中纬度亚洲年代际—年际尺度气候变化的“西风模态”及其驱动机制研究
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摘要
中纬度亚洲大陆大致可划分为以季风环流控制为主的“季风亚洲”和常年受到西风环流控制的“西风亚洲”。自全新世以来,在千年-百年的时间尺度上,“西风亚洲”的降水(有效湿度)变化都表现出与“季风亚洲”的错位相／反位相趋势,称之为全新世气候变化的“西风模态”。然而在更短的不同时间尺度,中纬度亚洲的降水空间格局分布是否也具有相似的特征却并不清楚。同时“西风亚洲”具有典型的中纬度西风带气候,也是连接高-低纬大气环流、海洋的纽带,另一方面,在全球变暖的背景下,此区域的气温在过去一个世纪经历了超过平均水平的剧烈上升,这导致了蒸发的加剧和土壤湿度的下降,从而对区域水循环产生了深刻的影响。因此,系统地梳理这些现象之间的联系,同时追本溯源,研究影响其变化的物理机制无论是对理解科学问题还是对干旱区的可持续发展战略都具有重要的意义。论文利用现代丰富的气象数据资料,从现代不同的时间尺度探讨中纬度亚洲降水“西风模态”,并分析造成这样现象的物理机制。
本文首先利用地表的纬向风与经向风的转换,并结合现代季风边界、干旱区界限客观梳理并划分了“西风模态”理论框架中现代气候条件背景下的“西风区”范围：主要包括我国新疆、河西走廊以及北界至50。N的中亚干旱区主体。然后依据Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC)分辨率为1.0。×1.0。的月降水量及1948-2012年NCEP/NCAR分辨率为2.5°×2.5。的再分析逐月资料,诠释了“西风区”的特征：常年受到西风环流控制,风场的转换与季风区有很大的不同,并且在“西风区”范围内部降水特征也存在区域差异。
基于1930-2009年Climatic Research Unit (CRU)分辨率为0.5。×0.5。的月降水量资料,对近80年来中亚干旱区降水变化的特征及区域差异进行了分析：区域整体年降水表现出增加的趋势,又以冬季降水的增加表现的最为明显；依据年降水变化特征,可将区域划分为五个子区域,分别为Ⅰ区-哈萨克斯坦西区、Ⅱ区-哈萨克斯坦东区、Ⅲ区-中亚平原区、Ⅳ区-吉尔吉斯斯坦区、Ⅴ区-伊朗高原区,其中Ⅰ、Ⅱ区的四季降水分布比较均匀,而Ⅲ、Ⅳ、Ⅴ区以冬、春季降水为主；各个子分区除了Ⅴ区之外,其他区域的降水都表现出增加的趋势,与整体一致,也主要取决于冬季的变化趋势；结合“西风区”中其他区域及中纬度季风区己有的研究,共同说明在年代际时间尺度上也存在降水变化的“西风模态”。
“西风区”的降水具有显著的年际波动信号,特别是准两年振荡(TBO)。同样依据CRU月降水量及NCEP/NCAR再分析逐月资料,对近50年中纬度亚洲的年降水进行了EOF分析后发现,降水的“西风模态”也同样适用于年际时间尺度。进而针对不同区域的主要降水季节,分别分析了相应季节的大气环流异常特征：冬季时,在负相位的北大西洋涛动(NAO),西伯利亚的高度场负异常和青藏高原南部高度场正异常的共同作用下,使得来自地中海和阿拉伯海的异常水汽输送带在中亚辐合,由此造成“西风区”降水高值年份的出现；当年夏季,来自蒙古干冷空气的辐散、西太平洋副高的南移、高空西风急流的阻碍共同作用,导致了中纬度东部季风区降水出现低值年份。同时通过计算区域西风指数发现“西风区”的降水与上风向的西风强度有很好的正相关关系,而ENSO是影响华北降水的一个重要因子,因此,低纬的重要信号ENSO和中、高纬的西风强度以及NAO的相互作用可能是造成年际尺度“西风模态”的主要驱动机制。
中国西北的塔克拉玛干及周边戈壁沙漠地区是中纬度西风区最干旱的地区之一,常年水资源极度匮乏。论文挑选其作为“西风区”内部的典型区域,利用Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC)分辨率为1.0°×1.0。的月降水量及NCEP/NCAR、NCEP-CFSR再分析逐月资料,研究其夏季降水、水汽收支的变化及相关的物理机制。结果表明,尽管多年平均的水汽来自于西界的上风向,但是影响区域夏季降水变化主要是因为来自南边阿拉伯海的水汽向北的输送,这种水汽的异常输送是由阿拉伯海和北印度洋的潜热释放产生的水汽在纬向的“丝绸之路遥相关”和500E-800E经度范围的经向遥相关共同作用下被输送至南疆地区,之后气流上升,从而导致了南疆及周边地区夏季降水的增加。另外,由于“丝绸之路遥相关”在我国华北表现出高度场正异常而在东北表现出高度场负异常,会导致华北地区的气流下沉和水汽输送的减少,直接造成了华北降水的减少,这很好地解释了此典型区域夏季降水与中纬度亚洲季风区呈现相反变化的原因。而且此物理机制的适用范围可以扩展到过去2000年。进一步对此区域夏季主要降水事件的气团追踪也证明了当出现大的降水事件时,气团的输送路径有一些是来自于阿拉伯海。
The mid-latitude Asian continent can be roughly divided into two distinct climatic regions:the humid eastern-southern part of Asia mainly influenced by monsoon circulation and the inland arid/semiarid part of western Asia dominated by the mid-latitude westerlies. Anti-phase/out-of-phase relationship in precipitation (moisture) changes between the inland arid Asia and eastern-southern part of Asia exists on centennial to millennial timescale during the Holocene. It is thus proposed that there is a 'westerlies-dominated climate regime'in mid-latitude Asia during the modern interglacial period. However, it is not clear that such spatiotemporal precipitation/moisture variations also exist on interannual to decadal time scales. The inland arid Asia is one of the largest arid regions at the middle latitudes. The climate changes in this region are closely linked to the change of atmospheric circulations/sea surface temperature (SST). For example, the precipitation variations in this region are strongly influenced by the westerly circulation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The temperature also increased rapidly during the past century in the context of global warming. These results cause increasing evaporation to and decreasing soil moisture, which in term significantly affects the change of regional hydrological cycle. Therefore, understanding the variations of precipitation on interannual to decadal scales in mid-latitude Asia is of paramount importance for the regional agriculture and economy. This study analyzed the 'westerlies-dominated climate regime'in mid-latitude Asia on interannual to decadal scales and their physical processes using instrumental and reanalysis datasets.
Based on 'westerlies-dominated climate regime', this study firstly used the surface wind fields, and the boundary of the summer monsoon and arid regions to define the'modern westerly circulation dominated region', which contains Xinjiang, Hexi Corridor in China and the arid Central Asia (ACA). Additionally, based on the monthly precipitation dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and monthly geopotential height, winds and specific humidity on pressure levels from the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis, the climatic features associated with the 'modern westerly circulation dominated region'were identified. Those features include1) The precipitation variations are influenced by westerly circulation year round;2) The shifts of surface wind from winter to summer are distinctly different from that in the monsoon dominated middle latitude Eastern Asia;3) The precipitation variations in the area also differ regionally.
This study further analyzed the temporal precipitation variations in the ACA and their regional differences during the past80years using monthly gridded precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). Our results showed that the annual precipitation in this westerly circulation dominated arid region is generally increasing during the past80years, with an apparent increasing trend in winter. The precipitation variations in ACA also differ regionally, which can be divided into five distinct subregions:I-West Kazakhstan region, II-East Kazakhstan region, Ⅲ-Central Asia Plains region, Ⅳ-Kyrgyzstan region, and Ⅴ-Iran Plateau region. The annual precipitation falls fairly even on all seasons in the subregions I and II, whereas the annual precipitation is falling mainly on winter and spring in the subregions Ⅲ, IV and Ⅴ. The annual precipitation is increasing on all subregions except the subregion V. The long-term trends in annual precipitation in all subregions are determined mainly by trends in winter precipitation. The increasing precipitation in 'modern westerly circulation dominated region'is opposite to that of the summer monsoon dominated regions in China, suggesting that the 'westerly-dominant climate regime' also existed on decadal scales.
The precipitation in 'modern westerly circulation dominated region' has significant interannual variations, especially Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO), which is linked to the variations of westerly circulation in the middle troposphere. This study analyzed the spatial differences of the precipitation variations in the mid-latitude Asia and their possible physical mechanisms during1960-2009. The annual precipitation showed an opposite variation between the 'modern westerly circulation dominated region' and summer monsoon dominated regions, suggesting that the 'westerly-dominant climate regime' also existed on interannual scales. Given the different contributions of seasonal precipitation to annual total precipitation in both regions, the atmospheric circulation anomalies during the major precipitation seasons were analyzed. In winter, negative North Atlantic Oscillation may cause negative height anomalies over the north side and positive anomalies over the south side of the 'modem westerly circulation dominated region'. Together, the enhanced pressure gradient and anomalous westerly wind brings more water vapor to the region, and leaves less precipitation in summer monsoon dominated regions. In summer, the low-pressure anomalies in Northeast China, along with a weaker summer monsoon and negative height anomalies in Eastern Europe together contribute to reduced (excessive) summer precipitation in summer monsoon dominated regions ('modern westerly circulation dominated arid region'). The interactions between ENSO and NAO may result in the opposite precipitation variations between the two regions.
The Taklimakan and the adjacent Gobi Desert (TD in short) in northwestern China is the most arid region in the modern westerly circulation dominated region, where water is scarce year round. As the typical case, this study investigated the variations of summer precipitation in TD and their association with water vapor flux and atmospheric circulation using the monthly precipitation dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and monthly geopotential height, winds and specific humidity on pressure levels from the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) and the new NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Though the long-term mean water vapor mostly comes from the west, the variations of summer precipitation in TD are dominated by the water vapor flux from the south, which originates from the Arabian Sea. The anomalous water vapor fluxes are closely associated with the meridional teleconnection pattern around50(?)-80(?) and the zonal teleconnection pattern along the Asian westerly jet in summer. The meridional teleconnection connects the Central Asia and the tropical Indian Ocean; and the zonal teleconnection resembles the'Silk Road pattern'. The two teleconnections lead to negative height anomalies in the Central Asia and the positive height anomalies in the Arabian Sea/India and North Central China. The anomalous pressure gradient force, caused by those height anomalies, leads to anomalous ascending motion in TD and brings more water vapor from the Arabian Sea passing over the Tibetan Plateau to influence the precipitation development in the study region. These mechanisms can well explain the out-of-phase relationship between the TD precipitation and the Indian summer monsoon in the instrumental period and the past2000years. Furthermore, this study analyzed the air mass back trajectory track of heavy precipitation events, suggesting that the water vapor fluxes influencing TD mostly come from the Arabian Sea.
本文首先利用地表的纬向风与经向风的转换,并结合现代季风边界、干旱区界限客观梳理并划分了“西风模态”理论框架中现代气候条件背景下的“西风区”范围：主要包括我国新疆、河西走廊以及北界至50。N的中亚干旱区主体。然后依据Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC)分辨率为1.0。×1.0。的月降水量及1948-2012年NCEP/NCAR分辨率为2.5°×2.5。的再分析逐月资料,诠释了“西风区”的特征：常年受到西风环流控制,风场的转换与季风区有很大的不同,并且在“西风区”范围内部降水特征也存在区域差异。
基于1930-2009年Climatic Research Unit (CRU)分辨率为0.5。×0.5。的月降水量资料,对近80年来中亚干旱区降水变化的特征及区域差异进行了分析：区域整体年降水表现出增加的趋势,又以冬季降水的增加表现的最为明显；依据年降水变化特征,可将区域划分为五个子区域,分别为Ⅰ区-哈萨克斯坦西区、Ⅱ区-哈萨克斯坦东区、Ⅲ区-中亚平原区、Ⅳ区-吉尔吉斯斯坦区、Ⅴ区-伊朗高原区,其中Ⅰ、Ⅱ区的四季降水分布比较均匀,而Ⅲ、Ⅳ、Ⅴ区以冬、春季降水为主；各个子分区除了Ⅴ区之外,其他区域的降水都表现出增加的趋势,与整体一致,也主要取决于冬季的变化趋势；结合“西风区”中其他区域及中纬度季风区己有的研究,共同说明在年代际时间尺度上也存在降水变化的“西风模态”。
“西风区”的降水具有显著的年际波动信号,特别是准两年振荡(TBO)。同样依据CRU月降水量及NCEP/NCAR再分析逐月资料,对近50年中纬度亚洲的年降水进行了EOF分析后发现,降水的“西风模态”也同样适用于年际时间尺度。进而针对不同区域的主要降水季节,分别分析了相应季节的大气环流异常特征：冬季时,在负相位的北大西洋涛动(NAO),西伯利亚的高度场负异常和青藏高原南部高度场正异常的共同作用下,使得来自地中海和阿拉伯海的异常水汽输送带在中亚辐合,由此造成“西风区”降水高值年份的出现；当年夏季,来自蒙古干冷空气的辐散、西太平洋副高的南移、高空西风急流的阻碍共同作用,导致了中纬度东部季风区降水出现低值年份。同时通过计算区域西风指数发现“西风区”的降水与上风向的西风强度有很好的正相关关系,而ENSO是影响华北降水的一个重要因子,因此,低纬的重要信号ENSO和中、高纬的西风强度以及NAO的相互作用可能是造成年际尺度“西风模态”的主要驱动机制。
中国西北的塔克拉玛干及周边戈壁沙漠地区是中纬度西风区最干旱的地区之一,常年水资源极度匮乏。论文挑选其作为“西风区”内部的典型区域,利用Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC)分辨率为1.0°×1.0。的月降水量及NCEP/NCAR、NCEP-CFSR再分析逐月资料,研究其夏季降水、水汽收支的变化及相关的物理机制。结果表明,尽管多年平均的水汽来自于西界的上风向,但是影响区域夏季降水变化主要是因为来自南边阿拉伯海的水汽向北的输送,这种水汽的异常输送是由阿拉伯海和北印度洋的潜热释放产生的水汽在纬向的“丝绸之路遥相关”和500E-800E经度范围的经向遥相关共同作用下被输送至南疆地区,之后气流上升,从而导致了南疆及周边地区夏季降水的增加。另外,由于“丝绸之路遥相关”在我国华北表现出高度场正异常而在东北表现出高度场负异常,会导致华北地区的气流下沉和水汽输送的减少,直接造成了华北降水的减少,这很好地解释了此典型区域夏季降水与中纬度亚洲季风区呈现相反变化的原因。而且此物理机制的适用范围可以扩展到过去2000年。进一步对此区域夏季主要降水事件的气团追踪也证明了当出现大的降水事件时,气团的输送路径有一些是来自于阿拉伯海。
The mid-latitude Asian continent can be roughly divided into two distinct climatic regions:the humid eastern-southern part of Asia mainly influenced by monsoon circulation and the inland arid/semiarid part of western Asia dominated by the mid-latitude westerlies. Anti-phase/out-of-phase relationship in precipitation (moisture) changes between the inland arid Asia and eastern-southern part of Asia exists on centennial to millennial timescale during the Holocene. It is thus proposed that there is a 'westerlies-dominated climate regime'in mid-latitude Asia during the modern interglacial period. However, it is not clear that such spatiotemporal precipitation/moisture variations also exist on interannual to decadal time scales. The inland arid Asia is one of the largest arid regions at the middle latitudes. The climate changes in this region are closely linked to the change of atmospheric circulations/sea surface temperature (SST). For example, the precipitation variations in this region are strongly influenced by the westerly circulation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The temperature also increased rapidly during the past century in the context of global warming. These results cause increasing evaporation to and decreasing soil moisture, which in term significantly affects the change of regional hydrological cycle. Therefore, understanding the variations of precipitation on interannual to decadal scales in mid-latitude Asia is of paramount importance for the regional agriculture and economy. This study analyzed the 'westerlies-dominated climate regime'in mid-latitude Asia on interannual to decadal scales and their physical processes using instrumental and reanalysis datasets.
Based on 'westerlies-dominated climate regime', this study firstly used the surface wind fields, and the boundary of the summer monsoon and arid regions to define the'modern westerly circulation dominated region', which contains Xinjiang, Hexi Corridor in China and the arid Central Asia (ACA). Additionally, based on the monthly precipitation dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and monthly geopotential height, winds and specific humidity on pressure levels from the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis, the climatic features associated with the 'modern westerly circulation dominated region'were identified. Those features include1) The precipitation variations are influenced by westerly circulation year round;2) The shifts of surface wind from winter to summer are distinctly different from that in the monsoon dominated middle latitude Eastern Asia;3) The precipitation variations in the area also differ regionally.
This study further analyzed the temporal precipitation variations in the ACA and their regional differences during the past80years using monthly gridded precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). Our results showed that the annual precipitation in this westerly circulation dominated arid region is generally increasing during the past80years, with an apparent increasing trend in winter. The precipitation variations in ACA also differ regionally, which can be divided into five distinct subregions:I-West Kazakhstan region, II-East Kazakhstan region, Ⅲ-Central Asia Plains region, Ⅳ-Kyrgyzstan region, and Ⅴ-Iran Plateau region. The annual precipitation falls fairly even on all seasons in the subregions I and II, whereas the annual precipitation is falling mainly on winter and spring in the subregions Ⅲ, IV and Ⅴ. The annual precipitation is increasing on all subregions except the subregion V. The long-term trends in annual precipitation in all subregions are determined mainly by trends in winter precipitation. The increasing precipitation in 'modern westerly circulation dominated region'is opposite to that of the summer monsoon dominated regions in China, suggesting that the 'westerly-dominant climate regime' also existed on decadal scales.
The precipitation in 'modern westerly circulation dominated region' has significant interannual variations, especially Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO), which is linked to the variations of westerly circulation in the middle troposphere. This study analyzed the spatial differences of the precipitation variations in the mid-latitude Asia and their possible physical mechanisms during1960-2009. The annual precipitation showed an opposite variation between the 'modern westerly circulation dominated region' and summer monsoon dominated regions, suggesting that the 'westerly-dominant climate regime' also existed on interannual scales. Given the different contributions of seasonal precipitation to annual total precipitation in both regions, the atmospheric circulation anomalies during the major precipitation seasons were analyzed. In winter, negative North Atlantic Oscillation may cause negative height anomalies over the north side and positive anomalies over the south side of the 'modem westerly circulation dominated region'. Together, the enhanced pressure gradient and anomalous westerly wind brings more water vapor to the region, and leaves less precipitation in summer monsoon dominated regions. In summer, the low-pressure anomalies in Northeast China, along with a weaker summer monsoon and negative height anomalies in Eastern Europe together contribute to reduced (excessive) summer precipitation in summer monsoon dominated regions ('modern westerly circulation dominated arid region'). The interactions between ENSO and NAO may result in the opposite precipitation variations between the two regions.
The Taklimakan and the adjacent Gobi Desert (TD in short) in northwestern China is the most arid region in the modern westerly circulation dominated region, where water is scarce year round. As the typical case, this study investigated the variations of summer precipitation in TD and their association with water vapor flux and atmospheric circulation using the monthly precipitation dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and monthly geopotential height, winds and specific humidity on pressure levels from the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) and the new NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Though the long-term mean water vapor mostly comes from the west, the variations of summer precipitation in TD are dominated by the water vapor flux from the south, which originates from the Arabian Sea. The anomalous water vapor fluxes are closely associated with the meridional teleconnection pattern around50(?)-80(?) and the zonal teleconnection pattern along the Asian westerly jet in summer. The meridional teleconnection connects the Central Asia and the tropical Indian Ocean; and the zonal teleconnection resembles the'Silk Road pattern'. The two teleconnections lead to negative height anomalies in the Central Asia and the positive height anomalies in the Arabian Sea/India and North Central China. The anomalous pressure gradient force, caused by those height anomalies, leads to anomalous ascending motion in TD and brings more water vapor from the Arabian Sea passing over the Tibetan Plateau to influence the precipitation development in the study region. These mechanisms can well explain the out-of-phase relationship between the TD precipitation and the Indian summer monsoon in the instrumental period and the past2000years. Furthermore, this study analyzed the air mass back trajectory track of heavy precipitation events, suggesting that the water vapor fluxes influencing TD mostly come from the Arabian Sea.
引文
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