仪器观测时期中国温度变化研究
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摘要
本研究利用目前能够得到的最完整的中国地面气温器测资料,在对资料进行审核、订正和插补的基础上,采用新的平均气温统计方法和面积加权平均方法重新建立并延长了近百年中国温度序列。对于中国近百年来的温度变化趋势、变化周期以及突变特征等进行了详细的分析和探讨。并预估了未来的气候变化趋势。由于历史原因,1950年以前的温度资料存在缺、错和观测规范不统一等多方面的问题。针对这些问题,本研究首先完成了以下几项工作:
1.采用年值判别法、三项温度判别法和三倍标准差判别法对资料进行了质量控制。得到了有较高质量的温度资料集。在此基础上,又通过筛选参考站,利用差值订正法对缺测数据进行了插补并对部分序列进行了延长。
2.在对不同平均气温统计方法及其影响进行分析之后,本文采用最高、最低气温求取平均气温,从而明显改善了中国地面气温序列的均一性和整体质量。
3.对全国平均温度序列的代表性进行了逐年代分析,结果显示:在19世纪70至90年代,全国平均序列大约能反映半个中国的情况;自20世纪初期以后,序列已有了一定的可靠性;而从1921年开始就具有了比较大的可靠性。
本文的研究结果表明:自1873年以来,中国气候呈显著的增暖趋势,其中年平均气温大约上升了0.96℃,年平均最高、最低气温分别上升约1.20℃和0.70℃;20世纪初以来平均气温升高约0.80℃,1951年以来升高约1.13℃。从温度场的时空结构看,20年代后期至40年代和80年代中期之后存在两次明显的暖期,但两者有明显的差异。前者的增暖不具有全国性,其增暖中心主要位于30o～40oN之间且中西部偏暖范围大于东部地区。后者的增暖首先开始于35oN以北区域,90年代中期后扩展至全国。其增暖是全国性的,但最强的增暖区主要分布于34oN以北区域。此外,在50年代中期至80年代中期,冷暖转换比较频繁,而且常常是全国性变化。
中国温度变化趋势存在明显的区域性差异。近55年来,增温趋势最显著的区域主要分布在34oN以北的大部分地区,青藏高原的增温也相对较快;西南地区增温不明显,南方其它地区的增温幅度较小。最高、最低气温变化趋势的分布与平均气温有一定相似性,但全国大多数地区的最低气温增温速率显著高于最高气温。而且南方地区的最高气温变化趋势不明显。就全国平均而言,近55年来最低气温的变化幅度大于最高气温,表明夜间的气温变化在平均温度变化中起了主要作用。而最低气温在50～60年代和80年代后分别有较大幅度的偏低和偏高导致其增温速率远远高于最高气温。此外,在70年代中后期全球大气环流有一次明显的调整,在调整前气温日较差相对偏大,但在调整后气温日较差相对变小。
与全球和半球比较,中国平均温度的总体变化趋势及波动特征与全球或北半球相当一致,但也存在着两点明显的差异。其一是中国温度的波动幅度大于北半球同期的变化;其二是中国存在两次非常显著的增暖期,一次发生于20世纪30～40年代,更强的一次发生于80年代之后。虽然全球和半球的第二次增暖期非常强,但第一次增暖期显然要弱得多。1873年以来全球平均气温升高约0.72℃,同期中国平均气温升高0.96℃,比全球略高0.24℃。但中国平均气温上升幅度并非始终高于全球平均。以20世纪20年代以前的计算结果,中国平均气温增温幅度与全球的比值大约在78%～133%之间。其中部分结果相当接近,如1890～2005年中国增温0.78℃,与同期北半球完全一致,比全球平均也仅高0.03℃。分析结果表明,当时间尺度较短时,中国与全球变化趋势的差异较大。但若从较长尺度的长期变化趋势角度看,两者的差异则趋于减小。
本研究应用小波分析技术和移动T检验方法分析中国近百年温度序列的多时间尺度特征以及周期和突变特征。结果表明,近百年来中国温度变化存在着显著的64～71年左右的周期振荡,它的振幅最强并在1926～2005年时段表现得更加明显。这种特征与东亚和全球的气候振荡特征基本一致。除了主要周期,在1873～1925年时段,34～40年左右尺度的振荡表现也相当明显。此外,还存在着其它多种尺度的振荡,但周期性变化大都仅出现于一些较短的时段。这些较短尺度的振荡造成了温度序列的短期波动。
突变分析表明,近百年中国温度变化经历了三次时间尺度为20～30年左右的突变,分别出现于1925～1932年、1986～1988年(冷到暖)和1950～1956年(暖到冷)。另有两次15年左右尺度的突变,即1888～1889年(冷到暖)和1905～1907年(暖到冷)。1986年由冷到暖的突变过程发生变化最大的区域主要在北方,尽管南方也由冷转暖,但其升温幅度明显弱于前者。这表明北方地区的强增暖在这次突变中起了主要作用。
周期分析表明,当前正处于振荡周期正位相的中心位置附近,未来一段时期气温还会继续维持在偏高位置,但到2020～2025年前后有可能出现由暖到冷的突变。不过这种突变只表示气候振荡由正位相转变到负位相。如考虑气候继续变暖的影响,其可能的结果是在一个更高平均值水平上的振荡,而不是简单地回到原来的起点。
展望未来,在提高早期序列的代表性;分析并估计城市热岛效应等环境因素对温度变化的影响;以及探讨中国气候变化的可能原因等方面还有许多工作有待今后进一步深入研究。
In this paper, based on the instrumental surface air temperature data in China as many observation stations as possible, which have been looked though, corrected and made interpolation, China’s surface air temperature time series in the recent 100 years and more have been re-calculated and extended by adopting new statistical method for calculating mean temperature and area weighted average method. The temperature change trends, periods as well as abrupt changes in the recent 100 years and more in China are analyzed and discussed. And the future temperature change trend has also estimated.
Because of past history, there are some problems as gaps of observation, mistakes and an observation norm without unification etc. in the data before 1950. Being aimed at these problems, the works have been finished as follows: firstly, the data set used in this paper have been quality-controlled by means of the comparison of annual mean values, the relationship between three (mean, maximum and minimum) temperatures and triplication standard error. Consequently, the quality-higher data set has been obtained. Based on the more reliable data set, the data series minus some observations have inserted and partly prolonged by adopting difference correction method on possible condition. Secondly, after the different methods of calculating mean temperature and its influences on the results are analyzed and discussed, adopting the mean temperature derived from maximum and minimum temperature, accordingly, the homogeneity and quality of China’s surface air temperature time series are markedly improved. Thirdly, the representativeness of China’s surface air temperature time series is analyzed decade after decade. The results display that the series can reflect the climate change of approximately half China during 1870s–1890s; From the early 20th century on, the series has already had definite reliability; since 1921, it has had higher reliability.
The results of this research show that since 1873, the climate in China has shown an evident warming trend. The annual mean temperature has risen by about 0.96℃. The annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures have respectively risen by about 1.20℃and 0.70℃. Since the early 20th century, the annual mean temperature has approximately risen by 0.80℃; Since 1951, it has risen by about 1.13℃. According to the analysis for the temperature fields, there are two remarkable warm periods during the late 1920s–1940s and 1980s in China, but with obvious differences between them. The first warming is not countrywide, in which its center mainly lie in the region between 30oN and 40oN and the warming range in the central and western portions is more than that in the eastern part of China. The second warming occurred firstly to the north region of 35oN, and afterward extended all but to the whole of China after the middle 1990s. This warming is countrywide, but then the strongest warming region is to the north of 34oN. Besides, the climate alternated more frequently between warm and cold during the middle 1950s–the middle 1980s, which is generally a countrywide change.
The temperature change trends have obviously regional differences in China. In the recent 55 years, the most remarkable warming regions lie mainly to the north of 34oN, and the warming in Qinghai-Xizang plateau is also obvious; But then the warming in the southwest is not obvious, and the warming extent in the rest of the south is less. The distributions of maximum and minimum temperature change trends are a certain extent similar to that of the mean temperature. But the warming rates of minimum temperatures are much greater than those of maximum temperatures in most of the regions in China. And the maximum temperature change trend is not evident in the south. As far as all country average is concerned, the change extent of the minimum temperature is greater than that of the maximum temperature in the recent 55 years, which shows that the temperature change during the nighttime hours plays major role in the change of the mean temperature. As a result of the greater extent of low in 1950s–1960s and of high after 1980s, the warming rate of minimum temperature is much more than that of maximum temperature. Besides, a remarkable adjustment of the atmosphere general circulation occurred in the middle and late 1970s. The average daily range before the adjustment is relatively greater. However the one after the adjustment is relatively less.
The change trend and fluctuation feature of the mean temperature in China are to a great extent consistent with those of global and hemispherical mean temperatures, but there are also some differences. First, the fluctuation extent of the mean temperature in China is greater than one of northern hemisphere in the corresponding period. Second, there are two highly notable warm periods in China, which occurred respectively during 1930s–1940s and after 1980s. Although the second warm periods of the globe and hemispheres are very strong, their first warm periods are apparently weaker. The global average surface air temperature has increased by 0.72℃since 1873, and the China’s one of the same term has increased by 0.96℃, which is higher by 0.24℃than that of the globe. But the increased extent of China’s average temperature is not all the time higher than that of the globe. According to the results that the beginning years are before 1920s, the ratios between both are about 78%–133%. Some of them are rather adjacent, for example, the increased extent of 0.78℃during 1890–2005 in China is equal to one of northern hemisphere, and merely higher by 0.03℃than one of the globe. The analysis results show that while the time scale is shorter, there is greater difference between the temperature change trends of China and globe. However, from the point of view of the long-term change trend with longer timescale, their difference tends to diminish.
Using wavelet analysis technique and moving-t test method, the multi-time scale character as well as the periods and the abrupt change points for the air temperature change in the last 133 years in China are analyzed. The results indicate that there is the oscillation period 64–71 years for China’s air temperature changes in the last 100 years and more, which has the strongest extent and plays major role during 1926–2005. It is basically consistent with the oscillation features of the climate in East Asia and the globe. In addition to the major period, the oscillation period 34–40 years is rather obvious during 1873–1925. And there are a number of scale periods, but they only occur in some shorter periods of time. These shorter time-scale oscillations bring forth the short-term fluctuations of the air temperature in China.
The abrupt change analysis shows that the air temperature changes experienced three abrupt changes with the timescale around 20–30 years in the last 133 years in China, which occurred respectively in 1925–1932, 1986–1988 (cold–warm) and 1950–1956 (warm–cold). There are other two abrupt changes with the timescale around 15 years, occurred respectively in 1888–1889 (cold–warm) and 1905–1907 (warm–cold). The strongest air temperature change in the transitional process from cold to warm in 1986 occurred basically in the north of China. Although the climate in the south of China changes from cold to warm at the same time, the warming extent is weaker than that of the former. This shows that the strong warming in the north of China plays main role in the abrupt change.
The period analysis displays that the current climate is about the center of the positive phase of the oscillation period, and in the future period of time the air temperature will still continue in the higher position. However, the abrupt change from warm to cold is likely to occur approximately in 2020–2025. But then this abrupt change express only that the position of the climate oscillation change from the positive phase to the negative phase. If considering the influences of the continuous warming of climate on it, it will be the possible result that the air temperature oscillates on a higher level of average value, and does not simply return to the primary jumping-off point.
Looking to the future, some further studies, such as advancing the representativeness of the early series, analyzing and estimating the impacts of the environmental factors like urban heat island effect etc. on the temperature changes as well as discussing the possible causes of the climate change in China and so on, should be planed and made.
1.采用年值判别法、三项温度判别法和三倍标准差判别法对资料进行了质量控制。得到了有较高质量的温度资料集。在此基础上,又通过筛选参考站,利用差值订正法对缺测数据进行了插补并对部分序列进行了延长。
2.在对不同平均气温统计方法及其影响进行分析之后,本文采用最高、最低气温求取平均气温,从而明显改善了中国地面气温序列的均一性和整体质量。
3.对全国平均温度序列的代表性进行了逐年代分析,结果显示:在19世纪70至90年代,全国平均序列大约能反映半个中国的情况;自20世纪初期以后,序列已有了一定的可靠性;而从1921年开始就具有了比较大的可靠性。
本文的研究结果表明:自1873年以来,中国气候呈显著的增暖趋势,其中年平均气温大约上升了0.96℃,年平均最高、最低气温分别上升约1.20℃和0.70℃;20世纪初以来平均气温升高约0.80℃,1951年以来升高约1.13℃。从温度场的时空结构看,20年代后期至40年代和80年代中期之后存在两次明显的暖期,但两者有明显的差异。前者的增暖不具有全国性,其增暖中心主要位于30o～40oN之间且中西部偏暖范围大于东部地区。后者的增暖首先开始于35oN以北区域,90年代中期后扩展至全国。其增暖是全国性的,但最强的增暖区主要分布于34oN以北区域。此外,在50年代中期至80年代中期,冷暖转换比较频繁,而且常常是全国性变化。
中国温度变化趋势存在明显的区域性差异。近55年来,增温趋势最显著的区域主要分布在34oN以北的大部分地区,青藏高原的增温也相对较快;西南地区增温不明显,南方其它地区的增温幅度较小。最高、最低气温变化趋势的分布与平均气温有一定相似性,但全国大多数地区的最低气温增温速率显著高于最高气温。而且南方地区的最高气温变化趋势不明显。就全国平均而言,近55年来最低气温的变化幅度大于最高气温,表明夜间的气温变化在平均温度变化中起了主要作用。而最低气温在50～60年代和80年代后分别有较大幅度的偏低和偏高导致其增温速率远远高于最高气温。此外,在70年代中后期全球大气环流有一次明显的调整,在调整前气温日较差相对偏大,但在调整后气温日较差相对变小。
与全球和半球比较,中国平均温度的总体变化趋势及波动特征与全球或北半球相当一致,但也存在着两点明显的差异。其一是中国温度的波动幅度大于北半球同期的变化;其二是中国存在两次非常显著的增暖期,一次发生于20世纪30～40年代,更强的一次发生于80年代之后。虽然全球和半球的第二次增暖期非常强,但第一次增暖期显然要弱得多。1873年以来全球平均气温升高约0.72℃,同期中国平均气温升高0.96℃,比全球略高0.24℃。但中国平均气温上升幅度并非始终高于全球平均。以20世纪20年代以前的计算结果,中国平均气温增温幅度与全球的比值大约在78%～133%之间。其中部分结果相当接近,如1890～2005年中国增温0.78℃,与同期北半球完全一致,比全球平均也仅高0.03℃。分析结果表明,当时间尺度较短时,中国与全球变化趋势的差异较大。但若从较长尺度的长期变化趋势角度看,两者的差异则趋于减小。
本研究应用小波分析技术和移动T检验方法分析中国近百年温度序列的多时间尺度特征以及周期和突变特征。结果表明,近百年来中国温度变化存在着显著的64～71年左右的周期振荡,它的振幅最强并在1926～2005年时段表现得更加明显。这种特征与东亚和全球的气候振荡特征基本一致。除了主要周期,在1873～1925年时段,34～40年左右尺度的振荡表现也相当明显。此外,还存在着其它多种尺度的振荡,但周期性变化大都仅出现于一些较短的时段。这些较短尺度的振荡造成了温度序列的短期波动。
突变分析表明,近百年中国温度变化经历了三次时间尺度为20～30年左右的突变,分别出现于1925～1932年、1986～1988年(冷到暖)和1950～1956年(暖到冷)。另有两次15年左右尺度的突变,即1888～1889年(冷到暖)和1905～1907年(暖到冷)。1986年由冷到暖的突变过程发生变化最大的区域主要在北方,尽管南方也由冷转暖,但其升温幅度明显弱于前者。这表明北方地区的强增暖在这次突变中起了主要作用。
周期分析表明,当前正处于振荡周期正位相的中心位置附近,未来一段时期气温还会继续维持在偏高位置,但到2020～2025年前后有可能出现由暖到冷的突变。不过这种突变只表示气候振荡由正位相转变到负位相。如考虑气候继续变暖的影响,其可能的结果是在一个更高平均值水平上的振荡,而不是简单地回到原来的起点。
展望未来,在提高早期序列的代表性;分析并估计城市热岛效应等环境因素对温度变化的影响;以及探讨中国气候变化的可能原因等方面还有许多工作有待今后进一步深入研究。
In this paper, based on the instrumental surface air temperature data in China as many observation stations as possible, which have been looked though, corrected and made interpolation, China’s surface air temperature time series in the recent 100 years and more have been re-calculated and extended by adopting new statistical method for calculating mean temperature and area weighted average method. The temperature change trends, periods as well as abrupt changes in the recent 100 years and more in China are analyzed and discussed. And the future temperature change trend has also estimated.
Because of past history, there are some problems as gaps of observation, mistakes and an observation norm without unification etc. in the data before 1950. Being aimed at these problems, the works have been finished as follows: firstly, the data set used in this paper have been quality-controlled by means of the comparison of annual mean values, the relationship between three (mean, maximum and minimum) temperatures and triplication standard error. Consequently, the quality-higher data set has been obtained. Based on the more reliable data set, the data series minus some observations have inserted and partly prolonged by adopting difference correction method on possible condition. Secondly, after the different methods of calculating mean temperature and its influences on the results are analyzed and discussed, adopting the mean temperature derived from maximum and minimum temperature, accordingly, the homogeneity and quality of China’s surface air temperature time series are markedly improved. Thirdly, the representativeness of China’s surface air temperature time series is analyzed decade after decade. The results display that the series can reflect the climate change of approximately half China during 1870s–1890s; From the early 20th century on, the series has already had definite reliability; since 1921, it has had higher reliability.
The results of this research show that since 1873, the climate in China has shown an evident warming trend. The annual mean temperature has risen by about 0.96℃. The annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures have respectively risen by about 1.20℃and 0.70℃. Since the early 20th century, the annual mean temperature has approximately risen by 0.80℃; Since 1951, it has risen by about 1.13℃. According to the analysis for the temperature fields, there are two remarkable warm periods during the late 1920s–1940s and 1980s in China, but with obvious differences between them. The first warming is not countrywide, in which its center mainly lie in the region between 30oN and 40oN and the warming range in the central and western portions is more than that in the eastern part of China. The second warming occurred firstly to the north region of 35oN, and afterward extended all but to the whole of China after the middle 1990s. This warming is countrywide, but then the strongest warming region is to the north of 34oN. Besides, the climate alternated more frequently between warm and cold during the middle 1950s–the middle 1980s, which is generally a countrywide change.
The temperature change trends have obviously regional differences in China. In the recent 55 years, the most remarkable warming regions lie mainly to the north of 34oN, and the warming in Qinghai-Xizang plateau is also obvious; But then the warming in the southwest is not obvious, and the warming extent in the rest of the south is less. The distributions of maximum and minimum temperature change trends are a certain extent similar to that of the mean temperature. But the warming rates of minimum temperatures are much greater than those of maximum temperatures in most of the regions in China. And the maximum temperature change trend is not evident in the south. As far as all country average is concerned, the change extent of the minimum temperature is greater than that of the maximum temperature in the recent 55 years, which shows that the temperature change during the nighttime hours plays major role in the change of the mean temperature. As a result of the greater extent of low in 1950s–1960s and of high after 1980s, the warming rate of minimum temperature is much more than that of maximum temperature. Besides, a remarkable adjustment of the atmosphere general circulation occurred in the middle and late 1970s. The average daily range before the adjustment is relatively greater. However the one after the adjustment is relatively less.
The change trend and fluctuation feature of the mean temperature in China are to a great extent consistent with those of global and hemispherical mean temperatures, but there are also some differences. First, the fluctuation extent of the mean temperature in China is greater than one of northern hemisphere in the corresponding period. Second, there are two highly notable warm periods in China, which occurred respectively during 1930s–1940s and after 1980s. Although the second warm periods of the globe and hemispheres are very strong, their first warm periods are apparently weaker. The global average surface air temperature has increased by 0.72℃since 1873, and the China’s one of the same term has increased by 0.96℃, which is higher by 0.24℃than that of the globe. But the increased extent of China’s average temperature is not all the time higher than that of the globe. According to the results that the beginning years are before 1920s, the ratios between both are about 78%–133%. Some of them are rather adjacent, for example, the increased extent of 0.78℃during 1890–2005 in China is equal to one of northern hemisphere, and merely higher by 0.03℃than one of the globe. The analysis results show that while the time scale is shorter, there is greater difference between the temperature change trends of China and globe. However, from the point of view of the long-term change trend with longer timescale, their difference tends to diminish.
Using wavelet analysis technique and moving-t test method, the multi-time scale character as well as the periods and the abrupt change points for the air temperature change in the last 133 years in China are analyzed. The results indicate that there is the oscillation period 64–71 years for China’s air temperature changes in the last 100 years and more, which has the strongest extent and plays major role during 1926–2005. It is basically consistent with the oscillation features of the climate in East Asia and the globe. In addition to the major period, the oscillation period 34–40 years is rather obvious during 1873–1925. And there are a number of scale periods, but they only occur in some shorter periods of time. These shorter time-scale oscillations bring forth the short-term fluctuations of the air temperature in China.
The abrupt change analysis shows that the air temperature changes experienced three abrupt changes with the timescale around 20–30 years in the last 133 years in China, which occurred respectively in 1925–1932, 1986–1988 (cold–warm) and 1950–1956 (warm–cold). There are other two abrupt changes with the timescale around 15 years, occurred respectively in 1888–1889 (cold–warm) and 1905–1907 (warm–cold). The strongest air temperature change in the transitional process from cold to warm in 1986 occurred basically in the north of China. Although the climate in the south of China changes from cold to warm at the same time, the warming extent is weaker than that of the former. This shows that the strong warming in the north of China plays main role in the abrupt change.
The period analysis displays that the current climate is about the center of the positive phase of the oscillation period, and in the future period of time the air temperature will still continue in the higher position. However, the abrupt change from warm to cold is likely to occur approximately in 2020–2025. But then this abrupt change express only that the position of the climate oscillation change from the positive phase to the negative phase. If considering the influences of the continuous warming of climate on it, it will be the possible result that the air temperature oscillates on a higher level of average value, and does not simply return to the primary jumping-off point.
Looking to the future, some further studies, such as advancing the representativeness of the early series, analyzing and estimating the impacts of the environmental factors like urban heat island effect etc. on the temperature changes as well as discussing the possible causes of the climate change in China and so on, should be planed and made.
引文
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