基于海啸浮标的海啸数值预报技术研究
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摘要
海啸灾害是滨海国家面对的重大自然灾害之一，我国拥有漫长的海岸线，且毗邻环太平洋地震带，存在海啸灾害风险。我国即将建立基于海啸浮标的第二代海啸预警系统，本文对应用于第二代海啸预警系统中的基于海啸浮标数据反演的海啸数值预报技术进行了研究和讨论。通过对反演计算中海啸单位震源规格的设置、海啸单位震源和浮标同化数据的选择、浮标位置以及海底地形等因素对海啸预报的影响的试验，发现预报结果对这些因素的敏感性，以期帮助我们在海啸预报中选择更合适的参数组合来得到较好的预报结果。
通过预报结果对单位震源的敏感性试验发现：选择震源附近合适范围内（覆盖震源断层）的单位震源可以得到比较稳定的单位震源权重值，即比较稳定的震源初始场信息。在建立海啸源函数库的过程中，单位震源的面积过大不利于表现震源的初始场抬升情况。
通过浮标同化数据量的敏感性试验发现：使用海啸波的第一波信息即可得到比较好的预报结果，选择更多的浮标数据对预报结果的影响不大。
通过浮标位置的敏感性试验发现：浮标的位置会影响预报结果。应用两个浮标的数据反演可以给预报结果带来一定改善。
通过预报结果对地形的敏感性试验发现：在深海中预报误差较小，浅海陆架和岛礁等水深小、地形变化复杂的地区预报误差较大。
Tsunami is one of the most serious natural calamities which maritime countriesneed to be facing with. China has a long coastline, which is adjacent to the Pacificseismic belt, so it exit tsunami risk to China coasline. In China, the secondgeneration of tsunami-early-warning-system will soon be established. In this paper,based on the tsunami buoy, tsunami numerical forecasting technique is introduced.We will find out the sensitivity of forecasting outcomes to some factors such as thesize of a unit source, the selection of buoy data, the position of tsunami buoy,topography of the seafloor and so on through sensitivity tests on the factors listedabove, with the hope to help us select the appropriate combination of parameters infuture tsunami forecasting.
The sensitivity test of unit source indicate that weighting factors of unit sourcesmay be stable if we choose appropriate unit sources in inversion calculation. Withregard to tsunami source database, a large area of unit source is not in favor of therepresentation of the behavior of the tsunami initial field, and a too small area of uintsource is not beneficial for inversion calculation.
The sensitivity test on the quantity of buoy data in inversion reveals that it willbe desirable using the first wave data in inversion for forcasting while a large amoutof data would not bring much of a difference.
The sensitivity test on the position of the buoy indicates that the position willaffect forcasting. Using two buoy’s data may make forcasting outcome more accurate.
The sensitivity test on sea floor topography shows that forcasting result is betterin deep water than in regions of shallow water or complex topography.
通过预报结果对单位震源的敏感性试验发现：选择震源附近合适范围内（覆盖震源断层）的单位震源可以得到比较稳定的单位震源权重值，即比较稳定的震源初始场信息。在建立海啸源函数库的过程中，单位震源的面积过大不利于表现震源的初始场抬升情况。
通过浮标同化数据量的敏感性试验发现：使用海啸波的第一波信息即可得到比较好的预报结果，选择更多的浮标数据对预报结果的影响不大。
通过浮标位置的敏感性试验发现：浮标的位置会影响预报结果。应用两个浮标的数据反演可以给预报结果带来一定改善。
通过预报结果对地形的敏感性试验发现：在深海中预报误差较小，浅海陆架和岛礁等水深小、地形变化复杂的地区预报误差较大。
Tsunami is one of the most serious natural calamities which maritime countriesneed to be facing with. China has a long coastline, which is adjacent to the Pacificseismic belt, so it exit tsunami risk to China coasline. In China, the secondgeneration of tsunami-early-warning-system will soon be established. In this paper,based on the tsunami buoy, tsunami numerical forecasting technique is introduced.We will find out the sensitivity of forecasting outcomes to some factors such as thesize of a unit source, the selection of buoy data, the position of tsunami buoy,topography of the seafloor and so on through sensitivity tests on the factors listedabove, with the hope to help us select the appropriate combination of parameters infuture tsunami forecasting.
The sensitivity test of unit source indicate that weighting factors of unit sourcesmay be stable if we choose appropriate unit sources in inversion calculation. Withregard to tsunami source database, a large area of unit source is not in favor of therepresentation of the behavior of the tsunami initial field, and a too small area of uintsource is not beneficial for inversion calculation.
The sensitivity test on the quantity of buoy data in inversion reveals that it willbe desirable using the first wave data in inversion for forcasting while a large amoutof data would not bring much of a difference.
The sensitivity test on the position of the buoy indicates that the position willaffect forcasting. Using two buoy’s data may make forcasting outcome more accurate.
The sensitivity test on sea floor topography shows that forcasting result is betterin deep water than in regions of shallow water or complex topography.
引文
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[2] Unesco-Ioc. The Great Waves[M]. UNESCO, Paris,2006.
[3]杨华庭.海啸及太平洋海啸警报系统[J].海洋预报,1987,68-76.
[4]陆人骥.中国历代灾害性海潮史料[M].海洋出版社,1984.
[5]胡涛骏,叶银灿.滑坡海啸的预测模型及其应用[J].海洋学研究,2006,24(003):21-31.
[6] Watts P. Probabilistic predictions of landslide tsunamis off Southern California[J]. Marine Geology,2004,203(3):281-301.
[7] Fine I, Rabinovich A, et al. The Grand Banks landslide-generated tsunami of November18,1929:preliminary analysis and numerical modeling[J]. Marine Geology,2005,215(1):45-57.
[8] Tanioka Y,Seno T. Detailed analysis of tsunami waveforms generated by the1946Aleutian tsunamiearthquake[J].2001,
[9] Clague J J, Bobrowsky P T, et al. A sand sheet deposited by the1964Alaska tsunami at Port Alberni,British Columbia[J]. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science,1994,38(4):413-421.
[10] Day S J, Watts P, et al. Mechanical models of the1975Kalapana, Hawaii earthquake andtsunami[J]. Marine Geology,2005,215(1):59-92.
[11] Imamura F, Gica E, et al. Numerical simulation of the1992Flores tsunami: Interpretation oftsunami phenomena in northeastern Flores Island and damage at Babi Island[J]. Pure and AppliedGeophysics,1995,144(3):555-568.
[12] Satake K,Tanioka Y. The July1998Papua New Guinea earthquake: Mechanism and quantificationof unusual tsunami generation[J]. Pure and Applied Geophysics,2003,160(10):2087-2118.
[13] Altinok Y, Tinti S, et al. The tsunami of August17,1999in Izmit Bay, Turkey[J]. Natural Hazards,2001,24(2):133-146.
[14]任叶飞.基于数值模拟的我国地震海啸危险性分析研究[D].中国地震局工程力学研究所,2008.
[15]陈顒.海啸的成因与预警系统[J].自然杂志,2005,27(1):4-7.
[16]魏柏林,何宏林等.试论地震海啸的成因[J].地震地质,2010,32(1):150-161.
[17]叶琳,于福江等.我国海啸灾害及预警现状与建议[J].海洋预报,2008,22(z1):147-157.
[18]王晓青,吕金霞等.我国地震海啸危险性初步探讨[J].华南地震,2006,26(1):76-80.
[19]付庆军.越洋和局地海啸数值模拟的理论研究及其应用[D].天津大学,2007.
[20]于福江,原野等.2010年2月27日智利8.8级地震海啸对我国影响分析[J].科学通报,2011,56(3):239-246.
[21]潘文亮,王盛安等.南海潜在海啸灾害的模拟[J].热带海洋学报,2009,28(6):7-14.
[22] USGS Tsunami Sources Workshop2006. Great earthquake tsunami sources: Empiricism&Beyond of Work[C]. Menlo Park, California, USA,2006.
[23] Liu P L, Wang X, et al. Tsunami Hazard and Forecast Study in South China Sea[J]. School of Civil&Environmental Engineering, Cornell University,2007,1-39.
[24]董非非.海啸在东海大陆架传播的研究与识别[D].中国地震局兰州地震研究所,2009.
[25]吴时国,喻普之.海底构造学导论[M].科学出版社,2006.
[26]江为为,刘少华等.东海冲绳海槽地质地球物理调查回顾与研究现状[J].地球物理学进展,2001,16(4):71-84.
[27]刘展,赵文举等.冲绳海槽南部基底构造特征[J].地球物理学进展,2006,21(3):814-824.
[28]刘展,孙鲁平等.冲绳海槽北部基底构造特征[J].地球物理学进展,2006,21(4):1086-1092.
[29] Katsumata M,Sykes L R. Seismicity and tectonics of the western Pacific: Izu-Mariana-Carolineand Ryukyu-Taiwan regions[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research,1969,74(25):5923-5948.
[30]杨马陵,魏柏林.南海海域地震海啸潜在危险的探析[J].灾害学,2005,20(3):41-47.
[31] Zhou Q,Adams W. Tsunami risk analysis for China[J]. Natural Hazards,1988,1(2):181-195.
[32]朱俊江,丘学林等.南海东部海沟的震源机制解及其构造意义[J].地震学报,2005,27(003):260-268.
[33] Huang Z, Wu T R, et al. Tsunami hazard from the subduction Megathrust of the South China Sea:Part II. Hydrodynamic modeling and possible impact on Singapore[J]. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2009,36(1):93-97.
[34] Wang X,Liu P. Preliminary study of possible tsunami hazards in Taiwan region[J]. CornellUniversity,2006,1-33.
[35] Mansinha L,Smylie D. The displacement fields of inclined faults[J]. Bulletin of the SeismologicalSociety of America,1971,61(5):1433-1440.
[36] Okada Y. Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space[J]. Bulletin of theSeismological Society of America,1985,75(4):1135-1154.
[37] Titov V, Gonzalez F, et al. Implementation and testing of the method of splitting tsunami (MOST)model[M]. US Dept. of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, EnvironmentalResearch Laboratories, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory,1997.
[38]王培涛,赵联大等.海啸灾害数值预报技术研究现状[J].海洋预报,2011,28(3):74-79.
[39] Todorovska M I,Trifunac M D. Generation of tsunamis by a slowly spreading uplift of the seafloor[J]. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,2001,21(2):151-167.
[40] Todorovska M, Hayir A, et al. A note on tsunami amplitudes above submarine slides and slumps[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,2002,22(2):129-141.
[41]陈飞,林一骅等.基于缓变地形的远程海啸传播模拟的改进[J].气候与环境研究,2010,003):237-245.
[42]姚远,蔡树群等.海啸波数值模拟的研究现状[J][J].海洋科学进展,2007,25(4):487-494.
[43] Shuto N. Numerical simulation of tsunamis—Its present and near future[J]. Natural Hazards,1991,4(2):171-191.
[44] Nagano O, Imamura F, et al. A numerical model for far-field tsunamis and its application to predictdamages done to aquaculture[J]. Natural Hazards,1991,4(2):235-255.
[45] Imamura F, Shuto N, et al. Numerical simulation of the transoceanic propagation of tsunamis[C].1988.
[46] Liu P,Cho Y. Numerical simulation of tsunami propagation and inundation with application to Hilo,Hawaii[M]. Cornell University,1994.
[47] Yoon S B. Propagation of distant tsunamis over slowly varying topography[J]. Journal ofGeophysical Research,2002,107(C10):3140.
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