基于情景分析与CBR的非常规突发事件应急决策关键技术研究
|
摘要
非常规突发事件具有明显的罕见性和不可预测性，高度的衍生性和连锁动态性，典型的灾难性与不可控制性，以及严重的社会恐慌和危机性等“非常规”特征，给政府应急决策与管理工作带来了很大的困难，无法基于现有的知识和以往的经验进行预测和超前准备，传统的“预测-应对”型危机管理模式已不能很好地适应非常规突发事件应急管理的需求。本文在非常规突发事件系统特征与应急决策机理分析的基础上，将情景分析法与案例推理技术相结合，研究了“情景-应对”型非常规突发事件应急决策的关键技术。主要研究内容与成果如下：
首先，对非常规突发事件进行界定与特征分析，构建基于熵原理与耗散结构理论的非常规突发事件系统动力学模型，分析事件发生与应急管理过程中的熵态变化情况；进而分析非常规突发事件应急决策的时态框架与机理。并以2010年中国大连输油管道爆炸事件为例，对具体的原则性、原理性、流程性和操作性机理进行分析与阐述。研究表明：非常规突发事件是由增熵因素ZS、负熵因素FS和系统承载能力C三者共同作用组成的动态系统；非常规突发事件的预警与应急管理必须强化负熵因子、控制增熵因子，使系统形成一个良好的耗散结构，尽量处于有序平衡区域和理想稳定区域。
其次，根据建立的非常规突发事件系统熵态的动力学方程，推导出事故灾难型非常规突发事件的燕尾突变模型；以燕尾突变的分歧点集和三维平衡曲面图分析事件的发生与控制机理，以及熵态突变过程中的突跳性、滞后性、多模态、多径性等现象，表明突变理论能够很好地解释非常规突发事件的发生与控制机理；进而提出基于三角形模糊数理论的非常规突发事件的突变评价预警模型。以某油库的评价预警为例，对该方法进行验证，预警结果与该油库实际情况基本一致，并且对不同类型决策者（λ，a取不同值时）的预警结果进行稳定性分析，证明该方法具有较好的合理性和科学性。
第三，通过非常规突发事件情景的界定和演变规律分析，确定情景分析的主要内容为情景知识表示、情景网络构建和情景推演；基于PSR模型研究了非常规突发事件的“压力-状态-响应”情景知识表示结构；基于贝叶斯网络和D-S证据合成理论构建了非常规突发事件情景分析网络与推演模型。以采掘工作面发生的重大和特别重大煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故为例，对该情景分析与推演模型进行验证，可为事故的应急决策与救援提供了更加充分的信息依据，推演结果与现实情况一致性较好。该方法能够对事件演变过程中的情景知识进行全面表示，实现了定性与定量相结合的情景推演过程。
第四，研究基于情景检索的非常规突发事件案例推理应急决策方法，通过计算情景推演案例输出结果与具体实例间的相似度，对改进的情景检索算法进行验证。结果表明：引入结构相似度计算和基于云模型的启发式权重获取算法来改进传统的最近相邻检索算法，能够有效地提高情景检索的准确性。然后，将情景分析和案例推理相结合，基于MAS理论构建了非常规突发事件智能决策平台框架，对各Agent部件的功能结构与协作运行机制进行设计，为“情景-应对”型非常规突发事件应急决策模式的实现提供了依据。
以上研究成果丰富和扩展了非常规突发事件发生机理与预警方法的研究，促进了突发事件情景推演技术的发展，有利于“情景-应对”型非常规突发事件应急决策模式的实现，对非常规突发事件防治具有较大的参考价值和现实意义。
Unconventional emergencies show the unconventionality, with obvious infrequence and inscrutability, highly derivative and concatenate dynamic, typical catastrophic consequences and cannot be controlled, inducing serious social panic and crisis. Unconventional emergencies cannot be predicted in advance based on knowledge and experience in past so that a great deal of difficulties were brought to the government’s emergency decision-making and management, and the traditional management pattern of‘predict-pesponse’can not meet the demand of unconventional emergency management any more. On the basis of analyzing the system structure and mechanism of emergency decision-making for unconventional emergencies, the key technologies of‘scenario-response’emergency decision-making were researched based on scenario analysis method and case-based reasoning in this paper. Main contents were as follows.
①On the basis of analyzing the definition and characters of unconventional emergencies, the system dynamic model was established based on entropy and dissipative structure theory, and the entropy changes were analyzed in the process of unconventional emergencies’occurrence, development, evolution, and emergency management. Then the system structure, temporal framework and mechanism of emergency decision-making were analysed on view of mechanism methodology. Dalian oil pipeline explosion accident in 2010 was taken as an example, the content and features of principle, theory, process and operation mechanism were described. The research show unconventional emergency was a dynamic system which was consisted of increasing entropy factors ZS, decreasing entropy factors FS and the system capacity C the early warning and emergency management of unconventional emergencies had to intensify decreasing entropy factors, control increasing entropy factors to form a good dissipative structures, and make the system be located in the orderly balanced and ideal stable area as soon as possible.
②According to the established system dynamic model of entropy for unconventional emergencies, the standard swallowtail catastrophe model of unconventional emergencies was obtained. Unconventional emergencies’occurrence mechanism and the phenomena of catastrophe, hysteresis, multi-mode, multi-path in the process of unconventional emergencies’occurrence and management were analyzed by showing swallowtail catastrophe bifurcation set and three-dimensional equilibrium surface chart, and that research show catastrophe theory could explain well the occurrence and control mechanism of unconventional emergencies. Then the catastrophe early warning model was proposed based on triangular fuzzy number theory. The verification of early warning method was implemented on specific example, and the results were consistent with the actual situation of the oil depot. The results of early warning was proved better solidity and the method was shown better reasonable and feasible by analyzing different decision makers’evaluation results (λ, a with different values).
③On the basis of defining the‘scenario’and analyzing the scenario evolution of unconventional emergencies, the critical works of unconventional emergencies’scenario analysis were definited as representing scenario knowledge, constructing scenario network, and deducting the scenarios. The‘Pressure-State-Response’representation structure of scenario knowledge for unconventional emergencies was set up based on PSR model, then the scenario analysis network and deduction model was established based on Bayesian networks theory and the combination rule of D-S evidence theory. The major coal mine gas explosion which happened on mining heading face was taken as an example to verify the scenario analysis and deducting model. The results were consistent with the reality and could provide more information for emergency decision-making and rescue. This method could represent completely the scenario knowledge in the process of scenario evolution, and the qualitative and quantitative scenarios deduction process was achieved.
④The case-based reasoning emergency decision-making method of unconventional emergencies based on scenario retrieval was researched, and the improved scenario retrieval algorithm was verified by calculating the similarity between the output of scenario deducting case and specific examples. The research show that the improved K-nearest neighbor approach could improve the effectiveness and accuracy of scenario retrieval by introducing the calculation method of structural similarity as well as the heuristic weights algorithm based on cloud model. By combining scenario analysis method and case-based reasoning, a‘scenarios-response’intelligent decision-making platform framework was constructed based on multi-agent system, then the main agents’functional structure and operating mechanism were designed. The study provided a basis to realize‘scenarios-response’intelligent decision mode of unconventional emergencies.
The research were enriched and expanded on occurrence mechanism and early warning method for unconventional emergencies, and the techniques of emergency scenario deduction were developed. It promoted to achieve‘scenario-response’emergency decision-making mode of unconventional emergencies, with great reference value and practical significance to prevent and control unconventional emergencies.
首先，对非常规突发事件进行界定与特征分析，构建基于熵原理与耗散结构理论的非常规突发事件系统动力学模型，分析事件发生与应急管理过程中的熵态变化情况；进而分析非常规突发事件应急决策的时态框架与机理。并以2010年中国大连输油管道爆炸事件为例，对具体的原则性、原理性、流程性和操作性机理进行分析与阐述。研究表明：非常规突发事件是由增熵因素ZS、负熵因素FS和系统承载能力C三者共同作用组成的动态系统；非常规突发事件的预警与应急管理必须强化负熵因子、控制增熵因子，使系统形成一个良好的耗散结构，尽量处于有序平衡区域和理想稳定区域。
其次，根据建立的非常规突发事件系统熵态的动力学方程，推导出事故灾难型非常规突发事件的燕尾突变模型；以燕尾突变的分歧点集和三维平衡曲面图分析事件的发生与控制机理，以及熵态突变过程中的突跳性、滞后性、多模态、多径性等现象，表明突变理论能够很好地解释非常规突发事件的发生与控制机理；进而提出基于三角形模糊数理论的非常规突发事件的突变评价预警模型。以某油库的评价预警为例，对该方法进行验证，预警结果与该油库实际情况基本一致，并且对不同类型决策者（λ，a取不同值时）的预警结果进行稳定性分析，证明该方法具有较好的合理性和科学性。
第三，通过非常规突发事件情景的界定和演变规律分析，确定情景分析的主要内容为情景知识表示、情景网络构建和情景推演；基于PSR模型研究了非常规突发事件的“压力-状态-响应”情景知识表示结构；基于贝叶斯网络和D-S证据合成理论构建了非常规突发事件情景分析网络与推演模型。以采掘工作面发生的重大和特别重大煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故为例，对该情景分析与推演模型进行验证，可为事故的应急决策与救援提供了更加充分的信息依据，推演结果与现实情况一致性较好。该方法能够对事件演变过程中的情景知识进行全面表示，实现了定性与定量相结合的情景推演过程。
第四，研究基于情景检索的非常规突发事件案例推理应急决策方法，通过计算情景推演案例输出结果与具体实例间的相似度，对改进的情景检索算法进行验证。结果表明：引入结构相似度计算和基于云模型的启发式权重获取算法来改进传统的最近相邻检索算法，能够有效地提高情景检索的准确性。然后，将情景分析和案例推理相结合，基于MAS理论构建了非常规突发事件智能决策平台框架，对各Agent部件的功能结构与协作运行机制进行设计，为“情景-应对”型非常规突发事件应急决策模式的实现提供了依据。
以上研究成果丰富和扩展了非常规突发事件发生机理与预警方法的研究，促进了突发事件情景推演技术的发展，有利于“情景-应对”型非常规突发事件应急决策模式的实现，对非常规突发事件防治具有较大的参考价值和现实意义。
Unconventional emergencies show the unconventionality, with obvious infrequence and inscrutability, highly derivative and concatenate dynamic, typical catastrophic consequences and cannot be controlled, inducing serious social panic and crisis. Unconventional emergencies cannot be predicted in advance based on knowledge and experience in past so that a great deal of difficulties were brought to the government’s emergency decision-making and management, and the traditional management pattern of‘predict-pesponse’can not meet the demand of unconventional emergency management any more. On the basis of analyzing the system structure and mechanism of emergency decision-making for unconventional emergencies, the key technologies of‘scenario-response’emergency decision-making were researched based on scenario analysis method and case-based reasoning in this paper. Main contents were as follows.
①On the basis of analyzing the definition and characters of unconventional emergencies, the system dynamic model was established based on entropy and dissipative structure theory, and the entropy changes were analyzed in the process of unconventional emergencies’occurrence, development, evolution, and emergency management. Then the system structure, temporal framework and mechanism of emergency decision-making were analysed on view of mechanism methodology. Dalian oil pipeline explosion accident in 2010 was taken as an example, the content and features of principle, theory, process and operation mechanism were described. The research show unconventional emergency was a dynamic system which was consisted of increasing entropy factors ZS, decreasing entropy factors FS and the system capacity C the early warning and emergency management of unconventional emergencies had to intensify decreasing entropy factors, control increasing entropy factors to form a good dissipative structures, and make the system be located in the orderly balanced and ideal stable area as soon as possible.
②According to the established system dynamic model of entropy for unconventional emergencies, the standard swallowtail catastrophe model of unconventional emergencies was obtained. Unconventional emergencies’occurrence mechanism and the phenomena of catastrophe, hysteresis, multi-mode, multi-path in the process of unconventional emergencies’occurrence and management were analyzed by showing swallowtail catastrophe bifurcation set and three-dimensional equilibrium surface chart, and that research show catastrophe theory could explain well the occurrence and control mechanism of unconventional emergencies. Then the catastrophe early warning model was proposed based on triangular fuzzy number theory. The verification of early warning method was implemented on specific example, and the results were consistent with the actual situation of the oil depot. The results of early warning was proved better solidity and the method was shown better reasonable and feasible by analyzing different decision makers’evaluation results (λ, a with different values).
③On the basis of defining the‘scenario’and analyzing the scenario evolution of unconventional emergencies, the critical works of unconventional emergencies’scenario analysis were definited as representing scenario knowledge, constructing scenario network, and deducting the scenarios. The‘Pressure-State-Response’representation structure of scenario knowledge for unconventional emergencies was set up based on PSR model, then the scenario analysis network and deduction model was established based on Bayesian networks theory and the combination rule of D-S evidence theory. The major coal mine gas explosion which happened on mining heading face was taken as an example to verify the scenario analysis and deducting model. The results were consistent with the reality and could provide more information for emergency decision-making and rescue. This method could represent completely the scenario knowledge in the process of scenario evolution, and the qualitative and quantitative scenarios deduction process was achieved.
④The case-based reasoning emergency decision-making method of unconventional emergencies based on scenario retrieval was researched, and the improved scenario retrieval algorithm was verified by calculating the similarity between the output of scenario deducting case and specific examples. The research show that the improved K-nearest neighbor approach could improve the effectiveness and accuracy of scenario retrieval by introducing the calculation method of structural similarity as well as the heuristic weights algorithm based on cloud model. By combining scenario analysis method and case-based reasoning, a‘scenarios-response’intelligent decision-making platform framework was constructed based on multi-agent system, then the main agents’functional structure and operating mechanism were designed. The study provided a basis to realize‘scenarios-response’intelligent decision mode of unconventional emergencies.
The research were enriched and expanded on occurrence mechanism and early warning method for unconventional emergencies, and the techniques of emergency scenario deduction were developed. It promoted to achieve‘scenario-response’emergency decision-making mode of unconventional emergencies, with great reference value and practical significance to prevent and control unconventional emergencies.
引文
[1]韩智勇,翁文国,张维等.重大研究计划“非常规突发事件应急管理研究”的科学背景、目标与组织管理[J].中国科学基金,2009,23(4):215-220.
[2] C.F.Hermann, International Crises: Insights from Behavioral Research [M].New York, FrePress, 1972.
[3] U.Rosenthal, T.Michael, Charles, P.T.Hart. Coping with Crises: The Mana-gement of Disasters, Riots and Terrorism, Springfield, III [M].Charles C.Thomas Publisher Ltd., 1989.
[4] D.A.Fishman, V.Flight. Crisis Communication Theory Blended and Extended [J]. Communication Puarterly, 1999.
[5] I.Mitroff, Managing Crises Before Happen[M]. New York: American Management Association, 2001.
[6] (美)劳伦斯巴顿(Laurence Barton)著,符彩霞译.组织危机管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2002.
[7] T.Robert. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, as amended by Public Law 106-390, 2000,10(30).
[8]郭济,政府应急管理实务[M].北京:中共中央党校出版社,2004.
[9]杨丽英,李红娟,张永奎.突发事件新闻语料分类体系研究[A].中国中文信息学会二十五周年学术会议[C],2006:403-409.
[10]薛澜,钟开斌.突发公共事件分类、分级与分期:应急体制的管理基础[J].中国行政管理,2005,(2):102-106.
[11] K.F.Cheung, A.C.Phadke, Y.Weietal. Modeling of Storm-induced Coastal Flooding for Emergency Management[J]. Ocean Engineering,2003,30(11):1353-1386.
[12] A.Heiko, A.H.Thieken, M.Bruno etal. A Probabilistic Model System Assessing Flood Risks[J].Natural Hazards,2006,38(2):79-100.
[13] L.C.David, A System Dynamics Analysis of the Westray Mine Disaster [J]. System Dynamic Review,2003,19(2):139-166.
[14]魏一鸣,张林朋,范英.基于Swarm的洪水灾害演化模拟研究[J].管理科学学报,2002,5(6):39-46.
[15]孙康,廖琳武.群体性突发事件的演化博弈分析-以辽东湾海哲捕捞为例[J].系统工程,2006,24(11):59-62.
[16]吴国斌,佘廉.突发事件演化模型与应急决策-相关领域研究评述[J].中国管理科学.2006,(14):827-830.
[17]范珉,苏巨诗,王建军.我国公共场所突发事件演化机理实证分析[J].中国安全生产科学术,2009,04:85-90.
[18]文传甲.论大气灾害链[J].灾害学,1994,9(5):1-6.
[19]文传甲.广义灾害、灾害链及其防治探讨[J].灾害学,2000,15(4):13-18.
[20]王建伟,荣莉莉.突发事件的连锁反应网络模型研究[J].计算机应用研究, 2008,25(11):3288-3291.
[21]裘江南,师花艳,叶鑫等.基于事件的定性知识表示模型研究[J].系统工程, 2009,27(10):1-8.
[22]裘江南,董磊磊,叶鑫等.突发事件耦合度模型研究[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:6-9.
[23]计雷,池宏,陈安等.突发事件应急管理[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2006.
[24]杨静,陈建明,赵红.应急管理中的突发事件分类分级研究[J].管理评论,2005,04:37-41.
[25]季学伟,翁文国等.突发公共事件预警分级模型[J].清华大学学报.2008,08(48): 1252-1255.
[26]李湖生,刘铁民.突发事件应急准备体系研究进展及关键科学问题[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2009,5(6):5-10.
[27] L.Jenkins. Selecting Scenarios for Environmental Disaster Planning [J]. European Journal of Operational Researeh, 2000,121(2):275-286.
[28] L.Jenkins. Determining the Most Informative Scenarios of Environment Impact from Potential Major Accidents[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,1999,55:15-25.
[29]吴宗之,刘茂.重大事故应急救援系统与预案导论[M].北京:冶金工业出版社.2003.
[30]刘功智,刘铁民.重大事故应急预案编制指南[J].劳动保护,2004,4:11-18.
[31]黄建群.浅析应急救援预案存在的问题及改进措施[J].探索与实践,2006,2:9-11.
[32]滕五晓.城市灾害应急预案基本要素探讨[J].城市综合减灾.2006,13(1):11-17.
[33]刘畅,谢红薇等.基于语义Web服务的数字化应急预案检索系统框架[J].电脑开发与应用,2010,1(23):4-7.
[34]范维澄.突发公共事件应急信息系统总体方案构思[J].信息化建设,2005,9:11-14.
[35]范维澄.国家突发公共事件应急管理中科学问题的思考和建议[J].中国科学基金,2007,2:71-76.
[36]刘士兴,张永明,袁非牛等.城市公共安全应急决策支持系统研究[J].安全与环境学报,2007,7(2):140-143.
[37]李红霞,袁晓芳,田水承,王莉.基于义类词典的煤矿瓦斯爆炸案例推理系统研究[A].中国职业安全健康年会[C],2008,12: 112-115.
[38] Yuan Xiaofang, Li Hongxia, Tian Shuicheng.Wang Li.Research on CBR System of Major Emergency Based on Cloud Model and Semantic Class Dictionary[A]. International Symposium on Emergency Management 2009 (ISEM^09)[C],2009,12: 665-670.
[39]魏伟.基于突变论的智能建筑中突发事件处理的决策支持与虚拟仿真[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2009.
[40] C.Barbarosoglua, L.Ozdamarb, A.Cevikb. An Interactive Approach for Hierarchical Analysis of Helieopter Logistics in Disaster Relief Operations[J]. European Journal of Operational Researeh,2004(140):118-133.
[41] C.S.Revelle, H.A.Eiseltl. Location analysis: A synthesis and survey[J]. European Journa1 of operational Researeh,2005,165(l):l-19.
[42]计国君,朱彩虹.突发事件应急物流中资源配送优化问题研究[J].中国流通经济, 2007,(3):18-21.
[43]王苏生,王岩.基于公平优先原则的多受灾点应急资源配置算法[J].运筹与管理,2008,17(3):16-21.
[44]杨琴,赵茜,曹策俊.突发事件后瓶颈资源的在线调度[J].铁道运输与经济,2010,32(8):81-85.
[45]杨琴,周国华,林晶晶,赵茜.应急事件中瓶颈环节的实时优化调度[J].系统工程,2010,28(7):74-77.
[46]陈雷雷,王海燕.大规模突发事件中基于满意度的应急物资优化调度模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(5):46-52 .
[47]杨文国,黄钧,郭田德.大规模突发事件中伤员救助的救护车分配优化模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(7):1218-1233.
[48]孔祥荣,韩伯棠.基于合作博弈的运输分配方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(7):1340-1344.
[49] F.R.B.Cruz, J.M.G.Smith, R.Medeiros. An M/G/C/C State-dependent Network Simulation Model. Computers and Operations Researeh[J].2005, 32(4):919-941.
[50]时勘.基于非常规突发事件应对的心理学研究成果[M].灾难心理学.2008.
[51]陈雪峰,王日出,刘正奎.灾后心理援助的组织与实施[J].心理科学进展, 2009,17(3):499-504.
[52]宋旭红,尚志荣,李涛,赵瑾,李大雨.重大灾害后受灾人群ABC干预的研究[J].临床医药实践,2010,19(21):135-136.
[53]沈荣华.国外防灾救灾应急管理体制[M].北京:中国社会出版社,2008.
[54]李仕明,刘娟娟,王博等.基于情景的非常规突发事件应急管理研究——“2009突发事件应急管理论坛”综述[J].电子科技大学学报(社科版),2010,12(1):1-3.
[55]赵云锋.非常规突发事件的应急管理研究[D].复旦大学.2009.
[56]姜卉,黄钧.罕见重大突发事件应急实时决策中的情景演变[J].华中科技大学学报,2009, 23(1):104-108.
[57]杨文国,贾屹峰,黄钧.非常规突发事件应急决策中的情景分析方法和决策准则研究[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:421-424.
[58]肖磊,李仕明,李晓林.非常规突发事件管理中的“情景学习”初探[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:407-410.
[59]曹学艳,刘娟娟,孙巧利.基于情景演变的非常规突发事件的态势评估研究[A].第五届全国“应急管理——理论与实践”研讨会在济南[C],2010,4:19-23.
[60]刘霞.非常规突发事件动态应急群决策“情景-权变”范式[J].云南社会科学,2010,(5):21-25.
[61]王旭坪,李小龙,郭武斌.基于情景分析的应急路径选择研究[A].第五届全国“应急管理——理论与实践”研讨会[C],2010,4:1-5.
[62]刘樑,刘力玮,姜科.基于情景表现的非常规突发事件处置全过程研究[A].第五届全国“应急管理——理论与实践”研讨会在济南[C],2010,4:50-54.
[63]王博,刘立玮,刘樑.基于情景演变的非常规突发事件应急方案的优化调整[A].第五届全国“应急管理——理论与实践”研讨会[C],2010,4:77-81.
[64]何婧,刘娟娟,胡娉.非常规突发事件进程演化模型的构建[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:59-62.
[65]曹学艳,韦永智,赵鹏飞等.非常规突发事件演化机理研究[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:68-70.
[66]韩传峰,王兴广等.非常规突发事件应急决策系统动态作用机理[J].软科学.2009,8(23):50-53.
[67]晏湘涛,曾华锋等.非常规突发事件中军民一体的指挥体系研究[J].国防科学.2009, 2(30):52-56.
[68]马庆国,王小毅.非常规突发事件中影响当事人状态的要素分析与数理描述[J].管理工程学报.2009,03(23):126-130.
[69]林鸿潮,詹承豫.非常规突发事件应对与应急法的重构[J].中国行政管理.2009,(7):61-65.
[70]杨继君,吴启迪等.面向非常规突发事件的应急资源合作博弈调度[J].系统工程.2008, 9(26):21-25.
[71]杨继君,吴启迪,程艳.面向非常规突发事件的应对方案序贯决策[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2010,38(4):619-624.
[72]韦永智,翁志林,肖延高.非常规突发事件处置过程中的态势研究[A].第五届全国“应急管理——理论与实践”研讨会[C],2010,4:115-120.
[73]王晶,朱建明,唐凤,黄钧.非常规突发事件资源布局中协调性分析与对策研究[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:531-534.
[74]唐凤,朱建明,王晶,黄钧.非常规突发事件应急物资需求分析研究[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:549-553.
[75]杨乙丹.非常规突发事件的应急资源合作博弈储备研究[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:554-558.
[76]王旭坪,李小龙,梁阿密,基于SOA非常规突发事件资源协调决策系统研究[J].情报杂志,2010,29(6):164-169.
[77]赵惠良,刘建平,刘向东.城市交通非常规突发事件的应急资源调度最优路径研究[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2010,12(6):65-68.
[78]王晓,庄亚明.基于案例推理的非常规突发事件资源需求预测[J].西安电子科技大学学报(社会科学版),2010,20(4):22-26.
[79]赵剑波,刘雯雯.非常规突发事件的传播方式与应急决策[J].改革,2009,(11):155-160.
[80]康青春,郑儒欣.非常规突发事件现场应急指挥平台设计与实现[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(3):161-165.
[81]张成福,杨兴坤.非常规突发事件应急管理经验与教训——以H1N1甲型流感为例[J].公共论坛,2010,(4):42-44.
[82]戚建刚.非常规突发事件与我国行政应急管理体制之创新[J].华东政法大学学报, 2010,(5):105-109.
[83]刘娟娟,李仕明.非常规突发事件应急准备体系的构成及运作机理研究[J].现代物业, 2010,9(6):24-26.
[84]张一文,齐佳音,方滨兴,李欲晓.非常规突发事件中网络舆情作用机制初探[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:38-43.
[85]张一文,齐佳音,马君,方滨兴.网络舆情与非常规突发事件作用机制——基于系统动力学建模分析[J].情报杂志, 2010,29(9):1-16.
[86]何婧,刘娟娟,胡娉.非常规突发事件中网络舆情作用机制初探[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:59-63.
[87]姜珊珊,李欲晓,徐敬宏.非常规突发事件网络舆情中的意见领袖分析[J].情报理论与实践,2010,33(12):101-104
[88]徐敬宏,李欲晓,方滨兴,刘颖.非常规突发事件中网络舆情的生成及管理[J].当代传播,2010,(4):41-43.
[89]徐敬宏,宫哲,李慧慧.非常规突发事件中网络舆情的作用分析——以“邓玉娇案”为例[J].学习与实践, 2010,(7):78-82.
[90]云健,刘勇奎,王春霞,何丽君.民族地区非常规突发事件的应急管理智能化[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:711-714.
[91]云健,刘勇奎,王德高.基于复杂系统的民族地区非常规突发事件应急管理研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(3):172-175.
[92]马荔,李欲晓.非常规突发事件中政府信息公开机制研究[J].生产力研究,2010,(06):5-8
[93] H.Kahn, A.Wiener.The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years [M].MacMillan:New York,1967.
[94] J.Gershuny. The Choice Of Scenarios[J].Futures,1976,8:496-508.
[95] M.E.Porter. Competitive Advantage[M].New York:Free Press,1982.
[96] D.M.Georgoff, R.G.Murdick. Manager's Guide To Forecasting [J].Harvard Business Review,1986.1(2):110-120.
[97] W.R.Huss, E.J.Honton. Scenario Planning: What Style Should You Use [J].Long Range Planning, 1987, 20 (4):21-29.
[98] S.P.Schnaars. How to Develop and Use Scenarios[J].Long Range Planning,1987, 20:105-114.
[99] Schoemaker, J.H.Paul. When and How to Use Scenario: A Heuristic Approach With Illustration[J].Journal of Forecasting,1991,10(06):549-564.
[100] N.Finlay Paul. Steps towards Scenario Planning[J].Engineering Management Journal, 1998,8(5):243-246.
[101] Ian Wilson. From Scenario Thinking to Strategic Action[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2000,65(1):23-29.
[102]麦茨林德格伦,汉斯班德霍尔德著,郭子英,郭金林译.情景规划:未来与战略之间的整合[M].北京:北京经济管理出版社,2003,25-39.
[103]宗蓓华,战略预测中的情景分析法[J].预测,1994,(2):50-55.
[104]刘铁民.情景依赖型非常规突发事件应急管理研究[A].第三届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2008,8:425-429.
[105]李仕明,刘樑,王博等.突发事件应急管理中的情景研究[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:425-429.
[106]孙斌.基于情景分析的战略风险管理研究[D].上海:上海交通大学,2009.
[107] Pierre Wack. Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids[J].Harvard Business Review,1985, 63(6): 139-150.
[108] K.Van Der Heijden. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation [M],Wiley, Chichester, 1996.
[109] Kerry Tucker.Scenario Planning[J].Association Management,1999,51(4):70-77.
[110]曾忠禄,张冬梅.不确定环境下解读未来的方法:情景分析法[J].情报方法,2005.5: 14-16.
[111]宋艳,银路等.动态战略规划的情景分析法及其给中国企业的思考[J].科技管理研究,2008.10:148-150.
[112] A.Lee Gilbert. Using Multiple Scenario Analysis to Map the Competitive Future scape: A Practice-based Perspective [J]. Competitive Intelligence Review,2000,11(2):145-167.
[113] A.Fink, O.Schlake. Scenario Management an Approach for Strategic Foresight [J]. Competitive Intelligence Review, 2000,11(1):34-59.
[114] J.Brauers, M.Weber. New Method of Scenario Analysis for Strategic Planning [J].Journal of Forcasting,1988,(7):31-47.
[115] P.J.H.Schoemaker. When and How to Use Scenario Planning:A Heuristic Approach with Illustration[J]. Journal of Forecasting,1991,10(6):549-564.
[116] R.P.Bood, TJBM Postma. Scenario Analysis as a Strategic Management Tool[M]. University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management),1998.
[117] D.David Oryang, Probabilistic Scenario Analysis (PSA)-A Methodology for Quantitative Risk Assessment[A].NAPPO PRA Symposium,2002,03.
[118] D.Mietzner, G.Reger. Advantages and Disadvantages of Scenario Approaches for Strategic Foresight. International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning 2005,1(2):220-239.
[119]金毓渝.情景分析方法中的交叉影响分析[J].上海海运学院学报,1993,(3):46-52.
[120]吉小东,汪寿阳等.一种基于聚类分析的多阶段情景生成方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006,(7):11-17.
[121]朱跃中.中国交通运输部门中长期能源发展与碳排放情景设计及其结果分析[J].中国能源,2001,(11):25-27.
[122]宁钟,王雅青.基于情景分析的供应链风险识别—某全球性公司案例分析[J].工业工程与管理,2007,(2):88-94.
[123]孙建军,柯青.不完全信息环境下的情报分析方法—情景分析法及其在情报研究中的应用[J].图书情报工作,2007,(2):63-66.
[124]王义成,丁志雄等.基于情景分析技术的太湖流域洪水风险动因与响应分析研究初探[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2009,(3):7-13.
[125]金瑞龄,袁辉.应急决策支持系统研究[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1990.
[126]袁辉.重大突发事件及其应急决策研究[J].研究与探索,1996(2):1-4.
[127]桂维民.应急决策论[M].北京:中共中央党校出版社,2007.
[128] L.Coyle, D.Doyle, P. Cunningham. Representing Similarity for CBR in XML[A]. Advances in Case-Based Reasoning (Proc of ECCBR-04) [C]. Madrid,Spain:Springer, 2004:119-127.
[129] S.Y.Yang, P.C.Liao, C.S.Ho. An Ontology-supported Case-based Technique for FAQ[A].Taipei,Taiwan: Proc 17th International Conference on Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering[C].2005:639-644.
[130]曾文,黄玉基.基于案例推理技术在刑法定罪量刑系统中的应用研究[J].广西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2003,21(1):73-78
[131]刘芳,姚莉等.基于语义Web的案例表示和CBR系统结构研究[J].计算机应用,2004,24(1):17-19
[132]周凯波,金斌等.基于XML的面向对象案例表示方法[J].武汉理工大学学报,2005,27(3):86-89.
[133]吴丽华,罗云锋等.基于XML的案例表示和自学习案例检索模型的研究[J].海南师范学院学报(自然科学版),2005,18(3):218-222.
[134]李玲娟,汤文宇,王汝传.基于XML的案例表示和案例库构造方法[J].计算机应用研究,2007,24(11):70-73.
[135]王悦,范君晖,田书格.基于案例推理专家系统中的案例表示方法上海工程技术大学学报,2005,19(1):42-46
[136]曹茂俊,尚福华,滕雪萍.基于描述逻辑的可扩展的案例表示及检索研究[J].科学技术与工程,2010,10(11):2777-2779.
[137]赵卫东,李旗号,盛昭翰.基于案例推理的决策问题求解研究[J].管理科学学报,2000,(4):29-36.
[138]黄继鸿,雷战波,李欣苗.基于遗传禁忌算法的案例检索策略[J].系统工程理论方法应用,2004,13(1):10-13.
[139]李伟明,杨旭,穆志纯.冷轧建模中基于粗糙集和神经网络的案例检索[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2005,24(5):709-712.
[140]孟妍妮,方宗德.一种基于ART-2神经网络的案例检索方法[J].情报学报,2006,25(4):428-432.
[141]李玉玲,陈志国.基于信息粒的信息系统设计案例推理[J].河南大学学报(自然科学版),2008.2(38):195-198.
[142]靖可,赵希男.基于整体优势度的应急救援案例推理决策[J].系统工程, 2008.9(26):15-20.
[143]王海棠,顾君忠,杨静等.基于本体的相似性计算实现高性能案例推理[J].计算机时代,2009,(1):58-60.
[144]闻敬谦,李青.基于本体的语义相似在维修案例推理中应用[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2009,35(2):223-226.
[145] J.M.Corchado, B.Lees. A Hybrid Case-Based Model for Forecasting[J].Applied Artificial Intelligence,2001,12(2):105-127.
[146]段军,戴居丰.案例修正方法研究[J].计算机工程,2006,32(6):1-3.
[147]李伟明,穆志纯.推理建模中基于KDD和粗糙集的案例修改[J].计算机仿真,2006,23(10):141-143.
[148] E.Plaza,E.Armengol,O.Santiago,The Explanatory Power of Symbolic Similarity in Case-based Reasoning[J].Artificial Intelligence Review,2005,24:145-161.
[149] C.Nugent, P.Cunningham. A Case-based Explanation System for Black Box Systems [J].Artificial Intelligence Review,2005(24):163-178.
[150] L.Benchaphon, Z.Yan. Web Service Composition with Case-based Reasoning [A]. Adelaide, Australia: Proceedings of Fourteenth Australasian Database Conference on Database Technologies[C].2003:201-208.
[151] J.D.Sarah, C.Pádraig, L.Coyle. An Assessment of Case-based Reasoning for Spam Filtering[J].Artificial Intelligence Review,2005,24:359-378.
[152] B.Isabelle.Case-based Reasoning in the Health Sciences[J].Artificial Intelligence in Medicine,2006,36(2):121-125.
[153] J.O.Kyong, Y.K.Tae. Financial Market Monitoring by Case-based Reasoning [J].Expert Systems with Applications, In Press, Corrected Proof, Available online,2006,2(20): 378-383.
[154] H.K.Kim, K.H.Im, S.C.Park. DSS for Computer Security Incident Response Applying CBR and Collaborative Response[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2010,37(1): 852-870.
[155] C.W.Koo, T.H.Hong, C.T.Hyun. The Development of a Construction Cost Prediction Model with Improved Prediction Capacity Using the Advanced CBR Approach [J].Expert Systems with Applications, 2011,38(7): 8597-8606.
[156]王君,潘星,李静,刘鲁.基于案例推理的知识管理咨询系统[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2006,46(s1):990-995.
[157]唐雪松,郭立红,陈长喜.基于案例推理方法在态势分析中的应用研究[J].计算机测量与控制,2006,14(12):1723-1725.
[158]赖院根,朱东华,郭颖.基于案例推理的企业专利战略制定研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2007,(8):132-135.
[159]高晓荣,徐英卓等.基于CBR的井下复杂情况与事故智能诊断和处理系统[J].计算机应用研究,2008,25(5):1446-1449.
[160]陈德华.基于案例推理的突发案件辅助决策系统研究[D].上海交通大学,2007,9.
[161]胡小鹏.基于案例推理的刑事案件审判决策支持系统[D].上海海事大学,2007,7.
[162] Wang Li, Tian Shuicheng, Yuan Xiaofang, Ma Xianmin, Research on Gas Explosion IDSS in Coalmines Based on CBR[A].International Conference on Advanced Computer Control[C], 2009:652-656.
[163]廖振良,刘宴辉,徐祖信.基于案例推理的突发性环境污染事件应急预案系统[J].环境污染与防治,2009,31(1):86-89.
[164]吕宗平,胡欣,杨宏宇.基于案例推理的机场应急预案管理[J].中国民航大学学报,2010,28(2):1-5.
[165]李蒙,刘保罗.基于案例推理的矿井通风机故障诊断设计[J].煤炭科学技术, 2010,38(5):97-99.
[166] Liu Li, Zhou Jianzhong, An Xueli etal. Corrigendum to‘Using Fuzzy Theory and Information Entropy for Water Quality Assessment in Three Gorges Region, China’[J] . Expert Systems with Applications,2010,37(3):2517-2521.
[167] K.Tomas, B.Mansson. Entropy and Economic Processes-Physics Perspectives[J]. Ecological Economics,2001,(36):165-179.
[168] V.Lavric, D.Baetens, J.D.Ruyck. Entropy Generation Reduction through Chemical Pinch Analysis. Case Study: Methanol Synthesis Heat Integrated Reactor[J]. Applied Thermal Engineering, 2003,(23):1837-1845.
[169] J.B.Brissaud.The Meaning of Entropy[J].Entropy,2005,7(1):68-96.
[170]王焘,田水承,景兴鹏.熵原理对事故预防的启示[J].陕西煤炭,2008,(4):24-26.
[171]陈伟坷,向兰兰.基于墒及耗散结构的公共安全突发事件的过程分析研究[J].中国软科学,2007,(10):149-154.
[172] J.Park, W.Jung, J.Ha. Development of the Step Complexity Measure for Emergency Operating Procedures Using Entropy Concepts[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2001,71(2):115-130.
[173]邱菀华.管理决策与应用熵学[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2002.
[174]亓菁晶,陈安.突发事件与应急管理的机理体系[J].中国科学院院刊.2009,24(5): 496-503.
[175]王莉.基于三类危险源划分的煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故机理与预警研究[D].西安:西安科技大学,2010.
[176]吴国斌.突发公共事件扩散机理研究――以三峡坝区为例[D].武汉:武汉理工大学, 2006.
[177]侯宏涛.大连输油管爆炸事件[DB/OL].http://baike.baidu.com/view/3966500.htm, 2010-12-24/2011-01-26.
[178]范珉,刘晓君.基于突变理论的公共场所集群事件预警分级[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(2):171-176.
[179] Wang Wenjun, Liu Suling, Zhang Shushen, Chen Jingwen. Assessment of a model of pollution disaster in near-shore coastal waters based on catastrophe theory [J]. Ecological Modelling, 2011,222(2):307-312.
[180]林大建,周永安,蔡嗣经.基于蝴蝶型突变理论的安全生产保障系统分析和探讨[ J].中国安全科学学报,2007,(10), 28-31.
[181]史志富,张安,刘海燕等.基于突变理论与模糊集的复杂系统多准则决策[J].系统工程与电子技术,2006,28(7):1010-1013.
[182]魏雪莲.害虫种群动态模型的燕尾突变分析及系统分析[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2009.
[183]姜路,于连宇.初等突变理论在社会科学中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2002,(10):113-117.
[184]田水承.第三类危险源辨识与控制研究[D].北京:北京理工大学.2001.7
[185]田水承,李红霞,王莉等.从三类危险源看煤矿事故的频发[J].中国安全科学学报, 2007,17(1):10-15
[186]袁大祥,严四海.事故的突变论[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,13(3):5-7.
[187]董华,杨卫波.事故和灾害预测中的突变模型[J].地质灾害与环境保护, 2003,14(3):39-44.
[188]林大建,张旭阳.基于蝴蝶突变理论的企业安全生产保障系统危险程度四维分析模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,5(3):116-119.
[189]林大建.基于突变理论的企业安全生产危险程度动态评价研究[D].北京科技大学博士学位论文,2007,7.
[190]周绍江.突变理论在环境影响评价中的应用[J].人民长江,2003,34(2):52-54.
[191]史志富,张安,刘海燕,张圣云.基于突变理论与模糊集的复杂系统多准则决策[J].系统工程与电子技术,2006,28(7):1010-1013.
[192]朱丽丽.成品油库安全综合评价研究[D].北京:北京化工大学,2008,6.
[193] Chang Meishang, Teng Yaling, Chen Jingwen. A Scenario Planning Approach for theFlood Emergency Logistics Preparation Problem under Uncertainty[A]. Transportation Research PartE43[C].2007: 737-754.
[194] G.Barbarosogˇlu, Y.Arda. A Two-stage Stochastic Programming Framework for Transportation Planning in Disaster Response[J]. Journal of the Operational Research Society,2004,55:43-53.
[195] Ye Hua, Ma Yan, Dong Limin. Land Ecological Security Assessment for Bai Autonomous Prefecture of Dali Based Using PSR Model--with Data in 2009 as Case[J]. Energy Procedia,2011,5:2172-2177.
[196]孙兆林,杨宏文,胡卫东.基于贝叶斯网络的态势估计方法[J].计算机应用, 2005,25(4):745-747.
[197]裘江南,王延章,董磊磊等.基于贝叶斯网络的突发事件预测模型[J].系统管理学报, 2011,20(1):98-103.
[198]孙全,叶秀清,顾伟康.一种新的基于证据理论的合成公式[J].电子学报, 2000,28(8):117-119.
[199]李弼程,王波,魏俊等.一种有效的证据理论合成公式[J].数据采集与处理, 2002,17(1):33-36.
[200]张延松,王德明,朱红青.煤矿爆炸、火灾及其防治技术[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2007.
[201]贾迎梅,刘贞堂,王从银等.瓦斯爆炸气体成分实验研究[J].煤炭技术, 2009,28(12):78-80.
[202]陈德华.基于案例推理的突发案件辅助决策系统研究[D].上海:上海交通大学, 2007,9.
[203]郭素.应急辅助决策系统中案例表示与检索方法研究[J].大连:大连理工大学, 2009,12.
[204] G.Busatto, M.Lohrey, S.Maneth. Efficient Memory Representation of XML Document Trees[J].Information Systems, 2008,33(4-5): 456-474.
[205] K.C.Morris. A Framework for XML Schema Naming and Design Rules Development Tools[J].Computer Standards & Interfaces, 2010,32(4):179-184.
[206]李玲娟,汤文宇,王汝传.基于XML的案例表示和案例库构造方法[J].计算机应用研究,2007,24(11):70-73.
[207]李德毅.不确定性人工智能[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005.
[208]张本生,于永利.CBR系统案例搜索中的混合相似性度量方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2002(3):131-136.
[209] N.R.Jennings. On Agent-based Software Engineering[J].Artificial Intelligence,2000,117(2):277-296
[210]史忠植.高级人工智能[M].北京:科学出版社,1997.249-270.
[211] (英)伍尔德里奇(Wooldridge.M.J)著石纯一等译.多Agent系统引论[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2003.
[212] C.J.Anmuba, Z.Ren, A.Thorpe,etal. Negotiation with in a Multi-agent System for the Collaborative Design of Light Industrial Buildings[J].Advances in Engineering Software, 2003,(34):389-401.
[213]康权.基于MAS技术的电网智能调度决策支持系统的研究与应用[D].华北电力大学,2008,1.
[214] M.Molina, G.Blasco. A Multi-agent System for Emergency Decision Support[J]. LNCS, 2003,(2690):43-51.
[215] O.B.Kwon, S.Norman, Applying Case-based Reasoning and Multi-agent Intelligent System to Context-aware Comparative Shopping Original Research Article [J]. Decision Support Systems,2004,37(2):199-213.
[216]杨善林.胡小建.复杂决策任务的建模与求解方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.
[2] C.F.Hermann, International Crises: Insights from Behavioral Research [M].New York, FrePress, 1972.
[3] U.Rosenthal, T.Michael, Charles, P.T.Hart. Coping with Crises: The Mana-gement of Disasters, Riots and Terrorism, Springfield, III [M].Charles C.Thomas Publisher Ltd., 1989.
[4] D.A.Fishman, V.Flight. Crisis Communication Theory Blended and Extended [J]. Communication Puarterly, 1999.
[5] I.Mitroff, Managing Crises Before Happen[M]. New York: American Management Association, 2001.
[6] (美)劳伦斯巴顿(Laurence Barton)著,符彩霞译.组织危机管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2002.
[7] T.Robert. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, as amended by Public Law 106-390, 2000,10(30).
[8]郭济,政府应急管理实务[M].北京:中共中央党校出版社,2004.
[9]杨丽英,李红娟,张永奎.突发事件新闻语料分类体系研究[A].中国中文信息学会二十五周年学术会议[C],2006:403-409.
[10]薛澜,钟开斌.突发公共事件分类、分级与分期:应急体制的管理基础[J].中国行政管理,2005,(2):102-106.
[11] K.F.Cheung, A.C.Phadke, Y.Weietal. Modeling of Storm-induced Coastal Flooding for Emergency Management[J]. Ocean Engineering,2003,30(11):1353-1386.
[12] A.Heiko, A.H.Thieken, M.Bruno etal. A Probabilistic Model System Assessing Flood Risks[J].Natural Hazards,2006,38(2):79-100.
[13] L.C.David, A System Dynamics Analysis of the Westray Mine Disaster [J]. System Dynamic Review,2003,19(2):139-166.
[14]魏一鸣,张林朋,范英.基于Swarm的洪水灾害演化模拟研究[J].管理科学学报,2002,5(6):39-46.
[15]孙康,廖琳武.群体性突发事件的演化博弈分析-以辽东湾海哲捕捞为例[J].系统工程,2006,24(11):59-62.
[16]吴国斌,佘廉.突发事件演化模型与应急决策-相关领域研究评述[J].中国管理科学.2006,(14):827-830.
[17]范珉,苏巨诗,王建军.我国公共场所突发事件演化机理实证分析[J].中国安全生产科学术,2009,04:85-90.
[18]文传甲.论大气灾害链[J].灾害学,1994,9(5):1-6.
[19]文传甲.广义灾害、灾害链及其防治探讨[J].灾害学,2000,15(4):13-18.
[20]王建伟,荣莉莉.突发事件的连锁反应网络模型研究[J].计算机应用研究, 2008,25(11):3288-3291.
[21]裘江南,师花艳,叶鑫等.基于事件的定性知识表示模型研究[J].系统工程, 2009,27(10):1-8.
[22]裘江南,董磊磊,叶鑫等.突发事件耦合度模型研究[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:6-9.
[23]计雷,池宏,陈安等.突发事件应急管理[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2006.
[24]杨静,陈建明,赵红.应急管理中的突发事件分类分级研究[J].管理评论,2005,04:37-41.
[25]季学伟,翁文国等.突发公共事件预警分级模型[J].清华大学学报.2008,08(48): 1252-1255.
[26]李湖生,刘铁民.突发事件应急准备体系研究进展及关键科学问题[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2009,5(6):5-10.
[27] L.Jenkins. Selecting Scenarios for Environmental Disaster Planning [J]. European Journal of Operational Researeh, 2000,121(2):275-286.
[28] L.Jenkins. Determining the Most Informative Scenarios of Environment Impact from Potential Major Accidents[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,1999,55:15-25.
[29]吴宗之,刘茂.重大事故应急救援系统与预案导论[M].北京:冶金工业出版社.2003.
[30]刘功智,刘铁民.重大事故应急预案编制指南[J].劳动保护,2004,4:11-18.
[31]黄建群.浅析应急救援预案存在的问题及改进措施[J].探索与实践,2006,2:9-11.
[32]滕五晓.城市灾害应急预案基本要素探讨[J].城市综合减灾.2006,13(1):11-17.
[33]刘畅,谢红薇等.基于语义Web服务的数字化应急预案检索系统框架[J].电脑开发与应用,2010,1(23):4-7.
[34]范维澄.突发公共事件应急信息系统总体方案构思[J].信息化建设,2005,9:11-14.
[35]范维澄.国家突发公共事件应急管理中科学问题的思考和建议[J].中国科学基金,2007,2:71-76.
[36]刘士兴,张永明,袁非牛等.城市公共安全应急决策支持系统研究[J].安全与环境学报,2007,7(2):140-143.
[37]李红霞,袁晓芳,田水承,王莉.基于义类词典的煤矿瓦斯爆炸案例推理系统研究[A].中国职业安全健康年会[C],2008,12: 112-115.
[38] Yuan Xiaofang, Li Hongxia, Tian Shuicheng.Wang Li.Research on CBR System of Major Emergency Based on Cloud Model and Semantic Class Dictionary[A]. International Symposium on Emergency Management 2009 (ISEM^09)[C],2009,12: 665-670.
[39]魏伟.基于突变论的智能建筑中突发事件处理的决策支持与虚拟仿真[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2009.
[40] C.Barbarosoglua, L.Ozdamarb, A.Cevikb. An Interactive Approach for Hierarchical Analysis of Helieopter Logistics in Disaster Relief Operations[J]. European Journal of Operational Researeh,2004(140):118-133.
[41] C.S.Revelle, H.A.Eiseltl. Location analysis: A synthesis and survey[J]. European Journa1 of operational Researeh,2005,165(l):l-19.
[42]计国君,朱彩虹.突发事件应急物流中资源配送优化问题研究[J].中国流通经济, 2007,(3):18-21.
[43]王苏生,王岩.基于公平优先原则的多受灾点应急资源配置算法[J].运筹与管理,2008,17(3):16-21.
[44]杨琴,赵茜,曹策俊.突发事件后瓶颈资源的在线调度[J].铁道运输与经济,2010,32(8):81-85.
[45]杨琴,周国华,林晶晶,赵茜.应急事件中瓶颈环节的实时优化调度[J].系统工程,2010,28(7):74-77.
[46]陈雷雷,王海燕.大规模突发事件中基于满意度的应急物资优化调度模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(5):46-52 .
[47]杨文国,黄钧,郭田德.大规模突发事件中伤员救助的救护车分配优化模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(7):1218-1233.
[48]孔祥荣,韩伯棠.基于合作博弈的运输分配方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(7):1340-1344.
[49] F.R.B.Cruz, J.M.G.Smith, R.Medeiros. An M/G/C/C State-dependent Network Simulation Model. Computers and Operations Researeh[J].2005, 32(4):919-941.
[50]时勘.基于非常规突发事件应对的心理学研究成果[M].灾难心理学.2008.
[51]陈雪峰,王日出,刘正奎.灾后心理援助的组织与实施[J].心理科学进展, 2009,17(3):499-504.
[52]宋旭红,尚志荣,李涛,赵瑾,李大雨.重大灾害后受灾人群ABC干预的研究[J].临床医药实践,2010,19(21):135-136.
[53]沈荣华.国外防灾救灾应急管理体制[M].北京:中国社会出版社,2008.
[54]李仕明,刘娟娟,王博等.基于情景的非常规突发事件应急管理研究——“2009突发事件应急管理论坛”综述[J].电子科技大学学报(社科版),2010,12(1):1-3.
[55]赵云锋.非常规突发事件的应急管理研究[D].复旦大学.2009.
[56]姜卉,黄钧.罕见重大突发事件应急实时决策中的情景演变[J].华中科技大学学报,2009, 23(1):104-108.
[57]杨文国,贾屹峰,黄钧.非常规突发事件应急决策中的情景分析方法和决策准则研究[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:421-424.
[58]肖磊,李仕明,李晓林.非常规突发事件管理中的“情景学习”初探[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:407-410.
[59]曹学艳,刘娟娟,孙巧利.基于情景演变的非常规突发事件的态势评估研究[A].第五届全国“应急管理——理论与实践”研讨会在济南[C],2010,4:19-23.
[60]刘霞.非常规突发事件动态应急群决策“情景-权变”范式[J].云南社会科学,2010,(5):21-25.
[61]王旭坪,李小龙,郭武斌.基于情景分析的应急路径选择研究[A].第五届全国“应急管理——理论与实践”研讨会[C],2010,4:1-5.
[62]刘樑,刘力玮,姜科.基于情景表现的非常规突发事件处置全过程研究[A].第五届全国“应急管理——理论与实践”研讨会在济南[C],2010,4:50-54.
[63]王博,刘立玮,刘樑.基于情景演变的非常规突发事件应急方案的优化调整[A].第五届全国“应急管理——理论与实践”研讨会[C],2010,4:77-81.
[64]何婧,刘娟娟,胡娉.非常规突发事件进程演化模型的构建[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:59-62.
[65]曹学艳,韦永智,赵鹏飞等.非常规突发事件演化机理研究[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:68-70.
[66]韩传峰,王兴广等.非常规突发事件应急决策系统动态作用机理[J].软科学.2009,8(23):50-53.
[67]晏湘涛,曾华锋等.非常规突发事件中军民一体的指挥体系研究[J].国防科学.2009, 2(30):52-56.
[68]马庆国,王小毅.非常规突发事件中影响当事人状态的要素分析与数理描述[J].管理工程学报.2009,03(23):126-130.
[69]林鸿潮,詹承豫.非常规突发事件应对与应急法的重构[J].中国行政管理.2009,(7):61-65.
[70]杨继君,吴启迪等.面向非常规突发事件的应急资源合作博弈调度[J].系统工程.2008, 9(26):21-25.
[71]杨继君,吴启迪,程艳.面向非常规突发事件的应对方案序贯决策[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2010,38(4):619-624.
[72]韦永智,翁志林,肖延高.非常规突发事件处置过程中的态势研究[A].第五届全国“应急管理——理论与实践”研讨会[C],2010,4:115-120.
[73]王晶,朱建明,唐凤,黄钧.非常规突发事件资源布局中协调性分析与对策研究[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:531-534.
[74]唐凤,朱建明,王晶,黄钧.非常规突发事件应急物资需求分析研究[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:549-553.
[75]杨乙丹.非常规突发事件的应急资源合作博弈储备研究[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:554-558.
[76]王旭坪,李小龙,梁阿密,基于SOA非常规突发事件资源协调决策系统研究[J].情报杂志,2010,29(6):164-169.
[77]赵惠良,刘建平,刘向东.城市交通非常规突发事件的应急资源调度最优路径研究[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2010,12(6):65-68.
[78]王晓,庄亚明.基于案例推理的非常规突发事件资源需求预测[J].西安电子科技大学学报(社会科学版),2010,20(4):22-26.
[79]赵剑波,刘雯雯.非常规突发事件的传播方式与应急决策[J].改革,2009,(11):155-160.
[80]康青春,郑儒欣.非常规突发事件现场应急指挥平台设计与实现[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(3):161-165.
[81]张成福,杨兴坤.非常规突发事件应急管理经验与教训——以H1N1甲型流感为例[J].公共论坛,2010,(4):42-44.
[82]戚建刚.非常规突发事件与我国行政应急管理体制之创新[J].华东政法大学学报, 2010,(5):105-109.
[83]刘娟娟,李仕明.非常规突发事件应急准备体系的构成及运作机理研究[J].现代物业, 2010,9(6):24-26.
[84]张一文,齐佳音,方滨兴,李欲晓.非常规突发事件中网络舆情作用机制初探[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:38-43.
[85]张一文,齐佳音,马君,方滨兴.网络舆情与非常规突发事件作用机制——基于系统动力学建模分析[J].情报杂志, 2010,29(9):1-16.
[86]何婧,刘娟娟,胡娉.非常规突发事件中网络舆情作用机制初探[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:59-63.
[87]姜珊珊,李欲晓,徐敬宏.非常规突发事件网络舆情中的意见领袖分析[J].情报理论与实践,2010,33(12):101-104
[88]徐敬宏,李欲晓,方滨兴,刘颖.非常规突发事件中网络舆情的生成及管理[J].当代传播,2010,(4):41-43.
[89]徐敬宏,宫哲,李慧慧.非常规突发事件中网络舆情的作用分析——以“邓玉娇案”为例[J].学习与实践, 2010,(7):78-82.
[90]云健,刘勇奎,王春霞,何丽君.民族地区非常规突发事件的应急管理智能化[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:711-714.
[91]云健,刘勇奎,王德高.基于复杂系统的民族地区非常规突发事件应急管理研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(3):172-175.
[92]马荔,李欲晓.非常规突发事件中政府信息公开机制研究[J].生产力研究,2010,(06):5-8
[93] H.Kahn, A.Wiener.The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years [M].MacMillan:New York,1967.
[94] J.Gershuny. The Choice Of Scenarios[J].Futures,1976,8:496-508.
[95] M.E.Porter. Competitive Advantage[M].New York:Free Press,1982.
[96] D.M.Georgoff, R.G.Murdick. Manager's Guide To Forecasting [J].Harvard Business Review,1986.1(2):110-120.
[97] W.R.Huss, E.J.Honton. Scenario Planning: What Style Should You Use [J].Long Range Planning, 1987, 20 (4):21-29.
[98] S.P.Schnaars. How to Develop and Use Scenarios[J].Long Range Planning,1987, 20:105-114.
[99] Schoemaker, J.H.Paul. When and How to Use Scenario: A Heuristic Approach With Illustration[J].Journal of Forecasting,1991,10(06):549-564.
[100] N.Finlay Paul. Steps towards Scenario Planning[J].Engineering Management Journal, 1998,8(5):243-246.
[101] Ian Wilson. From Scenario Thinking to Strategic Action[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2000,65(1):23-29.
[102]麦茨林德格伦,汉斯班德霍尔德著,郭子英,郭金林译.情景规划:未来与战略之间的整合[M].北京:北京经济管理出版社,2003,25-39.
[103]宗蓓华,战略预测中的情景分析法[J].预测,1994,(2):50-55.
[104]刘铁民.情景依赖型非常规突发事件应急管理研究[A].第三届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2008,8:425-429.
[105]李仕明,刘樑,王博等.突发事件应急管理中的情景研究[A].第四届国际应急管理论坛暨中国(双法)应急管理专业委员会第五届年会[C],2009,12:425-429.
[106]孙斌.基于情景分析的战略风险管理研究[D].上海:上海交通大学,2009.
[107] Pierre Wack. Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids[J].Harvard Business Review,1985, 63(6): 139-150.
[108] K.Van Der Heijden. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation [M],Wiley, Chichester, 1996.
[109] Kerry Tucker.Scenario Planning[J].Association Management,1999,51(4):70-77.
[110]曾忠禄,张冬梅.不确定环境下解读未来的方法:情景分析法[J].情报方法,2005.5: 14-16.
[111]宋艳,银路等.动态战略规划的情景分析法及其给中国企业的思考[J].科技管理研究,2008.10:148-150.
[112] A.Lee Gilbert. Using Multiple Scenario Analysis to Map the Competitive Future scape: A Practice-based Perspective [J]. Competitive Intelligence Review,2000,11(2):145-167.
[113] A.Fink, O.Schlake. Scenario Management an Approach for Strategic Foresight [J]. Competitive Intelligence Review, 2000,11(1):34-59.
[114] J.Brauers, M.Weber. New Method of Scenario Analysis for Strategic Planning [J].Journal of Forcasting,1988,(7):31-47.
[115] P.J.H.Schoemaker. When and How to Use Scenario Planning:A Heuristic Approach with Illustration[J]. Journal of Forecasting,1991,10(6):549-564.
[116] R.P.Bood, TJBM Postma. Scenario Analysis as a Strategic Management Tool[M]. University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management),1998.
[117] D.David Oryang, Probabilistic Scenario Analysis (PSA)-A Methodology for Quantitative Risk Assessment[A].NAPPO PRA Symposium,2002,03.
[118] D.Mietzner, G.Reger. Advantages and Disadvantages of Scenario Approaches for Strategic Foresight. International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning 2005,1(2):220-239.
[119]金毓渝.情景分析方法中的交叉影响分析[J].上海海运学院学报,1993,(3):46-52.
[120]吉小东,汪寿阳等.一种基于聚类分析的多阶段情景生成方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006,(7):11-17.
[121]朱跃中.中国交通运输部门中长期能源发展与碳排放情景设计及其结果分析[J].中国能源,2001,(11):25-27.
[122]宁钟,王雅青.基于情景分析的供应链风险识别—某全球性公司案例分析[J].工业工程与管理,2007,(2):88-94.
[123]孙建军,柯青.不完全信息环境下的情报分析方法—情景分析法及其在情报研究中的应用[J].图书情报工作,2007,(2):63-66.
[124]王义成,丁志雄等.基于情景分析技术的太湖流域洪水风险动因与响应分析研究初探[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2009,(3):7-13.
[125]金瑞龄,袁辉.应急决策支持系统研究[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1990.
[126]袁辉.重大突发事件及其应急决策研究[J].研究与探索,1996(2):1-4.
[127]桂维民.应急决策论[M].北京:中共中央党校出版社,2007.
[128] L.Coyle, D.Doyle, P. Cunningham. Representing Similarity for CBR in XML[A]. Advances in Case-Based Reasoning (Proc of ECCBR-04) [C]. Madrid,Spain:Springer, 2004:119-127.
[129] S.Y.Yang, P.C.Liao, C.S.Ho. An Ontology-supported Case-based Technique for FAQ[A].Taipei,Taiwan: Proc 17th International Conference on Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering[C].2005:639-644.
[130]曾文,黄玉基.基于案例推理技术在刑法定罪量刑系统中的应用研究[J].广西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2003,21(1):73-78
[131]刘芳,姚莉等.基于语义Web的案例表示和CBR系统结构研究[J].计算机应用,2004,24(1):17-19
[132]周凯波,金斌等.基于XML的面向对象案例表示方法[J].武汉理工大学学报,2005,27(3):86-89.
[133]吴丽华,罗云锋等.基于XML的案例表示和自学习案例检索模型的研究[J].海南师范学院学报(自然科学版),2005,18(3):218-222.
[134]李玲娟,汤文宇,王汝传.基于XML的案例表示和案例库构造方法[J].计算机应用研究,2007,24(11):70-73.
[135]王悦,范君晖,田书格.基于案例推理专家系统中的案例表示方法上海工程技术大学学报,2005,19(1):42-46
[136]曹茂俊,尚福华,滕雪萍.基于描述逻辑的可扩展的案例表示及检索研究[J].科学技术与工程,2010,10(11):2777-2779.
[137]赵卫东,李旗号,盛昭翰.基于案例推理的决策问题求解研究[J].管理科学学报,2000,(4):29-36.
[138]黄继鸿,雷战波,李欣苗.基于遗传禁忌算法的案例检索策略[J].系统工程理论方法应用,2004,13(1):10-13.
[139]李伟明,杨旭,穆志纯.冷轧建模中基于粗糙集和神经网络的案例检索[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2005,24(5):709-712.
[140]孟妍妮,方宗德.一种基于ART-2神经网络的案例检索方法[J].情报学报,2006,25(4):428-432.
[141]李玉玲,陈志国.基于信息粒的信息系统设计案例推理[J].河南大学学报(自然科学版),2008.2(38):195-198.
[142]靖可,赵希男.基于整体优势度的应急救援案例推理决策[J].系统工程, 2008.9(26):15-20.
[143]王海棠,顾君忠,杨静等.基于本体的相似性计算实现高性能案例推理[J].计算机时代,2009,(1):58-60.
[144]闻敬谦,李青.基于本体的语义相似在维修案例推理中应用[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2009,35(2):223-226.
[145] J.M.Corchado, B.Lees. A Hybrid Case-Based Model for Forecasting[J].Applied Artificial Intelligence,2001,12(2):105-127.
[146]段军,戴居丰.案例修正方法研究[J].计算机工程,2006,32(6):1-3.
[147]李伟明,穆志纯.推理建模中基于KDD和粗糙集的案例修改[J].计算机仿真,2006,23(10):141-143.
[148] E.Plaza,E.Armengol,O.Santiago,The Explanatory Power of Symbolic Similarity in Case-based Reasoning[J].Artificial Intelligence Review,2005,24:145-161.
[149] C.Nugent, P.Cunningham. A Case-based Explanation System for Black Box Systems [J].Artificial Intelligence Review,2005(24):163-178.
[150] L.Benchaphon, Z.Yan. Web Service Composition with Case-based Reasoning [A]. Adelaide, Australia: Proceedings of Fourteenth Australasian Database Conference on Database Technologies[C].2003:201-208.
[151] J.D.Sarah, C.Pádraig, L.Coyle. An Assessment of Case-based Reasoning for Spam Filtering[J].Artificial Intelligence Review,2005,24:359-378.
[152] B.Isabelle.Case-based Reasoning in the Health Sciences[J].Artificial Intelligence in Medicine,2006,36(2):121-125.
[153] J.O.Kyong, Y.K.Tae. Financial Market Monitoring by Case-based Reasoning [J].Expert Systems with Applications, In Press, Corrected Proof, Available online,2006,2(20): 378-383.
[154] H.K.Kim, K.H.Im, S.C.Park. DSS for Computer Security Incident Response Applying CBR and Collaborative Response[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2010,37(1): 852-870.
[155] C.W.Koo, T.H.Hong, C.T.Hyun. The Development of a Construction Cost Prediction Model with Improved Prediction Capacity Using the Advanced CBR Approach [J].Expert Systems with Applications, 2011,38(7): 8597-8606.
[156]王君,潘星,李静,刘鲁.基于案例推理的知识管理咨询系统[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2006,46(s1):990-995.
[157]唐雪松,郭立红,陈长喜.基于案例推理方法在态势分析中的应用研究[J].计算机测量与控制,2006,14(12):1723-1725.
[158]赖院根,朱东华,郭颖.基于案例推理的企业专利战略制定研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2007,(8):132-135.
[159]高晓荣,徐英卓等.基于CBR的井下复杂情况与事故智能诊断和处理系统[J].计算机应用研究,2008,25(5):1446-1449.
[160]陈德华.基于案例推理的突发案件辅助决策系统研究[D].上海交通大学,2007,9.
[161]胡小鹏.基于案例推理的刑事案件审判决策支持系统[D].上海海事大学,2007,7.
[162] Wang Li, Tian Shuicheng, Yuan Xiaofang, Ma Xianmin, Research on Gas Explosion IDSS in Coalmines Based on CBR[A].International Conference on Advanced Computer Control[C], 2009:652-656.
[163]廖振良,刘宴辉,徐祖信.基于案例推理的突发性环境污染事件应急预案系统[J].环境污染与防治,2009,31(1):86-89.
[164]吕宗平,胡欣,杨宏宇.基于案例推理的机场应急预案管理[J].中国民航大学学报,2010,28(2):1-5.
[165]李蒙,刘保罗.基于案例推理的矿井通风机故障诊断设计[J].煤炭科学技术, 2010,38(5):97-99.
[166] Liu Li, Zhou Jianzhong, An Xueli etal. Corrigendum to‘Using Fuzzy Theory and Information Entropy for Water Quality Assessment in Three Gorges Region, China’[J] . Expert Systems with Applications,2010,37(3):2517-2521.
[167] K.Tomas, B.Mansson. Entropy and Economic Processes-Physics Perspectives[J]. Ecological Economics,2001,(36):165-179.
[168] V.Lavric, D.Baetens, J.D.Ruyck. Entropy Generation Reduction through Chemical Pinch Analysis. Case Study: Methanol Synthesis Heat Integrated Reactor[J]. Applied Thermal Engineering, 2003,(23):1837-1845.
[169] J.B.Brissaud.The Meaning of Entropy[J].Entropy,2005,7(1):68-96.
[170]王焘,田水承,景兴鹏.熵原理对事故预防的启示[J].陕西煤炭,2008,(4):24-26.
[171]陈伟坷,向兰兰.基于墒及耗散结构的公共安全突发事件的过程分析研究[J].中国软科学,2007,(10):149-154.
[172] J.Park, W.Jung, J.Ha. Development of the Step Complexity Measure for Emergency Operating Procedures Using Entropy Concepts[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2001,71(2):115-130.
[173]邱菀华.管理决策与应用熵学[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2002.
[174]亓菁晶,陈安.突发事件与应急管理的机理体系[J].中国科学院院刊.2009,24(5): 496-503.
[175]王莉.基于三类危险源划分的煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故机理与预警研究[D].西安:西安科技大学,2010.
[176]吴国斌.突发公共事件扩散机理研究――以三峡坝区为例[D].武汉:武汉理工大学, 2006.
[177]侯宏涛.大连输油管爆炸事件[DB/OL].http://baike.baidu.com/view/3966500.htm, 2010-12-24/2011-01-26.
[178]范珉,刘晓君.基于突变理论的公共场所集群事件预警分级[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(2):171-176.
[179] Wang Wenjun, Liu Suling, Zhang Shushen, Chen Jingwen. Assessment of a model of pollution disaster in near-shore coastal waters based on catastrophe theory [J]. Ecological Modelling, 2011,222(2):307-312.
[180]林大建,周永安,蔡嗣经.基于蝴蝶型突变理论的安全生产保障系统分析和探讨[ J].中国安全科学学报,2007,(10), 28-31.
[181]史志富,张安,刘海燕等.基于突变理论与模糊集的复杂系统多准则决策[J].系统工程与电子技术,2006,28(7):1010-1013.
[182]魏雪莲.害虫种群动态模型的燕尾突变分析及系统分析[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2009.
[183]姜路,于连宇.初等突变理论在社会科学中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2002,(10):113-117.
[184]田水承.第三类危险源辨识与控制研究[D].北京:北京理工大学.2001.7
[185]田水承,李红霞,王莉等.从三类危险源看煤矿事故的频发[J].中国安全科学学报, 2007,17(1):10-15
[186]袁大祥,严四海.事故的突变论[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,13(3):5-7.
[187]董华,杨卫波.事故和灾害预测中的突变模型[J].地质灾害与环境保护, 2003,14(3):39-44.
[188]林大建,张旭阳.基于蝴蝶突变理论的企业安全生产保障系统危险程度四维分析模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,5(3):116-119.
[189]林大建.基于突变理论的企业安全生产危险程度动态评价研究[D].北京科技大学博士学位论文,2007,7.
[190]周绍江.突变理论在环境影响评价中的应用[J].人民长江,2003,34(2):52-54.
[191]史志富,张安,刘海燕,张圣云.基于突变理论与模糊集的复杂系统多准则决策[J].系统工程与电子技术,2006,28(7):1010-1013.
[192]朱丽丽.成品油库安全综合评价研究[D].北京:北京化工大学,2008,6.
[193] Chang Meishang, Teng Yaling, Chen Jingwen. A Scenario Planning Approach for theFlood Emergency Logistics Preparation Problem under Uncertainty[A]. Transportation Research PartE43[C].2007: 737-754.
[194] G.Barbarosogˇlu, Y.Arda. A Two-stage Stochastic Programming Framework for Transportation Planning in Disaster Response[J]. Journal of the Operational Research Society,2004,55:43-53.
[195] Ye Hua, Ma Yan, Dong Limin. Land Ecological Security Assessment for Bai Autonomous Prefecture of Dali Based Using PSR Model--with Data in 2009 as Case[J]. Energy Procedia,2011,5:2172-2177.
[196]孙兆林,杨宏文,胡卫东.基于贝叶斯网络的态势估计方法[J].计算机应用, 2005,25(4):745-747.
[197]裘江南,王延章,董磊磊等.基于贝叶斯网络的突发事件预测模型[J].系统管理学报, 2011,20(1):98-103.
[198]孙全,叶秀清,顾伟康.一种新的基于证据理论的合成公式[J].电子学报, 2000,28(8):117-119.
[199]李弼程,王波,魏俊等.一种有效的证据理论合成公式[J].数据采集与处理, 2002,17(1):33-36.
[200]张延松,王德明,朱红青.煤矿爆炸、火灾及其防治技术[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2007.
[201]贾迎梅,刘贞堂,王从银等.瓦斯爆炸气体成分实验研究[J].煤炭技术, 2009,28(12):78-80.
[202]陈德华.基于案例推理的突发案件辅助决策系统研究[D].上海:上海交通大学, 2007,9.
[203]郭素.应急辅助决策系统中案例表示与检索方法研究[J].大连:大连理工大学, 2009,12.
[204] G.Busatto, M.Lohrey, S.Maneth. Efficient Memory Representation of XML Document Trees[J].Information Systems, 2008,33(4-5): 456-474.
[205] K.C.Morris. A Framework for XML Schema Naming and Design Rules Development Tools[J].Computer Standards & Interfaces, 2010,32(4):179-184.
[206]李玲娟,汤文宇,王汝传.基于XML的案例表示和案例库构造方法[J].计算机应用研究,2007,24(11):70-73.
[207]李德毅.不确定性人工智能[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005.
[208]张本生,于永利.CBR系统案例搜索中的混合相似性度量方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2002(3):131-136.
[209] N.R.Jennings. On Agent-based Software Engineering[J].Artificial Intelligence,2000,117(2):277-296
[210]史忠植.高级人工智能[M].北京:科学出版社,1997.249-270.
[211] (英)伍尔德里奇(Wooldridge.M.J)著石纯一等译.多Agent系统引论[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2003.
[212] C.J.Anmuba, Z.Ren, A.Thorpe,etal. Negotiation with in a Multi-agent System for the Collaborative Design of Light Industrial Buildings[J].Advances in Engineering Software, 2003,(34):389-401.
[213]康权.基于MAS技术的电网智能调度决策支持系统的研究与应用[D].华北电力大学,2008,1.
[214] M.Molina, G.Blasco. A Multi-agent System for Emergency Decision Support[J]. LNCS, 2003,(2690):43-51.
[215] O.B.Kwon, S.Norman, Applying Case-based Reasoning and Multi-agent Intelligent System to Context-aware Comparative Shopping Original Research Article [J]. Decision Support Systems,2004,37(2):199-213.
[216]杨善林.胡小建.复杂决策任务的建模与求解方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.