海上石油工程国际合作项目风险评价及控制研究
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摘要
海洋蕴含着丰富的石油和天然气等能源。近年来,为了缓解能源供给紧张的情况,许多国家和大型石油公司都投入了大量的资金和技术合作开发海上石油资源,海上石油勘探开发活动由此得以迅速、繁荣地发展。但海上石油勘探开发活动由于受各种不确定因素的影响,存在着许多复杂的风险,这使得各个国家或石油公司在开展海上石油工程国际合作项目时,面临着巨大的风险。目前,这些风险正变得日趋繁杂,引起了人们的广泛关注。
文章在借鉴国内外相关研究理论的基础上,结合海上石油工程国际合作项目风险的特点和风险评价理论,对海上石油工程国际合作项目的风险进行了深入分析。首先,界定了海上石油工程国际合作项目的概念,分析了海上石油工程国际合作项目及其风险的特点;其次,运用德尔菲法,咨询权威专家的意见,识别了海上石油工程国际合作项目的风险,包括政治风险、经济风险、社会风险、自然风险、工程风险和管理风险共六大类风险;再次,建立了海上石油工程国际合作项目的风险因素评价指标体系和风险后果严重度评价指标体系,并运用三角模糊数法确定了指标的权重。接下来,确定了风险因素等级的评价标准,运用模糊综合评价法构建了海上石油工程国际合作项目风险评价模型;最后,针对海上石油工程国际合作项目的风险,提出了风险控制的对策,为我国石油公司参与国际海上石油工程合作时的项目风险管理提供理论参考。
Ocean are rich in oil and gas and other energy. Recently, to ease tensions in the energy supply, many countries and major oil companies have invested lots of capital and technology to develop offshore oil resources. Therefore offshore oil exploration and exploitation activities began to develop rapidly and prosperously. But due to the influence of various uncertainties, there are many complex risks in offshore oil exploration and exploitation activities, which makes the various countries and oil companies in carrying out offshore oil engineering international cooperation projects, faces enormous risks. At present, these risks are becoming increasingly complicated, and has aroused extensive attention.
Based on the related research theory at home and abroad, joining the offshore oil engineering international cooperation project risk’s characteristics and risk evaluation theory, this paper analyzes deeply project risk. Firstly, defines the concept of offshore oil engineering international cooperation projects, analyses the characteristics of projects and risk. Secondly, using the Delphi method, consults the authoritative experts, identifies the risks of offshore oil engineering international cooperation project, including political, economic, social, natural, project and management risk, total of six categories of risk. Thirdly, establishes risk factors evaluation index system and risk consequences severity evaluation index system of offshore oil engineering international cooperation project, and using the triangular fuzzy number method to determine the index weight. Next, determines the assessment standards of risk factor rank, constructs the risk assessment model of project with using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Finally, to the risk of offshore oil engineering international cooperation project, puts forward risk control measures, and provide a theoretical reference for China's oil companies’risk management in participating in offshore oil engineering international cooperation project.
文章在借鉴国内外相关研究理论的基础上,结合海上石油工程国际合作项目风险的特点和风险评价理论,对海上石油工程国际合作项目的风险进行了深入分析。首先,界定了海上石油工程国际合作项目的概念,分析了海上石油工程国际合作项目及其风险的特点;其次,运用德尔菲法,咨询权威专家的意见,识别了海上石油工程国际合作项目的风险,包括政治风险、经济风险、社会风险、自然风险、工程风险和管理风险共六大类风险;再次,建立了海上石油工程国际合作项目的风险因素评价指标体系和风险后果严重度评价指标体系,并运用三角模糊数法确定了指标的权重。接下来,确定了风险因素等级的评价标准,运用模糊综合评价法构建了海上石油工程国际合作项目风险评价模型;最后,针对海上石油工程国际合作项目的风险,提出了风险控制的对策,为我国石油公司参与国际海上石油工程合作时的项目风险管理提供理论参考。
Ocean are rich in oil and gas and other energy. Recently, to ease tensions in the energy supply, many countries and major oil companies have invested lots of capital and technology to develop offshore oil resources. Therefore offshore oil exploration and exploitation activities began to develop rapidly and prosperously. But due to the influence of various uncertainties, there are many complex risks in offshore oil exploration and exploitation activities, which makes the various countries and oil companies in carrying out offshore oil engineering international cooperation projects, faces enormous risks. At present, these risks are becoming increasingly complicated, and has aroused extensive attention.
Based on the related research theory at home and abroad, joining the offshore oil engineering international cooperation project risk’s characteristics and risk evaluation theory, this paper analyzes deeply project risk. Firstly, defines the concept of offshore oil engineering international cooperation projects, analyses the characteristics of projects and risk. Secondly, using the Delphi method, consults the authoritative experts, identifies the risks of offshore oil engineering international cooperation project, including political, economic, social, natural, project and management risk, total of six categories of risk. Thirdly, establishes risk factors evaluation index system and risk consequences severity evaluation index system of offshore oil engineering international cooperation project, and using the triangular fuzzy number method to determine the index weight. Next, determines the assessment standards of risk factor rank, constructs the risk assessment model of project with using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Finally, to the risk of offshore oil engineering international cooperation project, puts forward risk control measures, and provide a theoretical reference for China's oil companies’risk management in participating in offshore oil engineering international cooperation project.
引文
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[30]王希华.海洋石油工程的风险管理及预防[J].中国造船(增刊),2008,49:676-679.
[31]潘大新,霍有利.海上油气田工程油气泄漏事故风险分析[J].海洋环境科学,2009,4:426-429.
[32]崔源,郑国栋.海上石油设施溢油风险管理与防控研究[J].油气田环境保护,2010,20(1):29-32.
[33]宋朝霞.国际海洋石油工程项目风险分析[D].天津大学硕士学位论文,2007-4.
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[35] Peter R Rose.Risk and Management of Petroleum Exploration Ventures[M].AAPG Methods in Exploration Series,2001:12.
[36] A.K.Wojtanowicz.Environmental Technology in the Oil Industry[M].Springer Netherlands,2007:123-154.
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[38]侯贵卿,卢鸿.国际石油合作在中国海洋石油资源开发利用中的作用[J].海洋地质动态,1998,10:5-7.
[39]罗佐县.我国海洋油气生产对外合作现状及展望[J].化学工业,2009,27(7):23-29.
[40]满学杰.中国首次涉足海洋石油国际风险[J].勘探中国化工报,2000,1:34-36.
[41]胡艳妮.工程项目风险识别与分析方法探讨[J].现代商贸工业,2010,21,46-47.
[42]武乾,武增海,李慧民.工程项目风险评价方法研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2006,4(2):258-262.
[43]田岚.石油天然气钻井工程风险识别与评价方法[J].钻采工艺,2010,33(2):31-33.
[44]冯宁.大型工程项目风险评价指标体系的构建[J].基建优化,2007,12(6):48-50.
[45]王礼茂,方叶兵.国家石油安全评估指标体系的构建[J].自然资源学报,2008,9(5):821-831.
[46]窦红波.中国石油公司海外经营风险管理体系建设初探[J].国际石油经济,2008,8:20-26.
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[49]陈忠民,潘校华,黄先雄.北非库弗腊盆地油气成藏条件及地质风险初探[J].石油勘探和开发,2007,4(34):252-256.
[50]王众.天然气勘探风险评价与决策研究[D].成都理工大学硕士学位论文,2009-5.
[51]王亮国,刘树根,杨登维.油气勘探地质风险分析程序与原则—以川西前陆盆地为例[J].国土资源科技管理,2004,4(22):10-15.
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[2] Rod Sloan,S Qing Sun.Global Survey on use of Geological Analogs[J].Petroleum Exploration and Development,2004,6(31):55.
[3]宋哲明.现代风险管理[M].北京:中国纺织出版社,2003:5-8.
[4]李志刚.海洋工程项目管理风险分析模型研究[D].天津大学硕士学位论文,2004-12.
[5] L.K.Tong.Risk Assessment on Engineering Construction[J].Construction Economics and Management,2003:56-59.
[6] HuajunLi,JmaesHu.Tuned Mass Damper Design for Optimally Minimizing fatigue Damage[J].Engineering Mechanics,ASCE,2002,128(6):703-708.
[7] R.G.Beaetal.Comparative Risk Assessmen to Alternative TLP System:Structure and Foundation Aspect[J].OMAE,1994,116:86-96.
[8] Sterling G.H.Analysis of the Pile Foundation System for a North Sea Drilling Platform,Behaviour of offshore Struetures[C].Proceedings of the 3rd Intemational Conference,1982:3-5.
[9] HSE.“Reducing Risks,Protecting People”,Discussion Document[S].Health & Safety Executive,1999:114-120.
[10] NPD.Regulations Relating to Implementation and Use of Risk Analysis in the Petroleum Activities[S].Norwegian petroleum Directorate,1990:11-17.
[11] NPD.Regulations Relating to Explosion and Fire Protection of Installations in the Petroleum Activities[S].Norwegian Petroleum Directorate,1992:44-46.
[12] NTS.Regularity Management and Reliability Technology.NORSOK Standard Z-016,1999:27-29.
[13] Jna Erik Vinnem.Offshore Risk Assessment (Principles,Modelling and Application of QRA Studies)[M].Kluwer Academic Publishers,1999:201-209.
[14] UKOOA.Piper Alpha-A History [M].Britain,Health and Safety Index,1999:10-15.
[15] NTS.Risk And Emergeney Preparedness Analyisis[S].NORSOK Standard Z-013,1998,1:63-68.
[16] HSE.“The Costs of Accidents at Work”,HSE96[S].Health and Safety Executive, HSE Books,Sudbury,UK.
[17]吕秀艳,刘德辅,牟善军.极端海况下海洋石油结构的风险评估[J].中国安全科学学报,2004,12:32-36.
[18]初京义.石油天然气勘探开发项目风险分析及应对策略[D].天津大学硕士学位论文,2005-5.
[19]张贵清.因子分析方法在国际石油勘探开发项目风险分析中的应用探讨[J].数字石油和化工,2007,9:58-61.
[20]郭鹏.海外油气项目的资金风险与规避[J].国际经济合作,2008,11:72-73.
[21]臧子东.国际石油工程项目风险管理问题及对策研究[J].齐齐哈尔大学学报,2009,5:30-32.
[22]明洪盛.国际石油合作项目中的政治风险分析及管理[J].当代经济,2009(11):66-68.
[23]张强.我国石油企业跨国经营风险防范对策研究[D].中国石油大学硕士学位论文,2010-4.
[24]王定亚,丁莉萍.海洋钻井平台技术现状与发展趋[J].石油机械,2010,38(4):69-72.
[25]李晓冬,刘德辅,吕秀艳等.基于重点抽样法的固定式平台结构风险评价研究[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2006,1:161-167.
[26]胜利石油管理局,青岛海洋大学工程学院.渤海油气田风、浪、流、潮及其荷载联合概率研究报告,2000,10.
[27]王晓燕.海洋工程的安全风险评估[J].山东科学,2005,5(18):43-47.
[28]秦文刚,宋艺,张作起.海洋石油勘探开发项目风险分析[J].中国造船(增刊),2006,47:14-20.
[29]李奇,牟善军等.海上石油平台定量风险评估[J].中国海洋平台,2007,6:38-42.
[30]王希华.海洋石油工程的风险管理及预防[J].中国造船(增刊),2008,49:676-679.
[31]潘大新,霍有利.海上油气田工程油气泄漏事故风险分析[J].海洋环境科学,2009,4:426-429.
[32]崔源,郑国栋.海上石油设施溢油风险管理与防控研究[J].油气田环境保护,2010,20(1):29-32.
[33]宋朝霞.国际海洋石油工程项目风险分析[D].天津大学硕士学位论文,2007-4.
[34]刘钧.风险管理概论[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2005:18-23.
[35] Peter R Rose.Risk and Management of Petroleum Exploration Ventures[M].AAPG Methods in Exploration Series,2001:12.
[36] A.K.Wojtanowicz.Environmental Technology in the Oil Industry[M].Springer Netherlands,2007:123-154.
[37] Roger Miller . Understanding and managing risks in large engineering projects[J].International Project Management,2001,19:32-45.
[38]侯贵卿,卢鸿.国际石油合作在中国海洋石油资源开发利用中的作用[J].海洋地质动态,1998,10:5-7.
[39]罗佐县.我国海洋油气生产对外合作现状及展望[J].化学工业,2009,27(7):23-29.
[40]满学杰.中国首次涉足海洋石油国际风险[J].勘探中国化工报,2000,1:34-36.
[41]胡艳妮.工程项目风险识别与分析方法探讨[J].现代商贸工业,2010,21,46-47.
[42]武乾,武增海,李慧民.工程项目风险评价方法研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2006,4(2):258-262.
[43]田岚.石油天然气钻井工程风险识别与评价方法[J].钻采工艺,2010,33(2):31-33.
[44]冯宁.大型工程项目风险评价指标体系的构建[J].基建优化,2007,12(6):48-50.
[45]王礼茂,方叶兵.国家石油安全评估指标体系的构建[J].自然资源学报,2008,9(5):821-831.
[46]窦红波.中国石油公司海外经营风险管理体系建设初探[J].国际石油经济,2008,8:20-26.
[47]吴继侠.我国石油企业跨国经营的风险分析[J].徐州师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2007,5:106-110.
[48]余建星,田佳,谭振东.深水平台施工过程自然风险定量评估[J].自然灾害学报,2007,2(16):113-118.
[49]陈忠民,潘校华,黄先雄.北非库弗腊盆地油气成藏条件及地质风险初探[J].石油勘探和开发,2007,4(34):252-256.
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