电网企业资产管理模型及应用研究
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摘要
随着智能电网建设的深入开展，电网经营企业的经营环境变得日趋复杂，电网企业从未像现在这样面临着确保供电服务质量和优化投资及成本支出的双重压力，高效地开展资产管理，无疑成为国际电网企业应对这种两难困境的必然选择。长期以来，电网企业一个突出特点是资产密集，如何高效地运作不断增加的庞大资产，实现电网资产的最优化管理，是提高电网企业经营绩效的关键问题。经过长期研究发现，电网企业的资产具有地域分散、发展迅速、新接入量大和配电资产变动频繁等特点。与电信、石油，甚至发电等其他资产密集型企业相比，电网企业的资产管理有其独特性，从而决定了电网企业无法简单借鉴其它行业的成功案例。
本文以电网企业资产管理为对象，分别针对电网企业资产管理中的全寿命周期费用模型、设备购置决策方法、电网企业设备维修决策模型以及资产风险与电价的关联关系进行了研究，并在理论研究基础上开展了电网公司资产全寿命周期管理实践。论文主要内容包括：
①电网企业资产全寿命周期费用模型。本文从电力设备整个寿命周期为出发点，对电力设备的费用模型进行了研究。根据电网企业的信息不完整特点将灰色系统理论引入电力设备的全寿命周期费用建模方法中，建立了电力设备的全寿命周期费用模型；在该模型中将费用分为一次性投资费用和运行维护费用两大类，着重研究了运行维护费用的计算方法，通过将灰色关联加权组合应用到运行维护费用统计数据分析中，并根据最大灰色关联度理论，确定了运行维护费用最佳拟合函数，从而解决了电网企业设备资产的全寿命周期费用的定量计算问题。论文算例验证了所建模型的适用性。
②基于费用-效能分析的电力设备购置决策。电网的快速发展导致电力资产快速增加，在电力设备采购决策方面存在重性能轻费用或重费用轻性能的决策摇摆问题。为解决这一问题，在分析影响电力设备费效性能主要因素的基础之上，建立了电力设备费效模糊综合评判法。用该方法对参与投标的设备进行综合费效评估排序，可为设备招标采购工作提供客观参考，减少评标过程中的不确定因素，在电力设备购置决策中具有很好的应用价值。
③电力企业资产管理的维修决策模型。电力设备维修管理耗费大量人力物力，是电网企业资产管理的另一重要工作，其管理难点在于难以建立同时考虑可靠性和经济性的模型。本文从系统整体效益出发建立了电网企业资产管理中所需的设备维修决策模型，考虑了由于维修停运引起的可靠性损失。在负荷削减损失中计及了主动削减负荷量和网损增量的变化，很好的计及了由于系统中设备维修对于整个系统可靠性和经济性的影响。所提模型有利于电网企业在保障电网安全的前提下最大限度地降低维修成本，从而达到系统整体可靠性和经济性的综合平衡。
④电力资产运行风险在电价上的反映。随着新能源接入和智能电网建设的发展，电力市场将快速发展。为弥补电网企业传统电价管理方法的不足，研究了电网资产运行过程中与电价的关联关系。首先建立了计及电网运行风险的峰谷电价模型，进一步提出了一种计及电力系统短期运行风险的实时电价管理新策略。该方法根据系统各个时段内的运行风险水平来调整电价，当系统运行风险水平较高时，升高价格促使电力用户减少用电量或调整用电时间，从而降低运行风险；当运行风险较低时，在可接受的风险水平内降低价格刺激用户增加用电量，以保证系统运行的稳定性。
⑤基于资产模型的全寿命周期管理实践。根据建立的资产全寿命周期费用模型及决策理论，在广东电网公司开展了资产全寿命周期管理实践，提出了基于电网资产全寿命周期管理的四因素管理模型，包含了资产的全寿命周期费用、使用的可靠性、效率、使用寿命四大关键要素，并根据这四大关键要素建立了系列考核指标，构建了管理保障体系。
As increasing complicated management environment of power grid enterprises dueto the deepening of the smart grid, power grid enterprises have never been faced withdouble pressure from ensuring power supply service quality and optimizing investmentand cost expense as today. Carrying out asset management efficiently will undoubtedlybe an inevitable choice for international power grid enterprises to cope with suchdilemma. For a long time, an outstanding characteristic of power grid enterprises isasset-intensive. The key problems of improving the business performance of power gridenterprises are how to operate the increasing huge assets efficiently and achieve optimalmanagement of power grid assets. After a long time global study, power grid assetshave the characteristics of regional decentralization, rapid development, large amount ofnew access and frequency changes, etc. Compared with telecom company, petroleumenterprise, even generation enterprises and other asset-intensive enterprises, the assetmanagement of power grid enterprises is more complicated and difficult, whichdetermines that successful cases of other industries cannot be imitated simply.
By taking the cost model of asset management of power grid enterprises as theresearch object, the life cycle cost model, equipment maintenance decision model ofpower grid enterprises and strategies of electric price management considering risk arerespectively studied in this paper.
①The life cycle cost model of power equipment. Power equipments are the mainassets of power grid enterprises and their assets values at different stages during thewhole life cycle are different. Based on the life cycle cost of power equipments, the costmodel is studied by introducing grey system theory into the analysis of its whole lifecycle cost and establishing the whole life cycle model in this paper. Cost in the model isdivided into one-off investment cost and operation and maintenance cost, and thecalculation methods of operation and maintenance costs are emphatically studied. Thispaper proposes the application of using the synthesizing grey relational degree as theweights to calculate the operation and maintenance cost for the prediction grey areacaused by different periods of failure time. Then the calculation model can be achievedaccording to the maximum grey relational degree theory to confirm the best-fitdistribution of operation and maintenance cost.
Taking the minimum whole life cycle cost as object and combine with thecalculation method of one-off investment cost based on time-proportion, the life cyclecost model of power equipment is established by integration of the two parts of cost.The calculation example in this paper carries out the decision analysis of whetheradopting conventional protection system or integrated automation system in substationwith above methods, calculates the LCC value, quantitatively indicates the applicabilityof grey system theory in the analysis and evaluation of LCC and obtains the judgmentsof integrated automation system according with the results of conventional method.
②The power equipment bidding and purchasing decision based on cost-benefitanalyzing. Decision problems of electric power equipment purchasing in the assetsmanagement of power grid enterprises are studied. On the basis of analyzing the mainfactors influencing the cost-benefit performance of power equipment, the cost-benefitfuzzy synthetic assessment method is established. That the integrative cost-benefitevaluation ordering for the equipments participated in tender bidding is realized withthe method, can provide objective reference for equipment public bidding andpurchasing, reduce the uncertain factors in the bidding appraisal process as well asshows the potential application value of the method in power equipment purchasedecision.
③The maintenance decision model of power assets management. Powerequipment maintenance management is another important job in assets management andthe difficult point is to establish the model simultaneously considering reliability andeconomy. Based on the integral benefits of power system, equipment maintenancedecision model needed in the assets management of power grid enterprises isestablished in this paper. The model has considered the increments of curtailment lossand expected loss caused by maintenance outage, the change of initiative loadcurtailment and the increments of network losses in curtailment loss, and the influenceon the reliability and economy of the whole system due to the maintenance of one orsome equipment are well considered. The model proposed above is favorable for powergrid enterprises to furthest reduce the operation cost under the premise of guarantee ofpower system security so as to achieve the overall balance of system reliability andeconomy.
④The operation risk related to electricity price. Electricity price is an importantfactor in evaluating the change of power grid assets. Operation risk factor is introducedinto electric price management in order to make up for the deficiency of traditional electric price management method of power grid enterprises. It is pointed out thatcorrecting spot price cannot use the results of traditional reliability assessment but theevaluation value of short-term operation risk. Firstly, a peak valley electricity pricemodel with operation risk is taken into consideration.Then a new strategy of electricprice management considering short-term operation risk of power system is proposed. Itis based on the operation risk level during various periods to adjust the price. When theoperation risk level is high, reducing risk can be achieved by raising prices to impel thepower consumers to reduce the electricity consumption or adjusting the time of powerconsuming. When the operation risk level is low, the system stability can be guaranteedby lowering the price to motivate the increment of power consuming at an acceptablerisk level.
⑤The life cycle asset management practice based on power asset model.According to the established asset life cycle cost model and decision-making theory, thelife cycle asset management practice is carried out in Guangdong power gridcorporation and the four-factors management model based on LCC model is proposed,including the total life cycle of assets, service reliability, efficiency and service life.Finally, in accordance with the four key factors the serial examination index isestablished and the management guarante system is constructed.
本文以电网企业资产管理为对象，分别针对电网企业资产管理中的全寿命周期费用模型、设备购置决策方法、电网企业设备维修决策模型以及资产风险与电价的关联关系进行了研究，并在理论研究基础上开展了电网公司资产全寿命周期管理实践。论文主要内容包括：
①电网企业资产全寿命周期费用模型。本文从电力设备整个寿命周期为出发点，对电力设备的费用模型进行了研究。根据电网企业的信息不完整特点将灰色系统理论引入电力设备的全寿命周期费用建模方法中，建立了电力设备的全寿命周期费用模型；在该模型中将费用分为一次性投资费用和运行维护费用两大类，着重研究了运行维护费用的计算方法，通过将灰色关联加权组合应用到运行维护费用统计数据分析中，并根据最大灰色关联度理论，确定了运行维护费用最佳拟合函数，从而解决了电网企业设备资产的全寿命周期费用的定量计算问题。论文算例验证了所建模型的适用性。
②基于费用-效能分析的电力设备购置决策。电网的快速发展导致电力资产快速增加，在电力设备采购决策方面存在重性能轻费用或重费用轻性能的决策摇摆问题。为解决这一问题，在分析影响电力设备费效性能主要因素的基础之上，建立了电力设备费效模糊综合评判法。用该方法对参与投标的设备进行综合费效评估排序，可为设备招标采购工作提供客观参考，减少评标过程中的不确定因素，在电力设备购置决策中具有很好的应用价值。
③电力企业资产管理的维修决策模型。电力设备维修管理耗费大量人力物力，是电网企业资产管理的另一重要工作，其管理难点在于难以建立同时考虑可靠性和经济性的模型。本文从系统整体效益出发建立了电网企业资产管理中所需的设备维修决策模型，考虑了由于维修停运引起的可靠性损失。在负荷削减损失中计及了主动削减负荷量和网损增量的变化，很好的计及了由于系统中设备维修对于整个系统可靠性和经济性的影响。所提模型有利于电网企业在保障电网安全的前提下最大限度地降低维修成本，从而达到系统整体可靠性和经济性的综合平衡。
④电力资产运行风险在电价上的反映。随着新能源接入和智能电网建设的发展，电力市场将快速发展。为弥补电网企业传统电价管理方法的不足，研究了电网资产运行过程中与电价的关联关系。首先建立了计及电网运行风险的峰谷电价模型，进一步提出了一种计及电力系统短期运行风险的实时电价管理新策略。该方法根据系统各个时段内的运行风险水平来调整电价，当系统运行风险水平较高时，升高价格促使电力用户减少用电量或调整用电时间，从而降低运行风险；当运行风险较低时，在可接受的风险水平内降低价格刺激用户增加用电量，以保证系统运行的稳定性。
⑤基于资产模型的全寿命周期管理实践。根据建立的资产全寿命周期费用模型及决策理论，在广东电网公司开展了资产全寿命周期管理实践，提出了基于电网资产全寿命周期管理的四因素管理模型，包含了资产的全寿命周期费用、使用的可靠性、效率、使用寿命四大关键要素，并根据这四大关键要素建立了系列考核指标，构建了管理保障体系。
As increasing complicated management environment of power grid enterprises dueto the deepening of the smart grid, power grid enterprises have never been faced withdouble pressure from ensuring power supply service quality and optimizing investmentand cost expense as today. Carrying out asset management efficiently will undoubtedlybe an inevitable choice for international power grid enterprises to cope with suchdilemma. For a long time, an outstanding characteristic of power grid enterprises isasset-intensive. The key problems of improving the business performance of power gridenterprises are how to operate the increasing huge assets efficiently and achieve optimalmanagement of power grid assets. After a long time global study, power grid assetshave the characteristics of regional decentralization, rapid development, large amount ofnew access and frequency changes, etc. Compared with telecom company, petroleumenterprise, even generation enterprises and other asset-intensive enterprises, the assetmanagement of power grid enterprises is more complicated and difficult, whichdetermines that successful cases of other industries cannot be imitated simply.
By taking the cost model of asset management of power grid enterprises as theresearch object, the life cycle cost model, equipment maintenance decision model ofpower grid enterprises and strategies of electric price management considering risk arerespectively studied in this paper.
①The life cycle cost model of power equipment. Power equipments are the mainassets of power grid enterprises and their assets values at different stages during thewhole life cycle are different. Based on the life cycle cost of power equipments, the costmodel is studied by introducing grey system theory into the analysis of its whole lifecycle cost and establishing the whole life cycle model in this paper. Cost in the model isdivided into one-off investment cost and operation and maintenance cost, and thecalculation methods of operation and maintenance costs are emphatically studied. Thispaper proposes the application of using the synthesizing grey relational degree as theweights to calculate the operation and maintenance cost for the prediction grey areacaused by different periods of failure time. Then the calculation model can be achievedaccording to the maximum grey relational degree theory to confirm the best-fitdistribution of operation and maintenance cost.
Taking the minimum whole life cycle cost as object and combine with thecalculation method of one-off investment cost based on time-proportion, the life cyclecost model of power equipment is established by integration of the two parts of cost.The calculation example in this paper carries out the decision analysis of whetheradopting conventional protection system or integrated automation system in substationwith above methods, calculates the LCC value, quantitatively indicates the applicabilityof grey system theory in the analysis and evaluation of LCC and obtains the judgmentsof integrated automation system according with the results of conventional method.
②The power equipment bidding and purchasing decision based on cost-benefitanalyzing. Decision problems of electric power equipment purchasing in the assetsmanagement of power grid enterprises are studied. On the basis of analyzing the mainfactors influencing the cost-benefit performance of power equipment, the cost-benefitfuzzy synthetic assessment method is established. That the integrative cost-benefitevaluation ordering for the equipments participated in tender bidding is realized withthe method, can provide objective reference for equipment public bidding andpurchasing, reduce the uncertain factors in the bidding appraisal process as well asshows the potential application value of the method in power equipment purchasedecision.
③The maintenance decision model of power assets management. Powerequipment maintenance management is another important job in assets management andthe difficult point is to establish the model simultaneously considering reliability andeconomy. Based on the integral benefits of power system, equipment maintenancedecision model needed in the assets management of power grid enterprises isestablished in this paper. The model has considered the increments of curtailment lossand expected loss caused by maintenance outage, the change of initiative loadcurtailment and the increments of network losses in curtailment loss, and the influenceon the reliability and economy of the whole system due to the maintenance of one orsome equipment are well considered. The model proposed above is favorable for powergrid enterprises to furthest reduce the operation cost under the premise of guarantee ofpower system security so as to achieve the overall balance of system reliability andeconomy.
④The operation risk related to electricity price. Electricity price is an importantfactor in evaluating the change of power grid assets. Operation risk factor is introducedinto electric price management in order to make up for the deficiency of traditional electric price management method of power grid enterprises. It is pointed out thatcorrecting spot price cannot use the results of traditional reliability assessment but theevaluation value of short-term operation risk. Firstly, a peak valley electricity pricemodel with operation risk is taken into consideration.Then a new strategy of electricprice management considering short-term operation risk of power system is proposed. Itis based on the operation risk level during various periods to adjust the price. When theoperation risk level is high, reducing risk can be achieved by raising prices to impel thepower consumers to reduce the electricity consumption or adjusting the time of powerconsuming. When the operation risk level is low, the system stability can be guaranteedby lowering the price to motivate the increment of power consuming at an acceptablerisk level.
⑤The life cycle asset management practice based on power asset model.According to the established asset life cycle cost model and decision-making theory, thelife cycle asset management practice is carried out in Guangdong power gridcorporation and the four-factors management model based on LCC model is proposed,including the total life cycle of assets, service reliability, efficiency and service life.Finally, in accordance with the four key factors the serial examination index isestablished and the management guarante system is constructed.
引文
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