船舶人因事故预警管理研究
|
摘要
随着世界经济的发展,各国之间交往的加强,带来经济的繁荣,国际贸易量呈飞速发展趋势,因此水上运输也变得日益繁忙。作为运输工具之一的船舶在运输链中承担着越来越重要的角色,国际贸易的飞速发展对船舶的性能也提出了相当高的要求,船舶更加趋向智能化、集成化、复杂化。随着人类科技水平的发展、社会的进步,船舶系统机器设备的可靠性有了长足的进步,由单纯的船舶硬件导致的海难事故已经鲜有发生,而人为事故成为船舶海难事故的最重要组成部分,船舶系统已经演化为典型的复杂社会技术系统,人在该系统中的作用并没有因为科技水平的提高而降低,相反这种作用在船舶海难事故中表现的愈来愈强烈,如何有效的实现对船舶人因事故的预警管理已经成为各船舶营运企业关注的头等大事,也是保障国际贸易健康快速发展、促进世界经济大发展的重要问题。
本文对船舶系统安全事故进行了界定,澄清了长期以来人们“无事故即是安全”的错误认识,将船舶系统安全事故视为一个系统功能发挥的过程,具有系统演化的特征,并指出船舶安全事故只是该系统演化的最终阶段和形式,且对预警管理并没有重大的意义,而应该关注该系统演化的整个过程；本文详细论述了船舶安全事故的特征,并通过大量的统计数据分析了船舶安全事故的规律,指出船舶安全事故的人为特征正在逐渐加强,对船舶人因事故的预警管理将在很大程度上降低船舶事故的发生,船舶人因事故预警管理已经成为船舶营运企业安全管理的重要组成部分；本文对船舶人因事故的致因机理进行了深入的研究,详细梳理了传统事故致因理论的主要观点,研究了事故致因理论的发展脉络,指出基于牛顿范式的线性事故致因理论只能找到事故的致因要素,由此引发的对船舶人因事故的预警管理只能是事后的经验式管理,无法实现对船舶人因事故的长效预防,船舶人因事故是一个系统发挥功能的过程,该系统的结构在事故演化过程中所起的作用随着系统要素可靠性的提高而越来越重要,系统要素的相干交互作用导致的事故的结构敏感性已经成为事故的重要致因。
根据船舶人因事故系统要素致因机理和系统结构致因机理及对预警和预警管理的辨析,本文指出船舶人因事故预警管理的最终目标是实现船舶人因事故系统的本质安全,实现对船舶人因事故的长效预防,该终极目标具有层次性,而且该层次性是和船舶人因事故系统本质安全的层次性一一对应的,每个层次都有具体的内容。船舶人因事故预警管理终极目标的层次性决定了该预警管理具有过程性、主动改进性和柔性,基于此,本文借鉴能力成熟度模型(CMM),构建了船舶人因事故预警管理的过程域模型,该模型由初级安全域、结构安全域、安全文化域三个过程子域构成,初级安全域实现的是船舶人因事故系统要素的本质安全,结构安全域实现的则是该系统构成要素之间相干交互作用的本质安全,文化安全域是三个过程子域中层次最高的子域,实现的是船舶营运企业文化的本质安全。
对船舶人因事故系统来讲,实现其构成要素的本质安全,重点需要对其要素实施检测和评价,该系统中最重要的组成要素可以分为两类：机器设备类和人。对机器设备本质安全的研究应重点考量对其故障模式的诊断,当前对机器设备的故障诊断存在很多的方法,其中近年来兴起的支持向量机算法在故障诊断领域取得了较好的效果,但是针对小样本、多故障模式、样本不平衡的故障诊断问题,支持向量机算法也存在自身的一些缺点,为使该算法在船舶人因事故系统机器设备要素故障诊断中有更好的应用,本文提出了FCM-SVM混合算法以解决样本不平衡问题,并针对支持向量机参数难以选择的问题,提出应用粒子群算法实现参数寻优,理论上能得到最优解；对系统的另一类重要的构成要素—人的本质安全研究,本文首先界定了人员初级本质安全的概念,并深入探讨了影响其本质安全的因素,针对人员本质安全评价难以定量化的问题,本文提出以行为—后果这种输入—输出模式为评价的出发点,以输出——船舶人因事故后果为评价对象,探求输入——船舶人因事故系统个体人行为对输出的影响,找到随输入变化输出的变化规律,并认为输入和输出之间具有典型的小样本、贫信息的灰色特征,因此,本文提出应用灰色系统理论中的灰色关联分析方法评价人员的初级本质安全问题,并就灰色关联分析方法对指标权重比较敏感的特性,提出了熵权优化的灰色关联方法,较好的反映了样本数据的信息。
船舶人因事故的结构敏感性导致了传统事故致因理论因果律失效,船舶人因事故中“同果不同因”、“同因不同果”是普遍存在的现象,其结构敏感性在人因事故发生、演化过程中突出表现为出船舶人因事故系统的脆性,该性质的发现很好的解释了当前船舶人因事故预警管理存在的“头痛医头脚痛医脚”的被动的、事后的、经验的预警管理模式无法实现对事故长效预防的原因,通过对该系统脆性的研究更进一步深化了事故的结构致因机理,明确了事故演化的规律,通过对该系统脆性熵变及系统脆性关联的研究,较好的贯彻了“安全第一,预防为主”的船舶人因事故预警管理宗旨。
企业本质安全文化是实现船舶人因事故长效预防的关键要素,是船舶人因事故预警管理过程域中层次最高的过程子域,它以弥漫式的潜移默化作用影响船舶人因事故系统的方方面面,实现船舶营运企业安全文化的本质化是船舶人因事故预警管理的关键所在,本文从物态文化建设、制度文化建设、精神文化建设三面着手深入研究了船舶营运企业本质安全文化的建设模式问题,指出了该本质安全文化建设的目标及原则。
The economic prosperity, rapid growth of international trade has been brought forward with the high-speed development of global economy and the enhanced communication among defferent countries. The water transport becomes busier and busier, and the ship becomes more and more important as one of conveyances in the transportation chain, so the rapid development of international trade puts forward rather high requirement, and the ship becomes more and more intelligent, integrated and complicated. The reliability of machinery equipment in ship system has become much higher with the development of human science and technology level and the advancement of society, so the maritime accidents due to ship machinery equipment has occurred less and less, but the maritime accidents due to human factors has been the main component of maritime accidents. The ship system has become a typical and complex socio-technical system, in which the role that human plays in this system does not become little because of the advanced science and technology level, In contrary the role becomes stronger and stronger in maritime accidents. How to implement forewarning management on ship accidents due to human factors has been the most important event to ship transportation enterprises, which is also the important event for the rapid growth of international trade and high-speed development of global economy.
This paper defines ship system safety accident, and clarifies the cognition of "where is no accident, where is safe" which effects people for a long time, and believes that the ship system accident is a process of a system function exerting which has the typical system evolution features. And this paper points out that the ship safety accidents are the merely utimate stage and form of system evolution, which has less great significance for ship accidents forewarning management, and the whole process of system evolution should be paid great attention; This paper discusses the characteristics of ship safety accidents detailedly, and analyses the rules of ship safety accidents based on a mass of statistical data. Based on the rules, this paper points out that the human factors of ship safety accidents has been enhancing, so the effective forewarning management of ship accidents due to human factors will reduce the incidence rate of ship safety accidents to a great extent. The forewarning management of ship accidents due to human factors has been the most important component of safety management in ship transportation enterprises. This paper studies the causation mechanism of ship accidents due to human factors deeply, in which the traditional accidents causation theories'main viewpoints are carded detailedly and the development vein of accidents causation theories is studied deeply. Based on the achievements from the research on traditional accidents causation theories, this paper points out that the traditional linear accidents causation theories which is based on Newtonian paradigm following the philosophical thinking of Descartes can only find out the causation elements of accidents, and the forewarning management of ship accidents is ex post facto empirical management which can not achieve the long-term prevention to ship accidents due to human factors. The ship accidents due to human factors is the process of a system exerting function, and the structure of the system plays more and more important role in ship accidents due to human factors evolution with the reliability of system elements being improved increasingly. The sructure sensitivity of the ship accidents due to human factors from the coherent interaction among system elements has been the most important causation.
In the basis of the discrimination of forewarning and forewarning management and system elements causation and system structure causation of ship accidents due to human factors, This paper points out that the ultimate object of forewarning management on ship accidents due to human factors is to realize the intrinsic safety of the ship accidents system due to human factors, and to realise the long-term prevention on ship accidents due to human factors. This object has the typical hierarchy, which matches the hierarchy of ship accidents system due to human factors intrinsic saftey, and there is detailed content in each hierarchy. The hierarchy of the ultimate object in forewarning management on ship accidents due to human factors determines that the forewarning management has the characteristics of process nature, active improvement nature and flexibility nature. So, this paper establishes the process area model for ship accidents due to human factors in the basis of Capability Maturity Model(CMM), and the model consists primary safety area, structural safety area and safe culture area. The primary safety area realizes the intrinsic safety of system elements in ship accidents system due to human factors, and the structural safety area realizes the intrinsic safety of the coherent interaction among system elements, while the safe culture area is on the highest hierarchy realizing the intrinsic safety of ship transportation enterprise culture.
To realize the intrinsic safety of system elements in ship accidents system due to human factors, the most important is to make some checking and evaluating. The elements in the ship accident system due to human factors consist two parts:the machinery inquipment and man. The study on the intrinsic safety of machinery inqipment should pay attention to the fault diagnosis. And there are a lot of methods to carry out fault diagnosis to machinery equipment, among of which the Surport Vector Machine newly popular in recent years has got better effect in fault diagnosis. But SVM has some disadvantages in solving fault diagnosis problems with the characteristics of small sample, multi-fault pattern and sample imbalance. In order to implement SVM in machinery equipment fault diagnosis better, this paper puts forward FCM-SVM hybrid algorithm to solve the problem of sample imbalance, and according to the problem that paramenters of SVM are not easy to select, this paper brings forward implementing PSO algorithm to realize parameters optimization which can get the theoretical optimal solution; About another important element's intrinsic safety in ship accidents system due to human factors-human, this paper defines the definition of primary intrinsic safety of human, and discusses the factors that affect its primary intrinsic safety deeply. According to the problem that it is difficult to quantitatively evaluate the primary intrinsic safety of human, this paper takes "Behavior-Consequence" as the starting point, and takes the consequence of ship accidents due to human factors as the evaluating objects to hunt for the relationship between behavior and consequnce, and also hunts for the variation law between the input and output. The relationship between the input (behavior) and output(consequence) has the typical grey characterisrics of small sample and poor information. So, this paper brings forward using grey relational analysis method in grey system theory to evaluate human's primary intrinsic safety problems, and according to the characteristic that grey relational analysis method is sensitive to index weight, this paper utilizes entropy weight to optimize grey relational analysis which can preserve sample's information better.
The structure sensitivity causes the failure of causality in traditional accidents causation theories, and in ship accidents due to human factors, it is universal that the same causation has different consequence, and the same consequence has different causation. The structure sensitivity in ship accidents due to human factors manifests as the brittleness of the system, and this characteristic of ship accidents system due to human factors explains the reason why the current ship accidents forewarning management which is the unilateral, ex post facto empirical management can not realize the object of long-term prevention on ship accidents due to human factors. The structure causation mechanism and the evolution rule of ship accidents due to human factors are known about deeply based on the study on brittleness of the system. After the research on system brittleness entropy change and system brittleness association, the model carries out the ship accidents forewarning management due to human factors tenet of "safety first, prevention first".
The intrinsic safety culture of the enterprise is the key factor to realize the object of long-term prevention for ship accidents due to human factors, and it is also in the highest level of forewarning management. The intrinsic safety culture affects the ship accidents system due to human factors detailedly, and how to realize the intrinsic safety culture is the key factor for ship accidents due to human factors forewarning. This paper studies on the intrinsic safety culture construction mode of ship transportation enterprises in the consideration of material culture construction, system culture construction and spiritual cultural construction, and points out the construction object and principle.
本文对船舶系统安全事故进行了界定,澄清了长期以来人们“无事故即是安全”的错误认识,将船舶系统安全事故视为一个系统功能发挥的过程,具有系统演化的特征,并指出船舶安全事故只是该系统演化的最终阶段和形式,且对预警管理并没有重大的意义,而应该关注该系统演化的整个过程；本文详细论述了船舶安全事故的特征,并通过大量的统计数据分析了船舶安全事故的规律,指出船舶安全事故的人为特征正在逐渐加强,对船舶人因事故的预警管理将在很大程度上降低船舶事故的发生,船舶人因事故预警管理已经成为船舶营运企业安全管理的重要组成部分；本文对船舶人因事故的致因机理进行了深入的研究,详细梳理了传统事故致因理论的主要观点,研究了事故致因理论的发展脉络,指出基于牛顿范式的线性事故致因理论只能找到事故的致因要素,由此引发的对船舶人因事故的预警管理只能是事后的经验式管理,无法实现对船舶人因事故的长效预防,船舶人因事故是一个系统发挥功能的过程,该系统的结构在事故演化过程中所起的作用随着系统要素可靠性的提高而越来越重要,系统要素的相干交互作用导致的事故的结构敏感性已经成为事故的重要致因。
根据船舶人因事故系统要素致因机理和系统结构致因机理及对预警和预警管理的辨析,本文指出船舶人因事故预警管理的最终目标是实现船舶人因事故系统的本质安全,实现对船舶人因事故的长效预防,该终极目标具有层次性,而且该层次性是和船舶人因事故系统本质安全的层次性一一对应的,每个层次都有具体的内容。船舶人因事故预警管理终极目标的层次性决定了该预警管理具有过程性、主动改进性和柔性,基于此,本文借鉴能力成熟度模型(CMM),构建了船舶人因事故预警管理的过程域模型,该模型由初级安全域、结构安全域、安全文化域三个过程子域构成,初级安全域实现的是船舶人因事故系统要素的本质安全,结构安全域实现的则是该系统构成要素之间相干交互作用的本质安全,文化安全域是三个过程子域中层次最高的子域,实现的是船舶营运企业文化的本质安全。
对船舶人因事故系统来讲,实现其构成要素的本质安全,重点需要对其要素实施检测和评价,该系统中最重要的组成要素可以分为两类：机器设备类和人。对机器设备本质安全的研究应重点考量对其故障模式的诊断,当前对机器设备的故障诊断存在很多的方法,其中近年来兴起的支持向量机算法在故障诊断领域取得了较好的效果,但是针对小样本、多故障模式、样本不平衡的故障诊断问题,支持向量机算法也存在自身的一些缺点,为使该算法在船舶人因事故系统机器设备要素故障诊断中有更好的应用,本文提出了FCM-SVM混合算法以解决样本不平衡问题,并针对支持向量机参数难以选择的问题,提出应用粒子群算法实现参数寻优,理论上能得到最优解；对系统的另一类重要的构成要素—人的本质安全研究,本文首先界定了人员初级本质安全的概念,并深入探讨了影响其本质安全的因素,针对人员本质安全评价难以定量化的问题,本文提出以行为—后果这种输入—输出模式为评价的出发点,以输出——船舶人因事故后果为评价对象,探求输入——船舶人因事故系统个体人行为对输出的影响,找到随输入变化输出的变化规律,并认为输入和输出之间具有典型的小样本、贫信息的灰色特征,因此,本文提出应用灰色系统理论中的灰色关联分析方法评价人员的初级本质安全问题,并就灰色关联分析方法对指标权重比较敏感的特性,提出了熵权优化的灰色关联方法,较好的反映了样本数据的信息。
船舶人因事故的结构敏感性导致了传统事故致因理论因果律失效,船舶人因事故中“同果不同因”、“同因不同果”是普遍存在的现象,其结构敏感性在人因事故发生、演化过程中突出表现为出船舶人因事故系统的脆性,该性质的发现很好的解释了当前船舶人因事故预警管理存在的“头痛医头脚痛医脚”的被动的、事后的、经验的预警管理模式无法实现对事故长效预防的原因,通过对该系统脆性的研究更进一步深化了事故的结构致因机理,明确了事故演化的规律,通过对该系统脆性熵变及系统脆性关联的研究,较好的贯彻了“安全第一,预防为主”的船舶人因事故预警管理宗旨。
企业本质安全文化是实现船舶人因事故长效预防的关键要素,是船舶人因事故预警管理过程域中层次最高的过程子域,它以弥漫式的潜移默化作用影响船舶人因事故系统的方方面面,实现船舶营运企业安全文化的本质化是船舶人因事故预警管理的关键所在,本文从物态文化建设、制度文化建设、精神文化建设三面着手深入研究了船舶营运企业本质安全文化的建设模式问题,指出了该本质安全文化建设的目标及原则。
The economic prosperity, rapid growth of international trade has been brought forward with the high-speed development of global economy and the enhanced communication among defferent countries. The water transport becomes busier and busier, and the ship becomes more and more important as one of conveyances in the transportation chain, so the rapid development of international trade puts forward rather high requirement, and the ship becomes more and more intelligent, integrated and complicated. The reliability of machinery equipment in ship system has become much higher with the development of human science and technology level and the advancement of society, so the maritime accidents due to ship machinery equipment has occurred less and less, but the maritime accidents due to human factors has been the main component of maritime accidents. The ship system has become a typical and complex socio-technical system, in which the role that human plays in this system does not become little because of the advanced science and technology level, In contrary the role becomes stronger and stronger in maritime accidents. How to implement forewarning management on ship accidents due to human factors has been the most important event to ship transportation enterprises, which is also the important event for the rapid growth of international trade and high-speed development of global economy.
This paper defines ship system safety accident, and clarifies the cognition of "where is no accident, where is safe" which effects people for a long time, and believes that the ship system accident is a process of a system function exerting which has the typical system evolution features. And this paper points out that the ship safety accidents are the merely utimate stage and form of system evolution, which has less great significance for ship accidents forewarning management, and the whole process of system evolution should be paid great attention; This paper discusses the characteristics of ship safety accidents detailedly, and analyses the rules of ship safety accidents based on a mass of statistical data. Based on the rules, this paper points out that the human factors of ship safety accidents has been enhancing, so the effective forewarning management of ship accidents due to human factors will reduce the incidence rate of ship safety accidents to a great extent. The forewarning management of ship accidents due to human factors has been the most important component of safety management in ship transportation enterprises. This paper studies the causation mechanism of ship accidents due to human factors deeply, in which the traditional accidents causation theories'main viewpoints are carded detailedly and the development vein of accidents causation theories is studied deeply. Based on the achievements from the research on traditional accidents causation theories, this paper points out that the traditional linear accidents causation theories which is based on Newtonian paradigm following the philosophical thinking of Descartes can only find out the causation elements of accidents, and the forewarning management of ship accidents is ex post facto empirical management which can not achieve the long-term prevention to ship accidents due to human factors. The ship accidents due to human factors is the process of a system exerting function, and the structure of the system plays more and more important role in ship accidents due to human factors evolution with the reliability of system elements being improved increasingly. The sructure sensitivity of the ship accidents due to human factors from the coherent interaction among system elements has been the most important causation.
In the basis of the discrimination of forewarning and forewarning management and system elements causation and system structure causation of ship accidents due to human factors, This paper points out that the ultimate object of forewarning management on ship accidents due to human factors is to realize the intrinsic safety of the ship accidents system due to human factors, and to realise the long-term prevention on ship accidents due to human factors. This object has the typical hierarchy, which matches the hierarchy of ship accidents system due to human factors intrinsic saftey, and there is detailed content in each hierarchy. The hierarchy of the ultimate object in forewarning management on ship accidents due to human factors determines that the forewarning management has the characteristics of process nature, active improvement nature and flexibility nature. So, this paper establishes the process area model for ship accidents due to human factors in the basis of Capability Maturity Model(CMM), and the model consists primary safety area, structural safety area and safe culture area. The primary safety area realizes the intrinsic safety of system elements in ship accidents system due to human factors, and the structural safety area realizes the intrinsic safety of the coherent interaction among system elements, while the safe culture area is on the highest hierarchy realizing the intrinsic safety of ship transportation enterprise culture.
To realize the intrinsic safety of system elements in ship accidents system due to human factors, the most important is to make some checking and evaluating. The elements in the ship accident system due to human factors consist two parts:the machinery inquipment and man. The study on the intrinsic safety of machinery inqipment should pay attention to the fault diagnosis. And there are a lot of methods to carry out fault diagnosis to machinery equipment, among of which the Surport Vector Machine newly popular in recent years has got better effect in fault diagnosis. But SVM has some disadvantages in solving fault diagnosis problems with the characteristics of small sample, multi-fault pattern and sample imbalance. In order to implement SVM in machinery equipment fault diagnosis better, this paper puts forward FCM-SVM hybrid algorithm to solve the problem of sample imbalance, and according to the problem that paramenters of SVM are not easy to select, this paper brings forward implementing PSO algorithm to realize parameters optimization which can get the theoretical optimal solution; About another important element's intrinsic safety in ship accidents system due to human factors-human, this paper defines the definition of primary intrinsic safety of human, and discusses the factors that affect its primary intrinsic safety deeply. According to the problem that it is difficult to quantitatively evaluate the primary intrinsic safety of human, this paper takes "Behavior-Consequence" as the starting point, and takes the consequence of ship accidents due to human factors as the evaluating objects to hunt for the relationship between behavior and consequnce, and also hunts for the variation law between the input and output. The relationship between the input (behavior) and output(consequence) has the typical grey characterisrics of small sample and poor information. So, this paper brings forward using grey relational analysis method in grey system theory to evaluate human's primary intrinsic safety problems, and according to the characteristic that grey relational analysis method is sensitive to index weight, this paper utilizes entropy weight to optimize grey relational analysis which can preserve sample's information better.
The structure sensitivity causes the failure of causality in traditional accidents causation theories, and in ship accidents due to human factors, it is universal that the same causation has different consequence, and the same consequence has different causation. The structure sensitivity in ship accidents due to human factors manifests as the brittleness of the system, and this characteristic of ship accidents system due to human factors explains the reason why the current ship accidents forewarning management which is the unilateral, ex post facto empirical management can not realize the object of long-term prevention on ship accidents due to human factors. The structure causation mechanism and the evolution rule of ship accidents due to human factors are known about deeply based on the study on brittleness of the system. After the research on system brittleness entropy change and system brittleness association, the model carries out the ship accidents forewarning management due to human factors tenet of "safety first, prevention first".
The intrinsic safety culture of the enterprise is the key factor to realize the object of long-term prevention for ship accidents due to human factors, and it is also in the highest level of forewarning management. The intrinsic safety culture affects the ship accidents system due to human factors detailedly, and how to realize the intrinsic safety culture is the key factor for ship accidents due to human factors forewarning. This paper studies on the intrinsic safety culture construction mode of ship transportation enterprises in the consideration of material culture construction, system culture construction and spiritual cultural construction, and points out the construction object and principle.
引文
[1]郑双忠,陈宝智等.复杂社会技术系统人因组织行为安全控制模型[J].东北大学学报(自然科学版).2001,22(3)：288-290
[2]国家自然科学基金委员会管理科学部.管理科学发展战略—暨管理科学“十一五”优先资助领域[M].北京：科学出版社,2006
[3]何旭洪,黄祥瑞.工业系统中人的可靠性分析：原理、方法与应用[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2007
[4]B S Dillon.Human Reliability with Human Factors[M].Paragon BookS Inc, 1986:18-65
[5]Statt,D.A.The Concise Dictionary of phychology[M]. London:Routledge, 1990.
[6]Kuo C. Managing ship safety[M].LLP Reference Publishing.108-109
[7]Barry Kirwan.Human error identification in human reliability assessment[J]. Applied Ergonomics.1992,23(5):299-318
[8]Rothblum, A.M. et al. Human factors in incident inveestigation and analysis[A].2nd i nternational workshop on human factors in offshore operations (HFW2002).Houston, Texas,2002
[9]Reason J.A System approach to organizational error[J].Ergonomies.1995, 38(8):1708-1721
[10]Petersen, D. Human error reduction and safety management[M]. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold.1996
[11]邵辉,邢志祥,王凯全.安全行为原理[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2008
[12]Swain A D. Human analysis:need, status, trends and limitations[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Saefty,1990, (29):301-314
[13]Reason J. Hman Error[M].Cambrige University Press,1990
[14]Reason J. Managing the Risk of Organizational Accidents[M]. Ashgate Press, 1997
[15]Straeter O, etal. Human Reliability Analysis:Data Issues and Errors of Commission.Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2004,83(2):127-274
[16]Hollnagel E. Reliability analysis and operator modeling[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1996, (52):327-337
[17]Swain A D, Guttmann H E.Hand book of Human Relibaility Analysis with Emphasis on Nuelear Power Plant APPlieation[M].NUREG/CR-1278,1983
[18]Thomas E. McKee, Terje Lensberg. Genetic programming and rough sets:A hybrid approach to bankruptcy classification[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2002,138.
[19]Norman, D.A. Categorizing of action slips[J]. Psychological Review,1981, (88):1-14
[20]Rasmussen, J. Information processing and human-machine interaction[M]. 1986.North-Holland.New York.
[21]Holy J. Some insights from recent applications of HRA methods in PSA effort and plant operation feedback in Czech Republic. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2004,83(2):169-177
[22]Wichens,C.D.&Hollands,J.Engineering Psychology and Human Performance[J].2000. Prentice Hall INC., A Person Education Company. Pp. 583-624.
[23]黄祥瑞,沈祖培,高佳.人的动态认知可靠性的理论及应用研究[J].政策与管理,2001(11)：53-53
[24]中国船级社.综合安全评估(FSA)的应用和发展介绍[M].1999
[25]罗帆.航空灾害成因机理与预警系统研究[D].武汉理工大学博士学位论文,2004
[26]张力.概率安全评价中人因可靠性分析技术研究[D].湖南大学博士学位论文.2004
[27]张力,黄曙东,杨洪.岭澳核电站人因可靠性分析[M].北京：中国核工业音像出版社,2001
[28]张力,王以群,邓志良.复杂人—机系统中人员可靠性研究[M].国家自然科学基金资助项目研究成果年报.北京：科学出版社,1999
[29]贾刚.航空公司灾害预警管理的技术方法研究[D].武汉理工大学硕士学位论文,2007
[30]张力,黄曙东,黄祥瑞.基于THERP+HCR的人因事件分析模式及应用[J].核动力工程,2003,24(3)：272-276
[31]刘正江.船舶避碰过程中人的可靠性分析[D].大连海事大学博士学位论文.2004
[32]彭澎,黄曙东.组织管理因素对人因事故的作用与影响[J].人类工效学, 2001,7(2)：54-55
[33]张守健.工程建设安全生产行为研究[D].同济大学博士学位论文.2006
[34]樊红.船拍综合安全评估(FSA)方法研究[D].武汉理工大学博士学位论文.2004
[35]韩晓刚.复杂运输机械装备运行安全的研究[D].重庆大学博士学位论文.2006
[36]王超.交通灾害中的载运工具致灾机理及其预警管理系统研究[D].武汉理工大学博士学位论文.2002
[37]龙升照,黄端生等.人-机-环境系统工程理论及应用基础[M].北京：科学出版社,2004
[38]陈平.文明分岔、经济混沌和演化经济动力学[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2004
[39]钱学森,于景元,戴汝为.一个科学的新领域—开放的复杂巨系统及其方法论[J].自然杂志.1990,13(3)：3-10
[40]韦琦,金鸿章,姚绪梁,郭建.基于脆性的复杂系统崩溃的研究[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2003,24(2)：161—165
[41]韦琦.复杂系统脆性理论及其在危机控制中的应用[D].哈尔滨工程大学博士学位论文.2004
[42]孙东川,林福永.系统工程引论[M].北京：清华大学出版社.2004
[43]金星,洪延姬.系统可靠性与可用性分析方法[M].北京：国防工业出版社,2007
[44]邓铁军.结构工程施工系统可靠性理论方法及其应用的研究[D].湖南大学博士学位论文.2007
[45]宋保维.系统可靠性设计与分析[M].西安：西北工业大学出版社,1998
[46]Maio Cristiano,Schexnayder Cliff,Knutson Kraig et al.Probability Distribution Functions for Construction Simulation[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE,2000, 126(4):285 - 292
[47]赫尔曼.哈肯.协同学—大自然构成的奥秘[M].上海：上海世纪出版集团.2005
[48]王凯全,邵辉.事故理论与分析技术.北京：化学工业出版社.2004(3)：20-50页
[49]陈宝智.安全原理(第2版)[M].北京：冶金工业出版社,2002：8-25页
[50]罗云,程五一.现代安全管理[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2004：221-287 页
[51]姜金贵.火力发电厂事故的预警管理及虚拟仿真研究[D].哈尔滨工程大学博士学位论文.2008
[52]史波.煤矿企业应急管理系统构建与应急能力评价研究[D].哈尔滨工程大学博士学位论文.2008
[53]Smith T J. Macroergonomics of hazard management [A]. In Hendrick H W&Kleiner B M (Eds.), Macroergonomics:Theory, Methods, and Applications.Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc., Mahwah, New Jersey.2002: 199-221P
[54]Sherali H.D., S.Subramanian. Opportunity Cost-based Models for Traffic Incident Response Problem[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering.1999,125(3):176-185P
[55]Petersen.D.Techniques of safety Management System[J]. Proefesional Safety,2001(1):3P
[56]H.W.Henrich, D.Petersen, and N.Roose. Industrical Accident Prevention 5thed[M]. New York, McGraw-Hill,1980
[57]Scott Allen. Describe the different theories of accident causation[J]. BCM110-03,2002,(9):28P
[58]Hinze, Pannullo J. Safety:Function of Job Control [J].Journal of Construction Division.1978,104(2):241-249P
[59]芮明杰,杜锦根.人本管理[M].浙江：浙江人民出版社,1997
[60]Tom M.Mitchell.Machine Learning[M].Beijing:China Machine Press.2006
[61]Ian H.Wttten, Eibe Frank. Data Mining-Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques[M]. Beijing:China Machine Press.2006:1-2P
[62]王凯全,邵辉.事故理论与分析技术[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2004：20-50页
[63]苏义坤.基于危险点分析的施工企业安全生产过程研究[M].哈尔滨工业大学博士学位论文.2006：24P
[64]何学秋.安全工程学[M].北京：徐州：中国矿业大学出版社,2000：23-27页
[65]田水承,李红霞,王莉.三类危险源与煤矿事故防治[J].煤炭学报.2006,31(6)：706-710页
[66]陈宝智,王金波.安全管理[M].天津：天津大学出版社,1999：14-47页
[67]田水承.第三类危险源辨识与控制研究博士学位论文[D].北京：北京理工大学,2001
[68]李红霞,田水承,玛民根.从现代企业理论看煤矿安全管理问题[J].中国安全科学学报,1999,(5)：32-56页
[69]Hawkins,F.H.Human factors in flight[M].Aldershot,U.K.:Gower Technical Press,1987.
[70]谢放.基于Reason-SHEL Model对海事事故人为因素的分析[D].大连海事大学硕士学位论文,2007
[71]Reason J.A System Approach to orgnizational Error[J].Ergonomics,1995,38(8):1708-1721
[72]许正权.交互式安全管理理论与实务[M].北京：经济管理出版社,2007
[73]江涛.论本质安全[J].中国安全科学学报.2000,10(5)：1-8页
[74]Fridtjov Qwre.Role of the Man-machine Interface in Accident Management Strategies[J].Nuclear Engineering and Design.2001,(209):201-210P
[75]Michael O'Toole. The Relationship between Employees' Perceptions of Safety and Organizational Culture [J].Journal of Safety Research,2002,(33)：231-243P
[76]苗东升.系统科学大学讲稿[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社.2007
[77]H.Heinrich. Industrial accident prevent.4th. Ed, McGraw-hill, New York.1959:5687P
[78]许正权.复杂社会技术系统事故成因结构敏感性分析[J].中国安全科学学报2007,17(6)：56-62页
[79]王二平.从行为科学看复杂社会技术系统的安全控制[A].香山科学会议卞编科学前沿与未来(第五集)[C].北京：中国环境科学出版社,2002,16-26页
[80]Neal A,GriffinMA,Hart PM.The impact of organizational climate on safety climate and individual behavior[J]. Safety Science,2000,34(1-3):99-109P
[81]曹庆贵,孙春江,张殿镇.安全行为管理预警技术研究[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报.2003,4(22)：555-558页
[82]成思危.复杂科学与系统工程[J].管理科学学报.1999(2)：1-7
[83]田村坦之.系统工程[M].北京：科学出版社.2001
[84]金观涛,华国凡.控制论与科学方法论[M].北京：新星出版社.2005
[85]吴彤.复杂性概念研究及其意义[J].中国人民大学学报.2004,5
[86]李新春,宋学锋.煤矿本质安全管理体系研究[J].中国矿业大学学报(社会科学版).2008,(6)：65-69页
[87]许正权,宋学锋等.本质安全管理理论基础：本质安全的诠释[J].煤矿安全.2007,(9)：75-78页
[88]P.Webera, L. Jouffeb. Complex system reliability modeling with Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Networks(DOOBN)[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2006,91(2):149 162P
[89]许正权,宋学锋等.本质安全化管理思想及实证研究框架[J].中国安全科学学报.2006,16(12)：79-85页
[90]王钦方.企业本质安全化模型研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2005,15(12)：33-36页
[91]System Security Engineering Capability Maturity Model, Model Description Document. Version 2.0, April 16,1999. http://wwv.SSE-CMM.org
[92]System Security Engineering Capability Maturity Model Appraisal Method Version 2.0, April 16,1999. http://www.SSE-CMM.Org
[93]蔡皖东.系统安全工程能力成熟度模型(SSE-CMM)及其应用[J].西安电子科技大学出版社,2004：43-79页
[94]SSE-CMM Project. Systems Security Engineering Capability Maturity Model, Model Description (V 1.1).1997
[95]仰德标,明延峰.柴油机故障诊断研究综述[J].武汉造船,2000(2)：26-29
[96]Zurita V G, Ageren A. A new approach of the combustion process in diesel engines using vibration measurement. Part 1:Reconstruction of Cylinder Pressure from Vibration Measurement[J].International Journal of Acoustics and Vibration,2000
[97]王江萍.机械设备故障诊断技术及应用[M].西安：西北工业大学出版社,2001
[98]Jian-Da Wu, Chao-Qin Chuang. Fault diagnosis of internal combustion engines using visual dot patterns of acoustic and vibration signals[J], NDT&E International,2005.38(8):605-614P
[99]Zunmin Geng, Jin Chen and J.Barry Hul. Analysis of engine vibration and design of an applicable diagnosing approach [J].International Journal of Mechanical Sciences.2003,45(8):1391-1410P
[100]张学工.关于统计学习理论和支持向量机[J].自动化学报,2000,26
(1)：32-42页
[101]边肇祺,张学工.模式识别[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2000
[102]Vladinir N.Vapnik.统计学习理论的本质[M].张学工.北京：清华大学出版社,2000
[103]Vapnik V.Three Fundamental Concepts of the Capacity of Learning Machines[J]. Physica A,1993,(200):537-544
[104]Shen Q. Richard Jensen, Selecting informative features with fuzzy-rough sets and its application for complex systems monitoring [J]. Pattern Recognition,2004,37:1351-1363
[105]潘虹.基于非平衡数据的FOF成分基金选择[D].华南理工大学硕士学位论文.2008
[106]秦元庆,孙德宝,李宁,马强.基于粒子群算法的移动机器人路径规划[J].机器人,2004,26(3)：222-225.
[107]Souda T,Silva A and Neves A.Particle Swarm based Data Mining Algorithms for classification task[J].Parallel Computing,2004,(30):767-783
[108]盛进路,赵晓玲等.远洋船员的机体功能状态与适航性研究[J].中国安全科学学报.2008,167-171
[109]张宏林.人因工程学[M].北京：高等教育出版社.2005
[110]项英华.人类工效学[M].北京：北京理工大学出版社.2008
[111]刘志坚.功效学及其在管理中的应用[M].北京：科学出版社.2002
[112]B.S迪隆.人的可靠性.上海科学技术出版社[M].1990
[113]李朝霞,牛文娟.系统多层次灰色熵优选理论及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007(8)：49-55页
[114]谢武.基于熵的投影决策法在小水电项目方案择优中的应用[J].东北水利水电,2005(11)：1-5页
[115]刘思峰,郭天榜,党耀国.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京：科学出版社,1999
[116]傅立.灰色理论及其应用[M].北京：科学技术文献出版社,1992
[117]荣盘祥.复杂系统脆性理论及其理论框架的研究[D].哈尔滨工程大学博士学位论文2006
[118]WEI Qi, JIN Hongzhang, JI Ming. the Research on Brittle Catastrophe of Complex Giant System.IEEE Region 10 Technical Conference on Computers, Communications, Control and Power Engineering (TENCON'02) October 28-31,2002 Beijing, CHINA
[119]WEI Qi, JIN Hongzhang, GUO Jian, JI Ming. Analysis ON the Collapse of Complex System Based on The Brittle Characteristic.2002 International Symposium on Nonlinear Theory and its Applications(NOLTA 2002), October 7-11,2002
[120]韦琦,金鸿章,姚绪梁,郭健.基于脆性的复杂系统崩溃的研究[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报.2003,24(2)：161-165页
[121]Qi Wei, Hongzhang Jin, Jin Guo. Reserch on the Complex System Based on the Brittle Characteristic, Annual Conference of the Society of Instrument and Control Engineers.(SICE2003),2003,August4-6,Fukui, Japan
[122]吴红梅.复杂系统脆性理论在煤矿事故建模中的应用[D].哈尔滨工程大学硕士学位论文.2006
[123]Qi Wei,Hongzhang Jin, Jin Guo. Study on Complex System Based on the Brittleness.2003 IEEE International Conferenceon Systems, Man and Cybernetics (SMC2003), Octobers-8,2003, Hyatt Regency, Washington, D.C., USA
[124]李琦,金鸿章等.基于脆性熵的系统脆性研究[J].控制理论与应用2004,23(9)16-18页
[125]郭健,金鸿章,韦琦.基于脆性势函数对复杂系统的脆性分析[J].自动化技术与应用,2003,22(7)：5-7,21页
[126]Jin Hongzhang, Wei Qi,Guo Jian, Lin Deming Research On the SARS Based On the Brittleness of Complex System. Proc. of IEEE Inter.Automation Conf. Hong Kong. Dec.2003,13-15P
[127]李琦,金鸿章,林德明.复杂系统的脆性模型结构[J].系统工程,2005(1)：1-4页
[128]李琦,金鸿章,林德明.基于脆性嫡的系统脆性研究[J].自动化技术与应用.2004(9)：16-19页
[129]荣盘祥 金鸿章等.基于脆性联系熵的复杂系统特性的研究[J].电机与控制学报2005,9(2)：111-115页
[130]韦琦 金鸿章等.基于脆性的复杂系统崩溃的初探[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报.2003,23(2)：161-165页
[131]荣盘祥,王继尧等.复杂系统的脆性与系统演化分析[J].电机与控制学报.2004,8(2)：142-144页
[132]赵克勤.集对分析与嫡的研究.浙江大学学报[J].1992(2)：65-72页
[133]黄德才,赵克勤.用联系数描述和处理网络计划中的不确定性[J].系统工程学报.1999,14(2)：112-117页
[134]王霞,彭晓华.集对分析中差异度系数i的取值方法及应用[J].天津轻工业学院学报.2002,4：56-58页
[135]凌复华.突变理论及其应用[M].上海：上海交通大学出版社,1987
[136]李爽,宋学锋.矿企业本质安全文化：内涵·目标·内容·模式[J].中国矿业.2007,16(9)：33-35页
[137]陈红,谭慧等.煤矿重大事故预防的“行为栅栏”体系设计[J].经济管理2006,(15)：66-70页
[2]国家自然科学基金委员会管理科学部.管理科学发展战略—暨管理科学“十一五”优先资助领域[M].北京：科学出版社,2006
[3]何旭洪,黄祥瑞.工业系统中人的可靠性分析：原理、方法与应用[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2007
[4]B S Dillon.Human Reliability with Human Factors[M].Paragon BookS Inc, 1986:18-65
[5]Statt,D.A.The Concise Dictionary of phychology[M]. London:Routledge, 1990.
[6]Kuo C. Managing ship safety[M].LLP Reference Publishing.108-109
[7]Barry Kirwan.Human error identification in human reliability assessment[J]. Applied Ergonomics.1992,23(5):299-318
[8]Rothblum, A.M. et al. Human factors in incident inveestigation and analysis[A].2nd i nternational workshop on human factors in offshore operations (HFW2002).Houston, Texas,2002
[9]Reason J.A System approach to organizational error[J].Ergonomies.1995, 38(8):1708-1721
[10]Petersen, D. Human error reduction and safety management[M]. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold.1996
[11]邵辉,邢志祥,王凯全.安全行为原理[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2008
[12]Swain A D. Human analysis:need, status, trends and limitations[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Saefty,1990, (29):301-314
[13]Reason J. Hman Error[M].Cambrige University Press,1990
[14]Reason J. Managing the Risk of Organizational Accidents[M]. Ashgate Press, 1997
[15]Straeter O, etal. Human Reliability Analysis:Data Issues and Errors of Commission.Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2004,83(2):127-274
[16]Hollnagel E. Reliability analysis and operator modeling[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1996, (52):327-337
[17]Swain A D, Guttmann H E.Hand book of Human Relibaility Analysis with Emphasis on Nuelear Power Plant APPlieation[M].NUREG/CR-1278,1983
[18]Thomas E. McKee, Terje Lensberg. Genetic programming and rough sets:A hybrid approach to bankruptcy classification[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2002,138.
[19]Norman, D.A. Categorizing of action slips[J]. Psychological Review,1981, (88):1-14
[20]Rasmussen, J. Information processing and human-machine interaction[M]. 1986.North-Holland.New York.
[21]Holy J. Some insights from recent applications of HRA methods in PSA effort and plant operation feedback in Czech Republic. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2004,83(2):169-177
[22]Wichens,C.D.&Hollands,J.Engineering Psychology and Human Performance[J].2000. Prentice Hall INC., A Person Education Company. Pp. 583-624.
[23]黄祥瑞,沈祖培,高佳.人的动态认知可靠性的理论及应用研究[J].政策与管理,2001(11)：53-53
[24]中国船级社.综合安全评估(FSA)的应用和发展介绍[M].1999
[25]罗帆.航空灾害成因机理与预警系统研究[D].武汉理工大学博士学位论文,2004
[26]张力.概率安全评价中人因可靠性分析技术研究[D].湖南大学博士学位论文.2004
[27]张力,黄曙东,杨洪.岭澳核电站人因可靠性分析[M].北京：中国核工业音像出版社,2001
[28]张力,王以群,邓志良.复杂人—机系统中人员可靠性研究[M].国家自然科学基金资助项目研究成果年报.北京：科学出版社,1999
[29]贾刚.航空公司灾害预警管理的技术方法研究[D].武汉理工大学硕士学位论文,2007
[30]张力,黄曙东,黄祥瑞.基于THERP+HCR的人因事件分析模式及应用[J].核动力工程,2003,24(3)：272-276
[31]刘正江.船舶避碰过程中人的可靠性分析[D].大连海事大学博士学位论文.2004
[32]彭澎,黄曙东.组织管理因素对人因事故的作用与影响[J].人类工效学, 2001,7(2)：54-55
[33]张守健.工程建设安全生产行为研究[D].同济大学博士学位论文.2006
[34]樊红.船拍综合安全评估(FSA)方法研究[D].武汉理工大学博士学位论文.2004
[35]韩晓刚.复杂运输机械装备运行安全的研究[D].重庆大学博士学位论文.2006
[36]王超.交通灾害中的载运工具致灾机理及其预警管理系统研究[D].武汉理工大学博士学位论文.2002
[37]龙升照,黄端生等.人-机-环境系统工程理论及应用基础[M].北京：科学出版社,2004
[38]陈平.文明分岔、经济混沌和演化经济动力学[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2004
[39]钱学森,于景元,戴汝为.一个科学的新领域—开放的复杂巨系统及其方法论[J].自然杂志.1990,13(3)：3-10
[40]韦琦,金鸿章,姚绪梁,郭建.基于脆性的复杂系统崩溃的研究[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2003,24(2)：161—165
[41]韦琦.复杂系统脆性理论及其在危机控制中的应用[D].哈尔滨工程大学博士学位论文.2004
[42]孙东川,林福永.系统工程引论[M].北京：清华大学出版社.2004
[43]金星,洪延姬.系统可靠性与可用性分析方法[M].北京：国防工业出版社,2007
[44]邓铁军.结构工程施工系统可靠性理论方法及其应用的研究[D].湖南大学博士学位论文.2007
[45]宋保维.系统可靠性设计与分析[M].西安：西北工业大学出版社,1998
[46]Maio Cristiano,Schexnayder Cliff,Knutson Kraig et al.Probability Distribution Functions for Construction Simulation[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE,2000, 126(4):285 - 292
[47]赫尔曼.哈肯.协同学—大自然构成的奥秘[M].上海：上海世纪出版集团.2005
[48]王凯全,邵辉.事故理论与分析技术.北京：化学工业出版社.2004(3)：20-50页
[49]陈宝智.安全原理(第2版)[M].北京：冶金工业出版社,2002：8-25页
[50]罗云,程五一.现代安全管理[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2004：221-287 页
[51]姜金贵.火力发电厂事故的预警管理及虚拟仿真研究[D].哈尔滨工程大学博士学位论文.2008
[52]史波.煤矿企业应急管理系统构建与应急能力评价研究[D].哈尔滨工程大学博士学位论文.2008
[53]Smith T J. Macroergonomics of hazard management [A]. In Hendrick H W&Kleiner B M (Eds.), Macroergonomics:Theory, Methods, and Applications.Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc., Mahwah, New Jersey.2002: 199-221P
[54]Sherali H.D., S.Subramanian. Opportunity Cost-based Models for Traffic Incident Response Problem[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering.1999,125(3):176-185P
[55]Petersen.D.Techniques of safety Management System[J]. Proefesional Safety,2001(1):3P
[56]H.W.Henrich, D.Petersen, and N.Roose. Industrical Accident Prevention 5thed[M]. New York, McGraw-Hill,1980
[57]Scott Allen. Describe the different theories of accident causation[J]. BCM110-03,2002,(9):28P
[58]Hinze, Pannullo J. Safety:Function of Job Control [J].Journal of Construction Division.1978,104(2):241-249P
[59]芮明杰,杜锦根.人本管理[M].浙江：浙江人民出版社,1997
[60]Tom M.Mitchell.Machine Learning[M].Beijing:China Machine Press.2006
[61]Ian H.Wttten, Eibe Frank. Data Mining-Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques[M]. Beijing:China Machine Press.2006:1-2P
[62]王凯全,邵辉.事故理论与分析技术[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2004：20-50页
[63]苏义坤.基于危险点分析的施工企业安全生产过程研究[M].哈尔滨工业大学博士学位论文.2006：24P
[64]何学秋.安全工程学[M].北京：徐州：中国矿业大学出版社,2000：23-27页
[65]田水承,李红霞,王莉.三类危险源与煤矿事故防治[J].煤炭学报.2006,31(6)：706-710页
[66]陈宝智,王金波.安全管理[M].天津：天津大学出版社,1999：14-47页
[67]田水承.第三类危险源辨识与控制研究博士学位论文[D].北京：北京理工大学,2001
[68]李红霞,田水承,玛民根.从现代企业理论看煤矿安全管理问题[J].中国安全科学学报,1999,(5)：32-56页
[69]Hawkins,F.H.Human factors in flight[M].Aldershot,U.K.:Gower Technical Press,1987.
[70]谢放.基于Reason-SHEL Model对海事事故人为因素的分析[D].大连海事大学硕士学位论文,2007
[71]Reason J.A System Approach to orgnizational Error[J].Ergonomics,1995,38(8):1708-1721
[72]许正权.交互式安全管理理论与实务[M].北京：经济管理出版社,2007
[73]江涛.论本质安全[J].中国安全科学学报.2000,10(5)：1-8页
[74]Fridtjov Qwre.Role of the Man-machine Interface in Accident Management Strategies[J].Nuclear Engineering and Design.2001,(209):201-210P
[75]Michael O'Toole. The Relationship between Employees' Perceptions of Safety and Organizational Culture [J].Journal of Safety Research,2002,(33)：231-243P
[76]苗东升.系统科学大学讲稿[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社.2007
[77]H.Heinrich. Industrial accident prevent.4th. Ed, McGraw-hill, New York.1959:5687P
[78]许正权.复杂社会技术系统事故成因结构敏感性分析[J].中国安全科学学报2007,17(6)：56-62页
[79]王二平.从行为科学看复杂社会技术系统的安全控制[A].香山科学会议卞编科学前沿与未来(第五集)[C].北京：中国环境科学出版社,2002,16-26页
[80]Neal A,GriffinMA,Hart PM.The impact of organizational climate on safety climate and individual behavior[J]. Safety Science,2000,34(1-3):99-109P
[81]曹庆贵,孙春江,张殿镇.安全行为管理预警技术研究[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报.2003,4(22)：555-558页
[82]成思危.复杂科学与系统工程[J].管理科学学报.1999(2)：1-7
[83]田村坦之.系统工程[M].北京：科学出版社.2001
[84]金观涛,华国凡.控制论与科学方法论[M].北京：新星出版社.2005
[85]吴彤.复杂性概念研究及其意义[J].中国人民大学学报.2004,5
[86]李新春,宋学锋.煤矿本质安全管理体系研究[J].中国矿业大学学报(社会科学版).2008,(6)：65-69页
[87]许正权,宋学锋等.本质安全管理理论基础：本质安全的诠释[J].煤矿安全.2007,(9)：75-78页
[88]P.Webera, L. Jouffeb. Complex system reliability modeling with Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Networks(DOOBN)[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2006,91(2):149 162P
[89]许正权,宋学锋等.本质安全化管理思想及实证研究框架[J].中国安全科学学报.2006,16(12)：79-85页
[90]王钦方.企业本质安全化模型研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2005,15(12)：33-36页
[91]System Security Engineering Capability Maturity Model, Model Description Document. Version 2.0, April 16,1999. http://wwv.SSE-CMM.org
[92]System Security Engineering Capability Maturity Model Appraisal Method Version 2.0, April 16,1999. http://www.SSE-CMM.Org
[93]蔡皖东.系统安全工程能力成熟度模型(SSE-CMM)及其应用[J].西安电子科技大学出版社,2004：43-79页
[94]SSE-CMM Project. Systems Security Engineering Capability Maturity Model, Model Description (V 1.1).1997
[95]仰德标,明延峰.柴油机故障诊断研究综述[J].武汉造船,2000(2)：26-29
[96]Zurita V G, Ageren A. A new approach of the combustion process in diesel engines using vibration measurement. Part 1:Reconstruction of Cylinder Pressure from Vibration Measurement[J].International Journal of Acoustics and Vibration,2000
[97]王江萍.机械设备故障诊断技术及应用[M].西安：西北工业大学出版社,2001
[98]Jian-Da Wu, Chao-Qin Chuang. Fault diagnosis of internal combustion engines using visual dot patterns of acoustic and vibration signals[J], NDT&E International,2005.38(8):605-614P
[99]Zunmin Geng, Jin Chen and J.Barry Hul. Analysis of engine vibration and design of an applicable diagnosing approach [J].International Journal of Mechanical Sciences.2003,45(8):1391-1410P
[100]张学工.关于统计学习理论和支持向量机[J].自动化学报,2000,26
(1)：32-42页
[101]边肇祺,张学工.模式识别[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2000
[102]Vladinir N.Vapnik.统计学习理论的本质[M].张学工.北京：清华大学出版社,2000
[103]Vapnik V.Three Fundamental Concepts of the Capacity of Learning Machines[J]. Physica A,1993,(200):537-544
[104]Shen Q. Richard Jensen, Selecting informative features with fuzzy-rough sets and its application for complex systems monitoring [J]. Pattern Recognition,2004,37:1351-1363
[105]潘虹.基于非平衡数据的FOF成分基金选择[D].华南理工大学硕士学位论文.2008
[106]秦元庆,孙德宝,李宁,马强.基于粒子群算法的移动机器人路径规划[J].机器人,2004,26(3)：222-225.
[107]Souda T,Silva A and Neves A.Particle Swarm based Data Mining Algorithms for classification task[J].Parallel Computing,2004,(30):767-783
[108]盛进路,赵晓玲等.远洋船员的机体功能状态与适航性研究[J].中国安全科学学报.2008,167-171
[109]张宏林.人因工程学[M].北京：高等教育出版社.2005
[110]项英华.人类工效学[M].北京：北京理工大学出版社.2008
[111]刘志坚.功效学及其在管理中的应用[M].北京：科学出版社.2002
[112]B.S迪隆.人的可靠性.上海科学技术出版社[M].1990
[113]李朝霞,牛文娟.系统多层次灰色熵优选理论及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007(8)：49-55页
[114]谢武.基于熵的投影决策法在小水电项目方案择优中的应用[J].东北水利水电,2005(11)：1-5页
[115]刘思峰,郭天榜,党耀国.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京：科学出版社,1999
[116]傅立.灰色理论及其应用[M].北京：科学技术文献出版社,1992
[117]荣盘祥.复杂系统脆性理论及其理论框架的研究[D].哈尔滨工程大学博士学位论文2006
[118]WEI Qi, JIN Hongzhang, JI Ming. the Research on Brittle Catastrophe of Complex Giant System.IEEE Region 10 Technical Conference on Computers, Communications, Control and Power Engineering (TENCON'02) October 28-31,2002 Beijing, CHINA
[119]WEI Qi, JIN Hongzhang, GUO Jian, JI Ming. Analysis ON the Collapse of Complex System Based on The Brittle Characteristic.2002 International Symposium on Nonlinear Theory and its Applications(NOLTA 2002), October 7-11,2002
[120]韦琦,金鸿章,姚绪梁,郭健.基于脆性的复杂系统崩溃的研究[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报.2003,24(2)：161-165页
[121]Qi Wei, Hongzhang Jin, Jin Guo. Reserch on the Complex System Based on the Brittle Characteristic, Annual Conference of the Society of Instrument and Control Engineers.(SICE2003),2003,August4-6,Fukui, Japan
[122]吴红梅.复杂系统脆性理论在煤矿事故建模中的应用[D].哈尔滨工程大学硕士学位论文.2006
[123]Qi Wei,Hongzhang Jin, Jin Guo. Study on Complex System Based on the Brittleness.2003 IEEE International Conferenceon Systems, Man and Cybernetics (SMC2003), Octobers-8,2003, Hyatt Regency, Washington, D.C., USA
[124]李琦,金鸿章等.基于脆性熵的系统脆性研究[J].控制理论与应用2004,23(9)16-18页
[125]郭健,金鸿章,韦琦.基于脆性势函数对复杂系统的脆性分析[J].自动化技术与应用,2003,22(7)：5-7,21页
[126]Jin Hongzhang, Wei Qi,Guo Jian, Lin Deming Research On the SARS Based On the Brittleness of Complex System. Proc. of IEEE Inter.Automation Conf. Hong Kong. Dec.2003,13-15P
[127]李琦,金鸿章,林德明.复杂系统的脆性模型结构[J].系统工程,2005(1)：1-4页
[128]李琦,金鸿章,林德明.基于脆性嫡的系统脆性研究[J].自动化技术与应用.2004(9)：16-19页
[129]荣盘祥 金鸿章等.基于脆性联系熵的复杂系统特性的研究[J].电机与控制学报2005,9(2)：111-115页
[130]韦琦 金鸿章等.基于脆性的复杂系统崩溃的初探[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报.2003,23(2)：161-165页
[131]荣盘祥,王继尧等.复杂系统的脆性与系统演化分析[J].电机与控制学报.2004,8(2)：142-144页
[132]赵克勤.集对分析与嫡的研究.浙江大学学报[J].1992(2)：65-72页
[133]黄德才,赵克勤.用联系数描述和处理网络计划中的不确定性[J].系统工程学报.1999,14(2)：112-117页
[134]王霞,彭晓华.集对分析中差异度系数i的取值方法及应用[J].天津轻工业学院学报.2002,4：56-58页
[135]凌复华.突变理论及其应用[M].上海：上海交通大学出版社,1987
[136]李爽,宋学锋.矿企业本质安全文化：内涵·目标·内容·模式[J].中国矿业.2007,16(9)：33-35页
[137]陈红,谭慧等.煤矿重大事故预防的“行为栅栏”体系设计[J].经济管理2006,(15)：66-70页