基于国家利益分析的国际碳减排合作研究
|
摘要
在气候变化大背景下,碳减排问题成为近年来全球关注的焦点。由气候变化和碳减排自身的特点决定,国际合作是最合理的减排行动方式。然而国家间日趋扩大的减排立场分歧却与全球日益凸显的气候变化影响形成了鲜明的对比。国际合作的核心在于国家利益,当前国际碳减排合作面临的困境,反映了各国间在减排利益上的差异和矛盾。
国际国内已有许多学者对于碳减排相关的成本和收益进行过研究,但这些研究大多主要看重全球性的成本收益分析而轻国家分析,对于国家特点关注不足,尤其缺少对于当前国际气候谈判领域主要利益群体的比较分析。即使有学者在对国家间碳减排的成本收益进行比较时,选取的视角也大都比较片面,往往只侧重于碳减排的一部分收益或成本,或者是影响利益的一部分因素,缺少全面的系统性分析。更有许多研究在研究过程中脱离实际,甚至带有明显的倾向性,例如夸大气候变化的损失和发展中国家具有的减排潜力,而忽略气候变化的诸多不确定性、发达国家在全球减排中所能获得的潜在收益、发展中国家减排的资源劣势和所需要付出的发展成本等。这些问题的存在使得当前的研究成果往往无法准确解释各国在碳减排问题上的不同立场以及国际气候谈判为何会频频陷入困境,对于实际工作缺乏指导意义。
由此,本文尝试运用综合指标分析以及模型分析等经济学研究方法,从国家利益比较的角度研究国际碳减排合作中的障碍和解决思路,对碳减排领域中真实的利益分布情况和未来碳减排合作框架内合理的利益分配机制进行了较为系统的研究。
首先,对当前国际气候谈判中存在的主要利益群体及其立场进行了整理和界定,将核心问题进一步细化为不同利益群体间的利益比较问题；然后,重点研究了与碳减排相关的收益和成本的构成以及影响这些收益和成本的主要因素,并指出了不同类型国家间在各类收益和成本上的差异,为进行综合的利益分析建立了基础；在此基础上,运用情景分析方法和博弈分析方法对不同利益群体在国际合作减排情景下可能获得的利益结果和由此对国际碳减排合作产生的影响进行了分析和解读,证明了利益差异的存在对于建立国际碳减排合作的关键影响；最后,针对在碳减排的利益平衡方面存在的问题,提出通过四项关键性制度的建设实现国际碳减排合作的目标。
和现有的碳减排研究相比,本文的主要创新点包括：
第一,系统地研究了气候变化损失的产生、类型和对不同类型国家的影响机理,指出并纠正了当前研究的不足。同时提出并论证了全球合作减排情景下拥有低碳优势的国家可获得的潜在收益,与减缓气候变化这一直接收益共同组成了更加完善的碳减排收益体系。
第二,对碳减排的成本进行了执行成本和发展成本的划分,并综合分析了各类成本的产生形式和影响因素,特别是被多数研究所忽视的发展成本的产生机理,为碳减排的成本研究建立了更加完整的分析框架。
第三,在全面研究碳减排各项成本收益的基础上,建立了国家利益和国际碳减排合作的情景分析和博弈分析模型,模型分析结果与国际谈判走势和各国立场之间具有较高的一致性。进而据此从利益平衡的角度提出了通过四项关键性制度建设,提高各国绝对利益的可获得性,均衡相对收益的差异性,降低各国的立场分歧,从而成功达成国际碳减排合作的理想愿景。
Under the circumstance of climate change, carbon emission reduction has become the global focus in recent years. The characteristics of climate change and carbon abatement require international cooperation, however, the growing global impact of climate change and differences in emission reduction position of countries are in sharp contrast. According to theories of international cooperation, national interests are the core of international cooperation. So the current international cooperation dilemma of carbon emissions reflects the differences and conflicts on interests between countries.
Researchers from home and abroad have already made many research and studies on the costs and benefits of carbon abatement. These studies mainly focus on the global cost-benefit analysis, but show little attention to the analysis of different characteristic of each country, especially the cooperation and analysis of the major interest groups in the field of international climate negotiations. Even the little cost-benefit analysis on the national level is some kind of one-sided, only concerning part of the revenues or costs of carbon emission reduction, or some influential factors, which lacks comprehensive and systematic analysis. Moreover, divorced from reality, many studies in this field have obvious bias, such as exaggerating the loss of climate change and the emission reduction potential in developing countries while ignoring many uncertainties of climate change, the potential gains of developed countries, and the development costs which developing countries have to pay during the global carbon reduction process. These problems make the current researches unable to explain the different positions of countries in the carbon abatement, the deadlock of international climate negotiations and lack practical guidance.
Thus, in this dissertation, economic analyzing tools such as comprehensive index analysis and model analysis are used in the systematical research on the comparison of national interests in the international cooperation framework of carbon emissions reduction.
First, the major interest groups of international climate negotiations and their positions are consolidated and defined, and core issues of the article are further refined as the interests between different interest groups; then, the costs and benefits, associated with carbon reduction, and their factors are studied. Besides, the variation of benefits and costs in the different types of countries are pointed out, which establish the basis for comprehensive benefit analysis. On this basis, scenario analysis and game analysis are used to estimate the different expected benefits of interest groups in international cooperation, which proved the key impact of interest differences on international cooperation in carbon abatement. Finally, four key institutional measures are proposed to achieve carbon reduction targets in international cooperation.
Comparing to current studies on carbon emissions abatement, this research features the following aspects of innovations.
Firstly, the article systematically studies the causes and types of the loss of climate change, and it impacts on different countries, and pointed out the deficiencies of current research. It also proposed and demonstrated the potential benefits that low-carbon countries may obtain under global cooperation. These potential benefits, together with the mitigation, composed the better carbon reduction system.
Secondly, the carbon reduction costs are divided into implementation costs and development costs. Besides, the forms and factors of different costs are discussed, especially the formation mechanism of the development costs, which is neglected by most researches. The discussion set a comprehensive analytical framework for the costs studies of carbon reduction.
Thirdly, based on the research of the costs and benefits of carbon abatement, a scenario analysis model and a game theory model are set up to study the national profits and international cooperation of carbon reduction, whose results have high consistency with the trend of international climate negotiations and the real attitude of different countries. Then, from the perspective of interest balance, the article indicated that the international cooperation system of carbon abatement can be established through four key institutional measures which will improve the availability of the absolute interest of countries, lower the gaps of their relative interest and remove the differences of national position.
国际国内已有许多学者对于碳减排相关的成本和收益进行过研究,但这些研究大多主要看重全球性的成本收益分析而轻国家分析,对于国家特点关注不足,尤其缺少对于当前国际气候谈判领域主要利益群体的比较分析。即使有学者在对国家间碳减排的成本收益进行比较时,选取的视角也大都比较片面,往往只侧重于碳减排的一部分收益或成本,或者是影响利益的一部分因素,缺少全面的系统性分析。更有许多研究在研究过程中脱离实际,甚至带有明显的倾向性,例如夸大气候变化的损失和发展中国家具有的减排潜力,而忽略气候变化的诸多不确定性、发达国家在全球减排中所能获得的潜在收益、发展中国家减排的资源劣势和所需要付出的发展成本等。这些问题的存在使得当前的研究成果往往无法准确解释各国在碳减排问题上的不同立场以及国际气候谈判为何会频频陷入困境,对于实际工作缺乏指导意义。
由此,本文尝试运用综合指标分析以及模型分析等经济学研究方法,从国家利益比较的角度研究国际碳减排合作中的障碍和解决思路,对碳减排领域中真实的利益分布情况和未来碳减排合作框架内合理的利益分配机制进行了较为系统的研究。
首先,对当前国际气候谈判中存在的主要利益群体及其立场进行了整理和界定,将核心问题进一步细化为不同利益群体间的利益比较问题；然后,重点研究了与碳减排相关的收益和成本的构成以及影响这些收益和成本的主要因素,并指出了不同类型国家间在各类收益和成本上的差异,为进行综合的利益分析建立了基础；在此基础上,运用情景分析方法和博弈分析方法对不同利益群体在国际合作减排情景下可能获得的利益结果和由此对国际碳减排合作产生的影响进行了分析和解读,证明了利益差异的存在对于建立国际碳减排合作的关键影响；最后,针对在碳减排的利益平衡方面存在的问题,提出通过四项关键性制度的建设实现国际碳减排合作的目标。
和现有的碳减排研究相比,本文的主要创新点包括：
第一,系统地研究了气候变化损失的产生、类型和对不同类型国家的影响机理,指出并纠正了当前研究的不足。同时提出并论证了全球合作减排情景下拥有低碳优势的国家可获得的潜在收益,与减缓气候变化这一直接收益共同组成了更加完善的碳减排收益体系。
第二,对碳减排的成本进行了执行成本和发展成本的划分,并综合分析了各类成本的产生形式和影响因素,特别是被多数研究所忽视的发展成本的产生机理,为碳减排的成本研究建立了更加完整的分析框架。
第三,在全面研究碳减排各项成本收益的基础上,建立了国家利益和国际碳减排合作的情景分析和博弈分析模型,模型分析结果与国际谈判走势和各国立场之间具有较高的一致性。进而据此从利益平衡的角度提出了通过四项关键性制度建设,提高各国绝对利益的可获得性,均衡相对收益的差异性,降低各国的立场分歧,从而成功达成国际碳减排合作的理想愿景。
Under the circumstance of climate change, carbon emission reduction has become the global focus in recent years. The characteristics of climate change and carbon abatement require international cooperation, however, the growing global impact of climate change and differences in emission reduction position of countries are in sharp contrast. According to theories of international cooperation, national interests are the core of international cooperation. So the current international cooperation dilemma of carbon emissions reflects the differences and conflicts on interests between countries.
Researchers from home and abroad have already made many research and studies on the costs and benefits of carbon abatement. These studies mainly focus on the global cost-benefit analysis, but show little attention to the analysis of different characteristic of each country, especially the cooperation and analysis of the major interest groups in the field of international climate negotiations. Even the little cost-benefit analysis on the national level is some kind of one-sided, only concerning part of the revenues or costs of carbon emission reduction, or some influential factors, which lacks comprehensive and systematic analysis. Moreover, divorced from reality, many studies in this field have obvious bias, such as exaggerating the loss of climate change and the emission reduction potential in developing countries while ignoring many uncertainties of climate change, the potential gains of developed countries, and the development costs which developing countries have to pay during the global carbon reduction process. These problems make the current researches unable to explain the different positions of countries in the carbon abatement, the deadlock of international climate negotiations and lack practical guidance.
Thus, in this dissertation, economic analyzing tools such as comprehensive index analysis and model analysis are used in the systematical research on the comparison of national interests in the international cooperation framework of carbon emissions reduction.
First, the major interest groups of international climate negotiations and their positions are consolidated and defined, and core issues of the article are further refined as the interests between different interest groups; then, the costs and benefits, associated with carbon reduction, and their factors are studied. Besides, the variation of benefits and costs in the different types of countries are pointed out, which establish the basis for comprehensive benefit analysis. On this basis, scenario analysis and game analysis are used to estimate the different expected benefits of interest groups in international cooperation, which proved the key impact of interest differences on international cooperation in carbon abatement. Finally, four key institutional measures are proposed to achieve carbon reduction targets in international cooperation.
Comparing to current studies on carbon emissions abatement, this research features the following aspects of innovations.
Firstly, the article systematically studies the causes and types of the loss of climate change, and it impacts on different countries, and pointed out the deficiencies of current research. It also proposed and demonstrated the potential benefits that low-carbon countries may obtain under global cooperation. These potential benefits, together with the mitigation, composed the better carbon reduction system.
Secondly, the carbon reduction costs are divided into implementation costs and development costs. Besides, the forms and factors of different costs are discussed, especially the formation mechanism of the development costs, which is neglected by most researches. The discussion set a comprehensive analytical framework for the costs studies of carbon reduction.
Thirdly, based on the research of the costs and benefits of carbon abatement, a scenario analysis model and a game theory model are set up to study the national profits and international cooperation of carbon reduction, whose results have high consistency with the trend of international climate negotiations and the real attitude of different countries. Then, from the perspective of interest balance, the article indicated that the international cooperation system of carbon abatement can be established through four key institutional measures which will improve the availability of the absolute interest of countries, lower the gaps of their relative interest and remove the differences of national position.
引文
[1]戴星翼.环境经济与发展经济学[M].上海：立信会计出版社,1995.
[2]戴星翼.环境资源：现代文明的基石[M].北京：当代中国出版社,1997.
[3]戴星翼.走向绿色的发展[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,1998.
[4]戴星翼.以减物质化应对上海生活垃圾的挑战[A].见：尹继佐.2003年上海资源环境蓝皮书[M].上海：上海社会科学院出版社,2002：168-201.
[5]戴星翼.循环的动力[A].见：张锦高.资源环境经济学进展(1)[M].湖北：湖北人民出版社,2004.
[6]戴星翼,俞厚未,董梅.生态服务的价值实现[M].北京：科学出版社,2005.
[7]Chow,K.K超越巴厘岛会议的技术转让与发展[A].见：刘燕华.气候变化与科技创新[M].北京：科学技术出版社,2009：265-266.
[8]Graedel,T.E.,Allenby,B.R产业生态学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2004.
[9]Kalaydjian,F..CO2的封存——挑战、关键技术与欧洲案例[A].见：刘燕华.气候变化与科技创新[M].北京：科学技术出版社,2009：265-266.
[10]Kasper,W解决全球气候变暖可以很人性化[N],华尔街日报中文版,2006,1(11)
[11]Majumdar,B..IPCC主席：哥本哈根谈判让“基础四国”影响力增强[N],路透社,2009,12(23)
[12]WWEA2008年世界风电发展情况综述[R].Bonn：WorldWindEnergyAssociation,2009.
[13]艾轶伦.清洁发展机制下国际经济合作问题研究[D].长春：吉林大学,2008.
[14]曹金平.岛礁：不沉的航空母舰[J].科技与国力,2002(1)：114-115.
[15]曹世功.韩国环保支出居世界领先水平[N].经济日报,2008,2(19)：08.
[16]陈洪波,蒋天文.温室气体减排的国际政治博弈[J].世界经济与政治,2005(10)：58-63.
[17]陈英姿,李雨潼.低碳经济与我国区域能源利用研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2009,49(2)：66-73.
[18]崔大鹏.国际气候合作的政治经济学分析[M].北京：商务印书馆,2003.
[19]丁仲礼,段晓男,葛全胜,张志强.国际温室气体减排方案评估及中国长期排放权讨论[J].中国科学,2009,39(12)：1659-1671.
[20]付允,马永欢,刘怡君,牛文元.低碳经济的发展模式研究[J].中国人口·资 源与环境,2008,18(3)：14-19.
[21]国际新能源网.欧佩克警告说生物燃料将推升油价[EB/OL].http: //www.in-en.com/newenergy/html/newenergy-200720070608100376.html, 2007-06-08.
[22]国家气候变化对策协调小组办公室.全球气候变化——人类面临的挑战[M].北京：商务印书馆,2005.
[23]韩小妮.“全球变暖说”越来越不可信[N].新闻晚报,2010,3(19)：A1-07.
[24]黄永明.气候变化：大趋势中的不确定性[N].南方周末,2010,1(14)E26.
[25]姜波克.均衡汇率理论和政策的新框架[J].中国社会科学,2006(1)：15-22.
[26]姜波克.均衡汇率理论和政策新框架的新探索——对基本模型的再解释[J].东南学术,2007a(2)：96-102.
[27]姜波克.均衡汇率理论和政策新框架的再探索[J].复旦学报(社会科学版),2007b(2)：41-49.
[28]姜波克.国际金融新编(第四版)[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2008.
[29]姜克隽,胡秀莲,庄幸,刘强.中国2050年低碳情景和低碳发展之路[J].中外能源,2009,14(6)：1-7.
[30]金亨真.西方国际关系理论中新现实主义和新自由主义的国际合作论[J].国际论坛,2004,6(5)：1-7.
[31]金乐琴,刘瑞.低碳经济与中国发展模式转型[J].经济问题探索,2009(1)：84-87.
[32]科技部.日本2020年减排11%的年温室气体[EB/OL].http: //www.most.gov.cn/gnwkjdt/200803/t20080327_60139.htm,2008-03-28.
[33]李格琴.西方国际合作理论研究述评[J].山东社会科学,2008(7)：134-139.
[34]李海涛,许学工,刘文政.国际碳减排活动中的利益博弈和中国策略的思考[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(5)：93-97.
[35]李虎军.继WTO之后最重要的一场国际谈判[N].南方周末,2007,2(15)A2.
[36]李梅影.阿尔斯通在华夺6000万欧元大单[N].国际金融报,2005,1(24)：04.
[37]李丕东.中国能源环境政策的一般均衡分析[D].厦门：厦门大学,2008.
[38]李玉文,徐中民,王勇,焦文献.环境库兹涅茨曲线研究进展[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2005,15(5)：7-14.
[39]联合国.联合国气候变化框架公约[Z].政府间谈判委员会(INC),1992.
[40]联合国环境规划署.全球环境展望2006[R].内罗毕：联合国环境规划署,2006.
[41]联合国环境规划署.UNEP年鉴2008[R].内罗毕：联合国环境规划署,2008.
[42]联合国环境规划署.UNEP年鉴2009[R].内罗毕：联合国环境规划署,2009.
[43]刘强.发达能源供应及工业部门减排政策[R].北京：国家发改委能源研究所,2005.
[44]刘晓雪.地球“降温大会”今日火热揭幕[N].法制晚报,2009,12(7)A18.
[45]刘洋.全球太阳能市场正在洗牌[N].中国能源报,2009,9(7)：16.
[46]潘家华.后京都国际气候协定的谈判趋势与对策思考[J].气候变化研究进展,2005,1(1)：10-15.
[47]潘家华.哥本哈根之后的气候走向[J].外交评论,2009(6)：1-4.
[48]潘家华,郑艳.基于人际公平的碳排放概念及其理论含义[J].世界经济与政治,2009(10)：6-17.
[49]潘家华,朱仙丽.人文发展的基本需要分析及其在国际气候制度设计中的应用[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(6)：23-32.
[50]潘家华,庄贵阳,陈迎.减缓气候变化的经济分析[M].北京：气象出版社,2003.
[51]潘家华,庄贵阳,陈迎,吴向阳.英国低碳发展的激励措施及其借鉴[J].科学新闻,2006(24)：14-15.
[52]邱寿丰.循环经济规划的生态效率方法及应用——以上海为例[D].上海：同济大学,2007.
[53]任力.国外发展低碳经济的政策及启示[J].发展研究,2009(2)：23-27.
[54]任力.低碳经济与中国经济可持续发展[J].社会科学家,2009(2)：47-50.
[55]师琰.OPEC秘书长巴德里：发达国家应率先减排[N].21世纪经济报道,2009,12(16)：03.
[56]宋秀琚.美国国际合作理论研究综述[J].国外社会科学,2005(3)：22-28.
[57]谭丹,黄贤金.我国东、中、西部地区经济发展与碳排放的关联分析及比较[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(3)：54-57.
[58]王璟珉.全球气候变化问题的认知比较研究[D].青岛：中国海洋大学,2007.
[59]王君.大型发电设备制造企业技术引进[J].电力设备市场,2008(4)113-115.
[60]王艳芬.澳大利亚与气候变化国际公约[J].徐州师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2004,30(4)：113-116.
[61]王宇奇,关超,张星谕.我国电站设备企业国际竞争力比较研究[J].边疆经济与文化,2009(11)：20-22.
[62]吴敬琏.中国增长模式抉择[M].上海：远东出版社,2006.
[63]谢识予.经济博弈论[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,1997.
[64]徐锭明,赖江南.知行结合,引领变革——英国低碳发展考察报告[J].能源政策研究,2008(4)：4-8.
[65]徐华清.应对气候变化的能源战略与对策[J].环境保护,2007(6)：47-49.
[66]徐华清等.减缓气候变化的最新科学认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(4)：187-194.
[67]杨传敏.小岛国呼救：温控≤1.5℃[N].南方都市报,2009,12(11)：A32.
[68]杨建龙.加快中国金融体制改革推动RE&EE投融资体系发展[A].见：2050中国能源和碳排放研究课题组.2050中国能源和碳排放报告[M].北京：科学出版社,2009：301-370.
[69]杨教,丁峰.图瓦卢灭顶之灾“讣告”[J].科技文萃,2002(2)：26-28.
[70]杨筱亦.全球变暖和自然灾害没关系了?[N].成都商报,2010,1(25)：15.
[71]姚强.技术转让的困境与能源领域的案例[A].见：刘燕华.气候变化与科技创新[M].北京：科学技术出版社,2009：265-266.
[72]俞正梁.当代国际关系学导论[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,1996.
[73]袁瑛.谁绑架了科学?IPCC遭遇史上最强信任危机[N].南方周末,2010,2(4)：C13.
[74]曾忠禄,张冬梅.不确定环境下解读未来的方法：情景分析法[J].情报杂志,2005(5)：14-16.
[75]张海滨.美国关于气候变化对国家安全影响的研究述评[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,5(3)：145-150.
[76]张坤民.低碳世界中的中国：地位、挑战与战略[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(3)：1-7.
[77]张月鸿等.气候变化风险的新型分类[J].地理研究,2008,27(4)：763-774.
[78]赵学亮.“小岛国联盟”提议发达国家减排45%[EB/0L].环球网http：//world.huanqiu.com/roll/2009-12/658583.html,2009-12-12.
[79]赵宗慈.气候变化的科学不确定性与挑战[A].见：刘燕华.气候变化与科技创新[M].北京：科学技术出版社,2009：265-266.
[80]中国经济信息网.2008中国行业年度报告系列之能源[EB/0L].http：//www.cei.gov.cn/,2010-01-20.
[81]中国-欧盟清洁发展机制促进项目.中国CDM项目中的技术转让[R].北京：中国-欧盟清洁发展机制促进项目,2009.
[82]钟海玲,沈永平.2007年全球气候变化回顾[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(1)：53-56.
[83]中华人民共和国国家统计局.2008年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].http: //www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/ndtjgb/qgndtjgb/t20090226_402540710.htm, 2009-02-26.
[84]中新网.海地地震所致经济损失粗估可能达10亿美元[EB/0L].中国新闻网http: //www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/gj-bm/news/2010/01-23/2088003.shtml, 2010-01-23.
[85]周剑,何建坤.欧盟气候变化政策及其经济影响[J].现代国际关系,2009(2)：38-43.
[86]朱剑红.应对气候变化,中国积极负责(在国新办新闻发布会上)[N].人民日报,2009,11(27)：第二版.
[87]朱松丽.欧盟：推进气候变化应对进程的重要角色[J].世界环境,2009(1)：16-18.
[88]庄贵阳.中国经济低碳发展的途径与潜力分析[J].国际技术经济研究,2005,8(3)：8-12.
[89]庄贵阳.低碳经济：气候变化背景下中国的发展之路[M].北京：气象出版社,2007.
[90]庄贵阳.后京都时代国际气候治理与中国的战略选择[J].世界经济与政治,2008(8)：6-16.
[91]庄贵阳.中国发展低碳经济的困难与障碍分析[J].江西社会科学,2009(7)：20-26.
[92]庄贵阳.哥本哈根气候博弈与中国角色的再认识[J].外交评论,2009(6)13-21.
[93]庄贵阳,陈迎.试析国际气候谈判中的国家集团及其影响[J].太平洋学报,2001(2)：72-78.
[94]庄贵阳,陈迎.国际气候制度与中国[M].北京：世界知识出版社,2005.
[95]庄贵阳,朱仙丽,赵行姝.全球环境与气候治理[M].杭州：浙江人民出版社,2009.
[96]Ackerman, F., E.A., S., C., H. and S., A., Did the Stern Review underestimate US andglobal climate damages?[J]. Energy Policy,2009,37(4):2717-2721.
[97]Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J., Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle [J]. Nature,2002,419(6903):224-232.
[98]Allen, M. R., Stott, P. A., Mitchell, J. F. B. and al, e., Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change [J]. Nature,2000, 407(6804):617-620.
[99]Anand, S. and Sen, A. K., Human development and economic sustainability [J]. World Development,2000,28(12):2029-2049.
[100]Ang, B. W., Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:which is the preferred method? [J]. Energy Policy,2004,32(9):1131-1139.
[101]Anthoff, D., Hepburnd, C. and Tol, R. S. J., Equity weighting and the marginal damage costs of climate change [J]. Ecological Economics,2009,68(3):836-849.
[102]Anthoff, D., Nicholls, R., Tol, R. S. J. and Vafeidis, A. T., Global and regional exposure to large rises in sea-level [R]. Norwich:Tyndall Centre,2006.
[103]Arnell, N. W., Climate change and water resources [A]. In:Schellnhuber, H. J., Avoiding dangerous climate change [M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2006:167-176.
[104]Ascher, W., Forecasting:An appraisal for policy-makers and planners [M]. Baltimore:Johns Hopkins University Press,1978.
[105]Babiker, M. H., Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage [J]. Journal of International Economics,2005,65(2):421-445.
[106]Babiker, M. H., Reilly, J., Mayer, J. M. and et al, The emissions prediction and policy analysis (EPPA) model:revisions, sensitivities and comparisons of results [M]. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,2001.
[107]Baer, P. and Mastrandrea, M., High Stakes:Designing emissions pathways to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change [R]. London:Institute for Public Policy Research,2006.
[108]Baettig, M. B., Wild, M. and Imboden, D. M., A climate change index:Where climate change may be most prominent in the 21st century [J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2007,34(1):1-6.
[109]Barker, T., Qureshi, M. S. and Kohler, J., The costs of greenhouse-gas mitigation with induced technological change:A Meta-Analysis of estimates in the literature [R]. Cambridge:Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research,2006.
[110]Barrett, S., Creating incentives for cooperation:strategic choices [A]. In:Kaul, I., Conceicao, P., Le Goulven, K. and Mendoza, R. U., Providing Global Public Goods:Managing Globalization [M]. New York:Oxford University Press,2003: 308-328.
[111]Barrett, S., Environment & statecraft:the strategy of environmental treaty making [M]. Oxford:Oxford University Press,2005.
[112]Benitez, P. C., McCallum, I., Obersteiner, M. and Yamagata, Y., Global potential for carbon sequestration:Geographical distribution, country risk and policy implications [J]. Ecological Economics,2007,60(3):572-583.
[113]Betts, R. A., Integrated approaches to climate-crop modelling:needs and challenges [J]. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society,2005, 360(1463):2049-2065.
[114]Brenton, T., The Greening of Machiavelli:the evolution of international environmental politics [M]. London:Earthscan Publications Ltd,1994.
[115]Brown, C. and Lall, U., Water and economic development:The role of variability and a framework for resilience [R]. New York:International Research Institute for Climate Prediction,2006.
[116]Capoor, K. and Ambrosi, P., State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2009 [R]. Washington, D.C.:World Bank,2009.
[117]Carraro, C., Beyond Kyoto:a game-theoretic perspective [R]. Paris:OECD, 1998.
[118]Christy, J. R., Norris, W. B. and McNider, R. T., Surface temperature variations in East Africa and possible causes [J]. Journal of Climate,2009, 22(12):3342-3356.
[119]CIA, The World Factbook [R]. Virginia:Central Intelligence Agency,2009.
[120]Commission of the European Community, Europeans Want Policy Makers to Consider the Environment as Important as Economic and Social Policies [R]. Brussels:Commission of the European Community,2005.
[121]De, U. S., Dube, R. K. and Rao, G. S. P., Extreme weather events over India in the last 100 years [J]. Journal of the Indian Geophysical Union,2005, 9(3):173-187.
[122]Dewar, H., Human Activity and the Environment:Annual Statistics 2007 and 2008 [R]. Ottawa:Statistics Canada,2008.
[123]EIA, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2007 [R]. Washington, D.C.:Energy Information Administration,2008.
[124]Emanuel, K., Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years [J]. Nature,2005,436:686-688.
[125]EU, EU Actions Against Climate Change:Leading Global Action to 2020 and Beyond [R]. Luxembourg:European Union,2007.
[126]Eurostat, External and intra-EU trade-a statistical yearbook:Data 1958-2008 [M]. Luxembourg:Publications Office of the European Union,2009.
[127]FAO, Water at a glance [R]. Rome:Food and Agriculture Organization,2005.
[128]Friedlingstein, P., Cox, P., Betts, R. and et al, Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis:results from C4MIP model intercomparison [J]. Journal of Climate, 2006,19(14):3337-3353.
[129]Galeotti, M. and Lanza, A., Richer and cleaner? A study on carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries [R]. Milan:Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, 1999.
[130]Grey, D. and Sadof, C., Water for growth and development [R]. Thematic documents of the IV World Water Forum, Mexico:Comision Nacional del Agua, 2006.
[131]Grieg-Gran, M., The Cost of Avoiding Deforestation [R]. London: Internantional Institute for Environment and Development,2006.
[132]Grubb, M., Carraro, C. and Schellnhuber, J., Technological change for atmospheric stabilisation:introductory overview to the Innovation Modelling Comparison Project [J]. Energy Journal,2006(Endogenous Technological Change and the Economics of Atmospheric Stabilisation Special Issue).
[133]Hamilton, J. M., Maddison, D. J. and Tol, R. S. J., Climate change and international tourism:a simulation study [J]. Global Environmental Change, 2005,15(3):253-266.
[134]Hannah, L., Electricity before nationalisation:A study of the development of the electricity supply industry in Britain to 1948 [M]. Baltimore and London:The Johns Hopkins University Press,1979.
[135]Hardin, G., The Tragedy of the Commons [J]. Science,1968,162:1243-1248.
[136]Helm, D., Climate-change policy:why has so little been achieved? [J]. Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2008,24(2):211-238.
[137]Henry, C., Decision Making Under Scientific, Political and Economic Uncertainty [C]. Chaire Developpement Durable, Paris,2006.
[138]Hepburn, C. and Stern, N., A new global deal on climate change [J]. Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2008,24(2):259-279.
[139]Hitz, S. and Smith, J., Estimating global impacts from climate change [A]. In: Morlot, J. C. and Agrawala, S., The benefits of climate change policies [M]. Paris: OECD,2004:31-82.
[140]Hope, C., Integrated assessment models [A]. In:Helm, D., Climate-change policy [M]. Oxford:Oxford University Press,2005:77-98.
[141]Hope, C., The marginal impact of CO2 from PAGE2002:an integrated assessment model incorporating the IPCC's five reasons for concern [J]. Integrated Assessment Journal,2006,6(1):19-56.
[142]Hope, C., Discount rates, equity weights and the social cost of carbon [J]. Energy Economics,2008,30(3):1011-1019.
[143]House, T. W., An Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol [R]. Washington, D.C.:The White House,2008.
[144]IEA, Experience curves for energy technology policy [R]. Paris: OECD/International Energy Agency,2000.
[145]IEA, Energy technology perspectives:scenarios and strategies to 2050 [R]. Paris: OECD/International Energy Agency,2006.
[146]IEA, World Energy Outlook 2007 [R]. Paris:International Energy Agency, 2007.
[147]IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008 [R]. Paris:OECD/International Energy Agency,2008a.
[148]IEA, Worldwide trends in energy use and efficiency:key insight from IEA indicator analysis [R]. Paris:International Energy Agency,2008b.
[149]IEA, World Energy Outlook 2009 [R]. Paris:OECD/International Energy Agency,2009.
[150]ILO, Global Employment Trends Model [R]. Geneva:International Labour Office,2005.
[151]IMF, Fund assistance for countries facing exogenous shocks [R]. Washington, D.C.:International Monetary Fund,2003.
[152]Ionescu, C., Klein, R. J. T., Hinkel, J. and et al, Towards a formal framework of vulnerability to climate change [J]. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 2009,14(1):1-16.
[153]IPCC, Climate Change 2001:Synthesis Report [R]. Geneva:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,2001.
[154]IPCC, Kyoto Protocol Status and Ratification [EB/OL]. http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/kyoto_protocol/application/pdf/kpstat s.pdf,2006-07-10.
[155]IPCC, Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report [R]. Geneva:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,2007.
[156]Jaffe, A. B., Newell, R. G. and Stavins, R. N., Technological Change and the Environment [A]. In:Maler, K. G. and Vincent, J., The Handbook of Environmental Economics [M], North Holland,2003.
[157]Kaya, Y., Impact of Carbon Dioxide Emission Control on GNP Growth: Interpretation of Proposed Scenarios [R]. Paper presented to the IPCC Energy and Industry Subgroup, Paris:Response Strategies Working Group,1990.
[158]Keohane, R. O., After hegemony:cooperation and discord in the world political economy [M]. Princeton:Princeton University Press,1984.
[159]Kerr, R. A., What happened to global warming? Scientists say just wait a bit [J]. Science,2009,326(5949):28-29.
[160]Keynes, J. M., The general theory of interest, employment and money [M]. London:Macmillan,1936.
[161]Klibanoff, P., Marinacci, M. and Mukerji, S., A smooth model of decision-making under ambiguity [J]. Econometrica,2005,73:1849-1892.
[162]Kumar, K. K., Rajagopalan, B., Hoerling, M. and et al, Unravelling the mystery of indian monsoon failure during the El Nino [J]. Science,2006,314:115-119.
[163]Lardner, P., Britain Slams OPEC Bid for Climate Compensation [J]. Reuters, 1998,12(13).
[164]Mahan, A. T., The influence of sea power upon history 1660-1783 [M]. Boston: Dover Publications,1890.
[165]McCain, R. A., Game Theory:a non-technical introduction to the analysis of strategy [M]. London:Thomson Learning,2004.
[166]McKibbin, W. J. and Wilcoxen, P. J., The role of economics in climate change policy [J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives,2002,16(2):107-129.
[167]Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A. and Williams, L., The distributional impact of climate change on rich and poor countries [J]. Environment and Development Economics,2006,11(2):159-178.
[168]Mendelsohn, R. O., Morrison, W. N., Schlesinger, M. E. and Andronova, N. G., Country-specific market impacts of climate change [J]. Climatic Change,1998, 45(3-4):553-569.
[169]Milner, H., International theories of cooperation among nations:strengths and weaknesses [J]. World Politics,1992,44(3):466-496.
[170]Morgenthau, H. J., The Mainsprings of American Foreign Policy:The National Interest vs Moral Abstractions [J]. The American Political Science Review,1950, 44(4):833-854.
[171]Muir-Wood, R., Miller, S. and Boissonade, A., The search for trends in a global catalogue of normalized weather-related catastrophe losses [R]. London:Risk Management Solutions,2006.
[172]Mundial, B., World development report 2008:Agriculture for development [R]. Washington, D.C.:World Bank,2008.
[173]Munich Re Group, Annual review:natural catastrophes 2003 [R]. Munich: Munich Re Group,2004.
[174]Munich Re Group, Annual review:natural catastrophes 2005 [R]. Munich: Munich Re Group,2006.
[175]Munich Re Group, World Map of Natural Hazards 2009 [R]. Munich:Munich Re Group,2009.
[176]Myers, N. and Kent, J., Environmental exodus:an emergent crisis in the global arena [R]. Washington, D.C.:The Climate Institute,1995.
[177]Nash, J., Non-cooperative games [J]. The Annals of Mathematics,1951, 54(2):286-295.
[178]Nicholls, R. J. and Klein, R. J., Climate change and coastal management on Europe's coast [R]. Potsdam:Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 2003.
[179]Noorbakhsh, F., A modified Human Development Index [J]. World Development,1998,26(3):517-528.
[180]Nordhaus, W. D., A review of the Stern Review on the economics of climate change [J]. Journal of Economic Literature,2007,45(9):686-702.
[181]Nordhaus, W. D. and Boyer, J. G., Warming the world:economic models of global warmings [M]. Cambridge:MIT Press,2000.
[182]Nordhaus, W. D. and Boyer, J. G., Warming the world:the economics of the greenhouse effect [M]. Cambridge:MIT Press,2000.
[183]North, D. C., Understanding the process of economic change [M]. Princeton: Princeton University Press,2004.
[184]NRCan, Canada's Energy Outlook:The Reference Case 2006 [R]. Ottawa: Natural Resources Canada,2006.
[185]Patz, J. A., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Holloway, T. and Foley, J. A., Impact of regional climate change on human health [J]. Nature,2005,438(7066):310—317.
[186]Pfeffer, W. T., Harper, J. T. and O'Neel, S., Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st-Century sea-Level rise [J]. Science,2008,321:1340-1343.
[187]Phylipsen, G. J. M., Bode, J. W., Blok, K., Merkus, H. and Metz, B., A Triptych sectoral approach to burden differentiation; GHG emissions in the European bubble [J]. Energy Policy,1998,26(12):929-943.
[188]Qabazard, H. M., Annual Statistical Bulletin 2008 [R]. Vienna:OPEC,2009.
[189]Rauch, E., Climate Change:A Relevant Risk of Change [R]. Munich:Munich Re Group,2007.
[190]Saikku, L. and Soimakallio, S., Top-down approaches for sharing GHG emission reductions:uncertainties and sensitivities in the 27 European Union Member States [J]. Environmental Science & Policy,2008,11(8):723-734.
[191]Samuelson, P., The pure theory of public expenditure [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,1954,36(4):387-389.
[192]Schellnhuber, H. J., Avoiding dangerous climate change [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2006.
[193]Schlenker, W. and Roberts, M. J., Nonlinear effects of weather on corn yields [J]. Review of Agricultural Economics,2006,28(3):391-398.
[194]Schmalensee, R., Stoker, T. M. and Judson, R. A., World carbon dioxide emissions:1950-2050 [J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1998, 80(1):15-27.
[195]Schmidt, J., Helme, N., Lee, J. and Houdashelt, M., Sector-based approach to the post-2012 climate change policy architecture [J]. Climate Policy,2008 8(5):494-515.
[196]Schneider, S. H. and Lane, J., An overview of'dangerous'climate change [A], In: Schellnhuber, H. J., Avoiding dangerous climate change [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2006:7-24.
[197]Selden, T. M., Environmental quality and development:Is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution emissions? [J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1994,27(2):147-162.
[198]Sheehan, P., The new global growth path:implications for climate change analysis and policy [J]. Climatic Change,2008,91(3-4):211-231.
[199]Sidsnet, Who are the SIDS? [EB/OL]. http://www.sidsnet.org/2.html, 2009-12-10.
[200]Smith, P., Martino, D., Cai, Z. and et al, Greenhouse-gas mitigation in agriculture [J]. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society,2008, 363(1492):789-813.
[201]Solow, R. M., Intergenerational equity and exhaustible resources [J]. The Review of Economic Studies,1974,41 (Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources):29-45.
[202]Stern, N., Stern Review:The economics of climate change [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2007.
[203]Tester, J. W. and et al, Sustainable energy:choosing among options [M]. Cambridge:MIT Press,2005.
[204]Thomas, C. D., Cameron, A., Green, R. E. and et al, Extinction risk from climate change [J]. Nature,2004,427(6970):145-148.
[205]Tol, R. S. J., Estimates of the damage costs of climate change-part II:dynamic estimates [J]. Environmental and Resource Economics,2002,21:135-160.
[206]Tol, R. S. J., Downing, T. E., Kuik, O. J. and Smith, J. B., Distributional aspects of climate change impacts [J]. Global Environmental Change,2004, 14(3):259-272.
[207]Trenberth, K., Uncertainty in hurricanes and global warming [J]. Science,2005, 308:1753-1754.
[208]UNDP, Review and assessment [R]. The Human Development Report 1990, New York:United Nations Development Programme,1990.
[209]UNDP, International cooperation at a crossroads:aid, trade and security in an unequal world [R]. The Human Development Report 2005, New York:United Nations Development Programme,2005.
[210]UNDP, Beyond scarcity:power, poverty and the global water crisis [R]. The Human Development Report 2006, New York:United Nations Development Programme,2006.
[211]UNDP, Fighting climate change:Human solidarity in a divided world [R]. The Human Development Report 2007/2008, New York:United Nations Development Programme,2007.
[212]UNDP, Overcoming barriers:human mobility and development [R]. The Human Development Report 2009, New York:United Nations Development Programme, 2009.
[213]UNEP-WCMC, Biodiversity and poverty reduction:the importance of biodiversity for ecosystem services [R]. Cambridge:UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre,2006.
[214]UN-HABITAT, State of the world's cities 2008/2009:Harmonious cities [R]. Nairobi:United Nations Human Settlements Programme,2008.
[215]van Aalst, M. K., The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters [J]. Disasters,2006,30(1):5-18.
[216]van Vuuren, D. P., Weyant, J. P. and Chesnaye, F., Multi-gas scenarios to stabilize radiative forcing [J]. Energy Economics,2006,28(1):102-120.
[217]Waltz, K., Theory of international politics [M]. Reading:Addison-Wesley, 1979.
[218]Warren, R., Impacts of global climate change at different annual mean global temperature increases [A]. In:Schellnhuber, H. J., Avoiding dangerous climate change [M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2006.
[219]Warren, R., Hope, C., Mastrandrea, M., Tol, R., Adger, N. and Lorenzoni, I., Spotlighting Impacts Functions in Integrated Assessment Models [R]. Norwich: Tyndall Centre,2006.
[220]Weber, C. L. and Peters, G. P., Climate change policy and international trade: policy considerations in the US [J]. Energy Policy,2009,37(2):432-440.
[221]Webster, M., Forest, C., Reilly, J. and al, e., Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response [J]. Climatic Change,2003,61(3):295-320.
[222]Wendt, A., Social theory of international politics [M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1999.
[223]Wiens, J. A., Stralberga, D., Jongsomjit, D. and al, e., Niches, models, and climate change:Assessing the assumptions and uncertainties [J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2009, 106(suppl 2):19729-19736.
[224]World Bank, World Development Indicators 2009 [M]. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Publications,2009.
[225]WRI, CAIT:greenhouse gas sources & methods [R]. Washington, D.C.:World Resources Institute,2009.
[2]戴星翼.环境资源：现代文明的基石[M].北京：当代中国出版社,1997.
[3]戴星翼.走向绿色的发展[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,1998.
[4]戴星翼.以减物质化应对上海生活垃圾的挑战[A].见：尹继佐.2003年上海资源环境蓝皮书[M].上海：上海社会科学院出版社,2002：168-201.
[5]戴星翼.循环的动力[A].见：张锦高.资源环境经济学进展(1)[M].湖北：湖北人民出版社,2004.
[6]戴星翼,俞厚未,董梅.生态服务的价值实现[M].北京：科学出版社,2005.
[7]Chow,K.K超越巴厘岛会议的技术转让与发展[A].见：刘燕华.气候变化与科技创新[M].北京：科学技术出版社,2009：265-266.
[8]Graedel,T.E.,Allenby,B.R产业生态学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2004.
[9]Kalaydjian,F..CO2的封存——挑战、关键技术与欧洲案例[A].见：刘燕华.气候变化与科技创新[M].北京：科学技术出版社,2009：265-266.
[10]Kasper,W解决全球气候变暖可以很人性化[N],华尔街日报中文版,2006,1(11)
[11]Majumdar,B..IPCC主席：哥本哈根谈判让“基础四国”影响力增强[N],路透社,2009,12(23)
[12]WWEA2008年世界风电发展情况综述[R].Bonn：WorldWindEnergyAssociation,2009.
[13]艾轶伦.清洁发展机制下国际经济合作问题研究[D].长春：吉林大学,2008.
[14]曹金平.岛礁：不沉的航空母舰[J].科技与国力,2002(1)：114-115.
[15]曹世功.韩国环保支出居世界领先水平[N].经济日报,2008,2(19)：08.
[16]陈洪波,蒋天文.温室气体减排的国际政治博弈[J].世界经济与政治,2005(10)：58-63.
[17]陈英姿,李雨潼.低碳经济与我国区域能源利用研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2009,49(2)：66-73.
[18]崔大鹏.国际气候合作的政治经济学分析[M].北京：商务印书馆,2003.
[19]丁仲礼,段晓男,葛全胜,张志强.国际温室气体减排方案评估及中国长期排放权讨论[J].中国科学,2009,39(12)：1659-1671.
[20]付允,马永欢,刘怡君,牛文元.低碳经济的发展模式研究[J].中国人口·资 源与环境,2008,18(3)：14-19.
[21]国际新能源网.欧佩克警告说生物燃料将推升油价[EB/OL].http: //www.in-en.com/newenergy/html/newenergy-200720070608100376.html, 2007-06-08.
[22]国家气候变化对策协调小组办公室.全球气候变化——人类面临的挑战[M].北京：商务印书馆,2005.
[23]韩小妮.“全球变暖说”越来越不可信[N].新闻晚报,2010,3(19)：A1-07.
[24]黄永明.气候变化：大趋势中的不确定性[N].南方周末,2010,1(14)E26.
[25]姜波克.均衡汇率理论和政策的新框架[J].中国社会科学,2006(1)：15-22.
[26]姜波克.均衡汇率理论和政策新框架的新探索——对基本模型的再解释[J].东南学术,2007a(2)：96-102.
[27]姜波克.均衡汇率理论和政策新框架的再探索[J].复旦学报(社会科学版),2007b(2)：41-49.
[28]姜波克.国际金融新编(第四版)[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2008.
[29]姜克隽,胡秀莲,庄幸,刘强.中国2050年低碳情景和低碳发展之路[J].中外能源,2009,14(6)：1-7.
[30]金亨真.西方国际关系理论中新现实主义和新自由主义的国际合作论[J].国际论坛,2004,6(5)：1-7.
[31]金乐琴,刘瑞.低碳经济与中国发展模式转型[J].经济问题探索,2009(1)：84-87.
[32]科技部.日本2020年减排11%的年温室气体[EB/OL].http: //www.most.gov.cn/gnwkjdt/200803/t20080327_60139.htm,2008-03-28.
[33]李格琴.西方国际合作理论研究述评[J].山东社会科学,2008(7)：134-139.
[34]李海涛,许学工,刘文政.国际碳减排活动中的利益博弈和中国策略的思考[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(5)：93-97.
[35]李虎军.继WTO之后最重要的一场国际谈判[N].南方周末,2007,2(15)A2.
[36]李梅影.阿尔斯通在华夺6000万欧元大单[N].国际金融报,2005,1(24)：04.
[37]李丕东.中国能源环境政策的一般均衡分析[D].厦门：厦门大学,2008.
[38]李玉文,徐中民,王勇,焦文献.环境库兹涅茨曲线研究进展[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2005,15(5)：7-14.
[39]联合国.联合国气候变化框架公约[Z].政府间谈判委员会(INC),1992.
[40]联合国环境规划署.全球环境展望2006[R].内罗毕：联合国环境规划署,2006.
[41]联合国环境规划署.UNEP年鉴2008[R].内罗毕：联合国环境规划署,2008.
[42]联合国环境规划署.UNEP年鉴2009[R].内罗毕：联合国环境规划署,2009.
[43]刘强.发达能源供应及工业部门减排政策[R].北京：国家发改委能源研究所,2005.
[44]刘晓雪.地球“降温大会”今日火热揭幕[N].法制晚报,2009,12(7)A18.
[45]刘洋.全球太阳能市场正在洗牌[N].中国能源报,2009,9(7)：16.
[46]潘家华.后京都国际气候协定的谈判趋势与对策思考[J].气候变化研究进展,2005,1(1)：10-15.
[47]潘家华.哥本哈根之后的气候走向[J].外交评论,2009(6)：1-4.
[48]潘家华,郑艳.基于人际公平的碳排放概念及其理论含义[J].世界经济与政治,2009(10)：6-17.
[49]潘家华,朱仙丽.人文发展的基本需要分析及其在国际气候制度设计中的应用[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(6)：23-32.
[50]潘家华,庄贵阳,陈迎.减缓气候变化的经济分析[M].北京：气象出版社,2003.
[51]潘家华,庄贵阳,陈迎,吴向阳.英国低碳发展的激励措施及其借鉴[J].科学新闻,2006(24)：14-15.
[52]邱寿丰.循环经济规划的生态效率方法及应用——以上海为例[D].上海：同济大学,2007.
[53]任力.国外发展低碳经济的政策及启示[J].发展研究,2009(2)：23-27.
[54]任力.低碳经济与中国经济可持续发展[J].社会科学家,2009(2)：47-50.
[55]师琰.OPEC秘书长巴德里：发达国家应率先减排[N].21世纪经济报道,2009,12(16)：03.
[56]宋秀琚.美国国际合作理论研究综述[J].国外社会科学,2005(3)：22-28.
[57]谭丹,黄贤金.我国东、中、西部地区经济发展与碳排放的关联分析及比较[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(3)：54-57.
[58]王璟珉.全球气候变化问题的认知比较研究[D].青岛：中国海洋大学,2007.
[59]王君.大型发电设备制造企业技术引进[J].电力设备市场,2008(4)113-115.
[60]王艳芬.澳大利亚与气候变化国际公约[J].徐州师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2004,30(4)：113-116.
[61]王宇奇,关超,张星谕.我国电站设备企业国际竞争力比较研究[J].边疆经济与文化,2009(11)：20-22.
[62]吴敬琏.中国增长模式抉择[M].上海：远东出版社,2006.
[63]谢识予.经济博弈论[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,1997.
[64]徐锭明,赖江南.知行结合,引领变革——英国低碳发展考察报告[J].能源政策研究,2008(4)：4-8.
[65]徐华清.应对气候变化的能源战略与对策[J].环境保护,2007(6)：47-49.
[66]徐华清等.减缓气候变化的最新科学认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(4)：187-194.
[67]杨传敏.小岛国呼救：温控≤1.5℃[N].南方都市报,2009,12(11)：A32.
[68]杨建龙.加快中国金融体制改革推动RE&EE投融资体系发展[A].见：2050中国能源和碳排放研究课题组.2050中国能源和碳排放报告[M].北京：科学出版社,2009：301-370.
[69]杨教,丁峰.图瓦卢灭顶之灾“讣告”[J].科技文萃,2002(2)：26-28.
[70]杨筱亦.全球变暖和自然灾害没关系了?[N].成都商报,2010,1(25)：15.
[71]姚强.技术转让的困境与能源领域的案例[A].见：刘燕华.气候变化与科技创新[M].北京：科学技术出版社,2009：265-266.
[72]俞正梁.当代国际关系学导论[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,1996.
[73]袁瑛.谁绑架了科学?IPCC遭遇史上最强信任危机[N].南方周末,2010,2(4)：C13.
[74]曾忠禄,张冬梅.不确定环境下解读未来的方法：情景分析法[J].情报杂志,2005(5)：14-16.
[75]张海滨.美国关于气候变化对国家安全影响的研究述评[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,5(3)：145-150.
[76]张坤民.低碳世界中的中国：地位、挑战与战略[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(3)：1-7.
[77]张月鸿等.气候变化风险的新型分类[J].地理研究,2008,27(4)：763-774.
[78]赵学亮.“小岛国联盟”提议发达国家减排45%[EB/0L].环球网http：//world.huanqiu.com/roll/2009-12/658583.html,2009-12-12.
[79]赵宗慈.气候变化的科学不确定性与挑战[A].见：刘燕华.气候变化与科技创新[M].北京：科学技术出版社,2009：265-266.
[80]中国经济信息网.2008中国行业年度报告系列之能源[EB/0L].http：//www.cei.gov.cn/,2010-01-20.
[81]中国-欧盟清洁发展机制促进项目.中国CDM项目中的技术转让[R].北京：中国-欧盟清洁发展机制促进项目,2009.
[82]钟海玲,沈永平.2007年全球气候变化回顾[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(1)：53-56.
[83]中华人民共和国国家统计局.2008年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].http: //www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/ndtjgb/qgndtjgb/t20090226_402540710.htm, 2009-02-26.
[84]中新网.海地地震所致经济损失粗估可能达10亿美元[EB/0L].中国新闻网http: //www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/gj-bm/news/2010/01-23/2088003.shtml, 2010-01-23.
[85]周剑,何建坤.欧盟气候变化政策及其经济影响[J].现代国际关系,2009(2)：38-43.
[86]朱剑红.应对气候变化,中国积极负责(在国新办新闻发布会上)[N].人民日报,2009,11(27)：第二版.
[87]朱松丽.欧盟：推进气候变化应对进程的重要角色[J].世界环境,2009(1)：16-18.
[88]庄贵阳.中国经济低碳发展的途径与潜力分析[J].国际技术经济研究,2005,8(3)：8-12.
[89]庄贵阳.低碳经济：气候变化背景下中国的发展之路[M].北京：气象出版社,2007.
[90]庄贵阳.后京都时代国际气候治理与中国的战略选择[J].世界经济与政治,2008(8)：6-16.
[91]庄贵阳.中国发展低碳经济的困难与障碍分析[J].江西社会科学,2009(7)：20-26.
[92]庄贵阳.哥本哈根气候博弈与中国角色的再认识[J].外交评论,2009(6)13-21.
[93]庄贵阳,陈迎.试析国际气候谈判中的国家集团及其影响[J].太平洋学报,2001(2)：72-78.
[94]庄贵阳,陈迎.国际气候制度与中国[M].北京：世界知识出版社,2005.
[95]庄贵阳,朱仙丽,赵行姝.全球环境与气候治理[M].杭州：浙江人民出版社,2009.
[96]Ackerman, F., E.A., S., C., H. and S., A., Did the Stern Review underestimate US andglobal climate damages?[J]. Energy Policy,2009,37(4):2717-2721.
[97]Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J., Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle [J]. Nature,2002,419(6903):224-232.
[98]Allen, M. R., Stott, P. A., Mitchell, J. F. B. and al, e., Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change [J]. Nature,2000, 407(6804):617-620.
[99]Anand, S. and Sen, A. K., Human development and economic sustainability [J]. World Development,2000,28(12):2029-2049.
[100]Ang, B. W., Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:which is the preferred method? [J]. Energy Policy,2004,32(9):1131-1139.
[101]Anthoff, D., Hepburnd, C. and Tol, R. S. J., Equity weighting and the marginal damage costs of climate change [J]. Ecological Economics,2009,68(3):836-849.
[102]Anthoff, D., Nicholls, R., Tol, R. S. J. and Vafeidis, A. T., Global and regional exposure to large rises in sea-level [R]. Norwich:Tyndall Centre,2006.
[103]Arnell, N. W., Climate change and water resources [A]. In:Schellnhuber, H. J., Avoiding dangerous climate change [M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2006:167-176.
[104]Ascher, W., Forecasting:An appraisal for policy-makers and planners [M]. Baltimore:Johns Hopkins University Press,1978.
[105]Babiker, M. H., Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage [J]. Journal of International Economics,2005,65(2):421-445.
[106]Babiker, M. H., Reilly, J., Mayer, J. M. and et al, The emissions prediction and policy analysis (EPPA) model:revisions, sensitivities and comparisons of results [M]. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,2001.
[107]Baer, P. and Mastrandrea, M., High Stakes:Designing emissions pathways to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change [R]. London:Institute for Public Policy Research,2006.
[108]Baettig, M. B., Wild, M. and Imboden, D. M., A climate change index:Where climate change may be most prominent in the 21st century [J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2007,34(1):1-6.
[109]Barker, T., Qureshi, M. S. and Kohler, J., The costs of greenhouse-gas mitigation with induced technological change:A Meta-Analysis of estimates in the literature [R]. Cambridge:Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research,2006.
[110]Barrett, S., Creating incentives for cooperation:strategic choices [A]. In:Kaul, I., Conceicao, P., Le Goulven, K. and Mendoza, R. U., Providing Global Public Goods:Managing Globalization [M]. New York:Oxford University Press,2003: 308-328.
[111]Barrett, S., Environment & statecraft:the strategy of environmental treaty making [M]. Oxford:Oxford University Press,2005.
[112]Benitez, P. C., McCallum, I., Obersteiner, M. and Yamagata, Y., Global potential for carbon sequestration:Geographical distribution, country risk and policy implications [J]. Ecological Economics,2007,60(3):572-583.
[113]Betts, R. A., Integrated approaches to climate-crop modelling:needs and challenges [J]. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society,2005, 360(1463):2049-2065.
[114]Brenton, T., The Greening of Machiavelli:the evolution of international environmental politics [M]. London:Earthscan Publications Ltd,1994.
[115]Brown, C. and Lall, U., Water and economic development:The role of variability and a framework for resilience [R]. New York:International Research Institute for Climate Prediction,2006.
[116]Capoor, K. and Ambrosi, P., State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2009 [R]. Washington, D.C.:World Bank,2009.
[117]Carraro, C., Beyond Kyoto:a game-theoretic perspective [R]. Paris:OECD, 1998.
[118]Christy, J. R., Norris, W. B. and McNider, R. T., Surface temperature variations in East Africa and possible causes [J]. Journal of Climate,2009, 22(12):3342-3356.
[119]CIA, The World Factbook [R]. Virginia:Central Intelligence Agency,2009.
[120]Commission of the European Community, Europeans Want Policy Makers to Consider the Environment as Important as Economic and Social Policies [R]. Brussels:Commission of the European Community,2005.
[121]De, U. S., Dube, R. K. and Rao, G. S. P., Extreme weather events over India in the last 100 years [J]. Journal of the Indian Geophysical Union,2005, 9(3):173-187.
[122]Dewar, H., Human Activity and the Environment:Annual Statistics 2007 and 2008 [R]. Ottawa:Statistics Canada,2008.
[123]EIA, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2007 [R]. Washington, D.C.:Energy Information Administration,2008.
[124]Emanuel, K., Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years [J]. Nature,2005,436:686-688.
[125]EU, EU Actions Against Climate Change:Leading Global Action to 2020 and Beyond [R]. Luxembourg:European Union,2007.
[126]Eurostat, External and intra-EU trade-a statistical yearbook:Data 1958-2008 [M]. Luxembourg:Publications Office of the European Union,2009.
[127]FAO, Water at a glance [R]. Rome:Food and Agriculture Organization,2005.
[128]Friedlingstein, P., Cox, P., Betts, R. and et al, Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis:results from C4MIP model intercomparison [J]. Journal of Climate, 2006,19(14):3337-3353.
[129]Galeotti, M. and Lanza, A., Richer and cleaner? A study on carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries [R]. Milan:Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, 1999.
[130]Grey, D. and Sadof, C., Water for growth and development [R]. Thematic documents of the IV World Water Forum, Mexico:Comision Nacional del Agua, 2006.
[131]Grieg-Gran, M., The Cost of Avoiding Deforestation [R]. London: Internantional Institute for Environment and Development,2006.
[132]Grubb, M., Carraro, C. and Schellnhuber, J., Technological change for atmospheric stabilisation:introductory overview to the Innovation Modelling Comparison Project [J]. Energy Journal,2006(Endogenous Technological Change and the Economics of Atmospheric Stabilisation Special Issue).
[133]Hamilton, J. M., Maddison, D. J. and Tol, R. S. J., Climate change and international tourism:a simulation study [J]. Global Environmental Change, 2005,15(3):253-266.
[134]Hannah, L., Electricity before nationalisation:A study of the development of the electricity supply industry in Britain to 1948 [M]. Baltimore and London:The Johns Hopkins University Press,1979.
[135]Hardin, G., The Tragedy of the Commons [J]. Science,1968,162:1243-1248.
[136]Helm, D., Climate-change policy:why has so little been achieved? [J]. Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2008,24(2):211-238.
[137]Henry, C., Decision Making Under Scientific, Political and Economic Uncertainty [C]. Chaire Developpement Durable, Paris,2006.
[138]Hepburn, C. and Stern, N., A new global deal on climate change [J]. Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2008,24(2):259-279.
[139]Hitz, S. and Smith, J., Estimating global impacts from climate change [A]. In: Morlot, J. C. and Agrawala, S., The benefits of climate change policies [M]. Paris: OECD,2004:31-82.
[140]Hope, C., Integrated assessment models [A]. In:Helm, D., Climate-change policy [M]. Oxford:Oxford University Press,2005:77-98.
[141]Hope, C., The marginal impact of CO2 from PAGE2002:an integrated assessment model incorporating the IPCC's five reasons for concern [J]. Integrated Assessment Journal,2006,6(1):19-56.
[142]Hope, C., Discount rates, equity weights and the social cost of carbon [J]. Energy Economics,2008,30(3):1011-1019.
[143]House, T. W., An Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol [R]. Washington, D.C.:The White House,2008.
[144]IEA, Experience curves for energy technology policy [R]. Paris: OECD/International Energy Agency,2000.
[145]IEA, Energy technology perspectives:scenarios and strategies to 2050 [R]. Paris: OECD/International Energy Agency,2006.
[146]IEA, World Energy Outlook 2007 [R]. Paris:International Energy Agency, 2007.
[147]IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008 [R]. Paris:OECD/International Energy Agency,2008a.
[148]IEA, Worldwide trends in energy use and efficiency:key insight from IEA indicator analysis [R]. Paris:International Energy Agency,2008b.
[149]IEA, World Energy Outlook 2009 [R]. Paris:OECD/International Energy Agency,2009.
[150]ILO, Global Employment Trends Model [R]. Geneva:International Labour Office,2005.
[151]IMF, Fund assistance for countries facing exogenous shocks [R]. Washington, D.C.:International Monetary Fund,2003.
[152]Ionescu, C., Klein, R. J. T., Hinkel, J. and et al, Towards a formal framework of vulnerability to climate change [J]. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 2009,14(1):1-16.
[153]IPCC, Climate Change 2001:Synthesis Report [R]. Geneva:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,2001.
[154]IPCC, Kyoto Protocol Status and Ratification [EB/OL]. http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/kyoto_protocol/application/pdf/kpstat s.pdf,2006-07-10.
[155]IPCC, Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report [R]. Geneva:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,2007.
[156]Jaffe, A. B., Newell, R. G. and Stavins, R. N., Technological Change and the Environment [A]. In:Maler, K. G. and Vincent, J., The Handbook of Environmental Economics [M], North Holland,2003.
[157]Kaya, Y., Impact of Carbon Dioxide Emission Control on GNP Growth: Interpretation of Proposed Scenarios [R]. Paper presented to the IPCC Energy and Industry Subgroup, Paris:Response Strategies Working Group,1990.
[158]Keohane, R. O., After hegemony:cooperation and discord in the world political economy [M]. Princeton:Princeton University Press,1984.
[159]Kerr, R. A., What happened to global warming? Scientists say just wait a bit [J]. Science,2009,326(5949):28-29.
[160]Keynes, J. M., The general theory of interest, employment and money [M]. London:Macmillan,1936.
[161]Klibanoff, P., Marinacci, M. and Mukerji, S., A smooth model of decision-making under ambiguity [J]. Econometrica,2005,73:1849-1892.
[162]Kumar, K. K., Rajagopalan, B., Hoerling, M. and et al, Unravelling the mystery of indian monsoon failure during the El Nino [J]. Science,2006,314:115-119.
[163]Lardner, P., Britain Slams OPEC Bid for Climate Compensation [J]. Reuters, 1998,12(13).
[164]Mahan, A. T., The influence of sea power upon history 1660-1783 [M]. Boston: Dover Publications,1890.
[165]McCain, R. A., Game Theory:a non-technical introduction to the analysis of strategy [M]. London:Thomson Learning,2004.
[166]McKibbin, W. J. and Wilcoxen, P. J., The role of economics in climate change policy [J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives,2002,16(2):107-129.
[167]Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A. and Williams, L., The distributional impact of climate change on rich and poor countries [J]. Environment and Development Economics,2006,11(2):159-178.
[168]Mendelsohn, R. O., Morrison, W. N., Schlesinger, M. E. and Andronova, N. G., Country-specific market impacts of climate change [J]. Climatic Change,1998, 45(3-4):553-569.
[169]Milner, H., International theories of cooperation among nations:strengths and weaknesses [J]. World Politics,1992,44(3):466-496.
[170]Morgenthau, H. J., The Mainsprings of American Foreign Policy:The National Interest vs Moral Abstractions [J]. The American Political Science Review,1950, 44(4):833-854.
[171]Muir-Wood, R., Miller, S. and Boissonade, A., The search for trends in a global catalogue of normalized weather-related catastrophe losses [R]. London:Risk Management Solutions,2006.
[172]Mundial, B., World development report 2008:Agriculture for development [R]. Washington, D.C.:World Bank,2008.
[173]Munich Re Group, Annual review:natural catastrophes 2003 [R]. Munich: Munich Re Group,2004.
[174]Munich Re Group, Annual review:natural catastrophes 2005 [R]. Munich: Munich Re Group,2006.
[175]Munich Re Group, World Map of Natural Hazards 2009 [R]. Munich:Munich Re Group,2009.
[176]Myers, N. and Kent, J., Environmental exodus:an emergent crisis in the global arena [R]. Washington, D.C.:The Climate Institute,1995.
[177]Nash, J., Non-cooperative games [J]. The Annals of Mathematics,1951, 54(2):286-295.
[178]Nicholls, R. J. and Klein, R. J., Climate change and coastal management on Europe's coast [R]. Potsdam:Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 2003.
[179]Noorbakhsh, F., A modified Human Development Index [J]. World Development,1998,26(3):517-528.
[180]Nordhaus, W. D., A review of the Stern Review on the economics of climate change [J]. Journal of Economic Literature,2007,45(9):686-702.
[181]Nordhaus, W. D. and Boyer, J. G., Warming the world:economic models of global warmings [M]. Cambridge:MIT Press,2000.
[182]Nordhaus, W. D. and Boyer, J. G., Warming the world:the economics of the greenhouse effect [M]. Cambridge:MIT Press,2000.
[183]North, D. C., Understanding the process of economic change [M]. Princeton: Princeton University Press,2004.
[184]NRCan, Canada's Energy Outlook:The Reference Case 2006 [R]. Ottawa: Natural Resources Canada,2006.
[185]Patz, J. A., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Holloway, T. and Foley, J. A., Impact of regional climate change on human health [J]. Nature,2005,438(7066):310—317.
[186]Pfeffer, W. T., Harper, J. T. and O'Neel, S., Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st-Century sea-Level rise [J]. Science,2008,321:1340-1343.
[187]Phylipsen, G. J. M., Bode, J. W., Blok, K., Merkus, H. and Metz, B., A Triptych sectoral approach to burden differentiation; GHG emissions in the European bubble [J]. Energy Policy,1998,26(12):929-943.
[188]Qabazard, H. M., Annual Statistical Bulletin 2008 [R]. Vienna:OPEC,2009.
[189]Rauch, E., Climate Change:A Relevant Risk of Change [R]. Munich:Munich Re Group,2007.
[190]Saikku, L. and Soimakallio, S., Top-down approaches for sharing GHG emission reductions:uncertainties and sensitivities in the 27 European Union Member States [J]. Environmental Science & Policy,2008,11(8):723-734.
[191]Samuelson, P., The pure theory of public expenditure [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,1954,36(4):387-389.
[192]Schellnhuber, H. J., Avoiding dangerous climate change [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2006.
[193]Schlenker, W. and Roberts, M. J., Nonlinear effects of weather on corn yields [J]. Review of Agricultural Economics,2006,28(3):391-398.
[194]Schmalensee, R., Stoker, T. M. and Judson, R. A., World carbon dioxide emissions:1950-2050 [J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1998, 80(1):15-27.
[195]Schmidt, J., Helme, N., Lee, J. and Houdashelt, M., Sector-based approach to the post-2012 climate change policy architecture [J]. Climate Policy,2008 8(5):494-515.
[196]Schneider, S. H. and Lane, J., An overview of'dangerous'climate change [A], In: Schellnhuber, H. J., Avoiding dangerous climate change [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2006:7-24.
[197]Selden, T. M., Environmental quality and development:Is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution emissions? [J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1994,27(2):147-162.
[198]Sheehan, P., The new global growth path:implications for climate change analysis and policy [J]. Climatic Change,2008,91(3-4):211-231.
[199]Sidsnet, Who are the SIDS? [EB/OL]. http://www.sidsnet.org/2.html, 2009-12-10.
[200]Smith, P., Martino, D., Cai, Z. and et al, Greenhouse-gas mitigation in agriculture [J]. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society,2008, 363(1492):789-813.
[201]Solow, R. M., Intergenerational equity and exhaustible resources [J]. The Review of Economic Studies,1974,41 (Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources):29-45.
[202]Stern, N., Stern Review:The economics of climate change [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2007.
[203]Tester, J. W. and et al, Sustainable energy:choosing among options [M]. Cambridge:MIT Press,2005.
[204]Thomas, C. D., Cameron, A., Green, R. E. and et al, Extinction risk from climate change [J]. Nature,2004,427(6970):145-148.
[205]Tol, R. S. J., Estimates of the damage costs of climate change-part II:dynamic estimates [J]. Environmental and Resource Economics,2002,21:135-160.
[206]Tol, R. S. J., Downing, T. E., Kuik, O. J. and Smith, J. B., Distributional aspects of climate change impacts [J]. Global Environmental Change,2004, 14(3):259-272.
[207]Trenberth, K., Uncertainty in hurricanes and global warming [J]. Science,2005, 308:1753-1754.
[208]UNDP, Review and assessment [R]. The Human Development Report 1990, New York:United Nations Development Programme,1990.
[209]UNDP, International cooperation at a crossroads:aid, trade and security in an unequal world [R]. The Human Development Report 2005, New York:United Nations Development Programme,2005.
[210]UNDP, Beyond scarcity:power, poverty and the global water crisis [R]. The Human Development Report 2006, New York:United Nations Development Programme,2006.
[211]UNDP, Fighting climate change:Human solidarity in a divided world [R]. The Human Development Report 2007/2008, New York:United Nations Development Programme,2007.
[212]UNDP, Overcoming barriers:human mobility and development [R]. The Human Development Report 2009, New York:United Nations Development Programme, 2009.
[213]UNEP-WCMC, Biodiversity and poverty reduction:the importance of biodiversity for ecosystem services [R]. Cambridge:UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre,2006.
[214]UN-HABITAT, State of the world's cities 2008/2009:Harmonious cities [R]. Nairobi:United Nations Human Settlements Programme,2008.
[215]van Aalst, M. K., The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters [J]. Disasters,2006,30(1):5-18.
[216]van Vuuren, D. P., Weyant, J. P. and Chesnaye, F., Multi-gas scenarios to stabilize radiative forcing [J]. Energy Economics,2006,28(1):102-120.
[217]Waltz, K., Theory of international politics [M]. Reading:Addison-Wesley, 1979.
[218]Warren, R., Impacts of global climate change at different annual mean global temperature increases [A]. In:Schellnhuber, H. J., Avoiding dangerous climate change [M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2006.
[219]Warren, R., Hope, C., Mastrandrea, M., Tol, R., Adger, N. and Lorenzoni, I., Spotlighting Impacts Functions in Integrated Assessment Models [R]. Norwich: Tyndall Centre,2006.
[220]Weber, C. L. and Peters, G. P., Climate change policy and international trade: policy considerations in the US [J]. Energy Policy,2009,37(2):432-440.
[221]Webster, M., Forest, C., Reilly, J. and al, e., Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response [J]. Climatic Change,2003,61(3):295-320.
[222]Wendt, A., Social theory of international politics [M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1999.
[223]Wiens, J. A., Stralberga, D., Jongsomjit, D. and al, e., Niches, models, and climate change:Assessing the assumptions and uncertainties [J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2009, 106(suppl 2):19729-19736.
[224]World Bank, World Development Indicators 2009 [M]. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Publications,2009.
[225]WRI, CAIT:greenhouse gas sources & methods [R]. Washington, D.C.:World Resources Institute,2009.