农村基础设施投资对农业全要素生产率的影响研究
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摘要
改革开放以来，中国的农业发展取得了世人瞩目的成就，中国农业的增长源泉是学术界关注的热点。目前，比较一致的看法是中国农业要实现从传统农业向现代农业的转型，实现从粗放式经营向集约式经营方式的转变，中国农业经济的发展要依靠要素投入效率的提高、生产要素组合方式的优化、技术进步、组织和制度创新，这意味着中国农业的增长要依赖全要素生产率的增长。许多学者从不同角度研究了中国农业全要素生产率的影响因素，但现有研究忽视了农村基础设施投资对农业全要素生产率的作用。特别是近年来中央不断加强对农村的基础设施投资力度，研究如何通过农村基础设施投资促进我国农业经济增长方式的转型，为我国制定科学的农村基础设施投资政策提供决策依据，从农村基础设施投资的角度来研究农业全要素生产率的增长问题具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。
本文研究的主要问题有：1、考察我国农村基础设施投资对农业全要素生产率影响的长期效应和短期效应。2、比较公路、灌溉、电力三类农村基础设施投资对农业全要素生产率的影响及作用路径的差异。3、比较农村基础设施投资的全要素生产率效应在不同区域的差异。4、分析农村基础投资制度变迁对农村基础设施投资的全要素生产率效应的影响。
论文主共分为四个部分，主要内容如下：
第一部分包括第一章和第二章。第一章介绍论文的研究背景、研究目标、研究框架和技术路线，对重要概念和研究范围作出了界定。第二章回顾了经济增长理论和公共投资理论，围绕农村基础设施投资和农业全要素生产率两个主题对现有文献进行梳理，总结了主流的研究结论，指出现有研究的不足。
第二部分是论文的第三章，这一部分是后文实证研究的铺垫，从全局的角度介绍中国农村基础设施投资和农业全要素生产率的总体变化趋势。在这一部分首先总结了中国农村基础设施投资规模的变动特点，从投资结构的角度对农村公路、灌溉和农村电力三类基础设施投资的投资强度进行了比较，还系统介绍了这三类基础设施投资的总体成效。此外，利用DEA_Malmquist方法对1985-2011年间我国农业全要素生产率进行了测算，对我国农业全要素生产率的变化趋势进行了总结。
第三部分是论文的第四章至第六章。在这一部分，首先建立了一个分析农村基础设投资对农业全要素生产率的影响的理论模型，然后基于全国层面时间序列数据构建农业全要素生产率和农村基础设施投资的长期均衡模型和短期波动模型，分析农村基础设施投资对农业全要素生产率的长期效应和短期效应。再以省级层面的面板数据为样本，考察农村基础设施投资对农业全要素生产率的影响，并分析不同类型的基础设施投资对农业全要素生产率的影响以及传导机制。在第5章按照农业生产特点、农业经济发达程度、乡镇住户密度三个划分标准对我国的30个省区进行了区域划分，然后在不同的划分标准下研究了农村基础设施投资效应的区域差异。第6章重点研究了农村基础设施投资体制对农村基础设施投资的生产率增长效应的影响。本章通过回顾建国以来农村基础设施投资体制变迁，对比了在农村基础设施投资体制改革的探索期、改革期和新农村建设时期三个阶段中，农村基础设施投资对农业全要素生产率影响效应的差异。
第四部分是结论与展望，本章在前文各章研究的基础上，对主要研究结论进行总结，提出政策建议，指出值得进一步研究的问题。
Since1978, China’s agriculure gained great progress, How does China’s agricultureChina Agricultural maintain steady growth? Currently, more consistent view is that thedevelopment mode of China's agriculture must undergo the transformation from traditionalagriculture to modern agriculture, and the transformation from extensive to intensive growthpattern. To improve the efficiency of factor inputs, optimize combinations of factors ofproduction, technological progress, organizational and institutional innovation to achievedevelopment of the agricultural economy. Chinese agricultural growth relies on total factorproductivity growth. Many scholars have studied from different angles to analyze China'sagriculture productivity factors, but ignored the role of rural infrastructure investment on TFP.From the perspective of investment in rural infrastructure to study agricultural TFP growthproblems, to develop a scientific investment in rural infrastructure policy,and to. promoteChina's economic growth mode transformation of agriculture is very important in theoreticaland practical significance.
This paper studies the following main problems:1. Study the impact of ruralinfrastructure investment on agricultural total factor productivity from the long-term andshort-term.2. Compare the impact and the conduction routes of rural road investment,irrigation investment and electricity investment on agricultural total factor productivity.3.Compare the difference of productivity growth effect of rural infrastructure investmentamong different zones.4. Analyze the effect of the change of rural infrastructure investmentinstitution on the productivity growth effect of rural infrastructure investment.5. Based on theconclusions of theoretical and empirical analysis on China's investment in rural infrastructurepolicy recommendations.
Thesis is divided into four main parts, the main contents are as follows:
The first part includes Chapters1and2. The first chapter introduces the researchbackground, research objectives, research framework, technology roadmap,and importantconcepts and scope of the study. The second chapter reviews the theory of economic growthand public investment, focusing on investment in rural infrastructure and agricultural TFPtwo themes to sort out the existing literature, sum up the main academic point of view, and point out the lack of existing research.
The second part is the third chapter, this part is foreshadowing later empirical research.This part introduces Chinese investment in rural infrastructure and agricultural TFP overalltrends with a global perspective. This part first summarizes the scale of Chinese investment inrural infrastructure, compare the investment intensity of of rural roads, irrigation, and ruralelectricity, and also introduced the overall effectiveness of the investment of three types ofinfrastructure In addition, this part applies DEA_Malmquist method to estimate China’sagricultural TFP from1985-2011, and summarizes the trends of China's agricultural TFP.
The third part contains the chapter4, chapter5and chapter6. This part first constructs atheoretic model to describe the impact of rural infrastructure investment on agricultural TFP.Based on the national time series data,this part constructs long-term equilibrium model andshort-tem fluctuation model to analyze the long-term and short-term effect of ruralinfrastructure investment on agricultural TFP. This part also makes use of provincial leveldata to detect the relationship between rural infrastructure investment on agricultural TFP. InChapter5,30provinces are divided into different groups according to agricultural productionconditions, agricultural economics development, and township household density. And then,this paper compares regional differences of rural infrastructure investment effects. In Chapter6, this paper reviews the change of rural infrastructure investment instituions, and comparesthe stage differences of rural infrastructure investment effects among exploration period, thereform period and new rural construction period.
The fourth part is Chapter7. This part makes conclusions based on the study of eachchapter, forwards policy recommendations and the issue deserves further study.
本文研究的主要问题有：1、考察我国农村基础设施投资对农业全要素生产率影响的长期效应和短期效应。2、比较公路、灌溉、电力三类农村基础设施投资对农业全要素生产率的影响及作用路径的差异。3、比较农村基础设施投资的全要素生产率效应在不同区域的差异。4、分析农村基础投资制度变迁对农村基础设施投资的全要素生产率效应的影响。
论文主共分为四个部分，主要内容如下：
第一部分包括第一章和第二章。第一章介绍论文的研究背景、研究目标、研究框架和技术路线，对重要概念和研究范围作出了界定。第二章回顾了经济增长理论和公共投资理论，围绕农村基础设施投资和农业全要素生产率两个主题对现有文献进行梳理，总结了主流的研究结论，指出现有研究的不足。
第二部分是论文的第三章，这一部分是后文实证研究的铺垫，从全局的角度介绍中国农村基础设施投资和农业全要素生产率的总体变化趋势。在这一部分首先总结了中国农村基础设施投资规模的变动特点，从投资结构的角度对农村公路、灌溉和农村电力三类基础设施投资的投资强度进行了比较，还系统介绍了这三类基础设施投资的总体成效。此外，利用DEA_Malmquist方法对1985-2011年间我国农业全要素生产率进行了测算，对我国农业全要素生产率的变化趋势进行了总结。
第三部分是论文的第四章至第六章。在这一部分，首先建立了一个分析农村基础设投资对农业全要素生产率的影响的理论模型，然后基于全国层面时间序列数据构建农业全要素生产率和农村基础设施投资的长期均衡模型和短期波动模型，分析农村基础设施投资对农业全要素生产率的长期效应和短期效应。再以省级层面的面板数据为样本，考察农村基础设施投资对农业全要素生产率的影响，并分析不同类型的基础设施投资对农业全要素生产率的影响以及传导机制。在第5章按照农业生产特点、农业经济发达程度、乡镇住户密度三个划分标准对我国的30个省区进行了区域划分，然后在不同的划分标准下研究了农村基础设施投资效应的区域差异。第6章重点研究了农村基础设施投资体制对农村基础设施投资的生产率增长效应的影响。本章通过回顾建国以来农村基础设施投资体制变迁，对比了在农村基础设施投资体制改革的探索期、改革期和新农村建设时期三个阶段中，农村基础设施投资对农业全要素生产率影响效应的差异。
第四部分是结论与展望，本章在前文各章研究的基础上，对主要研究结论进行总结，提出政策建议，指出值得进一步研究的问题。
Since1978, China’s agriculure gained great progress, How does China’s agricultureChina Agricultural maintain steady growth? Currently, more consistent view is that thedevelopment mode of China's agriculture must undergo the transformation from traditionalagriculture to modern agriculture, and the transformation from extensive to intensive growthpattern. To improve the efficiency of factor inputs, optimize combinations of factors ofproduction, technological progress, organizational and institutional innovation to achievedevelopment of the agricultural economy. Chinese agricultural growth relies on total factorproductivity growth. Many scholars have studied from different angles to analyze China'sagriculture productivity factors, but ignored the role of rural infrastructure investment on TFP.From the perspective of investment in rural infrastructure to study agricultural TFP growthproblems, to develop a scientific investment in rural infrastructure policy,and to. promoteChina's economic growth mode transformation of agriculture is very important in theoreticaland practical significance.
This paper studies the following main problems:1. Study the impact of ruralinfrastructure investment on agricultural total factor productivity from the long-term andshort-term.2. Compare the impact and the conduction routes of rural road investment,irrigation investment and electricity investment on agricultural total factor productivity.3.Compare the difference of productivity growth effect of rural infrastructure investmentamong different zones.4. Analyze the effect of the change of rural infrastructure investmentinstitution on the productivity growth effect of rural infrastructure investment.5. Based on theconclusions of theoretical and empirical analysis on China's investment in rural infrastructurepolicy recommendations.
Thesis is divided into four main parts, the main contents are as follows:
The first part includes Chapters1and2. The first chapter introduces the researchbackground, research objectives, research framework, technology roadmap,and importantconcepts and scope of the study. The second chapter reviews the theory of economic growthand public investment, focusing on investment in rural infrastructure and agricultural TFPtwo themes to sort out the existing literature, sum up the main academic point of view, and point out the lack of existing research.
The second part is the third chapter, this part is foreshadowing later empirical research.This part introduces Chinese investment in rural infrastructure and agricultural TFP overalltrends with a global perspective. This part first summarizes the scale of Chinese investment inrural infrastructure, compare the investment intensity of of rural roads, irrigation, and ruralelectricity, and also introduced the overall effectiveness of the investment of three types ofinfrastructure In addition, this part applies DEA_Malmquist method to estimate China’sagricultural TFP from1985-2011, and summarizes the trends of China's agricultural TFP.
The third part contains the chapter4, chapter5and chapter6. This part first constructs atheoretic model to describe the impact of rural infrastructure investment on agricultural TFP.Based on the national time series data,this part constructs long-term equilibrium model andshort-tem fluctuation model to analyze the long-term and short-term effect of ruralinfrastructure investment on agricultural TFP. This part also makes use of provincial leveldata to detect the relationship between rural infrastructure investment on agricultural TFP. InChapter5,30provinces are divided into different groups according to agricultural productionconditions, agricultural economics development, and township household density. And then,this paper compares regional differences of rural infrastructure investment effects. In Chapter6, this paper reviews the change of rural infrastructure investment instituions, and comparesthe stage differences of rural infrastructure investment effects among exploration period, thereform period and new rural construction period.
The fourth part is Chapter7. This part makes conclusions based on the study of eachchapter, forwards policy recommendations and the issue deserves further study.
引文
1惊人的跨越——新中国60年经济发展述评：新华网http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2009-08/09/content_11852600_2.htm
2根据《2012中国统计年鉴》农业总产值指数计算而得。
3[英]亚当.斯密：国民财富的性质和原因的研究，商务印书馆，1974年版，第253页。
4赫希曼：《经济发展战略》中文版，经济科学出版社1991年版，第73-74页。
5亚当斯密：《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》，商务印书馆1996年版，下卷，第254页
6农业部令第39号：农业基本建设项目管理办法。
71979年4月5日-28日召开的中央工作会议http://dangshi.people.com.cn/GB/151935/176588/176597/10556250.html
8中国农业财政政策的回顾与展望：http://www.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/diaochayanjiu/200902/t20090211_113203.html
9国务院关于依靠科技进步振兴农业加强农业科技成果推广工作的决定（1989-11-27）：http://cpc.people.com.cn/GB/64184/64186/66701/4495368.html
10中共中央、国务院关于“九五”时期和今年农村工作的主要任务和政策措施（1996-1-21）：http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2005-03/15/content_2699136.htm
11第二次全国农业普查主要数据公报（2008年2月29日）
122012年中国农村统计年鉴p43，表3-9.
13《中国统计年鉴》，不包括专门用于乡、镇、村、组办工业、基本建设、非农业运输、科学试验和教学等非农业生产方面用的动力机械与作业机械。
14“在一般情况下，有效灌溉面积应等于灌溉工程或设备已经配备，能够进行正常灌溉的水田和水浇地面积之和”引自《2010中国农村统计年鉴》，P420.
15“施用量要求按折纯量计算数量，即各类化学肥料的实际施用数量按其含氮、含五氧化二磷、含氧化钾的比例折成百分之百计算”，引自《2010中国农村统计年鉴》，P421.
16《农村公路建设管理办法》（交通部令2006年第3号）
171998年以后重庆的数据合并入四川省。
18胡洪曙，《农村公共产品供给体制的历史演变及对比研究，中南财经政法大学学报2007年第2期
19中共中央印发《关于进一步加强和完善农业生产责任制的几个问题》的通知http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2005-02/04/content_2547020.htm201982年中央一号文件：全国农村工作会议纪要：http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2008-10/08/content_10162735_5.htm
21“三提”，是指农户上缴给村级行政单位的三种提留费用包括公积金、公益金和行管费；“五统”是农民上缴给乡镇一级政府的五项统筹费，包括教育费附加、计划生育费、民兵训练费、乡村道路建设费和优抚费。
22国务院第92号令：农民承担费用和劳务管理条例1991.12.7
23转引李彬《乡镇公共物品制度外供给分析》，中国社会科学出版社，2004版，第37页。
24中共中央、国务院关于实行政社分开建立乡政府的通知：http://www.people.com.cn/item/flfgk/gwyfg/1983/112103198303.html
25中共中央关于一九八四年农村工作的通知（1984年1月1日）：http://cpc.people.com.cn/GB/64162/135439/8134254.html
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5亚当斯密：《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》，商务印书馆1996年版，下卷，第254页
6农业部令第39号：农业基本建设项目管理办法。
71979年4月5日-28日召开的中央工作会议http://dangshi.people.com.cn/GB/151935/176588/176597/10556250.html
8中国农业财政政策的回顾与展望：http://www.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/diaochayanjiu/200902/t20090211_113203.html
9国务院关于依靠科技进步振兴农业加强农业科技成果推广工作的决定（1989-11-27）：http://cpc.people.com.cn/GB/64184/64186/66701/4495368.html
10中共中央、国务院关于“九五”时期和今年农村工作的主要任务和政策措施（1996-1-21）：http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2005-03/15/content_2699136.htm
11第二次全国农业普查主要数据公报（2008年2月29日）
122012年中国农村统计年鉴p43，表3-9.
13《中国统计年鉴》，不包括专门用于乡、镇、村、组办工业、基本建设、非农业运输、科学试验和教学等非农业生产方面用的动力机械与作业机械。
14“在一般情况下，有效灌溉面积应等于灌溉工程或设备已经配备，能够进行正常灌溉的水田和水浇地面积之和”引自《2010中国农村统计年鉴》，P420.
15“施用量要求按折纯量计算数量，即各类化学肥料的实际施用数量按其含氮、含五氧化二磷、含氧化钾的比例折成百分之百计算”，引自《2010中国农村统计年鉴》，P421.
16《农村公路建设管理办法》（交通部令2006年第3号）
171998年以后重庆的数据合并入四川省。
18胡洪曙，《农村公共产品供给体制的历史演变及对比研究，中南财经政法大学学报2007年第2期
19中共中央印发《关于进一步加强和完善农业生产责任制的几个问题》的通知http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2005-02/04/content_2547020.htm201982年中央一号文件：全国农村工作会议纪要：http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2008-10/08/content_10162735_5.htm
21“三提”，是指农户上缴给村级行政单位的三种提留费用包括公积金、公益金和行管费；“五统”是农民上缴给乡镇一级政府的五项统筹费，包括教育费附加、计划生育费、民兵训练费、乡村道路建设费和优抚费。
22国务院第92号令：农民承担费用和劳务管理条例1991.12.7
23转引李彬《乡镇公共物品制度外供给分析》，中国社会科学出版社，2004版，第37页。
24中共中央、国务院关于实行政社分开建立乡政府的通知：http://www.people.com.cn/item/flfgk/gwyfg/1983/112103198303.html
25中共中央关于一九八四年农村工作的通知（1984年1月1日）：http://cpc.people.com.cn/GB/64162/135439/8134254.html
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