我国公共基础设施投资效应研究
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摘要
自改革开放以来,我国经济经历了高速的增长,其中公共基础设施投资功不可没。然而中国地域辽阔,随着公共投资规模的不断扩张,在经济建设取得巨大成就的背后,公共基础设施空间结构失衡问题也日渐凸显。不同地区在投资力度和速度上的差异导致了不同程度的“两极分化”现象,使公共基础设施建设投资分布呈现出十分明显的区域特征,总体来看,东部基础设施较发达,基础设施资本存量较大,中部次之,西部较为薄弱,由此公共基础设施投资对地区经济活动的影响也存在差异,对有些地区促进作用大,而对有些地区作用甚微甚至对经济发展有抑制作用。公共基础设施发展中的空间结构性矛盾不仅会阻碍投资总体效益的发挥,制约我国区域经济的均衡发展和地区空间结构的优化,而且作为重要的基本公共服务项目,公共基础设施不均等的供给也容易引发各类民生问题,增加社会不安定因素,阻碍和谐社会建设。
在公共经济学领域,对公共基础设施投资的经济增长效应研究得较多,而对就业、私人投资等经济活动效应的相关研究较少；对公共基础设施投资国家总量层面经济效应研究的较多,而基于地区层面经济效应的比较以及区域间溢出效应的研究较少。因此,有必要针对地区层面公共基础设施投资对产出、就业、私人投资等经济活动的作用机制及影响效果作系统性研究,更为明确地认识公共基础设施在经济发展中的作用。
本文就是针对我国当前经济现状与公共基础设施投资研究缺陷等问题展开分析,力求回答以下几个问题：改革开放以来,我国公共基础设施投资总体发展状况如何?不同地区公共基础设施投资水平以及投资增长状况,存在怎样的差异?公共基础设施投资对产出、就业、私人投资等经济活动有怎样的作用机制?我国公共基础设施投资是否存在省区间溢出效应?现有的投资水平对各省区产出、就业、私人投资等经济活动的作用效果如何?公共基础设施投资的经济效应在各省区的分布情况以及分布是否均衡?在我国,影响公共基础设施投资分布不均以及对不同地区作用效果不同的因素有哪些?
基础设施投资的经济效应问题,是理论和经验研究的重要内容,一直受到了学术界和实践部门的高度关注。在中国扩大内需以投资公共基础设施建设为重点的大背景下,厘清我国地区层面公共基础设施投资行为和效应,比较不同地区间公共基础设施投资的差异,具有深刻的必要性和现实意义。
文章共7章,除第1章引言以外,第2-3章是本文的研究基础,第4-6章分别是公共基础设施投资效应的理论分析、实证分析和效应差异原因分析,第7章是全文结论和政策建议,具体而言：
第1章为引言。本章提出研究问题的背景、意义,对本研究中所使用的基本概念加以界定,并对所运用的研究方法作了说明,对研究内容进行了概括。
第2章为文献综述。本章从理论研究和实证分析两个方面针对国内外公共基础设施投资研究领域具有代表性的文献进行论述和评价。
第3章为我国公共基础设施投资概况。本章的目的是用数据描述我国近30年公共基础设施投资领域的基本事实。首先简要地描述我国1981-2010年公共基础设施投资总体投资数额和基础设施存量发展情况,通过纵向比较,发现投资总量规模、各类基础设施存量一直呈上升趋势,公共基础设施领域投资数额占全社会固定资产投资和GDP的比重逐年提高。其次,通过计算各省区公共基础设施投资流量和存量数据分析公共基础设施投资的区域结构,认为我国公共基础设施投资在经济发达的东部地区省份聚集度高,在中、西部地区较低。最后,运用偏离一—份额分析法,考察我国2001-2010年间各地区公共基础设施投资增长情况,分析发现我国公共基础设施投资增速普遍滞后于其它行业的平均增速,具有明显的地域特征,总体呈现出先东后中西的发展特征,东部地区公共基础设施投资发展水平远远高于其他地区。
第4章为公共基础设施投资效应的理论分析。本章借鉴西方经济学者有关投资、基础设施、经济增长、就业等方面的理论研究,就公共基础设施投资对经济增长(产出)、就业、私人投资的影响机制与理论模型展开分析推理。本章是全文研究的理论基础,为下文进行我国省级公共基础设施投资效应分析提供理论依据。
第5章为我国省级公共基础设施投资效应与省际分布,是本研究的重点。本章基于我国1990-2010年28个省(市、自治区)的数据,运用VAR模型进行实证研究。首先,由于公共基础设施投资具有外溢性和网络效应,因此分析我国省级公共基础设施投资效应时,应先验证我国区域外公共基础设施投资对本省区经济活动是否有影响,即我国省级公共基础设施投资是否存在溢出效应。结果表明：在我国,公共基础设施投资在省际区域间存在溢出效应,多数地区的产出不仅得益于本地区公共基础设施投资,由于存在溢出效应还得益于其他地区公共基础设施投资。其次,构建以产出、就业、私人投资、本地区公共基础设施投资和区域外公共基础设施投资为变量的VAR模型,通过脉冲响应,分析各省区产出、就业和私人投资受本地区和区域外公共基础设施投资的影响效果。实证结果表明：多数地区的经济活动受到了本地区和区域外公共基础设施投资的挤入作用；从全国范围看,无论从私人投资、就业还是产出视角分析,区域外公共基础设施投资溢出效应的作用远远小于本地区公共基础设施投资。最后,根据每个省区相对经济份额测算了公共基础设施投资效应的区域分布。研究发现公共基础设施投资效应在地区间分布并不均衡且差异较大。总体上看,东部地区受到公共基础设施投资的带动作用最强。
第6章为我国公共基础设施投资效应区域差异的原因探析。本章首先总结了我国省级公共基础设施投资效应的现状,发现东部地区无论在效应获得的绝对值还是在效应分布的相对值方面均领先于中、西部地区,并指出公共基础设施投资水平的区域差异是引起投资效应差异的主要原因,进而构建公共基础设施投资内生影响因素的理论模型,针对引起省际公共基础设施投资差异化配置的因素进行定量分解,结果表明收入水平、公共服务环境和公共服务质量的差异是引起省际公共基础设施投资差异的重要因素。通过找到影响省际公共基础设施投资差异化配置的内生因素推断引起公共基础投资效应区域差异的内生原因,以便有针对性地提出优化我国公共基础设施投资效应的政策建议。
第7章,为结论和建议。主要对全文的主要结论进行了总结,并提出了相应的政策建议。具体优化方向：一是继续加大公共基础设施投资力度；二是深化投资区域结构调整,侧重对中西部地区的投资。
本文的创新主要体现研究视角和研究方法上。
研究视角的创新具体体现在：
第一,本文第3章在对我国近30年间公共基础设施投资总体流量和存量计算分析的基础上,以东、中、西部三大区域以及31个省(直辖市、自治区)级区域为研究视角,比较分析各区域公共基础设施投资在投资流量、资本存量、投资增速等3个方面的发展情况和存在差异。与现有文献相比,本文将分析视角推进到省级行政单位,将地区间公共基础设施投资差异性的比较指标细化为投资流量、资本存量和投资增速。本文的研究在一定程度上填补了国内该领域研究的不足。
第二,本文第5章基于中国1990-2010年28个省(市、自治区)的数据,实证分析省级公共基础设施投资对产出、就业、私人投资等经济活动的影响,设立的VAR模型不仅考虑了本地区公共基础设施投资的作用也考虑了区域外公共基础设施投资对本地区的溢出效应,通过各地区公共基础设施投资产生的区域效应比较不同地区公共基础设施投资的作用效果,试图发现哪些地区受益较多、哪些地区受益较少,并且测算省级公共基础设施投资的区域效应在各地区的分布情况时考虑到了区域经济状况的异质性。从现有文献看,国内学者的研究存在以下两点不足：一是在分析基础设施的区域影响时缺乏省级区域层面公共基础设施投资对产出、就业、私人投资等经济活动影响的量化分析；二是在考察经济效应的区域分布时忽略了异质性,未从各地区相对经济状况角度展开研究。本文的尝试对于推进公共基础设施投资效应进一步研究具有较强的理论和实证价值。
研究方法的创新具体表现在：
第一,本文第3章第2节首次运用偏离——份额分析法,考察我国2001-2010年间各地区公共基础设施投资增长情况,分析发现我国公共基础设施投资增速普遍滞后于其它行业的平均增速,具有明显的地域和时间特征：呈现出由东至西的发展特征,即东部地区公共基础设施投资发展水平远远高于其他地区；2002-2007年间东部地区公共基础设施投资发展水平远远高于其他地区,但是2007年之后,此格局被打破,中、西部地区基础设施进入了快速发展阶段。
第二,本文第6章第4节通过构建公共基础设施投资内生影响因素的理论模型,采用Shapley值分解法,对影响省际公共基础设施投资差异的内生因素进行实证分解,结果表明收入水平、公共服务环境和公共服务质量的差异是引起省际公共基础设施投资差异的重要因素。
Since adopted the policy of reform and opening-up, China has been experiencing fast economic expanding and public infrastructure investment has made undeniable contributions to our country's economy. However, China covers a large territory so the economic development in China (mainland) is not unproblematic. With the expansion of public investment scales and growing extension of investment levels, the issue about unbalanced spatial structure of public infrastructure investment is gradually highlighted. The differences in investment level and growth rate among different regions lead to the different degrees of "polarization" phenomenon. Overall, the distribution of public infrastructure investment demonstrates the obvious regional characteristic:the eastern region is strong, the central region is nest, the western region is weak. There are also different effects of public infrastructure investment on regional economic activity, and on one hand, this has further boosted economic growth in some regions but has marginal effect or even negative effect in some regions on the other hand. These differences are basically consistent with those of economic development in China's eastern, central and western regions. The regional structure contradiction of public infrastructure investment therefore not only prevents function display of public investment but also restricts the economic balanced development among regions. What's more, as an important basic public service item, if the supply of public infrastructure is unequally distributed, many kinds of livelihood issues and factors leading to social instability will emerge. Hence it will badly hinder the development of economy and the construction of a harmonious society.
In the area of public economics, scholars usually put emphasis on the research of the public infrastructure investment effect on economic growth but neglect concern with the effect on employment and private investment; usually pay more attention to the effect of national level but pay less attention to the effect of regional level and regional spillover effect. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out a systematically study on the mechanism and effect of China's regional-level public infrastructure investment on output, private investment and employment, which will help us to have a clearer understanding of the role of public infrastructure in economic development.
This paper is aimed at our country's current economic situation and the research defects of public infrastructure investment problem to analyze the following questions: How has the overall development of public infrastructure in China been since the reform and opening-up? How are the differences of investment level and growth status among different regions? What is the mechanism of action about public infrastructure investment to output, employment and private investment? Is there a spillover effect of public infrastructure investment among provinces? How are the effects of public infrastructure investment on provincial output, employment and private investment? What is the effects distribution and does the distribution cause inequalities among provinces? What are the factors that affect the distribution of public infrastructure investment's level and effects?
The economic effect of infrastructure investment is one of the important contents of economic theoretical and empirical analysis and has gained great attention from scholars and practical field. It is of great significance that clarifying and comparing the behavior and effect of regional level public infrastructure investment in China in the context of boosting domestic demand. This paper includes7chapters, except the first chapter, the second and third chapter are analysis bases; the fourth, fifth and sixth chapter are research on theoretical analysis, empirical analysis and reasons for the differences analysis of public infrastructure investment effect separately; the seventh chapter is the part of the conclusions and policy recommendations of this paper; specifically: Chapter1is introduction, which mainly presents research problem origins, research methods and ideas, defining the related concepts.
Chapter2is literature review, which clears up theoretical and empirical researches on public infrastructure investment both at home and abroad.
Chapter3is an overview of public infrastructure investment in China, which is designed to objectively describe the basic facts of public infrastructure investment since the reform and opening-up in China by using a series of data. Firstly, this chapter briefly describes the total amount of public infrastructure investment and the development of infrastructure stock from1981to2010. The data shows that the total amount of investment and all kinds of infrastructure stock all have a rising trend, the the percentages of public infrastructure investment to total investment in fixed assets and to GDP both improve constantly year by year. Secondly, based on the calculating of provincial data, it is found that public infrastructure investment is concentrated highly in eastern provinces, however, lowly in central and western provinces. Finally, based on the shift-share analysis, this paper examines the growth situation of regional public infrastructure investment by using the2001-2010data of the31provinces in China. The results show that:the growth speed of public infrastructure investment generally lags behind the average growth speed of other industries in China and demonstrates time and regional characteristics obviously, that is the development sequence from the east regions to the west.
Chapter4is the theoretical analysis for public infrastructure investment effect, which analyzes and infers how does public infrastructure investment affect economic growth, employment and private investment through applying to the basic theory of the investment, infrastructure, output and employment and the beneficial thoughts of western scholars. This Chapter provides theoretical basis for following text.
Chapter5is regional effects of public infrastructure investment and provincial distribution, which is the focus of the study. This paper illustrates the test result of the regional effects of China's provincial-level public infrastructure investment on private investment, employment and output and quantifies the provincial distribution of the effects by using the1990—2010time series data of28provinces in China and also by creating VAR models. Empirical results show that:there is a spillover effect of provincial public infrastructure investment in China; public infrastructure investment has been a powerful instrument to promote economic performance in most regions; at the aggregate level, direct effects from the local public infrastructure investment are more important than the spillover effects from public infrastructure investment elsewhere; in addition, the effects are distributed unbalanced across regions so that the eastern regions benefit the most while the central and western regions get less obviously.
Chapter6is the reasons that cause the regional differences of public infrastructure investment effect. This chapter firstly summarizes the status of China's provincial public infrastructure investment effect, and it turns out that the eastern region leads in the central and western regions in terms of the absolute value of effect data or in the relative value of the effect distribution. Then it points out that the public infrastructure investment effect is mainly caused by public infrastructure investment differentiated configuration. And then I constructed a theoretical model of endogenous factors affecting public infrastructure investment. I made a quantitative decomposition for factors affecting differentiated configuration of the provincial public infrastructure investment, and the results show that the income level, the public service environment and the public services quality are important factors of the inter-provincial public infrastructure investment. The endogenous factors of the differentiated configuration of the inter-provincial public infrastructure investment can infer endogenous reasons for regional public infrastructure investment effect, so that I put forward with targeted policy recommendations to optimize the public infrastructure investment effect in China.
Chapter7is the conclusions and suggestions.This part is used for summarizing the main conclusions of full dissertation as well as bringing forward related policy suggestions. The policy suggestions contain:encouraging high public infrastructure investment rates and restructuring investment regions.
Innovations of this dissertation are mainly reflected in research perspective and research method.
Innovations of research perspective mainly embody on:
Firstly, in Chapter3, on the basis of the analysis of public infrastructure investment's overall flows and stocks for the past30years in China, the research perspective focuses on eastern, central and western regions and31provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) level, and this paper comparatively analyzes the regional public infrastructure investment in the development of the three aspects of the investment flows, capital stock, investment growth, and there are differences. The results show that:the general public infrastructure investment in the economically developed eastern part of the province gathered high, lower in the central and western regions, however, the central and western regions public infrastructure overall increased in the proportion of investment of the past10years. Compared with the existing literature, this paper puts the analysis perspective advanced to the provincial-level administrative units. This study fills a certain extent the lack of research in this field.
Secondly, most literatures studying on the effect of public investment or infrastructure investment are based on the perspective of eastern, central and western regions in China and analyze different regional effects of public infrastructure investment on regional economic activity. However, this dissertation put research perspective on the effects of China's provincial-level public infrastructure investment on private investment, employment and output and quantifies the provincial distribution of the effects by using the1990—2010time series data of28provinces in China and also by creating VAR models.
Innovations of research method mainly embody on:
Firstly, based on the shift-share analysis, this dissertation examines the growth situation of regional public infrastructure investment by using the2001-2010data of the31provinces in China. The results show that:the growth speed of public infrastructure investment generally lags behind the average growth speed of other industries in China and demonstrates time and regional characteristics obviously, that is the development sequence from the east regions to the west; the industrial mix effect is the main factor of deciding the level of public infrastructure investment in every province.
Secondly, with a theoretical model of public infrastructure investment's endogenous factors, the dissertation analyzes factors affecting public infrastructure investment based on the decomposition method of Shapley Value. The study shows that disparities of provincial public infrastructure investment are mainly due to differences of revenues, environment of public services and quality of public services. Therefore, narrowing income disparities, improving the quality
在公共经济学领域,对公共基础设施投资的经济增长效应研究得较多,而对就业、私人投资等经济活动效应的相关研究较少；对公共基础设施投资国家总量层面经济效应研究的较多,而基于地区层面经济效应的比较以及区域间溢出效应的研究较少。因此,有必要针对地区层面公共基础设施投资对产出、就业、私人投资等经济活动的作用机制及影响效果作系统性研究,更为明确地认识公共基础设施在经济发展中的作用。
本文就是针对我国当前经济现状与公共基础设施投资研究缺陷等问题展开分析,力求回答以下几个问题：改革开放以来,我国公共基础设施投资总体发展状况如何?不同地区公共基础设施投资水平以及投资增长状况,存在怎样的差异?公共基础设施投资对产出、就业、私人投资等经济活动有怎样的作用机制?我国公共基础设施投资是否存在省区间溢出效应?现有的投资水平对各省区产出、就业、私人投资等经济活动的作用效果如何?公共基础设施投资的经济效应在各省区的分布情况以及分布是否均衡?在我国,影响公共基础设施投资分布不均以及对不同地区作用效果不同的因素有哪些?
基础设施投资的经济效应问题,是理论和经验研究的重要内容,一直受到了学术界和实践部门的高度关注。在中国扩大内需以投资公共基础设施建设为重点的大背景下,厘清我国地区层面公共基础设施投资行为和效应,比较不同地区间公共基础设施投资的差异,具有深刻的必要性和现实意义。
文章共7章,除第1章引言以外,第2-3章是本文的研究基础,第4-6章分别是公共基础设施投资效应的理论分析、实证分析和效应差异原因分析,第7章是全文结论和政策建议,具体而言：
第1章为引言。本章提出研究问题的背景、意义,对本研究中所使用的基本概念加以界定,并对所运用的研究方法作了说明,对研究内容进行了概括。
第2章为文献综述。本章从理论研究和实证分析两个方面针对国内外公共基础设施投资研究领域具有代表性的文献进行论述和评价。
第3章为我国公共基础设施投资概况。本章的目的是用数据描述我国近30年公共基础设施投资领域的基本事实。首先简要地描述我国1981-2010年公共基础设施投资总体投资数额和基础设施存量发展情况,通过纵向比较,发现投资总量规模、各类基础设施存量一直呈上升趋势,公共基础设施领域投资数额占全社会固定资产投资和GDP的比重逐年提高。其次,通过计算各省区公共基础设施投资流量和存量数据分析公共基础设施投资的区域结构,认为我国公共基础设施投资在经济发达的东部地区省份聚集度高,在中、西部地区较低。最后,运用偏离一—份额分析法,考察我国2001-2010年间各地区公共基础设施投资增长情况,分析发现我国公共基础设施投资增速普遍滞后于其它行业的平均增速,具有明显的地域特征,总体呈现出先东后中西的发展特征,东部地区公共基础设施投资发展水平远远高于其他地区。
第4章为公共基础设施投资效应的理论分析。本章借鉴西方经济学者有关投资、基础设施、经济增长、就业等方面的理论研究,就公共基础设施投资对经济增长(产出)、就业、私人投资的影响机制与理论模型展开分析推理。本章是全文研究的理论基础,为下文进行我国省级公共基础设施投资效应分析提供理论依据。
第5章为我国省级公共基础设施投资效应与省际分布,是本研究的重点。本章基于我国1990-2010年28个省(市、自治区)的数据,运用VAR模型进行实证研究。首先,由于公共基础设施投资具有外溢性和网络效应,因此分析我国省级公共基础设施投资效应时,应先验证我国区域外公共基础设施投资对本省区经济活动是否有影响,即我国省级公共基础设施投资是否存在溢出效应。结果表明：在我国,公共基础设施投资在省际区域间存在溢出效应,多数地区的产出不仅得益于本地区公共基础设施投资,由于存在溢出效应还得益于其他地区公共基础设施投资。其次,构建以产出、就业、私人投资、本地区公共基础设施投资和区域外公共基础设施投资为变量的VAR模型,通过脉冲响应,分析各省区产出、就业和私人投资受本地区和区域外公共基础设施投资的影响效果。实证结果表明：多数地区的经济活动受到了本地区和区域外公共基础设施投资的挤入作用；从全国范围看,无论从私人投资、就业还是产出视角分析,区域外公共基础设施投资溢出效应的作用远远小于本地区公共基础设施投资。最后,根据每个省区相对经济份额测算了公共基础设施投资效应的区域分布。研究发现公共基础设施投资效应在地区间分布并不均衡且差异较大。总体上看,东部地区受到公共基础设施投资的带动作用最强。
第6章为我国公共基础设施投资效应区域差异的原因探析。本章首先总结了我国省级公共基础设施投资效应的现状,发现东部地区无论在效应获得的绝对值还是在效应分布的相对值方面均领先于中、西部地区,并指出公共基础设施投资水平的区域差异是引起投资效应差异的主要原因,进而构建公共基础设施投资内生影响因素的理论模型,针对引起省际公共基础设施投资差异化配置的因素进行定量分解,结果表明收入水平、公共服务环境和公共服务质量的差异是引起省际公共基础设施投资差异的重要因素。通过找到影响省际公共基础设施投资差异化配置的内生因素推断引起公共基础投资效应区域差异的内生原因,以便有针对性地提出优化我国公共基础设施投资效应的政策建议。
第7章,为结论和建议。主要对全文的主要结论进行了总结,并提出了相应的政策建议。具体优化方向：一是继续加大公共基础设施投资力度；二是深化投资区域结构调整,侧重对中西部地区的投资。
本文的创新主要体现研究视角和研究方法上。
研究视角的创新具体体现在：
第一,本文第3章在对我国近30年间公共基础设施投资总体流量和存量计算分析的基础上,以东、中、西部三大区域以及31个省(直辖市、自治区)级区域为研究视角,比较分析各区域公共基础设施投资在投资流量、资本存量、投资增速等3个方面的发展情况和存在差异。与现有文献相比,本文将分析视角推进到省级行政单位,将地区间公共基础设施投资差异性的比较指标细化为投资流量、资本存量和投资增速。本文的研究在一定程度上填补了国内该领域研究的不足。
第二,本文第5章基于中国1990-2010年28个省(市、自治区)的数据,实证分析省级公共基础设施投资对产出、就业、私人投资等经济活动的影响,设立的VAR模型不仅考虑了本地区公共基础设施投资的作用也考虑了区域外公共基础设施投资对本地区的溢出效应,通过各地区公共基础设施投资产生的区域效应比较不同地区公共基础设施投资的作用效果,试图发现哪些地区受益较多、哪些地区受益较少,并且测算省级公共基础设施投资的区域效应在各地区的分布情况时考虑到了区域经济状况的异质性。从现有文献看,国内学者的研究存在以下两点不足：一是在分析基础设施的区域影响时缺乏省级区域层面公共基础设施投资对产出、就业、私人投资等经济活动影响的量化分析；二是在考察经济效应的区域分布时忽略了异质性,未从各地区相对经济状况角度展开研究。本文的尝试对于推进公共基础设施投资效应进一步研究具有较强的理论和实证价值。
研究方法的创新具体表现在：
第一,本文第3章第2节首次运用偏离——份额分析法,考察我国2001-2010年间各地区公共基础设施投资增长情况,分析发现我国公共基础设施投资增速普遍滞后于其它行业的平均增速,具有明显的地域和时间特征：呈现出由东至西的发展特征,即东部地区公共基础设施投资发展水平远远高于其他地区；2002-2007年间东部地区公共基础设施投资发展水平远远高于其他地区,但是2007年之后,此格局被打破,中、西部地区基础设施进入了快速发展阶段。
第二,本文第6章第4节通过构建公共基础设施投资内生影响因素的理论模型,采用Shapley值分解法,对影响省际公共基础设施投资差异的内生因素进行实证分解,结果表明收入水平、公共服务环境和公共服务质量的差异是引起省际公共基础设施投资差异的重要因素。
Since adopted the policy of reform and opening-up, China has been experiencing fast economic expanding and public infrastructure investment has made undeniable contributions to our country's economy. However, China covers a large territory so the economic development in China (mainland) is not unproblematic. With the expansion of public investment scales and growing extension of investment levels, the issue about unbalanced spatial structure of public infrastructure investment is gradually highlighted. The differences in investment level and growth rate among different regions lead to the different degrees of "polarization" phenomenon. Overall, the distribution of public infrastructure investment demonstrates the obvious regional characteristic:the eastern region is strong, the central region is nest, the western region is weak. There are also different effects of public infrastructure investment on regional economic activity, and on one hand, this has further boosted economic growth in some regions but has marginal effect or even negative effect in some regions on the other hand. These differences are basically consistent with those of economic development in China's eastern, central and western regions. The regional structure contradiction of public infrastructure investment therefore not only prevents function display of public investment but also restricts the economic balanced development among regions. What's more, as an important basic public service item, if the supply of public infrastructure is unequally distributed, many kinds of livelihood issues and factors leading to social instability will emerge. Hence it will badly hinder the development of economy and the construction of a harmonious society.
In the area of public economics, scholars usually put emphasis on the research of the public infrastructure investment effect on economic growth but neglect concern with the effect on employment and private investment; usually pay more attention to the effect of national level but pay less attention to the effect of regional level and regional spillover effect. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out a systematically study on the mechanism and effect of China's regional-level public infrastructure investment on output, private investment and employment, which will help us to have a clearer understanding of the role of public infrastructure in economic development.
This paper is aimed at our country's current economic situation and the research defects of public infrastructure investment problem to analyze the following questions: How has the overall development of public infrastructure in China been since the reform and opening-up? How are the differences of investment level and growth status among different regions? What is the mechanism of action about public infrastructure investment to output, employment and private investment? Is there a spillover effect of public infrastructure investment among provinces? How are the effects of public infrastructure investment on provincial output, employment and private investment? What is the effects distribution and does the distribution cause inequalities among provinces? What are the factors that affect the distribution of public infrastructure investment's level and effects?
The economic effect of infrastructure investment is one of the important contents of economic theoretical and empirical analysis and has gained great attention from scholars and practical field. It is of great significance that clarifying and comparing the behavior and effect of regional level public infrastructure investment in China in the context of boosting domestic demand. This paper includes7chapters, except the first chapter, the second and third chapter are analysis bases; the fourth, fifth and sixth chapter are research on theoretical analysis, empirical analysis and reasons for the differences analysis of public infrastructure investment effect separately; the seventh chapter is the part of the conclusions and policy recommendations of this paper; specifically: Chapter1is introduction, which mainly presents research problem origins, research methods and ideas, defining the related concepts.
Chapter2is literature review, which clears up theoretical and empirical researches on public infrastructure investment both at home and abroad.
Chapter3is an overview of public infrastructure investment in China, which is designed to objectively describe the basic facts of public infrastructure investment since the reform and opening-up in China by using a series of data. Firstly, this chapter briefly describes the total amount of public infrastructure investment and the development of infrastructure stock from1981to2010. The data shows that the total amount of investment and all kinds of infrastructure stock all have a rising trend, the the percentages of public infrastructure investment to total investment in fixed assets and to GDP both improve constantly year by year. Secondly, based on the calculating of provincial data, it is found that public infrastructure investment is concentrated highly in eastern provinces, however, lowly in central and western provinces. Finally, based on the shift-share analysis, this paper examines the growth situation of regional public infrastructure investment by using the2001-2010data of the31provinces in China. The results show that:the growth speed of public infrastructure investment generally lags behind the average growth speed of other industries in China and demonstrates time and regional characteristics obviously, that is the development sequence from the east regions to the west.
Chapter4is the theoretical analysis for public infrastructure investment effect, which analyzes and infers how does public infrastructure investment affect economic growth, employment and private investment through applying to the basic theory of the investment, infrastructure, output and employment and the beneficial thoughts of western scholars. This Chapter provides theoretical basis for following text.
Chapter5is regional effects of public infrastructure investment and provincial distribution, which is the focus of the study. This paper illustrates the test result of the regional effects of China's provincial-level public infrastructure investment on private investment, employment and output and quantifies the provincial distribution of the effects by using the1990—2010time series data of28provinces in China and also by creating VAR models. Empirical results show that:there is a spillover effect of provincial public infrastructure investment in China; public infrastructure investment has been a powerful instrument to promote economic performance in most regions; at the aggregate level, direct effects from the local public infrastructure investment are more important than the spillover effects from public infrastructure investment elsewhere; in addition, the effects are distributed unbalanced across regions so that the eastern regions benefit the most while the central and western regions get less obviously.
Chapter6is the reasons that cause the regional differences of public infrastructure investment effect. This chapter firstly summarizes the status of China's provincial public infrastructure investment effect, and it turns out that the eastern region leads in the central and western regions in terms of the absolute value of effect data or in the relative value of the effect distribution. Then it points out that the public infrastructure investment effect is mainly caused by public infrastructure investment differentiated configuration. And then I constructed a theoretical model of endogenous factors affecting public infrastructure investment. I made a quantitative decomposition for factors affecting differentiated configuration of the provincial public infrastructure investment, and the results show that the income level, the public service environment and the public services quality are important factors of the inter-provincial public infrastructure investment. The endogenous factors of the differentiated configuration of the inter-provincial public infrastructure investment can infer endogenous reasons for regional public infrastructure investment effect, so that I put forward with targeted policy recommendations to optimize the public infrastructure investment effect in China.
Chapter7is the conclusions and suggestions.This part is used for summarizing the main conclusions of full dissertation as well as bringing forward related policy suggestions. The policy suggestions contain:encouraging high public infrastructure investment rates and restructuring investment regions.
Innovations of this dissertation are mainly reflected in research perspective and research method.
Innovations of research perspective mainly embody on:
Firstly, in Chapter3, on the basis of the analysis of public infrastructure investment's overall flows and stocks for the past30years in China, the research perspective focuses on eastern, central and western regions and31provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) level, and this paper comparatively analyzes the regional public infrastructure investment in the development of the three aspects of the investment flows, capital stock, investment growth, and there are differences. The results show that:the general public infrastructure investment in the economically developed eastern part of the province gathered high, lower in the central and western regions, however, the central and western regions public infrastructure overall increased in the proportion of investment of the past10years. Compared with the existing literature, this paper puts the analysis perspective advanced to the provincial-level administrative units. This study fills a certain extent the lack of research in this field.
Secondly, most literatures studying on the effect of public investment or infrastructure investment are based on the perspective of eastern, central and western regions in China and analyze different regional effects of public infrastructure investment on regional economic activity. However, this dissertation put research perspective on the effects of China's provincial-level public infrastructure investment on private investment, employment and output and quantifies the provincial distribution of the effects by using the1990—2010time series data of28provinces in China and also by creating VAR models.
Innovations of research method mainly embody on:
Firstly, based on the shift-share analysis, this dissertation examines the growth situation of regional public infrastructure investment by using the2001-2010data of the31provinces in China. The results show that:the growth speed of public infrastructure investment generally lags behind the average growth speed of other industries in China and demonstrates time and regional characteristics obviously, that is the development sequence from the east regions to the west; the industrial mix effect is the main factor of deciding the level of public infrastructure investment in every province.
Secondly, with a theoretical model of public infrastructure investment's endogenous factors, the dissertation analyzes factors affecting public infrastructure investment based on the decomposition method of Shapley Value. The study shows that disparities of provincial public infrastructure investment are mainly due to differences of revenues, environment of public services and quality of public services. Therefore, narrowing income disparities, improving the quality
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