震后恢复重建工程资金评估方法研究
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摘要
破坏性地震不但会造成大量人员伤亡、更会导致不同行业不同类型的大量工程结构不同程度的破坏甚至毁坏,使正常的生产生活秩序陷入混乱,此时各级政府除了应急救援以外,更为重要的工作是需要尽快做出科学决策,使各行业震后恢复重建工作有序高效地展开,而震后恢复重建所需资金的准确合理评估是迅速有效地展开恢复重建各项工作的重要前提。我国是地震灾害最为严重的国家之一,尽快结合我国国情开展震后恢复重建工程资金评估方法研究工作,十分必要而迫切。
本文阅读并总结分析了大量相关文献,围绕如何快速评估房屋建筑、基础设施以及三产业(农业、工业和服务业)震后恢复重建工程资金展开研究,取得了如下创新性成果:
1.给出了震后恢复重建工程资金关键影响因素,把关键影响因素分成地震特性类因素、原有物理基础设施状况类因素和政治经济人文资源类因素等三类,并细化到各衡量指标,利用灰色关联度理论分析了主要衡量指标对各行业震后恢复重建工程资金的影响程度。
2.提出了震后恢复重建工程资金的BP神经网络评估法。本文利用13-10-1或9-7-1的BP神经网络评估模型,以汶川地震中受灾县级行政区宏观经济数据、地震灾害破坏状态及震后恢复重建工程资金作为训练样本,预测其它地震震后恢复重建工程总资金及城乡住房、教育系统、卫生系统、文化系统、社会福利系统、基层政权、农业、工业和服务业震后恢复重建工程资金。该方法兼顾受灾地区的宏观经济特征和地震破坏状态,是精确度较高的一种方法。
3.提出了人均指标评估法,对震后恢复重建工程总资金及各行业系统(包括教育系统、卫生系统、文化系统、社会福利系统、基层政权、交通系统、电力系统、通信系统、市政公用设施和水利工程)所需震后恢复重建工程资金进行评估。该方法以受灾人口及地震烈度为输入信息,考虑物价变动,数据需求少,计算简便,可迅速计算获得各系统震后恢复重建工程资金。
4.提出了基于城乡住房震后恢复重建工程资金的比例评估法,对各行业系统(包括教育系统、卫生系统、文化系统、社会福利系统、基层政权、交通系统、电力系统、通信系统、市政公用设施和水利工程)所需震后恢复重建工程资金进行评估。该方法考虑了受灾地区城乡住房受损、恢复状况和地震烈度,兼顾了地区差异,计算简便。
5.提出了基于生产总值的比例评估法,对震后恢复重建工程总资金及农业、工业和服务业所需震后恢复重建工程资金进行评估。该方法考虑了少量宏观经济特征和地震烈度,兼顾了地区产业布局,计算方便快捷,可使决策者快速判断震后恢复重建工程资金分布。
6.改进了基于直接经济损失的比例评估法,统计给出了城乡住房、交通系统、电力系统、通信系统、市政公用设施、水利工程、农业、工业和服务业震后恢复重建工程资金评估调整系数,部分结果已经应用到地震现场规范《震后恢复重建工程资金初评估(草稿)》,该方法考虑了地区受损状况和地震烈度,计算容易,精确度高。
7.给出了震后砖混、框架和框剪结构的重建单价变动幅度建议值。参考工料指标消耗法,通过统计35个典型建筑工程数据,分析了“5.12”汶川地震震后材料费、人工费和机械费变动幅度对砖混、框架和框剪结构重建单价的影响,给出了震后砖混、框架和框剪结构的重建单价变动幅度建议值:砖混结构重建单价涨幅取16%～22%,框架和框剪结构重建单价涨幅取8～12%。
8.分析了汶川地震人员伤亡、经济损失与震后恢复重建工程资金分布特点,给出了人员伤亡、经济损失及震后恢复重建工程资金快速判断模型,并通过玉树地震验证了主要模型的可行性和实用性。
Destructive earthquake have caused not only severe human casualties but also damage or even ruin to various engineering structures, which results in disorder in human activities and industrial production. For the governments, it is critically important to make scientific decisions except for emergency relief so that the restoration work can be efficiently undertaken. Meanwhile, an accurate and reasonable cost estimation of post-earthquake rehabilitation establishes an essential prerequisite for the restoration and reconstruction work. China is one of the countries with the worst earthquake disaster; it is necessary and urgent to study cost estimation method of post-earthquake rehabilitation.
Based on a large number of relevant literatures, the cost estimation methods for houses, fundamental facilities and three industries which include agriculture, industry and service industry are demonstrated and presented. The main salient and innovative points can be outlined as:
1. The key influencing factors of the cost for post-earthquake rehabilitation are summarized herein and categorized into the earthquake influence factor, original fundamental facility condition factor and politic-economy-human resource factor. The corresponding indices, the influence extents of which on the cost for restoration and reconstruction are analyzed using grey correlation theory, have been proposed and detailed.
2. The BP neural-network estimation method of the cost for post-earthquake rehabilitation is proposed. Based on the data samples of macro-economy data, seismic damage conditions and cost for post-earthquake rehabilitation in the earthquake affected towns, total cost for engineering construction and the terms such as residential housing, education system, health system, culture system, welfare system etc. in another earthquakes can be estimated and predicted using the 13-10-1 or 9-7-1 BP neural-network estimation model. The method takes into account of both macro-economy and seismic damage in the earthquake affected areas. It is highly accurate method.
3. The estimation method based on population index is proposed to estimate restoration and reconstruction cost and the cost as education system, health system, culture system, welfare system, local fundamental governments, transportation system, electric power system, communication system, public civil facilities and hydraulic engineering. The method needs small information such as affected population, intensity, and price fluctuation and can conveniently and fast predict the cost for post-earthquake rehabilitation.
4. The proportion estimation method based on cost for post-earthquake rehabilitation of urban and rural houses is poprosed, which could estimate the cost for education system, health system, culture system, welfare system, local fundamental governments, transportation system, electric power system, communication system, public civil facilities and hydraulic engineering. The method considers such factors as damage of urban and rural houses, restoration conditions, seismic intensities, and regional difference.
5. The proportion estimation method based on gross product is poprosed, which could estimate the cost for agriculture, industry and service industry. The method considers a few macro-economy features, seismic intensities, and regional industry distribution. It can help decision-makers fast determine capital distribution for restoration and reconstruction.
6. The proportion estimation method based on direct economic losses is improved. The modifying coefficients of restoration and reconstruction cost estimation are statistically presented for urban and rural houses, transportation system, electric power system, communication system, electric power system, communication system, public civil facilities and hydraulic engineering, agriculture, industry and service industry. Results are partially adopted to Seismic Field Code“Preliminary cost estimation of post-earthquake rehabilitation of engineering structures(draft)”. The method considers damage conditions in the affected areas and seismic intensities. It has the advantages of easy calculation and high accuracy.
7. Referring methods of the consumption index of material and labor, the influence of change of material cost, labor cost and machine cost on the unit reconstructing cost of brick-concrete, frame and frame-shear structures has been analyzed by statistics of 35 typical engineering building data. The suggested values of change of unit reconstructing cost for brick-concrete, frame and frame-shear structures are also given. The unit reconstructing cost change for brick-concrete structures which are mainly built after event is 16%-22%, and 8%-12% for frame and frame-shear structures. The results can be used to improve estimation accuracy of reconstruction capital of houses in the future earthquakes.
8. The distribution features of caulties, direct ecmomic losses and post-earthquake rehabilitation cost are analyzed. The model of casualty estimation, economy loss and post-earthquake rehabilitation cost has been proposed. Meanwhile, the feasibility and applicability of the model have been verified by the case of Yushu earthquake.
本文阅读并总结分析了大量相关文献,围绕如何快速评估房屋建筑、基础设施以及三产业(农业、工业和服务业)震后恢复重建工程资金展开研究,取得了如下创新性成果:
1.给出了震后恢复重建工程资金关键影响因素,把关键影响因素分成地震特性类因素、原有物理基础设施状况类因素和政治经济人文资源类因素等三类,并细化到各衡量指标,利用灰色关联度理论分析了主要衡量指标对各行业震后恢复重建工程资金的影响程度。
2.提出了震后恢复重建工程资金的BP神经网络评估法。本文利用13-10-1或9-7-1的BP神经网络评估模型,以汶川地震中受灾县级行政区宏观经济数据、地震灾害破坏状态及震后恢复重建工程资金作为训练样本,预测其它地震震后恢复重建工程总资金及城乡住房、教育系统、卫生系统、文化系统、社会福利系统、基层政权、农业、工业和服务业震后恢复重建工程资金。该方法兼顾受灾地区的宏观经济特征和地震破坏状态,是精确度较高的一种方法。
3.提出了人均指标评估法,对震后恢复重建工程总资金及各行业系统(包括教育系统、卫生系统、文化系统、社会福利系统、基层政权、交通系统、电力系统、通信系统、市政公用设施和水利工程)所需震后恢复重建工程资金进行评估。该方法以受灾人口及地震烈度为输入信息,考虑物价变动,数据需求少,计算简便,可迅速计算获得各系统震后恢复重建工程资金。
4.提出了基于城乡住房震后恢复重建工程资金的比例评估法,对各行业系统(包括教育系统、卫生系统、文化系统、社会福利系统、基层政权、交通系统、电力系统、通信系统、市政公用设施和水利工程)所需震后恢复重建工程资金进行评估。该方法考虑了受灾地区城乡住房受损、恢复状况和地震烈度,兼顾了地区差异,计算简便。
5.提出了基于生产总值的比例评估法,对震后恢复重建工程总资金及农业、工业和服务业所需震后恢复重建工程资金进行评估。该方法考虑了少量宏观经济特征和地震烈度,兼顾了地区产业布局,计算方便快捷,可使决策者快速判断震后恢复重建工程资金分布。
6.改进了基于直接经济损失的比例评估法,统计给出了城乡住房、交通系统、电力系统、通信系统、市政公用设施、水利工程、农业、工业和服务业震后恢复重建工程资金评估调整系数,部分结果已经应用到地震现场规范《震后恢复重建工程资金初评估(草稿)》,该方法考虑了地区受损状况和地震烈度,计算容易,精确度高。
7.给出了震后砖混、框架和框剪结构的重建单价变动幅度建议值。参考工料指标消耗法,通过统计35个典型建筑工程数据,分析了“5.12”汶川地震震后材料费、人工费和机械费变动幅度对砖混、框架和框剪结构重建单价的影响,给出了震后砖混、框架和框剪结构的重建单价变动幅度建议值:砖混结构重建单价涨幅取16%～22%,框架和框剪结构重建单价涨幅取8～12%。
8.分析了汶川地震人员伤亡、经济损失与震后恢复重建工程资金分布特点,给出了人员伤亡、经济损失及震后恢复重建工程资金快速判断模型,并通过玉树地震验证了主要模型的可行性和实用性。
Destructive earthquake have caused not only severe human casualties but also damage or even ruin to various engineering structures, which results in disorder in human activities and industrial production. For the governments, it is critically important to make scientific decisions except for emergency relief so that the restoration work can be efficiently undertaken. Meanwhile, an accurate and reasonable cost estimation of post-earthquake rehabilitation establishes an essential prerequisite for the restoration and reconstruction work. China is one of the countries with the worst earthquake disaster; it is necessary and urgent to study cost estimation method of post-earthquake rehabilitation.
Based on a large number of relevant literatures, the cost estimation methods for houses, fundamental facilities and three industries which include agriculture, industry and service industry are demonstrated and presented. The main salient and innovative points can be outlined as:
1. The key influencing factors of the cost for post-earthquake rehabilitation are summarized herein and categorized into the earthquake influence factor, original fundamental facility condition factor and politic-economy-human resource factor. The corresponding indices, the influence extents of which on the cost for restoration and reconstruction are analyzed using grey correlation theory, have been proposed and detailed.
2. The BP neural-network estimation method of the cost for post-earthquake rehabilitation is proposed. Based on the data samples of macro-economy data, seismic damage conditions and cost for post-earthquake rehabilitation in the earthquake affected towns, total cost for engineering construction and the terms such as residential housing, education system, health system, culture system, welfare system etc. in another earthquakes can be estimated and predicted using the 13-10-1 or 9-7-1 BP neural-network estimation model. The method takes into account of both macro-economy and seismic damage in the earthquake affected areas. It is highly accurate method.
3. The estimation method based on population index is proposed to estimate restoration and reconstruction cost and the cost as education system, health system, culture system, welfare system, local fundamental governments, transportation system, electric power system, communication system, public civil facilities and hydraulic engineering. The method needs small information such as affected population, intensity, and price fluctuation and can conveniently and fast predict the cost for post-earthquake rehabilitation.
4. The proportion estimation method based on cost for post-earthquake rehabilitation of urban and rural houses is poprosed, which could estimate the cost for education system, health system, culture system, welfare system, local fundamental governments, transportation system, electric power system, communication system, public civil facilities and hydraulic engineering. The method considers such factors as damage of urban and rural houses, restoration conditions, seismic intensities, and regional difference.
5. The proportion estimation method based on gross product is poprosed, which could estimate the cost for agriculture, industry and service industry. The method considers a few macro-economy features, seismic intensities, and regional industry distribution. It can help decision-makers fast determine capital distribution for restoration and reconstruction.
6. The proportion estimation method based on direct economic losses is improved. The modifying coefficients of restoration and reconstruction cost estimation are statistically presented for urban and rural houses, transportation system, electric power system, communication system, electric power system, communication system, public civil facilities and hydraulic engineering, agriculture, industry and service industry. Results are partially adopted to Seismic Field Code“Preliminary cost estimation of post-earthquake rehabilitation of engineering structures(draft)”. The method considers damage conditions in the affected areas and seismic intensities. It has the advantages of easy calculation and high accuracy.
7. Referring methods of the consumption index of material and labor, the influence of change of material cost, labor cost and machine cost on the unit reconstructing cost of brick-concrete, frame and frame-shear structures has been analyzed by statistics of 35 typical engineering building data. The suggested values of change of unit reconstructing cost for brick-concrete, frame and frame-shear structures are also given. The unit reconstructing cost change for brick-concrete structures which are mainly built after event is 16%-22%, and 8%-12% for frame and frame-shear structures. The results can be used to improve estimation accuracy of reconstruction capital of houses in the future earthquakes.
8. The distribution features of caulties, direct ecmomic losses and post-earthquake rehabilitation cost are analyzed. The model of casualty estimation, economy loss and post-earthquake rehabilitation cost has been proposed. Meanwhile, the feasibility and applicability of the model have been verified by the case of Yushu earthquake.
引文
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