基于突变理论的海上交通风险预测研究
摘要
作为经济发展的支柱产业,航运业承担着超过90%的全球贸易货物运输。但与此同时,高风险也成为航运业的显著特征,海事造成的各方面损失远远高于其它交通形式。伴随国民经济的发展,以及世界经济一体化的不断加深,如何有效地预测和降低海上交通风险成为国际性的焦点和难点。
开展海上交通风险预测研究,在提高海上交通运输安全、预防海上交通事故发生、降低海上交通风险、保护海洋环境的同时,适应了国家经济发展、国家安全和科学发展观的重大需求,具有巨大的社会、经济和环境效益。
以系统学原理为基础,突变理论为工具,揭示了海上交通风险的演化、评价、预测的一般规律和方法,提出海上交通安全系统动力学机制的思想及理论框架体系,为海上交通风险预测研究提供新思路,对于预防海上交通事故发生具有理论和现实意义。
针对由“人—船—环境”三要素组成的海上交通安全系统,确立了以突变理论为工具研究海上交通安全系统的思路；基于该系统的突变结构,建立了海上交通安全系统尖点突变势函数结构模型,并推导出使系统结构失稳的分叉集方程,用来表征海上交通安全系统演化的动态本质；通过对系统状态的剖析,提出了系统特征演化曲线以及海上交通安全系统的安全演化模式、事故演化模式、风险演化模式；利用胞映射理论阐述三种演化模式的形成、相互转化及作用机理,用于海上交通风险演化模式的进一步研究。
针对海上交通风险模式中存在相对性、动态性、模糊性、突变性等不确定特质,分析了传统风险评价方法的局限性；在传统风险模型基础上汲取模糊综合评价法的精华,将模糊突变原理应用于海上交通风险领域；在构建海上交通风险评价指标体系的基础上,建立了基于模糊突变的海上交通风险综合评价模型,该模型仅需考虑评价指标的相对排序,有效降低了评价工作的主观性,提高了风险评价的准确性和效率,进一步可以用于判断海上交通安全系统的安全等级。
针对由海上交通风险评价值组成的时间序列散点,结合灰色理论的优势,构建海上交通安全系统演化的灰色时间序列模型,通过推导出该灰色时间序列模型具有尖点突变结构,从而界定出海上交通风险的可预测性条件；在此基础上,以系统突变点、突变时间、突变方向、风险致因能力、风险致因效率为研究对象,建立了基于灰色突变的海上交通风险预测模型；对某港口突变点前后的安全状况进行调查与分析,从宏观上评价海上交通环境风险；确定出海上交通环境突变时间及突变点后,基于“人—船—环境”对该港口突变点前后的安全状况进行风险评价与预测；通过将预测结果与模糊综合评价结果进行比较,验证模型的科学性与先进性。
As a pillar industry for economic development, the shipping industry bears over90%of the global cargo transportation. Meanwhile, high-risk has been a significant feature of the shipping industry and as a consequence, damages and losses resulted in various aspects are far more than that incurred in any other forms of transportation. With the rapid development of China's economy and the ever-deepening global economic integration, the issue of how to effectively predict and reduce maritime traffic risks has become a worldwide concern and a difficult point as well.
Carrying out risk predictions for maritime traffic is of profound significance:it contributes not only to the enhancement of marine transportation safety and prevention of accident occurrence at sea, but also to the risk reduction and marine environment protection. This research meets the major demands of the national economy development, national security and scientific development concept as well, which is to bring huge social, economic and environmental benefits.
The general rules and approaches to evolution, assessment, prediction and control of maritime traffic risks are revealed in this dissertation based on systematic principles and by application of catastrophe theory. To establish an ideological and theoretical framework of dynamics mechanism for maritime traffic safety system is also proposed in this dissertation, which presents a new idea for maritime traffic risks research with profound theoretical and practical significance.
In light of the maritime traffic safety system comprising the three elements (namely "Man-Ship-Environment"), the approach of employing catastrophe theory as a tool to study the maritime traffic safety system is established, and a system cusp catastrophe potential function structural model with universal application based on the catastrophe structure of this system is presented. Furthermore, bifurcation set equations which contribute to structural instability are also derived to characterize the dynamic nature of the evolution of maritime traffic safety system. By analyzing the system state, both the evolution curve of system characteristics and evolution model of maritime traffic safety, along with the accident evolution model and the risk evolution model, are defined. The cell mapping theory is applied not only to describe the formation, mutual transformation and mechanism of these three evolution models, but also is to be used for further maritime traffic risk evolution model research.
In allusion to the uncertainties of marine traffic risks, such as relativity, dynamics, ambiguity and mutability, limitations of traditional risk assessment methods are analyzed. By way of traditional risk model to derive the essence of fuzzy comprehensive assessment, fuzzy catastrophe principle is for the first time used in the field of maritime traffic risks. The comprehensive assessment model based on fuzzy catastrophe of marine traffic risk is established on the basis of maritime transportation risk assessment system. For this model, only relative ranking of assessment indicatives needs to be taken into consideration, therefore the subjectivity of assessment is effectively overcome and accuracy and efficiency of the risk assessment improved.
On account of time series scattered points which are composed of maritime traffic safety system evolution values combined with the advantages of gray theory, gray time series model of the maritime traffic risk is established. With the derived sharp point catastrophes structure of this gray time series model, predictable conditions of maritime traffic risk are defined. And on that basis, taking the catastrophe point, catastrophe time, catastrophe direction, risk-causing capability and risk-causing efficiency as research objects, the maritime traffic risk prediction model is built based on gray catastrophe. After data consistency examination Expert Questionnaire is utilized to carry out safety assessment on different vessels in a certain port and to make risk predictions for the involved ships. By comparing the prediction result with the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method, the scientific nature and advancement of the model is verified.
开展海上交通风险预测研究,在提高海上交通运输安全、预防海上交通事故发生、降低海上交通风险、保护海洋环境的同时,适应了国家经济发展、国家安全和科学发展观的重大需求,具有巨大的社会、经济和环境效益。
以系统学原理为基础,突变理论为工具,揭示了海上交通风险的演化、评价、预测的一般规律和方法,提出海上交通安全系统动力学机制的思想及理论框架体系,为海上交通风险预测研究提供新思路,对于预防海上交通事故发生具有理论和现实意义。
针对由“人—船—环境”三要素组成的海上交通安全系统,确立了以突变理论为工具研究海上交通安全系统的思路；基于该系统的突变结构,建立了海上交通安全系统尖点突变势函数结构模型,并推导出使系统结构失稳的分叉集方程,用来表征海上交通安全系统演化的动态本质；通过对系统状态的剖析,提出了系统特征演化曲线以及海上交通安全系统的安全演化模式、事故演化模式、风险演化模式；利用胞映射理论阐述三种演化模式的形成、相互转化及作用机理,用于海上交通风险演化模式的进一步研究。
针对海上交通风险模式中存在相对性、动态性、模糊性、突变性等不确定特质,分析了传统风险评价方法的局限性；在传统风险模型基础上汲取模糊综合评价法的精华,将模糊突变原理应用于海上交通风险领域；在构建海上交通风险评价指标体系的基础上,建立了基于模糊突变的海上交通风险综合评价模型,该模型仅需考虑评价指标的相对排序,有效降低了评价工作的主观性,提高了风险评价的准确性和效率,进一步可以用于判断海上交通安全系统的安全等级。
针对由海上交通风险评价值组成的时间序列散点,结合灰色理论的优势,构建海上交通安全系统演化的灰色时间序列模型,通过推导出该灰色时间序列模型具有尖点突变结构,从而界定出海上交通风险的可预测性条件；在此基础上,以系统突变点、突变时间、突变方向、风险致因能力、风险致因效率为研究对象,建立了基于灰色突变的海上交通风险预测模型；对某港口突变点前后的安全状况进行调查与分析,从宏观上评价海上交通环境风险；确定出海上交通环境突变时间及突变点后,基于“人—船—环境”对该港口突变点前后的安全状况进行风险评价与预测；通过将预测结果与模糊综合评价结果进行比较,验证模型的科学性与先进性。
As a pillar industry for economic development, the shipping industry bears over90%of the global cargo transportation. Meanwhile, high-risk has been a significant feature of the shipping industry and as a consequence, damages and losses resulted in various aspects are far more than that incurred in any other forms of transportation. With the rapid development of China's economy and the ever-deepening global economic integration, the issue of how to effectively predict and reduce maritime traffic risks has become a worldwide concern and a difficult point as well.
Carrying out risk predictions for maritime traffic is of profound significance:it contributes not only to the enhancement of marine transportation safety and prevention of accident occurrence at sea, but also to the risk reduction and marine environment protection. This research meets the major demands of the national economy development, national security and scientific development concept as well, which is to bring huge social, economic and environmental benefits.
The general rules and approaches to evolution, assessment, prediction and control of maritime traffic risks are revealed in this dissertation based on systematic principles and by application of catastrophe theory. To establish an ideological and theoretical framework of dynamics mechanism for maritime traffic safety system is also proposed in this dissertation, which presents a new idea for maritime traffic risks research with profound theoretical and practical significance.
In light of the maritime traffic safety system comprising the three elements (namely "Man-Ship-Environment"), the approach of employing catastrophe theory as a tool to study the maritime traffic safety system is established, and a system cusp catastrophe potential function structural model with universal application based on the catastrophe structure of this system is presented. Furthermore, bifurcation set equations which contribute to structural instability are also derived to characterize the dynamic nature of the evolution of maritime traffic safety system. By analyzing the system state, both the evolution curve of system characteristics and evolution model of maritime traffic safety, along with the accident evolution model and the risk evolution model, are defined. The cell mapping theory is applied not only to describe the formation, mutual transformation and mechanism of these three evolution models, but also is to be used for further maritime traffic risk evolution model research.
In allusion to the uncertainties of marine traffic risks, such as relativity, dynamics, ambiguity and mutability, limitations of traditional risk assessment methods are analyzed. By way of traditional risk model to derive the essence of fuzzy comprehensive assessment, fuzzy catastrophe principle is for the first time used in the field of maritime traffic risks. The comprehensive assessment model based on fuzzy catastrophe of marine traffic risk is established on the basis of maritime transportation risk assessment system. For this model, only relative ranking of assessment indicatives needs to be taken into consideration, therefore the subjectivity of assessment is effectively overcome and accuracy and efficiency of the risk assessment improved.
On account of time series scattered points which are composed of maritime traffic safety system evolution values combined with the advantages of gray theory, gray time series model of the maritime traffic risk is established. With the derived sharp point catastrophes structure of this gray time series model, predictable conditions of maritime traffic risk are defined. And on that basis, taking the catastrophe point, catastrophe time, catastrophe direction, risk-causing capability and risk-causing efficiency as research objects, the maritime traffic risk prediction model is built based on gray catastrophe. After data consistency examination Expert Questionnaire is utilized to carry out safety assessment on different vessels in a certain port and to make risk predictions for the involved ships. By comparing the prediction result with the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method, the scientific nature and advancement of the model is verified.
引文
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