基于多属性决策理论的子母弹打击机场跑道综合评价模型研究
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摘要
使用子母弹摧毁敌方机场是压制敌方空军战斗力、夺取制空权的最直接、最有效的作战方式。本文主要对子母弹打击机场跑道的综合评价问题进行研究,针对不同作战方案的综合效果利用综合评价模型定量地给出了评价结果,帮助战场指挥员决策最合理的作战方案。
本文首先分析了综合评价子母弹打击机场跑道的基本流程,提出了基于多属性决策理论建立子母弹打击机场跑道的综合评价模型;然后研究了利用Monte-Carlo实验统计法预测作战方案的封锁概率和封锁时间,在单次实验中模拟了子母弹打击机场跑道的随机过程;接着分析了综合评价模型中需要进行评价的属性及属性之间的逻辑关系,构建了综合评价模型的准则体系,对子母弹打击机场跑道综合评价模型的具体形式进行了描述;尔后利用TOPSIS方法对综合评价模型进行了求解,通过比较备选方案与理想方案之间的接近度,定量地给出了备选方案之间的优劣关系;最后对综合评价结果的合理性和稳定性进行了检验,提出了一种对传统TOPSIS方法的改进,给出了改变综合评价结果的属性权重变化范围。
本文的创新点主要有以下几个:
1)基于多属性决策理论建立了子母弹打击机场跑道的综合评价模型,方法上不同于其他基于模糊综合评价的武器资源作战效能综合评价模型;
2)本文提出了对传统TOPSIS方法的一种改进——基于投影距离的TOPSIS方法,该方法可以有效地避免传统TOPSIS方法出现倒序现象的缺陷;
3)基于边际权重的计算,分析了综合评价模型结果的稳定性,研究了容易改变评价结果的敏感性属性权重及其变化范围。
A direct and effective battle method of suppressing the enemy’s air force battle effectiveness and winning air supremacy is to attack the airport runway using cluster munitions. The main job of this paper is to illustrate an integrative evaluation of attacking the airport runway by cluster munitions. This integrative evaluation model gives a quantitative evaluation result for different fighting purposes, and may help a commander to select a rational attack plan.
Firstly, an idea about the integrative evaluation based on multiple attribute decision making theory is proposed to set up a basic process of the integrative evaluation on attacking the airport runway with cluster munitions. Then, the attacking effect is predicted by means of Monte-Carlo to simulate the random process of the airport runway attacking. Next, the attributes which are required for integrative evaluation are listed and the relations among the attributes are analyzed, from which a criteria system of the integrative evaluation is established to form a mathematical model in detail for the integrative evaluation. The integrative evaluation is processed by the TOPSIS method, by comparing the approximation between the selective plan and the ideal plan, the best one is determined based on quantitative analysis. Finally, rationality and stability of the integrative evaluation result are examined by creating an improved TOPSIS method, and a variation range of the attributes’weights is given, which would change the integrative evaluation result apparently.
The innovations in this paper are as follows:
1) An integrative model for evaluating the airport runway attacked by cluster munitions based on the multiple attribute decision making theory is developed. This method is different from the integrative model based on a fuzzy integrative evaluation;
2) An improved TOPSIS method based on the projective distance is proposed. The new method can avoid the reverse order happened in the traditional TOPSIS method effectively;
3) The boundary weights to analyze the stability of the integrative evaluation result are calculated, and the weights of sensitive attributes and the variation range of them which would change the integrative evaluating result apparently have been researched as well.
本文首先分析了综合评价子母弹打击机场跑道的基本流程,提出了基于多属性决策理论建立子母弹打击机场跑道的综合评价模型;然后研究了利用Monte-Carlo实验统计法预测作战方案的封锁概率和封锁时间,在单次实验中模拟了子母弹打击机场跑道的随机过程;接着分析了综合评价模型中需要进行评价的属性及属性之间的逻辑关系,构建了综合评价模型的准则体系,对子母弹打击机场跑道综合评价模型的具体形式进行了描述;尔后利用TOPSIS方法对综合评价模型进行了求解,通过比较备选方案与理想方案之间的接近度,定量地给出了备选方案之间的优劣关系;最后对综合评价结果的合理性和稳定性进行了检验,提出了一种对传统TOPSIS方法的改进,给出了改变综合评价结果的属性权重变化范围。
本文的创新点主要有以下几个:
1)基于多属性决策理论建立了子母弹打击机场跑道的综合评价模型,方法上不同于其他基于模糊综合评价的武器资源作战效能综合评价模型;
2)本文提出了对传统TOPSIS方法的一种改进——基于投影距离的TOPSIS方法,该方法可以有效地避免传统TOPSIS方法出现倒序现象的缺陷;
3)基于边际权重的计算,分析了综合评价模型结果的稳定性,研究了容易改变评价结果的敏感性属性权重及其变化范围。
A direct and effective battle method of suppressing the enemy’s air force battle effectiveness and winning air supremacy is to attack the airport runway using cluster munitions. The main job of this paper is to illustrate an integrative evaluation of attacking the airport runway by cluster munitions. This integrative evaluation model gives a quantitative evaluation result for different fighting purposes, and may help a commander to select a rational attack plan.
Firstly, an idea about the integrative evaluation based on multiple attribute decision making theory is proposed to set up a basic process of the integrative evaluation on attacking the airport runway with cluster munitions. Then, the attacking effect is predicted by means of Monte-Carlo to simulate the random process of the airport runway attacking. Next, the attributes which are required for integrative evaluation are listed and the relations among the attributes are analyzed, from which a criteria system of the integrative evaluation is established to form a mathematical model in detail for the integrative evaluation. The integrative evaluation is processed by the TOPSIS method, by comparing the approximation between the selective plan and the ideal plan, the best one is determined based on quantitative analysis. Finally, rationality and stability of the integrative evaluation result are examined by creating an improved TOPSIS method, and a variation range of the attributes’weights is given, which would change the integrative evaluation result apparently.
The innovations in this paper are as follows:
1) An integrative model for evaluating the airport runway attacked by cluster munitions based on the multiple attribute decision making theory is developed. This method is different from the integrative model based on a fuzzy integrative evaluation;
2) An improved TOPSIS method based on the projective distance is proposed. The new method can avoid the reverse order happened in the traditional TOPSIS method effectively;
3) The boundary weights to analyze the stability of the integrative evaluation result are calculated, and the weights of sensitive attributes and the variation range of them which would change the integrative evaluating result apparently have been researched as well.
引文
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[10]杨军,毕义明,孙俊华.用遗传算法求解常规导弹封锁机场的最佳策略[J].军事运筹与系统工程,2001,2:4-8.
[11]王华,马宝华.封锁机场多模弹药反排策略与对抗特性分析[J].弹箭与制导学报,2001,21(1):42-46.
[12]王华,焦国太,宋丽萍.配用多模引信的多模弹药封锁机场模型研究[J].探测与控制学报,2003,25(3):17-20.
[13]梁敏,杨骅飞.机场封锁与反封锁对抗中的封锁效能计算模型[J].探测与控制学报,2003,25(2):50-54.
[14]黄龙华,冯顺山,樊桂印.封锁型子母弹对飞机从机场跑道强行起降的封锁效能分析[J].弹箭与制导学报,2008,28(4):139-142.
[15]吴福强,王正明.基于起降风险的多模弹对机场跑道的封锁效能评估[C].长沙:国防科学技术大学第九届研究生学术活动节论文集,2009:103-108.
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[17]李向东,董旭意.子弹数目对子母弹毁伤效能的影响研究[J].弹道学报,2001,13(1):37-40.
[18]高士英,刘彦,黄风雷.子母弹对机场跑道毁伤评估的计算模拟研究[J].弹箭与制导学报,2008,28(6):132-134.
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[20]舒健生,李亚雄,苏国华.子母弹抛撒盲区对毁伤效果的影响研究[J].弹箭与制导学报,2008,28(3):150-152.
[21] Swanson Douglas A, Miller Lane R, Design and effectiveness evaluation of an active vibration isolation system for a commercial jet aircraft [C]. AIAA/ AHS/ ASEE, Aerospace Design Conference 1993.
[22] Young S R, Gannon J A, Hampton S T, Harris T J, Sankhla C P. Cost and operational effectiveness analysis for marine corps third echelon test set [R]. ADA371235, 1995.
[23]张洪波,郑伟,赵民等.弹道导弹综合效能评估方法[J].导弹与航天运载技术,2007,(4):29-31.
[24]顾金芳,梁兴甫,彭小龙等.便携式地空导弹武器系统作战效能的模糊综合评价[J].电光与控制,2006,13(5):95-97.
[25]冷宣兵,王平,张立.基于模糊综合评判的舰空导弹设计方案评估方法研究[J].兵工自动化,2008,27(9):6-11.
[26]周国庆,吴福初,吴杰等.空舰导弹武器系统作战效能模糊综合评估[J].兵工自动化,2008,27(10):31-33.
[27]姜浩,陈浩光,星学华.基于二级模糊综合评判的机场目标毁伤效果评估[J].兵工自动化,2007,26(8):1-2.
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