胶州湾海岸带生态系统健康评价与预测研究
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摘要
胶州湾是具有港口、旅游、外贸、轻纺、海洋科研等多种开发功能的天然海湾,对青岛市的经济发展有着举足轻重的地位。然而,在强烈的人类胁迫活动下,胶州湾面积不断缩小,环境质量日益下降,生物资源锐减,如不及时妥善解决这些问题,终将危及到整个青岛地区的可持续发展。国外案例研究发现,海岸带作为自然、社会、经济的复合生态系统,拥有庞大的组织结构、能量流及动态流,以往单一的环境管理方法已不足以解决目前海岸带所面临的问题,急需一种综合环境、生态、经济、社会等多门学科的新式管理手段。
本论文从海岸带生态系统健康角度探索保护胶州湾海岸带的新方法。研究胶州湾海岸带压力与生态系统作用机理以完善海岸带生态系统健康理论研究;构筑胶州湾海岸带生态系统压力评价体系、健康评价体系以丰富海岸带生态系统健康实践研究;构筑胶州湾海岸带生态系统健康预测体系以实现海岸带生态系统健康的定量预测;探索生态系统健康研究与海岸带综合管理的对接方法,提出胶州湾海岸带生态系统管理的调控措施,为政府海岸带综合管理提供决策支持。
论文的研究内容及成果有:
1.分析单因子胁迫、多因子胁迫与胶州湾海岸带生态系统作用关系,识别胶州湾海岸带生态系统主要压力因子及与之对应的压力作用因子;
2.基于胶州湾海岸带生态系统的压力因子识别结果,构造了包括经济压力、人口压力、人类活动压力(捕捞压力、陆源排污压力、温排水压力、围海造地压力、事故溢油压力、大气污染压力、海岸带旅游压力)的胶州湾海岸带生态系统压力评价体系,并利用该体系计算了1990~2005年胶州湾海岸带生态系统压力指数。
结果表明:(1)1990~1996年胶州湾海岸带生态系统压力指数呈波动上升趋势;1997~2005年压力指数呈现不断增长趋势;由于经济压力由正压力项变为负压力项,2003年起指数增长速度有所减缓;(2)胶州湾海岸带生态系统最主要的人类活动压力为环境污染压力,基本呈持续增长态势;其次为捕捞压力,于1999年达到最大值,此后呈减小趋势。
3.基于压力作用因子识别结果,构造了与压力因子相对应的胶州湾海岸带生态系统健康评价体系,体系分为近岸陆域、近岸海域、社会经济3个子系统,共包括24个指标,从近岸陆域景观质量、栖息地特征、海洋污染状态、环境调节功能、环境纳污能力、环境交换能力、生物群落结构、生物质量、生物资源承载力、社区居住环境、经济发展水平、社会进步情况等方面评价了胶州湾海岸带生态系统健康状态。利用该体系对1988年、1997年、2005年胶州湾海岸带生态系统健康状况进行了评价。
评价结果表明:(1) 1988年胶州湾海岸带生态系统呈健康状态;1997年系统健康状况急剧下降至亚健康状态;2005年系统仍处于亚健康状态,健康状况仍在下降,但下降速率已大大减缓;(2)社会经济子系统一直向健康方向发展;近岸陆域子系统健康状态由恶化趋势转为康复;海洋子系统健康状态一直呈恶化趋势。
4.构造了包括马尔科夫链模型、海洋环境数值模型、EwE生态模型以及灰色预测模型的胶州湾海岸带生态系统健康预测体系,实现了海岸带生态系统健康的定量化预测;提出健康主导因子及健康亏损指标的概念以实现海岸带生态系统健康研究与海岸带综合管理的对接。
结果表明:(1)2010年胶州湾海岸带生态系统仍处于亚健康状态,但已较2005年有所好转;(2)2005~2010年胶州湾海岸带生态系统康复主导因子为近岸土地利用优化、社会经济发展和捕捞强度减小;恶化主导因子为围海造地活动、海洋环境污染和人口持续增长;(3)2010~2020年康复主导因子及恶化主导因子将继续作用于胶州湾海岸带生态系统,未来左右胶州湾海岸带生态系统健康发展方向的主导因子为海洋环境污染;(4)1980~2010年胶州湾海岸带生态系统健康演化过程表现为健康—急剧恶化—恶化减缓—恢复四个阶段。
Jiaozhou Bay, a natural bay with exploitable functions of port, tourism, foreign trade, marine scientific research etc, plays a very important part in the economic development of Qingdao city. However, due to the strong human influences, the bay’s area is continuously decreasing, the environmental quality is continuously damaged, and the biological resources has an even sharper decline. If these problems can not be resolved properly, they may pose a threat to the development of the overall Qingdao region, eventually. Case studies conducted abroad have indicated that single management method is not good enough to solve the current problems as the coastal ecosystem is a socio-economic natural complex ecosystem, with the characteristics of huge organizational structure, energy flow and dynamic flow. New management methods that could integrate multi-discipline factors such as environmental, ecological, economical, social factors and so on are needed.
This dissertation explores new methods to protect the Jiaozhou Bay from the perspective of the coastal ecosystem health, the interaction of the pressure on the coastal zone, the changing process and the changing trend of the bay’s health state. The study results provide basis for the coastal zone environmental management and the decision-making of the ecosystem management, and it also provides methodological basis for the maintenance and restoration of Jiaozhou Bay’s health and the stability, and sustainable development of the coastal zone.
The major study contents and results of this dissertation are as followed:
1.Recognizing the main influential factors of the bay by analyzing the interrelationships between the environmental stress and the ecosystem’s health, by analyzing the pressure of single factor and multi-factor on the Jiaozhou Bay coastal ecosystem.
2.A pressure evaluation system of Jiaozhou Bay coastal zone is established on the basis of the recognizing pressure factors, which contains economic pressures, population pressure, human activity pressure (fishing pressure, land reclamation pressure, terrigenous sewage pressure, heated discharge pressure, mariculture pressure, oil spill accident, air pollution pressure, and coastal tourism pressure) etc. Using the system, the ecosystem stress indices of the Jiaozhou Bay coastal zone were calculated from 1990 to 2005. The results showed that: (1)the ecosystem stress indices of Jiaozhou Bay have a fluctuating upward trend from 1990 to 1996; have a sustainable growing trend from 1997 to 2005; the increasing rate of the index slowed down somewhat from the year 2003, which might be a result of economic pressures changing from positive to negative. (2) The most important human activity pressure is the pollution pressure, followed by the fishing pressure. The pollution pressure has a sustainable upward trend and the fishing pressure reached its maximum value in the year 1999, and started to decrease from then on.
3.A coastal ecosystem health assessment indicators system is established based on the influential factors. The system is divided into three subunits: coastal land subsystem, coastal waters subsystem and socio-economic subsystem. According to the results of the pressure assessment, the marine environmental quality indicators and the marine ecological indicators are treated as the most important indicators in the system. The system is used to assess the health state of the Jiaozhou Bay in the year 1988, 1997, and 2005. The assessment results showed that: (1) Jiaozhou bay was healthy in the year 1988, but the health evaluation index showed a sharp decline in 1997, which caused the health state of the bay changed to sub-healthy. In the year 2005, although the health state of the bay was still sub-health, the rate of decline has slowed down. (2)The socio-economic subsystem has shown a steady and healthy development; the coastal land subsystem has shown an upward trend instead of a downward trend at the beginning; the coastal waters subsystem has shown a downward trend.
4.A health predicting system of Jiaozhou Bay coastal ecosystem is established based on the coastal ecosystem health assessment indicators system of the bay. The system contains four sub-models: the markov chain model, the numerical model of the marine environment, the EwE ecological model and the grey forecasting model to predict different types of indicators. The predicting results showed that: (1) in the year 2010, Jiaozhou Bay would still be sub-healthy, but would improve compared to the year 2005. (2) The improved dominant factors of Jiaozhou Bay’s health from 2005 to 2010 would be: coastal land use optimization, socio-economic development and restoring fisheries resources. Meanwhile, the detrimental factors would be: land reclamation, population growth and marine environment pollution. (3) From 2010 to 2020, the improved dominant factors and the deterioration dominant factors would continue their role in the Jiaozhou Bay. The factors that dominate the health state of the Jiaozhou Bay would be marine environment pollution (4) The healthy evolution process from 1980 to 2010 can be divided into four stages: health, rapid deterioration, slow deterioration and restoration.
本论文从海岸带生态系统健康角度探索保护胶州湾海岸带的新方法。研究胶州湾海岸带压力与生态系统作用机理以完善海岸带生态系统健康理论研究;构筑胶州湾海岸带生态系统压力评价体系、健康评价体系以丰富海岸带生态系统健康实践研究;构筑胶州湾海岸带生态系统健康预测体系以实现海岸带生态系统健康的定量预测;探索生态系统健康研究与海岸带综合管理的对接方法,提出胶州湾海岸带生态系统管理的调控措施,为政府海岸带综合管理提供决策支持。
论文的研究内容及成果有:
1.分析单因子胁迫、多因子胁迫与胶州湾海岸带生态系统作用关系,识别胶州湾海岸带生态系统主要压力因子及与之对应的压力作用因子;
2.基于胶州湾海岸带生态系统的压力因子识别结果,构造了包括经济压力、人口压力、人类活动压力(捕捞压力、陆源排污压力、温排水压力、围海造地压力、事故溢油压力、大气污染压力、海岸带旅游压力)的胶州湾海岸带生态系统压力评价体系,并利用该体系计算了1990~2005年胶州湾海岸带生态系统压力指数。
结果表明:(1)1990~1996年胶州湾海岸带生态系统压力指数呈波动上升趋势;1997~2005年压力指数呈现不断增长趋势;由于经济压力由正压力项变为负压力项,2003年起指数增长速度有所减缓;(2)胶州湾海岸带生态系统最主要的人类活动压力为环境污染压力,基本呈持续增长态势;其次为捕捞压力,于1999年达到最大值,此后呈减小趋势。
3.基于压力作用因子识别结果,构造了与压力因子相对应的胶州湾海岸带生态系统健康评价体系,体系分为近岸陆域、近岸海域、社会经济3个子系统,共包括24个指标,从近岸陆域景观质量、栖息地特征、海洋污染状态、环境调节功能、环境纳污能力、环境交换能力、生物群落结构、生物质量、生物资源承载力、社区居住环境、经济发展水平、社会进步情况等方面评价了胶州湾海岸带生态系统健康状态。利用该体系对1988年、1997年、2005年胶州湾海岸带生态系统健康状况进行了评价。
评价结果表明:(1) 1988年胶州湾海岸带生态系统呈健康状态;1997年系统健康状况急剧下降至亚健康状态;2005年系统仍处于亚健康状态,健康状况仍在下降,但下降速率已大大减缓;(2)社会经济子系统一直向健康方向发展;近岸陆域子系统健康状态由恶化趋势转为康复;海洋子系统健康状态一直呈恶化趋势。
4.构造了包括马尔科夫链模型、海洋环境数值模型、EwE生态模型以及灰色预测模型的胶州湾海岸带生态系统健康预测体系,实现了海岸带生态系统健康的定量化预测;提出健康主导因子及健康亏损指标的概念以实现海岸带生态系统健康研究与海岸带综合管理的对接。
结果表明:(1)2010年胶州湾海岸带生态系统仍处于亚健康状态,但已较2005年有所好转;(2)2005~2010年胶州湾海岸带生态系统康复主导因子为近岸土地利用优化、社会经济发展和捕捞强度减小;恶化主导因子为围海造地活动、海洋环境污染和人口持续增长;(3)2010~2020年康复主导因子及恶化主导因子将继续作用于胶州湾海岸带生态系统,未来左右胶州湾海岸带生态系统健康发展方向的主导因子为海洋环境污染;(4)1980~2010年胶州湾海岸带生态系统健康演化过程表现为健康—急剧恶化—恶化减缓—恢复四个阶段。
Jiaozhou Bay, a natural bay with exploitable functions of port, tourism, foreign trade, marine scientific research etc, plays a very important part in the economic development of Qingdao city. However, due to the strong human influences, the bay’s area is continuously decreasing, the environmental quality is continuously damaged, and the biological resources has an even sharper decline. If these problems can not be resolved properly, they may pose a threat to the development of the overall Qingdao region, eventually. Case studies conducted abroad have indicated that single management method is not good enough to solve the current problems as the coastal ecosystem is a socio-economic natural complex ecosystem, with the characteristics of huge organizational structure, energy flow and dynamic flow. New management methods that could integrate multi-discipline factors such as environmental, ecological, economical, social factors and so on are needed.
This dissertation explores new methods to protect the Jiaozhou Bay from the perspective of the coastal ecosystem health, the interaction of the pressure on the coastal zone, the changing process and the changing trend of the bay’s health state. The study results provide basis for the coastal zone environmental management and the decision-making of the ecosystem management, and it also provides methodological basis for the maintenance and restoration of Jiaozhou Bay’s health and the stability, and sustainable development of the coastal zone.
The major study contents and results of this dissertation are as followed:
1.Recognizing the main influential factors of the bay by analyzing the interrelationships between the environmental stress and the ecosystem’s health, by analyzing the pressure of single factor and multi-factor on the Jiaozhou Bay coastal ecosystem.
2.A pressure evaluation system of Jiaozhou Bay coastal zone is established on the basis of the recognizing pressure factors, which contains economic pressures, population pressure, human activity pressure (fishing pressure, land reclamation pressure, terrigenous sewage pressure, heated discharge pressure, mariculture pressure, oil spill accident, air pollution pressure, and coastal tourism pressure) etc. Using the system, the ecosystem stress indices of the Jiaozhou Bay coastal zone were calculated from 1990 to 2005. The results showed that: (1)the ecosystem stress indices of Jiaozhou Bay have a fluctuating upward trend from 1990 to 1996; have a sustainable growing trend from 1997 to 2005; the increasing rate of the index slowed down somewhat from the year 2003, which might be a result of economic pressures changing from positive to negative. (2) The most important human activity pressure is the pollution pressure, followed by the fishing pressure. The pollution pressure has a sustainable upward trend and the fishing pressure reached its maximum value in the year 1999, and started to decrease from then on.
3.A coastal ecosystem health assessment indicators system is established based on the influential factors. The system is divided into three subunits: coastal land subsystem, coastal waters subsystem and socio-economic subsystem. According to the results of the pressure assessment, the marine environmental quality indicators and the marine ecological indicators are treated as the most important indicators in the system. The system is used to assess the health state of the Jiaozhou Bay in the year 1988, 1997, and 2005. The assessment results showed that: (1) Jiaozhou bay was healthy in the year 1988, but the health evaluation index showed a sharp decline in 1997, which caused the health state of the bay changed to sub-healthy. In the year 2005, although the health state of the bay was still sub-health, the rate of decline has slowed down. (2)The socio-economic subsystem has shown a steady and healthy development; the coastal land subsystem has shown an upward trend instead of a downward trend at the beginning; the coastal waters subsystem has shown a downward trend.
4.A health predicting system of Jiaozhou Bay coastal ecosystem is established based on the coastal ecosystem health assessment indicators system of the bay. The system contains four sub-models: the markov chain model, the numerical model of the marine environment, the EwE ecological model and the grey forecasting model to predict different types of indicators. The predicting results showed that: (1) in the year 2010, Jiaozhou Bay would still be sub-healthy, but would improve compared to the year 2005. (2) The improved dominant factors of Jiaozhou Bay’s health from 2005 to 2010 would be: coastal land use optimization, socio-economic development and restoring fisheries resources. Meanwhile, the detrimental factors would be: land reclamation, population growth and marine environment pollution. (3) From 2010 to 2020, the improved dominant factors and the deterioration dominant factors would continue their role in the Jiaozhou Bay. The factors that dominate the health state of the Jiaozhou Bay would be marine environment pollution (4) The healthy evolution process from 1980 to 2010 can be divided into four stages: health, rapid deterioration, slow deterioration and restoration.
引文
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