股票市场发展、金融结构与经济增长
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摘要
文章严格按照规范经济学研究的研究方法,遵从问题提出、文献梳理与综述分析、变量相互作用的理论机制分析、建立适用的计量模型对相关样本实证分析、推出相应的研究结论,并进行分析总结这一思路对股票市场发展、金融结构与经济增长之间的关系,得出较为翔实的研究结论：
理论研究认为,股票市场的发展可以促进经济增长,部分的实证文献也佐证了这一点。但股票市场的发展究竟如何促进经济增长,但作用渠道有哪些,相互作用机制如何等,现有文献中并没有形成一个完整的理论体系框架。研究沿着Pango的理论分析框架,把股票市场发展对经济增长的作用机制分成宏观、产业与微观三个渠道,建立起一个股票市场发展影响经济增长的完整理论框架体系。对于股票市场发展促进经济增长的宏观作用机制来说,股票市场可以通过市场规模与价格波动影响企业投资支出、居民消费、国外投资资金流入与货币政策的作用效果等等,进而直接或者间接影响经济增长。股票市场规模的扩大与金融创新的加深,使得可转换的金融资产品种增加,提高了金融体系中金融资产间的可转化程度,降低了市场交易成本。随着股票市场规模的扩大,金融市场资产价格对利率变化的弹性增大,使得货币政策利率渠道的传导效果减弱。股票市场的发展影响了对经济体系中实际投资支出的敏感程度、金融投资偏好的敏感程度、经济体系的交易效率以及商业银行贷款所占比例的大小,使得信用传递渠道变得更为复杂与不确定性。股票市场对货币政策传导机制的影响,使得利率与货币供应量为货币政策调控中间指标的效果作用大为降低。作为企业融资平台,股票市场可以通过资金存量与增量倾向于具有未来盈利能力与创新能力的行业转移来淘汰过剩产业,满足新兴产业的资本需求,实现经济体系中的产业结构升级,促进经济的可持续性增长。股票市场促进产业结构的存量优化调整的最终结果,一方面使得衰退产业资源禀赋有序地转移到高增长新兴产业部门,摆脱夕阳产业产能过剩的困境,达到产业结构快速升级换代的目的；另一方面,产业结构的存量优化调整可以在资本存量不变的情况下,提高新兴具有高增长潜力产业部门的扩张速度,从而加快产业结构合理化的进程。就微观渠道来说,股票市场作为企业制度创新的试验场对促进企业经营效率,提高资金利用效率,改善公司治理结构以及提供公平产权交易平台都起到至关重要的作用。
在研究股票市场发展促进经济增长的正向作用的同时,文章又着重分析了股票市场发展、金融结构与经济增长之间的动态关系。研究认为,作为市场除银行信贷间接融资的之外的补充手段,股票市场发展可以起到“备用轮胎功能”弥补银行信贷市场性不足问题,提高市场流动性,降低融资成本与提高市场效率,对银行信贷与其他金融市场融资手段起到互补的作用,从而加深金融体系结构的健全性、横向服务产品的广度以及纵向市场效率与功能的深度。但是股票市场具有资产价值的内在可投资属性,使得股票市场在经济作用中不完全同于银行信贷。股票市场不但可以通过筹集资本从而对经济体系中的增量资本产生影响,还可以通过存量资本的价格波动影响实体经济。基于股票市场通过存量资本价格波动影响经济的作用机制,研究提出了最优金融规模的理论分析模型。利用数理模型推导与分析认为,实体经济的增长利润要通过“租金”与“费用”等手段在金融系统与生产领域进行分配,金融市场规模发展可以降低市场的融资成本,但是随着规模的扩大,其参与利润分配的总量也越来越大。故此,金融规模存在一个与实体经济相对应的阈值效应,利润作为调节社会资本总量在充当金融体系与实体经济之间流动的杠杆,市场本身的作用并不能完全使得资本在金融资本与经营资本之间达成最优,这时候就需要行政的力量或者较大的外生冲击来完成两者之间的平衡。此外,研究还指出,即使一国经济体中金融规模合适,但是在总资本存量既定的情况下,若金融领域的利润率远远高于实体经济的生产率,那么,金融发展会“虹吸”生产领域的资金流向金融体系,降低实体经济中资本存量的积累速度,从而对生产领域中的资本积累产生“挤出”效应,进而影响经济的健康与可持续性发展。
基于理论分析的结论,文章利用可获得的样本数据进行实证分析,企图找出相应的经验论据来支持研究的理论观点。在实证研究过程中,研究尽可能的加入了代表资本积累、技术进步、金融深化程度、国家开放度以及政府财政支出等重要研究指标。利用51个国家1990-2008年的样本数据进行实证分析,得出如下实证结论：
在不考虑外生冲击的作用下,成熟资本市场资本积累水平明显高于发展中国家,股票市场在金融体系的融资作用相对不是那么显著,考虑到资本积累程度的因素与金融结构中的作用,股票市场作为金融创新的实验场所之一,其流动性与交易总量带有的投机色彩,使得其对降低交易成本的功能大为减弱。其对经济增长的促进作用变得方向不定而且也不显著。从金融结构层面来说,OECD国家银行信贷总额在整个样本期期间呈现出与经济增长的显著负相关关系。银行对私人信贷规模对经济增长促进作用显著。银行私人信贷额的发放往往属于市场行为,受到政府行政约束的色彩不是那么明显,对资本配置的优化作用体现出其与经济增长之间的顺周期性是符合理论分析的结论。发展中国家的实证结论中,资本积累、贸易衡量的开放度以及出口贸易中高科技代表的科技进步对经济增长明显的正向驱动效应,政府支出与银行信贷也出现于经济增长的负相关。不同的地方主要体现在以下两点：首先,发展中国家实证过程中并没有出现金融深化与经济增长负相关的现象,这主要是发展中国家整体尚处于资本积累的黄金时期,金融深化在对资本积累的促进作用而提高了经济增长速度。就股票市场对经济增长的促进作用上,发展中国家股票市场也整体优于发达国家股票市场。
为了进一步深入探究金融发展与经济增长的关系,研究在我国省市面板检验系统的设置中加入外生冲击指标、股票市场发展的门槛效应检测项、银行体系对经济外生冲击检验项和股票市场对经济外生冲击检验项。在对我国30个省市自治区1991年-2008年期间的股票市场、金融结构与经济增长的样本数据利用GMM动态面板数据处理方法进行实证分析后,研究认为：各省资本积累、人力资本投入、贸易开放度、FDI与政府当期财政支出对经济增长明显的正向促进效应。就具体的检验系统来看,银行信贷在滞后一期对经济增长有逆向的抑制作用,其检验项符号表明银行信贷有对经济外生冲击起到平滑作用的缓冲效果；股票市场筹资对经济增长有显著的促进作用,股票市场发展对外生冲击具有助涨助跌的放大效果。而股票市场筹资额对经济增长的促进作用存在一定的“倒U型效应”。综合股票市场、金融结构与经济增长来说,在银行与股票市场的综合作用下,银行信贷对经济增长的负向作用变得不再明显,而股票市场对经济的增长作用仍较为显著,银行发展与股票市场发展使得外生冲击对经济的影响作用变得不再显著。
此外,研究认为,作为我国实体经济发展的主要来源的股票市场筹资、银行信贷与FDI,三种资本之间存在或多或少的绝对异质性与相对同质性。不同性质的资本对经济增长的促进作用还需取决于其余其他资本之间的作用,在资本需求一定的条件下,不同性质的资本不仅存在相互的“补充效应”,还应该存在一定的“挤出效应”,这种挤出效应受资本同质性与资本存量总量影响,同质性越强,挤出效应越明显,资本存量越丰富,挤出效应越显著。随后的实证证实了文章理论分析的正确性。实证发现,银行信贷对股票市场筹资存在显著的“溢出效应”,而FDI对股票市场筹资存在显著的“挤出效应”,这种“挤出”或者“溢出”效应是变量之间的内生性的,并不受其他控制变量的影响而改变符号。
最后,对全文的研究结论进行了归纳总结,并在深入剖析中国现阶段股票市场与金融结构发展问题的基础上,利用文章实证的结论从金融深化促进经济增长存在“倒U型效应”问题做出了深刻的思考,并就如何在保持经济稳定增长的情况下发展我国资本市场问题提出了几点建议,重点强调了在通过金融深化途径促进经济增长的过程中一定要注重资本形成的质量而不是单纯的金融深化总量,并加强政府监管。
Strict according withs tandard economics research methods, the paper builds the interaction mechanism between variablesa nd establishment of appropriate measurement model for empirical analysis of the relevant samples. Using the thoughts above, with attention on the relationship between the stock market developments, financial structure and economic growth, we get quiet rich conclusion.
Theoretical studies suggest that the development of the stock market can promote economic growth, part of the empirical literature supporting this. However, the existing literature does not form a complete theoretical system framework about how development of the stock market to promote economic growth, whatt he role of the channels is, and how the interact mechanism is and so on. Along the theoretical analysis framework designed by Pango, we divide the mechanism that the promotion from the development of stock market to economic growth into macro、industry and micro three channels, to establish a complete system of theoretical framework in which stockm arket development affects economic growth. For the macro-mechanism of stock market development to economic growth, the stock market can directly or indirectly affect the economy Growth by market size and price fluctuations, business investment spending, consumption, foreign investment inflows and the role of monetary policy effects, etc. The size expansion and financial innovation deepening of the stockm arket, improves the convertible in the variety of financial assets and improve the financial system, reduces transaction costs in the market. With the expansion of the size of the stock market, the financial market asset prices elastic of interest rate get bigger, which reduces the interest rate transmission channels effects of monetary policy. The stock market developments affecting thes ensitivity of the actual investment expenditure, financial investment preferences and transaction efficiency as well as the proportion of commercial bank loans in the economic system, which makes the transmission channels of credit more complex and non-certainty. The effects that stock market influence on the monetary policy transmission mechanism reduce the effect of interest rates and money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy. As corporate finance platform, the stock market can phase out the excess industry through transferring the stock funds to the industry which has incremental profitability and innovation, meeting the capital needs of emerging industries, upgrading the industrial structure, promoting the sustainability of economic growth.
The result of the stock market promoting optimal adjustment ofi ndustrial structure, on the one hand makes the natural resources in declining and orderly industry transfer to high-growth emerging sectors, to achieve the purpose of industrial structure upgrading rapidly. On the other hand, optimization adjustments of industrial structure of the stock can raise the expansion speed of the emerging industrial sectors with high growth potential rate with capital stock remains unchanged, thus speeding up the process of rationalizing the industrial structure. Ont he micro-channels, as the testing ground for innovation and enterprise system to promote business efficiency, the stock market could increase the using efficiency of capital, improve corporate governance structure and provide a fair trading platform of property rights trading. In examining the positive effect stock market development to economic growth, the article has focused on analysis of the dynamic relationship between the stock market development, financial structure and economic growth。Studies suggest that, As the supplementary means of bank credit, stock market development can act as a "spare tire function" to make up the shortage of bank credit-market, improve market liquidity, lower financing costs and improve market efficiency, enhance the soundness of the financial system architecture, as well as vertical market efficiency and function of depth. But the inherent value of the stock market assets may be invested property, making the roleo f the stock market in the economy is not entirely the same as bank credit. The stock market not only has an impact on the economy's incremental capital by raising capital but also through the price volatility of capital stock of the real economy.
Based on the mechanism that stock market affects the economy through the price volatility of capital, we propose the optimal scale of financial analysis model. Using of mathematical models analysis, we find that the growth of profits of the real economy should be divided through "Rent" and "Fees" and other means in production field and in financial system. The development of market scale can reduce the cost of financing, but with the expansion of the scale, their participation in the total amounto f profit allocation is also growing. Therefore, there is an optimal finance system scale corresponding with the real economy. The profit can adjust the social capital between the financial system and the reale conomy as the flow between as the leverage. Market can not make the capital reach the optimal size between the financial capital and the working capital on its own. And then it needs the power of the executive or the large exogenous shocks to complete the balance between the two.
In addition, the study also pointed out that even a country has the right size of the of financial economy, if the financial sector's profit margins is much higher than the productivity of the real economy, the finance system would "Siphon" the from production field capital, reducing the rate of capital accumulation in the real economy with a "Crowding Out" effect, thereby affecting the economic health and sustainable development.Based on theoretical analysis, the article attempts to find the corresponding empirical analysis to support the theoretical research point by drawing on available of the sample data. In the empirical research process, adding indexes as much as possible, just as the representatives of capital accumulation, technological progress, financial deepening, and the state the degree of openness, governmente xpenditure and other important research targets. Drawing the following empirical conclusions:
Without taking the exogenous shocks into account, under the condition of the capital accumulation in mature capital markets is significantly higher than the developing countries, the financing role ofs tock market in the finance system is relatively not very significant. Taking into account the level of capital accumulation factors and the role of the financial structure, as a testing ground for financial innovation, the liquidity and trading volume of the stock market has speculation color, making it the function of reducing transaction costs greatly diminished, and the direction in promoting economic growth has become uncertainty and not significant. From the finance architecture, the total bank credit has showna significant negative correlationw ithe conomic growthdu ring the entire sample in OECD countries. The scale of bank credit to private sector shows a significant effect in promoting economic growth. Bank credit to privates ector belongs to market behavior, being not so obvious subject to government administrative constraints, the role of the optimization of the allocation of capital and economic growth reflects its pro-cyclical consistentw ith the theoretical analysis.
Empirical findings in developing countries show that:capital accumulation and openness measured by trade as well as technological progress driven significant positive effect to economic growth. Government spending and bank credit have appeared in the negative correlation ofe conomic growth. Difference ism ainly reflected in the following two points:first, in the process of developing countries, there is no negative correlation phenomenon between financiald eepening and economic growth, mainly fori n developing countries there is still in the golden era ofc apital accumulation and financial deepening with the role in promoting capital accumulation and increasing economic growth. In order to furtherp robe into the relationship between finance development and economic growth, the research sets panel inspection system by adding exogenous shock indicators, stock market, the threshold effect of test item of stock development, the banking system of exogenous shocks on the economy and the stock market test items exogenous shocks on the economy test items in China's provinces and cities.
Using the GMM dynamic panel data approach to empirical analysis with the data about the stock market, financial structure and economic growth of China's 30 provinces and autonomous regions during the period of 1991-2008, it shows:The capital accumulation, human capital investment, trade openness, FDI andg overnment current expenditures promote a clear positive effect on economic growth. Perspective on specific exam system, Bank credit could reverse economic growth with one lag, its test items show signs that bank credit has played a role in smoothing buffer effect on the economy with exogenous shocks; The capital financing from the stock market has a significant effect on promoting to economic growth with an "Inverted U-effect." Integrated in the banking and the stock market, the negative effect of bank credit on economic growth becomes not obvious, but the promotion of stock market to economic growth is still more remarkable; banking development and stockm arket development makes the impact of exogenous shocks on the economy role no longer apparent. In addition, as China's main capital source ofr eal economic growth, the stock market financing, bank credit and FDI have more or less homogeneity or heterogeneity. Different types of capital role in promoting economic growth depend on the relationship between the others.Under the capital certain requirements conditions, there are not only the "Complementary Effect" but also a certain degree of "Crowding Out" between different types ofc apital. This kind ofc rowding-out effect is affected by theh omogeneity of capital and the total amount of capital stock. Strongert he homogeneity is, the more obvious the crowding-out effect is; more abundant the capital stock is, the crowding out is more remarkable.
The subsequent empirical analysis confirms the correctness of the theory of the article. Empirical study discovers, there was a significant "Spillover Effect" of bank credit to finance stock market, while there was a significant "crowding out effect" of the FDI to the stock market, this "crowding out" or "spillover" effect between variablesi s endogenous, and is not subject to the impact of other control variables.Finally, it is the conclusion of the paper. With in-depth analysis of China's current stock market development and finance development, based on the empirical analysis of that finance deepening for economic growth exists "Inverted U-effect", we give some suggestion on how to develop the capital market in our country, with Stable economic growth. The article highlights that we must pay attention to the quality of capital formation, rather simply than the total scale of financial deepening, through the means of financial deepening process of promoting economic growth, with strengthening government supervision.
理论研究认为,股票市场的发展可以促进经济增长,部分的实证文献也佐证了这一点。但股票市场的发展究竟如何促进经济增长,但作用渠道有哪些,相互作用机制如何等,现有文献中并没有形成一个完整的理论体系框架。研究沿着Pango的理论分析框架,把股票市场发展对经济增长的作用机制分成宏观、产业与微观三个渠道,建立起一个股票市场发展影响经济增长的完整理论框架体系。对于股票市场发展促进经济增长的宏观作用机制来说,股票市场可以通过市场规模与价格波动影响企业投资支出、居民消费、国外投资资金流入与货币政策的作用效果等等,进而直接或者间接影响经济增长。股票市场规模的扩大与金融创新的加深,使得可转换的金融资产品种增加,提高了金融体系中金融资产间的可转化程度,降低了市场交易成本。随着股票市场规模的扩大,金融市场资产价格对利率变化的弹性增大,使得货币政策利率渠道的传导效果减弱。股票市场的发展影响了对经济体系中实际投资支出的敏感程度、金融投资偏好的敏感程度、经济体系的交易效率以及商业银行贷款所占比例的大小,使得信用传递渠道变得更为复杂与不确定性。股票市场对货币政策传导机制的影响,使得利率与货币供应量为货币政策调控中间指标的效果作用大为降低。作为企业融资平台,股票市场可以通过资金存量与增量倾向于具有未来盈利能力与创新能力的行业转移来淘汰过剩产业,满足新兴产业的资本需求,实现经济体系中的产业结构升级,促进经济的可持续性增长。股票市场促进产业结构的存量优化调整的最终结果,一方面使得衰退产业资源禀赋有序地转移到高增长新兴产业部门,摆脱夕阳产业产能过剩的困境,达到产业结构快速升级换代的目的；另一方面,产业结构的存量优化调整可以在资本存量不变的情况下,提高新兴具有高增长潜力产业部门的扩张速度,从而加快产业结构合理化的进程。就微观渠道来说,股票市场作为企业制度创新的试验场对促进企业经营效率,提高资金利用效率,改善公司治理结构以及提供公平产权交易平台都起到至关重要的作用。
在研究股票市场发展促进经济增长的正向作用的同时,文章又着重分析了股票市场发展、金融结构与经济增长之间的动态关系。研究认为,作为市场除银行信贷间接融资的之外的补充手段,股票市场发展可以起到“备用轮胎功能”弥补银行信贷市场性不足问题,提高市场流动性,降低融资成本与提高市场效率,对银行信贷与其他金融市场融资手段起到互补的作用,从而加深金融体系结构的健全性、横向服务产品的广度以及纵向市场效率与功能的深度。但是股票市场具有资产价值的内在可投资属性,使得股票市场在经济作用中不完全同于银行信贷。股票市场不但可以通过筹集资本从而对经济体系中的增量资本产生影响,还可以通过存量资本的价格波动影响实体经济。基于股票市场通过存量资本价格波动影响经济的作用机制,研究提出了最优金融规模的理论分析模型。利用数理模型推导与分析认为,实体经济的增长利润要通过“租金”与“费用”等手段在金融系统与生产领域进行分配,金融市场规模发展可以降低市场的融资成本,但是随着规模的扩大,其参与利润分配的总量也越来越大。故此,金融规模存在一个与实体经济相对应的阈值效应,利润作为调节社会资本总量在充当金融体系与实体经济之间流动的杠杆,市场本身的作用并不能完全使得资本在金融资本与经营资本之间达成最优,这时候就需要行政的力量或者较大的外生冲击来完成两者之间的平衡。此外,研究还指出,即使一国经济体中金融规模合适,但是在总资本存量既定的情况下,若金融领域的利润率远远高于实体经济的生产率,那么,金融发展会“虹吸”生产领域的资金流向金融体系,降低实体经济中资本存量的积累速度,从而对生产领域中的资本积累产生“挤出”效应,进而影响经济的健康与可持续性发展。
基于理论分析的结论,文章利用可获得的样本数据进行实证分析,企图找出相应的经验论据来支持研究的理论观点。在实证研究过程中,研究尽可能的加入了代表资本积累、技术进步、金融深化程度、国家开放度以及政府财政支出等重要研究指标。利用51个国家1990-2008年的样本数据进行实证分析,得出如下实证结论：
在不考虑外生冲击的作用下,成熟资本市场资本积累水平明显高于发展中国家,股票市场在金融体系的融资作用相对不是那么显著,考虑到资本积累程度的因素与金融结构中的作用,股票市场作为金融创新的实验场所之一,其流动性与交易总量带有的投机色彩,使得其对降低交易成本的功能大为减弱。其对经济增长的促进作用变得方向不定而且也不显著。从金融结构层面来说,OECD国家银行信贷总额在整个样本期期间呈现出与经济增长的显著负相关关系。银行对私人信贷规模对经济增长促进作用显著。银行私人信贷额的发放往往属于市场行为,受到政府行政约束的色彩不是那么明显,对资本配置的优化作用体现出其与经济增长之间的顺周期性是符合理论分析的结论。发展中国家的实证结论中,资本积累、贸易衡量的开放度以及出口贸易中高科技代表的科技进步对经济增长明显的正向驱动效应,政府支出与银行信贷也出现于经济增长的负相关。不同的地方主要体现在以下两点：首先,发展中国家实证过程中并没有出现金融深化与经济增长负相关的现象,这主要是发展中国家整体尚处于资本积累的黄金时期,金融深化在对资本积累的促进作用而提高了经济增长速度。就股票市场对经济增长的促进作用上,发展中国家股票市场也整体优于发达国家股票市场。
为了进一步深入探究金融发展与经济增长的关系,研究在我国省市面板检验系统的设置中加入外生冲击指标、股票市场发展的门槛效应检测项、银行体系对经济外生冲击检验项和股票市场对经济外生冲击检验项。在对我国30个省市自治区1991年-2008年期间的股票市场、金融结构与经济增长的样本数据利用GMM动态面板数据处理方法进行实证分析后,研究认为：各省资本积累、人力资本投入、贸易开放度、FDI与政府当期财政支出对经济增长明显的正向促进效应。就具体的检验系统来看,银行信贷在滞后一期对经济增长有逆向的抑制作用,其检验项符号表明银行信贷有对经济外生冲击起到平滑作用的缓冲效果；股票市场筹资对经济增长有显著的促进作用,股票市场发展对外生冲击具有助涨助跌的放大效果。而股票市场筹资额对经济增长的促进作用存在一定的“倒U型效应”。综合股票市场、金融结构与经济增长来说,在银行与股票市场的综合作用下,银行信贷对经济增长的负向作用变得不再明显,而股票市场对经济的增长作用仍较为显著,银行发展与股票市场发展使得外生冲击对经济的影响作用变得不再显著。
此外,研究认为,作为我国实体经济发展的主要来源的股票市场筹资、银行信贷与FDI,三种资本之间存在或多或少的绝对异质性与相对同质性。不同性质的资本对经济增长的促进作用还需取决于其余其他资本之间的作用,在资本需求一定的条件下,不同性质的资本不仅存在相互的“补充效应”,还应该存在一定的“挤出效应”,这种挤出效应受资本同质性与资本存量总量影响,同质性越强,挤出效应越明显,资本存量越丰富,挤出效应越显著。随后的实证证实了文章理论分析的正确性。实证发现,银行信贷对股票市场筹资存在显著的“溢出效应”,而FDI对股票市场筹资存在显著的“挤出效应”,这种“挤出”或者“溢出”效应是变量之间的内生性的,并不受其他控制变量的影响而改变符号。
最后,对全文的研究结论进行了归纳总结,并在深入剖析中国现阶段股票市场与金融结构发展问题的基础上,利用文章实证的结论从金融深化促进经济增长存在“倒U型效应”问题做出了深刻的思考,并就如何在保持经济稳定增长的情况下发展我国资本市场问题提出了几点建议,重点强调了在通过金融深化途径促进经济增长的过程中一定要注重资本形成的质量而不是单纯的金融深化总量,并加强政府监管。
Strict according withs tandard economics research methods, the paper builds the interaction mechanism between variablesa nd establishment of appropriate measurement model for empirical analysis of the relevant samples. Using the thoughts above, with attention on the relationship between the stock market developments, financial structure and economic growth, we get quiet rich conclusion.
Theoretical studies suggest that the development of the stock market can promote economic growth, part of the empirical literature supporting this. However, the existing literature does not form a complete theoretical system framework about how development of the stock market to promote economic growth, whatt he role of the channels is, and how the interact mechanism is and so on. Along the theoretical analysis framework designed by Pango, we divide the mechanism that the promotion from the development of stock market to economic growth into macro、industry and micro three channels, to establish a complete system of theoretical framework in which stockm arket development affects economic growth. For the macro-mechanism of stock market development to economic growth, the stock market can directly or indirectly affect the economy Growth by market size and price fluctuations, business investment spending, consumption, foreign investment inflows and the role of monetary policy effects, etc. The size expansion and financial innovation deepening of the stockm arket, improves the convertible in the variety of financial assets and improve the financial system, reduces transaction costs in the market. With the expansion of the size of the stock market, the financial market asset prices elastic of interest rate get bigger, which reduces the interest rate transmission channels effects of monetary policy. The stock market developments affecting thes ensitivity of the actual investment expenditure, financial investment preferences and transaction efficiency as well as the proportion of commercial bank loans in the economic system, which makes the transmission channels of credit more complex and non-certainty. The effects that stock market influence on the monetary policy transmission mechanism reduce the effect of interest rates and money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy. As corporate finance platform, the stock market can phase out the excess industry through transferring the stock funds to the industry which has incremental profitability and innovation, meeting the capital needs of emerging industries, upgrading the industrial structure, promoting the sustainability of economic growth.
The result of the stock market promoting optimal adjustment ofi ndustrial structure, on the one hand makes the natural resources in declining and orderly industry transfer to high-growth emerging sectors, to achieve the purpose of industrial structure upgrading rapidly. On the other hand, optimization adjustments of industrial structure of the stock can raise the expansion speed of the emerging industrial sectors with high growth potential rate with capital stock remains unchanged, thus speeding up the process of rationalizing the industrial structure. Ont he micro-channels, as the testing ground for innovation and enterprise system to promote business efficiency, the stock market could increase the using efficiency of capital, improve corporate governance structure and provide a fair trading platform of property rights trading. In examining the positive effect stock market development to economic growth, the article has focused on analysis of the dynamic relationship between the stock market development, financial structure and economic growth。Studies suggest that, As the supplementary means of bank credit, stock market development can act as a "spare tire function" to make up the shortage of bank credit-market, improve market liquidity, lower financing costs and improve market efficiency, enhance the soundness of the financial system architecture, as well as vertical market efficiency and function of depth. But the inherent value of the stock market assets may be invested property, making the roleo f the stock market in the economy is not entirely the same as bank credit. The stock market not only has an impact on the economy's incremental capital by raising capital but also through the price volatility of capital stock of the real economy.
Based on the mechanism that stock market affects the economy through the price volatility of capital, we propose the optimal scale of financial analysis model. Using of mathematical models analysis, we find that the growth of profits of the real economy should be divided through "Rent" and "Fees" and other means in production field and in financial system. The development of market scale can reduce the cost of financing, but with the expansion of the scale, their participation in the total amounto f profit allocation is also growing. Therefore, there is an optimal finance system scale corresponding with the real economy. The profit can adjust the social capital between the financial system and the reale conomy as the flow between as the leverage. Market can not make the capital reach the optimal size between the financial capital and the working capital on its own. And then it needs the power of the executive or the large exogenous shocks to complete the balance between the two.
In addition, the study also pointed out that even a country has the right size of the of financial economy, if the financial sector's profit margins is much higher than the productivity of the real economy, the finance system would "Siphon" the from production field capital, reducing the rate of capital accumulation in the real economy with a "Crowding Out" effect, thereby affecting the economic health and sustainable development.Based on theoretical analysis, the article attempts to find the corresponding empirical analysis to support the theoretical research point by drawing on available of the sample data. In the empirical research process, adding indexes as much as possible, just as the representatives of capital accumulation, technological progress, financial deepening, and the state the degree of openness, governmente xpenditure and other important research targets. Drawing the following empirical conclusions:
Without taking the exogenous shocks into account, under the condition of the capital accumulation in mature capital markets is significantly higher than the developing countries, the financing role ofs tock market in the finance system is relatively not very significant. Taking into account the level of capital accumulation factors and the role of the financial structure, as a testing ground for financial innovation, the liquidity and trading volume of the stock market has speculation color, making it the function of reducing transaction costs greatly diminished, and the direction in promoting economic growth has become uncertainty and not significant. From the finance architecture, the total bank credit has showna significant negative correlationw ithe conomic growthdu ring the entire sample in OECD countries. The scale of bank credit to private sector shows a significant effect in promoting economic growth. Bank credit to privates ector belongs to market behavior, being not so obvious subject to government administrative constraints, the role of the optimization of the allocation of capital and economic growth reflects its pro-cyclical consistentw ith the theoretical analysis.
Empirical findings in developing countries show that:capital accumulation and openness measured by trade as well as technological progress driven significant positive effect to economic growth. Government spending and bank credit have appeared in the negative correlation ofe conomic growth. Difference ism ainly reflected in the following two points:first, in the process of developing countries, there is no negative correlation phenomenon between financiald eepening and economic growth, mainly fori n developing countries there is still in the golden era ofc apital accumulation and financial deepening with the role in promoting capital accumulation and increasing economic growth. In order to furtherp robe into the relationship between finance development and economic growth, the research sets panel inspection system by adding exogenous shock indicators, stock market, the threshold effect of test item of stock development, the banking system of exogenous shocks on the economy and the stock market test items exogenous shocks on the economy test items in China's provinces and cities.
Using the GMM dynamic panel data approach to empirical analysis with the data about the stock market, financial structure and economic growth of China's 30 provinces and autonomous regions during the period of 1991-2008, it shows:The capital accumulation, human capital investment, trade openness, FDI andg overnment current expenditures promote a clear positive effect on economic growth. Perspective on specific exam system, Bank credit could reverse economic growth with one lag, its test items show signs that bank credit has played a role in smoothing buffer effect on the economy with exogenous shocks; The capital financing from the stock market has a significant effect on promoting to economic growth with an "Inverted U-effect." Integrated in the banking and the stock market, the negative effect of bank credit on economic growth becomes not obvious, but the promotion of stock market to economic growth is still more remarkable; banking development and stockm arket development makes the impact of exogenous shocks on the economy role no longer apparent. In addition, as China's main capital source ofr eal economic growth, the stock market financing, bank credit and FDI have more or less homogeneity or heterogeneity. Different types of capital role in promoting economic growth depend on the relationship between the others.Under the capital certain requirements conditions, there are not only the "Complementary Effect" but also a certain degree of "Crowding Out" between different types ofc apital. This kind ofc rowding-out effect is affected by theh omogeneity of capital and the total amount of capital stock. Strongert he homogeneity is, the more obvious the crowding-out effect is; more abundant the capital stock is, the crowding out is more remarkable.
The subsequent empirical analysis confirms the correctness of the theory of the article. Empirical study discovers, there was a significant "Spillover Effect" of bank credit to finance stock market, while there was a significant "crowding out effect" of the FDI to the stock market, this "crowding out" or "spillover" effect between variablesi s endogenous, and is not subject to the impact of other control variables.Finally, it is the conclusion of the paper. With in-depth analysis of China's current stock market development and finance development, based on the empirical analysis of that finance deepening for economic growth exists "Inverted U-effect", we give some suggestion on how to develop the capital market in our country, with Stable economic growth. The article highlights that we must pay attention to the quality of capital formation, rather simply than the total scale of financial deepening, through the means of financial deepening process of promoting economic growth, with strengthening government supervision.
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