新能源发电特性与经济性分析研究
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摘要
化石能源的大量利用带来了资源枯竭和气候变化两大问题,严重威胁人类社会的可持续发展。寻求清洁、可持续的替代能源,成为能源工业的历史挑战。太阳能、风能等新能源以其可再生、清洁无污染的特点逐渐受到人们的关注。在新能源的发展过程中能源价格是能源竞争的关键,只有当新能源与可再生能源在价格上与传统能源形成可比性,能源更替才能通过市场竞争逐渐完成。能源价格受到能源政策、技术进步等因素的影响,因此科学合理的能源发展战略、技术研发战略将对新能源革命起到巨大的推动作用。本文针对我国新能源发展过程中遇到的技术、价格、政策等问题进行分析,基于分析结果并借鉴国外的发展经验从政策角度为我国合理、高效发展新能源提出了一些建议。
本文的主要内容如下：
(1)分析了我国能源的分布结构、分布特点和能源存储方式,重点研究了以风力发电、太阳能光伏发电为代表的新能源发电输出特性方程,并仿真分析了其发电输出特性。由于受到风能资源和太阳光辐射资源随机性和波动性的影响,风力发电和光伏发电的输出特性都具有随机性和波动性。同时分析了风力发电、光伏发电的不同接入模式对电网规划、运行、保护、经济性等方面的影响。以某省光伏并网为例,计算分析了光伏全年的输出特性及其并网后对该省电网峰谷差的影响。
(2)利用能源技术经济学评价方法—平准化能源成本分析法(Levelized Cost of Energy, LCOE),以火力发电、风力发电和光伏发电为例,比较新能源发电与传统能源发电项目的长期投资平均成本。研究表明,在只考虑环境外部效益而不考虑其他鼓励性政策、补贴的前提下,风力发电项目比火力发电项目具有明显的优势,因此应该改变对新能源成本过高的固有认识。在此基础上,通过计算分析,讨论了影响新能源发展的实际因素,提出了国家应该逐步减少对新能源发电环节的补贴,加强对智能电网建设的支持和新能源设备制造业的支持,这样更有利于我国新能源产业的发展。
(3)深入分析了我国产生弃风现象的原因,指出弃风问题本质是电力系统对风电的消纳能力问题,解决弃风问题需要包括风力发电企业、输配电企业以及用电客户在内的各个环节、各个利益相关方的共同努力。
对我国目前采用的弃风供暖系统和风储联合运行系统进行了综合性分析,通过分析结果可以看出：系统经济效益受限于热电比,只有当热电比介于1到2之间时系统才能盈利,当热电比大于2时系统将一直处于负盈利状态。同时,折现率对系统的经济效益也有较大的影响,折现率越低,系统地经济效益越好。对于风储联合运行系统进行了经济性分析,重点分析了不同储能系统的技术经济性,飞轮储能系统相对于超级电容储能、超导磁储能来说具有较好的经济性。
(4)针对我国新能源发展过程中出现的一系列问题,分析了我国现行的新能源政策、法律、法规。借鉴国外相关国家的发展经验,并结合我国自身条件,对我国现行的新能源政策提出了一些改进建议：从政府的角度出发,政府应当在新能源的利用当中起到带头作用,并为新能源的发展提供相关的政策保证,例如新能源电价、补贴、税收等；从市场的角度出发,应该建立健全的新能源的消费市场；从资源的角度出发,对新能源资源要进行准确的评估。
(5)分析了现行能源价值模型,影子价格模型、边际机会成本模型、收益现值模型、CGE模型等,提出了适合于新能源的包含环境因素和旋转备用因素的新能源价值模型,过该模型可以为新能源发电上网电价的确定和国家对于新能源补贴政策的出台提供理论依据。以风电为例,用该模型进行了实例计算,在考虑环境价值和旋转备用后,风电场在现行上网电价下是具有一定的经济效益的。
Now, fossil energy is the main energy, while the extensive use of fossil fuels has brought the problem of source depletion and climate change. Seeking clean and sustainable energy sources has become an important challenge. People are paying more attention to new energy, such as solar, wind and other new energy because of the characteristics of renewable, clean and pollution-free. In the development process of new energy, the price is the key to energy competition. When the price of new energy and renewable energy is same to the conventional energy, energy placement could be completion in the market. The new energy price influenced by many factors, such as energy policy, technology. A scientific and rational energy development strategy will play an important role in energy revolution.
In this paper, the problem of new energy development encountered such as technology, price, policy and so on, have been in-depth analysis. Based on the analysis results, the government has proposed some recommendations in policy perspective to promote new energy development in a reasonable and efficient way.
The main contents include:
(1) The output characteristic equation and the simulation of the wind power and solar photovoltaic are proposed. Due to the influence of the randomness and volatility of wind and solar sources, the output characteristics of the wind power and photovoltaic power are both randomness and volatility. We also analyzed the impact of the different access patterns of wind power, photovoltaic and distributed energy on the network planning, operation, protection, economic and other aspects.
(2) Analyzing the average investment of the thermal power, wind power and photovoltaic power generation in long-term energy power generation through the levelized cost of energy. Studies have showed that unconsidering the policy of subsidies and other incentives, wind power projects has more obvious advantages than thermal power project. According to that, we should change the understanding about the inherent high cost of new energy. On this basis, through computational analysis, discusses the factors that influence the actual development of new energy power generated. At the presented state, the government should gradually reduce subsidies for new energy power plant, and strengthen support for smart grid construction, and it is more favorable to use new energy generation in electricity demand centers.
(3) Analyzing the reasons of abandoned wind around all the world, through analysis of the reasons of abandoned wind power, indicating the nature of problem is the problem of power system capacity for wind power. In order to solve the problem of abandoned wind, it needs wind power business, lost distribution companies and electricity customers, including all aspects of the various stakeholders to work together.
The abandoned wind power heating systems and wind combined storage system in China are be used to solve the problem of abandan wind power. According the analysed results, the abandoned wind power heating systemare is subject to by electricity-heat ratio. The system is profitability only when the ratio is between1-2, in a state of negative earning when the ratio is greater than2.The discount rate also has a great impact on the economic system, the lower the discount rate, the better the economy. For wind storage system has been jointly run economic analysis, focusing on the technical and economic analysis of different energy storage systems, flywheel energy storage system is better in economic than super-capacitor energy storage, superconducting magnetic energy storage.
(4) We make some suggestions for the development of new energy in China based our current new energy policies, laws and regulatios. From the point of the government, the government should play a leading role, make use of the new energy and provide policies guarntees for the development of new energy. Such as new energy tariffs, subsidies, taxes, etc; from the market point, it should establish new markets and improve the energy consumption; from the point of view of resources, for the new energy resources should be assessment in an accurate way.
(5) Investigating the current energy value models, the shadow price model, the marginal opportunity cost model, the present value of revenue models, the computable general equilibrium model. We proposed a new energy value model, this model includes environmental factors and spinning reserve factors suitable for new energy sources, the new energy model can determine the tariff and statesubsidies for the introduction of new energy policies to provide evidence. Taking wind power as an example, in consideration of environment values and spinning reserve the actual cost of the wind power. Wind power still has some benefits, under tbe current price of on-grid wind power.
本文的主要内容如下：
(1)分析了我国能源的分布结构、分布特点和能源存储方式,重点研究了以风力发电、太阳能光伏发电为代表的新能源发电输出特性方程,并仿真分析了其发电输出特性。由于受到风能资源和太阳光辐射资源随机性和波动性的影响,风力发电和光伏发电的输出特性都具有随机性和波动性。同时分析了风力发电、光伏发电的不同接入模式对电网规划、运行、保护、经济性等方面的影响。以某省光伏并网为例,计算分析了光伏全年的输出特性及其并网后对该省电网峰谷差的影响。
(2)利用能源技术经济学评价方法—平准化能源成本分析法(Levelized Cost of Energy, LCOE),以火力发电、风力发电和光伏发电为例,比较新能源发电与传统能源发电项目的长期投资平均成本。研究表明,在只考虑环境外部效益而不考虑其他鼓励性政策、补贴的前提下,风力发电项目比火力发电项目具有明显的优势,因此应该改变对新能源成本过高的固有认识。在此基础上,通过计算分析,讨论了影响新能源发展的实际因素,提出了国家应该逐步减少对新能源发电环节的补贴,加强对智能电网建设的支持和新能源设备制造业的支持,这样更有利于我国新能源产业的发展。
(3)深入分析了我国产生弃风现象的原因,指出弃风问题本质是电力系统对风电的消纳能力问题,解决弃风问题需要包括风力发电企业、输配电企业以及用电客户在内的各个环节、各个利益相关方的共同努力。
对我国目前采用的弃风供暖系统和风储联合运行系统进行了综合性分析,通过分析结果可以看出：系统经济效益受限于热电比,只有当热电比介于1到2之间时系统才能盈利,当热电比大于2时系统将一直处于负盈利状态。同时,折现率对系统的经济效益也有较大的影响,折现率越低,系统地经济效益越好。对于风储联合运行系统进行了经济性分析,重点分析了不同储能系统的技术经济性,飞轮储能系统相对于超级电容储能、超导磁储能来说具有较好的经济性。
(4)针对我国新能源发展过程中出现的一系列问题,分析了我国现行的新能源政策、法律、法规。借鉴国外相关国家的发展经验,并结合我国自身条件,对我国现行的新能源政策提出了一些改进建议：从政府的角度出发,政府应当在新能源的利用当中起到带头作用,并为新能源的发展提供相关的政策保证,例如新能源电价、补贴、税收等；从市场的角度出发,应该建立健全的新能源的消费市场；从资源的角度出发,对新能源资源要进行准确的评估。
(5)分析了现行能源价值模型,影子价格模型、边际机会成本模型、收益现值模型、CGE模型等,提出了适合于新能源的包含环境因素和旋转备用因素的新能源价值模型,过该模型可以为新能源发电上网电价的确定和国家对于新能源补贴政策的出台提供理论依据。以风电为例,用该模型进行了实例计算,在考虑环境价值和旋转备用后,风电场在现行上网电价下是具有一定的经济效益的。
Now, fossil energy is the main energy, while the extensive use of fossil fuels has brought the problem of source depletion and climate change. Seeking clean and sustainable energy sources has become an important challenge. People are paying more attention to new energy, such as solar, wind and other new energy because of the characteristics of renewable, clean and pollution-free. In the development process of new energy, the price is the key to energy competition. When the price of new energy and renewable energy is same to the conventional energy, energy placement could be completion in the market. The new energy price influenced by many factors, such as energy policy, technology. A scientific and rational energy development strategy will play an important role in energy revolution.
In this paper, the problem of new energy development encountered such as technology, price, policy and so on, have been in-depth analysis. Based on the analysis results, the government has proposed some recommendations in policy perspective to promote new energy development in a reasonable and efficient way.
The main contents include:
(1) The output characteristic equation and the simulation of the wind power and solar photovoltaic are proposed. Due to the influence of the randomness and volatility of wind and solar sources, the output characteristics of the wind power and photovoltaic power are both randomness and volatility. We also analyzed the impact of the different access patterns of wind power, photovoltaic and distributed energy on the network planning, operation, protection, economic and other aspects.
(2) Analyzing the average investment of the thermal power, wind power and photovoltaic power generation in long-term energy power generation through the levelized cost of energy. Studies have showed that unconsidering the policy of subsidies and other incentives, wind power projects has more obvious advantages than thermal power project. According to that, we should change the understanding about the inherent high cost of new energy. On this basis, through computational analysis, discusses the factors that influence the actual development of new energy power generated. At the presented state, the government should gradually reduce subsidies for new energy power plant, and strengthen support for smart grid construction, and it is more favorable to use new energy generation in electricity demand centers.
(3) Analyzing the reasons of abandoned wind around all the world, through analysis of the reasons of abandoned wind power, indicating the nature of problem is the problem of power system capacity for wind power. In order to solve the problem of abandoned wind, it needs wind power business, lost distribution companies and electricity customers, including all aspects of the various stakeholders to work together.
The abandoned wind power heating systems and wind combined storage system in China are be used to solve the problem of abandan wind power. According the analysed results, the abandoned wind power heating systemare is subject to by electricity-heat ratio. The system is profitability only when the ratio is between1-2, in a state of negative earning when the ratio is greater than2.The discount rate also has a great impact on the economic system, the lower the discount rate, the better the economy. For wind storage system has been jointly run economic analysis, focusing on the technical and economic analysis of different energy storage systems, flywheel energy storage system is better in economic than super-capacitor energy storage, superconducting magnetic energy storage.
(4) We make some suggestions for the development of new energy in China based our current new energy policies, laws and regulatios. From the point of the government, the government should play a leading role, make use of the new energy and provide policies guarntees for the development of new energy. Such as new energy tariffs, subsidies, taxes, etc; from the market point, it should establish new markets and improve the energy consumption; from the point of view of resources, for the new energy resources should be assessment in an accurate way.
(5) Investigating the current energy value models, the shadow price model, the marginal opportunity cost model, the present value of revenue models, the computable general equilibrium model. We proposed a new energy value model, this model includes environmental factors and spinning reserve factors suitable for new energy sources, the new energy model can determine the tariff and statesubsidies for the introduction of new energy policies to provide evidence. Taking wind power as an example, in consideration of environment values and spinning reserve the actual cost of the wind power. Wind power still has some benefits, under tbe current price of on-grid wind power.
引文
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