中国房地产价格对产出和消费物价的影响
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摘要
资产(房地产)价格、银行信贷与宏观经济，三者之间关系密切，资产价格波动会影响银行信贷，进而影响宏观经济，甚至引发经济衰退。相比于其他资产价格，房地产价格波动对银行信贷和宏观经济影响更大，它一方面可以改变其所有者的信贷能力，影响银行的信贷意愿与力度，另一方面，它也可以通过银行信贷渠道影响消费和投资。因而，房地产价格如何影响宏观经济，银行信贷在此过程中扮演何种角色，并且利率政策在房地产市场中以何种方式进行传导以及有效性如何，利率政策是否应该针对房地产价格进行调控，以及利率政策影响房地产价格的有效性如何都是目前学者及政策制定者关注的焦点。
本文以“中国房地产价格对产出和消费物价的影响”为研究对象，从以下5个方面进行了研究。首先，基于不同收入等级的家庭平均可支配收入、不同用途的商品房供给和销售情况，计算房价收入比，深入研究房地产市场供求特征以及市场价格关系失衡和供求结构失衡问题，并描述了房地产价格、银行信贷与开发投资和住房消费之间的关系，分析了房地产行业发展对经济增长的影响。其次，建立房地产价格与信贷约束的互动模型，探讨了房地产价格与信贷约束之间的互动关系，并采用Granger因果关系检验，检验了房地产价格与银行信贷之间的因果关系。第三，在一般均衡分析框架下，研究信贷约束、房地产价格和总产出的互动影响，并在此基础上检验了房地产价格通过银行信贷渠道，对产出和消费物价的影响。第四，实证检验了我国利率政策是否对房地产价格波动做出反应，以及房地产市场利率政策信贷渠道传导机制是否顺畅，并且检验了利率政策影响房地产价格的有效性。最后，检验了信贷约束下房地产价格波动对消费和投资的影响，深入分析了房地产价格上涨对宏观经济长期均衡增长的负面影响。
通过上述理论研究和实证检验本文得出以下结论:
(1)目前，我国房地产市场需求大于供给，并且市场潜在需求巨大。市场价格关系失衡和供求结构失衡影响了房地产行业的健康发展。并且实践经验表明，房地产价格上升通过银行信贷影响房地产开发投资和家庭住房消费，进而推动经济增长。
(2)理论和实证检验说明我国房地产价格与银行信贷之间存在互动关系，表明银行信贷将放大房地产价格对宏观经济的冲击，验证了银行信贷在房地产价格波动对宏观经济冲击过程中扮演了重要角色。
(3)我国房地产价格通过银行信贷影响产出和消费物价。①理论模型研究表明：利率与房地产价格之间存在负相关关系，房地产价格与贷款价值比之间存在正相关关系，即随着贷款价值比的上升，房地产价格上升；房地产价格上涨，将推动产出增长；随着贷款价值比上升，利率对房地产价格的影响程度增大。②实证检验结果表明，房地产价格波动通过银行信贷渠道对产出的影响趋势性并不显著，而对消费物价的影响趋势性显著，随着我国房地产价格上涨，通货膨胀呈先上升，再下降，而后在此恢复上涨的态势。
(4)我国房地产价格将影响利率政策操作：利率政策对房地产价格波动作出反应，而且房地产市场利率政策信贷渠道传导机制并不顺畅。利率政策会影响我国房地产价格，但短期和长期的政策有效性存在差别。
(5)银行信贷约束下，我国房地产价格与家庭消费支出之间存在负相关关系，与企业固定资产投资之间存在正相关关系，而这会导致投资和消费结构失衡问题更加严重，加上房地产价格上涨导致银行信贷资金低效配置，以及房地产价格上涨导致资源配置失衡而引起的产业机构失衡，不利于实现经济长期健康增长。
Asset price, bank credit and macroeconomy, are closely related: asset price will affect thebank credit and then influence macroeconomy, and even lead to macroeconomic recession.Compared to other asset prices, the house price fluctuation has greater impact on macroeconomy,as it can change the credit capacity of the owner, influencing the will and effort of the bank credit,and therefore influences the consumption and investment through the bank credit channel. Thus,how the house price affects macroeconomy, what kind of role the bank credit plays during theprocess, in which way the interest rate policy is conducted in the house market, whether or notthe house price should be the consideration of the interest rate policy regulation, and howeffective the policy on the house price is, become the major current focus of scholars and policymakers.
The paper studies "theoretical and empirical study on the effect of China’s house priceshock on output and CPI" from five approaches. First, this thesis calculates the ratio of houseprice to income, based on the data of the average disposable income of the different incomecitizens, exploring the imbalance of the relationship of the prices and the imbalance of the supplyand demand of the housing market, and then explores the relationship among the house price,bank credit, development investment and housing consumption, analyzing the influence of thedevelopment of the house industry on the economic growth. Second, setting up a model, thisthesis explores the interaction between house price and bank credit, and then Granger causalitytest between house price and bank credit testifies the interrelationship between them. Third, thisthesis uses the general equilibrium analysis, exploring the interaction among the credit constraint,the house price and GDP, and then empirically tests the impact of the house price on the GDPand CPI through the bank credit. Fourth, this thesis empirically tests whether the interest ratepolicy reacts to the fluctuation of house price, empirically tests the effectiveness of the housingmarket channel of the monetary credit transmission mechanism, and then empirically tests theinfluence of the interest rate policy on the house price. Last, this thesis explores the influence ofthe house price fluctuations on the consumption and investment, through the balance sheetchannel, and then explores the negative influences of the rising of the house price, on theeconomic growth in the long run.
According to the above, the conclusions can be drawn as following.
(1) The housing market demand is larger than the supply and potential demand of thehousing market is huge. The imbalance of the relationship of house prices and the imbalance ofthe supply and demand affect the healthy development of the real estate industry. And practicalexperience has shown that the rising of the house price increases the real estate investment andconsumption through the bank credit channel, and therefore promotes economic growth.
(2) The theoretical and empirical study demonstrates that interaction exists between thehouse price and the bank credit, which shows that the bank credit will exaggerate the influenceof the house price on the macroeconomy and testifies that the bank credit plays an important roleduring the process.
(3) Our house price has impact on GDP and CPI through the bank credit channel.①thetheoretical research show that the interest rate and the house price is negatively correlated, thehouse price and LTV is positively correlated, that is with the increase of the LTV, the houseprice will increase, the rising of the house price will increase the growth of GDP, and with theincrease of LTV, the influence of the interest rate on the house price becomes greater.②theempirical test shows that the impact of the house price on the GDP is not significant, while onthe CPI is significant, with the CPI increasing first, then beginning to decrease, and increasingagain.
(4) Our house price influences the operation of the interest rate policy. The interest ratepolicy reacts to the fluctuation of the house price, and the housing market channel of themonetary credit transmission mechanism is not smooth. The interest rate policy has certainimpact on the house price, but the effectiveness in the long run is quite different from theeffectiveness in the short run.
(5) Under the credit constraint, our house price is negatively correlated with theconsumption, while is positively correlated with investment in fixed assets, which will worsenthe structure of the consumption and investment, coupled with the inefficient configuration ofthe bank credit caused by the rising of the house price, and the imbalance of the industrystructure cause by the imbalance in the allocation of resources, decrease the growth rate of GDPin the long run.
本文以“中国房地产价格对产出和消费物价的影响”为研究对象，从以下5个方面进行了研究。首先，基于不同收入等级的家庭平均可支配收入、不同用途的商品房供给和销售情况，计算房价收入比，深入研究房地产市场供求特征以及市场价格关系失衡和供求结构失衡问题，并描述了房地产价格、银行信贷与开发投资和住房消费之间的关系，分析了房地产行业发展对经济增长的影响。其次，建立房地产价格与信贷约束的互动模型，探讨了房地产价格与信贷约束之间的互动关系，并采用Granger因果关系检验，检验了房地产价格与银行信贷之间的因果关系。第三，在一般均衡分析框架下，研究信贷约束、房地产价格和总产出的互动影响，并在此基础上检验了房地产价格通过银行信贷渠道，对产出和消费物价的影响。第四，实证检验了我国利率政策是否对房地产价格波动做出反应，以及房地产市场利率政策信贷渠道传导机制是否顺畅，并且检验了利率政策影响房地产价格的有效性。最后，检验了信贷约束下房地产价格波动对消费和投资的影响，深入分析了房地产价格上涨对宏观经济长期均衡增长的负面影响。
通过上述理论研究和实证检验本文得出以下结论:
(1)目前，我国房地产市场需求大于供给，并且市场潜在需求巨大。市场价格关系失衡和供求结构失衡影响了房地产行业的健康发展。并且实践经验表明，房地产价格上升通过银行信贷影响房地产开发投资和家庭住房消费，进而推动经济增长。
(2)理论和实证检验说明我国房地产价格与银行信贷之间存在互动关系，表明银行信贷将放大房地产价格对宏观经济的冲击，验证了银行信贷在房地产价格波动对宏观经济冲击过程中扮演了重要角色。
(3)我国房地产价格通过银行信贷影响产出和消费物价。①理论模型研究表明：利率与房地产价格之间存在负相关关系，房地产价格与贷款价值比之间存在正相关关系，即随着贷款价值比的上升，房地产价格上升；房地产价格上涨，将推动产出增长；随着贷款价值比上升，利率对房地产价格的影响程度增大。②实证检验结果表明，房地产价格波动通过银行信贷渠道对产出的影响趋势性并不显著，而对消费物价的影响趋势性显著，随着我国房地产价格上涨，通货膨胀呈先上升，再下降，而后在此恢复上涨的态势。
(4)我国房地产价格将影响利率政策操作：利率政策对房地产价格波动作出反应，而且房地产市场利率政策信贷渠道传导机制并不顺畅。利率政策会影响我国房地产价格，但短期和长期的政策有效性存在差别。
(5)银行信贷约束下，我国房地产价格与家庭消费支出之间存在负相关关系，与企业固定资产投资之间存在正相关关系，而这会导致投资和消费结构失衡问题更加严重，加上房地产价格上涨导致银行信贷资金低效配置，以及房地产价格上涨导致资源配置失衡而引起的产业机构失衡，不利于实现经济长期健康增长。
Asset price, bank credit and macroeconomy, are closely related: asset price will affect thebank credit and then influence macroeconomy, and even lead to macroeconomic recession.Compared to other asset prices, the house price fluctuation has greater impact on macroeconomy,as it can change the credit capacity of the owner, influencing the will and effort of the bank credit,and therefore influences the consumption and investment through the bank credit channel. Thus,how the house price affects macroeconomy, what kind of role the bank credit plays during theprocess, in which way the interest rate policy is conducted in the house market, whether or notthe house price should be the consideration of the interest rate policy regulation, and howeffective the policy on the house price is, become the major current focus of scholars and policymakers.
The paper studies "theoretical and empirical study on the effect of China’s house priceshock on output and CPI" from five approaches. First, this thesis calculates the ratio of houseprice to income, based on the data of the average disposable income of the different incomecitizens, exploring the imbalance of the relationship of the prices and the imbalance of the supplyand demand of the housing market, and then explores the relationship among the house price,bank credit, development investment and housing consumption, analyzing the influence of thedevelopment of the house industry on the economic growth. Second, setting up a model, thisthesis explores the interaction between house price and bank credit, and then Granger causalitytest between house price and bank credit testifies the interrelationship between them. Third, thisthesis uses the general equilibrium analysis, exploring the interaction among the credit constraint,the house price and GDP, and then empirically tests the impact of the house price on the GDPand CPI through the bank credit. Fourth, this thesis empirically tests whether the interest ratepolicy reacts to the fluctuation of house price, empirically tests the effectiveness of the housingmarket channel of the monetary credit transmission mechanism, and then empirically tests theinfluence of the interest rate policy on the house price. Last, this thesis explores the influence ofthe house price fluctuations on the consumption and investment, through the balance sheetchannel, and then explores the negative influences of the rising of the house price, on theeconomic growth in the long run.
According to the above, the conclusions can be drawn as following.
(1) The housing market demand is larger than the supply and potential demand of thehousing market is huge. The imbalance of the relationship of house prices and the imbalance ofthe supply and demand affect the healthy development of the real estate industry. And practicalexperience has shown that the rising of the house price increases the real estate investment andconsumption through the bank credit channel, and therefore promotes economic growth.
(2) The theoretical and empirical study demonstrates that interaction exists between thehouse price and the bank credit, which shows that the bank credit will exaggerate the influenceof the house price on the macroeconomy and testifies that the bank credit plays an important roleduring the process.
(3) Our house price has impact on GDP and CPI through the bank credit channel.①thetheoretical research show that the interest rate and the house price is negatively correlated, thehouse price and LTV is positively correlated, that is with the increase of the LTV, the houseprice will increase, the rising of the house price will increase the growth of GDP, and with theincrease of LTV, the influence of the interest rate on the house price becomes greater.②theempirical test shows that the impact of the house price on the GDP is not significant, while onthe CPI is significant, with the CPI increasing first, then beginning to decrease, and increasingagain.
(4) Our house price influences the operation of the interest rate policy. The interest ratepolicy reacts to the fluctuation of the house price, and the housing market channel of themonetary credit transmission mechanism is not smooth. The interest rate policy has certainimpact on the house price, but the effectiveness in the long run is quite different from theeffectiveness in the short run.
(5) Under the credit constraint, our house price is negatively correlated with theconsumption, while is positively correlated with investment in fixed assets, which will worsenthe structure of the consumption and investment, coupled with the inefficient configuration ofthe bank credit caused by the rising of the house price, and the imbalance of the industrystructure cause by the imbalance in the allocation of resources, decrease the growth rate of GDPin the long run.
引文
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