中国水资源配置管理研究
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摘要
中国是水资源缺乏国家,随着人口增长、经济发展,对水资源需求日益增多,合理配置有限水资源,协调不同区域对水资源需求,促进水质整体改善,是中国实现可持续发展的关键因素。在对中国水资源供需状况进行多元统计分析基础上,从水量分配和水污染治理两个方面对水资源配置管理进行研究,总结中国现有水量分配方案经验,建立了基于流域统一管理的水量配置模型,提出了促进水权交易的评价指标与方法,从投入产出角度研究了水污染治理效率。
系统研究了水权管理中的相关因素、性质、地位,对目前水权管理类型、方法、政策进行了比较；从水资源配置优化技术的应用、利益相关者权益保护制度建立、配置水资源新手段的选取等方面,分析了国内外在水权配置管理的差距；从水资源污染物的总量控制、水污染治理的资金来源、排污权交易、节水技术的应用等方面,探讨了水污染治理的发展方向。明确了水资源配置管理的内涵、目标和构成要素,提出中国水资源配置管理存在问题。
对中国各地区水资源供应、需求及可持续利用状况进行了实证研究。根据水资源状况评价基本原则,在分析水资源供应不同来源,明确水资源需求主要方面基础上,分别建立了体现水资源供应和需求的指标体系。应用因子分析模型对统计数据进行分析,将各地区水资源供应能力分成自然供水能力、实际供水能力、节省水量三个主因子,根据每个主因子值对全国各地区供水能力进行分类,比较不同供水类型在东部、中部、西部、东北地区的比例,对各地区供水能力的差异做出定量分析；将各地区水资源需求分成发展与环境对水资源需求、水资源单位消耗、农业水资源浪费、水资源已消耗程度四个主因子,与供水能力采用相同方式进行分类和比较。综合水资源供应能力和需求能力,得到不同地区水资源可持续利用能力,通过以上三方面的分析为水资源配置管理提供了依据。
分析了流域水量配置方案要素,提出了基于模拟退火径向基神经网络的水量配置模型。根据对中国黄河、永定河、江西省五河、广东东江、大凌河等已有典型水量配置方案的比较,从生态水量预留、不同来水年度调节、不同产业水量划分、水质控制、地下水取水量等方面总结了不同配水方案优点,在以供定需、水量水质同时控制、统一协调流域生态水量原则下,建立了水量配置指标体系,反映了生活用水、经济发展用水、水质控制和生态用水各方面需求,体现了协调发展与环境的水量配置目标。根据中国水量分配特点,构建了基于模拟退火优化的径向基神经网络水量分配模型,提高了收敛速度,避免落入局部最优解,实现了将区域发展与流域统一水量分配相结合。
根据东阳义乌、张掖、内蒙古、宁夏等水权交易实践,分析水权交易形成要素,将整个水权交易过程划分为交易动力、市场交易、交易效应、法律法规、政府监督等子系统,从水权交易合理性、交易绩效、政府调控与服务能力、市场机制完备性、环境保护等方面对水权交易进行评价。
综合水污染物分类、水质标准、污染物排放标准,建立了水资源污染评价指标体系,比较不同水污染评价方法优缺点,选择熵权方法计算不同污染物权重,根据不同时期污染物权重变化明确了污染变化趋势。构建了反映水污染治理效率投入产出的指标体系,应用DEA模型得到中国不同地区水污染治理效率,引入Malmqusit指数分析了水污染治理效率变化趋势。
最后,从强化水资源配置统一管理、促进水市场发展、治理水污染等方面,提出完善水资源配置管理策略。
Water resource is lack in China. Along with population growth and economy development, water resource demands are mounting up gradually. There are key factors to carry out sustainable development in China, such as rational allocation of limited water resources, coordinating water resource requirements of different regions and promoting water quality integrally improvement. Based on multivariate statistical analysis aiming at water resource supply and requirements in China, investigations have been done on water resource allocation management about water quantity distribution and water pollution control. Summing up nowadays experiences of water quantity distribution program in China, water quantity allocation model has been established based on unification basin management, evaluation indicators and methods have been put forward to promote tradable water right, water pollution control efficiency has been investigated from the input-output perspective.
Relative factors, characters and statuses of water right management have been systematic researched. Types of the current water right management, methods and policies have been compared. Differences are analyzed between China and overseas countries at aspect of water right allocation management, such as optimization techniques application in water allocation, establishing policy of stakeholder rights and interests protection, choosing new methods of water resource allocation. Development directions of water pollution control have been discussed, such as gross control to water pollutants, financing resource of water pollution control, emissions trading, and technology applications in water-saving. The meaning, goal and elements of water allocation management have been defined; the problems of water allocation management in China have been promoted.
Empirical research has been done to water resource supply, demand and sustainable use in various regions of China. Following basis principle of water resource status assessment, water resource supply and demand indicators systems are established based on analyzing different sources of water supply and main aspect of water resource demand. Applying factor analysis model, water resource supply ability have been divided into three main factors which include nature water supply ability, practical water supply ability and water-saving ability. Quantitative analysis to difference of water resource supply ability in various regions has been done, based on water resource supply ability of different regions in China has been classified according to main factor value, proportion comparison of water supply ability type in east, central, west and northeast China has been done. Adopting the same method as water resource supply ability analysis, classification and comparison of water resource demand have been done. The four main factors of water resource demand in areas are defined as water resource demand of development and environment, water resource unit consumption, wasted water resource in agriculture and water resource consumed level. Water resource sustainable utilization ability can be gained based on integrating water resource supply ability and demand ability, management basis is provided for water allocation via three aspect analysis hereinbefore.
Radial basis function neural networks water allocation model which is improved by simulated annealing arithmetic has been established according to element analysis of basin water quantity allocation project. Comparison of typical water allocation projects is done from Yellow River, Yongding River, five rivers basin in Jiangxi province, Dong River, Daling River. Advantages of different allocation projects are summarized from various aspects which include ecological reserve water, adjustment water quantity in different years, different industries water consuming quantity, water quality control and groundwater consuming quantity etc. Water quantity allocation indicators system is established on the principle of fixing water demand by water supply in basin, controlling water quantify and water quality at the same time, regulating basin ecological water quantify in a unified way. Water quantity allocation indicators system reflects the demand of water consumption in living, economy development, water quality controlling, and ecological protection, which harmonizes economy development and environment protecting. Taking into account water quantify allocation characteristic in China, radial basis function neural network is established which based on simulated annealing arithmetic Optimization. Global optimization feature of simulated annealing is employed to adjust the network weights. The new arithmetic can keep the network from getting into local minimum. Learning speed of the network is more quickly than the other neural network methods, and unification has been achieved in regional economy development and basin water allocation.
The elements of tradable water right are analyzed based on current practices in Dongyang and Yiwu, Zhangye, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia etc areas. Tradable water right system is compartmentalized into some subsystems, such as trading power, market transactions, trading effect, laws and regulations, government supervision. Evaluation of tradable water right has been analyzed from four aspects which include transaction rationality, transaction performance, government control ability and maturity of market mechanism.
Indicators system to evaluate water pollution is established based on integrating water pollutants classify standard, water quality standard and pollutants emission standard. Advantages and shortcomings of different evaluating methods are compared; industry water pollutants weight is calculated by entropy weight method. Trend of industry water pollutants is definite based on weight changing in different periods. Input and output evaluation system reflects water pollution control efficiency is established. Water pollution control efficiency of different areas in China is gained by DEA model, and its trend is analyzed by the means of Malmqusit Indicators.
Water resource allocation perfect strategies have been promoted about strengthening centralized management, accelerating water market development, controlling water pollution at last.
系统研究了水权管理中的相关因素、性质、地位,对目前水权管理类型、方法、政策进行了比较；从水资源配置优化技术的应用、利益相关者权益保护制度建立、配置水资源新手段的选取等方面,分析了国内外在水权配置管理的差距；从水资源污染物的总量控制、水污染治理的资金来源、排污权交易、节水技术的应用等方面,探讨了水污染治理的发展方向。明确了水资源配置管理的内涵、目标和构成要素,提出中国水资源配置管理存在问题。
对中国各地区水资源供应、需求及可持续利用状况进行了实证研究。根据水资源状况评价基本原则,在分析水资源供应不同来源,明确水资源需求主要方面基础上,分别建立了体现水资源供应和需求的指标体系。应用因子分析模型对统计数据进行分析,将各地区水资源供应能力分成自然供水能力、实际供水能力、节省水量三个主因子,根据每个主因子值对全国各地区供水能力进行分类,比较不同供水类型在东部、中部、西部、东北地区的比例,对各地区供水能力的差异做出定量分析；将各地区水资源需求分成发展与环境对水资源需求、水资源单位消耗、农业水资源浪费、水资源已消耗程度四个主因子,与供水能力采用相同方式进行分类和比较。综合水资源供应能力和需求能力,得到不同地区水资源可持续利用能力,通过以上三方面的分析为水资源配置管理提供了依据。
分析了流域水量配置方案要素,提出了基于模拟退火径向基神经网络的水量配置模型。根据对中国黄河、永定河、江西省五河、广东东江、大凌河等已有典型水量配置方案的比较,从生态水量预留、不同来水年度调节、不同产业水量划分、水质控制、地下水取水量等方面总结了不同配水方案优点,在以供定需、水量水质同时控制、统一协调流域生态水量原则下,建立了水量配置指标体系,反映了生活用水、经济发展用水、水质控制和生态用水各方面需求,体现了协调发展与环境的水量配置目标。根据中国水量分配特点,构建了基于模拟退火优化的径向基神经网络水量分配模型,提高了收敛速度,避免落入局部最优解,实现了将区域发展与流域统一水量分配相结合。
根据东阳义乌、张掖、内蒙古、宁夏等水权交易实践,分析水权交易形成要素,将整个水权交易过程划分为交易动力、市场交易、交易效应、法律法规、政府监督等子系统,从水权交易合理性、交易绩效、政府调控与服务能力、市场机制完备性、环境保护等方面对水权交易进行评价。
综合水污染物分类、水质标准、污染物排放标准,建立了水资源污染评价指标体系,比较不同水污染评价方法优缺点,选择熵权方法计算不同污染物权重,根据不同时期污染物权重变化明确了污染变化趋势。构建了反映水污染治理效率投入产出的指标体系,应用DEA模型得到中国不同地区水污染治理效率,引入Malmqusit指数分析了水污染治理效率变化趋势。
最后,从强化水资源配置统一管理、促进水市场发展、治理水污染等方面,提出完善水资源配置管理策略。
Water resource is lack in China. Along with population growth and economy development, water resource demands are mounting up gradually. There are key factors to carry out sustainable development in China, such as rational allocation of limited water resources, coordinating water resource requirements of different regions and promoting water quality integrally improvement. Based on multivariate statistical analysis aiming at water resource supply and requirements in China, investigations have been done on water resource allocation management about water quantity distribution and water pollution control. Summing up nowadays experiences of water quantity distribution program in China, water quantity allocation model has been established based on unification basin management, evaluation indicators and methods have been put forward to promote tradable water right, water pollution control efficiency has been investigated from the input-output perspective.
Relative factors, characters and statuses of water right management have been systematic researched. Types of the current water right management, methods and policies have been compared. Differences are analyzed between China and overseas countries at aspect of water right allocation management, such as optimization techniques application in water allocation, establishing policy of stakeholder rights and interests protection, choosing new methods of water resource allocation. Development directions of water pollution control have been discussed, such as gross control to water pollutants, financing resource of water pollution control, emissions trading, and technology applications in water-saving. The meaning, goal and elements of water allocation management have been defined; the problems of water allocation management in China have been promoted.
Empirical research has been done to water resource supply, demand and sustainable use in various regions of China. Following basis principle of water resource status assessment, water resource supply and demand indicators systems are established based on analyzing different sources of water supply and main aspect of water resource demand. Applying factor analysis model, water resource supply ability have been divided into three main factors which include nature water supply ability, practical water supply ability and water-saving ability. Quantitative analysis to difference of water resource supply ability in various regions has been done, based on water resource supply ability of different regions in China has been classified according to main factor value, proportion comparison of water supply ability type in east, central, west and northeast China has been done. Adopting the same method as water resource supply ability analysis, classification and comparison of water resource demand have been done. The four main factors of water resource demand in areas are defined as water resource demand of development and environment, water resource unit consumption, wasted water resource in agriculture and water resource consumed level. Water resource sustainable utilization ability can be gained based on integrating water resource supply ability and demand ability, management basis is provided for water allocation via three aspect analysis hereinbefore.
Radial basis function neural networks water allocation model which is improved by simulated annealing arithmetic has been established according to element analysis of basin water quantity allocation project. Comparison of typical water allocation projects is done from Yellow River, Yongding River, five rivers basin in Jiangxi province, Dong River, Daling River. Advantages of different allocation projects are summarized from various aspects which include ecological reserve water, adjustment water quantity in different years, different industries water consuming quantity, water quality control and groundwater consuming quantity etc. Water quantity allocation indicators system is established on the principle of fixing water demand by water supply in basin, controlling water quantify and water quality at the same time, regulating basin ecological water quantify in a unified way. Water quantity allocation indicators system reflects the demand of water consumption in living, economy development, water quality controlling, and ecological protection, which harmonizes economy development and environment protecting. Taking into account water quantify allocation characteristic in China, radial basis function neural network is established which based on simulated annealing arithmetic Optimization. Global optimization feature of simulated annealing is employed to adjust the network weights. The new arithmetic can keep the network from getting into local minimum. Learning speed of the network is more quickly than the other neural network methods, and unification has been achieved in regional economy development and basin water allocation.
The elements of tradable water right are analyzed based on current practices in Dongyang and Yiwu, Zhangye, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia etc areas. Tradable water right system is compartmentalized into some subsystems, such as trading power, market transactions, trading effect, laws and regulations, government supervision. Evaluation of tradable water right has been analyzed from four aspects which include transaction rationality, transaction performance, government control ability and maturity of market mechanism.
Indicators system to evaluate water pollution is established based on integrating water pollutants classify standard, water quality standard and pollutants emission standard. Advantages and shortcomings of different evaluating methods are compared; industry water pollutants weight is calculated by entropy weight method. Trend of industry water pollutants is definite based on weight changing in different periods. Input and output evaluation system reflects water pollution control efficiency is established. Water pollution control efficiency of different areas in China is gained by DEA model, and its trend is analyzed by the means of Malmqusit Indicators.
Water resource allocation perfect strategies have been promoted about strengthening centralized management, accelerating water market development, controlling water pollution at last.
引文
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