中国养老保险扩面问题及对策研究
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摘要
扩大覆盖面是当前养老保险改革的重点任务，根据ILO的数据，2008年我国养老保险覆盖率只25.4%，世界银行报告(2010年)认为，虽然过去几年中国养老保险覆盖面在不断扩大，但它们仍然严重集中在城镇地区的正式部门，过低的覆盖面使中国养老保险制度公平性以及可持续性受到质疑。十七大明确提出，到2020年基本建立覆盖城乡居民的社会保障体系，而2010年出台《社会保险法》将农村地区的乡镇企业、农村私营企业、农村个体工商户等农村雇工纳入基本养老保险应参保范围；这表明我国社会保障开始由城镇为主向城乡统筹、由职工向居民的重大转变。本文在比较世界主要国家养老保险制度与发展水平的基础上，分析各国养老保险制度优缺点与改革成功经验，文章从养老保险制度碎片化、参保结构不合理和财务可持续性三个角度描述了目前我国养老保险制度发展中面临的主要问题，并从收入差距、人口老龄化、历史遗留问题、制度设计等方面寻找当前导致养老保险扩面难与财务风险的主要原因。基于我国目前基本养老保险和城乡居民养老保险的制度模式，文章从参保人的角度出发，采用保险精算模型构建了参保人的参保模型，并模拟了各种政策参保对参保人参保行为的影响。之后，基于城镇居民入户调查数据和社会经济宏观统计数据，文章用计量经济学方法对参保人参保行为的影响因素以及中国养老保险扩面难的原因进行了实证研究。然后，文章在对未来人口老龄化进行预测基础上，对基本养老保险可能面临的财务风险进行了评估，并模拟了不同扩面方案对养老保险基金收支的影响。文章最后在借鉴国外养老保险制度框架基础上，提出我国养老保险制度设计的目标架构，并提出了当前养老保险制度改革的相关政策建议。
本文研究的主要结论包括：①通过构建了基本养老保险和城乡居民养老保险参保模型，文章依据我国最新的基本养老保险和城乡居民养老保险政策，采用保险精算方法构建养老保险参保模型，通过对参保人的行为分析，研究了参保年龄、收入水平等个体特征，以及缴费比率、退休年龄、个人账户记账比例、个人账户记账利率等政策因素对养老保险制度吸引力可能产生的效应。研究认为，目前职工基本养老保险制度吸引力不够，如果采用完全自愿参保方式，未来基本养老保险的扩面存在较大障碍；而城乡居民养老保险设计存在较大的制度性不公平，现有制度对于大龄参保人员较有吸引力，但年青人吸引力不够，不利于养老保险基金的积累以及化解未来老龄化的养老问题。②从结构性矛盾、制度碎片化以及财务可持续性等方面分析了养老保险扩面的主要挑战，并从总结了扩面难的原因，包括：收入差距、人口老龄化、历史遗留问题、制度设计本身缺陷以及不顺畅的政府财政关系等。③对影响养老保险参保行为的因素从微观和宏观两个视角进行了分析与解释。通过入户调查方式收集的一手资料及实证研究结果表明，年龄、收入水平是决定居民是否参加养老保险最重要因素；而基于宏观的统计数据进行的实证研究表明，养老保险覆盖率主要受经济发展水平与收入差距的影响。④基于人口普查数据，在对未来人口老龄化趋势进行预测的基础上，采用养老保险精算模型，对未来养老保险基金收支进行预测，研究发现，如果不考虑财政资金补助的变化，未来基金收不抵支的趋势将不可避免；但如果不考虑工资增长，在2010年～2050年期间不会出现支付风险，在2030年之前所积累的养老保险基金将足以抵抗2050年之间的支付压力。⑤借鉴国内已有的研究和国外其它国家经验，提出改按人群分类为按缴费能力与待遇分类的二元养老保障体系。同时针对目前养老保险现实问题，提出了具体的政策建议。
Expanding the current pension coverage is the key tasks. The ILO data indicatethat China's pension coverage is25.4%in2008. The World Bank (2010) report that,although China's pension coverage continues to grow in the past few years, but they stillconcentrated in the formal sector in urban. Low coverage of the Chinese pension maketo the problem of fairness and sustainability. Seventh session of the National People'sCongress made it clear that establish social security system in2020covering urban andrural. The "Social Insurance Law" requests that, the basic pension insurance willcoverage the rural private enterprises, individual businesses and other rural workersinfuture. It’s the show that, China's social security coverage is changing from the urbanto rural, from the staff to the residents.This paper compares the world's major nationalpension insurance system design and development level. We learn the successfulexperience of foreign pension insurance system. Based on current urban and ruralresident’s pension insurance system, we build the basic pension insurance and resident’spension insurance participating model. The article simulates how the policies influencethe insured person behavior by the insured person's insured behavior model. After that,the article describes the current problems of China's pension system facing by the anglesof system fragmentation, structure irrational and the financial sustainability. The majorresons includes income gap, aging population, historical legacy, system design, etc.Based on urban household survey data and macro-economic statistics data, the articleexplains the pension paticipator’s behavior bye the empirical study. Then, the articleevaluate the financial risks of the basic pension insurance in future by predicted theaging population scale, and simulate the consequencd of extending the coverage.In theend of this article, we suggest to build a new pension insurance system framework bylearned the foreing experience.
The main conclusions of this study include:①The paper construct the basicpension insurance and resident pension insurance insured behavior model. Based on ourlatest pension insurance policies, the article analysis the behavior regular of the insuredpersons. It also reseach how the individual characteristics (such as age, income level etal) and policy factors (such as the proportion of individual billing accounts, personalaccounts interest rates, pension replace metn ratio, et al) influence the insured behavior.The studies suggest that the current basic pension insurance system is lack of attraction. The pension insurance is difficult to expand in the voluntary insured model. And there isunfair of urban and rural residents pension insurance, because the younger insuredperson is impaired to the older indsured peron. The system will reject the accumulationof pension funds and the solution of aging population problem.②the article analyzespension insurance facing challenge to expanding the coverage from the structuralcontradictions, the system fragmentation, and the financial sustainability. And find thesummary reasons of the difficulty, including the income gap, aging population,historical debt, the system design flawed and the irrational Government's relations.③Analysis the reasons of pension insured person behavioral by the household survey onthe impact of micro and macro perspectives. The expirical study shows that, the age,income level determine whether people to participate in pension insurance. But theeconomic development and income gap.is the mainly affected fators to the micropension coverage by the statistical data study.④The article predict the trend ofpopulation aging by the census data. Used the pension actuarial model, we forecast t thepension fund income and expenditure. The fund deficit is unavoidable in future. But itwill not generate the payment risk if the wage not growth in2010-2050. Theaccumulated pension fund is capable of prevent the deficit in2030-2050.⑤The articlepropose a new pension insurance system by learning the domestic and foreignexperience. The new binary pension insurance system changes the insured personclassify from identity to the affordability. Finally, the article proposes many suggestsimproving the pension insurance system and offers the solutions to realize the goal.
本文研究的主要结论包括：①通过构建了基本养老保险和城乡居民养老保险参保模型，文章依据我国最新的基本养老保险和城乡居民养老保险政策，采用保险精算方法构建养老保险参保模型，通过对参保人的行为分析，研究了参保年龄、收入水平等个体特征，以及缴费比率、退休年龄、个人账户记账比例、个人账户记账利率等政策因素对养老保险制度吸引力可能产生的效应。研究认为，目前职工基本养老保险制度吸引力不够，如果采用完全自愿参保方式，未来基本养老保险的扩面存在较大障碍；而城乡居民养老保险设计存在较大的制度性不公平，现有制度对于大龄参保人员较有吸引力，但年青人吸引力不够，不利于养老保险基金的积累以及化解未来老龄化的养老问题。②从结构性矛盾、制度碎片化以及财务可持续性等方面分析了养老保险扩面的主要挑战，并从总结了扩面难的原因，包括：收入差距、人口老龄化、历史遗留问题、制度设计本身缺陷以及不顺畅的政府财政关系等。③对影响养老保险参保行为的因素从微观和宏观两个视角进行了分析与解释。通过入户调查方式收集的一手资料及实证研究结果表明，年龄、收入水平是决定居民是否参加养老保险最重要因素；而基于宏观的统计数据进行的实证研究表明，养老保险覆盖率主要受经济发展水平与收入差距的影响。④基于人口普查数据，在对未来人口老龄化趋势进行预测的基础上，采用养老保险精算模型，对未来养老保险基金收支进行预测，研究发现，如果不考虑财政资金补助的变化，未来基金收不抵支的趋势将不可避免；但如果不考虑工资增长，在2010年～2050年期间不会出现支付风险，在2030年之前所积累的养老保险基金将足以抵抗2050年之间的支付压力。⑤借鉴国内已有的研究和国外其它国家经验，提出改按人群分类为按缴费能力与待遇分类的二元养老保障体系。同时针对目前养老保险现实问题，提出了具体的政策建议。
Expanding the current pension coverage is the key tasks. The ILO data indicatethat China's pension coverage is25.4%in2008. The World Bank (2010) report that,although China's pension coverage continues to grow in the past few years, but they stillconcentrated in the formal sector in urban. Low coverage of the Chinese pension maketo the problem of fairness and sustainability. Seventh session of the National People'sCongress made it clear that establish social security system in2020covering urban andrural. The "Social Insurance Law" requests that, the basic pension insurance willcoverage the rural private enterprises, individual businesses and other rural workersinfuture. It’s the show that, China's social security coverage is changing from the urbanto rural, from the staff to the residents.This paper compares the world's major nationalpension insurance system design and development level. We learn the successfulexperience of foreign pension insurance system. Based on current urban and ruralresident’s pension insurance system, we build the basic pension insurance and resident’spension insurance participating model. The article simulates how the policies influencethe insured person behavior by the insured person's insured behavior model. After that,the article describes the current problems of China's pension system facing by the anglesof system fragmentation, structure irrational and the financial sustainability. The majorresons includes income gap, aging population, historical legacy, system design, etc.Based on urban household survey data and macro-economic statistics data, the articleexplains the pension paticipator’s behavior bye the empirical study. Then, the articleevaluate the financial risks of the basic pension insurance in future by predicted theaging population scale, and simulate the consequencd of extending the coverage.In theend of this article, we suggest to build a new pension insurance system framework bylearned the foreing experience.
The main conclusions of this study include:①The paper construct the basicpension insurance and resident pension insurance insured behavior model. Based on ourlatest pension insurance policies, the article analysis the behavior regular of the insuredpersons. It also reseach how the individual characteristics (such as age, income level etal) and policy factors (such as the proportion of individual billing accounts, personalaccounts interest rates, pension replace metn ratio, et al) influence the insured behavior.The studies suggest that the current basic pension insurance system is lack of attraction. The pension insurance is difficult to expand in the voluntary insured model. And there isunfair of urban and rural residents pension insurance, because the younger insuredperson is impaired to the older indsured peron. The system will reject the accumulationof pension funds and the solution of aging population problem.②the article analyzespension insurance facing challenge to expanding the coverage from the structuralcontradictions, the system fragmentation, and the financial sustainability. And find thesummary reasons of the difficulty, including the income gap, aging population,historical debt, the system design flawed and the irrational Government's relations.③Analysis the reasons of pension insured person behavioral by the household survey onthe impact of micro and macro perspectives. The expirical study shows that, the age,income level determine whether people to participate in pension insurance. But theeconomic development and income gap.is the mainly affected fators to the micropension coverage by the statistical data study.④The article predict the trend ofpopulation aging by the census data. Used the pension actuarial model, we forecast t thepension fund income and expenditure. The fund deficit is unavoidable in future. But itwill not generate the payment risk if the wage not growth in2010-2050. Theaccumulated pension fund is capable of prevent the deficit in2030-2050.⑤The articlepropose a new pension insurance system by learning the domestic and foreignexperience. The new binary pension insurance system changes the insured personclassify from identity to the affordability. Finally, the article proposes many suggestsimproving the pension insurance system and offers the solutions to realize the goal.
引文
①刘晓梅：《中国农村养老保险理论与实务研究》，科学出版社，2010年。
①于毕小龙：《中国社会养老保险制度》，暨南大学出版社，2009年。
①毕小龙：《中国社会养老保险制度》，暨南大学出版社，2009年。
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