海南省环境资源CGE模型研究
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摘要
20世纪60年代以后,在全球经济快速增长的同时,自然资源短缺、生态环境恶化的问题给人类社会带来了空前的挑战。人们在反思一系列全球生态环境问题对经济发展所带来的影响和危害时,认识到新的人类社会发展战略应当建立在自然资源可持续利用基础上,经济发展应与环境保护相互协调,在加快经济增长速度时更关注经济增长质量,实现经济的可持续发展。本文应用CGE模型的相关理论和研究成果,结合环境资源价值核算的方法,探讨如何构建环境资源CGE(Environmental and Resource CGE, ERCGE)模型。然后,以海南省的数据为基础,运用所构建的ERCGE模型,模拟分析和定量估计一定的环境政策对海南省经济总量和不同产业、部门的潜在影响与冲击效应,为其资源环境决策提供科学的参考依据,帮助实现海南省国民经济的可持续协调发展。
全文共八章,主要为ERCGE模型的构建,海南省环境资源SAM (Environmental and Resource SAM, ERSAM)的编制,以及环境资源政策模拟仿真。
第一章绪论。简要说明本研究的背景和研究问题,研究的目的、方法,研究思路和创新之处,以及全文结构。
第二章CGE模型理论综述。介绍CGE模型的理论发展,模型的基本原理,模型的计算机实现,以及CGE模型在环境资源经济领域的应用。为构建ERCGE模型提供理论依据。
第三章环境资源CGE (ERCGE)模型构建。探讨将环境资源纳入CGE模型的方法,构建ERCGE模型的基本结构,建立ERCGE模型方程。
第四章ERCGE模型数据和参数标定。本章以海南省的数据为基础编制ERSAM,根据所编制的ERSAM标定ERCGE模型参数。
第五章环境资源价值核算方法。简要介绍资源价值和环境污染价值核算方法,确定本研究所使用的核算方法。运用选定的核算方法估算海南省资源价格和环境污染治理成本。
第六章海南省经济发展与资源环境状况。简要介绍海南省经济发展状况和资源环境状况。
第七章环境政策模拟结果及其分析。根据所设定的情景方案模拟分析资源价格和环境污染治理成本的变化对于经济整体的影响。模拟方案的结果说明考虑环境虚拟治理成本,以及征收资源税对于宏观经济总量和资源的使用量影响不大。因而表明在海南省对资源使用征税以及考虑环境虚拟治理成本,不会导致经济整体的剧烈波动。由于征收资源税,资源使用量出现减少的情况,这有利于节约使用资源和提高资源使用效率。
第八章总结与讨论。总结本文内容和研究结论,提出进一步完善模型的设想。
After 1960’s, when global economy rapidly grows, the problems of lack of natural resource and degradation of ecological environment greatly challenge human beings. While reflecting influence and damage on economic development resulted from a series of problems of global ecological environment, human realize that new strategy of social development should be based on sustainable usage of natural resource, be more concerned about quality of economic growth, harmonize economic development with environmental protection, and achieve sustainable economic development. This dissertation discusses how to build environmental and resource CGE(ERCGE) model with CGE theory and achievement and methods of accounting environment and natural resource value. Further, it simulates, analyzes and quantitatively evaluates potential impacts and effects on Hainan macroeconomy and productive sectors by presuming certain environment policies, which provides scientific reference for environment and natural resource decision-making, and benefits sustainable economic development in Hainan.
This dissertation consists of eight chapters, and mainly includes construction of ERCGE model, establishment of Hainan provincial environmental and resource SAM(ERSAM) and simulation analysis of environment and resource policies.
ChapterⅠPreface. This chapter briefly presents research background, problems, purpose, methods, approaches, innovation and structure of the whole paper.
ChapterⅡSummary of CGE theory. This chapter introduces CGE theory development, basic principles of CGE model, parameters evaluation, implementation of CGE model by software, and application CGE model to the area of environmental and resource economy, which provides theoretic reference for constructing ERCGE model.
ChapterⅢConstruction of ERCGE model. It discusses how to integrate environment and natural resource into CGE model, and form basic structure and equations of ERCGE model.
ChapterⅣNumerical specification and Calibration of ERCGE model. It establishes ERSAM on the basis of Hainan provincial data, and estimates parameters by ERSAM.
ChapterⅤMethods of accounting environment and natural resource value. This chapter introduces and determines the approaches of accounting natural resource value and environmental control cost. In accordance with the methods, it calculates Hainan natural resource price and environmental cost.
ChapterⅥEconomic development and environmental and natural resource status in Hainan. It concisely describes economic development, and the environment and resource state in Hainan. ChapterⅦSimulation analysis of environment policies. This chapter analyzes impacts on provincial economy caused by changes of natural resource price and environmental cost according to the presumed simulation scenes. The results of simulation show that consideration of virtual environment cost and resource tax has little impacts on macroeconomy and natural resource input, which reveals that such policies will not lead great economic fluctuation. Because of resource tax, natural resource input will reduce and benefit resource saving and improving efficiency of resource input.
ChapterⅧSummary and discussion. It summarizes the content and conclusion of this dissertation, and further proposes assumption of improving the models.
全文共八章,主要为ERCGE模型的构建,海南省环境资源SAM (Environmental and Resource SAM, ERSAM)的编制,以及环境资源政策模拟仿真。
第一章绪论。简要说明本研究的背景和研究问题,研究的目的、方法,研究思路和创新之处,以及全文结构。
第二章CGE模型理论综述。介绍CGE模型的理论发展,模型的基本原理,模型的计算机实现,以及CGE模型在环境资源经济领域的应用。为构建ERCGE模型提供理论依据。
第三章环境资源CGE (ERCGE)模型构建。探讨将环境资源纳入CGE模型的方法,构建ERCGE模型的基本结构,建立ERCGE模型方程。
第四章ERCGE模型数据和参数标定。本章以海南省的数据为基础编制ERSAM,根据所编制的ERSAM标定ERCGE模型参数。
第五章环境资源价值核算方法。简要介绍资源价值和环境污染价值核算方法,确定本研究所使用的核算方法。运用选定的核算方法估算海南省资源价格和环境污染治理成本。
第六章海南省经济发展与资源环境状况。简要介绍海南省经济发展状况和资源环境状况。
第七章环境政策模拟结果及其分析。根据所设定的情景方案模拟分析资源价格和环境污染治理成本的变化对于经济整体的影响。模拟方案的结果说明考虑环境虚拟治理成本,以及征收资源税对于宏观经济总量和资源的使用量影响不大。因而表明在海南省对资源使用征税以及考虑环境虚拟治理成本,不会导致经济整体的剧烈波动。由于征收资源税,资源使用量出现减少的情况,这有利于节约使用资源和提高资源使用效率。
第八章总结与讨论。总结本文内容和研究结论,提出进一步完善模型的设想。
After 1960’s, when global economy rapidly grows, the problems of lack of natural resource and degradation of ecological environment greatly challenge human beings. While reflecting influence and damage on economic development resulted from a series of problems of global ecological environment, human realize that new strategy of social development should be based on sustainable usage of natural resource, be more concerned about quality of economic growth, harmonize economic development with environmental protection, and achieve sustainable economic development. This dissertation discusses how to build environmental and resource CGE(ERCGE) model with CGE theory and achievement and methods of accounting environment and natural resource value. Further, it simulates, analyzes and quantitatively evaluates potential impacts and effects on Hainan macroeconomy and productive sectors by presuming certain environment policies, which provides scientific reference for environment and natural resource decision-making, and benefits sustainable economic development in Hainan.
This dissertation consists of eight chapters, and mainly includes construction of ERCGE model, establishment of Hainan provincial environmental and resource SAM(ERSAM) and simulation analysis of environment and resource policies.
ChapterⅠPreface. This chapter briefly presents research background, problems, purpose, methods, approaches, innovation and structure of the whole paper.
ChapterⅡSummary of CGE theory. This chapter introduces CGE theory development, basic principles of CGE model, parameters evaluation, implementation of CGE model by software, and application CGE model to the area of environmental and resource economy, which provides theoretic reference for constructing ERCGE model.
ChapterⅢConstruction of ERCGE model. It discusses how to integrate environment and natural resource into CGE model, and form basic structure and equations of ERCGE model.
ChapterⅣNumerical specification and Calibration of ERCGE model. It establishes ERSAM on the basis of Hainan provincial data, and estimates parameters by ERSAM.
ChapterⅤMethods of accounting environment and natural resource value. This chapter introduces and determines the approaches of accounting natural resource value and environmental control cost. In accordance with the methods, it calculates Hainan natural resource price and environmental cost.
ChapterⅥEconomic development and environmental and natural resource status in Hainan. It concisely describes economic development, and the environment and resource state in Hainan. ChapterⅦSimulation analysis of environment policies. This chapter analyzes impacts on provincial economy caused by changes of natural resource price and environmental cost according to the presumed simulation scenes. The results of simulation show that consideration of virtual environment cost and resource tax has little impacts on macroeconomy and natural resource input, which reveals that such policies will not lead great economic fluctuation. Because of resource tax, natural resource input will reduce and benefit resource saving and improving efficiency of resource input.
ChapterⅧSummary and discussion. It summarizes the content and conclusion of this dissertation, and further proposes assumption of improving the models.
引文
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