伊朗核问题中的强制性外交研究
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摘要
伊朗核问题是当前国际安全的热点问题之一,它反映了国际、地区与国家单元三个层次上的矛盾。国际社会希望维护国际安全以及国际核不扩散机制的权威性,要求伊朗遵守《不扩散核武器条约》及附加议定书,保障其核计划的和平性质。大多数中东地区国家一方面理解伊朗核能诉求,但也唯恐伊朗核计划可能被用于军事目的,利用伊朗核问题,争相发展核计划。伊朗核问题集中反映了伊朗与美国的矛盾与冲突。美国强烈要求伊朗暂停浓缩铀活动,甚至终止核计划,唯恐伊朗核问题影响中东安全及国际安全,危及美国全球战略以及在中东地区的安全利益。
强制性外交是强制方为管理和解决国际冲突采取的主要形式之一。强制性外交指强制方以外交谈判为主要手段,不排除武力威胁,要求对手采取行动,改变政策。它不仅强调外交手段协商协调,缓和国际冲突的功能,而且强调其胁迫对手,使国际冲突升级的功能。强制方甚至以武力威胁促进外交,迫使对手满足强制方的外交要求,否则将可能遭受严重惩罚。强制性外交要求强制方具有明确的战略目标,拥有实现战略目标的实力,限制对手满足条件的时间,保持双方信息沟通,及时评估强制性外交的效果并做好后续行动的准备。它主要表现为强制方向对手提出外交要求,进行制裁劝诱,增强威胁力度,并可能诉诸最后通牒。
在伊朗核问题上,不仅存在美国对伊朗实施的强制性外交,而且存在伊朗对美国的反强制性外交,美国与伊朗形成了相互强制的状态。由于美国与伊朗没有恢复外交关系,美国对伊朗的强制性外交具有强烈的延伸性特点,主要表现为制裁与劝诱、武力威胁、外交强制与最后通牒。伊朗对美国实施的反强制性外交体现了小国对大国不对等强制的特点,主要表现为制裁反制、威胁反制、外交反制与最后通牒。
在伊朗核问题上,由于美国与伊朗在综合实力对比、外交决策效率、争取国际社会支持以及安全威胁认知方面存在差别,美国逐渐赢得了主动,争取到了国际合法性,促进联合国安理会多次通过了制裁伊朗的决议。然而,伊朗坚持根据《不扩散核武器条约》所享有的和平利用核技术的权利,拒绝停止浓缩铀活动。这一定程度上验证了强制性外交的四个理论假设：第一,综合实力越强,强制性外交成功的可能性越大；第二,外交决策机制越民主的行为体,实施强制性外交的连贯性就越强,强制性外交成功的可能性就越大；第三,国际社会的支持度越大,强制方行为的国际合法性越强,强制性外交成功的可能性就越大；第四,感受到的安全威胁越大,强制方实施强制性外交的政治意愿就可能越强,但强制性外交成功的可能性就越小
在伊朗核问题上,强制性外交主要存在三种分析模式：挑战—应对模式有助于分析美国与伊朗相互实施强制性外交以及伊朗核问题升级与缓和的原因与过程。理性选择模式有助于分析伊朗核问题过程中相关各方成本—收益核算的原因与过程。政治意志平衡模式有助于分析美国与伊朗外交决策者政治意志相互制衡的原因与过程。强制性外交的四个影响因素与外交决策者政治意存在密切关系。
当前,强制性外交仍是国际社会与伊朗管理伊朗核问题的主要途径。虽然强制性外交存在一定的局限性,但可以促进各方加强了解,有助于解决国际冲突。美国和伊朗可以避免诉诸武力解决核问题,威胁国际和中东地区安全。根据目前情况,伊朗核计划的非武器化的可能性大于武器化,伊朗核问题通过外交途径解决的可能性大于使用武力解决。
Iranian Nuclear Issue is one of the hot issues concerning current international security. It reflects the contradiction at three levels--international, regional and national. With a view to maintaining international security and the authority of International Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime, the international community requires Iran to abide by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and its Additional Protocol on Nuclear Safeguards, so as to ensure that Iranian nuclear program serves the purpose of peaceful civilian use. Most of the countries in Middle East on one hand show their understanding of Iranian nuclear aspiration, but on the other hand they fear that Iranian nuclear program will be used for military purposes. Therefore, they take advantage of Iranian Nuclear Issue as an excuse to compete for the development of their own nuclear programs. Iranian Nuclear Issue highlights the contradiction and conflict between Iran and the United States. The United Sates strongly urged Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment activities and to stop its nuclear program, for fear that Iranian Nuclear Issue will pose a threat to the security of the Middle East and the whole world, thus endangering U.S. global strategy and its security interests in the Middle East.
Coercive Diplomacy is one of the primary means taken by the side of coercer for the purpose of regulating and resolving international conflicts. Coercive Diplomacy is characterized by the fact that the side of coercer requires its opponent to take actions or change policy by means of diplomatic mediation, not excluding the threat of using force. Coercive Diplomacy not only emphasizes the function of diplomatic means in terms of negotiating and coordinating to alleviate the international conflict, but also stresses its function of compelling the opponent to escalate the international conflict. The side of Coercer even threatens to use the force to promote the diplomacy, forcing the opponent to satisfy its demands; otherwise the opponent will be severely punished. Coercive Diplomacy requires that the side of coercer should formulate explicit strategic objectives, possess the capacity of achieving these strategic objectives, set the deadline for the opponent to satisfy the demands, keep a sound channel for the two sides to exchange information, make a timely assessment of the efficiency of the coercive diplomacy and make preparations for the subsequent actions. Coercive Diplomacy mainly manifests itself in the fact that the coercer makes diplomatic requirements to its opponent, imposes sanctions and even resorts to sanctions and persuasion, increases the intensity of threat and most probably issues the ultimatum.
In Iran Nuclear Issue, there not only exists coercive diplomacy that the United States implements towards Iran, but also the counter-coercive diplomacy that Iran carries out towards the United States, so that the United States and Iran enter a state of mutual coercion. Since the United States and Iran have so far not resumed their diplomatic relations, the coercive diplomacy that the United States implements towards Iran is strongly characterized by sharp extendedness, mainly manifesting itself in its features of sanctions and persuasion, the threat of using force, diplomatic coercion and ultimatum. The Counter-coercive Diplomacy taken by Iran towards the United States is characterized by inequality between the small state and the great power, mainly embodying the features of counter-sanctions, counter-threat, counter-diplomacy and ultimatum.
In Iranian Nuclear Issue, because of the differences existing between the United States and Iran in terms of such aspects as their comprehensive National Strength, foreign policy-making efficiency, international support acquirement, perception of security and threat, the United States has gradually won the initiative and international legitimacy in spurring the UN Security Council more than once to pass the resolutions to impose sanctions upon Iran. However, Iran refuses to stop its uranium enrichment related activities, insisting on its rights to peacefully use nuclear technology in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. This fact, to some extent, testifies the validity of four theoretical hypotheses of Coercive Diplomacy:firstly, the more powerful the coercer is, the more likely it will succeed; Secondly, the more democratic the coercer is in its mechanism of foreign policy-making, the more consistently Coercive Diplomacy will be implemented, and thus the more likely it will succeed; thirdly, the more international support the coercer is able to win, the more legitimacy its actions will represent, and therefore the more likely it will succeed; fourthly, the more threat the coercer feels, the stronger political resolve the coercer will show in implementing coercive diplomacy, but as a result the less likely the coercer will succeed.
As far as Iranian Nuclear Issue is concerned, there exist three analytical models concerning Coercive Diplomacy:the Challenge-response Model helps to analyze the mutual implementation of Coercive Diplomacy between the United States and Iran, and to explain the cause and process of escalation and alleviation of Iranian Nuclear Issue; the Rational Choice Model serves to analyze the cause and process of cost-benefit calculation among the relevant sides in Iran Nuclear Issue; the Political Resolve Balance Model is conducive to analyze the cause and process of the mutual balance of policy-makers'political resolve in the United States and Iran. The four influencing elements of Coercive Diplomacy are also closely related to the political resolve of foreign policy decision makers.
Currently, Coercive Diplomacy is still the major means through which the international community and Iran regulate Iran Nuclear Issue. Although there exist some limitations with Coercive Diplomacy, it may still serve to promote the understanding between different sides concerned and help to resolve the international conflict. The United States and Iran can work to avoid the use of force to resolve Iran Nuclear Issue, thus not threatening the security of the world and Middle East. Given the present situation, Iran Nuclear Program is more likely to be oriented towards non-weaponization than weaponization, while there exists greater possibility that Iran Nuclear Issue will be solved through diplomatic means rather than through the means of using force.
强制性外交是强制方为管理和解决国际冲突采取的主要形式之一。强制性外交指强制方以外交谈判为主要手段,不排除武力威胁,要求对手采取行动,改变政策。它不仅强调外交手段协商协调,缓和国际冲突的功能,而且强调其胁迫对手,使国际冲突升级的功能。强制方甚至以武力威胁促进外交,迫使对手满足强制方的外交要求,否则将可能遭受严重惩罚。强制性外交要求强制方具有明确的战略目标,拥有实现战略目标的实力,限制对手满足条件的时间,保持双方信息沟通,及时评估强制性外交的效果并做好后续行动的准备。它主要表现为强制方向对手提出外交要求,进行制裁劝诱,增强威胁力度,并可能诉诸最后通牒。
在伊朗核问题上,不仅存在美国对伊朗实施的强制性外交,而且存在伊朗对美国的反强制性外交,美国与伊朗形成了相互强制的状态。由于美国与伊朗没有恢复外交关系,美国对伊朗的强制性外交具有强烈的延伸性特点,主要表现为制裁与劝诱、武力威胁、外交强制与最后通牒。伊朗对美国实施的反强制性外交体现了小国对大国不对等强制的特点,主要表现为制裁反制、威胁反制、外交反制与最后通牒。
在伊朗核问题上,由于美国与伊朗在综合实力对比、外交决策效率、争取国际社会支持以及安全威胁认知方面存在差别,美国逐渐赢得了主动,争取到了国际合法性,促进联合国安理会多次通过了制裁伊朗的决议。然而,伊朗坚持根据《不扩散核武器条约》所享有的和平利用核技术的权利,拒绝停止浓缩铀活动。这一定程度上验证了强制性外交的四个理论假设：第一,综合实力越强,强制性外交成功的可能性越大；第二,外交决策机制越民主的行为体,实施强制性外交的连贯性就越强,强制性外交成功的可能性就越大；第三,国际社会的支持度越大,强制方行为的国际合法性越强,强制性外交成功的可能性就越大；第四,感受到的安全威胁越大,强制方实施强制性外交的政治意愿就可能越强,但强制性外交成功的可能性就越小
在伊朗核问题上,强制性外交主要存在三种分析模式：挑战—应对模式有助于分析美国与伊朗相互实施强制性外交以及伊朗核问题升级与缓和的原因与过程。理性选择模式有助于分析伊朗核问题过程中相关各方成本—收益核算的原因与过程。政治意志平衡模式有助于分析美国与伊朗外交决策者政治意志相互制衡的原因与过程。强制性外交的四个影响因素与外交决策者政治意存在密切关系。
当前,强制性外交仍是国际社会与伊朗管理伊朗核问题的主要途径。虽然强制性外交存在一定的局限性,但可以促进各方加强了解,有助于解决国际冲突。美国和伊朗可以避免诉诸武力解决核问题,威胁国际和中东地区安全。根据目前情况,伊朗核计划的非武器化的可能性大于武器化,伊朗核问题通过外交途径解决的可能性大于使用武力解决。
Iranian Nuclear Issue is one of the hot issues concerning current international security. It reflects the contradiction at three levels--international, regional and national. With a view to maintaining international security and the authority of International Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime, the international community requires Iran to abide by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and its Additional Protocol on Nuclear Safeguards, so as to ensure that Iranian nuclear program serves the purpose of peaceful civilian use. Most of the countries in Middle East on one hand show their understanding of Iranian nuclear aspiration, but on the other hand they fear that Iranian nuclear program will be used for military purposes. Therefore, they take advantage of Iranian Nuclear Issue as an excuse to compete for the development of their own nuclear programs. Iranian Nuclear Issue highlights the contradiction and conflict between Iran and the United States. The United Sates strongly urged Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment activities and to stop its nuclear program, for fear that Iranian Nuclear Issue will pose a threat to the security of the Middle East and the whole world, thus endangering U.S. global strategy and its security interests in the Middle East.
Coercive Diplomacy is one of the primary means taken by the side of coercer for the purpose of regulating and resolving international conflicts. Coercive Diplomacy is characterized by the fact that the side of coercer requires its opponent to take actions or change policy by means of diplomatic mediation, not excluding the threat of using force. Coercive Diplomacy not only emphasizes the function of diplomatic means in terms of negotiating and coordinating to alleviate the international conflict, but also stresses its function of compelling the opponent to escalate the international conflict. The side of Coercer even threatens to use the force to promote the diplomacy, forcing the opponent to satisfy its demands; otherwise the opponent will be severely punished. Coercive Diplomacy requires that the side of coercer should formulate explicit strategic objectives, possess the capacity of achieving these strategic objectives, set the deadline for the opponent to satisfy the demands, keep a sound channel for the two sides to exchange information, make a timely assessment of the efficiency of the coercive diplomacy and make preparations for the subsequent actions. Coercive Diplomacy mainly manifests itself in the fact that the coercer makes diplomatic requirements to its opponent, imposes sanctions and even resorts to sanctions and persuasion, increases the intensity of threat and most probably issues the ultimatum.
In Iran Nuclear Issue, there not only exists coercive diplomacy that the United States implements towards Iran, but also the counter-coercive diplomacy that Iran carries out towards the United States, so that the United States and Iran enter a state of mutual coercion. Since the United States and Iran have so far not resumed their diplomatic relations, the coercive diplomacy that the United States implements towards Iran is strongly characterized by sharp extendedness, mainly manifesting itself in its features of sanctions and persuasion, the threat of using force, diplomatic coercion and ultimatum. The Counter-coercive Diplomacy taken by Iran towards the United States is characterized by inequality between the small state and the great power, mainly embodying the features of counter-sanctions, counter-threat, counter-diplomacy and ultimatum.
In Iranian Nuclear Issue, because of the differences existing between the United States and Iran in terms of such aspects as their comprehensive National Strength, foreign policy-making efficiency, international support acquirement, perception of security and threat, the United States has gradually won the initiative and international legitimacy in spurring the UN Security Council more than once to pass the resolutions to impose sanctions upon Iran. However, Iran refuses to stop its uranium enrichment related activities, insisting on its rights to peacefully use nuclear technology in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. This fact, to some extent, testifies the validity of four theoretical hypotheses of Coercive Diplomacy:firstly, the more powerful the coercer is, the more likely it will succeed; Secondly, the more democratic the coercer is in its mechanism of foreign policy-making, the more consistently Coercive Diplomacy will be implemented, and thus the more likely it will succeed; thirdly, the more international support the coercer is able to win, the more legitimacy its actions will represent, and therefore the more likely it will succeed; fourthly, the more threat the coercer feels, the stronger political resolve the coercer will show in implementing coercive diplomacy, but as a result the less likely the coercer will succeed.
As far as Iranian Nuclear Issue is concerned, there exist three analytical models concerning Coercive Diplomacy:the Challenge-response Model helps to analyze the mutual implementation of Coercive Diplomacy between the United States and Iran, and to explain the cause and process of escalation and alleviation of Iranian Nuclear Issue; the Rational Choice Model serves to analyze the cause and process of cost-benefit calculation among the relevant sides in Iran Nuclear Issue; the Political Resolve Balance Model is conducive to analyze the cause and process of the mutual balance of policy-makers'political resolve in the United States and Iran. The four influencing elements of Coercive Diplomacy are also closely related to the political resolve of foreign policy decision makers.
Currently, Coercive Diplomacy is still the major means through which the international community and Iran regulate Iran Nuclear Issue. Although there exist some limitations with Coercive Diplomacy, it may still serve to promote the understanding between different sides concerned and help to resolve the international conflict. The United States and Iran can work to avoid the use of force to resolve Iran Nuclear Issue, thus not threatening the security of the world and Middle East. Given the present situation, Iran Nuclear Program is more likely to be oriented towards non-weaponization than weaponization, while there exists greater possibility that Iran Nuclear Issue will be solved through diplomatic means rather than through the means of using force.
引文
1 Alvin J. Cottrell and James E.Dougherty, Iran's Quest for Security:US Arms Transfers and the Nuclear Options, Cambridge and Massachusetts:Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, Foreign Policy Report, May 1977, p.39.
2 Jerome R. Corsi, Atomic Iran:How the Terrorist Regime Bought the Bomb and American Politicians, Nashville:WND Books,2005.
3 Ray Takeyh, Hidden Iran:Paradox and Power in the Islamic Republic, New York:Times Books,2006.
4 Shahram Chubin, Iran's Nuclear Ambitions, Washington, D.C.:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,2006.
5 Han Berman, Tehran Rising:Iran's Challenge to the United States, Lanham:Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2005.
6 Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying the Bomb:American. Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and North Korea, New York:W. W. Norton & Company,2006, pp.503-517.
7 Ali M. Ansari, Confronting Iran:The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Next Great Crisis in the Middle East, New York:Basic Books.2006.
8 Roger Howard, Iran in Crisis:Nuclear Ambition and the American Response, London and New York:Zed Books, 2004.
9 The Economist Intelligent Unit Limited, "Country Report:Iran".
10 Anthony H. Cordesman Khalid R. Al-Rodhan, "Iranian Nuclear Weapons? The Uncertain Nature of Iran's Nuclear Programs," Washington, DC:Center for Strategic and International Studies, April 12,2006; Efraim Inbar, "The Need to Block a Nuclear Iran," Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol.10, No.1, March 2006; Maxine Kaye, "Toward a Nuclear Iran:The History, the Threat, and the International Response," New York:American Jewish Committee, December 2006, et al.
1王凤：“伊朗核问题及其走势”,《西亚非洲》2004年第1期。
2刘国华：“伊朗核问题与大国的利益博弈”,《国际问题研究》2007年第2期；陈兆华、王飞：“伊朗‘核问题’与美国对伊政策”,《现代国际关系》2004年第1期。
3王冀平、洪邮生、吉利强：“伊朗核问题与大国关系”,《美国研究》2004年第1期；赵伟明：“挑战美国地位重塑大国形象——俄罗斯对中东战略的变化与俄美关系”,《西亚非洲》200.7年第10期；华黎明：“伊朗核问题与中国外交的选择”,《国际问题研究》2007年第1期；吴成：“俄罗斯同美国在伊朗核问题上的合作与冲突”,《西亚非洲》2006年第6期；袁胜育：“伊朗核问题与俄罗斯的政策”,《俄罗斯研究》2006年第1期。
4主要是伊朗的网站,如伊朗伊斯兰共和国对外广播电台华语台(http://www2.irib.ir/worldservice/chinese/)和伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社(http://www2.irna.ir/ch/)。贾瓦德·曼苏里：“和平利用核能与维护正当权利——伊朗核计划”,《世界经济与政治》2007年10期。
1 Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, London:the President and Fellows of Harvard College,1960/1980; Thomas C. Schelling and Morton H. Halperin, Strategy and Arms Control, New York:Twentieth Century Fund,1961; Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence, New Haven:Yale University Press,1966。
2 Herman Kahn, On Escalation, Baltimore:Penguin Books,1965; William Kaufmann, Military Policy and National Security, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1956; Bernard Brodie, Escalation and the Nuclear Option, Princeton: Princeton University Press,1966.
3 Alexander L. George and David K. Hall and William E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, Boston:Little, Brown and Company,1971; Alexander L. George and Richard Smoke, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy:Theory And Practice, New York and London:Columbia University Press,1974; Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy: The Effective Use of Information and Advice, Westview Press,1980; Alexander L. George and William E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, London and Boulder:Westview Press,1994; Gordon A. Craig and Alexander L. George, Force and Statecraft:Diplomatic Problems of Our Time, Oxford:Oxford University Press, Inc.,1995.
4 Alexander L. George and David K. Hall and William E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, Boston:Little, Brown and Company,1971, Introduction,Ⅹ.
5 Lawrence Freedman, Strategic Coercion:Concepts and Cases, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1998; The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, New York:Palgrave Macmillan,2003; Deterrence, Cambridge:Polity Press,2004.
6 Stephen J. Cimbala, Military Persuasion and Provocation in Crisis and War, University Park:The Pennsylvania State University Press,1994; Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation in the Twenty-first Centiury. Westview:Praeger Publishers. 2001; First Strike Stability:Deterrence after Containment, Westport:Greenwood Press Group, Inc.,1990; The Past and Future of Nuclear Deterrence, Westport:Praeger Publishers,1998; Nuclear Weapons and Strategy:U.S. Nuclear Policy for the Twenty-First Century, London and New York:Routfedge,2005.
7 Kenneth A. Schultz, Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy, Cambridge, New York:Cambridge University Press,2001.
8 Peter Viggo Jakobsen. Western Use of Coercive Diplomacy after the Cold War:A Challenge for Theory and Practice, New York:St. Martin's Press.1998.
9 Bruce W. Jentleson and Christopher A. Whytock, "Who 'Won' Libya? The Force-Diplomacy Debate and Its Implications for Theory and Policy", International Security, Vol.30, No.3, Winter 2005/06, pp.51-53.
1 Robert J. Art and Patrick M.Cronin, The United States and Coercive Diplomacy, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,2004, Robert J. Art and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Use of Force:Military Power and International Politics, Lanham:Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.,2004, pp.3-22; Robert J. Art, "American Foreign Policy and the Fungibility of Force," Security Studies, Vol.5, No.4, Summer 1996, pp.7-42.
2 Jan van Angeren, The Opportunities & Limits of Compellence Strategies:The Quest for a Framework for Analysis, pp.11-15. https://openaccess.leidenuniv.nl/dspace/bitstream/1887/4276/3/Proefschrift.pdf
3 Martha Crenshaw, "Coercive Diplomacy and The Response to Terrorism." in Robert J. Art and Patrick M.Cronin, The United States and Coercive Diplomacy, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,2004, pp.305-357.
4钱春泰：《武力威胁与外交政策：强制外交研究》,2004年,南京大学博士论文；“国际政治中武力的潜在运用：威逼与威慑”,《欧洲研究》2005年第4期,第53-67页；“美国与强制外交理论”,《美国研究》2006年第3期：“论冷战后美国的强制外交”,《国际观察》2007年第3期。
5石斌：“从强制外交到多边协调——析美国对朝核问题的政策”,《国际观察》2004年第2期。
6陈东晓：“对后冷战时期美国胁迫外交的一种理论分析”,沈丁立、任晓： 《现实主义与美国外交政策》,上海三联书店,2004年版,第183-203页。
1 Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence, New Haven:Yale University Press,1966, p.3.
2 Robert Pape, Bombing to Win:Air Power and Coercion in War, Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press,1996, pp.12-15.
3 Lawrence Freedman, Strategic Coercion:Concepts and Cases, New York:Oxford University Press,1998, p.3.
4克劳塞维茨： 《战争论》,商务印书馆,1982年版,第43页。
1 Alexander L. George, Forceful Persuasion:Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,1991, p.5.
2 Thomas C. Schelling, Anns and Influence, New Haven:Yale University Press,1966, pp.3-4, p.76.
3 Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, p.196; Arms and Influence, pp.69-72.
4 Bruce W. Jentleson, "The Reagan Administration and Coercive Diplomacy:Restraining More than Remaking Government", Political Science Quarterly, Vol.106, Spring 1991, p.57.
5 Walter Peterson, "Deterrence and Compellence:A Critical Assessment of Conventional Wisdom", International Studies Quarterly, Summer 1986, p.270.
6 Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence, New Haven:Yale University Press,1966, p.69,100; Walter J. Petersen,
"Deterrence and Compellence:A Critical Assessment of Conventional Wisdom", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.30, 1986, pp.269-294; Lawrence Freedman, Strategic Coercion:Concepts and Cases, Oxford:Oxford University Press, 1998, p.54; Maria Sperandei, "Bridging Deterrence and Compellence:An Alternative Approach to the Study of Coercive Diplomacy", International Studies Review, Vol.8,2006, pp.256-257.
7 Robert J. Art, "To What Ends Military Power," International Security, Vol.4, No.4, Spring 1980, p.10.
8 Jan van Angeren, The Opportunities & Limits of Compellence Strategies:The Quest for a Framework for Analysis, pp.11-15.
1 Poyueh Wang Hsu, "US Coercive Diplomacy in the North Korean Crisis:From the Crime-and-Punishment Approach to Diplomatic Give-and-Take,1993-1994", Tamkang Journal of International Affairs, Vol.9, No.4, April 2006, pp.56-57.
2 Alexander L. George, Forceful Persuasion:Coercive Diplomacy as, an Alternative to War, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,1991,Ⅸ.
3 Alexander L. George, Forceful Persuasion:Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,1991, p.5.
4 Alexander L. George and William E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, Boulder:Westview,1994, p.10.
5参见Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence, New Haven, CT:Yale University Press,1966; Robert Jervis, The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution:Statecraft and the Prospect of Armageddon, Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press, 1989; Patrick M. Morgan, Deterrence:A Conceptual Analysis, Beverly Hills, CA:Sage Press,1977; Keith Payne, Deterrence in the Second Nuclear Age, Lexington:University Press of Kentucky,1996.
6从严格意义上说,战略强制并不等于强制性外交,然而由于在实践运作过程中,虽然战略强制强调武力威胁的重要性,但在其实施过程中并不可能完全排斥外交手段的实际运用,因此在具体案例分析中往往容易混淆,特别当战略强制实施者准备为自己武力威胁提供合法性时,即使他们并不重视外交在解决国际冲突中的重要作用,也往往倾向于将战略强制等同于强制性外交。
7参见Robert J. Art and Kenneth N. Waftz, The Use of Force:Military Power and International Politics, Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.,2004; Gordon A. Craig and Alexander L. George, Force and Statecraft: Diplomatic Problems of Our Time, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1995; Thomas M. Franck, Recourse to Force:State Action against Threats and Armed Attacks, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2002; Christopher M. Gacek, The Logic of Force:The Dilemma of Limited War in American Foreign Policy, New York:Columbia University Press,1994; James David Meernik, The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy, Burlington:Ashgate Publishing Company,2004; The Aspen Strategy Group, The United States and the Use of Force in the Post-Cold War Era, Queenstown:The Aspen Institute,1995.
1 Barry M. Blechman and Stephen S. Kaplan and Jerome Slater, Force without War:U.S. Armed Forces as a Political Instrument. Washington, D.C.:The Brookings Institution,1978, pp.4-20.
1 Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence, New Haven:Yale University Press,1966, pp.69-76; Peter Viggo Jakobsen, "The Strategy of Coercive Diplomacy:Refining Existing Theory to Post-Cold War Realities", in Lawrence Freedman, Strategic Coercion:Concepts and. Cases. New York:Oxford University Press,1998, p.66.
2亚历山大·乔治认为,托马斯·谢林提出的“胁迫”(compellance)概念在意图上与强制性外交相似,但胁迫除了具有强制性外交的意义外,还具有敲诈(blackmail)的意义,即使用侵略性的强制威胁迫使对手放弃某个有价值的目标而不作出任何反抗。Alexander L. George, Forceful Persuasion:Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,1991, p.5.
3 Alexander L. George and William E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, London and Boulder:Westview Press, 1994, p.16.
4 Alexander L. George and William E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, London and Boulder:Westview Press, 1994, pp.271-288. Peter Viggo Jakobsen, "The Strategy of Coercive Diplomacy:Refining Existing Theory to Post-Cold War Realities", Lawrence Freedman, Strategic Coercion:Concepts and. Cases. New York:Oxford University Press, 1998, p.68.
1 Peter Viggo Jakobsen, Western Use of Coercive Diplomacy after the Cold War:A Challenge for Theory and Practice, New York:St. Martin's Press,1998, pp.11-50.
2 Robert Jervis, "Deterrence and Perception", International Security, Vol.7, No.3, Winter 1982-1983, pp.3-30.
3 Alexander George, Forceful Persuasion:Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War; Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,1991, p.4.
1强制方往往自我认定能够完全反映自己政治愿望和战略利益的客观情况为“现状”,从而约束对手的行为。
2 Hans Mogenthau, Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations:The Struggle for Power and Peace, New York: Alfred A. Knopf, Inc.,1985, p.563.
3 Robert J. Art and Patrick M. Cronin, The United States and Coercive Diplomacy, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,2004, pp.275-303.
1 Peter Viggo Jakobsen, Western Use of Coercive Diplomacy after the Cold War:A Challenge for Theory and Practice, New York, N.Y.:St. Martin's Press,1998, p.29.
2 Alexander L. George, Forceful Persuasion:Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,1991, p.19.
1 Hans Mogenthau, Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations:The Struggle for Power and Peace, New York: Alfred A. Knopf, Inc.,1985, p.563.
1 Christer Jonsson and Richard Langhorne, Diplomacy:Volume Ⅰ:Theory of Diplomacy, London:SAGE Publishers, 2004, p.ⅩⅢ.
1 Joseph Nye, "Soft Power," Foreign Policy, Fall,1990, p.158; Beverly Crawford, "The New Security Dilemma under International Economic Interdependence," Millennium:Journal ofInternational Studies, Vol.23,1994, pp.25-55.
2 Irfan Nooruddin, "Modeling Selection Bias in Studies of Sanctions Efficacy," International Interactions, Vol.28, No.l, 2002, p.61.
3 Brian M. Pollins, "Cannons and Capital:The Use of Coercive Diplomacy by Major Powers in the Twenties Century," in Frank W. Wayman and Paul F. Diehl, Reconstructing Realpolitik, Ann Arbor:The University of Michigan Press,1994, pp.29-54.
4 David Lektzian and Mark Souva, "Institutions and International Cooperation:An Event History Analysis of the Effects of Economic Sanctions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.45, No.l, February 2001, p.61.
5 Bruce Jentleson, "Coercive Diplomacy:Scope and Limits in the Contemporary World," Policy Analysis Briefs, Stanley Foundation, December 2006, p.8.
6 Paul C. Stern, and Daniel Druckman, International Conflict Resolution after the Cold War, Washington, D.C.:National Academy Press,2000, pp.126-127.
7 David Baldwin, Economic Statecraft, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1985, p.13.
8 John Spanier, Games Nations Play, Washington, D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Inc.,1987, p.327.
1 Dean Lacy, Emerson M. S. Niou, "Nonseparable Preferences, Issue Linkage, and Economic Sanctions," Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, MA, September 3-6,1998. http://www.tsr. umich.edu/cps/pewp a/archive/archive_98/19980021.pdf
2 Richard Porter, "International Trade and Investment Sanctions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.23, No.4, December 1979, p.581.
3 David A. Baldwin, Robert A. Pape, "Evaluating Economic Sanctions," International Security, Vol.23, No.2, Autumn 1998, p.197.
4 Fiona McGillivray and Allan C. Stam, "Political Institutions, Coercive Diplomacy, and the Duration of Economic Sanctions," The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.48, No.2, April 2004, pp.154-170.
5 Bruce Jentleson, "Coercive Diplomacy:Scope and Limits in the Contemporary World", Policy Analysis Briefs, December 2006, p.8.
6 International Crisis Group, "Iran:Is There a Way Out of the Nuclear Impasse," Middle East Report, No.51,23 February 2006, p.9.
7 William H. Keampfer, Anton D. Lowenberg, "Unilateral Versus Multilateral International Sanctions:A Public Choice Perspective," International Studies Quarterly Vol.43, No.1, March 1999, pp.37-58; Anne C. Miers and T. Clifton Morgan, "Multilateral Sanctions and Foreign Policy Success:Can too Many Cooks Spoil the Broth?" International Interactions, Vol.28, No.1,2002, pp.117-136.
'David Baldwin, "The Power of Positive Sanctions," World Politics, Vol.24, No.1, October 1971, p.28.
2宋国友：“经济劝服战略的理论分析”,《国际观察》2007年第4期,第56页。
3 Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, "Forcing Hard Choices on Tehran:Raising the Costs of Iran's Nuclear Program," Policy Focus #62, Washington, D.C.:The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, November 2006, p.27.
4 Andrew Mark and Asif Khan, "The Efficacy of UN Sanctions," Security Dialogue, Vol.31, No.3, September 2000, p.287.
5 Abram Chayes and Antonia Handler Chayes, The New Sovereignty:Compliance with International Regulatory Agreements, Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1995, p.2强制方在实施经济制裁的同时往往辅以其他手段强制对手满足自己的外交要求6 Daniel W. Drezner, The Sanctions Paradox:Economic Statecraft and International Relations, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1999, p.17.
1 Paul Gordon Lauren, "Ultimata and Coercive Diplomacy," International Studies Quarterly, Vol.16, No.2, Junuary 1972, p.137.
2 Alexander L. George, Forceful Persuasion:Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,1991, p.7.
1根据《联合国宪章》,战争和武力等强制威胁只有在自卫或集体防卫时才具有合法性。Louis Henkin and Jeane J. Kirkpatrick, et al, Right V. Might:International Law and the Use of Force, New York:Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1991,pp.37-52.
2 Paul Gordon Lauren, "Ultimata and Coercive Diplomacy," International Studies Quarterly, Vol.16, No.2, June 1972, p.162.
3 Zalmay Khalilzad and David Ochmane, "How to Coerce Saddam", Wall Street Journal, February 3,1998, p.1.
4 Bruce W. Jentleson and Christopher A. Whytock, "Who'Won'Libya? The Force-Diplomacy Debate and Its Implications for Theory and Policy", International Security, Vol.30, No.3, Winter 2005/06, p.52.
1 Bruce Jentleson, "Coercive Diplomacy:Scope and Limits in the Contemporary World", Policy Analysis Briefs, December 2006, p.3.
2 Bruce W. Jentleson and Christopher A. Whytock, "Who 'Won' Libya? The Force-Diplomacy Debate and Its Implications for Theory and Policy", International Security, Vol.30, No.3, Winter 2005/06, pp.51-53.
1 Alexander L. George and Andrew Bennett, "Preface", Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences, Massachusetts:The MIT Press,2005,p.Ⅹ.
1 Jonathan Shimshoni, Israel and Conventional Deterrence:Broad Warfare from 1953 to 1970, Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press,1988, p.226; Kenneth C. Schow Jr., "Falcons against the Jihad:Israeli Aipower and Coercive Diplomacy in Southern Lebanon," SAASS Theses, November 1995. http://aupress.maxwell.af.mil/saas_Theses/SAASS_Out/Schow/schow.pdf
1 Daniel Poneman, Nuclear Power in the Developing World, London:Allen & Unwin, Inc.,1982, p.88.
2 John P. Miglietta, American Alliance Policy in the Middle East,1945-1992:Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, Lexington: Lexington Books,2002.
1 Anne Hessing Cahn, "Determinants of the Nuclear Option:The Case of Iran," in Onkar Marwah and Ann Schulz, Nuclear Proliferation and the Near-Nuclear Countries, Cambridge:Ballinger,1975, p.195.
2 Anne Hessing Cahn, "Determinants of the Nuclear Option:The Case of Iran," in Onkar Marwah and Ann Shulz eds. Nuclear Proliferation in the Near-Nuclear Countries, Cambridge:Ballinger Publishing Co.,1975, p.186.
3 International Atomic Energy Agency, The Annual Report for 1992, Document GC (ⅩⅩⅩⅦ) 1060, July 1993, p.140.
4 James F. Leonard and Jan Prawitz, "The Middle East as a NWFZ or WMDFZ Application," Pacifica Review, Vol.11 No.3, October 1999, p.263; UN Document A/RES/3263 (ⅩⅩⅨ).
5 Leonard S. Spector, Nuclear Ambitions, Colorado:Westview Press,1990, p.204:Chris Quillen, "Iranian Nuclear Weapons Policy:Past, Present, and Possible Future," Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol.6, No.2, June 2002, p.17.
0 Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, Mission for My Country, London:Hutchinson,1961, p.307.
7 Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World, Washington, DC:The Brookings Institution,1979, p.52.
8 INFCIRC/214, Information Circular, International Atomic Energy Agency, December 13,1974. http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/Others/infcirc214.pdf
9 Ian Bellany, Curbing the Spread of Nuclear Weapons, Manchester and New York:Manchester University Press,2005, Appendix B.
10 Maxine Kaye and Ari Fridman and Julia Levy, "Toward a Nuclear Iran:The History, the Threat, and the International Response," American Jewish Committee, December 2006, p.3. http://www.eisenhower.archives.gov/speeches/atoms_for_peace_milestone_document/atoml.htm
11 US Department of State, "Atoms for Peace Agreement with Iran," Department of State Bulletin Vol.36 No.15, April 1957, p.629; Daniel Poneman, Nuclear Power in the Developing World, London:George Allen & Unwin,1982, p.84.
1 Sharon Squassoni, "Iran's Nuclear Program:Recent Developments", CRS Report for Congress, July 20.2006, p.1; "Central Treaty Organization", International Organization, Vol.14, No.1, Winter,1960, p.216.
2 H. Muller, A European Non-Proliferation Policy:Prospects and Problems, Oxford:Clarendon Press,1987, pp.203-27.
3钚是一种能够激发核连锁反应的放射性元素。然而,许多分析家认为,钋不是用于生产核武器的合适原料。Sharon Squassoni, "Iran's Nuclear Program:Recent Developments", CRS Report for Congress, Order Code RS21592, updated July 20,2006, p.4.
4 Department of State, "U.S. Supplied Nuclear Material to Iran, September 1967 to May 1976", DSNA Item Number IR03551, Digital National Security Archive, Iran Revolution Collection, January 29,1980.
5 Leonard S. Spector and Jacqueline R. Smith, Nuclear Ambition:The Spread of Nuclear Weapons,1989-1990, Boulder: Westview Press,1990, p.205; Louis Charbonneau, "N. Korea Provides Nuclear Aid to Iran, intel reports," The Reuters, July 6,2005.
1核燃料循环是指核燃料的获得、使用、处理、回收利用的全过程。燃料循环通常分成两大部分,即前端和后端,它包括铀矿开采、矿石加工(选矿、浸出、沉淀等多种工序)、铀的提取、精制、转换、浓缩、元件制造等；后端包括对反应堆辐照以后的乏燃料元件进行铀钚分离的后处理以及对放射性废物处理、贮存和处置。参见中国核信息网：http://www.atominfo.com.cn/knowledge/know_hnzs_hrlxh.aspx
2 Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World:U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, D.C.:The Brookings Institution,1979, p.56.
3 "Russia Helps Build Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant," FBIS-NES-94-079, Vol.25, April 1994, p.82.
4 Mark Hibbs, "Bushehr Construction Now Remote After Three Iraqi Air Strikes," Nucleonics Week, November 26,1987, pp.5-6.
5 Maxine Kaye and Ari Fridman and Julia Levy, "Toward a Nuclear Iran:The History, the Threat, and the International Response," American Jewish Committee, December 2006, p.4.
6 Leonard S. Spector, Going Nuclear, Cambridge, Mass:Ballinger Pub. Co.,1987, pp.46-48.
7 Richard Kessler, "Argentina's Invap to Supply Iran Fuel for Research Reactor," Nucleonics Week, May 14,1987, p.2.
1 Anthony C. Cain, "Iran's Strategic Culture and Weapons of Mass Destruction:Implications of US Policy", Maxwell Paper No.26, Air War College:Air University Press, April 2002, p.13.
2 Jahangir Amuzegar, "Nuclear Iran:Perils and Prospects", Middle East Policy, Vol.ⅩⅢ, No.2, Summer 2006, p.92.
3 Richard K. Betts, "Incentives for Nuclear Weapons:India, Pakistan, Iran," Asian Survey, Vol.19, No.11, November 1979, p.1066.
4 Gregory F. Giles, "The Islamic Republic of Iran and Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Weapons," in Peter R. Lavoy, Scott D. Sagan, and James J. Wirtz, Planning the Unthinkable:How New Powers Will Use Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons, Ithaca:Cornell University Press,2000, p.82; Ali M. Ansari, Modern Iran Since 1921:The Pahlavis and After, London:Pearson Education Limited,2003, p.192-249; Nikkie R. Keddie, Modern Iran:Roots and Results of Revolution, New Haven:Yale University Press,2003, p.214-62; Sandra Mackey, The Iranians:Persia, Islam, and the Soul of a Nation, New York:Penguin Putnam,1998, pp.271-333.
5 Geoffrey Kemp and Walter Lippmann, "How to Stop the Iranian Bomb," The National Interest, No.72, Summer 2003, p.50. Gawdat Bahgat, "Nuclear Proliferation:The Islamic Republic of Iran," International Studies Perspectives, Vol.7, 2006, p.130.
6 John W. Graver, China and Iran:Ancient Partners in a Post-Imperial World, Seattle and London:University of Washington Press,2006, p.143.
7 Herbert Krosney, Deadly Business:Legal Deals and Outlaw Weapons:The Arming of Iran and Iraq,1975 to the Present, London:Four Walls Eight Windows,1993, p.188.
8 Herbert Krosney, Deadly Business:Legal Deals and Outlaw Weapons:The Arming of Iran and Iraq,1975 to the Present, London:Four Walls Eight Windows,1993, p.192; Anthony H. Cordesman, Iran's Military Forces in Transition: Conventional Threats and Weapons of Mass Destruction, Westport:Praeger Publishers,1999, p.234.
1 John Pike "Iran Leardership,2003.http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/leadership.htm
2 Michael Eisenstadt. "Living with a Nuclear Iran?" Survival, Vol.41, Iss.3, Summer 1999, p.129.
3 Michael Rubin, "Iran's Burgeoning WMD Programs, Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, Vol.4,. Iss.3,2002. http://www.meib.org/articles/0203 irnl.htm; "Rafsanjani Says Muslims Should Use Nuclear Weapon against Israel," Iran Press Service,14 December 2001, http://www.iran-pressservice.com/articles_2001/dec_2001/rafsanjani_nuke_threats_141201.htm
4 "Iran's Ayatollah Affirms Peaceful Nuclear Plans," The New York Times, January 19,2006:Molly Moore and Dafna Linzer, "IAEA:Iran Advancing Uranium Enrichment," The Washington Post, February 28,2006, p.Al 0.
5 Michael Rubin, "Iran's Burgeoning WMD Programs, Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, Vol.4, Iss.3,2002. http://www.meib.org/articles/0203_irnl.htm
6 "Iran Seeking Way to Finish Bushehr Plant but Bonn Denies Exports," Nucleonics Week, October 30,1986, pp.4-5
1 William Branigin, "Iran Set to Scrap $34 Billion Worth of Civilian Projects," The Washington Post, May 30,1979, p.A22.
2 "The About-Face in Iran On Nuclear Power Plants," Business Week, June 25,1979, p.38; "Iran:Fate of Nuclear Projects in Doubt in New Regime," Nuclear News, Vol.22, No.3, March 1979, p.59; "Iran:Kraftwerk Union Withdraws," Nuclear News, Vol.22, No.11, September 1979, p.52.
3 "German Concern Ends A-Contract," Facts on File World News Digest, August 3,1979, p.586 E2.
4 "Iranian Attack on Iraqi Nuclear Complex Seen as Harbinger," Nucleonics Week, Vol.21, No.41, October 9,1980, p.1; Allan S. Krass, et al., Uranium Enrichment and Nuclear Weapon Proliferation, London and New York:Taylor & Francis Ltd,1983, pp.219-220.
5 "Iran to Restudy A-Power," The New York Times, March 18,1982, p.A7.
6 Richard Johns, "Middle East's Uneven Nuclear Progress," Financial Times, June16,1982, p.28.
7 Milton R. Benjamin, "Administration will List 63 Countries Subject to Nuclear Export Restrictions," The Washington Post, September,1982, p.A4.
5 Ray Takeyh, Hidden Iran:Paradox and Power in the Islamic Republic, New York:Times Books,2006, p.137.
9 Richard Kessler, "Argentina to Enforce Curbs on Nuclear Trade with Iran," Nucleonics Week, Vol.28, No.12, March 19, 1987, p.12.
10 "Argentina Confirms Deal for Work on Bushehr," Nuclear News, Jury 1987, p.54
11 Kenneth R.Timmerman, Weapons of Mass Destruction:The Cases of Iran, Syria, and Libya, Simon Wiesenthal Center, August 1992, pp.41-42; Krosney, Herbert, Deadly Business:Legal Deals and Outlaw Weapons:The Arming of Iran and Iraq,1975 to the Present, London:Four Walls Eight Windows,1993, p.249; Richard P. Cronin and K. Alan Kronstadt and Sharon Squassoni, "Pakistan's Nuclear Proliferation Activities and the Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission:U.S. Policy Constraints," CRS Report for Congress, March 16,2005, p.13;一个消息称双方1987年在迪拜 (Dubai)会晤：Dafna Linzer, "U.S. Misled Allies About Nuclear Export:N. Korean Material Landed in Pakistan, Instead of Libya," The Washington Post, March 20,2005第三个消息称会晤时间为1988年：Mark Hibbs, "Bonn Will Decline Teheran Bid to Resuscitate Bushehr Project," Nucleonics Week, Vol.32, No.18,1991, p.17; Jamal S. Al-Suwaidi, Iran and the Gulf A Search for Stability, London:British Academic Press,1996, p.279.
1 Krosney, Herbert, Deadly Business:Legal Deals and Outlaw Weapons:The Arming of Iran and Iraq,1975 to the Present, London:Four Walls Eight Windows,1993, p.249.
2示波镜通常用来在实验室中进行电子信号波形的显示与分析。
3 "Iran to Complete Busheir Site," Middle East Defense News,8 January 1990.
4 "Iran was Offered Nuclear Parts," The Washington Post, February 27,2005.
5 Kenneth R. Timmerman, Weapons of Mass Destruction:The Cases of Iran, Syria and Libya, Los Angeles:Simon Wiesenthal Center,1992, p.43.
6 Anthony H. Cordesman, Iran and Nuclear Weapons:A Working Draft, Washington, D.C.:Center for Strategic and International Wtudies, February 7,2000, p.4.http://www.csis.org/mideast/reports/irannuclear02072000.pdf
7普通的氢原子也叫氕,它的原子核就含一个质子,无中子。氕与氧结合,成为普通的水。重氢又叫氘,这个字在希腊语里是“第二”的意思。氘的原子核比普通的氢原子核多一个中子。氘与氧的化合物也是水,不过它比普通水重10%,所以叫重水。重水有一个重要的特性,它在原子核反应堆里能降低中子的速度,又几乎不吸收中子,是最好的中子减速剂。只有经过减速以后的中子,才能有效地使铀发生裂变,促使核裂变反应能够不断地进行。
8 GOV/2004/83, November 15,2004, pp.12-13.
1 Nugzar Ter-Oganov, "The Russia-Iranian Nuclear Cooperation," Iran Pulse, No.5, November 5,2006.
2 Jeffrey R. Smith and Michael Dobbs, "Russia Promised to Sell Centrifuge Plant to Iran", The Washington Post, April 29,1995.
3 Bill Gertz, "Senate Sends Tough Message to Russia"; "U.S. Expect Indicates Technicians will Visit Tehran to Work on Uranium Plant", The Washington Times, March 17,1995.
4 Fred Hiatt, "Perry Hints at Iran Compromise; Secretary's Comments in Moscow Cause Consternation in Washington", The Washington Post, April 3,1995, p.A19.
5 Joseph Cirincione and Jon B. Wolfsthal and Miriam Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals:Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threats, Washington, D.C.:The Brookings Institution Press,2005. p.299.
6 "India Denies Nuclear Cooperation with Iran," Agence France Presse, December 13,2003.
7 "Russia Pledges to Continue Iranian Nuke Project," Middle East Newsline, Vol.4, No.8, January 7,2002.
1 "Iran:Russian Envoy on Afghanistan, Terrorism, US, Israel, Nuclear Power Plant," IRNA, January 30,2002.
2 "Sabato on Argentina-Brazil Nuclear Cooperation Agreements," Nuclear Developments. February 24,1988, pp.20-21.
3 Gamini Seneviratne, "IAEA Approves Argentine Fuel for Teheran Research Reactor," Nuclear Fuel, October 3,1988, p.13.
4 "Moscow, Iran Sign Economic Pacts. Hint Future Arms Deals," Los Angeles Times, June.22, L989.
5 "Musavi Receives IAEA Chief Blix," Nuclear Developments, July 14,1989, pp.14-15.
6 "Iran:Keeping its Nuclear Options Open", Iran Brief, October 9,1995.
7 Mark D. Skootsky, "U.S. Nuclear Policy Toward Iran," June 1,1995, http://people.csail. mit.edu/people/boris/iran-nuke.text
8 GOV/2004/83. November 15,2004, pp.10-11.
9 David Albright and Corey Hinderstein, "Iran:Countdown to Showdown," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol.60, No.6, November/December 2004, pp.67-72.
10 Mark Hibbs, "Iran Balking at Approval of IAEA Environmental Monitoring", Nuclear Fuel, Vol.21, No.20,1996.
1 Mark Hibbs, "Iran won't Accept More Inspections Unless U.S. Stops Nuclear Blockade," Nuclear Fuel, Vol.41, No.22, 2000.
2 GOV/2005/67, September 6,2005, para.14.
3 GOV/2005/87, November 18,2005, para.5-6.
4 John J. Lumpkin, "Iran's Nuclear Program Growing at Secret Sites, Rebel Group Alleges," The Associated Press, August 14,2002.
5王凤：“伊朗核问题的走向”,《瞭望新闻周刊》2003年第44期,第44-45页。
1 "Iran Signs Additional Protocol on Nuclear Safeguards," IAEA, December 18,2003. http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/News/2003/iranap20031218.html
2 "Iran's Nuclear Programme:A Collection of Documents, Presented, to Parliament by the Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs," January 2005. http://www.fco.gov.uk/files/kfile/cm6443.pdf; Mohsen Asgari and Mark Huband, "Iran to Suspend Uranium Enrichment Programme," The Financial Times, October 21,2003. http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=2659
3姚立：“伊朗核问题,欧盟外交初见成效”,《人民日报》2004年11月8日。
4 http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/IaeaIran/eu_iran14112004.shtml
Elaine Sciolino, "Iran and Europeans Open a New Round of Negotiations," The New York Times, December 14,2004. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/14/international/europe/14nuke.html
6 Ali Akbar Dareini, "Iran Offers Nuclear Assurances to Europe," The Associated Press, October 12,2004.
1徐鑫：“伊朗称如美承认其有权发展核技术即可直接谈判”,《中国日报》2005年3月14日。
2核反应燃料重油酸铵或重油酸钠的俗称。
3陈一鸣：“美态度各异,伊朗核问题彻底解决尚需时日”,《人民日报》2004年06月29日。
4 Ali Akbar Dareini, "Iran's Top Nuclear Official Says Tehran Has Not Abandoned Enrichment of Uranium since Its Suspension is Limited," The Associated Press, November 30,2004.
5 GOV/2003/63, August 26,2003, p.2.
6 GOV/2003/75, November 10,2003, p.2.
1 GOV/2003/75, November 10,2003,pp.3-10.
2 GOV/2003/81, November 26,2003, p.3.
3 GOV/2004/11, February 24,2004, p.5.
4 GOV/2004/34, June 1,2004, para.33但伊朗在20世纪90年代曾表示,该设备生产能力为每天几毫克数量级,只能够将铀浓缩到合同规定的铀-235浓度为3%。GOV/2003/75,para.59.
5 GOV/2004/49, June 18,2004.
1 GOV/2004/83, November 15,2004.
2 Louis Charbonneau, "Iran Halts Key Nuclear Work to Avoid UN Sanctions," The Reuters, November 22,2004.
3 GOV/2004/90, November 29,2004".
4 Ali Akbar Careini, "Iran Acknowledges 'Deep Differences' with Europe in Nuclear Talks," The Associated Press, February 23.2005.
5 "Russia-Iran Nuclear Deal Signed," BBC, February 28,2005.
6 Dafna Linzer, "IAEA Head Waits to Issue Iran Verdict," The Washington Post, March 1,2005.
7 Jahn George, "Iran Builds Bomb-Resistant Underground Nuclear Storage," The Associated Press, March 4,2005.
8允真：“伊朗自曝核计划内幕：伊朗从黑市上买过核材料”,《中国青年报》2005年3月8日。
1 Ali Akbar, "Iran Confirms Uranium-To-Gas Conversion," The Associated Press, May 9,2005.
2 Susan Loof, "IAEA Urges More Cooperation From Iran," The Associated Press, June 15,2005.
3 Shahra,Chubin, Iran's Nuclear Ambitions, Washington, D.C.:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,2006, pp.27-30.
4 "Iran announces further resumption of atomic Work," The Reuters,3 January 2006.
5 Volker Perthes and Eva Wegner, "Enriching the Options Europe, the United States, and Iran," Discussion Paper, German Institute for International and Security Affaires, June 2006, p.3.
1王建芬：“内贾德在联大发言批评美英滥用安理会职权”,《中国日报》2006年9月20日。
2 Ali Akbar Dareini, "Ahmadinejad:US Intel Report Positive," The Associated Press, December 11,2007.
3 John Ward Anderson and Daniela Deane, "Iran Threatens to Block U.N. Inspections," The Washington Post, January 13, 2006. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/13/AR2006011300335.html
4 http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Iran/1825_6279.html
5 "Iranian Lawmakers Threaten to Keep out UN Inspectors," Radio Free Europe, September 5,2006. http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/9/BC396899-E040-49BB-A925-EC7ADA18E461.html
1 UNSCR 1696. http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N06/450/22/PDF/N0645022.pdf?OpenElement
2 "Supreme Leader Lambasts US Hue and Cry over Iran's Nuke Plan," Islamic Republic News Agency,March 9,2006. http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2006/iran-060309-irna07.htm
3 Karl Vick, "Iran Rejects Russia's Proposal on Uranium," The Washington Post, March 13,2006,p.A12.
4 John War Anderson and Daniela Deane, "Iran Threatens to Block U.N. Inspections," The Washington Post, January 13, 2006.
1 Sam F. Ghattas, "Iran Proclaims Right to Nuclear Energy," The Associated Press, September 17,2007.
2 Nasser Karimi, "Iran Seeks Guarantees on Nuclear Fuel," The Associated Press, November 27,2005.
3 Dafna Linzer, "Iran Is Judged 10 Years From Nuclear Bomb:U.S. Intelligence Review Contrasts With Administration Statements," The Washington Post, August 2,2005, p.A01. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/01/AR2005080101453_pf.html
1 GOV/2005/77, September 24,2005.
2 Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress July 31,2006, p.15.
3 Anthony Barnett, "UK cleared nuclear cargo to fran," The Observer,8 January 2006.
4 Steven R. Weisman and Nazila Fathi, "Iranians Reopen Nuclear Centers," The New York Times, January 11,2006.
5 The Deputy Director General, "Developments in the Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran and Agency Verification of Iran's Suspension of Enrichment-related and Reprocessing Activities," IAEA, January 31,2006, p.3.
6 GOV/2006/14, February 4,2006.
1 GOV/2006/15, February 27,2006.
2 Nazila Fathi, David E. Sanger and William J. Broad, "Iran Says it is Making Nuclear Fuel, Defying U.N.," The New York Times,12 April 2006.
3 GOV/2006/27, April 28,2006
4 "Iran Allocates Funds to Finish first "Nuclear Pwer Pplant," The Associated Press, May 1,2006.
5 "Iran Achieves Higher Uranium Enrichment Level," Agence France Presse, May 2,2006
6 UNSCR 1696. http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N06/450/22/PDF/N0645022.pdf?OpenElement
7 IAEA, "Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran," GOV/2006/53, August 31, 2006; David Albright and Corey Hinderstein, "Clock Ticking but How Fast?" Institute for Strategic and International Studies, May 27,2006, pp.5-6, www.isis-online.org/publications/iran/clockticking.pdf; David Albright and Jacqueline Shire, "Iran's Centrifuge Program:Defiant but Delayed," Institute for Strategic and International Studies, August 31, 2006, www.isis-online.org/publications/iran/defiantbutdelayed.pdf
120世纪80年代,在“技术支持”项目下,国际原子能机构曾帮助伊朗获得铀。Mark Heinrich, "IAEA Suspends Some Nuclear Aid to Iran:Diplomats," The Reuters, January 17,2007.
2 GOV/2007/8, February 22,2007.
3 "Atomic Agency Confirms Advances by Iran's Nuclear Program," The New York Times, April 18,2007.
4 GOV/2007/22, May 23,2007.
5 GOV/2007/48, August 30,2007
1 GOV/2007/58, November 15,2007.
2 National Intelligence Council, "Iran:Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities", November 2007. http://www.dni.gov/press releases/20071203_release.pdf; Kaveh L Afrasiabi, "US Spies Concoct a Potent Iran Brew," Asia Times Online, December 5,2007; http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle East/IL05Ak01.html
3 "U.N. Sanctions Iran Anew over Nuclear Program:Security Council Bans Trade in Goods that have Both Civilian, Military Use," The Associated Press, March 3,2008.
1 Mitchell Reiss and Robert S. Litwak, Nuclear Proliferation after the Cold War, Washington DC:The Woodrow Wilson Center Press,1994, p.50.
1 George Bunn and John B. Rhinelander, "Reykjavik Revisited:Toward a World Free of Nuclear Weapons," WSI Policy Brief, September 2007, p.12.
2 Parama Sinha Palit, "US-Iran_ The Changing Dynamics and the Likelihood of a Conflict," Strategic Analysis, Vol.28, No.1, Jan-Mar 2004, p.105.
3 Gary Sick, "Iran:Confronting Terrorism," The Washington Quarterly,26:4, Autumn 2003,p.89; James Phillips and John C. Hulsman and James Jay Carafano, "Countering Iran's Nuclear Challenge," Backgrounder, No.1903, December 14,2005, p.3.
4 David Albright and Corey Hinderstein, "Iran, Player or Rogue?" Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2003, p.52-58; K. P. O'Reilly, "Perceiving Rogue States:The Use of the 'Rogue State' Concept by U.S. Foreign Policy Elites," Foreign Policy Analysis, Vol.3,2007, pp.295-315.
5 George W. Bush, "State of the Union Address", Washington, D.C., January 29,2001, www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/20020129-11.html
6 The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, March 16,2006, p.20. http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss/2006/nss2006.pdf
1 William O. Beeman, The Great "Satan" and the Mad "Mullahs":How the United States and Iran Demonize Each Other, Westport:Praeger Publishers,2005, pp,49-67.
2 Kenneth M. Pollack, The Persian Puzzle:the conflict between Iran and America, New York:Random House,2004, pp.400-416.
3 Shahram Chubin, "Whither Iran? Reform, Domestic Politics and National Security," Adelphi Papers, No.342, New York:Oxford University Press,2002, p.74.
4 Joseph Cirincione, Jon B. Wolfsthal and Miriam Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals:Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threats, Washington, D.C.:The Brookings Institution Press,2005, p.297.
3 Kenneth M. Pollack, "Bringing Iran to the Bargaining Table", Current History, Vol.105, Iss.694, November 2006, p.366.
1 Roger Howard, Iran in Crisis:Nuclear Ambition and the American Response, London and New York:Zed Books,2004, pp.68-81.
2唐志超：“中东国家核竞赛加剧及其影响”,《现代国际关系》2007年第1期,第45-46页。
3 "Gulf States Have Right to Nuclear Energy:UN Atomic Chief, Agence France Presse, April 122007.
4 Ilan Berman, Tehran Rising:Iran's Challenge to the United States, Lanham:Rowman & Littlefieid Publishers, Inc., 2005. ⅩⅦ.
5 Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress, July 31,2006, p.14.
6 Michael Eisenstadt, "Living with a Nuclear Iran," Survived., Vol.41, Iss.3, Summer 1999, pp.124-148.
7 Bruce W. Jentleson and Christopher A. Whytock, "Who Won Libya:The Force-Diplomacy Debate and Its Implication for Theory and Policy," International Security, Vol.30, No.3, Winter 2005/06, pp.47.
8 "Egypt will Pursue Nuclear Energy", Jerusalem Post, September 22,2006.
1 Mohammad Mohaddessin, Islamic Fundamentalism:The New Global Threat, Washington, D.C.:Steven Locks Press, 2001,pp.2-3.
2 Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World:US. Policy Dilemma, Washington, D.C.:The Brookings Institution,1979, p.56.
3 "Iran-Iraq Arms Non-Proliferation Act of 1992",102d Congress,2d session HR 5006, U.S.Congress, October 23, House of Representative,1992.
4 Hooman Estelami, "A Study of Iran's Response to U.S. Economic Sanctions," Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol.3, No.3, September 1999, p.54.
1其它包括：中国8.7；韩国5.9；阿联酋4.1；土耳其3.5；南非3.1；俄罗斯2.8；印度2.1等。Picture the Problem: Sanctioning Iran," The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2006-07, p.118.
2 Energy Information Administration, Country Profile:Iran, September 2000* Gawdat Bahgat, "US-Iran Realtions: Sanctions and the Caspian Sea," Security Dialogue, Vol.32, No.2, June 2001, p.232.
3 Sharon Squassoni and Marcia S. Smith, "The Iran Nonproliferation Act and the International Space Station:Issues and Options," CRS Report for Congress, Order Code RS22072, updated August 22,2005, pp.1-3;尽管如此,美国公司并没有一律地参加了对伊朗的经济制裁,迪克·切尼承认其在参加2000年总统大选时担任哈里伯顿公司总裁期间,继续通过代理人与利比亚及伊朗有商业往来。Colum Lynch, "Firm's Iraq Deals Greater Than Cheney Has Said," The Washington Post, June 23,2001.http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/sanction/iraql/oilforfood/2001/0627chen.htm
4 Meghan L. O'Sullivan, Shrewd Sanctions:Statecraft and State Sponsors of Terrorism, Washington, D.C.:Brookings Institution Press,2003, p.60.
5 http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Jan2002/d20020109npr.pdf; Keith B. Payne, "The Nuclear Posture Review:Setting the Record Straight," The Washington Quarterly.Vol.28,NO.3,Summer.2005,pp.145-151.
6 Barry Schweid, "State Dept. Sanctions 9 Foreign Companies for Iran Arms Sales," The Associated Press, December 27, 2005.
7 Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress, July 31,2006, p.17; Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress, October 4,2006, p.17.
8 Luis Martinez, "Nuclear 'Carrots and Sticks' for Iran:Proposal Offers Rewards, Punishment to Convince Iran to Dump Enrichment Program," ABC News, June 6,2006. Cited from Sharon Squassoni, "Iran's Nuclear Program:Recent Developments", CRS Report for Congress, July 20,2006, p.6.
9 Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress July 31,2006, p.17.
1 Glenn Kessler, "U.S. Moves to Isolate Iranian Banks," The Washington Post, September 9,2006, p. All; Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, "Forcing Hard Choices on Tehran Raising the Costs of Iran's Nuclear Program", Policy Focus #62, November 2006, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, p.13.在此之前,美国就已经切断了Bank Saderat与美国银行的商业关系,这次美国主要切断了Bank Saderat与非伊朗银行的美元交易。Glenn Kessler, "U.S. Moves to Isolate Iranian Banks," The Washington Post, September 9,2006, p.Al 1.
2 U.S. Congress, Iran Freedom Support Act, P.L.109-293, September 30,2006. http://www.iranwatch.org/government/US/Congress/Legislation/us-congress-iranfreedomact-093006.pdf
3 "US Warns Iran it Could Face Similar Sanctions to North Korea," VOA News, October 16,2006.
4 Henry Sokolski and Patrick Clawson, "Checking Iran's Nuclear Ambitions," The Strategic Studies Institute, January 2004, p.4.
5 SC Resolution 1737 (2006), December 23,2006.
1 SC Resolution 1747 (2007), March 24,2007.
2 Robin Wright, "U.S. to Impose New Sanctions Targeting Iran's Military," The Washington Post, October 25,2007 p.A01.
3 Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress, July 31,2006, p.14.
4 http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/01/20060131-10.html; Barry Schweid, "Bush:Won't Allow A Nuclear-Armed Iran," The Associated Press, September 5,2006.
5 Michael A. Fletcher and Keith B. Richburg, "Bush Tries to Allay EU Worries over Iran," The Washington Post, February 23,2005. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A43199-2005Feb22.html; Golnaz Esfandiari, "Iran/U.S.:Bush Says All Options on the Table for Tehran's Nuclear Program,"Radio Free Europe, January 18,2005. http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/01/116e4efa-364c-4e09-aa9f-381cb5140da8.html
6 John R. Bolton, "Preventing Iran from Acquiring Nuclear Weapons," Hudson Institute, August 17,2004, http://www.state.gov/t/us/rm/35281.htm.
7 Committee on the Present Danger, "Iran:A New Approach," December 20,2004. http://www.fightingterror.org/newsroom/CPD_Iran_policy_paper.pdf.
1 Tom Squitieri, "Top General Warns Iran not to Underestimate U.S. Military," USA Today, November 28,2004.
2 Bernard Gwertzman, "Kissinger:Don't Exclude Military Action Against Iran if Negotiations Fail," Council of Foreign Relations, July 14,2005. http://www.cfr.org/publication.html?id=8255
3 Ria Novosti, "Bush Refuses to Rule out Military Action against Iran," December 4,2007 http://www.globalsecurity.or/wmd/library/news/iran/2007/iran-071204-rianovosti01.htm
4 Kenneth M. Pollack, The Persian Puzzle:The Conflict between Iran and America, New York:Random House,2004, pp.400-416; Kenneth M. Pollack, "Iran:Three Alternative Futures," The Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol.10. No.2. June 2006.
5 Elizabeth Bumiller, "Bush May Weigh the Use of Incentives to Dissuade Iran," The New York Times, February 22, 2005.
1 Robert J. Einhorn, "A Transatlantic Strategy on Iran's Nuclear Program," The Washington Quarterly, Vol.27, No.4, Autumn 2004, pp.21-32.
2 Jared Cohen, "Iran's Young Opposition:Youth in Post-Revolutionary Iran," SAIS Review, Vol. XXVI, No.2, Summer-Fall 2006, p.15.
3 FY 2006 Supplemental Budget Request, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Opening Remarks before the Senate Appropriations Committee, Washington, March 9,2006. http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2006/62900.htm
4余火：“美国重金策反伊朗,强化波斯语广播,资助反政府团体”,《环球时报》2006年2月21日。
5 "Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice On Fox News with Brit Hume," December 15,2005. http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2005/58184.htm
6 John Roberts, "Rice Says Iran Rejected Peaceful Civilian Nuclear Program," January 13,2006. http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2006/iran-060113-usia01.htm
7 Emily B.Landau, "US Engagement with Iran:The Moment of Truth in the Nuclear Crisis?" JCSS, Tel-Aviv Notes, No.173, June 6,2006, http://www.tau.ac.il/jcss/tanotes/Taunotes173.doc.
1张万伟： “美国国防部长：不是不打而是暂不打伊朗”, 《青年参考》2006年9月20日。
2 "Gates again Invokes Possible Iran Strike," The Associated Press, November 20,2007.
3 Colum Lynch and Dafna Linzer, "Rice Warns Iran It Risks Further U.N. Sanctions:Report Finds Continued Nuclear Defiance," The Washington Post, February 23,2007, p.AOl.
4 "Statement by the President of the Security Council, S/PRST/2006/15," United Nations, March 29,2006.
5 http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N06/290/88/PDF/N0629088.pdf?OpenElement;由于这份决议缺乏安理会赋予的强制效力,未能满足美国的愿望。Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress, July 31,2006, p.16.
6 Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress July 31,2006, p.17 Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress October 4,2006, p.17.
7 UNSCR1696. http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N06/450/22/PDF/N0645022.pdf?OpenElement
1这个概念从“延伸威慑”引申出来的,参见Paul K. Huth, Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War, New Haven and London:Yale University Press,1988; John Arquilla and Paul K. Davis, Extended Deterrence, Compellence and the "Old World Order," Santa Monica:Rand,1992; Vesna Danilovic, "The Sources of Threat Credibility in Extended Deterrence," Journal of'Conflict Resolution, Vol.45, No.3, June 2001, pp.341-369. Kathleen J. Mcinnis, "Extended Deterrence:The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East," The Washington Quarterly, Vol.28, No.3, Summer 2005, pp.169-186; Frak C. Zagare and D. Marc Kilgour, Perfect Deterrence, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2000, pp.167-196.
2美国防止核扩散政策具有4个基本原则：1.任何国家的核地位必须公开,行为必须符合国际规范；2.减弱一些国家试图拥有核地位的动机,改变它们对拥有核武器就意味着成为世界性大国或者核武器是国家实力最重要衡量标准的认知；3.使用政治、经济甚至军事手段改变一些危及地区或国际安全国家的核地位；4.强调核设施的安全与保险(security and safety). Stephen J. Cimbala, Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation in the Twenty-first Century, London:Praeger Publishers,2001, p.111.
1 Meghan L.0'Sullivan, Shrewd Sanctions:Statecraft and State Sponsors of Terrorism, Washington, D.C.:Brookings Institution Press,2003, p.67.
2 Stephen J. Cimbala, Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation in the Twenty-first Century, London:Praeger Publishers, 2001, p.104.
3王兴栋：“专家：美国对伊朗制裁措施无实质意义”,《新闻晚报》2007年10月26日。
4 See:Benjamin S. Lambeth, The Transformation of American Air Power, Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press,2000.
5 Zvi Shtauber and Yiftah S. ShapiT, The Middle East Strategic Balance 2005-2006, Brighton·Portland:Sussex Academic Press,2007, p.40.
6 Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, "Forcing Hard Choices on Tehran Raising the Costs of Iran's Nuclear Program", Policy Focus #62, November 2006, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, p.26.
7 Ephraim Kam, "A Nuclear Iran:What Does it Mean, and What Can be Done," Memorandum 88, Institute for National Strategic Studies, February 2007, p.69.
1 Christopher de Bellaigue, "Defiant Iran," The New York Review of Books, Vol.53, No.17, November 2,2006; Gary Samore, "Meeting Iran's Nuclear Challenge," Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, No.21, October 2004. http://www.wmdcommission.org/files/No20.pdf
2 Zbigniew Brzezinski and Robert Gates and Suzanne Maloney, "Iran:Time for a New Approach," Independent Task Force Report, No.52, New York:Council on Foreign Relations,2004, p.41.
3 Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, "Forcing Hard Choices on Tehran Raising the Costs of Iran's Nuclea Program", Policy Focus #62, November 2006, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, pp.4-8.
1 Emily B. Landau, Ephraim Asculai, and Noam Ophir, "Stepping Up the Pressure? The International Commuity Faces Iran", in Zvi Shtauber and Yiftah S. Shapir, The Middle East Strategic Balance 2005-2006, Brighton·Portland:Sussex Academic Press,2007, p.35.
1 Sam Gardinar, "The End of the "Summer of Diplomacy":Assessing U.S. Military Options on Iran," A Century Foundation Report 2006. http://securingamerica.com/pages/gardiner_summer_diplomacy.pdf;美国甚至也可以借鉴20世纪70年代中美关系解冻,尼克松总统对中国选择的接触政策。James Dobbins, "Coping with Iran:Confrontation, Containment or Engagement? A Conference Report," Santa Monica:Rand Corporation,2007, pp.58-59.
2 Michael McFaul, Abbas Milani, and Larry Diamond, "A Win-Win U.S. Strategy for Dealing with Iran," The Washington Quarterly, Vol.30, No.1, Winter 2006-2007, p.137.
1 Shahram Chubin, Iran's National Security Policy:Intentions, Capabilities,& Impact, Washington, D.C.:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,1994, pp.53-5; Shahram Chubin, Whither Iran? Reform, Domestic Politics, and National Security, New York:Oxford University Press,2002, pp.71-85.
2 George Perkovich, "Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Challenge," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 28, 2003. http://www.ceip.org/files/projects/npp/pdf/Iran/iraniannuclearchallenge.pdf
1 Paul Rivlin, "Iran's Energy Vulnerability," Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol.10, No.4 December 2006, pp.103-116.
2核能是目前唯一可供替代化石燃料的最经济的基荷电力来源,可以减少温室气体的排放。参见“核工业复兴”,《国外核新闻》2006年第9期,第1页。
3焦玉奎：“核危机凸显伊朗的中东大国地位”,《西亚非洲》2006年第3期,第5-10页。
4 http.7/www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/doctrine.htm
5 Kenneth M. Pollack, "Bringing Iran to the Bargaining Table", Current History, Vol.105, Iss.694, November 2006, p.365.
6 Gawdat Bahgat, "Nuclear Proliferation:The Islamic Republic of Iran," International Studies Perspectives, Vol.7, No.2, May 2006, p.134.
7 William C. Martel, "Proliferation and Pragmatism:Nonproliferation Policy for the Twenty-First Century," in Stephen J. Cimbala, Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation in the Twenty-first Century, London:Praeger Publishers,2001, p.106.
1 "An Unnecessary Crisis—Setting the Record Straight about Iran's Nuclear Program." The New York Times, November 18,2005.
2 Christiane Amanpour, "Transcript of Interview with Iranian President Mohammad Khatami," Cable. News Network, January 7,1998; Nikki R. Keddie and Rudi Matthee, Iran and the Surrounding World:Interactions in Cultyre and Cultural Politics, Seattle and London:University of Washington Press,2002, p.367
3 "Iran's President—His Own Words," BBC News, January 16,2006.
4 Robert Jervis, "The Political Effects of Nuclear Weapons:A Comment," in Sean M. Lynn-Jones, The Cold War and After:Prospects for Peace, London and Cambridge:The MIT Press,1991, p.70.
5 Statement by H.E. Reza Aghazadeh Vice-President of the Islamic Republic of Iran and President of the Atomic Energy Organization Of Iran at the 46th General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, September 16, 2002, pp.1-2. http://www.iranatom.ru/reports/rep010.pdf
11996年9月25日,以色列政府签署了《全面核禁试条约》,但以色列议会至今未批准该条约。尽管国际社会普遍质疑以色列核计划的和平性质,并多次在国际裁军会议上对以色列施加压力,但是以色列政府至今未签署《不扩散核武器条约》。
2 Statement by H.E. Reza Aghazadeh Vice-President of the Islamic Republic of Iran and President of the Atomic Energy Organization Of Iran at the 46th General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, September 16, 2002, p.3. http://www.iranatom.ru/reports/rep010.pdf
3 Shahram Chubin, Iran's Nuclear Ambitions, Washington, D.C.:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,2006, p.l.
4 Shahram Chubin and Robert S. Litwak, "Debating Iran's Nuclear Aspirations," The Washington Quarterly, Vol.26, No.4, Autumn 2003, p.113.
1 "Iran Wants to Settle Its Nuclear Dossier at IAEA:Secutiry Chief," Mehr News Agency, March 10,2005.
1 "Iranian Oil Bourse," http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Oil_Bourse
2 Nazila Fathi and Andrew E. Kramer, "With Threats of Sanctions, Iran Protects Some Assets, The New York Times, January 21,2006, A.5; Molly Moore, Iran Shifts Funds Out of E.U. Banks, The Washington Post January 21,2006, A.16; David E. Sanger, "Iranian Threatens Full Production of Nuclear Fuel," The New York Times, January 23,2006, A5.
3 Nugzar Ter-Oganov, "The Russia-Iranian Nuclear Cooperation," Iran Pulse, No.5, November 5,2006.
4 Kenneth Katzman, "The Iran Sanctions Act (ISA)," CRS Report for Congress, Order Code RS20871, Updated October 12,2007, p.4.
5 http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/wjb/zzjg/xybfs/gjlb/1444/default.htm
6 "Iran, China Finalise two Billion Dollar Oil Contract," Agence France Presse, December 9,2007. http://www.afp.com/english/news/stories/071209215502.ffutnxfy.html
1 Terence Hunt, "Bush Strongly Warns Iran on Naval Clash," The Associated Press, January 10,2008.
2 "Khatami:Iran Will Defend Against U.S. Attack," The Associated Press, January 20,2005. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,144956,00.html
3 "Iran Threatens'Crushing'Response If Attacked," Newsmax, January'2,2006.
4 Neda Bolourchi, "Bombs and Bombast in Iran," Apr 21,2006. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HD21Ak03.html
5 Steve Schippert, "Iran Defense:New Doctrine, Old Doctrine," August 21,2006. http://threatswatch.org/inbrief/2006/08/iran-defense-new-doctrine-old/; Nazila Fathi, "Iran Launches 10 Missiles in Exercise:War Games Precede Nuclear Deadline," International Herald Tribune, August 21,2006. http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/08/20/news/iran.php
6 Uzi Rubin, "The Global Reach of Iran's Ballistic Missiles," Memorandum 86, Tel Aviv:Institute for National Studies, November 2006, pp.17-24.
7 Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress, Order Code RL32048, Updated December 4,2006, pp.13-14.
1 http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2007/iran-071020-riarrovosti01.htm
2 "Iran condemns hostage taking in Iraq-Asefi," Islamic Republic News Agency, April 17,2005. http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iraq/2005/04/iraq-050417-irna01.htm
32007年10月20日,拉里贾尼辞职,负责欧洲与美国事务的外交部副部长赛义德·贾利利接替拉里贾尼,出任首席核谈代表。
4 "First Direct Official Contact between the two Countries in 27 Years", The Washington Post, May 9,2006.
1 "Mahmoud Ahmadinejad:'Nuclear Issue of Iran Is Now Closed'," The Associated Press, September 26,2007. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,297935,00.html
z "Europe to Offer Iran Benefits," The Washington Post, August 1,2005.
1华黎明：“伊朗核问题与中国外交的选择”, 《国际问题研究》2007年第1期,第60-61页。
1 General Accounting Office, "Iran Sanctions:Impact in Furthering U.S. Objectives Is Unclear and Should Be Reviewed," December 2007, p.26. http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d0858.pdf
2 http://www.china5e.com/news/oil/200709/200709060113.html
1因此,我们可以发现,伊朗在国际核不扩散和军控机制中的活动相当积极。Gerald M. Steinberg, "Can Diplomacy Still Prevent Iran from Going Nuclear?" Jerusalem Issue Brief, Vol.5, No.1, December 1,2005. http://www.jcpa.org/brief/brief0O5-11.htm
1 Stephen J. Cimbala, Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation in the Twenty-first Century, London:Praeger,2001, p,28.
2 Daryl G. Press, Calculating Credibility:Bow Leaders Assess Military Threats, Ithaca and London:Cornell University Press,2005, p.11.
3 Tanya Glaser, "Conflict Research Consortium", http://www.colorado.edu/conflict/peace/example/geor2638.htm
1门洪华：“国际机制与美国霸权”, 《美国研究》2001年第1期,第81页。
2 http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xls,2008-3-27.
3 http://www.qqfx.com/subject/gold/gold_5_7.htm
4 http://www.nationalpriorities.org/world_military_spending
5 http://mil.news.sohu.com/20071012/n252617161.shtml
6 "U.S. Nuclear Weapon Enduring Stockpile," http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Weapons/Wpngall.html
1赵楚：“战略速胜论：美国对伊朗问题军事选择的一种前瞻”,《国际展望》2006年第11期,卷首语。
2 http://www.tm.ncinfo.gov.cn/news.asp?temp= 1&classcode=501&keyno=336
3 "Compendium of Patent Statistics 2007," http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/5/19/37569377.pdf
4“2006年美国登记专利大增”,《电子产品世界》2007年第3期,第28页。
5 Jubin M. Goodarzi, Syria and Iran:Diplomatic Alliance and Power Politics in the Middle East, London and New York: Tauris Academic Studies,2006孙德刚：“叙利亚与伊朗准联盟关系浅析”,《阿拉伯世界研究》2006年第6期。
1 Zahra Hosseinian, "Iran's Top Cleric Calls for Clean Election," The Reuters, January 2 2008.
2为美国在伊朗伊斯兰革命之前出售给巴列维政权时的飞机,在美国早已被淘汰,但经改进后,目前仍为伊朗空军的主力战机。
3 James Devine and Julian Schofield, "Coercive Counter-Proliferation and Escalation:Assessing the Iran Military Option," Defense & Security Analysis, Vol.22, No.2, June 2006, pp.146;赵青海：“伊朗军力有多强”, 《世界知识》2005年第6期,第41页。
4 Robin Wright, "Elite Revolutionary Guard Broadens Its Influence in Iran," The Washington Post, April 1,2007, A2I; Greg Bruno, "Iran's Revolutionary Guards," Council on Foreign Relations, October25,2007;另有材料显示：革命卫队总兵力约30万人。其中,陆军约26.2万人,编成27个师和16个独立旅,主要装备有坦克500余辆、装甲运兵车500余辆,火炮1000余门。海军2万人,编成个3海防区,主要装备有各型巡逻艇余艘,导弹快艇21艘和岸防导弹等。空军1.8万人,编成8个中队、3个地对地导弹旅和1个防空导弹旅,装备各型号飞机110架、“飞毛腿”B、C等型号导弹数百枚。参见高广东、于洋、魏立英：“‘铁骑禁卫军’——伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队透视”,《当代世界》2006年第5期,第55页。
5 Lionel Beehner, "Russia-Iran Arms Trade," Congressional Research Service, November 1,2006. http://www.cfr.org/publication/11869/
1然而,2007年9月28日,以色列空军在美国空军的掩护下,躲过了叙利亚购买俄罗斯的“道尔”-M1导弹防空系统,轰炸了叙利亚1处所谓的“核设施”,有专家分析,这次袭击行动应该视为以色列准备空袭伊朗核设施时躲避伊朗防空系统的演练。
2 http://mil.news.sohu.com/s2006/siguojunliduibi/
3 Caspar W. Weinberger, "U.S. Defense Strategy", Foreign Affairs, Spring,1986, p.684. Christopher M. Gacek, The Logic of Force:The Dilemma of Limited War in American Foreign Policy, New York:Columbia University Press,1994,pp.165-166.这就是所谓的“温伯格/鲍威尔条例(Weinberger/Powell Doctrine)
1 Charles William Maynes, "The Limitations of Force," in The Aspen Strategy Group, The United States and the Use of Force in the Post-Cold War Era, Queenstown:The Aspen Institute,199S, pp.19-38.
2 Steven Mufson, "Strike on Iran Would Roil Oil Markets, Experts Say," The Washington Post, October 26,2007, A01
3赵伟明：“两伊冲突的历史根源”,《世界历史》1995年第5期,第122-126页Shahram Chubin and Charles Tripp, Iran and Iraq and War, Boulder:Westview Press,1988.
4 Trita Parsi, "Iran and Israel:The Avoidable War," Middle East Policy, Vol.14, No.3, Fall 2007, p.80.
1 Kenneth Schultz, Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2002, Introduction.
1 http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/, March 20,2008; In reference to:Amy Belasco, "The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11," CRS Report for Congress, Updated February 8, 2008.
2 Adrian Hyde-Price, "Justice and the American Way of War", AICGS Advisor, July 1,2004, pp.120-121.
3值得注意的是,从近一段时间来看,特别是默克尔任德国总理后,在伊朗核问题上,法德与美国关系迅速走近,欧洲正逐渐丧失自己的特色,似乎丧失了成为国际体系重要一极的作用。
4 All M. Ansari, Confronting Iran:The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Next Great Crisis in the Middle East, New York:Basic Books,2006, p.217.
5宪法监护委员会往往通过遴选和审批关键大选候选人资格左右伊朗政局,例如,广泛认为,2005年,代表伊朗新保守势力的内贾德击败改革派、当选总统与宪法监护委员会的干预具有直接关系。Frederic Tellier, "The Iranian Moment," Policy Focus #52, Washington, DC:The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, February 2006.
1参见叶青：《伊斯兰教与后冷战时期中东国际关系中的双重认知问题研究》,复旦大学博士论文,2007年,第105页。
2 Phyllis Bennis, et al, "Iran in the Crosshairs:How to Prevent Washington's Nest War," Washingtong D.C.:Institute for Policy Studies, p.19. http://www.fpif.org/pdf/reports/0802iranprimer.pdf
3李薇：“跨过核门槛是伊朗人的民族情结”,《海峡都市报》2006年3月17日。
4 Anthony C. Cain, "Iran's Strategic Culture and Weapons of Mass Destruction:Implications of US Policy," Maxwell Paper No.26, Air War College, April 2002, pp.5-6.
5 Glenn H. Snyder and Paul Diesing, Conflict among Nations:Bargaining, Decision Making and System Structure in International Crisis, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1977, p.340.
6 Friedrich V. Kratochwil, Rules, Norms, and Decisions:On the Conditions of Practical and Legal Reasoning in International Relations and Domestic Affairs, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1995, pp.151-248.
1 Wilfried Buchta, Who Rules Iran? The Structure of Power in the Islamic Republic, Washington, D.C.:Washington Institute of Near East Policy,2000, p.25.
2 Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, London:The President and Fellows of Harvard College,1980, p.28.
3 Greg Miller, "57% Back a Hit on Iran if Defiance Persists," Los Angeles Times, January 27,2006.
1 "Poll:Americans Nervous about Iran:Bush's Approval Rating Drops to 39 Percent," February 14,2006 http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/02/13/poll.iran/;李月：“美国民意：伊朗成为美国最大的敌人”,《华盛顿观察》2006年3月2日。
2 Philip Everts, Democracy and Military Force, London:Palgrave,2002.
3 Gregory L. Schulte, "In Bush Speech, Signs of Split on Iran Policy," The New York Times, September 16,2007.
1 "Iranian Parliament Moves To Suspend UN Nuclear Checks," Radio Free Europe, September 28,2005. http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2005/iran-050928-rfer101.htm
2 Intenational Crisis Group, "Iran:Is There a Way Out of the Nuclear Impasse," Middle East Report No.51, February 23, 2006, p.8.
3李焰：“‘死胡同’不死,伊朗核危机仍有出路”,《华盛顿观察》2006年第5期。
1 James A. Russell, Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East:Directions and Policy Options in the New Century, New York:Palgrave MacmillanTM,2006, p.56.
2 International Crisis Group, "Iran's Political/Nuclear Ambitions and U.S. Policy Options", U.S.Senate Foreign Relations Committee, May 18,2006. http://foreign.senate.gov/testimony/2006/SadjadpourTestimony060517.pdf
3 Colum Lynch, "Envoy:Iran to Continue its Nuclear Power Effect; U.S. Claims of Weapons Program Called 'Untrue'," The Washington Post, March 13,2003.
4 Scott MacLeod znd Nahid Siamdoust and Andrew Purvis, "Iran Still Defiant," Time, Vol.164, Iss.23, December 2004.
5 http://hahnews.blogspot.com/200602_01_archive.html;
6尽管拉夫桑贾尼也往往被认为起相对保守的伊朗领导人之一
7 Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, "Forcing Hard Choices on Tehran Raising the Costs of Iran's Nuclear Program", Policy Focus #62, November 2006, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, ⅷ.
1 Brenda Shaffer, Partners in Need:The Strategic Relationship of Russia and Iran, Policy Paper, No.57, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy,2001, pp.5-29.
2 Robert O. Freedman, "Russia, Iran, and the Nuclear Question:The Putin Record" Jerusalem Viewpoints, No.544,2 July 2006, http://www.jcpa.org/jl/vp544.htm; Vladimir A. Orlov and Alexander Vinnikov, "The Great Guessing Game: Russia and the Iranian Nuclear Issue," The Washington Quarterly, Vol.28, No.2, Spring 2005, p.57.
3 "Entire Bushehr Project under IAEA Control, Says Russian," Islamic Republic News Agency, March 3,2005. http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/russia/2005/russia-050303-irna01.htm
1 "Russian FM:Moscow Keen to Expand Cooperation, Ties with Tehran," Islamic Republic News Agency, Sept 12, 2005.http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2005/iran-050912-irna01.htm
2 "Remarks With Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov:Secretary Condoleezza Rice," October 15,2005. http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2005/55163.htm
3 Tom Sauer, "Iran:A Test for EU Coercive Diplomacy," CFSP Forum, Vol.2, Iss.6, November 2004, pp.1-15.
4 Bruce Jentleson, "Coercive Diplomacy:Scope and Limits in the Contemporary Worid", Policy Analysis Briefs, December 2006, p.10.
52006年1月,中国进口伊朗原油190万吨,同比上涨75%,伊朗一度超过沙特和安哥拉,成为中国的头号供油国。http://www.heavyoil.cn/news/2006-5-1092135.htm
6 Kyodo "China Becomes Iran's BiggestTrade Partner in 2006, Replacing Japan," Kyodo News, September 9,2007. http://asia.news. yahoo.com/070909/kyodo/d8rhkino0.html
1 Dingli Shen, "Iran's Nuclear Ambitions Test China's Wisdom," The Washington Quarterly, Vol.29, No.2, Spring 2006, pp.55-66.
2杨川：“李肇星会见伊朗外长和联合国秘书长”,新华网,2006年2月1日。
3 "Israeli President Brands Iran'Centre of Global Terror'," Agence France Presse, October 8,2007.
4 Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a Speech Given in Southeastern Fran, December 14,2005.
5 Remarks by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during a meeting with protesting students at the Iranian Interior Ministry, October 25,2005; Meir Rosenne, et al., Referral of Iranian President Ahmadinejad on the Charge of Incitement to Commit Genocide, Jerusalem:Edna Weinstock-Gabay,2007; Mike Rogers, "Recognizing Iran as a Strategic Threat: An Intelligence Challenge for the United States," Staff Report of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Subcommittee on Intelligence Policy, August 23,2006, p.3.
1 Mikhail Gorbachev, "The Nuclear Threat," The Wall Street Journal, January 31,2007; George Bunn & John B. Rhinelander, "Reykjavik Revisited:Toward a World Free of Nuclear Weapons," WSI Policy Brief, September 2007, p.2.
2欧叶：“以色列吁国际社会联合对抗伊朗发展核武器”,《中国日报》2006年2月15日。
3 Yaakov Katz, "Israel:IAEA's Report 'Unacceptable'," The Jerusalem Post, November16,2007.
4 Whitney Raas and Austin Long, "Osirak Redux? Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities," International Security, Vol.31, No.4, Spring 2007, pp.7-33; Uzi Mahnaimi & Sarah Baxter, "Israel Readies forces for Strike on Nuclear Iran," Sunday Times, December 11,2005; Anne Penketh, "Israel Raises Nuclear Stakes with Iran," The Independent, January 25,2007.
5 Ze'ev Schiff, "Israel's War with Iran," Foreign Affairs, Vol.85, No.6,2006, p.31.
6 Raula Khalaf and Gareth Smyth, "Iran Warns against UN Referral,"Financial Times, January-22,2006.
'GOV/2006/14, February 4,2006, p.2.
8赵伟明：“挑战美国地位,重塑大国形象——俄罗斯对中东战略的变化与俄美关系”,《西亚非洲》2007年第10期。
9 Gerald M. Steinberg, "Can Diplomacy still Prevent Iran Going Nuclear?" Jerusalem Issue Brief, Vol.5, No.11, December 1,2005. http://www.jcpa.org/briefybrief005-11.htm
1 Bruce Jentleson, "Coercive Diplomacy:Scope and Limits in the Contemporary World", Policy Analysis Briefs, December 2006, p.10.
2虽然中国与伊朗签署了多项能源合作开发与开采协议,但一些至今尚未能得到伊朗议会的批准,未能得以实施。
1 Jahangir Amuzegar, "Nuclear Iran:Perils and Prospects," Middle East Policy, Vol.ⅩⅢ, No.2, Summer 2006 p.107.
2 Volker Perthes and Eva Wegner, "Enriching the Options Europe, the United States,and Iran," Discussion Paper, German Institute for International and Security Affaires, June 2006, pp.3-4.
3“俄法德西就伊朗核问题达成一致”,《新京报》2005年3月20日。
1 GOV/2005/77,24 September 2005.
2李新：“民意调查：多数欧洲人不认为伊朗对其构成核威胁”,《中国日报》2005年3月31日。
3尤其是美欧,往往将伊朗核问题与伊朗问题等同或混淆看待,希望将通过伊朗核问题解决伊朗问题。
1 http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/05/30/news/iran.php; http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2006-09/17/content_5100554.htm
2 The Philological Society, The Oxford English Dictionary (Volume Ⅺ:Y-U), Oxford:Oxford University Press,1978, p.352.
3 David J. Myers, Regional Hegemons:Threat Perception and Strategic Response, Boulder and Oxford:Westview Press, 1991, p.3.
4 David Baldwin, "Thinking about Threats," Jourral of Conflict Resolution, Vol.15,No.1,1971, pp.71-78.
5 Charles Hermann, "International Crisis as a Situational Variable," in James N. Rosenau, International Politics and Foreign Policy:A Reader in Research and Theory, New Vork:The Free Press,1969, pp.411-416.
6 Stephen J. Cimbala, Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation in the Twenty-first Century, London:Praeger,2001, p.97.
7 Paul C. Stern, and Daniel Druckman, International Conflict Resolution after the Cold War, Washington, D.C.:National Academy Press,2000, pp.95-96.
8 David Singer, "Threat-Perception and the Armament Tension Dilemma," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.2,No.2,1958,pp.93-94.在这里,辛格相对忽视了威胁认知的非理性与无意识性。
1 Dean G. Pruitt, "Definition of the Situation as a Determinant pf International Action," in Hebert C. Kelman, International Behavior:A Social-Psychological Analysis, New York:Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Inc.,1965, p.400.
2 David L. Rousseau and Rocio Garcia-Retamero, "Identity, Power, and Threat Perception:A Cross-National Experimental Study, "Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.51, No.5, October 2007, p.745.
3 Kenneth E. Boulding, Ecodynamics:A New Theory of Societal Evolution, Beverly Hill:Sage Publications,1978, p.157.
4 Steven J. Brams and D. Marc Kilgour, Game Theory and National Security, New York and Oxford:Basil Blackwell Inc.,1988, p.173.
5 John H. Herz, International Politics in the Atomic Age, New York and London:Columbia University Press,1963, p.231: The Nation-State and The Crisis of World Politics:Essays on International Politics in the Twentieth Century, David Mackay Company, Inc., 1976, pp.72-73.
6 Barry Buzan, People, States and Fear:an Agenda for International Security Studies in the Post-Cold War Era, Hemel Hempstead:Harvester Wheatsheaf,1991, p.295.
7罗伯特·杰维斯：《国际政治中的知觉与错误知觉》,秦亚青译,世界知识出版社,2003年版,第83页。
8 Robert Jervis, "Realism, Game theory, and Cooperation", World Politics, Vol.40, April 1988, p.317.
9 Robert Jervis, "Cooperation under the Security Dilemma", World Politics, Vol.30, No.2, January 1978, pp.186-214.
1 Jo-Anne Hart, "Perceptions and Courses of Actions toward Iran," Military Review, September-October 2005, p.10.
2 Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics among Nations:The Struggle for Power and Peace, New York:Alfred A. Knopf, Inc., 1949, pp.125-166.
3罗伯特·0.基欧汉：《新现实主义及其批判》,郭树勇译,北京大学出版社,2002年版。
4 Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, Cambridge:Cambridge Vniversity Press,1999.
5 John J. Mearsheimer, Conventional Deterrence, Ithaca and London:Cornell University Press,1983.
6哈伦·厄尔曼,詹姆斯·韦德：《震慑与畏惧—迅速制敌之道》,腾建群,王春生等译,新华出版社,2003年版,第5-6页。
7 William W. Keller and Gordon R. Mitchell, Hittling First:Preventive Force in U.S. Security Strategy, Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, pp.3-26.
8刘阿明,王联合：“先发制人与预防性战争辨析——以布什政府国家安全战略为例”,《学术探索》2004年第11期,第68-72页。
1 Raymond Cohen, Threat Perception in international Crisis, Wisconsin:Wisconsin Press,1979, p.4, pp.79-83.
2 Klaus Knorr, Historical Dimension of National Security Problems, Kansas:Lawrence,1976, p.78.
3 Ben D. Mor, Decision and Interaction in Crisis:A Model of International Crisis Behavior, Westport:Praege Publishers,1993, p.4.
4 Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1987.
5 Arnold Wolfers, Discord and Collaboration:Essays on International Politics, Baltimore:the John Hopkins Press,1962, pp.182-183.
6邱美荣：“威胁认知与朝核危机”,《当代亚太》2005年第6期,第6页。
1 J. David Singer, Deterrence, Arms Control, and Disarmament:Toward a Synthesis in National Security Policy, Lanham and New York and London:University Press of America,1984, p.57.
2 Phyllis Bennis, et al, "Iran in the Crosshairs:How to Prevent Washington's Nest War," Washington D.C.:Institute for Policy Studies, February 2008, p.7. http://www.fpif.org/pdf/reports/0802iranprimer.pdf
3但并不表示不重视伊朗的军事能力。一旦战争爆发,伊朗必然不会与美国硬碰硬,而会采用“你打你的,我打我的”战略,即躲避美国的正面进攻,集中打击美国容易受伤的薄弱环节。
1 A.F.K.Organsky, World Politics, New York:Alfred A. Knopf,1958; A.F.K.Organsky and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger, Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1980; David Dapkin and William R. Thompson, "Power Transition, Challenge and the (Re)Emergence of China," International Interactions, Vol.29,2003, pp.317-321.
1 Andrew M. Scott, "A Challenge-Response Theory of International Relations," American Behavioural Scientist, Vol.1, 1958, pp.24-26.
2 Richard Smoke, War:Controlling Escalation, London:Harvard University Press,1977, p.27.
3 John H. Herz, "Idealist Internationalism and Security Dilemma," World Politics, Vol.2, No.2, January 1950, pp.157-158; John H. Herz, Political Realism and Political Idealism, Chicago:Chicago University Press,1951, p.3.
4 Herbert Butterfield, History and Human Relations, London:Collins,1951, p.21.
5罗伯特·杰维斯：《国际政治中的知觉与错误知觉》,秦亚青译,世界知识出版社,2003年版,第68-69页。
6 Lisa J. Carlson. "A Theory of Escalation and International Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.39, No.3, September 1995, p.53.
7 Dean Pruitt and Jeffrey Z. Rubin and Sung Hee Kim, Social conflict:Escalation, Stalemate and Settlement, New York: McGraw-Hill,1994, p.69.
8 Michael S. Lund, Preventing Violent Conflicts:A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy, Washington D.C.:United States Institute for Peace,1996.
1 I. William Zartman and Guy Olivier Faure, Escalation and Negotiation in International Conflicts, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2004, pp.7-8.
2 Richard Ned Lebow, Nuclear Crisis Management:A Dangerous Illusion, Ithaca and London:Cornell University Press, 1987, p.105.
3 In reference to Frank C. Zagare and D. Marc Kilgour, Perfect Deterrence, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2000, p.181.
1 In reference to Frank C. Zagare and D. Marc Kilgour, Perfect Deterrence, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2000, p.193.
2关于攻防理论的详细评述,参见Jack S. Levy, "The Offensive/Defensive Balance of Military Technology:A Theoretical and Historical Analysis", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.38, No.2, June 1984, pp.219-238; Sean M. Lynn-Jones, "Offense-Defense Theory and Its Critics," Security Studies, Vol.4, No.4, Summer1995, pp.660-691; Stephen Van Evera, "Offense, Defense, and the Causes of War," International Security,Vol.22.No.4, Spring 1998, pp.5-43; Charles L. Glaser and Chaim Kaufmann, "What is the Offense-Defense Balance and Can We Measure it?" International Security, Vol.22, No.4, Spring 1998, pp.44-82; Biddle Stephen, "Rebuilding the Foundations of Offense-Defense Theory," Journal of Politics, Vol.63, Issue.3, August 2001, pp.741-774; Karen Ruth Adams, "Attack and Conquer? International Anarchy and the Offense-Defense-Deterrence Balance" International Security, Vol.28, No.3, Winter 2003/04, pp.45-83; Michael E. Brown and Owen R. Cote Jr. and Sean M. Lynn-Jones and Steven E. Miller, Offense, Defense, and War, Massachusetts:The MIT Press,2004; Yoav Gortzak and Yoram Z. Haftel and Kevin Sweeney, "Offense-Defense Theory:An Empirical Assessment," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.49, No.1, February 2005, pp.67-89.
1 Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics, New York:Cambridge University Press,1981, pp.61-63.
2 Robert Jervis, "Cooperation under the Security Dilemma", World Politics, Vol.30, No.2, January 1978, pp.186-194.
3 Frank C. Zagare and D. Marc Kilgour, Perfect Deterrence, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2000, p.181.
1 IAEA GOV/2007/48, Attachment, August 30,2007, p.2.
1 James Morrow, Game Theory for Political Scientist, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1994, p.7, pp.17-19; David A. Lake and Robert Powell, Strategic Choice and International Relations, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1999,p.7；周方银：“形式模型与国际关系研究”,《外交评论》2006年第4期,第97页。
2 Karen Cook and Margaret Levi, The Limits of Rationality, Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1990, p.2.
3 Jonathan Cohn, "Irrational Exuberance:When did Political Science Forget about Politics? New Republic, October 25 1999, p.25.
4陈彬： “关于理性选择理论的思考”, 《东南学术》2006年第1期,第120页。
5 Karl-Dieter Opp, The Rationality of Political Protest:A Comparative Analysis of Rational Choice Theory, Boulder, San Francisco, and London:Westview Press,1989, pp.7-8:Donald P. Green, Pathologies of Rational Choice Theory:A Critique of Applications in Political Science, New York and London:Yale University Press,1994, pp.14-16.
1 Karl-Dieter Opp, The Rationality of Political Protest:A Comparative Analysis of Rational Choice Theory, Boulder, San Francisco, and London:Westview Press,1989, pp.8-11.
2周方银：“形式模型与国际关系研究”,《外交评论》2006年第4期,第97页。
3虽然一些学者认为战略偏好的实用性并不清晰,但是这些偏好却往往推动战略制定者集中某些主要战略目标,并无意识地将这些偏好与战略目标结合在一起。Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision:Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, New York:Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.,1999, p.24.
4 Steven Jay Bell, "A critical Analysis of the Strategic Decision-Making Process for Information Technology in AcademicLlibraries," UMI, A Dissertation in Program Specialization Presented to the Faculties of the University of Pennsylvania in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Education,1997, p.18.
5 Robert Jervis, "Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma," World Politics, Vol.30, No.2, January 1978, pp.170-183;张维迎：《博弈论与信息经济学》,上海三联书店,1997年版,第5页。
6王鸣鸣：“外交决策研究中的理性选择模式”,《世界经济与政治》2003年第11期,第17页。
1 Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics, New York:McGraw-Hill, Inc.,1979, p.105.
2 Robert Jervis, "Cooperation under Security Dilemma," World Politics, Vol.30, No.2, January 1978. pp.167-214.
3 Michael Nicholson, Rationality and the Analysis of International Conflict, New York:Cambridge University Press, 1992, p.4.
1 Robert A. Pape, Bombing to Win:Air Power and Coercion in War, Ithaca and New York:Corneall University Press, 1996, pp.15-16.
2 Stephen Weinberger, "Neorealism, Iranian Style," Iranian Studies, Vol.40, No.1, February 2007, pp.5-16.
3 Gordon Thomas, "Israeli Subs Have Nukes Aimed at Iranian Sites," American Free Press, February 3,2006.
4 Matt Spetalnick, "Bush:Threat of World War Ⅲ if Iran Goes Nuclear," The Reuter, October 17,2007. http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1732974320071017
1 Nigel Howard, Paradoxes of Rationality:The Theory ofMetagames and Political Behavior, Cambridge:MIT Press, 1971; Robert Axelrod, The Evolution of Cooperation, New York:Basic Books, Inc., Publishers,1984.
2罗伯特·阿克塞尔罗德,罗伯特·基欧汉：“无政府状态下的战略和制度合作”,戴维·A.鲍德温：《新现实主义和新自由主义》,肖欢容译,浙江人民出版社,2001年版,第104-105页。
3王鸣鸣：“外交决策研究中的理性选择模式”,《世界经济与政治》2003年第11期,第19页；Robert Axelrod and William D. Hamilton, "The Evolution of Cooperation," Science, Vol.211,27 March 1981, pp.1390-1396.
4 Robert Axelrod, The Evolution of Cooperation, New York:Basic Books, Inc., Publishers; 1984,pp.11-12;罗伯特·艾克斯罗德：《对策中的制胜之道——合作的进化》,吴坚忠译,上海人民出版社,1996年版,第11页。
5 Charles F. Hermann and Charles W. Kegley Jr. and James N. Rosenau, New Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy, Winchester:Allen & Unwin, Inc.,1987, pp.203-220.
6这种选择战略的潜在困境在于：这种模式要求选择者充分了解对手前一个选择的全部信息,这与实践中选择者推理过程存在不确定性存在一定反差。Jonathan Bendor, "Uncertainty and the Evolution of Cooperation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.37, No.4 December 1993, p.710.
1罗伯特·艾克斯罗德：《对策中的制胜之道——合作的进化》,吴坚忠译,上海人民出版社,2007年版,第126页。
1 Zeev Maoz, "Resolve, Capabilities, and the Outcomes of Interstate Disputes,1816-1976," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.27, No.2, June 1983, p.200.
2 Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence, New Haven:Yale University Press,1966, p.74.
3 Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1976; "Deterrence and Perception", International Security, Vol.7, No.3, Winter,1982-1983, pp.3-30; The Illogic of American Nuclear Strategy, Ithaca and London:Cornell University Press,1984; The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution:Statecraft and the Prospect of Armageddon, Ithaca and London:Cornell University Press,1989, pp.136-173.
4 Oran. R. Young, The Politics of Force:Bargaining during International Crises, Princeton:Princeton University Press, 1968, pp.177-216.
5 Alexander L. George, President's Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy:The Effective Use of Information and Advice, Boulder:Westview Press,1980, pp.25-53.
1 Adrian Hyde-Price, "European Democracies and Coercive Diplomacy:The EU and the ESDP," Paper presented at the 31st Annual BISA Conference, University College Cork, December 18-20,2006, p.25.
2 Henry A. Kissinger, Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy, Boulder:Westview Press,1957, p.132.
3 John Spanier, Games Nations Play,6th, Washington, D.C.:Harper & Row, Publishers, Inc.,1987, pp.217-218.
4 J. David Singer, Deterrence, Arms Control, and Disarmament, Columbus:Ohio State University Press,1962, p.162.
5 K.J. Holsti, International Politics:A Framework for Analysis, New Jersey:Prentice Hall,1995, p.221.
1如果不存在屈服的环境,决策者可能先发制人,希望在战略上变被动为主动,如1967年以色列对埃及的战争,这需要决策者具有坚强的政治意志。
2 Alexander L. George, President's Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy:The Effective Use of Information and Advice, Boulder:Westview Press,1980, pp.25-53; Richard Little and Steve Smith, Belief System and International Relations, Oxford:Basil Blackwell Inc.,1988; Ole R. Holsti and James N. Rosenau, "The Domestic and Foreign Policy Beliefs of American Leaders," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.32, No.2, June 1988, pp.248-294.
1 Zeev Maoz, "Resolve, Capabilities, and the Outcomes of Interstate Disputes,1816-1976," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.27, No.2, June 1983, p.215.
2关于“软制衡”,参见Robert A. Pape, "Soft Balancing against the United States," International Security, Vol.30, No. 1, Summer 2005, pp.7-45; T.V. Paul, "Soft Balancing in the Age of U.S. Primacy," International Security, Vol.30, No. 1, Summer 2005, pp.46-71; Stephen G. Brooks and William C. Wohiforth, "Hard Times for Soft Balancing," International Security, Vol.30, No.1, Summer 2005, pp.72-108; Judith Kelley, "Strategic Non-Cooperation as Soft Balancing:Why Iraq Was not Just about Iraq," Internationaf Politics, Vol.42, Iss.2,2005, pp.153-173; Evelyn Goh, "Meeting the China Challenge:The U.S. in Southeast Asian Regional Security Strategies," Policy Studies, No.16, Washington:East-West Center,2005.
1 Robert Keohane, International Institutions and State Power:Essays in International Relations Theory, Boulder Westview Press,1989, p.234.
2罗伯特·吉尔平： 《世界政治中的战争与变革》,中国人民大学出版社,1994年版,第29-38页；门洪华：“国际机制与美国霸权”, 《美国研究》2001年第1期,第79页。
3 Lawrence Freedman, "Great Powers, Vital Interests and Nuclear Weapons," Survival, Winter 1994/1995, p.36.
1 Stephen J. Cimbala, Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation in the Twenty-first Century, London:Praeger,2001, p.106.
2 Sharon Squassoni, "U.S. Nuclear Cooperation with India:Issues for Congress," CRS Report for Congress, January 12, 2006. http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/59365.pdf
3 http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/01/20060131-10.html
4 The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, March 16,2006, p.20. http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss/2006/nss2006.pdf
1 National Intelligence Estimate, "Iran:Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities," The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, November 2007. http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf
2 Nasser Hadian, "Iran's Nuclear Program:Contexts and Debates," in. Geoffrey Kemp,Iran's Bomb:American and Iranian Perspectives, Washington D.C.:The Nixon Center,2004, p.56.
3 Ray Takeyh, Hidden Iran:Paradox and Power in the Islamic Republic, New York:Times Books,2006, p.149.
4 "Iran Sudents in Nuclear Protest," BBC News Online, November 1,2004. http://news.bbc.co.uk/I/hi/world/middle_east/3972711.stm
5 Cirincione, Joseph and Wolfsthal, Jon B. and Rajkumar, Miriam, Deadly Arsenals:Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threats, Washington, D.C.:The Brookings Institution Press,2005, p.297.
6 Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, "Forcing Hard Choices on Tehran Raising the Costs of Iran's Nuclear Program", Policy Focus #62, November 2006, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, p.Ⅷ.
1 Zbigniew Brzezinski, "A Partner for Dealing with Iran? The Lessons of U.S.-China Cooperation on Pyongyang", The Washington Post, November 30,2007, p.A23. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/29/AR2007112901876.html
2 Scott D. Sagan, "How to Keep the Bomb from Iran," Foreign Affairs, Vol.85, No.5,2006, pp.58-59.
1 Alexander L. George and David K. Half and William E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, Boston:Little, Brown and Company,1971, pp.36-85, pp.144-210.
2 Alexander L. George and William E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, Boulder:Westview,1994, pp.175-228.
3 Robert J. Art and Patrick M. Cronin, The United States and Coercive Diplomacy, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,2004, pp.57-224, pp.275-303.
1指被强制方根据强制方的期待自动地调节自己的行为。David Pollock, The Politics of Pressure:American Arms and Israeli Policy since the Six Day War, Westport and London:Greenwood Press,1982, p.5.
1 Alexander L. George, Peaceful Persuasion:Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,1993, pp.10-11.
2 Shahram Chubin, Iran's Nuclear Ambitions, Washington, D.C.:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,2006, p.95.
1 Bradley A Thayer, "The Causes of Nuclear Proliferation and the Unity of the NuclearNonproliferation Regime," Security Studies, Vol.4, No.3, Spring 1995, p.468.
2预防性外交主要强调外交的预防目的,在危机尚未出现,或尚未产生影响时,就利用外交手段,缓和或消除危机。Michael S. Lund, Preventing Violent Conflicts:A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy, Washington D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,1996; Alexander L. George, "Strategies for Preventive Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution: Scholarship for Policymaking," PS:Political Science and Politics, Vol.33, No.1, March 2000;艾什敦卡特、威廉姆佩里：《预防性防御：一向美国新安全战略》,胡利平、杨韵琴译,上海人民出版社,2000年版；李莉：“冷战后预防性外交的发展及影响”,《现代国际关系》2001年第10期。
1 Michael Rubin, "Can Iran Be Trusted?" American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, No.1, September 2006.
2 Henry Sokolski, Patrick Clawson, Checking Iran's Nuclear Ambitions, The Strategic Studies Institute, January 2004, p.Ⅶ. http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB368.pdf
3伊朗当前“拥核崛起”主要还是体现在拥有和平性质的核技术方面,伊朗官方并没有公开正式主张希望通过拥有核武器,实现国家崛起。
1 Graham E. Fuller, "The Hizballah-Iran Connection:Model for Sunni Resistance," The Washington Quarterly, Vol.30, No.1, Winter 2007, pp.139-150.
1朱幸福：“伊朗为何敢同美国叫板?”《文汇报》2006年1月17日。
2 Golnaz Esfandiari, "Iran/U.S.:Bush Says All Options on the Table for Tehran's Nuclear Program," Radio Free Europe, January 18,2005. http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/01/116e4efa-364c-4e09-aa9f-381cb5140da8.html
1 http://military.china.com/zh_cn/important/64/20060215/13095116.html
2如果伊暂停铀浓缩和后处理活动,遵守国际原子能机构和联合国安理会的相关决议,联合国安理会将中止、甚至取消制裁。http://www.un.org/chinese/radio/print_all.asp?NewsDate=3/3/2008
1 Dany Shoham, Chemical and Biological Weapons in the Arab Countries and Iran-An Existential Threat to Israel, ACPR Publishers, July 2001, pp.52-56; Seth Carus, "Iranian Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Weapons:Implications and Responses," Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol.2, No.1, March 1998, pp.12-22.
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陈彬： “关于理性选择理论的思考”, 《东南学术》2006年第1期。
陈兆华、王飞： “伊朗‘核问题’与美国对伊政策”,《现代国际关系》2004年第1期。
高广东、于洋、魏立英： “‘铁骑禁卫军’——伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队透视”, 《当代世界》2006年第5期。
顾国良： “美国对伊政策——伊朗核与导弹问题”, 《美国研究》2006年第1期。
华黎明： “伊朗核问题与中国外交的选择”, 《国际问题研究》2007年第1期。
纪荣仁： “浅析伊朗与美国在核问题上的争斗”, 《亚非纵横》2007年第3期。
蒋真： “核危机下的美国与伊朗”, 《哈尔滨工业大学学报》2005年第6期。
蒋真： “伊朗核强硬政策评析”,《西亚非洲》2007年第1期。
焦玉奎：“核危机凸显伊朗的中东大国地位”,《西亚非洲》2006年第3期。
焦玉奎：“伊朗核危机与中国石油安全”,《中国石油大学学报》2006年第6期。
李格琴：“欧盟介入伊朗核问题政策评估”,《武汉大学学报》2006年第3期。
李国富：“伊朗核问题的症结与前景”,《国际问题研究》2006年第5期。
李莉：“冷战后预防性外交的发展及影响”,《现代国际关系》2001年第10期。
李月：“美国民意：伊朗成为美国最大的敌人”,《华盛顿观察》2006年3月2日。
李焰：“‘死胡同’不死,伊朗核危机仍有出路”,《华盛顿观察》2006年第5期。
刘阿明,王联合：“先发制人与预防性战争辨析——以布什政府国家安全战略为例”,《学术探索》2004年第11期。
刘国华：“伊朗核问题与大国的利益博弈”,《国际问题研究》2007年第2期。
罗爱玲：“从伊朗核问题看美国对伊政策走向”,《世界经济研究》2003年第9期。
门洪华： “国际机制与美国霸权”, 《美国研究》2001年第1期。
钱春泰：《武力威胁与外交政策：强制外交研究》,2004年,南京大学博士论文。
钱春泰：国际政治中武力的潜在运用：威逼与威慑”,《欧洲研究》2005年第4期。
钱春泰：“美国与强制外交理论”,《美国研究》2006年第3期。
钱春泰：“论冷战后美国的强制外交”,《国际观察》2007年第3期。
邱美荣：“威胁认知与朝核危机”,《当代亚太》2005年第6期。
石斌：“从强制外交到多边协调——析美国对朝核问题的政策”,《国际观察》2004年第2期。
宋国友：“经济劝服战略的理论分析”,《国际观察》2007年第4期。
孙德刚：“叙利亚与伊朗准联盟关系浅析”,《阿拉伯世界研究》2006年第6期。
唐志超：“伊朗核问题的由来、发展及走向”,《思想理论教育导刊》2005年第2期。
唐志超：“当前伊朗核危机透视”,《现代国际关系》2005年第6期。
唐志超：“盟和伊朗在解决伊核问题上的基本立场”,《国际信息资料》2005年第6期。
唐志超：“中东国家核竞赛加剧及其影响”,《现代国际关系》2007年第1期。
王恩学、张金平：“伊朗的强硬‘核外交’政策”,《现代国际关系》2006年第4期。
王凤：“伊朗核问题及其走势”,《西亚非洲》2004年第1期。
王凤：“伊朗核问题的走向”,《晾望新闻周刊》2003年第44期。
王冀平、洪邮生、吉利强：“伊朗核问题与大国关系”,《美国研究》2004年第1期。
王鸣鸣：“外交决策研究中的理性选择模式”,《世界经济与政治》2003年第11期。
王新龙：“伊朗核问题：以色列的困境与选择”,《国际论坛》2007年第2期。
王泽平：“霸权威慑与战略反制——双重标准下的伊朗核危机”,《世界经济与政治论坛》2004年第2期。
汪树民：“从冲突理论看伊朗核危机的原因与走向”,《河池学院学报》2005年第6期。
吴成：“俄罗斯同美国在伊朗核问题上的合作与冲突”,《西亚非洲》2006年第6期。
吴成：“伊朗核问题的理论解读”,《西亚非洲》2006年第3期。
袁胜育：“伊朗核问题与俄罗斯的政策”,《俄罗斯研究》2006年第1期。
岳汉景：“伊朗核问题的本质探析”,《西亚非洲》2006年第6期。
曾军：“伊朗核问题及其对美伊关系的影响”,《西亚非洲》2005年第2期。
赵楚：“战略速胜论：美国对伊朗问题军事选择的一种前瞻”,《国际展望》2006年第11期。
赵青海：“伊朗军力有多强”,《世界知识》2005年第6期。
赵伟明：“两伊冲突的历史根源”,《世界历史》1995年第5期。
赵伟明：“挑战美国地位,重塑大国形象——俄罗斯对中东战略的变化与俄美关系”,《西亚非洲》2007年第10期。
赵伟明：“挑战美国地位重塑大国形象——俄罗斯对中东战略的变化与俄美关系”,《西亚非洲》2007年第10期。
周方银：“形式模型与国际关系研究”,《外交评论》2006年第4期,第97页。
周方银：“形式模型与国际关系研究”,《外交评论》2006年第4期。
朱锋：“伊朗核问题剖析”,《和平与发展》2006年第2期。
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2 Jerome R. Corsi, Atomic Iran:How the Terrorist Regime Bought the Bomb and American Politicians, Nashville:WND Books,2005.
3 Ray Takeyh, Hidden Iran:Paradox and Power in the Islamic Republic, New York:Times Books,2006.
4 Shahram Chubin, Iran's Nuclear Ambitions, Washington, D.C.:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,2006.
5 Han Berman, Tehran Rising:Iran's Challenge to the United States, Lanham:Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2005.
6 Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying the Bomb:American. Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and North Korea, New York:W. W. Norton & Company,2006, pp.503-517.
7 Ali M. Ansari, Confronting Iran:The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Next Great Crisis in the Middle East, New York:Basic Books.2006.
8 Roger Howard, Iran in Crisis:Nuclear Ambition and the American Response, London and New York:Zed Books, 2004.
9 The Economist Intelligent Unit Limited, "Country Report:Iran".
10 Anthony H. Cordesman Khalid R. Al-Rodhan, "Iranian Nuclear Weapons? The Uncertain Nature of Iran's Nuclear Programs," Washington, DC:Center for Strategic and International Studies, April 12,2006; Efraim Inbar, "The Need to Block a Nuclear Iran," Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol.10, No.1, March 2006; Maxine Kaye, "Toward a Nuclear Iran:The History, the Threat, and the International Response," New York:American Jewish Committee, December 2006, et al.
1王凤：“伊朗核问题及其走势”,《西亚非洲》2004年第1期。
2刘国华：“伊朗核问题与大国的利益博弈”,《国际问题研究》2007年第2期；陈兆华、王飞：“伊朗‘核问题’与美国对伊政策”,《现代国际关系》2004年第1期。
3王冀平、洪邮生、吉利强：“伊朗核问题与大国关系”,《美国研究》2004年第1期；赵伟明：“挑战美国地位重塑大国形象——俄罗斯对中东战略的变化与俄美关系”,《西亚非洲》200.7年第10期；华黎明：“伊朗核问题与中国外交的选择”,《国际问题研究》2007年第1期；吴成：“俄罗斯同美国在伊朗核问题上的合作与冲突”,《西亚非洲》2006年第6期；袁胜育：“伊朗核问题与俄罗斯的政策”,《俄罗斯研究》2006年第1期。
4主要是伊朗的网站,如伊朗伊斯兰共和国对外广播电台华语台(http://www2.irib.ir/worldservice/chinese/)和伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社(http://www2.irna.ir/ch/)。贾瓦德·曼苏里：“和平利用核能与维护正当权利——伊朗核计划”,《世界经济与政治》2007年10期。
1 Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, London:the President and Fellows of Harvard College,1960/1980; Thomas C. Schelling and Morton H. Halperin, Strategy and Arms Control, New York:Twentieth Century Fund,1961; Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence, New Haven:Yale University Press,1966。
2 Herman Kahn, On Escalation, Baltimore:Penguin Books,1965; William Kaufmann, Military Policy and National Security, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1956; Bernard Brodie, Escalation and the Nuclear Option, Princeton: Princeton University Press,1966.
3 Alexander L. George and David K. Hall and William E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, Boston:Little, Brown and Company,1971; Alexander L. George and Richard Smoke, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy:Theory And Practice, New York and London:Columbia University Press,1974; Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy: The Effective Use of Information and Advice, Westview Press,1980; Alexander L. George and William E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, London and Boulder:Westview Press,1994; Gordon A. Craig and Alexander L. George, Force and Statecraft:Diplomatic Problems of Our Time, Oxford:Oxford University Press, Inc.,1995.
4 Alexander L. George and David K. Hall and William E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, Boston:Little, Brown and Company,1971, Introduction,Ⅹ.
5 Lawrence Freedman, Strategic Coercion:Concepts and Cases, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1998; The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, New York:Palgrave Macmillan,2003; Deterrence, Cambridge:Polity Press,2004.
6 Stephen J. Cimbala, Military Persuasion and Provocation in Crisis and War, University Park:The Pennsylvania State University Press,1994; Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation in the Twenty-first Centiury. Westview:Praeger Publishers. 2001; First Strike Stability:Deterrence after Containment, Westport:Greenwood Press Group, Inc.,1990; The Past and Future of Nuclear Deterrence, Westport:Praeger Publishers,1998; Nuclear Weapons and Strategy:U.S. Nuclear Policy for the Twenty-First Century, London and New York:Routfedge,2005.
7 Kenneth A. Schultz, Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy, Cambridge, New York:Cambridge University Press,2001.
8 Peter Viggo Jakobsen. Western Use of Coercive Diplomacy after the Cold War:A Challenge for Theory and Practice, New York:St. Martin's Press.1998.
9 Bruce W. Jentleson and Christopher A. Whytock, "Who 'Won' Libya? The Force-Diplomacy Debate and Its Implications for Theory and Policy", International Security, Vol.30, No.3, Winter 2005/06, pp.51-53.
1 Robert J. Art and Patrick M.Cronin, The United States and Coercive Diplomacy, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,2004, Robert J. Art and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Use of Force:Military Power and International Politics, Lanham:Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.,2004, pp.3-22; Robert J. Art, "American Foreign Policy and the Fungibility of Force," Security Studies, Vol.5, No.4, Summer 1996, pp.7-42.
2 Jan van Angeren, The Opportunities & Limits of Compellence Strategies:The Quest for a Framework for Analysis, pp.11-15. https://openaccess.leidenuniv.nl/dspace/bitstream/1887/4276/3/Proefschrift.pdf
3 Martha Crenshaw, "Coercive Diplomacy and The Response to Terrorism." in Robert J. Art and Patrick M.Cronin, The United States and Coercive Diplomacy, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,2004, pp.305-357.
4钱春泰：《武力威胁与外交政策：强制外交研究》,2004年,南京大学博士论文；“国际政治中武力的潜在运用：威逼与威慑”,《欧洲研究》2005年第4期,第53-67页；“美国与强制外交理论”,《美国研究》2006年第3期：“论冷战后美国的强制外交”,《国际观察》2007年第3期。
5石斌：“从强制外交到多边协调——析美国对朝核问题的政策”,《国际观察》2004年第2期。
6陈东晓：“对后冷战时期美国胁迫外交的一种理论分析”,沈丁立、任晓： 《现实主义与美国外交政策》,上海三联书店,2004年版,第183-203页。
1 Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence, New Haven:Yale University Press,1966, p.3.
2 Robert Pape, Bombing to Win:Air Power and Coercion in War, Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press,1996, pp.12-15.
3 Lawrence Freedman, Strategic Coercion:Concepts and Cases, New York:Oxford University Press,1998, p.3.
4克劳塞维茨： 《战争论》,商务印书馆,1982年版,第43页。
1 Alexander L. George, Forceful Persuasion:Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,1991, p.5.
2 Thomas C. Schelling, Anns and Influence, New Haven:Yale University Press,1966, pp.3-4, p.76.
3 Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, p.196; Arms and Influence, pp.69-72.
4 Bruce W. Jentleson, "The Reagan Administration and Coercive Diplomacy:Restraining More than Remaking Government", Political Science Quarterly, Vol.106, Spring 1991, p.57.
5 Walter Peterson, "Deterrence and Compellence:A Critical Assessment of Conventional Wisdom", International Studies Quarterly, Summer 1986, p.270.
6 Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence, New Haven:Yale University Press,1966, p.69,100; Walter J. Petersen,
"Deterrence and Compellence:A Critical Assessment of Conventional Wisdom", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.30, 1986, pp.269-294; Lawrence Freedman, Strategic Coercion:Concepts and Cases, Oxford:Oxford University Press, 1998, p.54; Maria Sperandei, "Bridging Deterrence and Compellence:An Alternative Approach to the Study of Coercive Diplomacy", International Studies Review, Vol.8,2006, pp.256-257.
7 Robert J. Art, "To What Ends Military Power," International Security, Vol.4, No.4, Spring 1980, p.10.
8 Jan van Angeren, The Opportunities & Limits of Compellence Strategies:The Quest for a Framework for Analysis, pp.11-15.
1 Poyueh Wang Hsu, "US Coercive Diplomacy in the North Korean Crisis:From the Crime-and-Punishment Approach to Diplomatic Give-and-Take,1993-1994", Tamkang Journal of International Affairs, Vol.9, No.4, April 2006, pp.56-57.
2 Alexander L. George, Forceful Persuasion:Coercive Diplomacy as, an Alternative to War, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,1991,Ⅸ.
3 Alexander L. George, Forceful Persuasion:Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,1991, p.5.
4 Alexander L. George and William E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, Boulder:Westview,1994, p.10.
5参见Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence, New Haven, CT:Yale University Press,1966; Robert Jervis, The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution:Statecraft and the Prospect of Armageddon, Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press, 1989; Patrick M. Morgan, Deterrence:A Conceptual Analysis, Beverly Hills, CA:Sage Press,1977; Keith Payne, Deterrence in the Second Nuclear Age, Lexington:University Press of Kentucky,1996.
6从严格意义上说,战略强制并不等于强制性外交,然而由于在实践运作过程中,虽然战略强制强调武力威胁的重要性,但在其实施过程中并不可能完全排斥外交手段的实际运用,因此在具体案例分析中往往容易混淆,特别当战略强制实施者准备为自己武力威胁提供合法性时,即使他们并不重视外交在解决国际冲突中的重要作用,也往往倾向于将战略强制等同于强制性外交。
7参见Robert J. Art and Kenneth N. Waftz, The Use of Force:Military Power and International Politics, Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.,2004; Gordon A. Craig and Alexander L. George, Force and Statecraft: Diplomatic Problems of Our Time, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1995; Thomas M. Franck, Recourse to Force:State Action against Threats and Armed Attacks, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2002; Christopher M. Gacek, The Logic of Force:The Dilemma of Limited War in American Foreign Policy, New York:Columbia University Press,1994; James David Meernik, The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy, Burlington:Ashgate Publishing Company,2004; The Aspen Strategy Group, The United States and the Use of Force in the Post-Cold War Era, Queenstown:The Aspen Institute,1995.
1 Barry M. Blechman and Stephen S. Kaplan and Jerome Slater, Force without War:U.S. Armed Forces as a Political Instrument. Washington, D.C.:The Brookings Institution,1978, pp.4-20.
1 Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence, New Haven:Yale University Press,1966, pp.69-76; Peter Viggo Jakobsen, "The Strategy of Coercive Diplomacy:Refining Existing Theory to Post-Cold War Realities", in Lawrence Freedman, Strategic Coercion:Concepts and. Cases. New York:Oxford University Press,1998, p.66.
2亚历山大·乔治认为,托马斯·谢林提出的“胁迫”(compellance)概念在意图上与强制性外交相似,但胁迫除了具有强制性外交的意义外,还具有敲诈(blackmail)的意义,即使用侵略性的强制威胁迫使对手放弃某个有价值的目标而不作出任何反抗。Alexander L. George, Forceful Persuasion:Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,1991, p.5.
3 Alexander L. George and William E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, London and Boulder:Westview Press, 1994, p.16.
4 Alexander L. George and William E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, London and Boulder:Westview Press, 1994, pp.271-288. Peter Viggo Jakobsen, "The Strategy of Coercive Diplomacy:Refining Existing Theory to Post-Cold War Realities", Lawrence Freedman, Strategic Coercion:Concepts and. Cases. New York:Oxford University Press, 1998, p.68.
1 Peter Viggo Jakobsen, Western Use of Coercive Diplomacy after the Cold War:A Challenge for Theory and Practice, New York:St. Martin's Press,1998, pp.11-50.
2 Robert Jervis, "Deterrence and Perception", International Security, Vol.7, No.3, Winter 1982-1983, pp.3-30.
3 Alexander George, Forceful Persuasion:Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War; Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,1991, p.4.
1强制方往往自我认定能够完全反映自己政治愿望和战略利益的客观情况为“现状”,从而约束对手的行为。
2 Hans Mogenthau, Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations:The Struggle for Power and Peace, New York: Alfred A. Knopf, Inc.,1985, p.563.
3 Robert J. Art and Patrick M. Cronin, The United States and Coercive Diplomacy, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,2004, pp.275-303.
1 Peter Viggo Jakobsen, Western Use of Coercive Diplomacy after the Cold War:A Challenge for Theory and Practice, New York, N.Y.:St. Martin's Press,1998, p.29.
2 Alexander L. George, Forceful Persuasion:Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,1991, p.19.
1 Hans Mogenthau, Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations:The Struggle for Power and Peace, New York: Alfred A. Knopf, Inc.,1985, p.563.
1 Christer Jonsson and Richard Langhorne, Diplomacy:Volume Ⅰ:Theory of Diplomacy, London:SAGE Publishers, 2004, p.ⅩⅢ.
1 Joseph Nye, "Soft Power," Foreign Policy, Fall,1990, p.158; Beverly Crawford, "The New Security Dilemma under International Economic Interdependence," Millennium:Journal ofInternational Studies, Vol.23,1994, pp.25-55.
2 Irfan Nooruddin, "Modeling Selection Bias in Studies of Sanctions Efficacy," International Interactions, Vol.28, No.l, 2002, p.61.
3 Brian M. Pollins, "Cannons and Capital:The Use of Coercive Diplomacy by Major Powers in the Twenties Century," in Frank W. Wayman and Paul F. Diehl, Reconstructing Realpolitik, Ann Arbor:The University of Michigan Press,1994, pp.29-54.
4 David Lektzian and Mark Souva, "Institutions and International Cooperation:An Event History Analysis of the Effects of Economic Sanctions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.45, No.l, February 2001, p.61.
5 Bruce Jentleson, "Coercive Diplomacy:Scope and Limits in the Contemporary World," Policy Analysis Briefs, Stanley Foundation, December 2006, p.8.
6 Paul C. Stern, and Daniel Druckman, International Conflict Resolution after the Cold War, Washington, D.C.:National Academy Press,2000, pp.126-127.
7 David Baldwin, Economic Statecraft, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1985, p.13.
8 John Spanier, Games Nations Play, Washington, D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Inc.,1987, p.327.
1 Dean Lacy, Emerson M. S. Niou, "Nonseparable Preferences, Issue Linkage, and Economic Sanctions," Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, MA, September 3-6,1998. http://www.tsr. umich.edu/cps/pewp a/archive/archive_98/19980021.pdf
2 Richard Porter, "International Trade and Investment Sanctions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.23, No.4, December 1979, p.581.
3 David A. Baldwin, Robert A. Pape, "Evaluating Economic Sanctions," International Security, Vol.23, No.2, Autumn 1998, p.197.
4 Fiona McGillivray and Allan C. Stam, "Political Institutions, Coercive Diplomacy, and the Duration of Economic Sanctions," The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.48, No.2, April 2004, pp.154-170.
5 Bruce Jentleson, "Coercive Diplomacy:Scope and Limits in the Contemporary World", Policy Analysis Briefs, December 2006, p.8.
6 International Crisis Group, "Iran:Is There a Way Out of the Nuclear Impasse," Middle East Report, No.51,23 February 2006, p.9.
7 William H. Keampfer, Anton D. Lowenberg, "Unilateral Versus Multilateral International Sanctions:A Public Choice Perspective," International Studies Quarterly Vol.43, No.1, March 1999, pp.37-58; Anne C. Miers and T. Clifton Morgan, "Multilateral Sanctions and Foreign Policy Success:Can too Many Cooks Spoil the Broth?" International Interactions, Vol.28, No.1,2002, pp.117-136.
'David Baldwin, "The Power of Positive Sanctions," World Politics, Vol.24, No.1, October 1971, p.28.
2宋国友：“经济劝服战略的理论分析”,《国际观察》2007年第4期,第56页。
3 Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, "Forcing Hard Choices on Tehran:Raising the Costs of Iran's Nuclear Program," Policy Focus #62, Washington, D.C.:The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, November 2006, p.27.
4 Andrew Mark and Asif Khan, "The Efficacy of UN Sanctions," Security Dialogue, Vol.31, No.3, September 2000, p.287.
5 Abram Chayes and Antonia Handler Chayes, The New Sovereignty:Compliance with International Regulatory Agreements, Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1995, p.2强制方在实施经济制裁的同时往往辅以其他手段强制对手满足自己的外交要求6 Daniel W. Drezner, The Sanctions Paradox:Economic Statecraft and International Relations, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1999, p.17.
1 Paul Gordon Lauren, "Ultimata and Coercive Diplomacy," International Studies Quarterly, Vol.16, No.2, Junuary 1972, p.137.
2 Alexander L. George, Forceful Persuasion:Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,1991, p.7.
1根据《联合国宪章》,战争和武力等强制威胁只有在自卫或集体防卫时才具有合法性。Louis Henkin and Jeane J. Kirkpatrick, et al, Right V. Might:International Law and the Use of Force, New York:Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1991,pp.37-52.
2 Paul Gordon Lauren, "Ultimata and Coercive Diplomacy," International Studies Quarterly, Vol.16, No.2, June 1972, p.162.
3 Zalmay Khalilzad and David Ochmane, "How to Coerce Saddam", Wall Street Journal, February 3,1998, p.1.
4 Bruce W. Jentleson and Christopher A. Whytock, "Who'Won'Libya? The Force-Diplomacy Debate and Its Implications for Theory and Policy", International Security, Vol.30, No.3, Winter 2005/06, p.52.
1 Bruce Jentleson, "Coercive Diplomacy:Scope and Limits in the Contemporary World", Policy Analysis Briefs, December 2006, p.3.
2 Bruce W. Jentleson and Christopher A. Whytock, "Who 'Won' Libya? The Force-Diplomacy Debate and Its Implications for Theory and Policy", International Security, Vol.30, No.3, Winter 2005/06, pp.51-53.
1 Alexander L. George and Andrew Bennett, "Preface", Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences, Massachusetts:The MIT Press,2005,p.Ⅹ.
1 Jonathan Shimshoni, Israel and Conventional Deterrence:Broad Warfare from 1953 to 1970, Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press,1988, p.226; Kenneth C. Schow Jr., "Falcons against the Jihad:Israeli Aipower and Coercive Diplomacy in Southern Lebanon," SAASS Theses, November 1995. http://aupress.maxwell.af.mil/saas_Theses/SAASS_Out/Schow/schow.pdf
1 Daniel Poneman, Nuclear Power in the Developing World, London:Allen & Unwin, Inc.,1982, p.88.
2 John P. Miglietta, American Alliance Policy in the Middle East,1945-1992:Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, Lexington: Lexington Books,2002.
1 Anne Hessing Cahn, "Determinants of the Nuclear Option:The Case of Iran," in Onkar Marwah and Ann Schulz, Nuclear Proliferation and the Near-Nuclear Countries, Cambridge:Ballinger,1975, p.195.
2 Anne Hessing Cahn, "Determinants of the Nuclear Option:The Case of Iran," in Onkar Marwah and Ann Shulz eds. Nuclear Proliferation in the Near-Nuclear Countries, Cambridge:Ballinger Publishing Co.,1975, p.186.
3 International Atomic Energy Agency, The Annual Report for 1992, Document GC (ⅩⅩⅩⅦ) 1060, July 1993, p.140.
4 James F. Leonard and Jan Prawitz, "The Middle East as a NWFZ or WMDFZ Application," Pacifica Review, Vol.11 No.3, October 1999, p.263; UN Document A/RES/3263 (ⅩⅩⅨ).
5 Leonard S. Spector, Nuclear Ambitions, Colorado:Westview Press,1990, p.204:Chris Quillen, "Iranian Nuclear Weapons Policy:Past, Present, and Possible Future," Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol.6, No.2, June 2002, p.17.
0 Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, Mission for My Country, London:Hutchinson,1961, p.307.
7 Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World, Washington, DC:The Brookings Institution,1979, p.52.
8 INFCIRC/214, Information Circular, International Atomic Energy Agency, December 13,1974. http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/Others/infcirc214.pdf
9 Ian Bellany, Curbing the Spread of Nuclear Weapons, Manchester and New York:Manchester University Press,2005, Appendix B.
10 Maxine Kaye and Ari Fridman and Julia Levy, "Toward a Nuclear Iran:The History, the Threat, and the International Response," American Jewish Committee, December 2006, p.3. http://www.eisenhower.archives.gov/speeches/atoms_for_peace_milestone_document/atoml.htm
11 US Department of State, "Atoms for Peace Agreement with Iran," Department of State Bulletin Vol.36 No.15, April 1957, p.629; Daniel Poneman, Nuclear Power in the Developing World, London:George Allen & Unwin,1982, p.84.
1 Sharon Squassoni, "Iran's Nuclear Program:Recent Developments", CRS Report for Congress, July 20.2006, p.1; "Central Treaty Organization", International Organization, Vol.14, No.1, Winter,1960, p.216.
2 H. Muller, A European Non-Proliferation Policy:Prospects and Problems, Oxford:Clarendon Press,1987, pp.203-27.
3钚是一种能够激发核连锁反应的放射性元素。然而,许多分析家认为,钋不是用于生产核武器的合适原料。Sharon Squassoni, "Iran's Nuclear Program:Recent Developments", CRS Report for Congress, Order Code RS21592, updated July 20,2006, p.4.
4 Department of State, "U.S. Supplied Nuclear Material to Iran, September 1967 to May 1976", DSNA Item Number IR03551, Digital National Security Archive, Iran Revolution Collection, January 29,1980.
5 Leonard S. Spector and Jacqueline R. Smith, Nuclear Ambition:The Spread of Nuclear Weapons,1989-1990, Boulder: Westview Press,1990, p.205; Louis Charbonneau, "N. Korea Provides Nuclear Aid to Iran, intel reports," The Reuters, July 6,2005.
1核燃料循环是指核燃料的获得、使用、处理、回收利用的全过程。燃料循环通常分成两大部分,即前端和后端,它包括铀矿开采、矿石加工(选矿、浸出、沉淀等多种工序)、铀的提取、精制、转换、浓缩、元件制造等；后端包括对反应堆辐照以后的乏燃料元件进行铀钚分离的后处理以及对放射性废物处理、贮存和处置。参见中国核信息网：http://www.atominfo.com.cn/knowledge/know_hnzs_hrlxh.aspx
2 Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World:U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, D.C.:The Brookings Institution,1979, p.56.
3 "Russia Helps Build Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant," FBIS-NES-94-079, Vol.25, April 1994, p.82.
4 Mark Hibbs, "Bushehr Construction Now Remote After Three Iraqi Air Strikes," Nucleonics Week, November 26,1987, pp.5-6.
5 Maxine Kaye and Ari Fridman and Julia Levy, "Toward a Nuclear Iran:The History, the Threat, and the International Response," American Jewish Committee, December 2006, p.4.
6 Leonard S. Spector, Going Nuclear, Cambridge, Mass:Ballinger Pub. Co.,1987, pp.46-48.
7 Richard Kessler, "Argentina's Invap to Supply Iran Fuel for Research Reactor," Nucleonics Week, May 14,1987, p.2.
1 Anthony C. Cain, "Iran's Strategic Culture and Weapons of Mass Destruction:Implications of US Policy", Maxwell Paper No.26, Air War College:Air University Press, April 2002, p.13.
2 Jahangir Amuzegar, "Nuclear Iran:Perils and Prospects", Middle East Policy, Vol.ⅩⅢ, No.2, Summer 2006, p.92.
3 Richard K. Betts, "Incentives for Nuclear Weapons:India, Pakistan, Iran," Asian Survey, Vol.19, No.11, November 1979, p.1066.
4 Gregory F. Giles, "The Islamic Republic of Iran and Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Weapons," in Peter R. Lavoy, Scott D. Sagan, and James J. Wirtz, Planning the Unthinkable:How New Powers Will Use Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons, Ithaca:Cornell University Press,2000, p.82; Ali M. Ansari, Modern Iran Since 1921:The Pahlavis and After, London:Pearson Education Limited,2003, p.192-249; Nikkie R. Keddie, Modern Iran:Roots and Results of Revolution, New Haven:Yale University Press,2003, p.214-62; Sandra Mackey, The Iranians:Persia, Islam, and the Soul of a Nation, New York:Penguin Putnam,1998, pp.271-333.
5 Geoffrey Kemp and Walter Lippmann, "How to Stop the Iranian Bomb," The National Interest, No.72, Summer 2003, p.50. Gawdat Bahgat, "Nuclear Proliferation:The Islamic Republic of Iran," International Studies Perspectives, Vol.7, 2006, p.130.
6 John W. Graver, China and Iran:Ancient Partners in a Post-Imperial World, Seattle and London:University of Washington Press,2006, p.143.
7 Herbert Krosney, Deadly Business:Legal Deals and Outlaw Weapons:The Arming of Iran and Iraq,1975 to the Present, London:Four Walls Eight Windows,1993, p.188.
8 Herbert Krosney, Deadly Business:Legal Deals and Outlaw Weapons:The Arming of Iran and Iraq,1975 to the Present, London:Four Walls Eight Windows,1993, p.192; Anthony H. Cordesman, Iran's Military Forces in Transition: Conventional Threats and Weapons of Mass Destruction, Westport:Praeger Publishers,1999, p.234.
1 John Pike "Iran Leardership,2003.http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/leadership.htm
2 Michael Eisenstadt. "Living with a Nuclear Iran?" Survival, Vol.41, Iss.3, Summer 1999, p.129.
3 Michael Rubin, "Iran's Burgeoning WMD Programs, Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, Vol.4,. Iss.3,2002. http://www.meib.org/articles/0203 irnl.htm; "Rafsanjani Says Muslims Should Use Nuclear Weapon against Israel," Iran Press Service,14 December 2001, http://www.iran-pressservice.com/articles_2001/dec_2001/rafsanjani_nuke_threats_141201.htm
4 "Iran's Ayatollah Affirms Peaceful Nuclear Plans," The New York Times, January 19,2006:Molly Moore and Dafna Linzer, "IAEA:Iran Advancing Uranium Enrichment," The Washington Post, February 28,2006, p.Al 0.
5 Michael Rubin, "Iran's Burgeoning WMD Programs, Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, Vol.4, Iss.3,2002. http://www.meib.org/articles/0203_irnl.htm
6 "Iran Seeking Way to Finish Bushehr Plant but Bonn Denies Exports," Nucleonics Week, October 30,1986, pp.4-5
1 William Branigin, "Iran Set to Scrap $34 Billion Worth of Civilian Projects," The Washington Post, May 30,1979, p.A22.
2 "The About-Face in Iran On Nuclear Power Plants," Business Week, June 25,1979, p.38; "Iran:Fate of Nuclear Projects in Doubt in New Regime," Nuclear News, Vol.22, No.3, March 1979, p.59; "Iran:Kraftwerk Union Withdraws," Nuclear News, Vol.22, No.11, September 1979, p.52.
3 "German Concern Ends A-Contract," Facts on File World News Digest, August 3,1979, p.586 E2.
4 "Iranian Attack on Iraqi Nuclear Complex Seen as Harbinger," Nucleonics Week, Vol.21, No.41, October 9,1980, p.1; Allan S. Krass, et al., Uranium Enrichment and Nuclear Weapon Proliferation, London and New York:Taylor & Francis Ltd,1983, pp.219-220.
5 "Iran to Restudy A-Power," The New York Times, March 18,1982, p.A7.
6 Richard Johns, "Middle East's Uneven Nuclear Progress," Financial Times, June16,1982, p.28.
7 Milton R. Benjamin, "Administration will List 63 Countries Subject to Nuclear Export Restrictions," The Washington Post, September,1982, p.A4.
5 Ray Takeyh, Hidden Iran:Paradox and Power in the Islamic Republic, New York:Times Books,2006, p.137.
9 Richard Kessler, "Argentina to Enforce Curbs on Nuclear Trade with Iran," Nucleonics Week, Vol.28, No.12, March 19, 1987, p.12.
10 "Argentina Confirms Deal for Work on Bushehr," Nuclear News, Jury 1987, p.54
11 Kenneth R.Timmerman, Weapons of Mass Destruction:The Cases of Iran, Syria, and Libya, Simon Wiesenthal Center, August 1992, pp.41-42; Krosney, Herbert, Deadly Business:Legal Deals and Outlaw Weapons:The Arming of Iran and Iraq,1975 to the Present, London:Four Walls Eight Windows,1993, p.249; Richard P. Cronin and K. Alan Kronstadt and Sharon Squassoni, "Pakistan's Nuclear Proliferation Activities and the Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission:U.S. Policy Constraints," CRS Report for Congress, March 16,2005, p.13;一个消息称双方1987年在迪拜 (Dubai)会晤：Dafna Linzer, "U.S. Misled Allies About Nuclear Export:N. Korean Material Landed in Pakistan, Instead of Libya," The Washington Post, March 20,2005第三个消息称会晤时间为1988年：Mark Hibbs, "Bonn Will Decline Teheran Bid to Resuscitate Bushehr Project," Nucleonics Week, Vol.32, No.18,1991, p.17; Jamal S. Al-Suwaidi, Iran and the Gulf A Search for Stability, London:British Academic Press,1996, p.279.
1 Krosney, Herbert, Deadly Business:Legal Deals and Outlaw Weapons:The Arming of Iran and Iraq,1975 to the Present, London:Four Walls Eight Windows,1993, p.249.
2示波镜通常用来在实验室中进行电子信号波形的显示与分析。
3 "Iran to Complete Busheir Site," Middle East Defense News,8 January 1990.
4 "Iran was Offered Nuclear Parts," The Washington Post, February 27,2005.
5 Kenneth R. Timmerman, Weapons of Mass Destruction:The Cases of Iran, Syria and Libya, Los Angeles:Simon Wiesenthal Center,1992, p.43.
6 Anthony H. Cordesman, Iran and Nuclear Weapons:A Working Draft, Washington, D.C.:Center for Strategic and International Wtudies, February 7,2000, p.4.http://www.csis.org/mideast/reports/irannuclear02072000.pdf
7普通的氢原子也叫氕,它的原子核就含一个质子,无中子。氕与氧结合,成为普通的水。重氢又叫氘,这个字在希腊语里是“第二”的意思。氘的原子核比普通的氢原子核多一个中子。氘与氧的化合物也是水,不过它比普通水重10%,所以叫重水。重水有一个重要的特性,它在原子核反应堆里能降低中子的速度,又几乎不吸收中子,是最好的中子减速剂。只有经过减速以后的中子,才能有效地使铀发生裂变,促使核裂变反应能够不断地进行。
8 GOV/2004/83, November 15,2004, pp.12-13.
1 Nugzar Ter-Oganov, "The Russia-Iranian Nuclear Cooperation," Iran Pulse, No.5, November 5,2006.
2 Jeffrey R. Smith and Michael Dobbs, "Russia Promised to Sell Centrifuge Plant to Iran", The Washington Post, April 29,1995.
3 Bill Gertz, "Senate Sends Tough Message to Russia"; "U.S. Expect Indicates Technicians will Visit Tehran to Work on Uranium Plant", The Washington Times, March 17,1995.
4 Fred Hiatt, "Perry Hints at Iran Compromise; Secretary's Comments in Moscow Cause Consternation in Washington", The Washington Post, April 3,1995, p.A19.
5 Joseph Cirincione and Jon B. Wolfsthal and Miriam Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals:Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threats, Washington, D.C.:The Brookings Institution Press,2005. p.299.
6 "India Denies Nuclear Cooperation with Iran," Agence France Presse, December 13,2003.
7 "Russia Pledges to Continue Iranian Nuke Project," Middle East Newsline, Vol.4, No.8, January 7,2002.
1 "Iran:Russian Envoy on Afghanistan, Terrorism, US, Israel, Nuclear Power Plant," IRNA, January 30,2002.
2 "Sabato on Argentina-Brazil Nuclear Cooperation Agreements," Nuclear Developments. February 24,1988, pp.20-21.
3 Gamini Seneviratne, "IAEA Approves Argentine Fuel for Teheran Research Reactor," Nuclear Fuel, October 3,1988, p.13.
4 "Moscow, Iran Sign Economic Pacts. Hint Future Arms Deals," Los Angeles Times, June.22, L989.
5 "Musavi Receives IAEA Chief Blix," Nuclear Developments, July 14,1989, pp.14-15.
6 "Iran:Keeping its Nuclear Options Open", Iran Brief, October 9,1995.
7 Mark D. Skootsky, "U.S. Nuclear Policy Toward Iran," June 1,1995, http://people.csail. mit.edu/people/boris/iran-nuke.text
8 GOV/2004/83. November 15,2004, pp.10-11.
9 David Albright and Corey Hinderstein, "Iran:Countdown to Showdown," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol.60, No.6, November/December 2004, pp.67-72.
10 Mark Hibbs, "Iran Balking at Approval of IAEA Environmental Monitoring", Nuclear Fuel, Vol.21, No.20,1996.
1 Mark Hibbs, "Iran won't Accept More Inspections Unless U.S. Stops Nuclear Blockade," Nuclear Fuel, Vol.41, No.22, 2000.
2 GOV/2005/67, September 6,2005, para.14.
3 GOV/2005/87, November 18,2005, para.5-6.
4 John J. Lumpkin, "Iran's Nuclear Program Growing at Secret Sites, Rebel Group Alleges," The Associated Press, August 14,2002.
5王凤：“伊朗核问题的走向”,《瞭望新闻周刊》2003年第44期,第44-45页。
1 "Iran Signs Additional Protocol on Nuclear Safeguards," IAEA, December 18,2003. http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/News/2003/iranap20031218.html
2 "Iran's Nuclear Programme:A Collection of Documents, Presented, to Parliament by the Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs," January 2005. http://www.fco.gov.uk/files/kfile/cm6443.pdf; Mohsen Asgari and Mark Huband, "Iran to Suspend Uranium Enrichment Programme," The Financial Times, October 21,2003. http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=2659
3姚立：“伊朗核问题,欧盟外交初见成效”,《人民日报》2004年11月8日。
4 http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/IaeaIran/eu_iran14112004.shtml
Elaine Sciolino, "Iran and Europeans Open a New Round of Negotiations," The New York Times, December 14,2004. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/14/international/europe/14nuke.html
6 Ali Akbar Dareini, "Iran Offers Nuclear Assurances to Europe," The Associated Press, October 12,2004.
1徐鑫：“伊朗称如美承认其有权发展核技术即可直接谈判”,《中国日报》2005年3月14日。
2核反应燃料重油酸铵或重油酸钠的俗称。
3陈一鸣：“美态度各异,伊朗核问题彻底解决尚需时日”,《人民日报》2004年06月29日。
4 Ali Akbar Dareini, "Iran's Top Nuclear Official Says Tehran Has Not Abandoned Enrichment of Uranium since Its Suspension is Limited," The Associated Press, November 30,2004.
5 GOV/2003/63, August 26,2003, p.2.
6 GOV/2003/75, November 10,2003, p.2.
1 GOV/2003/75, November 10,2003,pp.3-10.
2 GOV/2003/81, November 26,2003, p.3.
3 GOV/2004/11, February 24,2004, p.5.
4 GOV/2004/34, June 1,2004, para.33但伊朗在20世纪90年代曾表示,该设备生产能力为每天几毫克数量级,只能够将铀浓缩到合同规定的铀-235浓度为3%。GOV/2003/75,para.59.
5 GOV/2004/49, June 18,2004.
1 GOV/2004/83, November 15,2004.
2 Louis Charbonneau, "Iran Halts Key Nuclear Work to Avoid UN Sanctions," The Reuters, November 22,2004.
3 GOV/2004/90, November 29,2004".
4 Ali Akbar Careini, "Iran Acknowledges 'Deep Differences' with Europe in Nuclear Talks," The Associated Press, February 23.2005.
5 "Russia-Iran Nuclear Deal Signed," BBC, February 28,2005.
6 Dafna Linzer, "IAEA Head Waits to Issue Iran Verdict," The Washington Post, March 1,2005.
7 Jahn George, "Iran Builds Bomb-Resistant Underground Nuclear Storage," The Associated Press, March 4,2005.
8允真：“伊朗自曝核计划内幕：伊朗从黑市上买过核材料”,《中国青年报》2005年3月8日。
1 Ali Akbar, "Iran Confirms Uranium-To-Gas Conversion," The Associated Press, May 9,2005.
2 Susan Loof, "IAEA Urges More Cooperation From Iran," The Associated Press, June 15,2005.
3 Shahra,Chubin, Iran's Nuclear Ambitions, Washington, D.C.:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,2006, pp.27-30.
4 "Iran announces further resumption of atomic Work," The Reuters,3 January 2006.
5 Volker Perthes and Eva Wegner, "Enriching the Options Europe, the United States, and Iran," Discussion Paper, German Institute for International and Security Affaires, June 2006, p.3.
1王建芬：“内贾德在联大发言批评美英滥用安理会职权”,《中国日报》2006年9月20日。
2 Ali Akbar Dareini, "Ahmadinejad:US Intel Report Positive," The Associated Press, December 11,2007.
3 John Ward Anderson and Daniela Deane, "Iran Threatens to Block U.N. Inspections," The Washington Post, January 13, 2006. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/13/AR2006011300335.html
4 http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Iran/1825_6279.html
5 "Iranian Lawmakers Threaten to Keep out UN Inspectors," Radio Free Europe, September 5,2006. http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/9/BC396899-E040-49BB-A925-EC7ADA18E461.html
1 UNSCR 1696. http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N06/450/22/PDF/N0645022.pdf?OpenElement
2 "Supreme Leader Lambasts US Hue and Cry over Iran's Nuke Plan," Islamic Republic News Agency,March 9,2006. http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2006/iran-060309-irna07.htm
3 Karl Vick, "Iran Rejects Russia's Proposal on Uranium," The Washington Post, March 13,2006,p.A12.
4 John War Anderson and Daniela Deane, "Iran Threatens to Block U.N. Inspections," The Washington Post, January 13, 2006.
1 Sam F. Ghattas, "Iran Proclaims Right to Nuclear Energy," The Associated Press, September 17,2007.
2 Nasser Karimi, "Iran Seeks Guarantees on Nuclear Fuel," The Associated Press, November 27,2005.
3 Dafna Linzer, "Iran Is Judged 10 Years From Nuclear Bomb:U.S. Intelligence Review Contrasts With Administration Statements," The Washington Post, August 2,2005, p.A01. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/01/AR2005080101453_pf.html
1 GOV/2005/77, September 24,2005.
2 Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress July 31,2006, p.15.
3 Anthony Barnett, "UK cleared nuclear cargo to fran," The Observer,8 January 2006.
4 Steven R. Weisman and Nazila Fathi, "Iranians Reopen Nuclear Centers," The New York Times, January 11,2006.
5 The Deputy Director General, "Developments in the Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran and Agency Verification of Iran's Suspension of Enrichment-related and Reprocessing Activities," IAEA, January 31,2006, p.3.
6 GOV/2006/14, February 4,2006.
1 GOV/2006/15, February 27,2006.
2 Nazila Fathi, David E. Sanger and William J. Broad, "Iran Says it is Making Nuclear Fuel, Defying U.N.," The New York Times,12 April 2006.
3 GOV/2006/27, April 28,2006
4 "Iran Allocates Funds to Finish first "Nuclear Pwer Pplant," The Associated Press, May 1,2006.
5 "Iran Achieves Higher Uranium Enrichment Level," Agence France Presse, May 2,2006
6 UNSCR 1696. http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N06/450/22/PDF/N0645022.pdf?OpenElement
7 IAEA, "Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran," GOV/2006/53, August 31, 2006; David Albright and Corey Hinderstein, "Clock Ticking but How Fast?" Institute for Strategic and International Studies, May 27,2006, pp.5-6, www.isis-online.org/publications/iran/clockticking.pdf; David Albright and Jacqueline Shire, "Iran's Centrifuge Program:Defiant but Delayed," Institute for Strategic and International Studies, August 31, 2006, www.isis-online.org/publications/iran/defiantbutdelayed.pdf
120世纪80年代,在“技术支持”项目下,国际原子能机构曾帮助伊朗获得铀。Mark Heinrich, "IAEA Suspends Some Nuclear Aid to Iran:Diplomats," The Reuters, January 17,2007.
2 GOV/2007/8, February 22,2007.
3 "Atomic Agency Confirms Advances by Iran's Nuclear Program," The New York Times, April 18,2007.
4 GOV/2007/22, May 23,2007.
5 GOV/2007/48, August 30,2007
1 GOV/2007/58, November 15,2007.
2 National Intelligence Council, "Iran:Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities", November 2007. http://www.dni.gov/press releases/20071203_release.pdf; Kaveh L Afrasiabi, "US Spies Concoct a Potent Iran Brew," Asia Times Online, December 5,2007; http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle East/IL05Ak01.html
3 "U.N. Sanctions Iran Anew over Nuclear Program:Security Council Bans Trade in Goods that have Both Civilian, Military Use," The Associated Press, March 3,2008.
1 Mitchell Reiss and Robert S. Litwak, Nuclear Proliferation after the Cold War, Washington DC:The Woodrow Wilson Center Press,1994, p.50.
1 George Bunn and John B. Rhinelander, "Reykjavik Revisited:Toward a World Free of Nuclear Weapons," WSI Policy Brief, September 2007, p.12.
2 Parama Sinha Palit, "US-Iran_ The Changing Dynamics and the Likelihood of a Conflict," Strategic Analysis, Vol.28, No.1, Jan-Mar 2004, p.105.
3 Gary Sick, "Iran:Confronting Terrorism," The Washington Quarterly,26:4, Autumn 2003,p.89; James Phillips and John C. Hulsman and James Jay Carafano, "Countering Iran's Nuclear Challenge," Backgrounder, No.1903, December 14,2005, p.3.
4 David Albright and Corey Hinderstein, "Iran, Player or Rogue?" Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2003, p.52-58; K. P. O'Reilly, "Perceiving Rogue States:The Use of the 'Rogue State' Concept by U.S. Foreign Policy Elites," Foreign Policy Analysis, Vol.3,2007, pp.295-315.
5 George W. Bush, "State of the Union Address", Washington, D.C., January 29,2001, www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/20020129-11.html
6 The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, March 16,2006, p.20. http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss/2006/nss2006.pdf
1 William O. Beeman, The Great "Satan" and the Mad "Mullahs":How the United States and Iran Demonize Each Other, Westport:Praeger Publishers,2005, pp,49-67.
2 Kenneth M. Pollack, The Persian Puzzle:the conflict between Iran and America, New York:Random House,2004, pp.400-416.
3 Shahram Chubin, "Whither Iran? Reform, Domestic Politics and National Security," Adelphi Papers, No.342, New York:Oxford University Press,2002, p.74.
4 Joseph Cirincione, Jon B. Wolfsthal and Miriam Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals:Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threats, Washington, D.C.:The Brookings Institution Press,2005, p.297.
3 Kenneth M. Pollack, "Bringing Iran to the Bargaining Table", Current History, Vol.105, Iss.694, November 2006, p.366.
1 Roger Howard, Iran in Crisis:Nuclear Ambition and the American Response, London and New York:Zed Books,2004, pp.68-81.
2唐志超：“中东国家核竞赛加剧及其影响”,《现代国际关系》2007年第1期,第45-46页。
3 "Gulf States Have Right to Nuclear Energy:UN Atomic Chief, Agence France Presse, April 122007.
4 Ilan Berman, Tehran Rising:Iran's Challenge to the United States, Lanham:Rowman & Littlefieid Publishers, Inc., 2005. ⅩⅦ.
5 Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress, July 31,2006, p.14.
6 Michael Eisenstadt, "Living with a Nuclear Iran," Survived., Vol.41, Iss.3, Summer 1999, pp.124-148.
7 Bruce W. Jentleson and Christopher A. Whytock, "Who Won Libya:The Force-Diplomacy Debate and Its Implication for Theory and Policy," International Security, Vol.30, No.3, Winter 2005/06, pp.47.
8 "Egypt will Pursue Nuclear Energy", Jerusalem Post, September 22,2006.
1 Mohammad Mohaddessin, Islamic Fundamentalism:The New Global Threat, Washington, D.C.:Steven Locks Press, 2001,pp.2-3.
2 Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World:US. Policy Dilemma, Washington, D.C.:The Brookings Institution,1979, p.56.
3 "Iran-Iraq Arms Non-Proliferation Act of 1992",102d Congress,2d session HR 5006, U.S.Congress, October 23, House of Representative,1992.
4 Hooman Estelami, "A Study of Iran's Response to U.S. Economic Sanctions," Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol.3, No.3, September 1999, p.54.
1其它包括：中国8.7；韩国5.9；阿联酋4.1；土耳其3.5；南非3.1；俄罗斯2.8；印度2.1等。Picture the Problem: Sanctioning Iran," The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2006-07, p.118.
2 Energy Information Administration, Country Profile:Iran, September 2000* Gawdat Bahgat, "US-Iran Realtions: Sanctions and the Caspian Sea," Security Dialogue, Vol.32, No.2, June 2001, p.232.
3 Sharon Squassoni and Marcia S. Smith, "The Iran Nonproliferation Act and the International Space Station:Issues and Options," CRS Report for Congress, Order Code RS22072, updated August 22,2005, pp.1-3;尽管如此,美国公司并没有一律地参加了对伊朗的经济制裁,迪克·切尼承认其在参加2000年总统大选时担任哈里伯顿公司总裁期间,继续通过代理人与利比亚及伊朗有商业往来。Colum Lynch, "Firm's Iraq Deals Greater Than Cheney Has Said," The Washington Post, June 23,2001.http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/sanction/iraql/oilforfood/2001/0627chen.htm
4 Meghan L. O'Sullivan, Shrewd Sanctions:Statecraft and State Sponsors of Terrorism, Washington, D.C.:Brookings Institution Press,2003, p.60.
5 http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Jan2002/d20020109npr.pdf; Keith B. Payne, "The Nuclear Posture Review:Setting the Record Straight," The Washington Quarterly.Vol.28,NO.3,Summer.2005,pp.145-151.
6 Barry Schweid, "State Dept. Sanctions 9 Foreign Companies for Iran Arms Sales," The Associated Press, December 27, 2005.
7 Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress, July 31,2006, p.17; Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress, October 4,2006, p.17.
8 Luis Martinez, "Nuclear 'Carrots and Sticks' for Iran:Proposal Offers Rewards, Punishment to Convince Iran to Dump Enrichment Program," ABC News, June 6,2006. Cited from Sharon Squassoni, "Iran's Nuclear Program:Recent Developments", CRS Report for Congress, July 20,2006, p.6.
9 Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress July 31,2006, p.17.
1 Glenn Kessler, "U.S. Moves to Isolate Iranian Banks," The Washington Post, September 9,2006, p. All; Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, "Forcing Hard Choices on Tehran Raising the Costs of Iran's Nuclear Program", Policy Focus #62, November 2006, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, p.13.在此之前,美国就已经切断了Bank Saderat与美国银行的商业关系,这次美国主要切断了Bank Saderat与非伊朗银行的美元交易。Glenn Kessler, "U.S. Moves to Isolate Iranian Banks," The Washington Post, September 9,2006, p.Al 1.
2 U.S. Congress, Iran Freedom Support Act, P.L.109-293, September 30,2006. http://www.iranwatch.org/government/US/Congress/Legislation/us-congress-iranfreedomact-093006.pdf
3 "US Warns Iran it Could Face Similar Sanctions to North Korea," VOA News, October 16,2006.
4 Henry Sokolski and Patrick Clawson, "Checking Iran's Nuclear Ambitions," The Strategic Studies Institute, January 2004, p.4.
5 SC Resolution 1737 (2006), December 23,2006.
1 SC Resolution 1747 (2007), March 24,2007.
2 Robin Wright, "U.S. to Impose New Sanctions Targeting Iran's Military," The Washington Post, October 25,2007 p.A01.
3 Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress, July 31,2006, p.14.
4 http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/01/20060131-10.html; Barry Schweid, "Bush:Won't Allow A Nuclear-Armed Iran," The Associated Press, September 5,2006.
5 Michael A. Fletcher and Keith B. Richburg, "Bush Tries to Allay EU Worries over Iran," The Washington Post, February 23,2005. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A43199-2005Feb22.html; Golnaz Esfandiari, "Iran/U.S.:Bush Says All Options on the Table for Tehran's Nuclear Program,"Radio Free Europe, January 18,2005. http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/01/116e4efa-364c-4e09-aa9f-381cb5140da8.html
6 John R. Bolton, "Preventing Iran from Acquiring Nuclear Weapons," Hudson Institute, August 17,2004, http://www.state.gov/t/us/rm/35281.htm.
7 Committee on the Present Danger, "Iran:A New Approach," December 20,2004. http://www.fightingterror.org/newsroom/CPD_Iran_policy_paper.pdf.
1 Tom Squitieri, "Top General Warns Iran not to Underestimate U.S. Military," USA Today, November 28,2004.
2 Bernard Gwertzman, "Kissinger:Don't Exclude Military Action Against Iran if Negotiations Fail," Council of Foreign Relations, July 14,2005. http://www.cfr.org/publication.html?id=8255
3 Ria Novosti, "Bush Refuses to Rule out Military Action against Iran," December 4,2007 http://www.globalsecurity.or/wmd/library/news/iran/2007/iran-071204-rianovosti01.htm
4 Kenneth M. Pollack, The Persian Puzzle:The Conflict between Iran and America, New York:Random House,2004, pp.400-416; Kenneth M. Pollack, "Iran:Three Alternative Futures," The Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol.10. No.2. June 2006.
5 Elizabeth Bumiller, "Bush May Weigh the Use of Incentives to Dissuade Iran," The New York Times, February 22, 2005.
1 Robert J. Einhorn, "A Transatlantic Strategy on Iran's Nuclear Program," The Washington Quarterly, Vol.27, No.4, Autumn 2004, pp.21-32.
2 Jared Cohen, "Iran's Young Opposition:Youth in Post-Revolutionary Iran," SAIS Review, Vol. XXVI, No.2, Summer-Fall 2006, p.15.
3 FY 2006 Supplemental Budget Request, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Opening Remarks before the Senate Appropriations Committee, Washington, March 9,2006. http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2006/62900.htm
4余火：“美国重金策反伊朗,强化波斯语广播,资助反政府团体”,《环球时报》2006年2月21日。
5 "Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice On Fox News with Brit Hume," December 15,2005. http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2005/58184.htm
6 John Roberts, "Rice Says Iran Rejected Peaceful Civilian Nuclear Program," January 13,2006. http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2006/iran-060113-usia01.htm
7 Emily B.Landau, "US Engagement with Iran:The Moment of Truth in the Nuclear Crisis?" JCSS, Tel-Aviv Notes, No.173, June 6,2006, http://www.tau.ac.il/jcss/tanotes/Taunotes173.doc.
1张万伟： “美国国防部长：不是不打而是暂不打伊朗”, 《青年参考》2006年9月20日。
2 "Gates again Invokes Possible Iran Strike," The Associated Press, November 20,2007.
3 Colum Lynch and Dafna Linzer, "Rice Warns Iran It Risks Further U.N. Sanctions:Report Finds Continued Nuclear Defiance," The Washington Post, February 23,2007, p.AOl.
4 "Statement by the President of the Security Council, S/PRST/2006/15," United Nations, March 29,2006.
5 http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N06/290/88/PDF/N0629088.pdf?OpenElement;由于这份决议缺乏安理会赋予的强制效力,未能满足美国的愿望。Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress, July 31,2006, p.16.
6 Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress July 31,2006, p.17 Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress October 4,2006, p.17.
7 UNSCR1696. http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N06/450/22/PDF/N0645022.pdf?OpenElement
1这个概念从“延伸威慑”引申出来的,参见Paul K. Huth, Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War, New Haven and London:Yale University Press,1988; John Arquilla and Paul K. Davis, Extended Deterrence, Compellence and the "Old World Order," Santa Monica:Rand,1992; Vesna Danilovic, "The Sources of Threat Credibility in Extended Deterrence," Journal of'Conflict Resolution, Vol.45, No.3, June 2001, pp.341-369. Kathleen J. Mcinnis, "Extended Deterrence:The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East," The Washington Quarterly, Vol.28, No.3, Summer 2005, pp.169-186; Frak C. Zagare and D. Marc Kilgour, Perfect Deterrence, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2000, pp.167-196.
2美国防止核扩散政策具有4个基本原则：1.任何国家的核地位必须公开,行为必须符合国际规范；2.减弱一些国家试图拥有核地位的动机,改变它们对拥有核武器就意味着成为世界性大国或者核武器是国家实力最重要衡量标准的认知；3.使用政治、经济甚至军事手段改变一些危及地区或国际安全国家的核地位；4.强调核设施的安全与保险(security and safety). Stephen J. Cimbala, Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation in the Twenty-first Century, London:Praeger Publishers,2001, p.111.
1 Meghan L.0'Sullivan, Shrewd Sanctions:Statecraft and State Sponsors of Terrorism, Washington, D.C.:Brookings Institution Press,2003, p.67.
2 Stephen J. Cimbala, Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation in the Twenty-first Century, London:Praeger Publishers, 2001, p.104.
3王兴栋：“专家：美国对伊朗制裁措施无实质意义”,《新闻晚报》2007年10月26日。
4 See:Benjamin S. Lambeth, The Transformation of American Air Power, Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press,2000.
5 Zvi Shtauber and Yiftah S. ShapiT, The Middle East Strategic Balance 2005-2006, Brighton·Portland:Sussex Academic Press,2007, p.40.
6 Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, "Forcing Hard Choices on Tehran Raising the Costs of Iran's Nuclear Program", Policy Focus #62, November 2006, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, p.26.
7 Ephraim Kam, "A Nuclear Iran:What Does it Mean, and What Can be Done," Memorandum 88, Institute for National Strategic Studies, February 2007, p.69.
1 Christopher de Bellaigue, "Defiant Iran," The New York Review of Books, Vol.53, No.17, November 2,2006; Gary Samore, "Meeting Iran's Nuclear Challenge," Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, No.21, October 2004. http://www.wmdcommission.org/files/No20.pdf
2 Zbigniew Brzezinski and Robert Gates and Suzanne Maloney, "Iran:Time for a New Approach," Independent Task Force Report, No.52, New York:Council on Foreign Relations,2004, p.41.
3 Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, "Forcing Hard Choices on Tehran Raising the Costs of Iran's Nuclea Program", Policy Focus #62, November 2006, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, pp.4-8.
1 Emily B. Landau, Ephraim Asculai, and Noam Ophir, "Stepping Up the Pressure? The International Commuity Faces Iran", in Zvi Shtauber and Yiftah S. Shapir, The Middle East Strategic Balance 2005-2006, Brighton·Portland:Sussex Academic Press,2007, p.35.
1 Sam Gardinar, "The End of the "Summer of Diplomacy":Assessing U.S. Military Options on Iran," A Century Foundation Report 2006. http://securingamerica.com/pages/gardiner_summer_diplomacy.pdf;美国甚至也可以借鉴20世纪70年代中美关系解冻,尼克松总统对中国选择的接触政策。James Dobbins, "Coping with Iran:Confrontation, Containment or Engagement? A Conference Report," Santa Monica:Rand Corporation,2007, pp.58-59.
2 Michael McFaul, Abbas Milani, and Larry Diamond, "A Win-Win U.S. Strategy for Dealing with Iran," The Washington Quarterly, Vol.30, No.1, Winter 2006-2007, p.137.
1 Shahram Chubin, Iran's National Security Policy:Intentions, Capabilities,& Impact, Washington, D.C.:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,1994, pp.53-5; Shahram Chubin, Whither Iran? Reform, Domestic Politics, and National Security, New York:Oxford University Press,2002, pp.71-85.
2 George Perkovich, "Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Challenge," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 28, 2003. http://www.ceip.org/files/projects/npp/pdf/Iran/iraniannuclearchallenge.pdf
1 Paul Rivlin, "Iran's Energy Vulnerability," Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol.10, No.4 December 2006, pp.103-116.
2核能是目前唯一可供替代化石燃料的最经济的基荷电力来源,可以减少温室气体的排放。参见“核工业复兴”,《国外核新闻》2006年第9期,第1页。
3焦玉奎：“核危机凸显伊朗的中东大国地位”,《西亚非洲》2006年第3期,第5-10页。
4 http.7/www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/doctrine.htm
5 Kenneth M. Pollack, "Bringing Iran to the Bargaining Table", Current History, Vol.105, Iss.694, November 2006, p.365.
6 Gawdat Bahgat, "Nuclear Proliferation:The Islamic Republic of Iran," International Studies Perspectives, Vol.7, No.2, May 2006, p.134.
7 William C. Martel, "Proliferation and Pragmatism:Nonproliferation Policy for the Twenty-First Century," in Stephen J. Cimbala, Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation in the Twenty-first Century, London:Praeger Publishers,2001, p.106.
1 "An Unnecessary Crisis—Setting the Record Straight about Iran's Nuclear Program." The New York Times, November 18,2005.
2 Christiane Amanpour, "Transcript of Interview with Iranian President Mohammad Khatami," Cable. News Network, January 7,1998; Nikki R. Keddie and Rudi Matthee, Iran and the Surrounding World:Interactions in Cultyre and Cultural Politics, Seattle and London:University of Washington Press,2002, p.367
3 "Iran's President—His Own Words," BBC News, January 16,2006.
4 Robert Jervis, "The Political Effects of Nuclear Weapons:A Comment," in Sean M. Lynn-Jones, The Cold War and After:Prospects for Peace, London and Cambridge:The MIT Press,1991, p.70.
5 Statement by H.E. Reza Aghazadeh Vice-President of the Islamic Republic of Iran and President of the Atomic Energy Organization Of Iran at the 46th General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, September 16, 2002, pp.1-2. http://www.iranatom.ru/reports/rep010.pdf
11996年9月25日,以色列政府签署了《全面核禁试条约》,但以色列议会至今未批准该条约。尽管国际社会普遍质疑以色列核计划的和平性质,并多次在国际裁军会议上对以色列施加压力,但是以色列政府至今未签署《不扩散核武器条约》。
2 Statement by H.E. Reza Aghazadeh Vice-President of the Islamic Republic of Iran and President of the Atomic Energy Organization Of Iran at the 46th General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, September 16, 2002, p.3. http://www.iranatom.ru/reports/rep010.pdf
3 Shahram Chubin, Iran's Nuclear Ambitions, Washington, D.C.:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,2006, p.l.
4 Shahram Chubin and Robert S. Litwak, "Debating Iran's Nuclear Aspirations," The Washington Quarterly, Vol.26, No.4, Autumn 2003, p.113.
1 "Iran Wants to Settle Its Nuclear Dossier at IAEA:Secutiry Chief," Mehr News Agency, March 10,2005.
1 "Iranian Oil Bourse," http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Oil_Bourse
2 Nazila Fathi and Andrew E. Kramer, "With Threats of Sanctions, Iran Protects Some Assets, The New York Times, January 21,2006, A.5; Molly Moore, Iran Shifts Funds Out of E.U. Banks, The Washington Post January 21,2006, A.16; David E. Sanger, "Iranian Threatens Full Production of Nuclear Fuel," The New York Times, January 23,2006, A5.
3 Nugzar Ter-Oganov, "The Russia-Iranian Nuclear Cooperation," Iran Pulse, No.5, November 5,2006.
4 Kenneth Katzman, "The Iran Sanctions Act (ISA)," CRS Report for Congress, Order Code RS20871, Updated October 12,2007, p.4.
5 http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/wjb/zzjg/xybfs/gjlb/1444/default.htm
6 "Iran, China Finalise two Billion Dollar Oil Contract," Agence France Presse, December 9,2007. http://www.afp.com/english/news/stories/071209215502.ffutnxfy.html
1 Terence Hunt, "Bush Strongly Warns Iran on Naval Clash," The Associated Press, January 10,2008.
2 "Khatami:Iran Will Defend Against U.S. Attack," The Associated Press, January 20,2005. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,144956,00.html
3 "Iran Threatens'Crushing'Response If Attacked," Newsmax, January'2,2006.
4 Neda Bolourchi, "Bombs and Bombast in Iran," Apr 21,2006. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HD21Ak03.html
5 Steve Schippert, "Iran Defense:New Doctrine, Old Doctrine," August 21,2006. http://threatswatch.org/inbrief/2006/08/iran-defense-new-doctrine-old/; Nazila Fathi, "Iran Launches 10 Missiles in Exercise:War Games Precede Nuclear Deadline," International Herald Tribune, August 21,2006. http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/08/20/news/iran.php
6 Uzi Rubin, "The Global Reach of Iran's Ballistic Missiles," Memorandum 86, Tel Aviv:Institute for National Studies, November 2006, pp.17-24.
7 Kenneth Katzman, "Iran:U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses," CRS Report for Congress, Order Code RL32048, Updated December 4,2006, pp.13-14.
1 http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2007/iran-071020-riarrovosti01.htm
2 "Iran condemns hostage taking in Iraq-Asefi," Islamic Republic News Agency, April 17,2005. http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iraq/2005/04/iraq-050417-irna01.htm
32007年10月20日,拉里贾尼辞职,负责欧洲与美国事务的外交部副部长赛义德·贾利利接替拉里贾尼,出任首席核谈代表。
4 "First Direct Official Contact between the two Countries in 27 Years", The Washington Post, May 9,2006.
1 "Mahmoud Ahmadinejad:'Nuclear Issue of Iran Is Now Closed'," The Associated Press, September 26,2007. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,297935,00.html
z "Europe to Offer Iran Benefits," The Washington Post, August 1,2005.
1华黎明：“伊朗核问题与中国外交的选择”, 《国际问题研究》2007年第1期,第60-61页。
1 General Accounting Office, "Iran Sanctions:Impact in Furthering U.S. Objectives Is Unclear and Should Be Reviewed," December 2007, p.26. http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d0858.pdf
2 http://www.china5e.com/news/oil/200709/200709060113.html
1因此,我们可以发现,伊朗在国际核不扩散和军控机制中的活动相当积极。Gerald M. Steinberg, "Can Diplomacy Still Prevent Iran from Going Nuclear?" Jerusalem Issue Brief, Vol.5, No.1, December 1,2005. http://www.jcpa.org/brief/brief0O5-11.htm
1 Stephen J. Cimbala, Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation in the Twenty-first Century, London:Praeger,2001, p,28.
2 Daryl G. Press, Calculating Credibility:Bow Leaders Assess Military Threats, Ithaca and London:Cornell University Press,2005, p.11.
3 Tanya Glaser, "Conflict Research Consortium", http://www.colorado.edu/conflict/peace/example/geor2638.htm
1门洪华：“国际机制与美国霸权”, 《美国研究》2001年第1期,第81页。
2 http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xls,2008-3-27.
3 http://www.qqfx.com/subject/gold/gold_5_7.htm
4 http://www.nationalpriorities.org/world_military_spending
5 http://mil.news.sohu.com/20071012/n252617161.shtml
6 "U.S. Nuclear Weapon Enduring Stockpile," http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Weapons/Wpngall.html
1赵楚：“战略速胜论：美国对伊朗问题军事选择的一种前瞻”,《国际展望》2006年第11期,卷首语。
2 http://www.tm.ncinfo.gov.cn/news.asp?temp= 1&classcode=501&keyno=336
3 "Compendium of Patent Statistics 2007," http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/5/19/37569377.pdf
4“2006年美国登记专利大增”,《电子产品世界》2007年第3期,第28页。
5 Jubin M. Goodarzi, Syria and Iran:Diplomatic Alliance and Power Politics in the Middle East, London and New York: Tauris Academic Studies,2006孙德刚：“叙利亚与伊朗准联盟关系浅析”,《阿拉伯世界研究》2006年第6期。
1 Zahra Hosseinian, "Iran's Top Cleric Calls for Clean Election," The Reuters, January 2 2008.
2为美国在伊朗伊斯兰革命之前出售给巴列维政权时的飞机,在美国早已被淘汰,但经改进后,目前仍为伊朗空军的主力战机。
3 James Devine and Julian Schofield, "Coercive Counter-Proliferation and Escalation:Assessing the Iran Military Option," Defense & Security Analysis, Vol.22, No.2, June 2006, pp.146;赵青海：“伊朗军力有多强”, 《世界知识》2005年第6期,第41页。
4 Robin Wright, "Elite Revolutionary Guard Broadens Its Influence in Iran," The Washington Post, April 1,2007, A2I; Greg Bruno, "Iran's Revolutionary Guards," Council on Foreign Relations, October25,2007;另有材料显示：革命卫队总兵力约30万人。其中,陆军约26.2万人,编成27个师和16个独立旅,主要装备有坦克500余辆、装甲运兵车500余辆,火炮1000余门。海军2万人,编成个3海防区,主要装备有各型巡逻艇余艘,导弹快艇21艘和岸防导弹等。空军1.8万人,编成8个中队、3个地对地导弹旅和1个防空导弹旅,装备各型号飞机110架、“飞毛腿”B、C等型号导弹数百枚。参见高广东、于洋、魏立英：“‘铁骑禁卫军’——伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队透视”,《当代世界》2006年第5期,第55页。
5 Lionel Beehner, "Russia-Iran Arms Trade," Congressional Research Service, November 1,2006. http://www.cfr.org/publication/11869/
1然而,2007年9月28日,以色列空军在美国空军的掩护下,躲过了叙利亚购买俄罗斯的“道尔”-M1导弹防空系统,轰炸了叙利亚1处所谓的“核设施”,有专家分析,这次袭击行动应该视为以色列准备空袭伊朗核设施时躲避伊朗防空系统的演练。
2 http://mil.news.sohu.com/s2006/siguojunliduibi/
3 Caspar W. Weinberger, "U.S. Defense Strategy", Foreign Affairs, Spring,1986, p.684. Christopher M. Gacek, The Logic of Force:The Dilemma of Limited War in American Foreign Policy, New York:Columbia University Press,1994,pp.165-166.这就是所谓的“温伯格/鲍威尔条例(Weinberger/Powell Doctrine)
1 Charles William Maynes, "The Limitations of Force," in The Aspen Strategy Group, The United States and the Use of Force in the Post-Cold War Era, Queenstown:The Aspen Institute,199S, pp.19-38.
2 Steven Mufson, "Strike on Iran Would Roil Oil Markets, Experts Say," The Washington Post, October 26,2007, A01
3赵伟明：“两伊冲突的历史根源”,《世界历史》1995年第5期,第122-126页Shahram Chubin and Charles Tripp, Iran and Iraq and War, Boulder:Westview Press,1988.
4 Trita Parsi, "Iran and Israel:The Avoidable War," Middle East Policy, Vol.14, No.3, Fall 2007, p.80.
1 Kenneth Schultz, Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2002, Introduction.
1 http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/, March 20,2008; In reference to:Amy Belasco, "The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11," CRS Report for Congress, Updated February 8, 2008.
2 Adrian Hyde-Price, "Justice and the American Way of War", AICGS Advisor, July 1,2004, pp.120-121.
3值得注意的是,从近一段时间来看,特别是默克尔任德国总理后,在伊朗核问题上,法德与美国关系迅速走近,欧洲正逐渐丧失自己的特色,似乎丧失了成为国际体系重要一极的作用。
4 All M. Ansari, Confronting Iran:The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Next Great Crisis in the Middle East, New York:Basic Books,2006, p.217.
5宪法监护委员会往往通过遴选和审批关键大选候选人资格左右伊朗政局,例如,广泛认为,2005年,代表伊朗新保守势力的内贾德击败改革派、当选总统与宪法监护委员会的干预具有直接关系。Frederic Tellier, "The Iranian Moment," Policy Focus #52, Washington, DC:The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, February 2006.
1参见叶青：《伊斯兰教与后冷战时期中东国际关系中的双重认知问题研究》,复旦大学博士论文,2007年,第105页。
2 Phyllis Bennis, et al, "Iran in the Crosshairs:How to Prevent Washington's Nest War," Washingtong D.C.:Institute for Policy Studies, p.19. http://www.fpif.org/pdf/reports/0802iranprimer.pdf
3李薇：“跨过核门槛是伊朗人的民族情结”,《海峡都市报》2006年3月17日。
4 Anthony C. Cain, "Iran's Strategic Culture and Weapons of Mass Destruction:Implications of US Policy," Maxwell Paper No.26, Air War College, April 2002, pp.5-6.
5 Glenn H. Snyder and Paul Diesing, Conflict among Nations:Bargaining, Decision Making and System Structure in International Crisis, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1977, p.340.
6 Friedrich V. Kratochwil, Rules, Norms, and Decisions:On the Conditions of Practical and Legal Reasoning in International Relations and Domestic Affairs, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1995, pp.151-248.
1 Wilfried Buchta, Who Rules Iran? The Structure of Power in the Islamic Republic, Washington, D.C.:Washington Institute of Near East Policy,2000, p.25.
2 Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, London:The President and Fellows of Harvard College,1980, p.28.
3 Greg Miller, "57% Back a Hit on Iran if Defiance Persists," Los Angeles Times, January 27,2006.
1 "Poll:Americans Nervous about Iran:Bush's Approval Rating Drops to 39 Percent," February 14,2006 http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/02/13/poll.iran/;李月：“美国民意：伊朗成为美国最大的敌人”,《华盛顿观察》2006年3月2日。
2 Philip Everts, Democracy and Military Force, London:Palgrave,2002.
3 Gregory L. Schulte, "In Bush Speech, Signs of Split on Iran Policy," The New York Times, September 16,2007.
1 "Iranian Parliament Moves To Suspend UN Nuclear Checks," Radio Free Europe, September 28,2005. http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2005/iran-050928-rfer101.htm
2 Intenational Crisis Group, "Iran:Is There a Way Out of the Nuclear Impasse," Middle East Report No.51, February 23, 2006, p.8.
3李焰：“‘死胡同’不死,伊朗核危机仍有出路”,《华盛顿观察》2006年第5期。
1 James A. Russell, Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East:Directions and Policy Options in the New Century, New York:Palgrave MacmillanTM,2006, p.56.
2 International Crisis Group, "Iran's Political/Nuclear Ambitions and U.S. Policy Options", U.S.Senate Foreign Relations Committee, May 18,2006. http://foreign.senate.gov/testimony/2006/SadjadpourTestimony060517.pdf
3 Colum Lynch, "Envoy:Iran to Continue its Nuclear Power Effect; U.S. Claims of Weapons Program Called 'Untrue'," The Washington Post, March 13,2003.
4 Scott MacLeod znd Nahid Siamdoust and Andrew Purvis, "Iran Still Defiant," Time, Vol.164, Iss.23, December 2004.
5 http://hahnews.blogspot.com/200602_01_archive.html;
6尽管拉夫桑贾尼也往往被认为起相对保守的伊朗领导人之一
7 Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, "Forcing Hard Choices on Tehran Raising the Costs of Iran's Nuclear Program", Policy Focus #62, November 2006, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, ⅷ.
1 Brenda Shaffer, Partners in Need:The Strategic Relationship of Russia and Iran, Policy Paper, No.57, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy,2001, pp.5-29.
2 Robert O. Freedman, "Russia, Iran, and the Nuclear Question:The Putin Record" Jerusalem Viewpoints, No.544,2 July 2006, http://www.jcpa.org/jl/vp544.htm; Vladimir A. Orlov and Alexander Vinnikov, "The Great Guessing Game: Russia and the Iranian Nuclear Issue," The Washington Quarterly, Vol.28, No.2, Spring 2005, p.57.
3 "Entire Bushehr Project under IAEA Control, Says Russian," Islamic Republic News Agency, March 3,2005. http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/russia/2005/russia-050303-irna01.htm
1 "Russian FM:Moscow Keen to Expand Cooperation, Ties with Tehran," Islamic Republic News Agency, Sept 12, 2005.http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2005/iran-050912-irna01.htm
2 "Remarks With Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov:Secretary Condoleezza Rice," October 15,2005. http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2005/55163.htm
3 Tom Sauer, "Iran:A Test for EU Coercive Diplomacy," CFSP Forum, Vol.2, Iss.6, November 2004, pp.1-15.
4 Bruce Jentleson, "Coercive Diplomacy:Scope and Limits in the Contemporary Worid", Policy Analysis Briefs, December 2006, p.10.
52006年1月,中国进口伊朗原油190万吨,同比上涨75%,伊朗一度超过沙特和安哥拉,成为中国的头号供油国。http://www.heavyoil.cn/news/2006-5-1092135.htm
6 Kyodo "China Becomes Iran's BiggestTrade Partner in 2006, Replacing Japan," Kyodo News, September 9,2007. http://asia.news. yahoo.com/070909/kyodo/d8rhkino0.html
1 Dingli Shen, "Iran's Nuclear Ambitions Test China's Wisdom," The Washington Quarterly, Vol.29, No.2, Spring 2006, pp.55-66.
2杨川：“李肇星会见伊朗外长和联合国秘书长”,新华网,2006年2月1日。
3 "Israeli President Brands Iran'Centre of Global Terror'," Agence France Presse, October 8,2007.
4 Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a Speech Given in Southeastern Fran, December 14,2005.
5 Remarks by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during a meeting with protesting students at the Iranian Interior Ministry, October 25,2005; Meir Rosenne, et al., Referral of Iranian President Ahmadinejad on the Charge of Incitement to Commit Genocide, Jerusalem:Edna Weinstock-Gabay,2007; Mike Rogers, "Recognizing Iran as a Strategic Threat: An Intelligence Challenge for the United States," Staff Report of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Subcommittee on Intelligence Policy, August 23,2006, p.3.
1 Mikhail Gorbachev, "The Nuclear Threat," The Wall Street Journal, January 31,2007; George Bunn & John B. Rhinelander, "Reykjavik Revisited:Toward a World Free of Nuclear Weapons," WSI Policy Brief, September 2007, p.2.
2欧叶：“以色列吁国际社会联合对抗伊朗发展核武器”,《中国日报》2006年2月15日。
3 Yaakov Katz, "Israel:IAEA's Report 'Unacceptable'," The Jerusalem Post, November16,2007.
4 Whitney Raas and Austin Long, "Osirak Redux? Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities," International Security, Vol.31, No.4, Spring 2007, pp.7-33; Uzi Mahnaimi & Sarah Baxter, "Israel Readies forces for Strike on Nuclear Iran," Sunday Times, December 11,2005; Anne Penketh, "Israel Raises Nuclear Stakes with Iran," The Independent, January 25,2007.
5 Ze'ev Schiff, "Israel's War with Iran," Foreign Affairs, Vol.85, No.6,2006, p.31.
6 Raula Khalaf and Gareth Smyth, "Iran Warns against UN Referral,"Financial Times, January-22,2006.
'GOV/2006/14, February 4,2006, p.2.
8赵伟明：“挑战美国地位,重塑大国形象——俄罗斯对中东战略的变化与俄美关系”,《西亚非洲》2007年第10期。
9 Gerald M. Steinberg, "Can Diplomacy still Prevent Iran Going Nuclear?" Jerusalem Issue Brief, Vol.5, No.11, December 1,2005. http://www.jcpa.org/briefybrief005-11.htm
1 Bruce Jentleson, "Coercive Diplomacy:Scope and Limits in the Contemporary World", Policy Analysis Briefs, December 2006, p.10.
2虽然中国与伊朗签署了多项能源合作开发与开采协议,但一些至今尚未能得到伊朗议会的批准,未能得以实施。
1 Jahangir Amuzegar, "Nuclear Iran:Perils and Prospects," Middle East Policy, Vol.ⅩⅢ, No.2, Summer 2006 p.107.
2 Volker Perthes and Eva Wegner, "Enriching the Options Europe, the United States,and Iran," Discussion Paper, German Institute for International and Security Affaires, June 2006, pp.3-4.
3“俄法德西就伊朗核问题达成一致”,《新京报》2005年3月20日。
1 GOV/2005/77,24 September 2005.
2李新：“民意调查：多数欧洲人不认为伊朗对其构成核威胁”,《中国日报》2005年3月31日。
3尤其是美欧,往往将伊朗核问题与伊朗问题等同或混淆看待,希望将通过伊朗核问题解决伊朗问题。
1 http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/05/30/news/iran.php; http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2006-09/17/content_5100554.htm
2 The Philological Society, The Oxford English Dictionary (Volume Ⅺ:Y-U), Oxford:Oxford University Press,1978, p.352.
3 David J. Myers, Regional Hegemons:Threat Perception and Strategic Response, Boulder and Oxford:Westview Press, 1991, p.3.
4 David Baldwin, "Thinking about Threats," Jourral of Conflict Resolution, Vol.15,No.1,1971, pp.71-78.
5 Charles Hermann, "International Crisis as a Situational Variable," in James N. Rosenau, International Politics and Foreign Policy:A Reader in Research and Theory, New Vork:The Free Press,1969, pp.411-416.
6 Stephen J. Cimbala, Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation in the Twenty-first Century, London:Praeger,2001, p.97.
7 Paul C. Stern, and Daniel Druckman, International Conflict Resolution after the Cold War, Washington, D.C.:National Academy Press,2000, pp.95-96.
8 David Singer, "Threat-Perception and the Armament Tension Dilemma," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.2,No.2,1958,pp.93-94.在这里,辛格相对忽视了威胁认知的非理性与无意识性。
1 Dean G. Pruitt, "Definition of the Situation as a Determinant pf International Action," in Hebert C. Kelman, International Behavior:A Social-Psychological Analysis, New York:Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Inc.,1965, p.400.
2 David L. Rousseau and Rocio Garcia-Retamero, "Identity, Power, and Threat Perception:A Cross-National Experimental Study, "Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.51, No.5, October 2007, p.745.
3 Kenneth E. Boulding, Ecodynamics:A New Theory of Societal Evolution, Beverly Hill:Sage Publications,1978, p.157.
4 Steven J. Brams and D. Marc Kilgour, Game Theory and National Security, New York and Oxford:Basil Blackwell Inc.,1988, p.173.
5 John H. Herz, International Politics in the Atomic Age, New York and London:Columbia University Press,1963, p.231: The Nation-State and The Crisis of World Politics:Essays on International Politics in the Twentieth Century, David Mackay Company, Inc., 1976, pp.72-73.
6 Barry Buzan, People, States and Fear:an Agenda for International Security Studies in the Post-Cold War Era, Hemel Hempstead:Harvester Wheatsheaf,1991, p.295.
7罗伯特·杰维斯：《国际政治中的知觉与错误知觉》,秦亚青译,世界知识出版社,2003年版,第83页。
8 Robert Jervis, "Realism, Game theory, and Cooperation", World Politics, Vol.40, April 1988, p.317.
9 Robert Jervis, "Cooperation under the Security Dilemma", World Politics, Vol.30, No.2, January 1978, pp.186-214.
1 Jo-Anne Hart, "Perceptions and Courses of Actions toward Iran," Military Review, September-October 2005, p.10.
2 Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics among Nations:The Struggle for Power and Peace, New York:Alfred A. Knopf, Inc., 1949, pp.125-166.
3罗伯特·0.基欧汉：《新现实主义及其批判》,郭树勇译,北京大学出版社,2002年版。
4 Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, Cambridge:Cambridge Vniversity Press,1999.
5 John J. Mearsheimer, Conventional Deterrence, Ithaca and London:Cornell University Press,1983.
6哈伦·厄尔曼,詹姆斯·韦德：《震慑与畏惧—迅速制敌之道》,腾建群,王春生等译,新华出版社,2003年版,第5-6页。
7 William W. Keller and Gordon R. Mitchell, Hittling First:Preventive Force in U.S. Security Strategy, Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, pp.3-26.
8刘阿明,王联合：“先发制人与预防性战争辨析——以布什政府国家安全战略为例”,《学术探索》2004年第11期,第68-72页。
1 Raymond Cohen, Threat Perception in international Crisis, Wisconsin:Wisconsin Press,1979, p.4, pp.79-83.
2 Klaus Knorr, Historical Dimension of National Security Problems, Kansas:Lawrence,1976, p.78.
3 Ben D. Mor, Decision and Interaction in Crisis:A Model of International Crisis Behavior, Westport:Praege Publishers,1993, p.4.
4 Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1987.
5 Arnold Wolfers, Discord and Collaboration:Essays on International Politics, Baltimore:the John Hopkins Press,1962, pp.182-183.
6邱美荣：“威胁认知与朝核危机”,《当代亚太》2005年第6期,第6页。
1 J. David Singer, Deterrence, Arms Control, and Disarmament:Toward a Synthesis in National Security Policy, Lanham and New York and London:University Press of America,1984, p.57.
2 Phyllis Bennis, et al, "Iran in the Crosshairs:How to Prevent Washington's Nest War," Washington D.C.:Institute for Policy Studies, February 2008, p.7. http://www.fpif.org/pdf/reports/0802iranprimer.pdf
3但并不表示不重视伊朗的军事能力。一旦战争爆发,伊朗必然不会与美国硬碰硬,而会采用“你打你的,我打我的”战略,即躲避美国的正面进攻,集中打击美国容易受伤的薄弱环节。
1 A.F.K.Organsky, World Politics, New York:Alfred A. Knopf,1958; A.F.K.Organsky and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger, Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1980; David Dapkin and William R. Thompson, "Power Transition, Challenge and the (Re)Emergence of China," International Interactions, Vol.29,2003, pp.317-321.
1 Andrew M. Scott, "A Challenge-Response Theory of International Relations," American Behavioural Scientist, Vol.1, 1958, pp.24-26.
2 Richard Smoke, War:Controlling Escalation, London:Harvard University Press,1977, p.27.
3 John H. Herz, "Idealist Internationalism and Security Dilemma," World Politics, Vol.2, No.2, January 1950, pp.157-158; John H. Herz, Political Realism and Political Idealism, Chicago:Chicago University Press,1951, p.3.
4 Herbert Butterfield, History and Human Relations, London:Collins,1951, p.21.
5罗伯特·杰维斯：《国际政治中的知觉与错误知觉》,秦亚青译,世界知识出版社,2003年版,第68-69页。
6 Lisa J. Carlson. "A Theory of Escalation and International Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.39, No.3, September 1995, p.53.
7 Dean Pruitt and Jeffrey Z. Rubin and Sung Hee Kim, Social conflict:Escalation, Stalemate and Settlement, New York: McGraw-Hill,1994, p.69.
8 Michael S. Lund, Preventing Violent Conflicts:A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy, Washington D.C.:United States Institute for Peace,1996.
1 I. William Zartman and Guy Olivier Faure, Escalation and Negotiation in International Conflicts, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2004, pp.7-8.
2 Richard Ned Lebow, Nuclear Crisis Management:A Dangerous Illusion, Ithaca and London:Cornell University Press, 1987, p.105.
3 In reference to Frank C. Zagare and D. Marc Kilgour, Perfect Deterrence, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2000, p.181.
1 In reference to Frank C. Zagare and D. Marc Kilgour, Perfect Deterrence, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2000, p.193.
2关于攻防理论的详细评述,参见Jack S. Levy, "The Offensive/Defensive Balance of Military Technology:A Theoretical and Historical Analysis", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.38, No.2, June 1984, pp.219-238; Sean M. Lynn-Jones, "Offense-Defense Theory and Its Critics," Security Studies, Vol.4, No.4, Summer1995, pp.660-691; Stephen Van Evera, "Offense, Defense, and the Causes of War," International Security,Vol.22.No.4, Spring 1998, pp.5-43; Charles L. Glaser and Chaim Kaufmann, "What is the Offense-Defense Balance and Can We Measure it?" International Security, Vol.22, No.4, Spring 1998, pp.44-82; Biddle Stephen, "Rebuilding the Foundations of Offense-Defense Theory," Journal of Politics, Vol.63, Issue.3, August 2001, pp.741-774; Karen Ruth Adams, "Attack and Conquer? International Anarchy and the Offense-Defense-Deterrence Balance" International Security, Vol.28, No.3, Winter 2003/04, pp.45-83; Michael E. Brown and Owen R. Cote Jr. and Sean M. Lynn-Jones and Steven E. Miller, Offense, Defense, and War, Massachusetts:The MIT Press,2004; Yoav Gortzak and Yoram Z. Haftel and Kevin Sweeney, "Offense-Defense Theory:An Empirical Assessment," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.49, No.1, February 2005, pp.67-89.
1 Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics, New York:Cambridge University Press,1981, pp.61-63.
2 Robert Jervis, "Cooperation under the Security Dilemma", World Politics, Vol.30, No.2, January 1978, pp.186-194.
3 Frank C. Zagare and D. Marc Kilgour, Perfect Deterrence, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2000, p.181.
1 IAEA GOV/2007/48, Attachment, August 30,2007, p.2.
1 James Morrow, Game Theory for Political Scientist, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1994, p.7, pp.17-19; David A. Lake and Robert Powell, Strategic Choice and International Relations, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1999,p.7；周方银：“形式模型与国际关系研究”,《外交评论》2006年第4期,第97页。
2 Karen Cook and Margaret Levi, The Limits of Rationality, Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1990, p.2.
3 Jonathan Cohn, "Irrational Exuberance:When did Political Science Forget about Politics? New Republic, October 25 1999, p.25.
4陈彬： “关于理性选择理论的思考”, 《东南学术》2006年第1期,第120页。
5 Karl-Dieter Opp, The Rationality of Political Protest:A Comparative Analysis of Rational Choice Theory, Boulder, San Francisco, and London:Westview Press,1989, pp.7-8:Donald P. Green, Pathologies of Rational Choice Theory:A Critique of Applications in Political Science, New York and London:Yale University Press,1994, pp.14-16.
1 Karl-Dieter Opp, The Rationality of Political Protest:A Comparative Analysis of Rational Choice Theory, Boulder, San Francisco, and London:Westview Press,1989, pp.8-11.
2周方银：“形式模型与国际关系研究”,《外交评论》2006年第4期,第97页。
3虽然一些学者认为战略偏好的实用性并不清晰,但是这些偏好却往往推动战略制定者集中某些主要战略目标,并无意识地将这些偏好与战略目标结合在一起。Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision:Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, New York:Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.,1999, p.24.
4 Steven Jay Bell, "A critical Analysis of the Strategic Decision-Making Process for Information Technology in AcademicLlibraries," UMI, A Dissertation in Program Specialization Presented to the Faculties of the University of Pennsylvania in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Education,1997, p.18.
5 Robert Jervis, "Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma," World Politics, Vol.30, No.2, January 1978, pp.170-183;张维迎：《博弈论与信息经济学》,上海三联书店,1997年版,第5页。
6王鸣鸣：“外交决策研究中的理性选择模式”,《世界经济与政治》2003年第11期,第17页。
1 Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics, New York:McGraw-Hill, Inc.,1979, p.105.
2 Robert Jervis, "Cooperation under Security Dilemma," World Politics, Vol.30, No.2, January 1978. pp.167-214.
3 Michael Nicholson, Rationality and the Analysis of International Conflict, New York:Cambridge University Press, 1992, p.4.
1 Robert A. Pape, Bombing to Win:Air Power and Coercion in War, Ithaca and New York:Corneall University Press, 1996, pp.15-16.
2 Stephen Weinberger, "Neorealism, Iranian Style," Iranian Studies, Vol.40, No.1, February 2007, pp.5-16.
3 Gordon Thomas, "Israeli Subs Have Nukes Aimed at Iranian Sites," American Free Press, February 3,2006.
4 Matt Spetalnick, "Bush:Threat of World War Ⅲ if Iran Goes Nuclear," The Reuter, October 17,2007. http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1732974320071017
1 Nigel Howard, Paradoxes of Rationality:The Theory ofMetagames and Political Behavior, Cambridge:MIT Press, 1971; Robert Axelrod, The Evolution of Cooperation, New York:Basic Books, Inc., Publishers,1984.
2罗伯特·阿克塞尔罗德,罗伯特·基欧汉：“无政府状态下的战略和制度合作”,戴维·A.鲍德温：《新现实主义和新自由主义》,肖欢容译,浙江人民出版社,2001年版,第104-105页。
3王鸣鸣：“外交决策研究中的理性选择模式”,《世界经济与政治》2003年第11期,第19页；Robert Axelrod and William D. Hamilton, "The Evolution of Cooperation," Science, Vol.211,27 March 1981, pp.1390-1396.
4 Robert Axelrod, The Evolution of Cooperation, New York:Basic Books, Inc., Publishers; 1984,pp.11-12;罗伯特·艾克斯罗德：《对策中的制胜之道——合作的进化》,吴坚忠译,上海人民出版社,1996年版,第11页。
5 Charles F. Hermann and Charles W. Kegley Jr. and James N. Rosenau, New Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy, Winchester:Allen & Unwin, Inc.,1987, pp.203-220.
6这种选择战略的潜在困境在于：这种模式要求选择者充分了解对手前一个选择的全部信息,这与实践中选择者推理过程存在不确定性存在一定反差。Jonathan Bendor, "Uncertainty and the Evolution of Cooperation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.37, No.4 December 1993, p.710.
1罗伯特·艾克斯罗德：《对策中的制胜之道——合作的进化》,吴坚忠译,上海人民出版社,2007年版,第126页。
1 Zeev Maoz, "Resolve, Capabilities, and the Outcomes of Interstate Disputes,1816-1976," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.27, No.2, June 1983, p.200.
2 Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence, New Haven:Yale University Press,1966, p.74.
3 Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1976; "Deterrence and Perception", International Security, Vol.7, No.3, Winter,1982-1983, pp.3-30; The Illogic of American Nuclear Strategy, Ithaca and London:Cornell University Press,1984; The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution:Statecraft and the Prospect of Armageddon, Ithaca and London:Cornell University Press,1989, pp.136-173.
4 Oran. R. Young, The Politics of Force:Bargaining during International Crises, Princeton:Princeton University Press, 1968, pp.177-216.
5 Alexander L. George, President's Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy:The Effective Use of Information and Advice, Boulder:Westview Press,1980, pp.25-53.
1 Adrian Hyde-Price, "European Democracies and Coercive Diplomacy:The EU and the ESDP," Paper presented at the 31st Annual BISA Conference, University College Cork, December 18-20,2006, p.25.
2 Henry A. Kissinger, Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy, Boulder:Westview Press,1957, p.132.
3 John Spanier, Games Nations Play,6th, Washington, D.C.:Harper & Row, Publishers, Inc.,1987, pp.217-218.
4 J. David Singer, Deterrence, Arms Control, and Disarmament, Columbus:Ohio State University Press,1962, p.162.
5 K.J. Holsti, International Politics:A Framework for Analysis, New Jersey:Prentice Hall,1995, p.221.
1如果不存在屈服的环境,决策者可能先发制人,希望在战略上变被动为主动,如1967年以色列对埃及的战争,这需要决策者具有坚强的政治意志。
2 Alexander L. George, President's Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy:The Effective Use of Information and Advice, Boulder:Westview Press,1980, pp.25-53; Richard Little and Steve Smith, Belief System and International Relations, Oxford:Basil Blackwell Inc.,1988; Ole R. Holsti and James N. Rosenau, "The Domestic and Foreign Policy Beliefs of American Leaders," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.32, No.2, June 1988, pp.248-294.
1 Zeev Maoz, "Resolve, Capabilities, and the Outcomes of Interstate Disputes,1816-1976," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.27, No.2, June 1983, p.215.
2关于“软制衡”,参见Robert A. Pape, "Soft Balancing against the United States," International Security, Vol.30, No. 1, Summer 2005, pp.7-45; T.V. Paul, "Soft Balancing in the Age of U.S. Primacy," International Security, Vol.30, No. 1, Summer 2005, pp.46-71; Stephen G. Brooks and William C. Wohiforth, "Hard Times for Soft Balancing," International Security, Vol.30, No.1, Summer 2005, pp.72-108; Judith Kelley, "Strategic Non-Cooperation as Soft Balancing:Why Iraq Was not Just about Iraq," Internationaf Politics, Vol.42, Iss.2,2005, pp.153-173; Evelyn Goh, "Meeting the China Challenge:The U.S. in Southeast Asian Regional Security Strategies," Policy Studies, No.16, Washington:East-West Center,2005.
1 Robert Keohane, International Institutions and State Power:Essays in International Relations Theory, Boulder Westview Press,1989, p.234.
2罗伯特·吉尔平： 《世界政治中的战争与变革》,中国人民大学出版社,1994年版,第29-38页；门洪华：“国际机制与美国霸权”, 《美国研究》2001年第1期,第79页。
3 Lawrence Freedman, "Great Powers, Vital Interests and Nuclear Weapons," Survival, Winter 1994/1995, p.36.
1 Stephen J. Cimbala, Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation in the Twenty-first Century, London:Praeger,2001, p.106.
2 Sharon Squassoni, "U.S. Nuclear Cooperation with India:Issues for Congress," CRS Report for Congress, January 12, 2006. http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/59365.pdf
3 http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/01/20060131-10.html
4 The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, March 16,2006, p.20. http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss/2006/nss2006.pdf
1 National Intelligence Estimate, "Iran:Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities," The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, November 2007. http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf
2 Nasser Hadian, "Iran's Nuclear Program:Contexts and Debates," in. Geoffrey Kemp,Iran's Bomb:American and Iranian Perspectives, Washington D.C.:The Nixon Center,2004, p.56.
3 Ray Takeyh, Hidden Iran:Paradox and Power in the Islamic Republic, New York:Times Books,2006, p.149.
4 "Iran Sudents in Nuclear Protest," BBC News Online, November 1,2004. http://news.bbc.co.uk/I/hi/world/middle_east/3972711.stm
5 Cirincione, Joseph and Wolfsthal, Jon B. and Rajkumar, Miriam, Deadly Arsenals:Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threats, Washington, D.C.:The Brookings Institution Press,2005, p.297.
6 Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, "Forcing Hard Choices on Tehran Raising the Costs of Iran's Nuclear Program", Policy Focus #62, November 2006, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, p.Ⅷ.
1 Zbigniew Brzezinski, "A Partner for Dealing with Iran? The Lessons of U.S.-China Cooperation on Pyongyang", The Washington Post, November 30,2007, p.A23. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/29/AR2007112901876.html
2 Scott D. Sagan, "How to Keep the Bomb from Iran," Foreign Affairs, Vol.85, No.5,2006, pp.58-59.
1 Alexander L. George and David K. Half and William E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, Boston:Little, Brown and Company,1971, pp.36-85, pp.144-210.
2 Alexander L. George and William E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, Boulder:Westview,1994, pp.175-228.
3 Robert J. Art and Patrick M. Cronin, The United States and Coercive Diplomacy, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,2004, pp.57-224, pp.275-303.
1指被强制方根据强制方的期待自动地调节自己的行为。David Pollock, The Politics of Pressure:American Arms and Israeli Policy since the Six Day War, Westport and London:Greenwood Press,1982, p.5.
1 Alexander L. George, Peaceful Persuasion:Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War, Washington, D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,1993, pp.10-11.
2 Shahram Chubin, Iran's Nuclear Ambitions, Washington, D.C.:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,2006, p.95.
1 Bradley A Thayer, "The Causes of Nuclear Proliferation and the Unity of the NuclearNonproliferation Regime," Security Studies, Vol.4, No.3, Spring 1995, p.468.
2预防性外交主要强调外交的预防目的,在危机尚未出现,或尚未产生影响时,就利用外交手段,缓和或消除危机。Michael S. Lund, Preventing Violent Conflicts:A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy, Washington D.C.:United States Institute of Peace Press,1996; Alexander L. George, "Strategies for Preventive Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution: Scholarship for Policymaking," PS:Political Science and Politics, Vol.33, No.1, March 2000;艾什敦卡特、威廉姆佩里：《预防性防御：一向美国新安全战略》,胡利平、杨韵琴译,上海人民出版社,2000年版；李莉：“冷战后预防性外交的发展及影响”,《现代国际关系》2001年第10期。
1 Michael Rubin, "Can Iran Be Trusted?" American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, No.1, September 2006.
2 Henry Sokolski, Patrick Clawson, Checking Iran's Nuclear Ambitions, The Strategic Studies Institute, January 2004, p.Ⅶ. http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB368.pdf
3伊朗当前“拥核崛起”主要还是体现在拥有和平性质的核技术方面,伊朗官方并没有公开正式主张希望通过拥有核武器,实现国家崛起。
1 Graham E. Fuller, "The Hizballah-Iran Connection:Model for Sunni Resistance," The Washington Quarterly, Vol.30, No.1, Winter 2007, pp.139-150.
1朱幸福：“伊朗为何敢同美国叫板?”《文汇报》2006年1月17日。
2 Golnaz Esfandiari, "Iran/U.S.:Bush Says All Options on the Table for Tehran's Nuclear Program," Radio Free Europe, January 18,2005. http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/01/116e4efa-364c-4e09-aa9f-381cb5140da8.html
1 http://military.china.com/zh_cn/important/64/20060215/13095116.html
2如果伊暂停铀浓缩和后处理活动,遵守国际原子能机构和联合国安理会的相关决议,联合国安理会将中止、甚至取消制裁。http://www.un.org/chinese/radio/print_all.asp?NewsDate=3/3/2008
1 Dany Shoham, Chemical and Biological Weapons in the Arab Countries and Iran-An Existential Threat to Israel, ACPR Publishers, July 2001, pp.52-56; Seth Carus, "Iranian Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Weapons:Implications and Responses," Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol.2, No.1, March 1998, pp.12-22.
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