近四十年中国东部春末气候年代际变化的观测分析和数值模拟
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摘要
中国春季气候在20世纪70年代末呈现出显著的年代际变化,但是相对于冬、夏季节而言,其特征和成因尚未得到充分研究。本文利用1958–2000年中国560台站观测的降水、总云量和地表气温资料以及ERA-40再分析环流资料,分析了中国东部春末气候年代际变化的主要特征及其环流原因,并利用数值试验加以验证。还利用青藏高原的积雪深度观测资料,探讨了冬季北大西洋涛动(NAO)通过影响青藏高原积雪,进而改变随后春末东亚对流层温度度的的可能机制。
利用候平均降水资料分析了3–5月中国东部降水的年代际变化特征,发现春末(4月下旬–5月中旬)东南地区(26?–31?N,110?–122?E)降水在1978年以来显著减少,1980–2000年的平均降水量比1958–1977年平均值减少达1.8mm/day。这种现象与中国中部(30?–40?N,90?–125?E)对流层中上层温度的年代际变冷(平均温度减少约1?C)存在密切联系。上层冷异常使得对流层风场变化在变冷区东南部呈现出一个异常经圈环流,其下沉支位于中国东部26?–35?N,低层异常偏北风出现在中国东南部(22?–30?N,110?–125?E)。这样的风场变化不利于我国东南地区降水的产生,同时还使得我国中东部地区总云量减少、江淮流域地表气温升高。
利用旬平均资料进行的分析表明,中国东部对流层中上层年代际变冷及其相应的异常风场和地面气候要素的年代际变化,在4月中旬至5月中旬呈现出逐渐南移的特征。这可能与对流层中上层变冷与干旱之间的正反馈有关:上层冷异常所伴随的异常风场,使得干旱出现在上层变冷区的南侧,导致该地区的潜热通量减少,即上层冷中心以南区域进一步变冷,从而有利于上层变冷的持续存在和南移。
进一步考察春末东亚对流层中上层年代际变冷的原因,发现前冬季(JFM)NAO指数的年代际增强可能起重要作用。冬季NAO指数的年代际增强,能够通过增强亚洲副热带西风急流,使得高原上空的西风增强;同时在高原大地形的阻挡作用下,气流向南弯折,加深了印缅槽。二者通过增强水汽输送加强了高原上空的水汽通量辐合,导致青藏高原积雪深度增加。由于冬季青藏高原积雪深度与春末东亚对流层中上层温度存在显著的负相关关系,所以冬季青藏高原积雪深度的年代际增加,可能是联系冬季NAO指数年代际增强和随后春末东亚对流层中上层变冷的重要纽带。
利用法国动力气象实验室(LMD)发展的大气环流模式LMDZ4,通过其局部放大(zoom)功能,在东亚地区进行网格加密,在加密区之外由ERA-40再分析资料进行环流强迫,对1958–2000年每年春季进行数值模拟。模拟结果不仅能够再现春末东亚大气环流的年代际变化,即对流层中上层变冷和相应的异常经圈环流,而且模拟出了中国东南地区年代际干旱,以及中东部地区总云量减少和江淮流域地表气温升高的特征。从而验证了春末对流层中上层变冷和相应的异常经圈环流,是引起中国东部地区地面气候年代际变化的主要环流原因。
为了进一步明确对流层中上层变冷所起的所用,通过敏感性试验,将模拟出的中国中部对流层中上层变冷信号施加到模式大气中。发现上层冷异常的存在,使大气环流出现了与观测中年代际变化信号一致的异常特征,即在变冷区东南侧产生了一个异常经圈环流,同时也使得中国东南部降水减少、中东部总云量减少和江淮流域地表气温升高,从而验证了上层冷异常能够通过对大气环流的调整影响地面气候的变化。通过对模拟结果中上层变冷的原因分析表明,潜热加热对春末期间的变冷起重要作用。这也在敏感性试验中得到了验证,在有潜热加热项时,所模拟的上层变冷信号明显比无潜热加热项时偏强。通过敏感性试验得到的上述模拟结果,对于理解过去四十年春末东亚对流层中上层年代际变冷对中国东部气候变化的影响,以及上层冷异常的持续存在具有一定定的的启示意意义义。
East China climate in spring has experienced significant decadal changein the late 1970s, which has received less attention than that in winter andsummer. This study aims to investigate the decadal change of East Chinaclimate in late spring, and discuss its cause in relation to the atmospheric cir-culation change, using the observational data of 560 meteorological stationsin China and the ERA-40 reanalysis data during 1958–2000. Numerical ex-periments are further carried out to validate the observational result. Thisstudy also explores the possible mechanism for the impact of winter NAO onthe tropospheric temperature in East Asia, which is proposed to be related tothe Tibetan Plateau (TP) snowfall.
Analysis with pentad-mean precipitation data shows that late spring(April 21–May 20) rainfall over southeastern China (26?–31?N, 110?–122?E)has undergone a significant decrease since about 1978. Mean rainfall during1980–2000 is 1.8mm/day less than that during 1958–1977. Such change of therainfall is closely related to the decadal cooling in the upper troposphere overcentral China (30?–40?N, 90?–125?E) with the mean temperature in the lattertwo decades lower about 1?C than in the former two decades. The upper-level cooling is associated with an anomalous meridional cell with descendingmotions in the latitudes 26?–35?N and low-level northerly winds over south-ern China (22?–30?N, 110?–125?E), causing deficient rainfall over southeasternChina. Such circulation changes are also main factors for the decadal decreaseof the total cloud amount over central East China and the decadal increase ofthe surface air temperature in the Jianghuai basin.
The decadal cooling in the middle-upper troposphere, the associatedmeridional cell and the decadal change of the surface climate in East China,all move southward from mid-April to mid-May. This may be caused by the pos-itive feedback between the upper-level cooling and the drought. Due to thewind anomalies associated with the upper-level cooling, the drought occurs tothe south of the cooling center. In the drought region, the latent heat ?uxis reduced, which in turn cools the tropospheric atmosphere. Such feedbackprocess can partly explain the persistence and southward movement of theupper-level cooling signal.
The cause of the upper-level cooling in late spring over East Asia is fur-ther explored, which is found to be correlated with the enhanced winter NAOindex in the preceding winter. During winters with a positive NAO index, theAsian subtropical westerly jet is intensified, which strengthens the westerlyover the TP, and also deepens India-Burma trough because of the de?ectionof the TP. Both processes enhance the water vapor transport, and thus induceconvergence of water vapor ?ux over the TP. As a result, there is deeper snowover the TP. On the other hand, winter snow depth over the TP is negativelycorrelated with late spring tropospheric temperature in East Asia. So it issuggested that the decadal increase of winter snow depth over the TP is animportant factor linking the strengthened winter NAO index and the subse-quent late spring cooling in the middle-upper troposphere over East Asia afterthe late 1970s.
The general circulation model LMDZ4 is used in this study, which is de-veloped at the Laboratoire de M′et′eorologie Dynamique (LMD). The modelis zoomed over East Asia with the atmospheric circulation outside the zoomdomain nudged by the ERA-40 reanalysis data. Numerical simulations arecarried out from March 1 to May 31 in each year of 1958–2000. Results showthat the model not only reproduces the decadal change of the atmosphericcirculation over East Asia, including the upper-level cooling and the anoma-lous meridional cell, but also captures the decadal drought over southeasternChina, the decadal decrease of the total cloud amount in central East China and the decadal increase of the surface air temperature in the JiangHuai basin.This proves that the upper-level cooling and the anomalous meridional cell arethe main atmospheric circulation factors for the decadal change of East Asiaclimate in late spring.
To quantify the role of the upper-level cooling, sensitivity experimentis carried out with the simulated cooling signal imposed in the model. Inresponse to the prescribed upper-level cooling, the anomalies of late spring at-mospheric circulation bear remarkable resemblance with the decadal-changesignals in the observation, which show an anomalous meridonal cell in thesoutheast ?ank of the cooling region. The drought over southeastern China,the decrease of the total cloud amount in central East China and the increaseof the surface air temperature in the JiangHuai basin are also reproduced inthe simulation. This proves that the upper-level cooling can in?uence the sur-face climate through modulating the atmospheric circulation. The simulatedresults show that the latent heating is a main factor for the upper-level coolingin late spring. This is validated in another sensitivity experiment. When thelatent heating term is halted, the simulated cooling signal is weaker than theoriginal one. The above results from the sensitivity experiments help us tounderstand the impact of the decadal middle-upper tropospheric cooling onEast China climate change in the last four decades, as well as the persistenceof the cooling anomaly in late spring.
利用候平均降水资料分析了3–5月中国东部降水的年代际变化特征,发现春末(4月下旬–5月中旬)东南地区(26?–31?N,110?–122?E)降水在1978年以来显著减少,1980–2000年的平均降水量比1958–1977年平均值减少达1.8mm/day。这种现象与中国中部(30?–40?N,90?–125?E)对流层中上层温度的年代际变冷(平均温度减少约1?C)存在密切联系。上层冷异常使得对流层风场变化在变冷区东南部呈现出一个异常经圈环流,其下沉支位于中国东部26?–35?N,低层异常偏北风出现在中国东南部(22?–30?N,110?–125?E)。这样的风场变化不利于我国东南地区降水的产生,同时还使得我国中东部地区总云量减少、江淮流域地表气温升高。
利用旬平均资料进行的分析表明,中国东部对流层中上层年代际变冷及其相应的异常风场和地面气候要素的年代际变化,在4月中旬至5月中旬呈现出逐渐南移的特征。这可能与对流层中上层变冷与干旱之间的正反馈有关:上层冷异常所伴随的异常风场,使得干旱出现在上层变冷区的南侧,导致该地区的潜热通量减少,即上层冷中心以南区域进一步变冷,从而有利于上层变冷的持续存在和南移。
进一步考察春末东亚对流层中上层年代际变冷的原因,发现前冬季(JFM)NAO指数的年代际增强可能起重要作用。冬季NAO指数的年代际增强,能够通过增强亚洲副热带西风急流,使得高原上空的西风增强;同时在高原大地形的阻挡作用下,气流向南弯折,加深了印缅槽。二者通过增强水汽输送加强了高原上空的水汽通量辐合,导致青藏高原积雪深度增加。由于冬季青藏高原积雪深度与春末东亚对流层中上层温度存在显著的负相关关系,所以冬季青藏高原积雪深度的年代际增加,可能是联系冬季NAO指数年代际增强和随后春末东亚对流层中上层变冷的重要纽带。
利用法国动力气象实验室(LMD)发展的大气环流模式LMDZ4,通过其局部放大(zoom)功能,在东亚地区进行网格加密,在加密区之外由ERA-40再分析资料进行环流强迫,对1958–2000年每年春季进行数值模拟。模拟结果不仅能够再现春末东亚大气环流的年代际变化,即对流层中上层变冷和相应的异常经圈环流,而且模拟出了中国东南地区年代际干旱,以及中东部地区总云量减少和江淮流域地表气温升高的特征。从而验证了春末对流层中上层变冷和相应的异常经圈环流,是引起中国东部地区地面气候年代际变化的主要环流原因。
为了进一步明确对流层中上层变冷所起的所用,通过敏感性试验,将模拟出的中国中部对流层中上层变冷信号施加到模式大气中。发现上层冷异常的存在,使大气环流出现了与观测中年代际变化信号一致的异常特征,即在变冷区东南侧产生了一个异常经圈环流,同时也使得中国东南部降水减少、中东部总云量减少和江淮流域地表气温升高,从而验证了上层冷异常能够通过对大气环流的调整影响地面气候的变化。通过对模拟结果中上层变冷的原因分析表明,潜热加热对春末期间的变冷起重要作用。这也在敏感性试验中得到了验证,在有潜热加热项时,所模拟的上层变冷信号明显比无潜热加热项时偏强。通过敏感性试验得到的上述模拟结果,对于理解过去四十年春末东亚对流层中上层年代际变冷对中国东部气候变化的影响,以及上层冷异常的持续存在具有一定定的的启示意意义义。
East China climate in spring has experienced significant decadal changein the late 1970s, which has received less attention than that in winter andsummer. This study aims to investigate the decadal change of East Chinaclimate in late spring, and discuss its cause in relation to the atmospheric cir-culation change, using the observational data of 560 meteorological stationsin China and the ERA-40 reanalysis data during 1958–2000. Numerical ex-periments are further carried out to validate the observational result. Thisstudy also explores the possible mechanism for the impact of winter NAO onthe tropospheric temperature in East Asia, which is proposed to be related tothe Tibetan Plateau (TP) snowfall.
Analysis with pentad-mean precipitation data shows that late spring(April 21–May 20) rainfall over southeastern China (26?–31?N, 110?–122?E)has undergone a significant decrease since about 1978. Mean rainfall during1980–2000 is 1.8mm/day less than that during 1958–1977. Such change of therainfall is closely related to the decadal cooling in the upper troposphere overcentral China (30?–40?N, 90?–125?E) with the mean temperature in the lattertwo decades lower about 1?C than in the former two decades. The upper-level cooling is associated with an anomalous meridional cell with descendingmotions in the latitudes 26?–35?N and low-level northerly winds over south-ern China (22?–30?N, 110?–125?E), causing deficient rainfall over southeasternChina. Such circulation changes are also main factors for the decadal decreaseof the total cloud amount over central East China and the decadal increase ofthe surface air temperature in the Jianghuai basin.
The decadal cooling in the middle-upper troposphere, the associatedmeridional cell and the decadal change of the surface climate in East China,all move southward from mid-April to mid-May. This may be caused by the pos-itive feedback between the upper-level cooling and the drought. Due to thewind anomalies associated with the upper-level cooling, the drought occurs tothe south of the cooling center. In the drought region, the latent heat ?uxis reduced, which in turn cools the tropospheric atmosphere. Such feedbackprocess can partly explain the persistence and southward movement of theupper-level cooling signal.
The cause of the upper-level cooling in late spring over East Asia is fur-ther explored, which is found to be correlated with the enhanced winter NAOindex in the preceding winter. During winters with a positive NAO index, theAsian subtropical westerly jet is intensified, which strengthens the westerlyover the TP, and also deepens India-Burma trough because of the de?ectionof the TP. Both processes enhance the water vapor transport, and thus induceconvergence of water vapor ?ux over the TP. As a result, there is deeper snowover the TP. On the other hand, winter snow depth over the TP is negativelycorrelated with late spring tropospheric temperature in East Asia. So it issuggested that the decadal increase of winter snow depth over the TP is animportant factor linking the strengthened winter NAO index and the subse-quent late spring cooling in the middle-upper troposphere over East Asia afterthe late 1970s.
The general circulation model LMDZ4 is used in this study, which is de-veloped at the Laboratoire de M′et′eorologie Dynamique (LMD). The modelis zoomed over East Asia with the atmospheric circulation outside the zoomdomain nudged by the ERA-40 reanalysis data. Numerical simulations arecarried out from March 1 to May 31 in each year of 1958–2000. Results showthat the model not only reproduces the decadal change of the atmosphericcirculation over East Asia, including the upper-level cooling and the anoma-lous meridional cell, but also captures the decadal drought over southeasternChina, the decadal decrease of the total cloud amount in central East China and the decadal increase of the surface air temperature in the JiangHuai basin.This proves that the upper-level cooling and the anomalous meridional cell arethe main atmospheric circulation factors for the decadal change of East Asiaclimate in late spring.
To quantify the role of the upper-level cooling, sensitivity experimentis carried out with the simulated cooling signal imposed in the model. Inresponse to the prescribed upper-level cooling, the anomalies of late spring at-mospheric circulation bear remarkable resemblance with the decadal-changesignals in the observation, which show an anomalous meridonal cell in thesoutheast ?ank of the cooling region. The drought over southeastern China,the decrease of the total cloud amount in central East China and the increaseof the surface air temperature in the JiangHuai basin are also reproduced inthe simulation. This proves that the upper-level cooling can in?uence the sur-face climate through modulating the atmospheric circulation. The simulatedresults show that the latent heating is a main factor for the upper-level coolingin late spring. This is validated in another sensitivity experiment. When thelatent heating term is halted, the simulated cooling signal is weaker than theoriginal one. The above results from the sensitivity experiments help us tounderstand the impact of the decadal middle-upper tropospheric cooling onEast China climate change in the last four decades, as well as the persistenceof the cooling anomaly in late spring.
引文
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