal mechanism between regional logistics and regional economic is studied:
Firstly, seven aspects are discussed with regard to logistics effects on regional economies development. Regional logistics is not only a protection to economic development, but also can optimizes the industrial structure, improve economic efficiency, improves the investment environment, and enhances the quality of the economy. Therefore, the regional logistics plays a significant role in the regional economic development. In turn, the effects of regional economic on the regional logistics development are discussed in a new form. The emphases is focused on, the regional economic impacts on regional logistics development under the background of economic globalization and regional economic integration.
At the end, the input-output method is integrated to study the internal links between logistics and economic from two angles of the logistics contributions and influences to the economy.
1) Through analysises on the direct consumption coefficient and its matrix, the complete coefficient consumption and its matrix, we can see intuitively the links between logistics industry and the various departments, the influences on departments' developments, leadship to national economy, effects on national economy and so on. After the establishment of logistics direct economy contribution model, the direct economical contribution of every ten thousand Yuan investments in every departments are calculated.
2) The influence of the industrial department as well as the entire national economy on logistics are explained in special details, through studies on the various industrial Department final demand to grow the influence which delivers to the logistics.
3、A general function format of logistics demand is established based on analysis of impacts of economic on logistics. And a novel indices system of regional logistics demand is established, the grey theory was used to analyze the relevance between regional logistics and its major economic influence factor. Shanghai and Sichuan are taken as an example, where the interrelatedness is obtained.
4、Using the co-integration theory in the metrology econometrics, analysis on effects between regional logistics on regional economies development is conducted respectively and quantitatively.
1) In the view of quantitative analysis on effects of regional economies on regional logistics, Shanghai and Sichuan are taken as an example with indices of logarithm value of Sichuan's cargo volume of the circular flow. Relational model between the economy and the logistics grows is established using cooperation theory.
2) In the view of quantitative analysis of effects of regional logistics on regional economies, economic growth rate is described by logarithm value of Sichuan GDP with indices describing increment rate of logistics which are composed of logarithm value of cargo volume of the circular flow, logarithm value of capital investment in transportation, warehousing and the posts and telecommunications communication industry, and the logarithm value of staff population in the transportation, warehousing postal service. Relational model between the Sichuan logistics and the Sichuan economic growth is established using cooperation theory, which has made a quite good progress.
5、From influencing factors' angle, the forecast model is established based on the structure risk minimum criterion SVR method, which is applied on a empirical forecasting of the regional logistics demand. More ideal results can be obtained through ANN method, and the regression analysis method, in view of relevant question between numerous factors that affects regional logistics demand, principal components analysis method is introduced which makes a better progress.
6、In view of limitations of conventional approaches and time sequence forecast method by artificial neural networks, region distribution demand is forecasted using standard SVR method, from time series' angle. Better results are gained through ANN method and regression analysis method. In view of difference between samples of the regional logistics demand, improved-SVR is introduced whose forecasting result is more ideal than standard SVR method.
In the conclusion part, summaries are proposed, such as innovations and insufficiency.
引文
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