无标度供应网格簇及其在汽车产业中应用研究
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摘要
随着经济发展与社会分工的进一步细化，稳定、有效的供应链已成为核心制造企业满足客户需求、构建企业核心竞争力以及抵御市场突发事件和风险的重要依托。进入21世纪以来，企业面临着经济全球化和市场竞争日益加剧，产品或商品交换的方式和渠道日趋复杂多样，供应商、制造商、消费者等的外部环境变得越来越不可预测等一系列问题，全球化和高度复杂的供应网络是供应链发展的一个新动向。基于无标度复杂网络和网格技术的分析方法，研究复杂供应网络的演化规律和特性，有效地诊断和优化供应网络管理，以使企业获得更大的优势，是当前系统科学的一个热点问题。
汽车制造作为传统的制造行业，其供应链研究目前尚处于起步阶段。因此本文以汽车供应链为研究对象，以供应链管理、系统工程、企业运作管理、先进制造技术与计算机技术等多种交叉学科理论与技术为基础，对无标度供应网格簇及其在汽车产业中应用研究展开深入研究，主要包括：无标度供应网格簇概念的定义；无标度供应网格簇的6R特性和相关算法研究；汽车无标度供应网格簇的稳健性诊断分析；汽车无标度供应网格簇的综合绩效评估诊断分析；汽车无标度供应网格簇的优化设计，等等。具体研究内容如下：
（1）无标度供应网格簇基础。基于复杂网络理论、网格技术的分析方法，在以往供应网络的研究基础上，分析无标度供应网络及其簇特性，由此定义无标度供应网格簇新概念。
（2）基于6R体系的无标度供应网格簇模型。区别于传统供应链管理6R体系（RightProduct，Right Time，Right Quantity，Right Quality，Right Status，Right Place），本文全新地提出基于6R（Role（角色），Resources（资源），Regions（位置），Risks（风险），Relationship（关系），Reconfiguration（结构））体系的无标度供应网格簇模型。
（3）6R的相关特性和算法。围绕无标度供应网格簇6R体系，以全球化环境为背景，以供应网络为连接工具，结合无标度模型、网格技术、簇和生命周期等理论，基于改进型质量功能配置（Quality Function Deployment，QFD）方法分析无标度供应网络簇系统供应商选择鲁棒性问题；基于双阈值控制的改进遗传算法研究无标度供应网格簇资源调度策略问题；基于聚类分析和网格法尝试解决无标度供应网格簇系统中物流配送中心的选址问题；研究无标度供应网格簇动态演化过程中的可靠性问题；基于动态蚁群算法研究无标度供应网格簇关系网格设计问题；研究无标度供应网格簇系统的结构特征和模型问题；等等。从而，提出一套对无标度供应网格簇系统进行整体规划、协调、操作和优化的思想方法体系。
（4）汽车无标度供应网格簇稳健性诊断分析。运用复杂网络理论，以图论和社会网络分析方法为基础，结合质量统计学的原理，提出一种基于网络质量控制方法的汽车无标度供应网格簇稳健性分析新方法。从网络质量控制的角度研究汽车无标度供应网格簇的拓扑结构与稳健性，从汽车无标度供应网格簇系统的整体结构进行诊断，为汽车无标度供应网格簇系统的绩效评估诊断分析提供依据。
（5）基于多级动态模糊综合评估方法的汽车无标度供应网格簇综合绩效评估诊断分析。构建四种汽车无标度供应网格簇模式，建立一种新的四层次汽车无标度供应网格簇综合绩效评估指标系统，在综合层次分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process，AHP）和模糊评价法（Fuzzy Evaluation Process，FEP）基础上运用多级动态模糊综合评估方法（MultilevelDynamic Fuzzy Integrated Evaluation，MDFIE）来进行汽车底盘系统无标度供应网格簇综合绩效评估的实证研究。通过分析绩效结果，揭示集成式供应模式为一种最优绩效模式，藉此更准确地进行汽车无标度供应网格簇系统的绩效评估诊断分析。
（6）基于可拓学等理论的汽车无标度供应网格簇优化设计。在汽车无标度供应网格簇综合绩效评估诊断分析的基础上，根据可拓学中物元的相关性、可拓性和蕴含性原则，进行汽车无标度供应网格簇的资源可拓分析；并基于趋势型二次平滑法、灰色预测法及其组合的方法进行汽车无标度供应网格簇的需求预测，分析不同预测方法的效果，合理预测汽车无标度供应网格簇的各种不确定需求，从而为汽车无标度供应网格簇的优化提供一种新的方法。
With the economic development and the further refinement of social division of labor, stable and efficientsupply chain has become an important foundation of core manufacturing enterprises to meet customers’demand, build the core competitiveness of enterprises, and withstand emergencies and risks of the market.Since the beginning of the21st century, enterprises are faced with a series of problems such as economicglobalization, increasingly intensifying market competition, gradually complex and diverse ways and channelsof exchanging products or commodities, and increasingly unpredictable external environment like suppliers,manufacturers, and consumers. Globalization and highly complex supply chain is a new trend in thedevelopment of the supply chain. Based on scale-free complex networks and grid technology to study theevolution and features of complex supply network, diagnose and optimize the management of the supplynetwork so as to enable enterprises to gain greater advantages is a hot issue in the current system science.
Automobile manufacturing is a traditional manufacturing industry, and its supply chain is still in itsinfancy. This paper, taking automotive supply chain as the object of study, based on a variety ofinterdisciplinary theories and technologies such as supply chain management, systems engineering, operationsmanagement, advanced manufacturing technology, and computer technology, carries out in-depth study onscale-free supply grid cluster and optimization of the automobile industry, which mainly includes scale-freesupply grid cluster’s definition, characteristics and related algorithms, automotive scale-free supply gridcluster’ robustness analysis, comprehensive performance evaluation, and optimization, and so on. Detailedresearch contents are as follows:
(1) The basis of scale-free supply grid cluster. Based on the theories of complex networks, analyticalmethods of grid technology, and previous studies on supply network, this study is to analyze scale-free supplynetwork topology characteristics and evolutionary mechanisms, define the new concept of scale-free supplygrid cluster.
(2) Scale-free supply grid cluster model based on the6R system. Different from the traditional supplychain management6R system (right product, right time, right quantity, right quality, right status, right place),this paper put forward a brand-new scale-free supply grid cluster model based on the6R (role, resources,regions, risk, relationship, reconfiguration) system.
(3) Characteristics and algorithms of6R. With the environment of globalization as background and supply network as connectivity tools, combined with theories of scale-free model, grid technology, cluster, and lifecycle, some problems are studied around scale-free supply grid cluster6R system such as the robustness of thesupplier selection based on QFD (Quality Function Deployment) method; scale-free supply grid clusterresource scheduling policy based on dual-threshold controlled, improved genetic algorithm; location problemof logistics distribution center based on clustering analysis and grid method; the reliability in the dynamicevolution of scale-free supply grid cluster is studied; the design of scale-free supply grid cluster based ondynamic ant colony algorithm; structural features and models of scale-free supply grid cluster system;. Thus, asystem of thoughts and methods is proposed for overall planning, coordination, operation, and optimization ofscale-free supply grid cluster.
(4) Robustness analysis of automotive scale-free supply grid cluster. A method for analyzing robustness ofscale-free supply gird cluster based on network quality control is proposed by applying complex networktheories, which is based on graph theoretic approach and social network analysis and combined with theprinciple of quality statistics. To study automobile topology and robustness of the scale-free supply grid clusterfrom the perspective of quality control and to diagnose the overall structure of the automobile scale-free supplygrid cluster system provide a basis for performance evaluation.
(5) Automobile scale-free supply grid cluster performance evaluation based on MDFIE (MultilevelDynamic Fuzzy Integrated Evaluation). Build four scale-free supply grid cluster modes, design MDFIE basedon AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and FEP (Fuzzy Evaluation Process), conduct empirical research intocomprehensive performance evaluation of scale-free supply grid cluster in automotive chassis system, revealthat integrated supply model is the optimal performance mode by analyzing evaluation result, and therebyprovide a more accurate diagnostic analysis of the automotive scale-free supply grid cluster systemperformance.
(6) Automobile scale-free supply grid cluster optimization method based on extenics. An extenics-basedautomobile scale-free supply grid cluster optimization model is proposed through diagnostic analysis ofperformance evaluation of the automobile scale-free supply grid cluster. Resource extension analysis of theautomobile scale-free supply grid cluster is conducted based on the principles of correlation, extension andinclusion in extenics to find out the optimal mode of automobile scale-free supply grid cluster; demandforecasting is taken with the combination of second exponential smoothing method and prediction toascertain the relative error between different prediction methods and analyze the effect of different predictionmethods, so as to provide a brand-new method for the optimization of automobile scale-free supply grid cluster.
汽车制造作为传统的制造行业，其供应链研究目前尚处于起步阶段。因此本文以汽车供应链为研究对象，以供应链管理、系统工程、企业运作管理、先进制造技术与计算机技术等多种交叉学科理论与技术为基础，对无标度供应网格簇及其在汽车产业中应用研究展开深入研究，主要包括：无标度供应网格簇概念的定义；无标度供应网格簇的6R特性和相关算法研究；汽车无标度供应网格簇的稳健性诊断分析；汽车无标度供应网格簇的综合绩效评估诊断分析；汽车无标度供应网格簇的优化设计，等等。具体研究内容如下：
（1）无标度供应网格簇基础。基于复杂网络理论、网格技术的分析方法，在以往供应网络的研究基础上，分析无标度供应网络及其簇特性，由此定义无标度供应网格簇新概念。
（2）基于6R体系的无标度供应网格簇模型。区别于传统供应链管理6R体系（RightProduct，Right Time，Right Quantity，Right Quality，Right Status，Right Place），本文全新地提出基于6R（Role（角色），Resources（资源），Regions（位置），Risks（风险），Relationship（关系），Reconfiguration（结构））体系的无标度供应网格簇模型。
（3）6R的相关特性和算法。围绕无标度供应网格簇6R体系，以全球化环境为背景，以供应网络为连接工具，结合无标度模型、网格技术、簇和生命周期等理论，基于改进型质量功能配置（Quality Function Deployment，QFD）方法分析无标度供应网络簇系统供应商选择鲁棒性问题；基于双阈值控制的改进遗传算法研究无标度供应网格簇资源调度策略问题；基于聚类分析和网格法尝试解决无标度供应网格簇系统中物流配送中心的选址问题；研究无标度供应网格簇动态演化过程中的可靠性问题；基于动态蚁群算法研究无标度供应网格簇关系网格设计问题；研究无标度供应网格簇系统的结构特征和模型问题；等等。从而，提出一套对无标度供应网格簇系统进行整体规划、协调、操作和优化的思想方法体系。
（4）汽车无标度供应网格簇稳健性诊断分析。运用复杂网络理论，以图论和社会网络分析方法为基础，结合质量统计学的原理，提出一种基于网络质量控制方法的汽车无标度供应网格簇稳健性分析新方法。从网络质量控制的角度研究汽车无标度供应网格簇的拓扑结构与稳健性，从汽车无标度供应网格簇系统的整体结构进行诊断，为汽车无标度供应网格簇系统的绩效评估诊断分析提供依据。
（5）基于多级动态模糊综合评估方法的汽车无标度供应网格簇综合绩效评估诊断分析。构建四种汽车无标度供应网格簇模式，建立一种新的四层次汽车无标度供应网格簇综合绩效评估指标系统，在综合层次分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process，AHP）和模糊评价法（Fuzzy Evaluation Process，FEP）基础上运用多级动态模糊综合评估方法（MultilevelDynamic Fuzzy Integrated Evaluation，MDFIE）来进行汽车底盘系统无标度供应网格簇综合绩效评估的实证研究。通过分析绩效结果，揭示集成式供应模式为一种最优绩效模式，藉此更准确地进行汽车无标度供应网格簇系统的绩效评估诊断分析。
（6）基于可拓学等理论的汽车无标度供应网格簇优化设计。在汽车无标度供应网格簇综合绩效评估诊断分析的基础上，根据可拓学中物元的相关性、可拓性和蕴含性原则，进行汽车无标度供应网格簇的资源可拓分析；并基于趋势型二次平滑法、灰色预测法及其组合的方法进行汽车无标度供应网格簇的需求预测，分析不同预测方法的效果，合理预测汽车无标度供应网格簇的各种不确定需求，从而为汽车无标度供应网格簇的优化提供一种新的方法。
With the economic development and the further refinement of social division of labor, stable and efficientsupply chain has become an important foundation of core manufacturing enterprises to meet customers’demand, build the core competitiveness of enterprises, and withstand emergencies and risks of the market.Since the beginning of the21st century, enterprises are faced with a series of problems such as economicglobalization, increasingly intensifying market competition, gradually complex and diverse ways and channelsof exchanging products or commodities, and increasingly unpredictable external environment like suppliers,manufacturers, and consumers. Globalization and highly complex supply chain is a new trend in thedevelopment of the supply chain. Based on scale-free complex networks and grid technology to study theevolution and features of complex supply network, diagnose and optimize the management of the supplynetwork so as to enable enterprises to gain greater advantages is a hot issue in the current system science.
Automobile manufacturing is a traditional manufacturing industry, and its supply chain is still in itsinfancy. This paper, taking automotive supply chain as the object of study, based on a variety ofinterdisciplinary theories and technologies such as supply chain management, systems engineering, operationsmanagement, advanced manufacturing technology, and computer technology, carries out in-depth study onscale-free supply grid cluster and optimization of the automobile industry, which mainly includes scale-freesupply grid cluster’s definition, characteristics and related algorithms, automotive scale-free supply gridcluster’ robustness analysis, comprehensive performance evaluation, and optimization, and so on. Detailedresearch contents are as follows:
(1) The basis of scale-free supply grid cluster. Based on the theories of complex networks, analyticalmethods of grid technology, and previous studies on supply network, this study is to analyze scale-free supplynetwork topology characteristics and evolutionary mechanisms, define the new concept of scale-free supplygrid cluster.
(2) Scale-free supply grid cluster model based on the6R system. Different from the traditional supplychain management6R system (right product, right time, right quantity, right quality, right status, right place),this paper put forward a brand-new scale-free supply grid cluster model based on the6R (role, resources,regions, risk, relationship, reconfiguration) system.
(3) Characteristics and algorithms of6R. With the environment of globalization as background and supply network as connectivity tools, combined with theories of scale-free model, grid technology, cluster, and lifecycle, some problems are studied around scale-free supply grid cluster6R system such as the robustness of thesupplier selection based on QFD (Quality Function Deployment) method; scale-free supply grid clusterresource scheduling policy based on dual-threshold controlled, improved genetic algorithm; location problemof logistics distribution center based on clustering analysis and grid method; the reliability in the dynamicevolution of scale-free supply grid cluster is studied; the design of scale-free supply grid cluster based ondynamic ant colony algorithm; structural features and models of scale-free supply grid cluster system;. Thus, asystem of thoughts and methods is proposed for overall planning, coordination, operation, and optimization ofscale-free supply grid cluster.
(4) Robustness analysis of automotive scale-free supply grid cluster. A method for analyzing robustness ofscale-free supply gird cluster based on network quality control is proposed by applying complex networktheories, which is based on graph theoretic approach and social network analysis and combined with theprinciple of quality statistics. To study automobile topology and robustness of the scale-free supply grid clusterfrom the perspective of quality control and to diagnose the overall structure of the automobile scale-free supplygrid cluster system provide a basis for performance evaluation.
(5) Automobile scale-free supply grid cluster performance evaluation based on MDFIE (MultilevelDynamic Fuzzy Integrated Evaluation). Build four scale-free supply grid cluster modes, design MDFIE basedon AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and FEP (Fuzzy Evaluation Process), conduct empirical research intocomprehensive performance evaluation of scale-free supply grid cluster in automotive chassis system, revealthat integrated supply model is the optimal performance mode by analyzing evaluation result, and therebyprovide a more accurate diagnostic analysis of the automotive scale-free supply grid cluster systemperformance.
(6) Automobile scale-free supply grid cluster optimization method based on extenics. An extenics-basedautomobile scale-free supply grid cluster optimization model is proposed through diagnostic analysis ofperformance evaluation of the automobile scale-free supply grid cluster. Resource extension analysis of theautomobile scale-free supply grid cluster is conducted based on the principles of correlation, extension andinclusion in extenics to find out the optimal mode of automobile scale-free supply grid cluster; demandforecasting is taken with the combination of second exponential smoothing method and prediction toascertain the relative error between different prediction methods and analyze the effect of different predictionmethods, so as to provide a brand-new method for the optimization of automobile scale-free supply grid cluster.
引文
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