山区桥梁建设期多因素风险评估方法研究
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摘要
山岭地区的面积占我国国土面积的大部分，具有曲线、大纵坡、高墩大跨径等特征的山区高速公路桥梁，在建设上有着相当的难度，其外部环境的复杂性、不确定性和工程本身的复杂性以及人们预测能力的局限性，导致了山区桥梁建设和运营具有风险性。直到目前为止，系统、完善的风险科学学科体系尚未形成，这方面研究仍然主要是在各个风险应用行业之间，主要依靠研究者的广泛交流，逐步推进。有鉴于此，系统研究山区桥梁风险评估的理论方法和体系具有十分重要的学术意义和应用前景。
本文在系统地归纳风险评估相关的理论基础上，研究了山区桥梁建设期多因素风险评估的理论框架，并提出了风险评估的识别方法、概率估计方法、多因素作用下风险概率数学模型的建立方法。将模糊综合法、易损度理论、神经网络理论、改进的HCR人因分析法应用到依托工程的风险评估中，并得到可靠的风险分析结果。
本文以湖北省宜昌至巴东高速公路上几座典型的山区高速公路桥梁为工程依托，根据桥梁结构特点和所处环境可能的灾害性质，对本文所提出的风险评估方法分别进行了应用和检验：
1、建立了桥梁建设期地震风险评估方法，运用Opensee有限元软件建立了香溪河大桥分析模型，把获得的地震波经过IDA分析得到24条地震波，将这些地震波输入到桥梁结构模型中，得到相应的桥梁结构的地震响应，选取强度破坏准则为结构失效准则，运用RBF神经网络实现蒙特卡洛法抽样，最终得到地震风险失效概率；
2、建立了桥梁建设期滑坡和泥石流风险评估方法，运用模糊综合法对香溪河大桥的滑坡和泥石流进行了分析，得到了滑坡和泥石流地质灾害的风险概率以及危险性和易损性评价结果。
3、运用MIDAS有限元软件建立了神农溪主桥（140m+320m+140m预应力混凝土双塔斜拉桥）施工阶段模型，应用改进的HCR人因分析理论、易损性理论对神农溪主桥施工阶段的人为因素分析（孔道堵塞、预应力张拉过程）、挂篮掉落、断索进行研究了分析，并得出风险评估结果。
论文通过上述多种风险因素评估研究，获得了以下创新性研究成果：
1、建立了由桥梁施工期多因素风险识别、风险分析、风险评价及风险控制构成的桥梁施工期多因素风险评估模型。其中，提出了基于结构易损性、改进HCR分析方法及人机系统事故概率的风险分析模型，构建了建设期结构失效概率模型、多因素概率风险评价模型，并对香溪河特大桥在滑坡和地震双风险因素共同作用下桥墩的破坏概率进行了实例分析。
2、建立了基于有限元分析方法与神经网络相结合的桥梁建设期地震风险评估方法，运用Opensee有限元软件建立桥梁分析模型，运用RBF神经网络实现蒙特卡洛法抽样，得到桥梁地震风险失效概率。
3、建立了桥梁建设期滑坡和泥石流风险评估方法，提出了基于模糊综合评价理论的滑坡和泥石流灾害作用下桥梁结构的危险性评价方法与桥梁结构的易损性评价方法。
Mountain area accounts for most of our country's land area, there are considerabledifficulties in construction and use for those highway bridges with a curve, longitudinal slope,high pier and long span.The limitations of its complexity, the complexity of the externalenvironment of uncertainty and the project itself as well as the people prediction abilityresulting in the mountain bridge has a great risk. So far the concreted, perfect risk sciencesystem has not been formed, those related researches still mainly in between eachapplications of industry risk, mainly rely on extensive exchanges of researchers, step by step.In view of this, the theoretical method and specific of mountain bridge risk assessment is verysignificant.
In this paper, on the basis of systematically summarized the risk assessment, thetheoretical framework of the mountain bridge construction period of risk assessment, and putforward the risk assessment distinguishing method, probability estimation method, themethod for measuring the loss model. The fuzzy comprehensive method, vulnerability theory,neural network theory, the improved HCR human factors analysis method is applied to therisk assessment on the project, to get a reliable risk analysis results.
This paper takes Hubei province of Yichang to Badong Expressway on several typicalmountainous area highway bridges as background. According to the bridge structurecharacteristics and the nature of possible environmental hazards, this paper tests and appliesrisk assessment method presented in this paper:
1.Establish a bridge construction period of earthquake risk assessment method, XiangxiRiver bridge model is built by using Opensee finite element software, the earthquake waveobtained by IDA analysis of24seismic wave, input these seismic waves to the bridgestructure model, obtained the corresponding seismic response, select failure strength criterionas the structural failure criteria, using RBF neural network make the Monte Carlo samplingcome true, finally get the seismic risk of failure probability;
2.Establish a bridge construction period of landslide and debris flow risk assessmentmethods, use the fuzzy comprehensive method analysed the landslide and debris flow ofXiangxi River Bridge,got the result of landslide and debris flow risk probability and risk andvulnerability assessment;
3.Use finite element software MIDAS to establish the Shennong River Bridge(140m+320m+140m prestressed concrete cable-stayed bridge over Twin Towers) modelconstruction stage, the human factor analysis theory, theoretical vulnerability of Shennongstream of construction phase of the analysis of the application of improved HCR (due to poreblockage, prestress tension process).As well as fall, broken wire hanging basket research onthe analysis, then obtain the risk assessment results.
Through the various risk factors assessment study, the following research results of thispaper obtained:
1.Set up the bridge construction risk assessment element model consists of the bridgeconstruction of risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation and risk control. Among them,proposed models based on the structural vulnerability, improved HCR method and analysis ofman-machine system accident probability risk analysis, constructed the structure failureprobability model during construction, and the probability risk assessment model of multiplefactors and the multiple factor risk loss model.
2.Establish the construction period of earthquake risk assessment method based on thecombination of the finite element analysis method and the neural network, using finiteelement software Opensee to establish the bridge model, implementation of Monte Carlosampling using RBF neural network, then get the bridge seismic risk probability of failure.
3.Establish a bridge construction period of landslide and debris flow risk assessmentmethod, proposed the vulnerability assessment of risk assessment methods and the bridgestructure method of bridge structure based on the effect of the theory of fuzzy comprehensiveevaluation of landslide and debris flow disaster.
本文在系统地归纳风险评估相关的理论基础上，研究了山区桥梁建设期多因素风险评估的理论框架，并提出了风险评估的识别方法、概率估计方法、多因素作用下风险概率数学模型的建立方法。将模糊综合法、易损度理论、神经网络理论、改进的HCR人因分析法应用到依托工程的风险评估中，并得到可靠的风险分析结果。
本文以湖北省宜昌至巴东高速公路上几座典型的山区高速公路桥梁为工程依托，根据桥梁结构特点和所处环境可能的灾害性质，对本文所提出的风险评估方法分别进行了应用和检验：
1、建立了桥梁建设期地震风险评估方法，运用Opensee有限元软件建立了香溪河大桥分析模型，把获得的地震波经过IDA分析得到24条地震波，将这些地震波输入到桥梁结构模型中，得到相应的桥梁结构的地震响应，选取强度破坏准则为结构失效准则，运用RBF神经网络实现蒙特卡洛法抽样，最终得到地震风险失效概率；
2、建立了桥梁建设期滑坡和泥石流风险评估方法，运用模糊综合法对香溪河大桥的滑坡和泥石流进行了分析，得到了滑坡和泥石流地质灾害的风险概率以及危险性和易损性评价结果。
3、运用MIDAS有限元软件建立了神农溪主桥（140m+320m+140m预应力混凝土双塔斜拉桥）施工阶段模型，应用改进的HCR人因分析理论、易损性理论对神农溪主桥施工阶段的人为因素分析（孔道堵塞、预应力张拉过程）、挂篮掉落、断索进行研究了分析，并得出风险评估结果。
论文通过上述多种风险因素评估研究，获得了以下创新性研究成果：
1、建立了由桥梁施工期多因素风险识别、风险分析、风险评价及风险控制构成的桥梁施工期多因素风险评估模型。其中，提出了基于结构易损性、改进HCR分析方法及人机系统事故概率的风险分析模型，构建了建设期结构失效概率模型、多因素概率风险评价模型，并对香溪河特大桥在滑坡和地震双风险因素共同作用下桥墩的破坏概率进行了实例分析。
2、建立了基于有限元分析方法与神经网络相结合的桥梁建设期地震风险评估方法，运用Opensee有限元软件建立桥梁分析模型，运用RBF神经网络实现蒙特卡洛法抽样，得到桥梁地震风险失效概率。
3、建立了桥梁建设期滑坡和泥石流风险评估方法，提出了基于模糊综合评价理论的滑坡和泥石流灾害作用下桥梁结构的危险性评价方法与桥梁结构的易损性评价方法。
Mountain area accounts for most of our country's land area, there are considerabledifficulties in construction and use for those highway bridges with a curve, longitudinal slope,high pier and long span.The limitations of its complexity, the complexity of the externalenvironment of uncertainty and the project itself as well as the people prediction abilityresulting in the mountain bridge has a great risk. So far the concreted, perfect risk sciencesystem has not been formed, those related researches still mainly in between eachapplications of industry risk, mainly rely on extensive exchanges of researchers, step by step.In view of this, the theoretical method and specific of mountain bridge risk assessment is verysignificant.
In this paper, on the basis of systematically summarized the risk assessment, thetheoretical framework of the mountain bridge construction period of risk assessment, and putforward the risk assessment distinguishing method, probability estimation method, themethod for measuring the loss model. The fuzzy comprehensive method, vulnerability theory,neural network theory, the improved HCR human factors analysis method is applied to therisk assessment on the project, to get a reliable risk analysis results.
This paper takes Hubei province of Yichang to Badong Expressway on several typicalmountainous area highway bridges as background. According to the bridge structurecharacteristics and the nature of possible environmental hazards, this paper tests and appliesrisk assessment method presented in this paper:
1.Establish a bridge construction period of earthquake risk assessment method, XiangxiRiver bridge model is built by using Opensee finite element software, the earthquake waveobtained by IDA analysis of24seismic wave, input these seismic waves to the bridgestructure model, obtained the corresponding seismic response, select failure strength criterionas the structural failure criteria, using RBF neural network make the Monte Carlo samplingcome true, finally get the seismic risk of failure probability;
2.Establish a bridge construction period of landslide and debris flow risk assessmentmethods, use the fuzzy comprehensive method analysed the landslide and debris flow ofXiangxi River Bridge,got the result of landslide and debris flow risk probability and risk andvulnerability assessment;
3.Use finite element software MIDAS to establish the Shennong River Bridge(140m+320m+140m prestressed concrete cable-stayed bridge over Twin Towers) modelconstruction stage, the human factor analysis theory, theoretical vulnerability of Shennongstream of construction phase of the analysis of the application of improved HCR (due to poreblockage, prestress tension process).As well as fall, broken wire hanging basket research onthe analysis, then obtain the risk assessment results.
Through the various risk factors assessment study, the following research results of thispaper obtained:
1.Set up the bridge construction risk assessment element model consists of the bridgeconstruction of risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation and risk control. Among them,proposed models based on the structural vulnerability, improved HCR method and analysis ofman-machine system accident probability risk analysis, constructed the structure failureprobability model during construction, and the probability risk assessment model of multiplefactors and the multiple factor risk loss model.
2.Establish the construction period of earthquake risk assessment method based on thecombination of the finite element analysis method and the neural network, using finiteelement software Opensee to establish the bridge model, implementation of Monte Carlosampling using RBF neural network, then get the bridge seismic risk probability of failure.
3.Establish a bridge construction period of landslide and debris flow risk assessmentmethod, proposed the vulnerability assessment of risk assessment methods and the bridgestructure method of bridge structure based on the effect of the theory of fuzzy comprehensiveevaluation of landslide and debris flow disaster.
引文
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