生态保护项目对大熊猫栖息地和当地社区的影响
|
摘要
生态系统为人类提供了赖以生存的物质条件,随着人类对自然的过度索取,生态系统退化已经成为全球性的问题,不仅对于人类自身,也对其他物种的生存造成了巨大威胁。近几十年来,生态系统发生巨大变化的同时,贫困问题也日益成为现代社会面对的巨大挑战。世界上最贫困人群所依赖的资源受到全球性环境问题的影响最大,这些人群最容易陷入到“生态系统退化—贫困陷阱”之中,在这一陷阱之中贫困与生态系统退化形成了恶性循环。与地球上的许多其它物种一样,大熊猫由于栖息地的丧失和退化而受到了严重威胁。虽然我国在大熊猫的主要栖息地建立了自然保护区网络以保护这一濒危物种,但是仍然有一半的大熊猫栖息地处于保护区之外,相对于保护区中的栖息地,这部分栖息地受到的人为干扰更多。在社会经济层面上,这些地区多为经济发展相对滞后的老少边穷地区,因此如何将保护和恢复大熊猫栖息地与帮助当地群众尽快摆脱贫困进行有机结合,达到保护与发展的双赢,成为当前十分紧迫的任务。
本文以平武县木皮藏族乡为研究对象,综合使用遥感、地理信息系统以及地面调查的方法,研究了生态保护工程实施前后当地大熊猫栖息地的变化以及当地居民收入的变化,并且对这些变化的驱动力进行了分析。随着国家级生态保护工程以及基于社区的保护与发展项目的实施,大熊猫的栖息地逐步得到了恢复,并且当地居民的收入有了较大幅度的提高,表明当地摆脱了“生态系统退化—贫困陷阱”。主要结果如下：
1)1986-1999年间,木皮乡的植被类型由针叶林、针阔混交林和阔叶林转化为灌木林,植物群落的演替在人类干扰下进入逆行演替。这一时期,大熊猫栖息地适宜度指数由0.82降至0.74。最适宜大熊猫栖息地的比例由56.15%减少至39.49%,减少了16.66%,景观多样性指数由1.16提高至1.29,栖息地的破碎化程度加深。
2)1999-2009年期间,随着天保工程、退耕还林工程以及ICDP项目的实施,木皮乡的植被类型的转化方向为草地／农田→灌木林→阔叶林→针阔混交林→针叶林,群落进入顺行自然演替。这一时期,低质量的大熊猫栖息地向高质量转化,栖息地适宜度指数由0.74升至0.80,栖息地景观多样性指数由1.29降至1.18,表明破碎化程度降低。
3)利用CA-MARKOV模型对木皮乡的植被进行预测后发现,如果植被变化继续1986-1999年间的演化趋势,到2009年,灌木林将成为主要的植被类型。在此基础上,大熊猫栖息地将进一步退化,栖息地适宜度指数仅为0.68。2009年预测的大熊猫栖息地中的最适宜部分仅是2009年实际值的54.51%。
4)对1999-2009年间木皮乡社会经济状况的调查表明,随着天保工程的实施,木材生产停止,林区内公路的减少,居民由高山向沟谷和区外转移,以及ICDP项目中的能源替代与生计替代是当地植被以及大熊猫栖息地恢复的主要驱动力。
5)1999-2009年期间,由于退耕还林的实施,农户的种植业收入降低,但退耕还林补助抵消了这一负面效应,加之务工、养殖业等非种植业收入的大幅度提高,农户的总收入在扣除通货膨胀因素后,由1999年的4768元增长至2009年的12521元,平均年增长幅度为16.26%。
6)由于薪柴消耗量的大幅度降低以及牲畜饲养方式的转变,参加ICDP的农户的人均生态足迹由2.7346hm2变为1.6325 hm2,降低了40.30%,同时农户的人居环境有了极大改善。
Ecosystem provides human being immediate needs, with the overexploitation of natural resources, ecosystem degradation has become a globle problem not only for human being, but also for other species existence. Along the significant change of ecosystem, poverty is also a great chanllenge for modern society in recent decades. The most impoversihed people are most likely to fall into ecosystem degradation-poverty trap, in which poverty leads to ecosystem degradation and ecosystem degradation deepens poverty. Like many other species, giant panda(Ailuropoda melanoleuca) has been endangered due to habitat loss and degradation. Although a network of nature reserves aiming at protect giant panda habitat has been built, about half habitat was out of the boundary of the nature reserves. Compared with the habitat in nature reserves, giant panda habitat outside nature reserves has undergone much more intense human disturbances over the past several decades Since local residents in giant panda habitat are often the most socially marginalized minority groups in the country their most food and energy are coming from the local forest ecosystems. Thus how to get win-win solution in giant panda habitat conservation and pverty alleviation outside nature reserves is a urgent issue.
With an integrated use of remote sensing, geographic information system and field investigation, this paper studied changes in vegetation and other factors on which giant panda habitat depends through the period of 1986-2009. The main results are:
1) During 1986-1999, the vegetation changed from coniferous forest, mix forest and decidous forest to shrub under huaman disturbance. The giant panda haibitat suitability index (HSI) declined from 0.82 to 0.74, and the most suiTab. habitat decreased 16.66%, from 56.15% to 39.49%. The haibtat landscape diversity index increased from 1.16 to 1.29, which means a more fragmented habitat 2) During 1999-2009, along with the implementaion of the Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP), the Grain to Grreen Program(GTGP), as well as the integrated conservation and development projects (ICDP), the disturbance to forest declined, and the vegetation succession direction is grass/crop land→shrub→decidous forest→mix forest→coniferous forest. The low quality giant panda habitat changed to high quality, the HSI increased from 0.74 to 0.80, and a lower landscape diversity index means a less fragmented habitat.
3) By the use of CA-MARKOV model,the primary vegetation type would be shrub in 2009 if the trend in 1986-1999 lasts. On this base, the giant panda habitat would degrated further, the HIS would be 0.68 and the most suiTab. habitat would be only 54.51% of the real situation.
4) In 1999-2009, along with the implementation of the NFPP, commercial logging in Mupi was ceased and a large part of the logging road was abandoned. The main forces that lead to the improvement of giant habitat are abandoned logging road in forest, the migration of people from high mountains to valley as well as the energy and livelihood alternatives for local people.
5) The subsidy from GTGP compensatedfarmers less income from crop land, and due to the increase from off-farm and livestock raising and beekeeping, farmers income increased from 4768 Yuan in 1999 to 12521 Yuan, the average annual increase ratio is 16.26%.
6) The household ecological footprint declined 40.30%, from 2.7346 hm2 to 1.6325 hm2 per capita due to the less fuelwood consumption and transition of livestock raising pattern. The project recipients'household living conditions were also greatly improved.
7) Built a coupled vegetation rehabilitation and economic development model and provided policy suggestions in the low-carbon rehabilitation of the earthquake region. Such suggestions includes: promoting the use of renewable energy, develop organic agriculture and agri-forestry, etc.
本文以平武县木皮藏族乡为研究对象,综合使用遥感、地理信息系统以及地面调查的方法,研究了生态保护工程实施前后当地大熊猫栖息地的变化以及当地居民收入的变化,并且对这些变化的驱动力进行了分析。随着国家级生态保护工程以及基于社区的保护与发展项目的实施,大熊猫的栖息地逐步得到了恢复,并且当地居民的收入有了较大幅度的提高,表明当地摆脱了“生态系统退化—贫困陷阱”。主要结果如下：
1)1986-1999年间,木皮乡的植被类型由针叶林、针阔混交林和阔叶林转化为灌木林,植物群落的演替在人类干扰下进入逆行演替。这一时期,大熊猫栖息地适宜度指数由0.82降至0.74。最适宜大熊猫栖息地的比例由56.15%减少至39.49%,减少了16.66%,景观多样性指数由1.16提高至1.29,栖息地的破碎化程度加深。
2)1999-2009年期间,随着天保工程、退耕还林工程以及ICDP项目的实施,木皮乡的植被类型的转化方向为草地／农田→灌木林→阔叶林→针阔混交林→针叶林,群落进入顺行自然演替。这一时期,低质量的大熊猫栖息地向高质量转化,栖息地适宜度指数由0.74升至0.80,栖息地景观多样性指数由1.29降至1.18,表明破碎化程度降低。
3)利用CA-MARKOV模型对木皮乡的植被进行预测后发现,如果植被变化继续1986-1999年间的演化趋势,到2009年,灌木林将成为主要的植被类型。在此基础上,大熊猫栖息地将进一步退化,栖息地适宜度指数仅为0.68。2009年预测的大熊猫栖息地中的最适宜部分仅是2009年实际值的54.51%。
4)对1999-2009年间木皮乡社会经济状况的调查表明,随着天保工程的实施,木材生产停止,林区内公路的减少,居民由高山向沟谷和区外转移,以及ICDP项目中的能源替代与生计替代是当地植被以及大熊猫栖息地恢复的主要驱动力。
5)1999-2009年期间,由于退耕还林的实施,农户的种植业收入降低,但退耕还林补助抵消了这一负面效应,加之务工、养殖业等非种植业收入的大幅度提高,农户的总收入在扣除通货膨胀因素后,由1999年的4768元增长至2009年的12521元,平均年增长幅度为16.26%。
6)由于薪柴消耗量的大幅度降低以及牲畜饲养方式的转变,参加ICDP的农户的人均生态足迹由2.7346hm2变为1.6325 hm2,降低了40.30%,同时农户的人居环境有了极大改善。
Ecosystem provides human being immediate needs, with the overexploitation of natural resources, ecosystem degradation has become a globle problem not only for human being, but also for other species existence. Along the significant change of ecosystem, poverty is also a great chanllenge for modern society in recent decades. The most impoversihed people are most likely to fall into ecosystem degradation-poverty trap, in which poverty leads to ecosystem degradation and ecosystem degradation deepens poverty. Like many other species, giant panda(Ailuropoda melanoleuca) has been endangered due to habitat loss and degradation. Although a network of nature reserves aiming at protect giant panda habitat has been built, about half habitat was out of the boundary of the nature reserves. Compared with the habitat in nature reserves, giant panda habitat outside nature reserves has undergone much more intense human disturbances over the past several decades Since local residents in giant panda habitat are often the most socially marginalized minority groups in the country their most food and energy are coming from the local forest ecosystems. Thus how to get win-win solution in giant panda habitat conservation and pverty alleviation outside nature reserves is a urgent issue.
With an integrated use of remote sensing, geographic information system and field investigation, this paper studied changes in vegetation and other factors on which giant panda habitat depends through the period of 1986-2009. The main results are:
1) During 1986-1999, the vegetation changed from coniferous forest, mix forest and decidous forest to shrub under huaman disturbance. The giant panda haibitat suitability index (HSI) declined from 0.82 to 0.74, and the most suiTab. habitat decreased 16.66%, from 56.15% to 39.49%. The haibtat landscape diversity index increased from 1.16 to 1.29, which means a more fragmented habitat 2) During 1999-2009, along with the implementaion of the Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP), the Grain to Grreen Program(GTGP), as well as the integrated conservation and development projects (ICDP), the disturbance to forest declined, and the vegetation succession direction is grass/crop land→shrub→decidous forest→mix forest→coniferous forest. The low quality giant panda habitat changed to high quality, the HSI increased from 0.74 to 0.80, and a lower landscape diversity index means a less fragmented habitat.
3) By the use of CA-MARKOV model,the primary vegetation type would be shrub in 2009 if the trend in 1986-1999 lasts. On this base, the giant panda habitat would degrated further, the HIS would be 0.68 and the most suiTab. habitat would be only 54.51% of the real situation.
4) In 1999-2009, along with the implementation of the NFPP, commercial logging in Mupi was ceased and a large part of the logging road was abandoned. The main forces that lead to the improvement of giant habitat are abandoned logging road in forest, the migration of people from high mountains to valley as well as the energy and livelihood alternatives for local people.
5) The subsidy from GTGP compensatedfarmers less income from crop land, and due to the increase from off-farm and livestock raising and beekeeping, farmers income increased from 4768 Yuan in 1999 to 12521 Yuan, the average annual increase ratio is 16.26%.
6) The household ecological footprint declined 40.30%, from 2.7346 hm2 to 1.6325 hm2 per capita due to the less fuelwood consumption and transition of livestock raising pattern. The project recipients'household living conditions were also greatly improved.
7) Built a coupled vegetation rehabilitation and economic development model and provided policy suggestions in the low-carbon rehabilitation of the earthquake region. Such suggestions includes: promoting the use of renewable energy, develop organic agriculture and agri-forestry, etc.
引文
1. Adams W M, Aveling R, Brockington D, Dickson B, Elliott J, Hutton J, Roe D, Vira Band Wolmer W. Biodiversity Conservation and the Eradication of Poverty. Science,2004.306(5699):1146-1149.
2. Adger W, Hughes T, Folke C, Carpenter Sand Rockstrom J. Social-Ecological Resilience to Coastal Disasters. Science,2005.309(5737):1036.
3. Agrawal Aand Redford K. Poverty, Development, and Biodiversity Conservation: Shooting in the Dark? Vol.26.2006:Wildlife Conservation Society.
4. Andersson Jand Lindroth M. Ecologically Unsustainable Trade. Ecological Economics, 2001.37(1):113-122.
5. Aspinall R. Modelling Land Use Change with Generalized Linear Models-a Multi-Model Analysis of Change between 1860 and 2000 in Gallatin Valley, Montana. Journal of Environmental Management,2004.72(1-2):91-103.
6. B. Kelsey J, Carolyn Kand Katharine R E S. Designing Payments for Ecosystem Services:Lessons from Previous Experience with Incentive-Based Mechanisms. PNAS,2008.105(28):9465-9470.
7. Bakker M, Govers G, Kosmas C, Vanacker V, Oost Kand Rounsevell M. Soil Erosion as a Driver of Land-Use Change. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment,2005. 105(3):467-481.
8. Bawa K, Seidler Rand Raven P. Reconciling Conservation Paradigms. Conservation Biology,2004.18(4):859-860.
9. Bearer S, Linderman M, Huang J Y, An L, He G Mand Liu J G. Effects of Fuelwood Collection and Timber Harvesting on Giant Panda Habitat Use. Biological Conservation,2008.141(2):385-393.
10. Berkes F. Community-Based Conservation in a Globalized World. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2007.104(39):15188-15193.
11. Berkes F. Rethinking Community-Based Conservation. Conservation Biology,2004. vol.18(no.3).
12. Bhutta Kand Huq F. Supplier Selection Problem:A Comparison of the Total Cost of Ownership and Analytic Hierarchy Process Approaches. Supply Chain Management:An International Journal,2002.7(3):126-135.
13. Boedhihartono A K, Gunarso P, Levang Pand Sayer J. The Principles of Conservation and Development:Do They Apply in Malinau? Ecology And Society, 2007.12(2).
14. Bradshaw A. The Use of Natural Processes in Reclamation-Advantages and Difficulties. Landscape and Urban Planning,2000.51(2-4):89-100.
15. Brockington D, Igoe Jand Schmidt-Soltau K. Conservation, Human Rights, and Poverty Reduction. Conservation Biology,2006.20(1):250-252.
16. Brooks R P. Improving Habitat Suitability Index Models. Wildlife society bulletin, 1997.
17. Brooks T M, Mittermeier R A,Mittermeier C G, Fonseca G A B d, Rylands A B, Konstant W R, Flick P, Pilgrim J, Oldfield S, Magin Gand Hilton-Taylor C. Habitat Loss and Extinction in the Hotspots of Biodiversity. Conservation Biology,2002. 16(4):909-923.
18. Cao S X, Zhong B L, Yue H, Zeng H Sand Zeng J H. Development and Testing of a Sustainable Environmental Restoration Policy on Eradicating the Poverty Trap in China's Changting County. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A,2009.106(26):10712-10716.
19. CHEN X D, LUPI F, HE G M, OUYANG Z Yand LIU J G. Factors Affecting Land Reconversion Plans Following a Payment for Ecosystem Service Program.2009. 142(8):1740-1747.
20. Christensen Mand Heilmann-Clausen J. Forest Biodiversity Gradients and the Human Impact in Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal. Biodiversity and Conservation,2009.18(8):2205-2221.
21. Clough P. Encouraging Private Biodiversity-Incentives for Biodiversity Conservation on Private Land. Treasury Working Paper Series,2000.
22. Dettki H, L fstrand Rand Edenius L. Modeling Habitat Suitability for Moose in Coastal Northern Sweden:Empirical Vs Process-Oriented Approaches. AMBIO:A Journal of the Human Environment,2003.32(8):549-556.
23. Donald Land Karen B, eds. Giant Pandas:Biology and Conservation.2004, University of California Press.
24. Dussault C, Courtois Rand Ouellet J. A Habitat Suitability Index Model to Assess Moose Habitat Selection at Multiple Spatial Scales. Canadian Journal of Forest Research,2006.36(5):1097-1107.
25. Engel S, Wunscher Tand Wunder S. Increasing the Efficiency of Forest Conservation:The Case of Payments for Environmental Services in Costa Rica. Avoided deforestation:Prospects for mitigating climate change. Oxford, Routledge, 2009:314-328.
26. Fahrig L. Relative Effects of Habitat Loss and Fragmentation on Population Extinction. The Journal of Wildlife Management,1997.61(3):603-610.
27. Ferraro Pand Kiss A. Ecology:Direct Payments to Conserve Biodiversity. Science, 2002.298(5599):1718.
28. Foley J, DeFries R, Asner G, Barford C, Bonan G, Carpenter S, Chapin F, Coe M, Daily Gand Gibbs H. Global Consequences of Land Use. Science,2005.309(5734): 570.
29.Gerbens-Leenes P, Nonhebel Sand Ivens W. A Method to Determine Land Requirements Relating to Food Consumption Patterns. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment,2002.90(1):47-58.
30. Gerbens-Leenes Pand Nonhebel S. Consumption Patterns and Their Effects on Land Required for Food. Ecological Economics,2002.42(1-2):185-199.
31. Hackel J. Community Conservation and the Future of Africa's Wildlife. Conservation Biology,2001.13(4):726-734.
32. Hazlewood P, Kulshrestha Gand McNeill C Linking Biodiversity Conservation and Poverty Reduction to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals, in The Millennium Development Goals and Conservation:Managing Nature's Wealth for Society's Health, Roe Dilys, Editor.2005, IIED/UNDP.143-166.
33. He G M, Chen X D, Beaer S, Colunga M, Mertig A, An L, Zhou S Q, Linderman M, Ouyang Z Yand Gage S. Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Fuelwood Collection in Wolong Nature Reserve:Implications for Panda Conservation. Landscape and Urban Planning,2009.92(1):1-9.
34. He G M, Chen X D, Liu W, Bearer S, Zhou S Q, Cheng L Y, Zhang H M, Ouyang Z Yand Liu J G. Distribution of Economic Benefits from Ecotourism:A Case Study of Wolong Nature Reserve for Giant Pandas in China. Environmental Management, 2008.42(6):1017-1025.
35. Holt F. The Catch-22 of Conservation:Indigenous Peoples, Biologists, and Cultural Change. Human Ecology,2005.33(2):199-215.
36. Houghton R. Land-Use Change and the Carbon Cycle. Global Change Biology, 2006.1(4):275-287.
37. IPCC C. Mitigation of Climate Change:Working Group Iii Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Ipcc, 2008, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
38. Jensen J. Remote Sensing of the Environment.2009:Pearson.
39. Kiss A. Is Community-Based Ecotourism a Good Use of Biodiversity Conservation Funds? Trends in Ecology & Evolution,2004.19(5):232-237.
40. Kok K, Farrow A, Veldkamp Aand Verburg P. A Method and Application of Multi-Scale Validation in Spatial Land Use Models. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment,2001.85(1-3):223-238.
41. Kurttila M, Pesonen M, Kangas Jand Kaj anus M. Utilizing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (Ahp) in Swot Analysisjaa Hybrid Method and Its Application to a Forest-Certification Case. Forest Policy and Economics,2000.1(1):41-52.
42. Lambin Eand Geist H. Land-Use and Land-Cover Change:Local Processes and Global Impacts.2006:Springer Verlag.
43. Lauver C, BUSBY Wand Whistler J. Testing a Gis Model of Habitat Suitability for a Declining Grassland Bird. Environmental Management,2002.30(1):88-97.
44. Le Q, Park Sand Vlek P. Land Use Dynamic Simulator (Ludas):A Multi-Agent System Model for Simulating Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Coupled Human-Landscape System.2. Scenario-Based Application for Impact Assessment of Land-Use Policies. Ecological Informatics,2010.
45. Liu J G, Dietz T, Carpenter S R, Folke C, Alberti M, Redman C L, Schneider S H, Ostrom E, Pell A N, Lubchenco J, Taylor W W, Ouyang Z Y, Deadman P, Kratz Tand Provencher W. Coupled Human and Natural Systems. Ambio,2007.36(8): 639-649.
46. Liu J G, Li S X, Ouyang Z Y, Tam Cand Chen X D. Ecological and Socioeconomic Effects of China's Policies for Ecosystem Services. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A,2008. 105(28):9477-9482.
47. Liu J G, Linderman M, Ouyang Z Y, An L, Yang Jand Zhang H M. Ecological Degradation in Protected Areas:The Case of Wolong Nature Reserve for Giant Pandas. Science,2001.292(5514):98-101.
48. Liu J G, Ouyang Z Y, Taylor W W, Groop R, Tan Y Cand Zhang H M. A Framework for Evaluating the Effects of Human Factors on Wildlife Habitat:The Case of Giant Pandas. Conservation Biology,1999.13(6):1360-1370.
49. Liu J, Dietz T, Carpenter S R, Alberti M, Folke C, Moran E, Pell A N, Deadman P, Kratz T, Lubchenco J, Ostrom E, Ouyang Z, Provencher W, Redman C L, Schneider S Hand Taylor W W. Complexity of Coupled Human and Natural Systems. Science,2007.317(5844):1513-1516.
50. Loreau M, Naeem S, Inchausti P, Bengtsson J, Grime J, Hector A, Hooper D, Huston M, Raffaelli Dand Schmid B. Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning: Current Knowledge and Future Challenges. Science,2001.294(5543):804.
51. Loucks C J, Lu Z, Dinerstein E, Wang D J, Fu D Land Wang H. The Giant Pandas of the Qinling Mountains, China:A Case Study in Designing Conservation Landscapes for Elevational Migrants. The Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology,2003.17(2):558-565.
52. Loucks C J, Lu Z, Dinerstein E, Wang H, Olson D M, Zhu C Qand Wang D J. Giant Pandas in a Changing Landscape. Science,2001.294(5546):1465.
53. Margules Cand Pressey R. Systematic Conservation Planning. Nature,2000. 405(6783):243-253.
54. Mertz O, Halsnaes K, Olesen Jand Rasmussen K. Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries. Environmental Management,2009.43(5):743-752.
55. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Ecosystems and Human Well-Being:Synthesis Report. Press Island.2005.
56. Monticino M, Acevedo M, Callicott B, Cogdill Tand Lindquist C. Coupled Human and Natural Systems:A Multi-Agent-Based Approach. Environmental Modelling & Software,2007.22(5):656-663.
57. Moran D D, Wackernagel M, Kitzes J A, Goldfinger S Hand Boutaud A. Measuring . Sustainable Development-Nation by Nation. Ecological Economics,2008.64(3): 470-474.
58. Myers N. An Expanded Approach to the Problem of Disappearing Species. Science, 1976.193(4249):198.
59. Neuhoff K, Keats Kand Sato M. Allocation, Incentives and Distortions:The Impact of Eu Ets Emissions Allowance Allocations to the Electricity Sector.2006.
60. O'Brien S J, Wenshi Pand Zhi L. Pandas, People and Policy. Nature,1994. 369(6477):179-180.
61. Pagiola S. Payments for Environmental Services in Costa Rica. Ecological Economics,2008.65(4):712-724.
62. Perrot-Maitre D. The Vittel Payments for Ecosystem Services:A "Perfect" Pes Case? 2006.
63. Peterson L, Bergen K, Brown D, Vashchuk Land Blam Y. Forested Land-Cover Patterns and Trends over Changing Forest Management Eras in the Siberian Baika Region. Forest Ecology and Management,2009.257(3):911-922.
64. Pimm S, Raven P, Peterson A, ekercio lu Hand Ehrlich P. Human Impacts on the Rates of Recent, Present, and Future Bird Extinctions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2006.103(29):10941.
65. Redford Kand Stearman A. Forest-Dwelling Native Amazonians and the Conservation of Biodiversity:Interests in Common or in Collision? Conservation Biology,1993.7(2):248-255.
66. Rees W E, Wackernagel Mand Testemale P. Our Ecological Footprint:Reducing Human Impact on the Earth 1998, Gabriola Island:New Society Publishers.
67. Rees W E. Ecological Footprints and Appropriated Carrying Capacity:What Urban Economics Leaves Out. Environment and Urbanization,1992.4(2):121-130.
68. Reimoser S, Partl E, Reimoser Fand Vospernik S. Roe-Deer Habitat Suitability and Predisposition of Forest.to Browsing Damage in Its Dependence on Forest Growth(?)a Model Sensitivity in an Alpine Forest Region. Ecological Modelling,2009. 220(18):2231-2243.
69. Roe Dand Elliott J. Poverty Reduction and Biodiversity Conservation:Rebuilding the Bridges. Oryx,2004.38(02):137-139.
70. Saaty T. A Scaling Method for Priorities in Hierarchical Structures. Journal of mathematical psychology,1977.15(3):234-281.
71. Sachs J D. Sustainable Development. Science,2004.304(5671):649-
72. Sanderson S Eand Redford K H. Contested Relationships between Biodiversity Conservation and Poverty Alleviation. Oryx,2003.37(04):389-390.
73. Sandker M, Campbell B, Nzooh Z, Sunderland T, Amougou V, Defo Land Sayer J. Exploring the Effectiveness of Integrated Conservation and Development Interventions in a Central African Forest Landscape. Biodiversity and Conservation, 2009.18(11):2875-2892.
74. Shen G Z, Feng C Y, Xie Z Q, Ouyang Z Y, Li J Qand Pascal M. Proposed Conservation Landscape for Giant Pandas in the Minshan Mountains, China. Conservation Biology,2008.22(5):1144-1153.
75. Singh N, Yoccoz N, Bhatnagar Yand Fox J. Using Habitat Suitability Models to Sample Rare Species in High-Altitude Ecosystems:A Case Study with Tibetan Argali. Biodiversity and Conservation,2009.18(11):2893-2908.
76. Store Rand Kangas J. Integrating Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation and Expert Knowledge for Gis-Based Habitat Suitability Modelling. Landscape and Urban Planning,2001.55(2):79-93.
77. Subak S. Methane Embodied in the International Trade of Commodities Implications for Global Emissions. Global Environmental Change,1995.5(5): 433-446.
78. Swaisgood R R, Wei F, Wildt D E, Kouba A Jand Zhang Z. Giant Panda Conservation Science:How Far We Have Come. Biol Lett,2009.
79. Tallis H, Kareiva P, Marvier Mand Chang A. An Ecosystem Services Framework to Support Both Practical Conservation and Economic Development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2008.105(28):9457.
80. Taylor R. Community Based Natural Resource Management in Zimbabwe:The Experience of Campfire. Biodiversity and Conservation,2009.18(10):2563-2583.
81. Torquebiau Eand Taylor R. Natural Resource Management by Rural Citizens in Developing Countries:Innovations Still Required. Biodiversity and Conservation, 2009.18(10):2537-2550.
82. UNEP-WCMC. Coverage of Protected Areas.2010 [cited 2010 04-30]; Available from: http://www.unep-wcmc.org/wdpa/statistics/2010BIP_Factsheet_Coverage_of_Prote cted_Areas.pdf.
83. Ustin S, Jacquemoud S, Palacios-Orueta A, Li Land Whiting M. Remote Sensing Based Assessment of Biophysical Indicators for Land Degradation and Desertification. Recent advances in remote sensing and geoinformation processing for land degradation assessment,2009:15.
84. Vargas L. An Overview of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Its Applications. European Journal of Operational Research,1990.48(1):2-8.
85. Verburg Pand Veldkamp A. The Role of Spatially Explicit Models in Land-Use Change Research:A Case Study for Cropping Patterns in China. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment,2001.85(1-3):177-190.
86. Vina A, Bearer S, Chen X D, He G M, Linderman M, An L, Zhang H M, Ouyang Z Yand Liu J G. Temporal Changes in Giant Panda Habitat Connectivity across Boundaries of Wolong Nature Reserve, China. Ecological Applications,2007.17(4): 1019-1030.
87. Vincenzi S, Caramori G, Rossi Rand Leo G. A Gis-Based Habitat Suitability Model for Commercial Yield Estimation of Tapes Philippinarum in a Mediterranean Coastal Lagoon (Sacca Di Goro, Italy). Ecological Modelling,2006.193(1-2): 90-104.
88. Vitousek P M, Mooney H A, Lubchenco Jand Melillo J M. Human Domination of Earth's Ecosystems. Science,1997.277(5325):494-499.
89. Vospernik S, Bokalo M, Reimoser Fand Sterba H. Evaluation of a Vegetation Simulator for Roe Deer Habitat Predictions. Ecological Modelling,2007.202(3-4): 265-280.
90. Wara M. Measuring the Clean Development Mechanism's Performance and Potential. UCLAL. Rev.,2007.55:1759.
91. Western D, Wright Mand Strum S. Natural Connections.1994:Island Press Washington, DC.
92. Wilson E. The Biodiversity Crisis:A Challenge to Science. Issues in Science and Technology,1985.2:20-29.
93. World Wildlife Fund Living Planet Report 2008.2009.
94. Wunder S. Payments for Environmental Services:Some Nuts and Bolts, in CIFOR Occasional Paper.2005.
95. Wunder S. The Efficiency of Payments for Environmental Services in Tropical Conservation. Conservation Biology,2006.21(1):48-58.
96. Xu W H, Ouyang Z Y, Vina A, Zheng H, Liu J Gand Xiao Y. Designing a Conservation Plan for Protecting the Habitat for Giant Pandas in the Qionglai Mountain Range, China.Diversity and Distributions,2006.12(5):610-619.
97. 摆万奇,孙会首,阎建忠.大渡河上游地区土地覆被动态变化的尺度效应.JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES,2009.
98. 摆万奇,赵士洞.土地利用和土地覆盖变化研究模型综述.自然资源学报,1997.12(002)：169-175.
99. 陈百明,刘新卫,杨红.Lucc研究的最新进展评述.地理科学进展,2003.22(001)：22-29.
100.陈敏,张丽君,王如松,怀保光.1978年～2003年中国生态足迹动态分.资源科学,2005.27(6)：132-139.
101.除多,张镱锂,郑度.拉萨地区土地利用变化情景分析.地理研究,2005.24(006)：869-877.
102.党小虎,刘国彬,赵晓光.黄土丘陵区县南沟流域生态恢复的生态经济耦合过程及可持续性分析.生态学报,2008.28(012)：6321-6333.
103.丁敏.哥斯达黎加的森林生态补偿制度.世界环境,200.7(006)：66-69.
104.高伏均.参与式农村评估工具的使用.林业与社会,2003(004)：10-12.
105.国家林业局.全国第三次大熊猫调查报告.科学出版社.2006.
106.国务院.国务院关于完善退耕还林政策的通知.2007 [cited 2009 10-06]; Available from:http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2007-08/14/content_716617.htm.
107.何礼,魏辅文,王祖望,冯祚建,周昂,唐平,胡锦矗.相岭山系大熊猫的营养和能量对策.生态学报,2000.20(002)：177-183.
108.胡锦矗,B. Schaller G, G. Johnson K.唐家河自然保护区大熊猫的觅食生态研究.四川师范学院学报：自然科学版,1990.11(001)：1-13.
109.胡锦矗.大熊猫研究.2001：上海科技教育出版社,上海.
110.胡锦矗.追踪大熊猫的岁月.2001：海燕出版社.
111.黄季焜,朱莉芬,邓祥征.中国建设用地扩张的区域差异及其影响因素.中国科学：D辑,2007.37(009)：1235-1241.
112.李蕾,刘黎明,谢花林.退耕还林还草工程的土壤保持效益及其生态经济价值评估——以固原市原州区为例.水土保持学报,2004.18(001)：161-163.
113.李文华,李芬,李世东,刘某承.森林生态效益补偿的研究现状与展望.JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES,2006.21(5).
114.联合国.国际人口与发展会议报告.1999.
115.刘纪远,邓祥征.Lucc时空过程研究的方法进展.科学通报,2009：3251-3258.
116.刘纪远,张增祥.中国近期土地利用变化的空间格局分析.中国科学：D辑,2002.32(012)：1031-1040.
117.刘群秀,王小明.基于地形因子的藏狐生境评价及其空间容纳量的估算.动物学研究,2009.6：679-686.
118.刘世荣,温远光.杉木生产力生态学.2005,北京：气象出版社.
119.欧阳志云,李振新,刘建国,安力,张和民,谭迎春,周世强.卧龙自然保护区大熊猫生境恢复过程研究.生态学报,2002.22(011)：1840-1849.
120.欧阳志云,徐卫华,王学志,王文杰,董仁才,郑华,李迪华,李智琦,张宏锋,庄长伟.汶川大地震对生态系统的影响.生态学报,2008.28(012)：5801-5809.
121.潘文石.秦岭大熊猫的自然庇护所.1988：北京大学出版社.
122.彭文英,张科利,陈瑶,杨勤科.黄土坡耕地退耕还林后土壤性质变化研究.自然资源学报,2005.20(002)：272-278.
123.平武县县志编撰委员会.平武县志.1997,成都：四川科学技术出版社.
124.曲福田,赵海霞,朱德明.江苏省土地生态安全问题及对策研究.环境保护,2005(002)：57-59.
125.冉江洪,刘少英,王鸿加,孙治宇,曾宗永,刘世昌.放牧对冶勒自然保护区大熊猫生境的影响.兽类学报,2003.23(004)：288-294.
126.申国珍,谢宗强,冯朝阳,徐文婷,柯郭.汶川地震对大熊猫栖息地的影响与恢复对策.植物生态学报,2008.32(6)：1417-425
127.时寒冰.旱灾真相实地调查(上部)净化版.2010 [cited 2010 04-15]; Available from:http://shihb.blog.sohu.com/148258905.html.
128.史培军,宫鹏,李晓兵.土地利用／覆盖变化研究的方法与实践北京：科学出版社2000,P.
129.四川省林业勘察设计研究院.天然林资源保护工程四川省实施方案.2001.
130.孙新章,谢高地,张其仔,周海林,郭朝先,汪晓春,刘荣霞.中国生态补偿的实践及其政策取向.资源科学,2006.28(004)：25-30.
131.孙新章,谢高地,甄霖.泾河流域退耕还林(草)综合效益与生态补偿趋 向——以宁夏回族自治区固原市原州区为例.资源科学,2007.29(002)：194-200.
132.田波,周云轩，张利权,马志军,杨波,汤臣栋.遥感与Gis支持下的崇明东滩迁徙鸟类生境适宜性分析.生态学报,2008.28(7).
133.汪小钦,王钦敏,励惠国,刘高焕.黄河三角洲土地利用／覆盖变化驱动力分析.资源科学,2007.29(005)：175-181.
134.王文杰,潘英姿,徐卫华,王晶晶,白雪.四川汶川地震对生态系统破坏及其生态影响分析.环境科学研究,2008.21(005)：110-116.
135.王献溥,刘韶杰.生物多样性保护与持续利用的有效途径.科学对社会的影响,2008(004)：17-22.
136.王秀磊,李迪强,吴波,杨洪晓.青海湖东-克图地区普氏原羚生境适宜性评价.生物多样性,2005.13(003)：213-220.
137.王学志,徐卫华,欧阳志云,张晋东.汶川地震对都江堰地区大熊猫生境的影响.生态学报,2008.28(012)：5856-5861.
138.王学志，徐卫华，欧阳志云.农用地时空变化对大熊猫生境的影响：以岷山中部地区的白草河流域为例.生物多样性,2009.17(1)：10-18.
139.王学志,徐卫华,欧阳志云.农用地时空变化对大熊猫生境的影响：以岷山中部地区的白草河流域为例.生物多样性,2009.17(1).
140.郗凤明,贺红士,胡远满,吴晓青,包丽,田颖,王晋年,马文军.营口市城市及村镇聚落增长与土地利用变化的模拟预测.应用生态学报,2008.19(007)：1529-1536.
141.肖燚,欧阳志云,朱春全,赵景柱,何国金,王效科.岷山地区大熊猫生境评价与保护对策研究.生态学报,2004.24(007)：1373-1379.
142.徐建英,陈利顶,吕一河,傅伯杰.基于参与性调查的退耕还林政策可持续性评价——卧龙自然保护区研究.生态学报,2006.26(11).
143.徐卫华,欧阳志云,蒋泽银,郑华,刘建国.大相岭山系大熊猫生境评价与保护对策研究.生物多样性,2006.14(003)：223-231.
144.严旬.大熊猫自然保护区体系研究.2005,北京林业大学.
145.杨春花,张和民,周小平,王鹏彦,王小明.大熊猫(Ailuropoda Melanoleuca)生境选择研究进展.生态学报,2006.26(010)：3442-3453.
146.于涌鲲.四川省平武县大熊猫保护对策初步研究.2003,中国林业科学研究院.
147.袁力.土地格局时空变化对扎龙湿地鹤类生境影响的研究.2008,东北林业大学.
148.张杰,周寅康,李仁强,周兆军,张利权,师庆东,潘晓玲.土地利用／覆盖变化空间直观模拟精度检验与不确定性分析.中国科学D辑,2009.39(11)： 1560-1569.
149.张泽钧,胡锦矗.大熊猫生境选择研究.四川师范学院学报：自然科学版,2000.21(001)：18-21.
150.章锦河,张捷.国外生态足迹模型修正与前沿研究进展.资源科学,2006.28(006)：196-203.
151.赵跃龙,刘燕华.中国脆弱生态环境分布及其与贫困的关系.地球科学进展,1996.11(003)：245-251.
152.赵占轻,黄玲玲,张旭东,郭志华,张小全,王建力,向洪波.张家界女儿寨小流域植被变化驱动力.生态学报,2010.30(5)：1238-1246.
153.支玲,李怒云,田治威,王娟,林德荣.西部退耕还林工程社会影响评价——以会泽县,清镇市为例.林业科学,2004.40(003)：2-11.
154.中国环境与发展国际合作委员会,世界自然基金会.中国生态足迹报告.2009.
155.周洁敏.大熊猫生境质量评价体系研究.2008,北京林业大学.
156.周生贤.中国林业的历史性转变.北京.中国林业出版社.,2002.
2. Adger W, Hughes T, Folke C, Carpenter Sand Rockstrom J. Social-Ecological Resilience to Coastal Disasters. Science,2005.309(5737):1036.
3. Agrawal Aand Redford K. Poverty, Development, and Biodiversity Conservation: Shooting in the Dark? Vol.26.2006:Wildlife Conservation Society.
4. Andersson Jand Lindroth M. Ecologically Unsustainable Trade. Ecological Economics, 2001.37(1):113-122.
5. Aspinall R. Modelling Land Use Change with Generalized Linear Models-a Multi-Model Analysis of Change between 1860 and 2000 in Gallatin Valley, Montana. Journal of Environmental Management,2004.72(1-2):91-103.
6. B. Kelsey J, Carolyn Kand Katharine R E S. Designing Payments for Ecosystem Services:Lessons from Previous Experience with Incentive-Based Mechanisms. PNAS,2008.105(28):9465-9470.
7. Bakker M, Govers G, Kosmas C, Vanacker V, Oost Kand Rounsevell M. Soil Erosion as a Driver of Land-Use Change. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment,2005. 105(3):467-481.
8. Bawa K, Seidler Rand Raven P. Reconciling Conservation Paradigms. Conservation Biology,2004.18(4):859-860.
9. Bearer S, Linderman M, Huang J Y, An L, He G Mand Liu J G. Effects of Fuelwood Collection and Timber Harvesting on Giant Panda Habitat Use. Biological Conservation,2008.141(2):385-393.
10. Berkes F. Community-Based Conservation in a Globalized World. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2007.104(39):15188-15193.
11. Berkes F. Rethinking Community-Based Conservation. Conservation Biology,2004. vol.18(no.3).
12. Bhutta Kand Huq F. Supplier Selection Problem:A Comparison of the Total Cost of Ownership and Analytic Hierarchy Process Approaches. Supply Chain Management:An International Journal,2002.7(3):126-135.
13. Boedhihartono A K, Gunarso P, Levang Pand Sayer J. The Principles of Conservation and Development:Do They Apply in Malinau? Ecology And Society, 2007.12(2).
14. Bradshaw A. The Use of Natural Processes in Reclamation-Advantages and Difficulties. Landscape and Urban Planning,2000.51(2-4):89-100.
15. Brockington D, Igoe Jand Schmidt-Soltau K. Conservation, Human Rights, and Poverty Reduction. Conservation Biology,2006.20(1):250-252.
16. Brooks R P. Improving Habitat Suitability Index Models. Wildlife society bulletin, 1997.
17. Brooks T M, Mittermeier R A,Mittermeier C G, Fonseca G A B d, Rylands A B, Konstant W R, Flick P, Pilgrim J, Oldfield S, Magin Gand Hilton-Taylor C. Habitat Loss and Extinction in the Hotspots of Biodiversity. Conservation Biology,2002. 16(4):909-923.
18. Cao S X, Zhong B L, Yue H, Zeng H Sand Zeng J H. Development and Testing of a Sustainable Environmental Restoration Policy on Eradicating the Poverty Trap in China's Changting County. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A,2009.106(26):10712-10716.
19. CHEN X D, LUPI F, HE G M, OUYANG Z Yand LIU J G. Factors Affecting Land Reconversion Plans Following a Payment for Ecosystem Service Program.2009. 142(8):1740-1747.
20. Christensen Mand Heilmann-Clausen J. Forest Biodiversity Gradients and the Human Impact in Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal. Biodiversity and Conservation,2009.18(8):2205-2221.
21. Clough P. Encouraging Private Biodiversity-Incentives for Biodiversity Conservation on Private Land. Treasury Working Paper Series,2000.
22. Dettki H, L fstrand Rand Edenius L. Modeling Habitat Suitability for Moose in Coastal Northern Sweden:Empirical Vs Process-Oriented Approaches. AMBIO:A Journal of the Human Environment,2003.32(8):549-556.
23. Donald Land Karen B, eds. Giant Pandas:Biology and Conservation.2004, University of California Press.
24. Dussault C, Courtois Rand Ouellet J. A Habitat Suitability Index Model to Assess Moose Habitat Selection at Multiple Spatial Scales. Canadian Journal of Forest Research,2006.36(5):1097-1107.
25. Engel S, Wunscher Tand Wunder S. Increasing the Efficiency of Forest Conservation:The Case of Payments for Environmental Services in Costa Rica. Avoided deforestation:Prospects for mitigating climate change. Oxford, Routledge, 2009:314-328.
26. Fahrig L. Relative Effects of Habitat Loss and Fragmentation on Population Extinction. The Journal of Wildlife Management,1997.61(3):603-610.
27. Ferraro Pand Kiss A. Ecology:Direct Payments to Conserve Biodiversity. Science, 2002.298(5599):1718.
28. Foley J, DeFries R, Asner G, Barford C, Bonan G, Carpenter S, Chapin F, Coe M, Daily Gand Gibbs H. Global Consequences of Land Use. Science,2005.309(5734): 570.
29.Gerbens-Leenes P, Nonhebel Sand Ivens W. A Method to Determine Land Requirements Relating to Food Consumption Patterns. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment,2002.90(1):47-58.
30. Gerbens-Leenes Pand Nonhebel S. Consumption Patterns and Their Effects on Land Required for Food. Ecological Economics,2002.42(1-2):185-199.
31. Hackel J. Community Conservation and the Future of Africa's Wildlife. Conservation Biology,2001.13(4):726-734.
32. Hazlewood P, Kulshrestha Gand McNeill C Linking Biodiversity Conservation and Poverty Reduction to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals, in The Millennium Development Goals and Conservation:Managing Nature's Wealth for Society's Health, Roe Dilys, Editor.2005, IIED/UNDP.143-166.
33. He G M, Chen X D, Beaer S, Colunga M, Mertig A, An L, Zhou S Q, Linderman M, Ouyang Z Yand Gage S. Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Fuelwood Collection in Wolong Nature Reserve:Implications for Panda Conservation. Landscape and Urban Planning,2009.92(1):1-9.
34. He G M, Chen X D, Liu W, Bearer S, Zhou S Q, Cheng L Y, Zhang H M, Ouyang Z Yand Liu J G. Distribution of Economic Benefits from Ecotourism:A Case Study of Wolong Nature Reserve for Giant Pandas in China. Environmental Management, 2008.42(6):1017-1025.
35. Holt F. The Catch-22 of Conservation:Indigenous Peoples, Biologists, and Cultural Change. Human Ecology,2005.33(2):199-215.
36. Houghton R. Land-Use Change and the Carbon Cycle. Global Change Biology, 2006.1(4):275-287.
37. IPCC C. Mitigation of Climate Change:Working Group Iii Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Ipcc, 2008, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
38. Jensen J. Remote Sensing of the Environment.2009:Pearson.
39. Kiss A. Is Community-Based Ecotourism a Good Use of Biodiversity Conservation Funds? Trends in Ecology & Evolution,2004.19(5):232-237.
40. Kok K, Farrow A, Veldkamp Aand Verburg P. A Method and Application of Multi-Scale Validation in Spatial Land Use Models. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment,2001.85(1-3):223-238.
41. Kurttila M, Pesonen M, Kangas Jand Kaj anus M. Utilizing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (Ahp) in Swot Analysisjaa Hybrid Method and Its Application to a Forest-Certification Case. Forest Policy and Economics,2000.1(1):41-52.
42. Lambin Eand Geist H. Land-Use and Land-Cover Change:Local Processes and Global Impacts.2006:Springer Verlag.
43. Lauver C, BUSBY Wand Whistler J. Testing a Gis Model of Habitat Suitability for a Declining Grassland Bird. Environmental Management,2002.30(1):88-97.
44. Le Q, Park Sand Vlek P. Land Use Dynamic Simulator (Ludas):A Multi-Agent System Model for Simulating Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Coupled Human-Landscape System.2. Scenario-Based Application for Impact Assessment of Land-Use Policies. Ecological Informatics,2010.
45. Liu J G, Dietz T, Carpenter S R, Folke C, Alberti M, Redman C L, Schneider S H, Ostrom E, Pell A N, Lubchenco J, Taylor W W, Ouyang Z Y, Deadman P, Kratz Tand Provencher W. Coupled Human and Natural Systems. Ambio,2007.36(8): 639-649.
46. Liu J G, Li S X, Ouyang Z Y, Tam Cand Chen X D. Ecological and Socioeconomic Effects of China's Policies for Ecosystem Services. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A,2008. 105(28):9477-9482.
47. Liu J G, Linderman M, Ouyang Z Y, An L, Yang Jand Zhang H M. Ecological Degradation in Protected Areas:The Case of Wolong Nature Reserve for Giant Pandas. Science,2001.292(5514):98-101.
48. Liu J G, Ouyang Z Y, Taylor W W, Groop R, Tan Y Cand Zhang H M. A Framework for Evaluating the Effects of Human Factors on Wildlife Habitat:The Case of Giant Pandas. Conservation Biology,1999.13(6):1360-1370.
49. Liu J, Dietz T, Carpenter S R, Alberti M, Folke C, Moran E, Pell A N, Deadman P, Kratz T, Lubchenco J, Ostrom E, Ouyang Z, Provencher W, Redman C L, Schneider S Hand Taylor W W. Complexity of Coupled Human and Natural Systems. Science,2007.317(5844):1513-1516.
50. Loreau M, Naeem S, Inchausti P, Bengtsson J, Grime J, Hector A, Hooper D, Huston M, Raffaelli Dand Schmid B. Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning: Current Knowledge and Future Challenges. Science,2001.294(5543):804.
51. Loucks C J, Lu Z, Dinerstein E, Wang D J, Fu D Land Wang H. The Giant Pandas of the Qinling Mountains, China:A Case Study in Designing Conservation Landscapes for Elevational Migrants. The Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology,2003.17(2):558-565.
52. Loucks C J, Lu Z, Dinerstein E, Wang H, Olson D M, Zhu C Qand Wang D J. Giant Pandas in a Changing Landscape. Science,2001.294(5546):1465.
53. Margules Cand Pressey R. Systematic Conservation Planning. Nature,2000. 405(6783):243-253.
54. Mertz O, Halsnaes K, Olesen Jand Rasmussen K. Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries. Environmental Management,2009.43(5):743-752.
55. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Ecosystems and Human Well-Being:Synthesis Report. Press Island.2005.
56. Monticino M, Acevedo M, Callicott B, Cogdill Tand Lindquist C. Coupled Human and Natural Systems:A Multi-Agent-Based Approach. Environmental Modelling & Software,2007.22(5):656-663.
57. Moran D D, Wackernagel M, Kitzes J A, Goldfinger S Hand Boutaud A. Measuring . Sustainable Development-Nation by Nation. Ecological Economics,2008.64(3): 470-474.
58. Myers N. An Expanded Approach to the Problem of Disappearing Species. Science, 1976.193(4249):198.
59. Neuhoff K, Keats Kand Sato M. Allocation, Incentives and Distortions:The Impact of Eu Ets Emissions Allowance Allocations to the Electricity Sector.2006.
60. O'Brien S J, Wenshi Pand Zhi L. Pandas, People and Policy. Nature,1994. 369(6477):179-180.
61. Pagiola S. Payments for Environmental Services in Costa Rica. Ecological Economics,2008.65(4):712-724.
62. Perrot-Maitre D. The Vittel Payments for Ecosystem Services:A "Perfect" Pes Case? 2006.
63. Peterson L, Bergen K, Brown D, Vashchuk Land Blam Y. Forested Land-Cover Patterns and Trends over Changing Forest Management Eras in the Siberian Baika Region. Forest Ecology and Management,2009.257(3):911-922.
64. Pimm S, Raven P, Peterson A, ekercio lu Hand Ehrlich P. Human Impacts on the Rates of Recent, Present, and Future Bird Extinctions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2006.103(29):10941.
65. Redford Kand Stearman A. Forest-Dwelling Native Amazonians and the Conservation of Biodiversity:Interests in Common or in Collision? Conservation Biology,1993.7(2):248-255.
66. Rees W E, Wackernagel Mand Testemale P. Our Ecological Footprint:Reducing Human Impact on the Earth 1998, Gabriola Island:New Society Publishers.
67. Rees W E. Ecological Footprints and Appropriated Carrying Capacity:What Urban Economics Leaves Out. Environment and Urbanization,1992.4(2):121-130.
68. Reimoser S, Partl E, Reimoser Fand Vospernik S. Roe-Deer Habitat Suitability and Predisposition of Forest.to Browsing Damage in Its Dependence on Forest Growth(?)a Model Sensitivity in an Alpine Forest Region. Ecological Modelling,2009. 220(18):2231-2243.
69. Roe Dand Elliott J. Poverty Reduction and Biodiversity Conservation:Rebuilding the Bridges. Oryx,2004.38(02):137-139.
70. Saaty T. A Scaling Method for Priorities in Hierarchical Structures. Journal of mathematical psychology,1977.15(3):234-281.
71. Sachs J D. Sustainable Development. Science,2004.304(5671):649-
72. Sanderson S Eand Redford K H. Contested Relationships between Biodiversity Conservation and Poverty Alleviation. Oryx,2003.37(04):389-390.
73. Sandker M, Campbell B, Nzooh Z, Sunderland T, Amougou V, Defo Land Sayer J. Exploring the Effectiveness of Integrated Conservation and Development Interventions in a Central African Forest Landscape. Biodiversity and Conservation, 2009.18(11):2875-2892.
74. Shen G Z, Feng C Y, Xie Z Q, Ouyang Z Y, Li J Qand Pascal M. Proposed Conservation Landscape for Giant Pandas in the Minshan Mountains, China. Conservation Biology,2008.22(5):1144-1153.
75. Singh N, Yoccoz N, Bhatnagar Yand Fox J. Using Habitat Suitability Models to Sample Rare Species in High-Altitude Ecosystems:A Case Study with Tibetan Argali. Biodiversity and Conservation,2009.18(11):2893-2908.
76. Store Rand Kangas J. Integrating Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation and Expert Knowledge for Gis-Based Habitat Suitability Modelling. Landscape and Urban Planning,2001.55(2):79-93.
77. Subak S. Methane Embodied in the International Trade of Commodities Implications for Global Emissions. Global Environmental Change,1995.5(5): 433-446.
78. Swaisgood R R, Wei F, Wildt D E, Kouba A Jand Zhang Z. Giant Panda Conservation Science:How Far We Have Come. Biol Lett,2009.
79. Tallis H, Kareiva P, Marvier Mand Chang A. An Ecosystem Services Framework to Support Both Practical Conservation and Economic Development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2008.105(28):9457.
80. Taylor R. Community Based Natural Resource Management in Zimbabwe:The Experience of Campfire. Biodiversity and Conservation,2009.18(10):2563-2583.
81. Torquebiau Eand Taylor R. Natural Resource Management by Rural Citizens in Developing Countries:Innovations Still Required. Biodiversity and Conservation, 2009.18(10):2537-2550.
82. UNEP-WCMC. Coverage of Protected Areas.2010 [cited 2010 04-30]; Available from: http://www.unep-wcmc.org/wdpa/statistics/2010BIP_Factsheet_Coverage_of_Prote cted_Areas.pdf.
83. Ustin S, Jacquemoud S, Palacios-Orueta A, Li Land Whiting M. Remote Sensing Based Assessment of Biophysical Indicators for Land Degradation and Desertification. Recent advances in remote sensing and geoinformation processing for land degradation assessment,2009:15.
84. Vargas L. An Overview of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Its Applications. European Journal of Operational Research,1990.48(1):2-8.
85. Verburg Pand Veldkamp A. The Role of Spatially Explicit Models in Land-Use Change Research:A Case Study for Cropping Patterns in China. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment,2001.85(1-3):177-190.
86. Vina A, Bearer S, Chen X D, He G M, Linderman M, An L, Zhang H M, Ouyang Z Yand Liu J G. Temporal Changes in Giant Panda Habitat Connectivity across Boundaries of Wolong Nature Reserve, China. Ecological Applications,2007.17(4): 1019-1030.
87. Vincenzi S, Caramori G, Rossi Rand Leo G. A Gis-Based Habitat Suitability Model for Commercial Yield Estimation of Tapes Philippinarum in a Mediterranean Coastal Lagoon (Sacca Di Goro, Italy). Ecological Modelling,2006.193(1-2): 90-104.
88. Vitousek P M, Mooney H A, Lubchenco Jand Melillo J M. Human Domination of Earth's Ecosystems. Science,1997.277(5325):494-499.
89. Vospernik S, Bokalo M, Reimoser Fand Sterba H. Evaluation of a Vegetation Simulator for Roe Deer Habitat Predictions. Ecological Modelling,2007.202(3-4): 265-280.
90. Wara M. Measuring the Clean Development Mechanism's Performance and Potential. UCLAL. Rev.,2007.55:1759.
91. Western D, Wright Mand Strum S. Natural Connections.1994:Island Press Washington, DC.
92. Wilson E. The Biodiversity Crisis:A Challenge to Science. Issues in Science and Technology,1985.2:20-29.
93. World Wildlife Fund Living Planet Report 2008.2009.
94. Wunder S. Payments for Environmental Services:Some Nuts and Bolts, in CIFOR Occasional Paper.2005.
95. Wunder S. The Efficiency of Payments for Environmental Services in Tropical Conservation. Conservation Biology,2006.21(1):48-58.
96. Xu W H, Ouyang Z Y, Vina A, Zheng H, Liu J Gand Xiao Y. Designing a Conservation Plan for Protecting the Habitat for Giant Pandas in the Qionglai Mountain Range, China.Diversity and Distributions,2006.12(5):610-619.
97. 摆万奇,孙会首,阎建忠.大渡河上游地区土地覆被动态变化的尺度效应.JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES,2009.
98. 摆万奇,赵士洞.土地利用和土地覆盖变化研究模型综述.自然资源学报,1997.12(002)：169-175.
99. 陈百明,刘新卫,杨红.Lucc研究的最新进展评述.地理科学进展,2003.22(001)：22-29.
100.陈敏,张丽君,王如松,怀保光.1978年～2003年中国生态足迹动态分.资源科学,2005.27(6)：132-139.
101.除多,张镱锂,郑度.拉萨地区土地利用变化情景分析.地理研究,2005.24(006)：869-877.
102.党小虎,刘国彬,赵晓光.黄土丘陵区县南沟流域生态恢复的生态经济耦合过程及可持续性分析.生态学报,2008.28(012)：6321-6333.
103.丁敏.哥斯达黎加的森林生态补偿制度.世界环境,200.7(006)：66-69.
104.高伏均.参与式农村评估工具的使用.林业与社会,2003(004)：10-12.
105.国家林业局.全国第三次大熊猫调查报告.科学出版社.2006.
106.国务院.国务院关于完善退耕还林政策的通知.2007 [cited 2009 10-06]; Available from:http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2007-08/14/content_716617.htm.
107.何礼,魏辅文,王祖望,冯祚建,周昂,唐平,胡锦矗.相岭山系大熊猫的营养和能量对策.生态学报,2000.20(002)：177-183.
108.胡锦矗,B. Schaller G, G. Johnson K.唐家河自然保护区大熊猫的觅食生态研究.四川师范学院学报：自然科学版,1990.11(001)：1-13.
109.胡锦矗.大熊猫研究.2001：上海科技教育出版社,上海.
110.胡锦矗.追踪大熊猫的岁月.2001：海燕出版社.
111.黄季焜,朱莉芬,邓祥征.中国建设用地扩张的区域差异及其影响因素.中国科学：D辑,2007.37(009)：1235-1241.
112.李蕾,刘黎明,谢花林.退耕还林还草工程的土壤保持效益及其生态经济价值评估——以固原市原州区为例.水土保持学报,2004.18(001)：161-163.
113.李文华,李芬,李世东,刘某承.森林生态效益补偿的研究现状与展望.JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES,2006.21(5).
114.联合国.国际人口与发展会议报告.1999.
115.刘纪远,邓祥征.Lucc时空过程研究的方法进展.科学通报,2009：3251-3258.
116.刘纪远,张增祥.中国近期土地利用变化的空间格局分析.中国科学：D辑,2002.32(012)：1031-1040.
117.刘群秀,王小明.基于地形因子的藏狐生境评价及其空间容纳量的估算.动物学研究,2009.6：679-686.
118.刘世荣,温远光.杉木生产力生态学.2005,北京：气象出版社.
119.欧阳志云,李振新,刘建国,安力,张和民,谭迎春,周世强.卧龙自然保护区大熊猫生境恢复过程研究.生态学报,2002.22(011)：1840-1849.
120.欧阳志云,徐卫华,王学志,王文杰,董仁才,郑华,李迪华,李智琦,张宏锋,庄长伟.汶川大地震对生态系统的影响.生态学报,2008.28(012)：5801-5809.
121.潘文石.秦岭大熊猫的自然庇护所.1988：北京大学出版社.
122.彭文英,张科利,陈瑶,杨勤科.黄土坡耕地退耕还林后土壤性质变化研究.自然资源学报,2005.20(002)：272-278.
123.平武县县志编撰委员会.平武县志.1997,成都：四川科学技术出版社.
124.曲福田,赵海霞,朱德明.江苏省土地生态安全问题及对策研究.环境保护,2005(002)：57-59.
125.冉江洪,刘少英,王鸿加,孙治宇,曾宗永,刘世昌.放牧对冶勒自然保护区大熊猫生境的影响.兽类学报,2003.23(004)：288-294.
126.申国珍,谢宗强,冯朝阳,徐文婷,柯郭.汶川地震对大熊猫栖息地的影响与恢复对策.植物生态学报,2008.32(6)：1417-425
127.时寒冰.旱灾真相实地调查(上部)净化版.2010 [cited 2010 04-15]; Available from:http://shihb.blog.sohu.com/148258905.html.
128.史培军,宫鹏,李晓兵.土地利用／覆盖变化研究的方法与实践北京：科学出版社2000,P.
129.四川省林业勘察设计研究院.天然林资源保护工程四川省实施方案.2001.
130.孙新章,谢高地,张其仔,周海林,郭朝先,汪晓春,刘荣霞.中国生态补偿的实践及其政策取向.资源科学,2006.28(004)：25-30.
131.孙新章,谢高地,甄霖.泾河流域退耕还林(草)综合效益与生态补偿趋 向——以宁夏回族自治区固原市原州区为例.资源科学,2007.29(002)：194-200.
132.田波,周云轩，张利权,马志军,杨波,汤臣栋.遥感与Gis支持下的崇明东滩迁徙鸟类生境适宜性分析.生态学报,2008.28(7).
133.汪小钦,王钦敏,励惠国,刘高焕.黄河三角洲土地利用／覆盖变化驱动力分析.资源科学,2007.29(005)：175-181.
134.王文杰,潘英姿,徐卫华,王晶晶,白雪.四川汶川地震对生态系统破坏及其生态影响分析.环境科学研究,2008.21(005)：110-116.
135.王献溥,刘韶杰.生物多样性保护与持续利用的有效途径.科学对社会的影响,2008(004)：17-22.
136.王秀磊,李迪强,吴波,杨洪晓.青海湖东-克图地区普氏原羚生境适宜性评价.生物多样性,2005.13(003)：213-220.
137.王学志,徐卫华,欧阳志云,张晋东.汶川地震对都江堰地区大熊猫生境的影响.生态学报,2008.28(012)：5856-5861.
138.王学志，徐卫华，欧阳志云.农用地时空变化对大熊猫生境的影响：以岷山中部地区的白草河流域为例.生物多样性,2009.17(1)：10-18.
139.王学志,徐卫华,欧阳志云.农用地时空变化对大熊猫生境的影响：以岷山中部地区的白草河流域为例.生物多样性,2009.17(1).
140.郗凤明,贺红士,胡远满,吴晓青,包丽,田颖,王晋年,马文军.营口市城市及村镇聚落增长与土地利用变化的模拟预测.应用生态学报,2008.19(007)：1529-1536.
141.肖燚,欧阳志云,朱春全,赵景柱,何国金,王效科.岷山地区大熊猫生境评价与保护对策研究.生态学报,2004.24(007)：1373-1379.
142.徐建英,陈利顶,吕一河,傅伯杰.基于参与性调查的退耕还林政策可持续性评价——卧龙自然保护区研究.生态学报,2006.26(11).
143.徐卫华,欧阳志云,蒋泽银,郑华,刘建国.大相岭山系大熊猫生境评价与保护对策研究.生物多样性,2006.14(003)：223-231.
144.严旬.大熊猫自然保护区体系研究.2005,北京林业大学.
145.杨春花,张和民,周小平,王鹏彦,王小明.大熊猫(Ailuropoda Melanoleuca)生境选择研究进展.生态学报,2006.26(010)：3442-3453.
146.于涌鲲.四川省平武县大熊猫保护对策初步研究.2003,中国林业科学研究院.
147.袁力.土地格局时空变化对扎龙湿地鹤类生境影响的研究.2008,东北林业大学.
148.张杰,周寅康,李仁强,周兆军,张利权,师庆东,潘晓玲.土地利用／覆盖变化空间直观模拟精度检验与不确定性分析.中国科学D辑,2009.39(11)： 1560-1569.
149.张泽钧,胡锦矗.大熊猫生境选择研究.四川师范学院学报：自然科学版,2000.21(001)：18-21.
150.章锦河,张捷.国外生态足迹模型修正与前沿研究进展.资源科学,2006.28(006)：196-203.
151.赵跃龙,刘燕华.中国脆弱生态环境分布及其与贫困的关系.地球科学进展,1996.11(003)：245-251.
152.赵占轻,黄玲玲,张旭东,郭志华,张小全,王建力,向洪波.张家界女儿寨小流域植被变化驱动力.生态学报,2010.30(5)：1238-1246.
153.支玲,李怒云,田治威,王娟,林德荣.西部退耕还林工程社会影响评价——以会泽县,清镇市为例.林业科学,2004.40(003)：2-11.
154.中国环境与发展国际合作委员会,世界自然基金会.中国生态足迹报告.2009.
155.周洁敏.大熊猫生境质量评价体系研究.2008,北京林业大学.
156.周生贤.中国林业的历史性转变.北京.中国林业出版社.,2002.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |