中国社会游资形成与演变过程中的财政影响机制研究
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摘要
当前,活跃于国内各市场的游资已经成为我国宏观经济调控过程中不得不面临的一个难题。从活动规律来看,近几年,我国游资所表现出的流动性非常之强,在短期内引发了房地产市场价格暴涨以及“蒜你狠”、“豆你玩”等一系列投机炒作现象,逐渐引起了政府与公众的广泛关注。并且,各个领域此消彼长的投机现象还表明,我国国内已经存在着较大规模的游资存量,它们以获取投机收益为目的在各个市场之间高速流动,虽然其还未达到引致泡沫经济的程度,但已经开始对正常的市场秩序产生严重的影响。
针对上述游资难题,本文以中国经济转轨中财政作用的特殊性为背景,从近几年投机行为频现、资本过剩等特殊现象出发,着重研究了财政体制与政策因素与近些年游资扩张之间的联系与影响机制,并基于财政因素可能影响游资变化的理论假设进行了实证分析。具体地,本文的分析主要包括以下几部分内容：第一,在对研究的核心问题——游资概念进行准确界定的基础上,着重介绍近些年积极财政政策的实施轨迹同当前投机频发之间现象上的关联,并对财政可能影响游资的途径进行简要概述。第二,通过对相关的文献进行梳理,主要对宏观经济政策与游资关系的文献进行了总结；第三,以中国经济转轨为背景,分析在中国的特殊体制性约束下,财政与我国社会游资之间的联系和影响途径,构建了我国财政与游资之间互动机制的理论框架。第四,应用价格解析方法,结合不同投机品市场的特点对我国社会游资总量进行测算。第五,通过对1978年以来我国财政工具运用情况的梳理,基于对游资变化趋势的分析,提出了财政影响游资变化这一理论的经验证据。第六,通过计量方法对财政与游资关系所提出的理论假设进行实证分析和检验。第七,对游资投机的重点领域——房地产业投机泡沫进行了单独研究。第八,根据实证分析的结果提出了合理控制游资、削弱游资负面影响的政策建议。
本文的主要研究结论如下：(1)在我国游资变动的诸多影响因素中,财政在其中的作用不容忽视。按时间顺序来说,起初,财政对游资的影响比较间接,财政体制通过作用于宏观经济中的预期、激励机制等方式对游资的产生提供了制度基础和资金准备；随着政府财政能力的逐渐提升,对游资变动来说,政府财政体制的作用逐渐转移到政策层面,经济体中出现了财政资金流入虚拟经济的渠道；到国际金融危机爆发后,随着政府财政投资的再次扩张,财政政策因素已经成为近期游资积累与集中的重要推动力。(2)基于本文第4章对中国国内社会游资规模的测算,我国游资规模的变动轨迹并未表现出周期性的特征,反而与财政政策的方向呈现出较强的一致性。(3)通过以财政规章制度数据作为体制因素的替代变量进行的回归分析,结论表明财政体制非规范性的存在是能够影响到游资变化的,而财政预算资金虽然并没有大规模地成为游资的来源,却可能在非规范性的背景下流入房地产市场或是引起实体经济向房地产投机的资金流动。(4)就财政投资对社会游资变化所产生的影响来说,结论显示,财政投资的扩张会带来社会游资总规模的增长,并且中央财政投资、地方财政投资、国有企业投资以及预算投资均己成为游资变动的原因。(5)以房地产市场内的游资为研究重点,本文还发现,当前土地财政已不仅仅通过成本的形式转移为泡沫的一部分,更是成为我国房地产泡沫形成的根源之一。此外,非线性的回归结果还发现,虽然财政扩张并未引起游资总规模的加速扩张,但却会引起游资向房地产投机领域的加速流动。
The speculative capital in the domestic market has become a problem which we have to face in the process of China's macro-economic regulation. In the past few years, the speculative capital flow has showed very strong, which led to the speculation phenomenon of skyrocketing real estate and primary products market prices in the short term. And it caused widespread concern in the government and the public gradually. Furthermore, all areas of the shift in the speculative phenomenon also show that our domestic large-scale speculative capital stock, which is high-speed flowing between the various markets for speculative gains. Although the bubble has not yet led to extent of bubble economy, it has begun to have a serious impact on the normal market order.
For the problem above, this paper focuses on the link and the impact mechanism between the financial system and policy factors in speculation expansion process recently, and then makes the empirical analysis which is based on financial factors that may affect the speculative capital change. Specifically, this paper include the following components: first, based on precisely defined, we study the core of the research problem-speculative capital concept, then we focuses on the implementation of the proactive fiscal policy in recent years'trajectory with the current speculative frequent association between phenomenon and a brief overview of the financial impact of speculative capital. Second, by combing the relevant literature, we summarized the main macroeconomic policy with speculative capital. Third, the context of China's economic transition analysis of under special institutional constraints, the contact between the Finance and China's social speculative capital and impact way to build the theoretical framework of the mechanism of interaction between our financial and speculative capital. Fourth, we're going to apply price analytical method, combined with the characteristics of the different speculative products market is calculated on the total of China's social speculative capital. Fifth, by combing tool use since1978, China's financial situation, based on the analysis of the trend of speculative capital, proposed the empirical evidence of the financial impact of speculative capital change theory. Sixth, through the measurement of empirical analysis and test the theoretical assumptions of the relationship between fiscal and speculative capital. Seventh, we separate research focus areas-real estate speculative bubble of speculative capital speculation. Eighth, according to the results of the empirical analysis of the reasonable control of the speculative capital, weaken the negative impact of speculative capital policy recommendations.
The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1) the role of finance in which many influencing factors in Chin's speculative capital changes can not be ignored. In chronological order, at first, the financial impact of speculative capital indirect financial system through the expected role of macroeconomic incentives of speculative capital generated institutional basis and funds to prepare, and Gradually enhanced with the ability of government finances, the speculative capital movements in the role of the government financial system gradually shifted to a policy level, a the Financial capital inflows virtual economy channels economies, and to the international financial crisis, with the re-expansion of the government financial investment, fiscal policy factors has become an important driving force of the recent speculative capital accumulated and concentrated.(2) Based on this article in Chapter4of the estimates of the scale of China's domestic social speculative capital, track of changes in the scale of speculative capital in China did not exhibit cyclical characteristics, instead showing a strong consistency with the direction of fiscal policy.(3) regression analysis conducted by as alternative institutional factors variables to the financial rules and regulations data, the conclusions show that the presence of non-normative financial system is able to affect the speculative capital changes, budget funds to be no large-scale speculative capital sources, they may flow into the real estate market in the non-normative context or cause the real economy, the flow of funds to the real estate speculation.(4) For the purposes of the financial investment the impact of changes in the social speculative capital, the conclusions show that the financial investment in the expansion will bring the total scale of social speculative capital growth, and the central financial investment, local financial investment, investment in state-owned enterprises, as well as budget investments are has become the speculative capital movements.(5) to the speculative capital in the real estate market with a focus on paper also found that land finance not only by the cost in the form of transfer of part of the bubble, but also become one of the root causes of the formation of China's real estate bubble. In addition, the non-linear regression results also found that fiscal expansion does not cause the total size of the accelerated expansion of the speculative capital, but it will cause accelerated flow of speculative capital to the field of real estate speculation.
针对上述游资难题,本文以中国经济转轨中财政作用的特殊性为背景,从近几年投机行为频现、资本过剩等特殊现象出发,着重研究了财政体制与政策因素与近些年游资扩张之间的联系与影响机制,并基于财政因素可能影响游资变化的理论假设进行了实证分析。具体地,本文的分析主要包括以下几部分内容：第一,在对研究的核心问题——游资概念进行准确界定的基础上,着重介绍近些年积极财政政策的实施轨迹同当前投机频发之间现象上的关联,并对财政可能影响游资的途径进行简要概述。第二,通过对相关的文献进行梳理,主要对宏观经济政策与游资关系的文献进行了总结；第三,以中国经济转轨为背景,分析在中国的特殊体制性约束下,财政与我国社会游资之间的联系和影响途径,构建了我国财政与游资之间互动机制的理论框架。第四,应用价格解析方法,结合不同投机品市场的特点对我国社会游资总量进行测算。第五,通过对1978年以来我国财政工具运用情况的梳理,基于对游资变化趋势的分析,提出了财政影响游资变化这一理论的经验证据。第六,通过计量方法对财政与游资关系所提出的理论假设进行实证分析和检验。第七,对游资投机的重点领域——房地产业投机泡沫进行了单独研究。第八,根据实证分析的结果提出了合理控制游资、削弱游资负面影响的政策建议。
本文的主要研究结论如下：(1)在我国游资变动的诸多影响因素中,财政在其中的作用不容忽视。按时间顺序来说,起初,财政对游资的影响比较间接,财政体制通过作用于宏观经济中的预期、激励机制等方式对游资的产生提供了制度基础和资金准备；随着政府财政能力的逐渐提升,对游资变动来说,政府财政体制的作用逐渐转移到政策层面,经济体中出现了财政资金流入虚拟经济的渠道；到国际金融危机爆发后,随着政府财政投资的再次扩张,财政政策因素已经成为近期游资积累与集中的重要推动力。(2)基于本文第4章对中国国内社会游资规模的测算,我国游资规模的变动轨迹并未表现出周期性的特征,反而与财政政策的方向呈现出较强的一致性。(3)通过以财政规章制度数据作为体制因素的替代变量进行的回归分析,结论表明财政体制非规范性的存在是能够影响到游资变化的,而财政预算资金虽然并没有大规模地成为游资的来源,却可能在非规范性的背景下流入房地产市场或是引起实体经济向房地产投机的资金流动。(4)就财政投资对社会游资变化所产生的影响来说,结论显示,财政投资的扩张会带来社会游资总规模的增长,并且中央财政投资、地方财政投资、国有企业投资以及预算投资均己成为游资变动的原因。(5)以房地产市场内的游资为研究重点,本文还发现,当前土地财政已不仅仅通过成本的形式转移为泡沫的一部分,更是成为我国房地产泡沫形成的根源之一。此外,非线性的回归结果还发现,虽然财政扩张并未引起游资总规模的加速扩张,但却会引起游资向房地产投机领域的加速流动。
The speculative capital in the domestic market has become a problem which we have to face in the process of China's macro-economic regulation. In the past few years, the speculative capital flow has showed very strong, which led to the speculation phenomenon of skyrocketing real estate and primary products market prices in the short term. And it caused widespread concern in the government and the public gradually. Furthermore, all areas of the shift in the speculative phenomenon also show that our domestic large-scale speculative capital stock, which is high-speed flowing between the various markets for speculative gains. Although the bubble has not yet led to extent of bubble economy, it has begun to have a serious impact on the normal market order.
For the problem above, this paper focuses on the link and the impact mechanism between the financial system and policy factors in speculation expansion process recently, and then makes the empirical analysis which is based on financial factors that may affect the speculative capital change. Specifically, this paper include the following components: first, based on precisely defined, we study the core of the research problem-speculative capital concept, then we focuses on the implementation of the proactive fiscal policy in recent years'trajectory with the current speculative frequent association between phenomenon and a brief overview of the financial impact of speculative capital. Second, by combing the relevant literature, we summarized the main macroeconomic policy with speculative capital. Third, the context of China's economic transition analysis of under special institutional constraints, the contact between the Finance and China's social speculative capital and impact way to build the theoretical framework of the mechanism of interaction between our financial and speculative capital. Fourth, we're going to apply price analytical method, combined with the characteristics of the different speculative products market is calculated on the total of China's social speculative capital. Fifth, by combing tool use since1978, China's financial situation, based on the analysis of the trend of speculative capital, proposed the empirical evidence of the financial impact of speculative capital change theory. Sixth, through the measurement of empirical analysis and test the theoretical assumptions of the relationship between fiscal and speculative capital. Seventh, we separate research focus areas-real estate speculative bubble of speculative capital speculation. Eighth, according to the results of the empirical analysis of the reasonable control of the speculative capital, weaken the negative impact of speculative capital policy recommendations.
The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1) the role of finance in which many influencing factors in Chin's speculative capital changes can not be ignored. In chronological order, at first, the financial impact of speculative capital indirect financial system through the expected role of macroeconomic incentives of speculative capital generated institutional basis and funds to prepare, and Gradually enhanced with the ability of government finances, the speculative capital movements in the role of the government financial system gradually shifted to a policy level, a the Financial capital inflows virtual economy channels economies, and to the international financial crisis, with the re-expansion of the government financial investment, fiscal policy factors has become an important driving force of the recent speculative capital accumulated and concentrated.(2) Based on this article in Chapter4of the estimates of the scale of China's domestic social speculative capital, track of changes in the scale of speculative capital in China did not exhibit cyclical characteristics, instead showing a strong consistency with the direction of fiscal policy.(3) regression analysis conducted by as alternative institutional factors variables to the financial rules and regulations data, the conclusions show that the presence of non-normative financial system is able to affect the speculative capital changes, budget funds to be no large-scale speculative capital sources, they may flow into the real estate market in the non-normative context or cause the real economy, the flow of funds to the real estate speculation.(4) For the purposes of the financial investment the impact of changes in the social speculative capital, the conclusions show that the financial investment in the expansion will bring the total scale of social speculative capital growth, and the central financial investment, local financial investment, investment in state-owned enterprises, as well as budget investments are has become the speculative capital movements.(5) to the speculative capital in the real estate market with a focus on paper also found that land finance not only by the cost in the form of transfer of part of the bubble, but also become one of the root causes of the formation of China's real estate bubble. In addition, the non-linear regression results also found that fiscal expansion does not cause the total size of the accelerated expansion of the speculative capital, but it will cause accelerated flow of speculative capital to the field of real estate speculation.
引文
① 详见吕炜,中国经济转轨进程中的财政制度创新逻辑,世界经济,2003年第10期。
① 毛传新,转轨中的地方政府行为主体：一种分析框架,上海经济研究,2001年第12期。
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