新疆准噶尔盆地风城油砂矿床详细经济评价
|
摘要
矿床详细经济评价是在矿床地质评价的基础上,根据矿床的技术条件和经济条件,对探明矿产储量在未来一定时期内进行工业开发的经济效益所做的预估。矿床技术经济评价对于矿床地质勘查、矿山设计建设和开发,都有着十分重要的实际意义[1]。
本论文旨在通过对风城油砂矿进行详细经济评价来得出一个能使技术与经济达到最佳结合的方案。在详细分析了风城油砂矿区地质特征,根据矿床所处的详勘阶段的特点,确定了储量计算方法及参数指标,分别计算了不同矿段的不同矿体的储量并与国资储批准的储量进行了对比验证,为经济评价提供准确的依据。本文从当前的原油产品市场形势出发,通过分析矿区外部建设条件和现有矿山现实可行的采选技术条件,结合水洗工艺,设计了矿山建设开发的方案。文中运用了技术经济评价中常用的净现值法和内部收益率法等动态评价方法,分别计算了净现值、内部收益率和投资回收期等重要经济效益指标,经分析比较后认为风城油砂矿的开发在经济上是可行的,并随着油价的攀升,经济效益会有明显上升趋势。考虑到方案对原油价格变化等因素的抗风险性,对风城油砂矿进行了单参数敏感性分析[2],即在总投资、销售价格、出油效率、剥采比等指标中,对其中一项指标分别上涨和下降一定比例时,经济效益的变化幅度,得出了各项指标所受影响处于可控范围之内。
文章最后对风城油砂矿进行了综合评价,认为该矿地理位置和交通条件优越,开采条件简单,具备有利的地质成矿前景和资源潜力,在其现行水洗技术条件下,将会获得可观的经济效益。
Detailed economic evaluation for ore deposits is, based ongeological appraisal according to the technical and economic conditions, a kind of economy profit estimation for a certain indicated ore deposit which is going to be mined for industry development.
This kind of technical and economic evaluation for ore deposits is of significance to geological survey and mine designing as well as development. This paper aims to find out an optimized schedule for Fengcheng Oil-sands Mine through detailed technical and economic evaluation for ore deposit. we analysis the geological characteristics of the Fengcheng Oil-sands, based on deposits in which the characteristics of detailed exploration stage to determine the reserves of the calculation method and parameters ,we calculated by a different section and different mining ore reserves and compared to state-owned assets with the approval of the Reserve reserves verify, in order to provide the basis for accurate economic evaluation. Beginning from introducing the location and local economical conditions of Fengcheng Oil-sands, this article analysis the geological features and then specifys major indexes such as grade and reserve as well as market situation of oil nowadays, and Combination of washing process designing the development program. Cash Flow and Inner Return Rate are adopted in this paper to calculate important indexes such as investment interest rate, investment return period, net present value and inner return rate, and to analysis and comparison by the Fengcheng oil-sands that the development of oil sands is economi??y feasible, and as oil prices rise, there will be more economic benefits. Considering the risk-resist ability of these schedules they may encounter, sensitive analysis is carried out to estimate those indexes and it is indicated that every index is within the controllable limits.
Finally, this paper indicates that Fengcheng Oil-sands will be very profitable in employing water scrubbing due to its convenient location and transportation conditions plus the favorable metallogenic setting.
本论文旨在通过对风城油砂矿进行详细经济评价来得出一个能使技术与经济达到最佳结合的方案。在详细分析了风城油砂矿区地质特征,根据矿床所处的详勘阶段的特点,确定了储量计算方法及参数指标,分别计算了不同矿段的不同矿体的储量并与国资储批准的储量进行了对比验证,为经济评价提供准确的依据。本文从当前的原油产品市场形势出发,通过分析矿区外部建设条件和现有矿山现实可行的采选技术条件,结合水洗工艺,设计了矿山建设开发的方案。文中运用了技术经济评价中常用的净现值法和内部收益率法等动态评价方法,分别计算了净现值、内部收益率和投资回收期等重要经济效益指标,经分析比较后认为风城油砂矿的开发在经济上是可行的,并随着油价的攀升,经济效益会有明显上升趋势。考虑到方案对原油价格变化等因素的抗风险性,对风城油砂矿进行了单参数敏感性分析[2],即在总投资、销售价格、出油效率、剥采比等指标中,对其中一项指标分别上涨和下降一定比例时,经济效益的变化幅度,得出了各项指标所受影响处于可控范围之内。
文章最后对风城油砂矿进行了综合评价,认为该矿地理位置和交通条件优越,开采条件简单,具备有利的地质成矿前景和资源潜力,在其现行水洗技术条件下,将会获得可观的经济效益。
Detailed economic evaluation for ore deposits is, based ongeological appraisal according to the technical and economic conditions, a kind of economy profit estimation for a certain indicated ore deposit which is going to be mined for industry development.
This kind of technical and economic evaluation for ore deposits is of significance to geological survey and mine designing as well as development. This paper aims to find out an optimized schedule for Fengcheng Oil-sands Mine through detailed technical and economic evaluation for ore deposit. we analysis the geological characteristics of the Fengcheng Oil-sands, based on deposits in which the characteristics of detailed exploration stage to determine the reserves of the calculation method and parameters ,we calculated by a different section and different mining ore reserves and compared to state-owned assets with the approval of the Reserve reserves verify, in order to provide the basis for accurate economic evaluation. Beginning from introducing the location and local economical conditions of Fengcheng Oil-sands, this article analysis the geological features and then specifys major indexes such as grade and reserve as well as market situation of oil nowadays, and Combination of washing process designing the development program. Cash Flow and Inner Return Rate are adopted in this paper to calculate important indexes such as investment interest rate, investment return period, net present value and inner return rate, and to analysis and comparison by the Fengcheng oil-sands that the development of oil sands is economi??y feasible, and as oil prices rise, there will be more economic benefits. Considering the risk-resist ability of these schedules they may encounter, sensitive analysis is carried out to estimate those indexes and it is indicated that every index is within the controllable limits.
Finally, this paper indicates that Fengcheng Oil-sands will be very profitable in employing water scrubbing due to its convenient location and transportation conditions plus the favorable metallogenic setting.
引文
[1]关德师,牛嘉玉等.中国非常规油气地质[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1995.
[2]周惠珍.项目可行性研究与经济评价[M].北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.
[3]陈甲斌.中国石油市场形势分析[J].天然气技术,2000,1(2):20-24.
[4] Jialin Qian, et al.Final Report of the Technical Panel on Oil Shale and Tar Sands [C].UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY北京:石油工业出版社,1981.
[5] A.C.Hall,A.H.Collins,et al.Stability of Aqueous Wetting Films in Athabasca Tar Sands [C].SPE1995,J:249.
[6]刘文章,等.第四届国际重油及油砂会议论文选译[R].中国石油天然气总公司情报研所,1989.
[7]刘虹强,孙燕,拜文华等.新疆准噶尔盆地风城油砂矿成因研究[J].中国地质,2008,35(6):08-14
[8]塔伊尔,何江成等.生态农业在克拉玛依农业中的应用[J].石河子学报,2004,1(01):08-14
[9]关德师,陈新,牛嘉玉等.准噶尔盆地西北缘地表油砂调查及开采可行性研究[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1990.
[10]张鹏.准噶尔盆地西北缘乌夏地区成岩作用于储层研究[D].北京:中国石油大学,2004.
[11]臧春燕,单玄龙等.准噶尔盆地西北缘中生代油砂分布特征及开发前景[J].世界地质,2006,25(1):50-53
[12]郑浚茂,庞明.碎屑储集岩成岩作用研究[M].武汉:中国地质大学出版社,1989:77-79.
[13]王屿涛,蒋少斌.准噶尔盆地西北缘稠油分布的地质规律及成因探讨[J].石油勘探与开发,1998,25(5):18-23.
[14]曲江秀,邱贻博,时振峰,准噶尔盆地西北缘乌夏断裂带断裂活动与油气运聚[J].新疆石油地质,2007, 28(4):45-48.
[15]何登发,尹成,杜社宽.前陆冲断带构造分段特征-以准噶尔盆地西北缘断裂构造例为例[J].地学前缘(中国地质大学,北京),2004;11(3):95-98
[16]吴元燕,平俊彪,吕修祥,等.准噶尔盆地西北缘油气藏保存及破坏定量研究[J].石油学报,2002,2(36):24-28
[17]周文,邓虎成,伊海生等.西藏羌塘盆地侏罗系白云岩储层??砂资源评价[J].矿物岩石,2007,27(4):86-91
[18]陈业全,王伟锋.噶尔盆地构造演化与油气成藏特征[J].石油大学学报(自然科学版),2004,28(3):5-7
[19]陈新,牛嘉玉,等.准噶尔盆地西北缘地表油砂调查及开采可行性研究[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1990.
[20]雷振宇,鲁兵,蔚远江.准噶尔盆地西北缘构造演化与扇体形成和分布[J].石油与天然气地质.2005,26(1):86-89
[21]姜在兴.沉积学[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2003:59-86,164-169,257-408
[22]赵澄林.沉积学原理[M].石油工业出版社,2001:22-94
[23]王良忱,张金亮.沉积环境和沉积相[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1996:15-23,176-189
[24]赵澄林,朱筱敏.沉积岩石学[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2001:106-272
[25]赵鹏大,池顺都,李志德等.矿产勘查理论与方法[M].第一版.北京:中国地质大学出版社,2001.
[26]柳永行,范耀华.石油沥青[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2002
[27] Qian J.L.Study on Preparation of asphalt with special uses from Chinese tar sands[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology,2000,18(5&6):857-872
[28]戚俊.工程地质及水文地质[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,1996
[29]霍崇仁.水文地质学[M].北京:水利水电出版社,1989
[30] Awad,Mohamed,Naim,Gaber,Strategic Using Oil Shale as a Fuel for Thermal Power Generation[C].Fuels of the Future,18th,Congress, Buenos Aires, 2001
[31]国土资源部储量司,矿产资源储量计算方法汇编[G].北京:地质出版社,2000,4
[32]王友文,舒庆仁,等.矿床技术经济评价[M].西安:地矿区测绘队出版,1987
[33]采矿设计手册编委会,采矿设计手册[G].北京:冶金工业出版社,1988
[34]选矿设计手册编委会,选矿设计手册[G].北京:冶金工业出版社,1988
[35]中国矿业学院,露天采矿手册[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,1987
[36] P. H. Mortier,利用选矿方法处理Athabasea油砂[C],第十届世界石油大会报告论文集,罗马尼亚:1979.
[37]国土资源部,固体矿产地质勘查规范总则(GB/T13908-2002),2002
[38]任建国.用普通克立格法计算永平??床储量[J].矿产与地质,2001,15(8):69-72
[39]刘吉余,隋新光,于润涛.地质储量精细计算方法研究[J].海洋地质动态,2003,19(9):31-34
[40]李万亨,傅鸣珂,杨昌明,等.矿产经济与管理[M].武汉:中国地质大学出版社,2000
[41]舒晓兰,孙燕,肖渊甫,等.四川省会理县拉拉铜矿床采矿权评估[D].成都:成都理工大学,2007
[42] McRory,Robert.:Oil Sands and Heavy Oils of Alberta. Alberta Energy and Natural Resources[J]. Energy Heritage ,1982
[43]丁志忠.矿产资源资产产权评估理论与方法的有关问题探讨[J].资源产业,2003,5(3:49-54)
[44]成岚.山东谢家沟金矿床详细技术经济评价[D].北京:中国地质大学,2006
[45]李万亨.矿山建设项目可行性研究及经济评价[M].武汉:地质出版社,1997,13-36
[46]向永生.金矿资源矿业权评估理论与方法研究[D].北京:北京科技大学,2000
[47]李万享.矿床技术经济评价的理论与方法[M].武汉:地质出版社, 1989
[48] Tao shu ren.Methoodology of Economic Assessment for Mining Industry Right.The 3rd international Conference on Management.Shanghai.1998,7.
[49] Sani.E.The role of Weighted Average Cost of Capital in evaluating a mining venture.MiningEnginecring.1977(3).
[50] NIUJia yu,HuJian yi.Formation and distribution of heavy oil and tar sands in China(J).Marineand Petroleum Geology,1999,16(1):85-95
[51] Masters,JohnA. Deep basin gas traps,Western Canada.AAPG Bulletin,1979,34(2):152-181
[52] McRory,Robert. Energy Heritage:Oil Sands and Heavy Oils of Alberta. Alberta Energy and Natural Resources. Edmonton,1982
[53] Faulkner TW.Applying Option Thinking to and Valuation,Research-Technology Management,1996:50-56
[2]周惠珍.项目可行性研究与经济评价[M].北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.
[3]陈甲斌.中国石油市场形势分析[J].天然气技术,2000,1(2):20-24.
[4] Jialin Qian, et al.Final Report of the Technical Panel on Oil Shale and Tar Sands [C].UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY北京:石油工业出版社,1981.
[5] A.C.Hall,A.H.Collins,et al.Stability of Aqueous Wetting Films in Athabasca Tar Sands [C].SPE1995,J:249.
[6]刘文章,等.第四届国际重油及油砂会议论文选译[R].中国石油天然气总公司情报研所,1989.
[7]刘虹强,孙燕,拜文华等.新疆准噶尔盆地风城油砂矿成因研究[J].中国地质,2008,35(6):08-14
[8]塔伊尔,何江成等.生态农业在克拉玛依农业中的应用[J].石河子学报,2004,1(01):08-14
[9]关德师,陈新,牛嘉玉等.准噶尔盆地西北缘地表油砂调查及开采可行性研究[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1990.
[10]张鹏.准噶尔盆地西北缘乌夏地区成岩作用于储层研究[D].北京:中国石油大学,2004.
[11]臧春燕,单玄龙等.准噶尔盆地西北缘中生代油砂分布特征及开发前景[J].世界地质,2006,25(1):50-53
[12]郑浚茂,庞明.碎屑储集岩成岩作用研究[M].武汉:中国地质大学出版社,1989:77-79.
[13]王屿涛,蒋少斌.准噶尔盆地西北缘稠油分布的地质规律及成因探讨[J].石油勘探与开发,1998,25(5):18-23.
[14]曲江秀,邱贻博,时振峰,准噶尔盆地西北缘乌夏断裂带断裂活动与油气运聚[J].新疆石油地质,2007, 28(4):45-48.
[15]何登发,尹成,杜社宽.前陆冲断带构造分段特征-以准噶尔盆地西北缘断裂构造例为例[J].地学前缘(中国地质大学,北京),2004;11(3):95-98
[16]吴元燕,平俊彪,吕修祥,等.准噶尔盆地西北缘油气藏保存及破坏定量研究[J].石油学报,2002,2(36):24-28
[17]周文,邓虎成,伊海生等.西藏羌塘盆地侏罗系白云岩储层??砂资源评价[J].矿物岩石,2007,27(4):86-91
[18]陈业全,王伟锋.噶尔盆地构造演化与油气成藏特征[J].石油大学学报(自然科学版),2004,28(3):5-7
[19]陈新,牛嘉玉,等.准噶尔盆地西北缘地表油砂调查及开采可行性研究[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1990.
[20]雷振宇,鲁兵,蔚远江.准噶尔盆地西北缘构造演化与扇体形成和分布[J].石油与天然气地质.2005,26(1):86-89
[21]姜在兴.沉积学[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2003:59-86,164-169,257-408
[22]赵澄林.沉积学原理[M].石油工业出版社,2001:22-94
[23]王良忱,张金亮.沉积环境和沉积相[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1996:15-23,176-189
[24]赵澄林,朱筱敏.沉积岩石学[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2001:106-272
[25]赵鹏大,池顺都,李志德等.矿产勘查理论与方法[M].第一版.北京:中国地质大学出版社,2001.
[26]柳永行,范耀华.石油沥青[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2002
[27] Qian J.L.Study on Preparation of asphalt with special uses from Chinese tar sands[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology,2000,18(5&6):857-872
[28]戚俊.工程地质及水文地质[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,1996
[29]霍崇仁.水文地质学[M].北京:水利水电出版社,1989
[30] Awad,Mohamed,Naim,Gaber,Strategic Using Oil Shale as a Fuel for Thermal Power Generation[C].Fuels of the Future,18th,Congress, Buenos Aires, 2001
[31]国土资源部储量司,矿产资源储量计算方法汇编[G].北京:地质出版社,2000,4
[32]王友文,舒庆仁,等.矿床技术经济评价[M].西安:地矿区测绘队出版,1987
[33]采矿设计手册编委会,采矿设计手册[G].北京:冶金工业出版社,1988
[34]选矿设计手册编委会,选矿设计手册[G].北京:冶金工业出版社,1988
[35]中国矿业学院,露天采矿手册[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,1987
[36] P. H. Mortier,利用选矿方法处理Athabasea油砂[C],第十届世界石油大会报告论文集,罗马尼亚:1979.
[37]国土资源部,固体矿产地质勘查规范总则(GB/T13908-2002),2002
[38]任建国.用普通克立格法计算永平??床储量[J].矿产与地质,2001,15(8):69-72
[39]刘吉余,隋新光,于润涛.地质储量精细计算方法研究[J].海洋地质动态,2003,19(9):31-34
[40]李万亨,傅鸣珂,杨昌明,等.矿产经济与管理[M].武汉:中国地质大学出版社,2000
[41]舒晓兰,孙燕,肖渊甫,等.四川省会理县拉拉铜矿床采矿权评估[D].成都:成都理工大学,2007
[42] McRory,Robert.:Oil Sands and Heavy Oils of Alberta. Alberta Energy and Natural Resources[J]. Energy Heritage ,1982
[43]丁志忠.矿产资源资产产权评估理论与方法的有关问题探讨[J].资源产业,2003,5(3:49-54)
[44]成岚.山东谢家沟金矿床详细技术经济评价[D].北京:中国地质大学,2006
[45]李万亨.矿山建设项目可行性研究及经济评价[M].武汉:地质出版社,1997,13-36
[46]向永生.金矿资源矿业权评估理论与方法研究[D].北京:北京科技大学,2000
[47]李万享.矿床技术经济评价的理论与方法[M].武汉:地质出版社, 1989
[48] Tao shu ren.Methoodology of Economic Assessment for Mining Industry Right.The 3rd international Conference on Management.Shanghai.1998,7.
[49] Sani.E.The role of Weighted Average Cost of Capital in evaluating a mining venture.MiningEnginecring.1977(3).
[50] NIUJia yu,HuJian yi.Formation and distribution of heavy oil and tar sands in China(J).Marineand Petroleum Geology,1999,16(1):85-95
[51] Masters,JohnA. Deep basin gas traps,Western Canada.AAPG Bulletin,1979,34(2):152-181
[52] McRory,Robert. Energy Heritage:Oil Sands and Heavy Oils of Alberta. Alberta Energy and Natural Resources. Edmonton,1982
[53] Faulkner TW.Applying Option Thinking to and Valuation,Research-Technology Management,1996:50-56