尾矿坝非线性系统混沌与安全研究
摘要
尾矿坝安全是矿业领域的重要课题。本文在综述国内外尾矿坝研究成果的基础上，首次从非线性动力学及系统科学角度，对尾矿坝安全进行了深入的研究，目的在于揭示尾矿坝的安全机理，提出尾矿坝的安全方法。
浸润线演化是一项新的研究课题，本文采用关联维及Lyapunov指数两个混沌特征量对德兴铜矿2~#尾矿坝、银山铅锌矿尾矿坝浸润线实测数据进行分析。结果表明，浸润线演化是一个混沌系统，最大Lyapunov指数可以作为评价浸润线状态的指标。这项工作不仅揭示了浸润线的演化本质，还为监测数据的理论分析指出了一条新的途径。浸润线演化可以表现在时间和空间两个方向上。本文在单向耦合映象格子模型基础上，考虑了尾矿坝坡角因素，创造性地建立了浸润线耦合映象格子模型。根据浸润线的初值条件和边界条件，对浸润线耦合映象格子模型进行了非线性动力学分析。结果表明，浸润线演化存在复杂时空混沌行为，且受坡角影响明显。针对浸润线演化出现混沌状态，而混沌又会影响到尾矿坝安全这一问题，根据参数微扰法的思想，提出了一种控制混沌的方法，即对时间序列动力系统叠加一个周期振动，通过分析叠加前后时间序列的最大Lyapunov指数，来判别系统混沌特性的变化，进而实现控制混沌。应用该方法对银山铅锌矿尾矿坝浸润线演化进行了研究；结果表明，叠加周期振动可以抑制系统的混沌，因此，可以通过周期性的工程措施，来控制尾矿坝系统混沌。
透镜体是反映尾矿堆积坝沉积状况的一个关键指标，它影响着浸润线状态。文中采用盒维数方法，研究了七座尾矿坝的12个工程勘察剖面透镜体的分布规律。结果表明，透镜体分布存在分形特性，透镜体盒维数可以表征堆积坝沉积状况。
浸润线是尾矿坝的主要监测项目，一般采用测压管进行人工监测。为了探索新的有效监测技术，研究了自动监测技术及浅层折射地震法测试技术；结果表明，这两种技术的监测效果较好。尾矿坝监测获得的数据大多数为非等时序列，为解决其预测问题，本文创造性地提出了时数分离方法，即将时间与数据分开，得出时间序列与数据序列后，分别与提出的阶段序列构成时数模型，进而同步预测。文中进行了时数模型的GM(1，1)分析及残差分析。应用时数模型对德兴铜矿
中南大学博士学位论文
1’尾矿坝渗流进行了预测;结果表明，该模型预测精度较高。文中还
进行了灰色理论与混沌的祸合分析。
防洪渡汛是尾矿坝安全管理的重点。本文根据安全工程学原理，
建立了汛期尾矿库溃坝事故树，并进行了最小割集、最小径集及结构
重要度分析。结果表明，科学地决策汛前的排洪措施，是尾矿库防洪
渡汛的重点。文中创造性地将事故树中的逻辑关系模糊化，提出了一
种新的适用于尾矿库系统分析的模糊逻辑关系事故树。论文最后提出
了一种模糊灰色综合评价方法，对尾矿库安全进行评价。
The safety of tailings dam is an important subject in the field of mine. In this dissertation, the safety of tailings dam is researched deeply and thoroughly for the first time in nonlinear dynamics and system science based on the review of researching on tailings dam at home and abroad. The purpose of this work is to reveal safety mechanism and bring forward safety method for tailings dam.
The evolution of the saturation line is a new research problem. In this dissertation, the largest Lyapunov exponents and the correlation dimension are applied to analyze the monitoring data of the saturation line of tailings dam in Yinshan lead-Zinc Mine and No. 2 tailings dam in Dexing Copper Mine. The results show that the evolution of the saturation line is a chaos system, and the state of the saturation line can be evaluated by the largest Lyapunov exponents. Not only does the work reveal evolution essential of the saturation line but also point out a new way to analyze the monitoring data. The evolution of the saturation line can display in the dimension of both time and space. Considering the slope angle of tailings dam, a coupled map lattices model is proposed creatively to describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the saturation line on the basis of one-way coupled map lattices. Under the given initial-condition and boundary condition of the saturation line, the nonlinear dynamic of the new model is a
nalyzed. The results indicate that the complex spatiotemporal behavior exists in the evolution of the saturation line which can be influenced remarkably by slope angle.
According to the fact that the saturation line evolution
ABSTRACT
exists chaos state which gives affection to tailings dam safety in turn, a method of controlling chaos is put forward based on OGY method(weak perturbation). The essence of this method is to analyze the largest Lyapunov exponents and use to discriminate the change of chaotic character in time series before and after superposing a periodic vibration, and further realize chaos control. With this method, the monitoring data of the saturation line of tailings dam in Yinshan Lead-Zinc Mine are analyzed. The results show that the chaos can be restrained by superposing a periodic vibration. Therefore, controlling chaos in tailings dam system can be realized by the engineering measure of periodic control.
The tailings lenticle which is a key factor reflecting the sedimentation state of tailings dam, has great influence on the state of saturation line. In order to disclose the regularities of distribution of tailings lenticles, twelve geological explorative cross-sections which belong to seven tailings dams are analyzed with box dimension. The results make clear that the distribution of tailings lenticles has fractal character, and the values of lenticles box dimension reflect the sedimentation state of tailings dam.
The saturation line monitoring, which is done by manual usually with piezometric tube, is the main investigation item in tailings dam. In order to monitor the saturation line, an automatic monitoring technique and a shallow refractive seismic method are studied. Both of them have better effect on monitoring.
To solve the prediction problem of unequal interval sequence which appears usually in monitoring data of tailings dam, the Time and Data Separation Approach is put forward creatively in such a way that lets the time be separated from the data to gain the time sequence and data sequence, and then combines both time sequence and data sequence respectively with the interval sequence for constituting Time and Data Model, and finally
IV
synchronously makes prediction. According to the method, GM(1, 1) and Error Model of Time and Data are analyzed. For example, the trend of the seepage flow is analyzed in No. 1 tailings dam of Dexing Copper Mine, and the results indicate that the model can predict effectively. The Grey theory is also used in chaos analysis in this dissertation.
Flood prevention is emphasized in the safety management of tailings dam. According to the principle of
浸润线演化是一项新的研究课题，本文采用关联维及Lyapunov指数两个混沌特征量对德兴铜矿2~#尾矿坝、银山铅锌矿尾矿坝浸润线实测数据进行分析。结果表明，浸润线演化是一个混沌系统，最大Lyapunov指数可以作为评价浸润线状态的指标。这项工作不仅揭示了浸润线的演化本质，还为监测数据的理论分析指出了一条新的途径。浸润线演化可以表现在时间和空间两个方向上。本文在单向耦合映象格子模型基础上，考虑了尾矿坝坡角因素，创造性地建立了浸润线耦合映象格子模型。根据浸润线的初值条件和边界条件，对浸润线耦合映象格子模型进行了非线性动力学分析。结果表明，浸润线演化存在复杂时空混沌行为，且受坡角影响明显。针对浸润线演化出现混沌状态，而混沌又会影响到尾矿坝安全这一问题，根据参数微扰法的思想，提出了一种控制混沌的方法，即对时间序列动力系统叠加一个周期振动，通过分析叠加前后时间序列的最大Lyapunov指数，来判别系统混沌特性的变化，进而实现控制混沌。应用该方法对银山铅锌矿尾矿坝浸润线演化进行了研究；结果表明，叠加周期振动可以抑制系统的混沌，因此，可以通过周期性的工程措施，来控制尾矿坝系统混沌。
透镜体是反映尾矿堆积坝沉积状况的一个关键指标，它影响着浸润线状态。文中采用盒维数方法，研究了七座尾矿坝的12个工程勘察剖面透镜体的分布规律。结果表明，透镜体分布存在分形特性，透镜体盒维数可以表征堆积坝沉积状况。
浸润线是尾矿坝的主要监测项目，一般采用测压管进行人工监测。为了探索新的有效监测技术，研究了自动监测技术及浅层折射地震法测试技术；结果表明，这两种技术的监测效果较好。尾矿坝监测获得的数据大多数为非等时序列，为解决其预测问题，本文创造性地提出了时数分离方法，即将时间与数据分开，得出时间序列与数据序列后，分别与提出的阶段序列构成时数模型，进而同步预测。文中进行了时数模型的GM(1，1)分析及残差分析。应用时数模型对德兴铜矿
中南大学博士学位论文
1’尾矿坝渗流进行了预测;结果表明，该模型预测精度较高。文中还
进行了灰色理论与混沌的祸合分析。
防洪渡汛是尾矿坝安全管理的重点。本文根据安全工程学原理，
建立了汛期尾矿库溃坝事故树，并进行了最小割集、最小径集及结构
重要度分析。结果表明，科学地决策汛前的排洪措施，是尾矿库防洪
渡汛的重点。文中创造性地将事故树中的逻辑关系模糊化，提出了一
种新的适用于尾矿库系统分析的模糊逻辑关系事故树。论文最后提出
了一种模糊灰色综合评价方法，对尾矿库安全进行评价。
The safety of tailings dam is an important subject in the field of mine. In this dissertation, the safety of tailings dam is researched deeply and thoroughly for the first time in nonlinear dynamics and system science based on the review of researching on tailings dam at home and abroad. The purpose of this work is to reveal safety mechanism and bring forward safety method for tailings dam.
The evolution of the saturation line is a new research problem. In this dissertation, the largest Lyapunov exponents and the correlation dimension are applied to analyze the monitoring data of the saturation line of tailings dam in Yinshan lead-Zinc Mine and No. 2 tailings dam in Dexing Copper Mine. The results show that the evolution of the saturation line is a chaos system, and the state of the saturation line can be evaluated by the largest Lyapunov exponents. Not only does the work reveal evolution essential of the saturation line but also point out a new way to analyze the monitoring data. The evolution of the saturation line can display in the dimension of both time and space. Considering the slope angle of tailings dam, a coupled map lattices model is proposed creatively to describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the saturation line on the basis of one-way coupled map lattices. Under the given initial-condition and boundary condition of the saturation line, the nonlinear dynamic of the new model is a
nalyzed. The results indicate that the complex spatiotemporal behavior exists in the evolution of the saturation line which can be influenced remarkably by slope angle.
According to the fact that the saturation line evolution
ABSTRACT
exists chaos state which gives affection to tailings dam safety in turn, a method of controlling chaos is put forward based on OGY method(weak perturbation). The essence of this method is to analyze the largest Lyapunov exponents and use to discriminate the change of chaotic character in time series before and after superposing a periodic vibration, and further realize chaos control. With this method, the monitoring data of the saturation line of tailings dam in Yinshan Lead-Zinc Mine are analyzed. The results show that the chaos can be restrained by superposing a periodic vibration. Therefore, controlling chaos in tailings dam system can be realized by the engineering measure of periodic control.
The tailings lenticle which is a key factor reflecting the sedimentation state of tailings dam, has great influence on the state of saturation line. In order to disclose the regularities of distribution of tailings lenticles, twelve geological explorative cross-sections which belong to seven tailings dams are analyzed with box dimension. The results make clear that the distribution of tailings lenticles has fractal character, and the values of lenticles box dimension reflect the sedimentation state of tailings dam.
The saturation line monitoring, which is done by manual usually with piezometric tube, is the main investigation item in tailings dam. In order to monitor the saturation line, an automatic monitoring technique and a shallow refractive seismic method are studied. Both of them have better effect on monitoring.
To solve the prediction problem of unequal interval sequence which appears usually in monitoring data of tailings dam, the Time and Data Separation Approach is put forward creatively in such a way that lets the time be separated from the data to gain the time sequence and data sequence, and then combines both time sequence and data sequence respectively with the interval sequence for constituting Time and Data Model, and finally
IV
synchronously makes prediction. According to the method, GM(1, 1) and Error Model of Time and Data are analyzed. For example, the trend of the seepage flow is analyzed in No. 1 tailings dam of Dexing Copper Mine, and the results indicate that the model can predict effectively. The Grey theory is also used in chaos analysis in this dissertation.
Flood prevention is emphasized in the safety management of tailings dam. According to the principle of
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