盐岩地下油气储库风险分析与评估研究
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摘要
随着世界能源短缺这一日益凸显的危机,我国也开始加大能源储备的力度。盐岩以其良好的蠕变特性、低渗透性和损伤自我恢复性而被广泛用于地下油气能源储备,虽然目前国内外对盐岩力学特性的研究成果较多,但关于盐岩地下油气储库风险分析的研究报道却尚不多见。尤其相较于国外巨厚盐丘的优良地质,我国盐层厚度小、夹层多、埋深浅,这些缺陷都给我国的盐岩地下油气储库安全运营带来了不同程度的安全隐患。因此为了探讨盐岩地下油气储库的风险机制,本文依托于国家重点基础研究发展计划(973课题)—《油气储库群运营中的灾变风险评估与调控机制》,以江苏金坛盐岩储气库为工程应用背景,开展了盐岩地下油气储库的风险分析与评估研究,有效揭示了储库全寿命阶段的风险因子,并对储库全寿命阶段的风险进行了分析与评估,为储库安全运营提供了有效的规避指导意见。本文的研究内容和创新点如下：
第一,明确了盐岩地下油气储库的风险定义,对储库全寿命阶段的风险因子进行了辨识,得到了层状盐岩地下油气储库从规划、设计、施工到运营阶段的全寿命周期的主要风险因子。
第二,建立了盐岩地下油气储库运营期库群破坏、油气渗漏、地表沉陷的故障树模型,将储库运营期的风险因子按其影响程度进行了排序,获得了影响油气储库运营期安全的17个主要风险因子。
第三,开展了盐岩地下油储库运营期风险因子影响程度的专家调查。通过模糊综合评价法,分别对盐岩地下油气储库运营期风险因子造成的库群破坏、油气渗漏、地表沉陷进行了主要风险因子的影响程度等级划分。
第四,基于结构失效概率的评判标准,建立了盐岩地下油气储库的失效等级标准,并基于典型风险因素腔体高径比变化和不同储气内压为典型工况,进行了腔体的失效等级分析。
第五,提出了盐岩地下油气储库运营期的风险控制基本要求,并分别提出了储库运营期的库群破坏、油气渗漏、地表沉陷风险事故的风险控制技术措施。
With the increasingly serious problem of energy shortage in the world, the strategic reserve of energy has been performed in our country. Based on the good characters of creep property, low permeability and self-healing of damage, Salt rock has been widely used in energy storage of oil and gas. Nowadays, most research are concerned on the mechanical properties of salt rock at home and abroad, but the studies about risk analysis on the salt cavern storage are still few. Especially compared with the thick salt dome of abroad, the salt bed has the characters of small thickness, multi-laminated, and shallow depth in our country. The hidden troubles have been brought to the safe operation of the salt cavern storage. So in order to explore the risk mechanism of salt cavern, in the background of salt rock gas storage named JINTAN in JiangSu province under the support of National Key Basic Development Plan(973 subject)-《Risk assessment of catastrophe and regulation mechanism for soil and gas storage in the operation process》, the risk analysis and evaluation of the salt cavern storage has been carried out in the life cycle, which will be an effective guidance for the risk elusion of salt cavern storage during the operational period. The content and innovative points included in the article are presented as follows:
In the first place, the risk definition of the salt cavern storage is made clear. The risk factors of the salt cavern storage in its life cycle are identified; especially the main risk factors during the planning period, design period, construction period and operational period are gained.
In the second place, Fault tree analysis (FTA) is applied to establishing the analytical models on cavern failure, surface subsidence and storage leakage during the operational period. The risk factors during the operational period are sorted on their influence level, and the 17 main risk factors influencing the safety of the salt cavern storage seriously are got.
In the third place, expert investigation is carried out to get the influence level statistics data of the risk factors of the salt cavern storage during the operational period. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) is applied to obtain the degree classification of the risk factors on cavern failure, surface subsidence and storage leakage.
In the fourth place, based on the criteria of the structural failure probability, the failure grade standards of salt cavern storage are established. And according to the cases, that the cavern diameter ratio is changed and the inside pressure of the salt cavern is different, the failure standards of the cavern are plotted out.
Last but not least, the basic requirements of risk control of the salt cavern storage during the operational period are proposed. The measures of risk control of cavern failure, surface subsidence and storage leakage are also proposed.
第一,明确了盐岩地下油气储库的风险定义,对储库全寿命阶段的风险因子进行了辨识,得到了层状盐岩地下油气储库从规划、设计、施工到运营阶段的全寿命周期的主要风险因子。
第二,建立了盐岩地下油气储库运营期库群破坏、油气渗漏、地表沉陷的故障树模型,将储库运营期的风险因子按其影响程度进行了排序,获得了影响油气储库运营期安全的17个主要风险因子。
第三,开展了盐岩地下油储库运营期风险因子影响程度的专家调查。通过模糊综合评价法,分别对盐岩地下油气储库运营期风险因子造成的库群破坏、油气渗漏、地表沉陷进行了主要风险因子的影响程度等级划分。
第四,基于结构失效概率的评判标准,建立了盐岩地下油气储库的失效等级标准,并基于典型风险因素腔体高径比变化和不同储气内压为典型工况,进行了腔体的失效等级分析。
第五,提出了盐岩地下油气储库运营期的风险控制基本要求,并分别提出了储库运营期的库群破坏、油气渗漏、地表沉陷风险事故的风险控制技术措施。
With the increasingly serious problem of energy shortage in the world, the strategic reserve of energy has been performed in our country. Based on the good characters of creep property, low permeability and self-healing of damage, Salt rock has been widely used in energy storage of oil and gas. Nowadays, most research are concerned on the mechanical properties of salt rock at home and abroad, but the studies about risk analysis on the salt cavern storage are still few. Especially compared with the thick salt dome of abroad, the salt bed has the characters of small thickness, multi-laminated, and shallow depth in our country. The hidden troubles have been brought to the safe operation of the salt cavern storage. So in order to explore the risk mechanism of salt cavern, in the background of salt rock gas storage named JINTAN in JiangSu province under the support of National Key Basic Development Plan(973 subject)-《Risk assessment of catastrophe and regulation mechanism for soil and gas storage in the operation process》, the risk analysis and evaluation of the salt cavern storage has been carried out in the life cycle, which will be an effective guidance for the risk elusion of salt cavern storage during the operational period. The content and innovative points included in the article are presented as follows:
In the first place, the risk definition of the salt cavern storage is made clear. The risk factors of the salt cavern storage in its life cycle are identified; especially the main risk factors during the planning period, design period, construction period and operational period are gained.
In the second place, Fault tree analysis (FTA) is applied to establishing the analytical models on cavern failure, surface subsidence and storage leakage during the operational period. The risk factors during the operational period are sorted on their influence level, and the 17 main risk factors influencing the safety of the salt cavern storage seriously are got.
In the third place, expert investigation is carried out to get the influence level statistics data of the risk factors of the salt cavern storage during the operational period. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) is applied to obtain the degree classification of the risk factors on cavern failure, surface subsidence and storage leakage.
In the fourth place, based on the criteria of the structural failure probability, the failure grade standards of salt cavern storage are established. And according to the cases, that the cavern diameter ratio is changed and the inside pressure of the salt cavern is different, the failure standards of the cavern are plotted out.
Last but not least, the basic requirements of risk control of the salt cavern storage during the operational period are proposed. The measures of risk control of cavern failure, surface subsidence and storage leakage are also proposed.
引文
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