环渤海地区海陆客货滚装无缝运输系统研究
摘要
本文在广泛深入调查分析的基础上,提出一种新型综合运输系统方案,即海陆客货滚装无缝运输系统。论文主要围绕海陆客货滚装无缝运输系统的运输经济性、船桥连接技术、适航船型经济性、安全性以及系统方案设计等几个主要环节进行深入地研究论证。
首先,利用运输经济理论,建立了环渤海地区集装箱公路直达运输、海—公联运、铁路直达运输和海—铁联运四种运输方式的运费计算模型,对四种方式的经济性作了初步测算和分析,进而对不同城市间不同运输方式的经济性做出评价。
其次,提出一种能够使大型公、铁滚装船方便、高效地与码头连接的船桥连接新技术,即新型柔性轨道和连接桥技术,并对柔性轨道的弯曲变形量及变形与受力的关系做出定量的理论计算,论证其实际可行性。
再次,对滚装客船船型进行经济性分析。首次采用换算车道长度的概念,建立统一的换算运输单位,对不同船型的运输经济性进行了测算、分析,并采用逐项替换法对船舶装载率和运费率两个主要参数做出敏感性分析,为进一步深入、全面地研究论证渤海湾滚装客船船型提供参照。
然后,利用系统工程理论,对渤海湾客滚运输事故原因进行系统的统计分析,建立了基于故障树分析(FTA)技术的客滚运输航行风险分析模型,对客滚运输风险进行了定性和定量分析。定性分析中,利用Semanderes算法求出故障树的最小割集,据此分析出系统的薄弱环节;定量分析中,基于容斥定理设计了顶事件概率的求解算法:计算出了各底事件的概率重要度和关键重要度,以此来分析影响渤海湾客滚运输安全性的关键因素所在。在此基础上,提出了提高客滚运输安全性的管理对策。
最后,结合当今科技发展水平和有关机构近年来做的科研工作,首次设计出了环渤海海陆客货滚装无缝运输系统初步方案,探讨了区域无缝运输流程和管理问题。
论文从理论上证明了客货滚装无缝运输系统新方案的技术可行性、经济合理性和运输过程的安全性,为进一步深入、全面的研究环渤海海陆客货滚装无缝运输系统,特别是详细研究其中一些技术创新和管理创新细节,为将来对整个运输方案的应用设计提供了理论基础和参考数据。
This dissertation puts forward a new concept of comprehensive transportation: sea-land ro-pax vessels seamless transportation, which is based on the comprehensive investigations and analysis. This dissertation mainly focus on the investigations of the following aspects: the economics of sea-land ro-pax vessels seamless transportation, ship-bridge connection technique, economics of seaworthiness ship type, safety and system design.
Firstly, on the basis of economics theory, cost calculation models of four different types of transportation (road-road by container, sea-road, train-train and sea-train) were developed. Preliminary calculation and analysis on economics for the four types of transportation were made.
Secondly, new ship-bridge connections technology, new flexible railway and connection bridge, was put forward for better connection. Also, from the perspective of practical application, the bending deflection and the relationship between deflection and force exerted were calculated based on the theory of engineering mechanics.
Thirdly, the economics of seaworthiness ship type was analyzed. A concept of railway length conversion was employed to standardize the transportation unit for the first time. The calculation and analysis on the transportation economics were made. Method of one by one substitution was employed to analyze the sensitiveness of loading ratio and cost ratio aiming to provide reference on the choice of ship type.
Fourthly, based on the theory of system engineering, the causes of ship accidents were statistically analyzed. And risk analysis model of ro-ro passenger transportation were made based on FTA. For the qualitative analysis, the Minimal Cut Sets was calculated based on Semanderes, thus the poor aspects were found for the system. For the quantitative analysis, however, calculation of top event was made based on Inclusion-Exclusion principle and probability-significance and key significance for the bottom events were calculated to analyze the key factors influencing the safety of ro-ro transportation. After that, management measures to improve transportation safety were put forward.
Finally, preliminary scheme of sea-land passenger and cargo seamless transportation was designed and regional seamless transportation flow and management were discussed based on the science and technology development and some related research.
The possibility, economical reasonability and safety of sea-land passenger and cargo seamless transportation were approved theoretically. This dissertation can provide theory and data for the future application design and further study of the scheme, especially for the technology and management innovation.
首先,利用运输经济理论,建立了环渤海地区集装箱公路直达运输、海—公联运、铁路直达运输和海—铁联运四种运输方式的运费计算模型,对四种方式的经济性作了初步测算和分析,进而对不同城市间不同运输方式的经济性做出评价。
其次,提出一种能够使大型公、铁滚装船方便、高效地与码头连接的船桥连接新技术,即新型柔性轨道和连接桥技术,并对柔性轨道的弯曲变形量及变形与受力的关系做出定量的理论计算,论证其实际可行性。
再次,对滚装客船船型进行经济性分析。首次采用换算车道长度的概念,建立统一的换算运输单位,对不同船型的运输经济性进行了测算、分析,并采用逐项替换法对船舶装载率和运费率两个主要参数做出敏感性分析,为进一步深入、全面地研究论证渤海湾滚装客船船型提供参照。
然后,利用系统工程理论,对渤海湾客滚运输事故原因进行系统的统计分析,建立了基于故障树分析(FTA)技术的客滚运输航行风险分析模型,对客滚运输风险进行了定性和定量分析。定性分析中,利用Semanderes算法求出故障树的最小割集,据此分析出系统的薄弱环节;定量分析中,基于容斥定理设计了顶事件概率的求解算法:计算出了各底事件的概率重要度和关键重要度,以此来分析影响渤海湾客滚运输安全性的关键因素所在。在此基础上,提出了提高客滚运输安全性的管理对策。
最后,结合当今科技发展水平和有关机构近年来做的科研工作,首次设计出了环渤海海陆客货滚装无缝运输系统初步方案,探讨了区域无缝运输流程和管理问题。
论文从理论上证明了客货滚装无缝运输系统新方案的技术可行性、经济合理性和运输过程的安全性,为进一步深入、全面的研究环渤海海陆客货滚装无缝运输系统,特别是详细研究其中一些技术创新和管理创新细节,为将来对整个运输方案的应用设计提供了理论基础和参考数据。
This dissertation puts forward a new concept of comprehensive transportation: sea-land ro-pax vessels seamless transportation, which is based on the comprehensive investigations and analysis. This dissertation mainly focus on the investigations of the following aspects: the economics of sea-land ro-pax vessels seamless transportation, ship-bridge connection technique, economics of seaworthiness ship type, safety and system design.
Firstly, on the basis of economics theory, cost calculation models of four different types of transportation (road-road by container, sea-road, train-train and sea-train) were developed. Preliminary calculation and analysis on economics for the four types of transportation were made.
Secondly, new ship-bridge connections technology, new flexible railway and connection bridge, was put forward for better connection. Also, from the perspective of practical application, the bending deflection and the relationship between deflection and force exerted were calculated based on the theory of engineering mechanics.
Thirdly, the economics of seaworthiness ship type was analyzed. A concept of railway length conversion was employed to standardize the transportation unit for the first time. The calculation and analysis on the transportation economics were made. Method of one by one substitution was employed to analyze the sensitiveness of loading ratio and cost ratio aiming to provide reference on the choice of ship type.
Fourthly, based on the theory of system engineering, the causes of ship accidents were statistically analyzed. And risk analysis model of ro-ro passenger transportation were made based on FTA. For the qualitative analysis, the Minimal Cut Sets was calculated based on Semanderes, thus the poor aspects were found for the system. For the quantitative analysis, however, calculation of top event was made based on Inclusion-Exclusion principle and probability-significance and key significance for the bottom events were calculated to analyze the key factors influencing the safety of ro-ro transportation. After that, management measures to improve transportation safety were put forward.
Finally, preliminary scheme of sea-land passenger and cargo seamless transportation was designed and regional seamless transportation flow and management were discussed based on the science and technology development and some related research.
The possibility, economical reasonability and safety of sea-land passenger and cargo seamless transportation were approved theoretically. This dissertation can provide theory and data for the future application design and further study of the scheme, especially for the technology and management innovation.
引文
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