劳动力转移与农业兼业对欠发达地区农业系统的影响
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摘要
劳动力从农业向其他部门转移是与经济现代化和增长过程相伴随的普遍现象,是提高农业生产率、调整产业结构的必须条件,也是经济持续和平衡增长的必要保证。农业兼业是农户对家庭劳动力和资源同时在农业与非农业生产之间进行分配、追求家庭效用最大化的一种理性选择,也是农业劳动力转移的一种过渡方式。在我国,农业兼业既是劳动力转移的结果和表现形式,同时又影响劳动力转移的进程和深度。
基于劳动力转移及农业兼业对农业生产和发展利弊的争论,结合劳动力转移新经济学理论关于农户的劳动力转移决策对家庭短期产出和长期投资作用的假设,以及劳动力分配理论关于农户的非农就业、农业生产和雇用劳动的决策机制,本研究探索了劳动力转移与农业兼业对小农户生产率的影响；非农收入对劳动力减少的补偿与农业再投入机制,以及不同农业生产的兼业农户的劳动力供应和农业收益的长期作用。
以位于我国西北欠发达的甘肃省庆阳市为研究区域,选取分别代表塬区、河谷和山区不同典型农业系统的仕社、曲子和甜水三个乡镇,以2008年和2010年调查的178和150个农户为研究对象,本文结合计量经济学和农户系统模拟模型,通过对比纯农业生产户和兼业农户在投入-产出之间差异,定量分析了劳动力转移和农业兼业对农户生产规模、产量和农业利润的影响；研究了小农户生产系统内部不同作物和家畜对劳动力减少的响应,情景模拟了不同农业生产的兼业农户长期条件下的农业收益。主要研究结果显示：
1.外出务工、或者从事其他各种形式的兼业是农户补充家庭收入、提高生活水平的主要途径,并且发挥着越来越重要的作用。总体而言,劳动力转移、农业兼业对小农户总的生产率没有影响。但是劳动力减少有导致低回报的粮食生产降低的趋势,而且这种消极作用会被非农收入对高利润的经济作物的投入所抵消；此外,劳动力减少对家畜养殖规模也有消极影响。
2.在短期内,劳动力转移是否对农业生产有影响,取决于减少的劳动力是否可以被补充和／或者替代。在农户的生产系统内部,因为不同生产对劳动力需求的差异,使得不同作物和家畜对劳动力减少的反应有所不同。家庭劳动力和雇用工人之间的取代程度和取代费用的不同,影响农户劳动力供给决策,长远影响农户非农就业比例,兼业程度和劳动力转移速度。
非农收入是否被用来进行农业再投入、对哪种生产投入,对小农户而言,是由家庭消费需求和回报率共同决定的。本研究用实例证明和强调了劳动力转移新经济学理论关于劳动力转移与非农收入对农业生产的影响的复杂性的解释：表明市场条件,农业投资利润的高低,家庭消费需求,小农户生产系统内部劳动力需求和供给平衡,这些因素互相影响、共同决定农户的劳动力转移与非农收入决策,进而对农业系统产生不同作用。本研究同时证明,劳动力转移是农户克服资金不足、统筹安排家庭经济和投资的一种策略,兼业所得的非农收入在直接增加农户收入的同时,也间接地帮助农户克服农业生产中的资金限制和风险约束。如果劳动力市场运行良好,农户对高回报生产的投资得以实现,劳动力转移促使农户从传统自给自足生产方式向商业化生产转变。
3.在长期条件下,当改变生产规模或兼业程度时,不同类型农户的劳动力供需差异明显,达到农业效益最大化所需从事的农业生产活动不同。农户农业收益和家庭总收入受家庭劳动力在非农就业,雇工和农业劳动的分配及三者之间收入差异影响。模拟模型对不同生产规模和组合的情景模拟结果与农户时间分配经济学模型的推理相吻合,表明家庭劳动力和雇用工人禀赋差异越大,雇用工人对家庭劳动力的替代程度越低,替代费用越高,农户参与非农收入的机会成本就越大；而在雇用工人的替代程度高的生产中,家庭劳动力没有比较优势,非农就业成本就低。这在实践上印证了劳动力分配模型中关于进入劳动力市场的单位价格可能是增加的,也可能是降低的推论,动态反映了农户参与劳动力市场时在非农就业,务农和雇用工人进行决策的机制。
在研究角度上,本研究把农业兼业和劳动力转移的概念结合在一起,拓展了劳动力转移研究的内涵和外延；在研究方法上,将静态的经济学模型和动态的生产系统模拟模型相结合,将生产的不确定因素考虑在内,分析和预测劳动力转移与兼业对农业系统的长期作用。研究结果在验证劳动力转移新经济学和劳动力分配理论的同时,用劳动力分配理论中农户劳动力供求决策机制解释劳动力转移新经济学(The Economics of Laobur Migration,NELM理论中对劳动力减少的补偿与替代,同时用IAT (The Integrated Analysis Tool)模型动态反应农户劳动力分配理论,探索了从多层次、多角度对劳动力转移对小农户生产系统作用的复杂性进行阐释,在理论和研究方法的应用上都有一定的创新。
Rural-urban migration is inevitable in the developmental process of countries, being considered a precondition for agricultural development and economic transformation. Due to the unique land tenure policy of China, most Chinese small household farmers do not permanently leave their land, instead engaging in both on and off-farm work. Part-time farming is the most viable strategy available to households for maximizing family utility and is a common feature of migration in China.
Based on the debates surrounding the impacts of migration and part-time farming on small farming systems, this study applies the theory of new economics of labour migration (NELM) and a household labour allocation model. It investigates agricultural productivity differences between full-time and part-time farms, and explores whether the remittances have been reinvested in agriculture to compensate for the impacts of out-migration. In addition, it predicts the long-term effects of household labour supplies and farm profits for different farm activities.
Three townships, Shieshe, Quzi and Tianshui, were selected as case study areas in China's less developed region of Qingyang prefecture, in Gansu province. These localities represent three typical farming systems of the region:The productive tableland farming system, the slopelands system, and the river valley system. In total,328households were interviewed to collect data for econometric analysis and simulation modelling. By comparing input-output variations between farmers who engage in farming exclusively and those who practice part-time farming, and simulating labour supply and farm profit for different farm types using the integrated Analysis Tool (IAT), this study concludes:
1) In the Qingyang region, off-farm income is vital for small farmers to improve their livelihoods. In the short term, because of reduced labour, migration decreases wheat planting area and goat/sheep quantity of farms. The impact of losing farm labour on lower-return grain crop production is likely to be offset by the gain from investing in capital-intensive and profitable cash crop production, however.
2) The impacts of migration on productivity are determined by whether the loss of family labour can be offset by remittance reinvestment on farm, and/or substituted by hired labour, which depend on labour market perfection level as well as homogeneity between family and hired labour. Internal wage differentials between off-farm and hired labour affect the labour demand and supply balance of households, in turn having an effect on farm productivity and reinvestment from remittances.
3) Results from the simulation model showed that different farm activities variably demand family and hired labour. In the long term, when changing farm scale and/or production, different households therefore reach farm maximization with different crops and/or livestock. The farm income disparity is mainly due to the capacity of households to participate in the labour market. As a result, migration and part-time farming could have both positive and negative impacts on small householder farming systems.
The NELM theory stresses the complexity of migration as an economic institution, the inter-relationship between determinants and impacts of migration, and the role of households in migration decision making. This study further interprets the complication from the labour market participation perspective of households. By integrating the labour allocation model into migration research, this study provides insights into how out-migration and migrant remittances relax or tighten market constraints on households in China's less developed regions. It also combines a dynamic simulation model with static economic models to take account of uncertainty in migration study, which enriches the related knowledge base with a multiple research approaches and perspectives.
基于劳动力转移及农业兼业对农业生产和发展利弊的争论,结合劳动力转移新经济学理论关于农户的劳动力转移决策对家庭短期产出和长期投资作用的假设,以及劳动力分配理论关于农户的非农就业、农业生产和雇用劳动的决策机制,本研究探索了劳动力转移与农业兼业对小农户生产率的影响；非农收入对劳动力减少的补偿与农业再投入机制,以及不同农业生产的兼业农户的劳动力供应和农业收益的长期作用。
以位于我国西北欠发达的甘肃省庆阳市为研究区域,选取分别代表塬区、河谷和山区不同典型农业系统的仕社、曲子和甜水三个乡镇,以2008年和2010年调查的178和150个农户为研究对象,本文结合计量经济学和农户系统模拟模型,通过对比纯农业生产户和兼业农户在投入-产出之间差异,定量分析了劳动力转移和农业兼业对农户生产规模、产量和农业利润的影响；研究了小农户生产系统内部不同作物和家畜对劳动力减少的响应,情景模拟了不同农业生产的兼业农户长期条件下的农业收益。主要研究结果显示：
1.外出务工、或者从事其他各种形式的兼业是农户补充家庭收入、提高生活水平的主要途径,并且发挥着越来越重要的作用。总体而言,劳动力转移、农业兼业对小农户总的生产率没有影响。但是劳动力减少有导致低回报的粮食生产降低的趋势,而且这种消极作用会被非农收入对高利润的经济作物的投入所抵消；此外,劳动力减少对家畜养殖规模也有消极影响。
2.在短期内,劳动力转移是否对农业生产有影响,取决于减少的劳动力是否可以被补充和／或者替代。在农户的生产系统内部,因为不同生产对劳动力需求的差异,使得不同作物和家畜对劳动力减少的反应有所不同。家庭劳动力和雇用工人之间的取代程度和取代费用的不同,影响农户劳动力供给决策,长远影响农户非农就业比例,兼业程度和劳动力转移速度。
非农收入是否被用来进行农业再投入、对哪种生产投入,对小农户而言,是由家庭消费需求和回报率共同决定的。本研究用实例证明和强调了劳动力转移新经济学理论关于劳动力转移与非农收入对农业生产的影响的复杂性的解释：表明市场条件,农业投资利润的高低,家庭消费需求,小农户生产系统内部劳动力需求和供给平衡,这些因素互相影响、共同决定农户的劳动力转移与非农收入决策,进而对农业系统产生不同作用。本研究同时证明,劳动力转移是农户克服资金不足、统筹安排家庭经济和投资的一种策略,兼业所得的非农收入在直接增加农户收入的同时,也间接地帮助农户克服农业生产中的资金限制和风险约束。如果劳动力市场运行良好,农户对高回报生产的投资得以实现,劳动力转移促使农户从传统自给自足生产方式向商业化生产转变。
3.在长期条件下,当改变生产规模或兼业程度时,不同类型农户的劳动力供需差异明显,达到农业效益最大化所需从事的农业生产活动不同。农户农业收益和家庭总收入受家庭劳动力在非农就业,雇工和农业劳动的分配及三者之间收入差异影响。模拟模型对不同生产规模和组合的情景模拟结果与农户时间分配经济学模型的推理相吻合,表明家庭劳动力和雇用工人禀赋差异越大,雇用工人对家庭劳动力的替代程度越低,替代费用越高,农户参与非农收入的机会成本就越大；而在雇用工人的替代程度高的生产中,家庭劳动力没有比较优势,非农就业成本就低。这在实践上印证了劳动力分配模型中关于进入劳动力市场的单位价格可能是增加的,也可能是降低的推论,动态反映了农户参与劳动力市场时在非农就业,务农和雇用工人进行决策的机制。
在研究角度上,本研究把农业兼业和劳动力转移的概念结合在一起,拓展了劳动力转移研究的内涵和外延；在研究方法上,将静态的经济学模型和动态的生产系统模拟模型相结合,将生产的不确定因素考虑在内,分析和预测劳动力转移与兼业对农业系统的长期作用。研究结果在验证劳动力转移新经济学和劳动力分配理论的同时,用劳动力分配理论中农户劳动力供求决策机制解释劳动力转移新经济学(The Economics of Laobur Migration,NELM理论中对劳动力减少的补偿与替代,同时用IAT (The Integrated Analysis Tool)模型动态反应农户劳动力分配理论,探索了从多层次、多角度对劳动力转移对小农户生产系统作用的复杂性进行阐释,在理论和研究方法的应用上都有一定的创新。
Rural-urban migration is inevitable in the developmental process of countries, being considered a precondition for agricultural development and economic transformation. Due to the unique land tenure policy of China, most Chinese small household farmers do not permanently leave their land, instead engaging in both on and off-farm work. Part-time farming is the most viable strategy available to households for maximizing family utility and is a common feature of migration in China.
Based on the debates surrounding the impacts of migration and part-time farming on small farming systems, this study applies the theory of new economics of labour migration (NELM) and a household labour allocation model. It investigates agricultural productivity differences between full-time and part-time farms, and explores whether the remittances have been reinvested in agriculture to compensate for the impacts of out-migration. In addition, it predicts the long-term effects of household labour supplies and farm profits for different farm activities.
Three townships, Shieshe, Quzi and Tianshui, were selected as case study areas in China's less developed region of Qingyang prefecture, in Gansu province. These localities represent three typical farming systems of the region:The productive tableland farming system, the slopelands system, and the river valley system. In total,328households were interviewed to collect data for econometric analysis and simulation modelling. By comparing input-output variations between farmers who engage in farming exclusively and those who practice part-time farming, and simulating labour supply and farm profit for different farm types using the integrated Analysis Tool (IAT), this study concludes:
1) In the Qingyang region, off-farm income is vital for small farmers to improve their livelihoods. In the short term, because of reduced labour, migration decreases wheat planting area and goat/sheep quantity of farms. The impact of losing farm labour on lower-return grain crop production is likely to be offset by the gain from investing in capital-intensive and profitable cash crop production, however.
2) The impacts of migration on productivity are determined by whether the loss of family labour can be offset by remittance reinvestment on farm, and/or substituted by hired labour, which depend on labour market perfection level as well as homogeneity between family and hired labour. Internal wage differentials between off-farm and hired labour affect the labour demand and supply balance of households, in turn having an effect on farm productivity and reinvestment from remittances.
3) Results from the simulation model showed that different farm activities variably demand family and hired labour. In the long term, when changing farm scale and/or production, different households therefore reach farm maximization with different crops and/or livestock. The farm income disparity is mainly due to the capacity of households to participate in the labour market. As a result, migration and part-time farming could have both positive and negative impacts on small householder farming systems.
The NELM theory stresses the complexity of migration as an economic institution, the inter-relationship between determinants and impacts of migration, and the role of households in migration decision making. This study further interprets the complication from the labour market participation perspective of households. By integrating the labour allocation model into migration research, this study provides insights into how out-migration and migrant remittances relax or tighten market constraints on households in China's less developed regions. It also combines a dynamic simulation model with static economic models to take account of uncertainty in migration study, which enriches the related knowledge base with a multiple research approaches and perspectives.
引文
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