基于AEZ模型的我国棉花气候生产潜力研究
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摘要
本文根据全国614个气象站点1974-2003年30年的气象基础数据,我国DEM数据,借助Excel、Access数据库软件和ArcGis 9.3软件计算、整理气象数据,通过理论分析计算得出各气象站点总生育期和各个生育阶段的太阳总辐射、光合有效辐射、日照时数、日照百分率、平均气温、极端最高和最低气温、界限积温(0℃、5℃、10℃或20℃)等气候要素数据;选用五日滑动平均法(国内常用方法之一)推算出气温稳定通过某界限温度的终日,结合棉花完成各生育阶段所需的积温,并借助用Visual Basic6.0设计的程序推算出棉花各生育阶段对应的始日,由所得的始日和终日计算出农业生态地区模型,即AEZ(Agro-ecological Zone)模型,的重要参数之一—生育期日数,再根据相关资料和文献选择适合我国棉花的其它模型参数,利用国际上广泛采用的AEZ模型估算各个气象站点各个生育阶段的棉花光合生产潜力,再用温度和水分有效系数逐级订正得到光温和降水生产潜力。
对于上述计算所得的气候要素和气候生产潜力数据用ArcGis9.3软件分析和可视化表达。首先应用空间统计、空间自相关以及半变异函数等方法对气候要素(包括适合我国棉花生长的三个气候要素条件)数据进行空间自相关分析,探测数据分布特征和趋势面,如有必要对变量做转换,并剔出趋势面。对于符合插值条件的数据尝试运用多种空间插值方法(如反距离加权插值、多项式拟合插值、样条函数插值、克里格插值等),选择插值参数进行空间插值,并利用误差检验方法进行精度分析,选取合适的空间插值方法和参数插值生成栅格图,再通过栅格计算器运算、编辑等处理生成我国棉花种植界线面图层;把各级潜力数据的插值结果导出为矢量图层,并与所得的棉花种植界限面图层做叠置分析取交集,得到我国棉花种植区的各级气候生产潜力分布图。
研究结果表明,我国各农业生态区棉花各级生产潜力存在明显差异,全国皮棉光合潜力平均值为62289.01kg/hm2,高值区分布于山东、云南和新疆等地,低值区分布于吉林、湖南和贵州等地,全国皮棉光温潜力平均值为4207.541kg/hm2,高值区分布于四川、河南和新疆等地,低值区分布于吉林、辽宁和天津等地,全国皮棉降水生产潜力平均值为3232.795kg/hm2,高值区分布于贵州、浙江和福建等地,低值区分布于新疆等地,导致新疆和贵州等地的降水与光温生产潜力相差悬殊的原因主要在于降水的区域性差异造成的,另一方面由于引水灌溉可以弥补降水资源不足的影响,所以新疆等地的实际皮棉单产反而较高;在棉花各生育阶段中花铃期的光温生产潜力占同期光合生产潜力的比例最大,达7.35%左右,最小比例在苗期。另外,棉花的光合生产潜力形成主要在花铃期和吐絮期,分别占31.49%和28.52%;光温生产潜力形成也主要在花铃期和吐絮期,分别占34.84%和27.62%;从各区皮棉实际平均单产来看,较高产区在内蒙古、甘肃、吉林、辽宁和新疆等地,最高达到光温生产潜力的83.35%,较低产区在四川、重庆、云南和贵州等地,最低约占光温生产潜力的8.5%。在此基础上结合我国棉花生产实际计算了我国棉花增产潜力,在阴雨云雾多的地区增产潜力较难实现,而在降水较少但是能灌溉的地区增产潜力较易实现,从全国来看,平均相对增产潜力较大(69.44%)。最后为提高我国棉花单产以保障棉花安全提供参考。
This paper is based on the weather site by the National 614 1974-2003 30-year meteorological data base, the Chinese DEM data, using Excel, Access database software and ArcGIS 9.3 software calculation, order of meteorological data. It obtains the data by calculating the meteorological stations in solar radiation, in photosynthetic active radiation, sunshine hours, sunshine percentage, average temperature, accumulated temperature and other climatic factors; using the moving average method used on the 5th (one of the methods commonly used in China)it calculates the temperature stability of the temperature through a boundary all day long , combines with the completion of different growth stages of cotton accumulated temperature, and with the design process using Visual Basic 6.0 calculates the growth stage of cotton each day corresponding to the beginning, by the day and all day from the beginning of agro-ecological regions calculated model(ie AEZ : Agro-ecological Zone model) one of the important parameters-growth period, and then chooses the other model parameters of cotton based on relevant information and documentation, using the international AEZ model widely used in all meteorological stations in the various it estimates cotton growth stage photosynthetic production potential, then by using the temperature and effective coefficient of water it revises and gets the sequential light moderate rain production potential.
The calculated production potential of climate factors and climate data is expressed with the ArcGIS 9.3 analysis and visualization software . First, it applies the spatial statistics, spatial autocorrelation and semi-variogram and other methods to climate factors (including the three climatic factor conditions suited to China cotton growth) data for spatial autocorrelation analysis, the data distribution characteristics and trend surface, in which if it is necessary to change variable quantity, it can eliminate trend surface. For the conditions of the interpolation of data it tries to use a variety of spatial interpolation methods (such as inverse distance weighted interpolation, polynomial interpolation, spline interpolation, kriging interpolation ,etc.) to select the interpolation parameters of spatial interpolation, error analysis and interpolation accuracy of this model, the appropriate interpolation methods and parameters of interpolation generates grid maps. Through calculator and grid computing, editing, processing it generates surface boundary layer of cotton planting; it exports the vector layers from the data of interpolation results at all levels, and does overlay analysis to take the intersection with the income limits of surface layers of cotton cultivation .Lastly ,it gets planting area of cotton production potential at all levels of weather maps.
The results show that the agro-ecological zones of China cotton production potential at all levels, there are significant differences in photosynthetic potential of the national average lint 62289.01 kg/hm2, high values found in Shandong, Yunnan and Xinjiang, the low area located in Jilin, Hunan and Guizhou, the country the potential of light and temperature average lint 4207.541 kg/hm2, high values found in Sichuan, Henan and Xinjiang, the low area located in Jilin, Liaoning and Tianjin, the national cotton production potential of precipitation an average of 3232.795 kg/hm2, high values found in Guizhou, Zhejiang and Fujian, and other low areas located in Xinjiang, the Xinjiang and Guizhou.The reason leading to disparity of precipitation and the production potential of light and temperature ,on one hand,is mainly due to rainfall caused by regional differences, on the other hand because of irrigation making up for the lack of precipitation, the actual lint Xinjiang, but a higher yield; at different growth stages of cotton flowering and boll production potential of the light and temperature accountes for the largest share of production potential in the same period of photosynthetic, up to about 7.35%, the smallest proportion of seedlings. In addition, the potential photosynthetic production is during the cotton flowering and boll formation period and mainly in the boll opening stage, which accountes for 31.49% and 28.52%; the production potential of light and temperature are mainly in the flowering and boll formation period and boll opening period, accounting for 34.84% and 27.62%; seen from the districts of the actual average yield to lint, high values is found in Inner Mongolia, Gansu ,Jilin , Liaoning and Xinjiang, the most up to about 83.35% of the production potential of light and temperature, the low area is located in Sichuan, Yunnan and Guizhou , the list to about 83.35% of it. On this basis, combined with the actual calculation of cotton potential of China's cotton yield, In the rain clouds and more difficult to achieve the potential of regional output, while little precipitation, but can yield potential of irrigated areas easier to achieve, from a national perspective, the average yield great opposite potential(69.44%). It provides for Chinese agricultural production and the development of strategic of cotton with basic information.
对于上述计算所得的气候要素和气候生产潜力数据用ArcGis9.3软件分析和可视化表达。首先应用空间统计、空间自相关以及半变异函数等方法对气候要素(包括适合我国棉花生长的三个气候要素条件)数据进行空间自相关分析,探测数据分布特征和趋势面,如有必要对变量做转换,并剔出趋势面。对于符合插值条件的数据尝试运用多种空间插值方法(如反距离加权插值、多项式拟合插值、样条函数插值、克里格插值等),选择插值参数进行空间插值,并利用误差检验方法进行精度分析,选取合适的空间插值方法和参数插值生成栅格图,再通过栅格计算器运算、编辑等处理生成我国棉花种植界线面图层;把各级潜力数据的插值结果导出为矢量图层,并与所得的棉花种植界限面图层做叠置分析取交集,得到我国棉花种植区的各级气候生产潜力分布图。
研究结果表明,我国各农业生态区棉花各级生产潜力存在明显差异,全国皮棉光合潜力平均值为62289.01kg/hm2,高值区分布于山东、云南和新疆等地,低值区分布于吉林、湖南和贵州等地,全国皮棉光温潜力平均值为4207.541kg/hm2,高值区分布于四川、河南和新疆等地,低值区分布于吉林、辽宁和天津等地,全国皮棉降水生产潜力平均值为3232.795kg/hm2,高值区分布于贵州、浙江和福建等地,低值区分布于新疆等地,导致新疆和贵州等地的降水与光温生产潜力相差悬殊的原因主要在于降水的区域性差异造成的,另一方面由于引水灌溉可以弥补降水资源不足的影响,所以新疆等地的实际皮棉单产反而较高;在棉花各生育阶段中花铃期的光温生产潜力占同期光合生产潜力的比例最大,达7.35%左右,最小比例在苗期。另外,棉花的光合生产潜力形成主要在花铃期和吐絮期,分别占31.49%和28.52%;光温生产潜力形成也主要在花铃期和吐絮期,分别占34.84%和27.62%;从各区皮棉实际平均单产来看,较高产区在内蒙古、甘肃、吉林、辽宁和新疆等地,最高达到光温生产潜力的83.35%,较低产区在四川、重庆、云南和贵州等地,最低约占光温生产潜力的8.5%。在此基础上结合我国棉花生产实际计算了我国棉花增产潜力,在阴雨云雾多的地区增产潜力较难实现,而在降水较少但是能灌溉的地区增产潜力较易实现,从全国来看,平均相对增产潜力较大(69.44%)。最后为提高我国棉花单产以保障棉花安全提供参考。
This paper is based on the weather site by the National 614 1974-2003 30-year meteorological data base, the Chinese DEM data, using Excel, Access database software and ArcGIS 9.3 software calculation, order of meteorological data. It obtains the data by calculating the meteorological stations in solar radiation, in photosynthetic active radiation, sunshine hours, sunshine percentage, average temperature, accumulated temperature and other climatic factors; using the moving average method used on the 5th (one of the methods commonly used in China)it calculates the temperature stability of the temperature through a boundary all day long , combines with the completion of different growth stages of cotton accumulated temperature, and with the design process using Visual Basic 6.0 calculates the growth stage of cotton each day corresponding to the beginning, by the day and all day from the beginning of agro-ecological regions calculated model(ie AEZ : Agro-ecological Zone model) one of the important parameters-growth period, and then chooses the other model parameters of cotton based on relevant information and documentation, using the international AEZ model widely used in all meteorological stations in the various it estimates cotton growth stage photosynthetic production potential, then by using the temperature and effective coefficient of water it revises and gets the sequential light moderate rain production potential.
The calculated production potential of climate factors and climate data is expressed with the ArcGIS 9.3 analysis and visualization software . First, it applies the spatial statistics, spatial autocorrelation and semi-variogram and other methods to climate factors (including the three climatic factor conditions suited to China cotton growth) data for spatial autocorrelation analysis, the data distribution characteristics and trend surface, in which if it is necessary to change variable quantity, it can eliminate trend surface. For the conditions of the interpolation of data it tries to use a variety of spatial interpolation methods (such as inverse distance weighted interpolation, polynomial interpolation, spline interpolation, kriging interpolation ,etc.) to select the interpolation parameters of spatial interpolation, error analysis and interpolation accuracy of this model, the appropriate interpolation methods and parameters of interpolation generates grid maps. Through calculator and grid computing, editing, processing it generates surface boundary layer of cotton planting; it exports the vector layers from the data of interpolation results at all levels, and does overlay analysis to take the intersection with the income limits of surface layers of cotton cultivation .Lastly ,it gets planting area of cotton production potential at all levels of weather maps.
The results show that the agro-ecological zones of China cotton production potential at all levels, there are significant differences in photosynthetic potential of the national average lint 62289.01 kg/hm2, high values found in Shandong, Yunnan and Xinjiang, the low area located in Jilin, Hunan and Guizhou, the country the potential of light and temperature average lint 4207.541 kg/hm2, high values found in Sichuan, Henan and Xinjiang, the low area located in Jilin, Liaoning and Tianjin, the national cotton production potential of precipitation an average of 3232.795 kg/hm2, high values found in Guizhou, Zhejiang and Fujian, and other low areas located in Xinjiang, the Xinjiang and Guizhou.The reason leading to disparity of precipitation and the production potential of light and temperature ,on one hand,is mainly due to rainfall caused by regional differences, on the other hand because of irrigation making up for the lack of precipitation, the actual lint Xinjiang, but a higher yield; at different growth stages of cotton flowering and boll production potential of the light and temperature accountes for the largest share of production potential in the same period of photosynthetic, up to about 7.35%, the smallest proportion of seedlings. In addition, the potential photosynthetic production is during the cotton flowering and boll formation period and mainly in the boll opening stage, which accountes for 31.49% and 28.52%; the production potential of light and temperature are mainly in the flowering and boll formation period and boll opening period, accounting for 34.84% and 27.62%; seen from the districts of the actual average yield to lint, high values is found in Inner Mongolia, Gansu ,Jilin , Liaoning and Xinjiang, the most up to about 83.35% of the production potential of light and temperature, the low area is located in Sichuan, Yunnan and Guizhou , the list to about 83.35% of it. On this basis, combined with the actual calculation of cotton potential of China's cotton yield, In the rain clouds and more difficult to achieve the potential of regional output, while little precipitation, but can yield potential of irrigated areas easier to achieve, from a national perspective, the average yield great opposite potential(69.44%). It provides for Chinese agricultural production and the development of strategic of cotton with basic information.
引文
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