洞庭湖区复杂防洪系统数值模拟模型研究与应用
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摘要
洞庭湖是我国第二大淡水湖泊,位于长江中游南岸,是历史上长江中下游遭受洪灾最严重的区域之一。三峡工程建成以后,荆江河段的防洪形势得到了根本性的改善,同时也缓解了洞庭湖区的防洪压力,但洞庭湖区洪源多、各路洪水易发生遭遇的基本格局并未改变。同时,随着自然变迁以及大量围垦造田等人类活动的影响,洞庭湖湖面面积与容积一直处于减小状态,湖盆的萎缩抬高了湖区的同流量水位,增加了洪灾的威胁。面对洞庭湖区的防洪研究的实际需求,构建复杂防洪系统数值模型,科学化、系统化、定量化地分析洞庭湖区的防洪形势,研究洞庭湖区的防洪措施,很有必要也很有意义。
洞庭湖区河道及湖泊覆盖面积大,区内河网纵横交错,汊点密布,江、河、湖互相串通,水流相互顶托,流向往复不定,同时,区内修建了各种防洪工程措施抵御洪水的侵袭,给洞庭湖区的复杂防洪系统的构建增加了难度。为此,本文研究了复杂防洪系统数值模拟的理论方法和模型构建,首次实现了洞庭湖区复杂防洪系统的联合调洪模拟,分析了各防洪措施对洞庭湖区的防洪作用,揭示了洞庭湖区的防洪形势。主要研究内容如下：
(1)分析复杂防洪系统的基本元素,针对各基本元素的水流运动特征,提出了满足河道行洪、蓄洪区分洪、水库蓄洪以及水工建筑物调洪模拟功能的复杂防洪系统数值模型的总体结构。为了能精确反映江、河、湖之间的水流交换以及防洪系统各基本元素对水流运动的影响,根据各基本元素的模拟需求,分别给出了河道、湖泊、分蓄洪区、水库、水工建筑物各部分的基础理论。
(2)针对洞庭湖区的洪水特征,构建了洞庭湖区复杂防洪系统数值模型,模拟范围涵盖长江中下游干流、洞庭湖区、鄱阳湖区、长江中下游40处分蓄洪区、三峡水库以及洞庭湖区以防洪为主的水库群、松滋口闸门以及虎渡河南闸。其中,河网和湖泊分别采用一维和二维水动力模型模拟,并将两者耦合；在处理数量众多的分蓄洪区时,将其概化为具有蓄水功能的小水库,利用闸门控制蓄洪区的启用；水库分布在整个模拟范围的上游,将水库调节后的水流过程作为复杂防洪系统数值模型的上边界输入；系统中水工建筑物主要涉及控制蓄洪区分洪的闸门以及调节水流的控制闸,分蓄洪区控制闸的开启方式,以河道的分洪控制水位为目标,调节水流的闸门则通过设置运行调度规则,实现水流调节。
(3)基于复杂防洪系统数值模型,在不启用分蓄洪区的前提下,模拟了三峡水库运用前、三峡水库按荆江补偿调度、三峡水库按城陵矶补偿调度3种情景下,遇1954年型洪水和1998年型洪水,荆江以及洞庭湖区水位与流量过程,分析了三峡水库对荆江和洞庭湖区的防洪作用。同时,模型通过启用各地区的分蓄洪区,计算了长江中下游地区超额洪量的分布,分析了三峡水库运用后,荆江河段和洞庭湖区的防洪形势。
(4)基于并联水库群联合调度理论,构建了澧水水库群联合调度模型,分析了水库群联合调度对澧水洪水的削峰作用。基于洞庭湖区复杂防洪系统数值模型,模拟了长江洪水经三峡水库调蓄后、澧水洪水经江垭和皂市水库联合调度后,松澧地区各水文站的水位过程,分析了澧水水库群联合调度对松澧地区的防洪作用,通过对比最高水位与保证水位的关系,揭示了在三峡水库、江垭水库、皂市水库的共同作用下,洞庭湖区的防洪形势。
(5)在分析松澧地区洪水组成及遭遇的基础上,研究了在不增加荆江防洪压力的前提下,松滋口闸门的错峰调度方式,基于洞庭湖区复杂防洪系统数值模型,分析松滋闸的错峰调度效果。通过对比长江洪水经三峡水库调蓄后、澧水洪江经江垭和皂市水库联合调度后,松滋闸错峰调度前后洞庭湖区和荆江河段最高水位的变化,分析松滋闸错峰调度对洞庭湖区的防洪作用以及对荆江河段的防洪影响。
The Dongting Lake is the second largest freshwater lake in China, located in the south bank of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. It is not only an important China production base of commodity grain, fish, cotton and hemp, but also one of the regions suffered the worst floods in the history in the middle&lower reaches of the Yangtze River. After operation of the Three Gorges Project, the flood control in the middle&lower reaches of the Yangtze River has been greatly improved. So does it in Jingjiang and Dongting Lake areas. But when the flood of Dongting Lake comes from Xiang River, Zi River, Yuan River and Li River, the Three Gorges Reservoir is unable to play the role of flood control in Dongting Lake area and its flood control situation is still very serious. The Lake area is featured with large river and lake covering, complex river networks, connected parts between lakes and rivers, and uncertain flow directions. Also, there are various hydraulic structures to control flood, which makes Dongting Lake area become a complex flood control system, including rivers, lakes, reservoirs, flood diversion&storage area, and hydraulic structures.
In order to accurately evaluate impacts of the water exchange among rivers, lakes and other basic elements in flood control system, the paper firstly analyzes the flow characteristics of the basic elements in flood control, and then presents the general structure of numerical model in such complex system. Combined flood diversion area model and hydraulic structures operation model in MIKE, a new numerical model named complex flood control system model was developed to achieve global flood control simulation with appropriate information transfer among basic elements, including flood routing of river, flood control of lakes and reservoirs, flood storage of flood diversion&storage area, and flood control of hydraulic structures.
On the other hand, according to the complexity of the flow and the simulation requirements in the system, the new model expands the simulation scope to Datong station, which covers Yangtze River, Dongting Lake area, Poyang Lake area, and the main branches in the middle&lower reaches of the Yangtze River. In the process of parameter calibration, initial bed roughness is set according to different river reach, and the bed roughness of specific river reach in various water levers according to its cross-section composition is also set. Overall calibration of roughness is processing with slightly adjusting local bed roughness until the calculated values of water level and discharge meet required accuracy. The agreement between the calculated and measured flood process is identified by calculating the Nash-Sutcliffe and deterministic coefficient. The model's accuracy is evaluated based on the relative error between the calculated and measured flood peaks and the absolute error between the calculated and measured highest water levels. The test results indicate that the model is capable of simulating flood process and its peak with good accuracy.
On the analysis of flood formation and transformation, the new model is employed to simulate the water level-discharge relation in Jingjiang and Dongting Lake areas in the following three cases:no storage regulation of the Three Gorges, operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir considering the Jingjiang River flood control, and operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir considering the Chenglingji flood control, which all encountered the flood in1954and1998respectively. According to the simulated results, the flood controls in Jiangjiang and Dongting Lake areas are assessed, and the distribution of extra flood discharge is calculated in the middle&lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The flood control after taking diverting flood in each diversion area is also assessed in the two areas.
Quantitative analysis of Dongting Lake's flood control after the operation of the Three Gorges Dam indicates key zones of the frequent flooding in the Lake and its formation. Effective measures were suggested based on the analysis and requirements of flood control. The calculation using the new model quantitatively evaluates that the suggested measures are able to reduce flood risk to the Lake. This study introduces two measures:the joint operation reservoir system and flood peak alteration using gates, and recommends flood peak alteration schemes for the Songzi Gates, and also analyzes effects from joint operation of Jingya and Zaoshi reservoirs and effects from Songzi Gates' alteration. Using the model, quantitative studies are conducted on effects from flood control in Jingjiang and Dongting Lake areas after adopting the proposed measures, and risk to Dongting Lake without changing Jinjiang flood control schemes.
Simulation results indicate that the joint operation of Jiangya and Zaoshi reservoirs can effectively reduce the flood peak for the flooding from branches of the Sishui River, but it fails to control the peak flow under the safety discharge for the flooding from the Sishui River. The flood stage in the Songsi Area can be effectively reduced after joint operation of the two reservoirs. Since the flooding peak in this area is mainly from the Sishui River, the flood stage in the area is still above the safety stage even after Three Gorges Dam's operation. In case of the flood peak in Songsi area above control discharge, implementation of flood peak alteration using the Songzi Gates can effectively alter the flood discharge from the Yangtze River to Songzi River, and reduce the flood stage in the area. But after taking joint operation of the two reservoirs, the flood peak is still beyond safety discharge even though no water flows through the Songzi Gates. On the other hand, peak alteration using the Songzi Gates can increase the water lever in Jingjiang river reach a little. But the increased highest water lever is still below the safety stage at Shashi station. Therefore, implementations of both dredging the Songzi River and altering flood peak with Songzi Gates can ensure the flood control in the Songzi area without changing Jingjiang flood control schemes.
洞庭湖区河道及湖泊覆盖面积大,区内河网纵横交错,汊点密布,江、河、湖互相串通,水流相互顶托,流向往复不定,同时,区内修建了各种防洪工程措施抵御洪水的侵袭,给洞庭湖区的复杂防洪系统的构建增加了难度。为此,本文研究了复杂防洪系统数值模拟的理论方法和模型构建,首次实现了洞庭湖区复杂防洪系统的联合调洪模拟,分析了各防洪措施对洞庭湖区的防洪作用,揭示了洞庭湖区的防洪形势。主要研究内容如下：
(1)分析复杂防洪系统的基本元素,针对各基本元素的水流运动特征,提出了满足河道行洪、蓄洪区分洪、水库蓄洪以及水工建筑物调洪模拟功能的复杂防洪系统数值模型的总体结构。为了能精确反映江、河、湖之间的水流交换以及防洪系统各基本元素对水流运动的影响,根据各基本元素的模拟需求,分别给出了河道、湖泊、分蓄洪区、水库、水工建筑物各部分的基础理论。
(2)针对洞庭湖区的洪水特征,构建了洞庭湖区复杂防洪系统数值模型,模拟范围涵盖长江中下游干流、洞庭湖区、鄱阳湖区、长江中下游40处分蓄洪区、三峡水库以及洞庭湖区以防洪为主的水库群、松滋口闸门以及虎渡河南闸。其中,河网和湖泊分别采用一维和二维水动力模型模拟,并将两者耦合；在处理数量众多的分蓄洪区时,将其概化为具有蓄水功能的小水库,利用闸门控制蓄洪区的启用；水库分布在整个模拟范围的上游,将水库调节后的水流过程作为复杂防洪系统数值模型的上边界输入；系统中水工建筑物主要涉及控制蓄洪区分洪的闸门以及调节水流的控制闸,分蓄洪区控制闸的开启方式,以河道的分洪控制水位为目标,调节水流的闸门则通过设置运行调度规则,实现水流调节。
(3)基于复杂防洪系统数值模型,在不启用分蓄洪区的前提下,模拟了三峡水库运用前、三峡水库按荆江补偿调度、三峡水库按城陵矶补偿调度3种情景下,遇1954年型洪水和1998年型洪水,荆江以及洞庭湖区水位与流量过程,分析了三峡水库对荆江和洞庭湖区的防洪作用。同时,模型通过启用各地区的分蓄洪区,计算了长江中下游地区超额洪量的分布,分析了三峡水库运用后,荆江河段和洞庭湖区的防洪形势。
(4)基于并联水库群联合调度理论,构建了澧水水库群联合调度模型,分析了水库群联合调度对澧水洪水的削峰作用。基于洞庭湖区复杂防洪系统数值模型,模拟了长江洪水经三峡水库调蓄后、澧水洪水经江垭和皂市水库联合调度后,松澧地区各水文站的水位过程,分析了澧水水库群联合调度对松澧地区的防洪作用,通过对比最高水位与保证水位的关系,揭示了在三峡水库、江垭水库、皂市水库的共同作用下,洞庭湖区的防洪形势。
(5)在分析松澧地区洪水组成及遭遇的基础上,研究了在不增加荆江防洪压力的前提下,松滋口闸门的错峰调度方式,基于洞庭湖区复杂防洪系统数值模型,分析松滋闸的错峰调度效果。通过对比长江洪水经三峡水库调蓄后、澧水洪江经江垭和皂市水库联合调度后,松滋闸错峰调度前后洞庭湖区和荆江河段最高水位的变化,分析松滋闸错峰调度对洞庭湖区的防洪作用以及对荆江河段的防洪影响。
The Dongting Lake is the second largest freshwater lake in China, located in the south bank of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. It is not only an important China production base of commodity grain, fish, cotton and hemp, but also one of the regions suffered the worst floods in the history in the middle&lower reaches of the Yangtze River. After operation of the Three Gorges Project, the flood control in the middle&lower reaches of the Yangtze River has been greatly improved. So does it in Jingjiang and Dongting Lake areas. But when the flood of Dongting Lake comes from Xiang River, Zi River, Yuan River and Li River, the Three Gorges Reservoir is unable to play the role of flood control in Dongting Lake area and its flood control situation is still very serious. The Lake area is featured with large river and lake covering, complex river networks, connected parts between lakes and rivers, and uncertain flow directions. Also, there are various hydraulic structures to control flood, which makes Dongting Lake area become a complex flood control system, including rivers, lakes, reservoirs, flood diversion&storage area, and hydraulic structures.
In order to accurately evaluate impacts of the water exchange among rivers, lakes and other basic elements in flood control system, the paper firstly analyzes the flow characteristics of the basic elements in flood control, and then presents the general structure of numerical model in such complex system. Combined flood diversion area model and hydraulic structures operation model in MIKE, a new numerical model named complex flood control system model was developed to achieve global flood control simulation with appropriate information transfer among basic elements, including flood routing of river, flood control of lakes and reservoirs, flood storage of flood diversion&storage area, and flood control of hydraulic structures.
On the other hand, according to the complexity of the flow and the simulation requirements in the system, the new model expands the simulation scope to Datong station, which covers Yangtze River, Dongting Lake area, Poyang Lake area, and the main branches in the middle&lower reaches of the Yangtze River. In the process of parameter calibration, initial bed roughness is set according to different river reach, and the bed roughness of specific river reach in various water levers according to its cross-section composition is also set. Overall calibration of roughness is processing with slightly adjusting local bed roughness until the calculated values of water level and discharge meet required accuracy. The agreement between the calculated and measured flood process is identified by calculating the Nash-Sutcliffe and deterministic coefficient. The model's accuracy is evaluated based on the relative error between the calculated and measured flood peaks and the absolute error between the calculated and measured highest water levels. The test results indicate that the model is capable of simulating flood process and its peak with good accuracy.
On the analysis of flood formation and transformation, the new model is employed to simulate the water level-discharge relation in Jingjiang and Dongting Lake areas in the following three cases:no storage regulation of the Three Gorges, operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir considering the Jingjiang River flood control, and operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir considering the Chenglingji flood control, which all encountered the flood in1954and1998respectively. According to the simulated results, the flood controls in Jiangjiang and Dongting Lake areas are assessed, and the distribution of extra flood discharge is calculated in the middle&lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The flood control after taking diverting flood in each diversion area is also assessed in the two areas.
Quantitative analysis of Dongting Lake's flood control after the operation of the Three Gorges Dam indicates key zones of the frequent flooding in the Lake and its formation. Effective measures were suggested based on the analysis and requirements of flood control. The calculation using the new model quantitatively evaluates that the suggested measures are able to reduce flood risk to the Lake. This study introduces two measures:the joint operation reservoir system and flood peak alteration using gates, and recommends flood peak alteration schemes for the Songzi Gates, and also analyzes effects from joint operation of Jingya and Zaoshi reservoirs and effects from Songzi Gates' alteration. Using the model, quantitative studies are conducted on effects from flood control in Jingjiang and Dongting Lake areas after adopting the proposed measures, and risk to Dongting Lake without changing Jinjiang flood control schemes.
Simulation results indicate that the joint operation of Jiangya and Zaoshi reservoirs can effectively reduce the flood peak for the flooding from branches of the Sishui River, but it fails to control the peak flow under the safety discharge for the flooding from the Sishui River. The flood stage in the Songsi Area can be effectively reduced after joint operation of the two reservoirs. Since the flooding peak in this area is mainly from the Sishui River, the flood stage in the area is still above the safety stage even after Three Gorges Dam's operation. In case of the flood peak in Songsi area above control discharge, implementation of flood peak alteration using the Songzi Gates can effectively alter the flood discharge from the Yangtze River to Songzi River, and reduce the flood stage in the area. But after taking joint operation of the two reservoirs, the flood peak is still beyond safety discharge even though no water flows through the Songzi Gates. On the other hand, peak alteration using the Songzi Gates can increase the water lever in Jingjiang river reach a little. But the increased highest water lever is still below the safety stage at Shashi station. Therefore, implementations of both dredging the Songzi River and altering flood peak with Songzi Gates can ensure the flood control in the Songzi area without changing Jingjiang flood control schemes.
引文
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