丹江口库区农田生态系统服务价值核算及影响因素的情景模拟研究
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摘要
丹江口水库是南水北调中线工程的水源地,库区水质与水量的持续保证将对京、津及华北地区的社会、经济可持续发展提供有利的保障。本文选取了丹江口库区周边的六个县市的农田为研究范围,根据生态系统服务评价理论,采用生态经济学方法,借助RS、GIS技术和实地调研等辅助手段,综合评价2008年丹江口库区农田生态系统服务正负价值,并具体研究了农田生态系统服务负价值产生的因素,提出了农业面源污染控制建议,在此基础上,采用情景分析法预测2015年丹江口水库蓄水后农田生态系统服务的价值变化。
2008年丹江口库区农田生态系统服务价值评价：(1)研究区农田生态系统服务产生的正价值为472.2千万元,负价值为175.5千万元,二者合计为296.6千万元,总价值为正。农田生态系统服务提供正价值与负价值比为2.7：1,说明不当的管理和栽培措施导致环境污染的损失已经相当可观,人类从农田生态系统中获得的利益正受到严重威胁。(2)研究区农田生态系统提供正价值中,食品和原材料服务价值的贡献率为81.9%,固定CO2和吸收SO2为6.6%(主要是固定CO2价值),养分循环服务价值贡献率为5.2%,土壤保持服务价值为3.3%,水分保持和消纳废弃物服务的价值很低,说明2008年丹江口库区农田生态系统提供产品经济价值很高,生态价值偏低。(3)研究区农田生态系统服务提供的负价值中,畜禽排泄物、化肥使用量对负价值影响率分别达到44.6%和26.8%,水土流失的经济损失占17.6%,温室气体排放对环境的损失率占8.1%,农药和地膜的影响相对低些,因此,当地生态环境污染中的主要因素是畜禽排泄物、化肥使用量和水土流失。
2015年农田生态系统服务价值预测结果：(1)在三种假设的农业生产情景模式下：现有的农业生产管理方式对环境破坏作用最大；以生态农业构建的农业生产模式,既能保证当地农业经济发展又可在一定程度上降低环境污染的风险；以有机农业构建的农业生产模式提供的农田生态系统服务总价值最大,主要贡献来自负面价值的大幅度降低,对环境保护的效果最理想,但当地的经济利益暂时会受到一定的损失。因此,从水源地保护需求出发,研究区适合采用有机农业的生产模式。(2)以有机农业构建的生产模式对当地农业经济和生态环境保护的贡献和损失：如果不考虑耕地面积变化情况,农田生态系统产品服务的经济价值减少了176.4千万元,生态价值比2008年增加了28.3千万元,水体保护价值增加了149.4千万元；如果考虑耕地面积变化且被淹没耕地的农户会迁移至其它安置点,这种农业生产方式给当地农田生产暂时带来经济价值损失是38.4千万元,生态价值增加了35.8千万元,水体保护价值增加了132.3千万元。(3)比较各行政区农田生态系统服务价值的动态变化,结果可见,耕地面积大小并非服务价值贡献高低的决定因素,淅川县在农业种植结构、生产管理模式有待进一步优化和提高,农业面源污染控制任务更加紧迫。
农户意识与行为及其影响农业面源污染的因素：(1)研究区域农业面源污染主要来自种植业污染、养殖业污染、生活废弃物污染,其中主要的污染源为化肥、农药、畜禽粪便、生活废弃物。当前农业生产中存在着农户化肥和农药施用水平高,地膜残留比例高,农户对化肥和农药保产有着较强的依赖,规模化养殖场的粪污处理配套设施不足,多数采用直接排放方式,并且还存在生产、生活垃圾就地堆放,废水随意排放等问题。影响农业面源污染的因素主要与地区发展背景、农户生产管理水平和生产资料市场管理等方面有关。(2)通过对农户个人特征和家庭特征中影响农户对农业面源污染认知度的因素的逻辑回归分析,结果显示,农户个人特征中的受教育年限和政治面貌与农户认知程度影响呈正相关,即提高农户的受教育水平,发展农村党员,有利于提高农户对面源污染的认知度。比较有一定认知度的农户与认知度较低的农户的生产行为发现,他们的生产行为没有明显差别,说明农户的意识与行为是不一致的；农户对生产资料的大量使用是否会给农业生产带来负面影响的关注度高于对环境污染的关注度。(3)农业面源污染控制应采用源头控制,综合治理方式。在水源地保护区域,制定限定性农业生产技术标准,以生态农业和有机农业替代粗放农业生产方式；减少农田以及农村地区的氮、磷径流和淋溶,将是一条可行的污染控制途径。
Danjiangkou Reservoir area is the water source of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Keeping water quality and quantity is strong safeguard for sustainable development of social economy of Beijing, Tianjin and north China area. According to the ecosystem service appraisal theory, the paper takes six counties' farmland that locate in Danjiangkou Reservoir surrounding as the objects of the study, uses methods of ecological economics, remote sensing, geographical information system and spot investigation, comprehensive evaluates positive and negative value of farmland ecosystem service in Danjiangkou Reservoir surrounding in 2008, and studies influence factors that lead to negative value of farmland ecosystem service. And the paper predicts the change of farmland ecosystem service value of Danjiangkou Reservoir surrounding in 2015 by scenario analysis on the basis of control suggestions of agriculture non-point pollution.
Evaluation results on farmland ecosystem service value in 2008:(1) The positive and negative value of farmland ecosystem service in the study area are 4.722 billion RMB and 1.755 billion RMB respectively. The total value is 2.96 billion RMB that is positive value. The ratio of positive and negative value is 2.7:1. It indicates that losses of environment pollution are considerable figure by incorrect management and cultivation practices. People's benefit from farmland ecosystem is seriously threatened. (2) For the positive value of farmland ecosystem service in research region, contribution ratios of service value of product and raw material, carbon fixation and absorbing SO2, nutrient cycling and soil conservation are 81.9%,6.6%,5.2% and 3.3% respectively. The service value of decomposition dung and maintaining soil moisture is much low. It indicates that product economical value of farmland ecosystem is higher, but ecological value is lower. (3) For the negative value of farmland ecosystem service in research region, influence ratios of economic losing of livestock and poultry, fertilizer, soil erosion and greenhouse gases are 44.6%,26.8%,17.6% and 8.1% respectively. The economic losing of plastic film and pesticide are much low. It indicates that the main pollution factors for local environment are excretion quantity of livestock and poultry, application rate of fertilizer and soil erosion.
Evaluation results on farmland ecosystem service value in 2015:(1) The results of comparison three agriculture production modes show that current agricultural production mode has a great destructive effect for environment protection, eco-agriculture production mode is able to keep economic development of local agriculture and reduce the risk of environment pollution to a certain extent. And the total value of farmland ecosystem service by organic agriculture management is biggest because negative value has been maximum reduced. Organic agriculture production mode is most beneficial to environment protection but there is limit economic losses for local agricultural benefit for several years. The paper considers that it is suitable for protecting water source with organic agricultural production mode. (2) Estimation on contribution value and economic loss for local agricultural development and environment protection with organic agriculture production mode:If the change of farmland area is not considered, economic value is decreased by 1.764 billion RMB in short-term, but ecological and water protection value of farmland ecosystem service are increased by 283 million RMB and 1.494 billion RMB respectively from 2015 to 2008. If decreasing farmland area is considered and farmers whose farmland has been inundated have been settled to other place, the loss of economic is 384 million RMB by organic agriculture production mode, and ecological and water protection value are increased by 358 million RMB and 1.323 billion RMB respectively. (3)The results of comparison value trends of every county show that farmland area is not a decisive factor for contribution ratio of service value. Xichuan county need to optimize agriculture planting structure and improve management mode. And its task is urgent in control of agriculture non-point pollution.
Farmers'cognition and behavior and influence factors of agriculture non-point pollution in Danjiangkou Reservoir surrounding:(1) Agriculture non-point pollution in research region is mainly come from planting industry, breeding industry and rural life waste.The main pollution source is synthetic fertilizer, pesticide, excretion of livestock and poultry and rural life waste. Under the current agriculture production, problems appear that application rate of synthetic fertilizer and pesticide is higher, the ratio of residue film is higher, farmers rely on synthetic fertilizer and pesticide to have a security yield, most scale livestock and poultry directly discharge excretion because of lacking of matching treatment establishment, producing and living waste stack, and wastewater discharge. Influencing factors of agriculture non-point pollution are mainly related with local social development background, farmers' production management level and market management in production means. (2)Based on logistic regression analysis on influencing factors of individual characteristics and family characteristics to farmers' cognition degree on non-point pollution, results show that education level and political status of farmers are significantly positive correlation with cognition degree. Increasing education level and recruiting rural party members are beneficial to improve farmers' cognition degree on non-point pollution. There is disagreement comparing planting behavior at present between farmers with certain cognition and lower cognition. It indicated that farmers' consciousness and behavior are disjointed. Farmers' attention-degree for negative influence of large using of production means on agriculture production is higher that it on environment pollution capital. (3) The mode with source control and comprehensive management is effective for agriculture non-point pollution. Decreasing runoff and leaching of Nitrogen and Phosphorus from farmland and rural area must be a feasible way for pollution control by making limit agricultural production technology standard and organic production mode instead of extensive production mode during the water source protection area.
2008年丹江口库区农田生态系统服务价值评价：(1)研究区农田生态系统服务产生的正价值为472.2千万元,负价值为175.5千万元,二者合计为296.6千万元,总价值为正。农田生态系统服务提供正价值与负价值比为2.7：1,说明不当的管理和栽培措施导致环境污染的损失已经相当可观,人类从农田生态系统中获得的利益正受到严重威胁。(2)研究区农田生态系统提供正价值中,食品和原材料服务价值的贡献率为81.9%,固定CO2和吸收SO2为6.6%(主要是固定CO2价值),养分循环服务价值贡献率为5.2%,土壤保持服务价值为3.3%,水分保持和消纳废弃物服务的价值很低,说明2008年丹江口库区农田生态系统提供产品经济价值很高,生态价值偏低。(3)研究区农田生态系统服务提供的负价值中,畜禽排泄物、化肥使用量对负价值影响率分别达到44.6%和26.8%,水土流失的经济损失占17.6%,温室气体排放对环境的损失率占8.1%,农药和地膜的影响相对低些,因此,当地生态环境污染中的主要因素是畜禽排泄物、化肥使用量和水土流失。
2015年农田生态系统服务价值预测结果：(1)在三种假设的农业生产情景模式下：现有的农业生产管理方式对环境破坏作用最大；以生态农业构建的农业生产模式,既能保证当地农业经济发展又可在一定程度上降低环境污染的风险；以有机农业构建的农业生产模式提供的农田生态系统服务总价值最大,主要贡献来自负面价值的大幅度降低,对环境保护的效果最理想,但当地的经济利益暂时会受到一定的损失。因此,从水源地保护需求出发,研究区适合采用有机农业的生产模式。(2)以有机农业构建的生产模式对当地农业经济和生态环境保护的贡献和损失：如果不考虑耕地面积变化情况,农田生态系统产品服务的经济价值减少了176.4千万元,生态价值比2008年增加了28.3千万元,水体保护价值增加了149.4千万元；如果考虑耕地面积变化且被淹没耕地的农户会迁移至其它安置点,这种农业生产方式给当地农田生产暂时带来经济价值损失是38.4千万元,生态价值增加了35.8千万元,水体保护价值增加了132.3千万元。(3)比较各行政区农田生态系统服务价值的动态变化,结果可见,耕地面积大小并非服务价值贡献高低的决定因素,淅川县在农业种植结构、生产管理模式有待进一步优化和提高,农业面源污染控制任务更加紧迫。
农户意识与行为及其影响农业面源污染的因素：(1)研究区域农业面源污染主要来自种植业污染、养殖业污染、生活废弃物污染,其中主要的污染源为化肥、农药、畜禽粪便、生活废弃物。当前农业生产中存在着农户化肥和农药施用水平高,地膜残留比例高,农户对化肥和农药保产有着较强的依赖,规模化养殖场的粪污处理配套设施不足,多数采用直接排放方式,并且还存在生产、生活垃圾就地堆放,废水随意排放等问题。影响农业面源污染的因素主要与地区发展背景、农户生产管理水平和生产资料市场管理等方面有关。(2)通过对农户个人特征和家庭特征中影响农户对农业面源污染认知度的因素的逻辑回归分析,结果显示,农户个人特征中的受教育年限和政治面貌与农户认知程度影响呈正相关,即提高农户的受教育水平,发展农村党员,有利于提高农户对面源污染的认知度。比较有一定认知度的农户与认知度较低的农户的生产行为发现,他们的生产行为没有明显差别,说明农户的意识与行为是不一致的；农户对生产资料的大量使用是否会给农业生产带来负面影响的关注度高于对环境污染的关注度。(3)农业面源污染控制应采用源头控制,综合治理方式。在水源地保护区域,制定限定性农业生产技术标准,以生态农业和有机农业替代粗放农业生产方式；减少农田以及农村地区的氮、磷径流和淋溶,将是一条可行的污染控制途径。
Danjiangkou Reservoir area is the water source of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Keeping water quality and quantity is strong safeguard for sustainable development of social economy of Beijing, Tianjin and north China area. According to the ecosystem service appraisal theory, the paper takes six counties' farmland that locate in Danjiangkou Reservoir surrounding as the objects of the study, uses methods of ecological economics, remote sensing, geographical information system and spot investigation, comprehensive evaluates positive and negative value of farmland ecosystem service in Danjiangkou Reservoir surrounding in 2008, and studies influence factors that lead to negative value of farmland ecosystem service. And the paper predicts the change of farmland ecosystem service value of Danjiangkou Reservoir surrounding in 2015 by scenario analysis on the basis of control suggestions of agriculture non-point pollution.
Evaluation results on farmland ecosystem service value in 2008:(1) The positive and negative value of farmland ecosystem service in the study area are 4.722 billion RMB and 1.755 billion RMB respectively. The total value is 2.96 billion RMB that is positive value. The ratio of positive and negative value is 2.7:1. It indicates that losses of environment pollution are considerable figure by incorrect management and cultivation practices. People's benefit from farmland ecosystem is seriously threatened. (2) For the positive value of farmland ecosystem service in research region, contribution ratios of service value of product and raw material, carbon fixation and absorbing SO2, nutrient cycling and soil conservation are 81.9%,6.6%,5.2% and 3.3% respectively. The service value of decomposition dung and maintaining soil moisture is much low. It indicates that product economical value of farmland ecosystem is higher, but ecological value is lower. (3) For the negative value of farmland ecosystem service in research region, influence ratios of economic losing of livestock and poultry, fertilizer, soil erosion and greenhouse gases are 44.6%,26.8%,17.6% and 8.1% respectively. The economic losing of plastic film and pesticide are much low. It indicates that the main pollution factors for local environment are excretion quantity of livestock and poultry, application rate of fertilizer and soil erosion.
Evaluation results on farmland ecosystem service value in 2015:(1) The results of comparison three agriculture production modes show that current agricultural production mode has a great destructive effect for environment protection, eco-agriculture production mode is able to keep economic development of local agriculture and reduce the risk of environment pollution to a certain extent. And the total value of farmland ecosystem service by organic agriculture management is biggest because negative value has been maximum reduced. Organic agriculture production mode is most beneficial to environment protection but there is limit economic losses for local agricultural benefit for several years. The paper considers that it is suitable for protecting water source with organic agricultural production mode. (2) Estimation on contribution value and economic loss for local agricultural development and environment protection with organic agriculture production mode:If the change of farmland area is not considered, economic value is decreased by 1.764 billion RMB in short-term, but ecological and water protection value of farmland ecosystem service are increased by 283 million RMB and 1.494 billion RMB respectively from 2015 to 2008. If decreasing farmland area is considered and farmers whose farmland has been inundated have been settled to other place, the loss of economic is 384 million RMB by organic agriculture production mode, and ecological and water protection value are increased by 358 million RMB and 1.323 billion RMB respectively. (3)The results of comparison value trends of every county show that farmland area is not a decisive factor for contribution ratio of service value. Xichuan county need to optimize agriculture planting structure and improve management mode. And its task is urgent in control of agriculture non-point pollution.
Farmers'cognition and behavior and influence factors of agriculture non-point pollution in Danjiangkou Reservoir surrounding:(1) Agriculture non-point pollution in research region is mainly come from planting industry, breeding industry and rural life waste.The main pollution source is synthetic fertilizer, pesticide, excretion of livestock and poultry and rural life waste. Under the current agriculture production, problems appear that application rate of synthetic fertilizer and pesticide is higher, the ratio of residue film is higher, farmers rely on synthetic fertilizer and pesticide to have a security yield, most scale livestock and poultry directly discharge excretion because of lacking of matching treatment establishment, producing and living waste stack, and wastewater discharge. Influencing factors of agriculture non-point pollution are mainly related with local social development background, farmers' production management level and market management in production means. (2)Based on logistic regression analysis on influencing factors of individual characteristics and family characteristics to farmers' cognition degree on non-point pollution, results show that education level and political status of farmers are significantly positive correlation with cognition degree. Increasing education level and recruiting rural party members are beneficial to improve farmers' cognition degree on non-point pollution. There is disagreement comparing planting behavior at present between farmers with certain cognition and lower cognition. It indicated that farmers' consciousness and behavior are disjointed. Farmers' attention-degree for negative influence of large using of production means on agriculture production is higher that it on environment pollution capital. (3) The mode with source control and comprehensive management is effective for agriculture non-point pollution. Decreasing runoff and leaching of Nitrogen and Phosphorus from farmland and rural area must be a feasible way for pollution control by making limit agricultural production technology standard and organic production mode instead of extensive production mode during the water source protection area.
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