项目投资的风险分析与风险决策
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摘要
由于商品经济的高度发展，社会化大生产带来了社会分工的细化，使得生产链延长，生产过程某一环节的变化常常引起强烈的经济震荡。新技术革命的不断推进，产品快速的更新换代，社会需求结构急剧变化，使得社会经济环境变得日趋复杂，经济生活中的不确定因素与日俱增。在企业的投资过程中，存在着大量的风险因素，企业的投资活动因而成为一项高风险活动。企业的投资决策决大多数是风险决策，而风险决策过程又表现为决策者对机会与危险的权衡过程。企业决策者是否具有正确的风险态度、以及是否具有处理风险的能力与技巧，是决定项目投资成败的关键。而我国许多企业决策者对风险缺乏认识，无视风险、回避风险的情况普遍存在，因而屡屡导致投资决策失误，或者给企业带来风险损失，或者给企业带来机会损失。因此，对项目投资风险问题进行研究十分必要。本课题采用理论联系实际的研究方法，将所学到的知识运用于我公司的“开发60万套新品全钢丝载重子午线轮胎”项目的管理。本文结合该项目的实际对项目投资风险问题进行了一些探讨。
投资是投资主体为了获取效益而投入资金用以转化为实物资产或金融资产的行为和过程。投资决策是决策理论在投资领域的具体运用，是投资主体为了实现效益目标，运用决策的原理与方法，系统分析主客观条件，从可采取的多个投资方案中选取最佳(或最满意)方案的整个过程。风险是指由于客观事物的不确定性和人类认识与处理事物的能力的有限性而导致发生损失的事件的可能性。一个投资项目开始实施以后，由于投资的周期比较长，投入资金较多，一般要若干年才能收回，在此期间由于许多不确定因素的影响，会使得投资决策的预期效果发生变化，投资项目的实施结果不一定符合人们原来所作的预测与估计，从而给投资项目带来一定的风险。这要求我们在进行项目投资决策前，对投资项目的风险因素作出定性的估计以及对投资项目的总体风险作出定量的测度，以使决策者对项目投资的风险结构和风险程度有一个较为科学的把握。项目投资决策大多属于风险决策。风险决策是在多种不定因素作用下，对2个以上的行动方案进行选择，由于有不确定因素存在，因而行动方案的实施结果其损益值是不能预先确定的。风险决策可分为两类：概率型决策与不定型决策。
With the fast development of merchandize economy and social subdivision caused by mass production, production chain has been prolonged, thus a small change in the process of production may cause intensive economic shock. The boosting of new technological revolution, frequent improvement of new products and rapid change of social demand structure make our social economic environment more complicated, and more uncertainty factors in economic activities. A lot of high risk factors exist in the process of enterprise investment, and the investment activities of enterprise are usually risky. The business investment involves mainly risk decision-making, and the process of decision-making is the process of the comparison between opportunities and risks by decision-maker. Whether decision-makers have a right risk attitude, capability and skills of dealing with risks is critical to the investment success. However, in our country many enterprise decision-makers are lack of knowledge in investment risks and they ignore
those risks and pay little attention to this problem, investment decision-making mistakes happen frequently. Those mistakes bring losses of risk and opportunity to our businesses. Therefore, it is necessary to study investment risk of our businesses. This article adopt the method of combining theory and practice, that is, use the theories of several books I have learned ("Enterprise Finance" " Technology Economics", "Economics" etc.) and the real situation of my company project, " build 600,000 sets of new all-steel weight radial tires ", to discuss project investment risk issues.
Investment is the action and process that investor put capital in certain areas and receive entity capital or finance capital income for making profits. Investment decision-making is the specific usage of decision-making theory. To achieve the goal of efficiency, investor use decision-making principles and methods to analyze objective and subjective conditions systematically, and choose the best solution from those available. Risk is the possibility of losses caused by uncertainty of subjective events and the limitation of human in realizing and dealing with those events. As for an investment project, its investment cycle is usually long, the invested capital is huge, and it takes years to profit from the investment. During this period, many uncertain factors may influence the predicted effect of the investment decision, and bring risk to the invested project. This require us to make correct prediction of the risk factors before any investment decision-making and take measures to those general predicted
risks. The decision-makers should have scientific knowledge of risk structure and its degree. Project investment decisions are mostly risk decisions. Risk decision-making is the choice between two or more solutions under the circumstance of many uncertain factors. Since uncertain factors exist, the profit loss in the process of action is unforeseeable. Risk decision-making can be divided into two types: Probability decision-making and uncertainty decision-making.
投资是投资主体为了获取效益而投入资金用以转化为实物资产或金融资产的行为和过程。投资决策是决策理论在投资领域的具体运用，是投资主体为了实现效益目标，运用决策的原理与方法，系统分析主客观条件，从可采取的多个投资方案中选取最佳(或最满意)方案的整个过程。风险是指由于客观事物的不确定性和人类认识与处理事物的能力的有限性而导致发生损失的事件的可能性。一个投资项目开始实施以后，由于投资的周期比较长，投入资金较多，一般要若干年才能收回，在此期间由于许多不确定因素的影响，会使得投资决策的预期效果发生变化，投资项目的实施结果不一定符合人们原来所作的预测与估计，从而给投资项目带来一定的风险。这要求我们在进行项目投资决策前，对投资项目的风险因素作出定性的估计以及对投资项目的总体风险作出定量的测度，以使决策者对项目投资的风险结构和风险程度有一个较为科学的把握。项目投资决策大多属于风险决策。风险决策是在多种不定因素作用下，对2个以上的行动方案进行选择，由于有不确定因素存在，因而行动方案的实施结果其损益值是不能预先确定的。风险决策可分为两类：概率型决策与不定型决策。
With the fast development of merchandize economy and social subdivision caused by mass production, production chain has been prolonged, thus a small change in the process of production may cause intensive economic shock. The boosting of new technological revolution, frequent improvement of new products and rapid change of social demand structure make our social economic environment more complicated, and more uncertainty factors in economic activities. A lot of high risk factors exist in the process of enterprise investment, and the investment activities of enterprise are usually risky. The business investment involves mainly risk decision-making, and the process of decision-making is the process of the comparison between opportunities and risks by decision-maker. Whether decision-makers have a right risk attitude, capability and skills of dealing with risks is critical to the investment success. However, in our country many enterprise decision-makers are lack of knowledge in investment risks and they ignore
those risks and pay little attention to this problem, investment decision-making mistakes happen frequently. Those mistakes bring losses of risk and opportunity to our businesses. Therefore, it is necessary to study investment risk of our businesses. This article adopt the method of combining theory and practice, that is, use the theories of several books I have learned ("Enterprise Finance" " Technology Economics", "Economics" etc.) and the real situation of my company project, " build 600,000 sets of new all-steel weight radial tires ", to discuss project investment risk issues.
Investment is the action and process that investor put capital in certain areas and receive entity capital or finance capital income for making profits. Investment decision-making is the specific usage of decision-making theory. To achieve the goal of efficiency, investor use decision-making principles and methods to analyze objective and subjective conditions systematically, and choose the best solution from those available. Risk is the possibility of losses caused by uncertainty of subjective events and the limitation of human in realizing and dealing with those events. As for an investment project, its investment cycle is usually long, the invested capital is huge, and it takes years to profit from the investment. During this period, many uncertain factors may influence the predicted effect of the investment decision, and bring risk to the invested project. This require us to make correct prediction of the risk factors before any investment decision-making and take measures to those general predicted
risks. The decision-makers should have scientific knowledge of risk structure and its degree. Project investment decisions are mostly risk decisions. Risk decision-making is the choice between two or more solutions under the circumstance of many uncertain factors. Since uncertain factors exist, the profit loss in the process of action is unforeseeable. Risk decision-making can be divided into two types: Probability decision-making and uncertainty decision-making.
引文
(1) C. Arthur Williams, Jr., Richard M. Heins. 《Risk Management and Insurance》. McGraw—Hill Book Company, 1985.
(2) George L. Head, Stephen Horn. 《Essentials of Risk Management》. Insurance Institute of America, 1994.
(3) Robert V. Hogg, Stuart A. Klugman.《Loss Distributions》. John Wiley & Sons.Inc, 1986.
(4) Newton L.Bowers, Jr., Hans U. Gerber, James C. Hickman, Donald A. Jones, Cecil J. Nesbitt. 《Actuarial Mathematics》. The Society of Actuaries, 1986.
(5) C. D. Daykin, T. Pentikainen, M. Pesonen. 《Practical Risk Theory for Actuaries》. Chapman &.Hall, 1994.
(6) Haim Levy. 《Introduction to Investment》. South-Western College Publishing House, 1996.
(7) John A. white, Marvin H. Agee and Kenneth E. case. 《Principles of Engineering,Economic Analysis》. John Wiley & Sons.Inc, 1989.
(8) Ian R. C. Hirst. 《Business Investment Decisions》. Philip Allan publishers Limited ,1988.
(9) J. C. Hull, M. A., Ph.D. 《The Evaluation of Risk in Business Investment》. Pergamon Press Ltd., 1980.
(10) Lumby, S. 《Investment Appraisal and Financial Decisions》. International Thomson Business Press (London), 1997.
(11) Sangsler. A. "capital Investment Appraisal Techniques: A survey of Current usage". Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 20(3):307-32, 1993.
(12) James R. Me Guigan, R. Charles Moyer & Fredericle H. deB. Harris. 《Managerial Economics: Applications, Strategy, and Tactics》. China Machine Press, 2000.
(13) Brian A. Eales. 《Financial Risk Management》.Cambridge University Press, 1995.
(14) Felix H. Kloman.《Risk Management Reports》.Seawrack Press ,1996.
(15) Kent D. miller. "A Framework for Integrated Risk Management in International Business" Journal of International business Studies, second quarter 1992.
(16) Arrow, Kenneth. 《Essays in the theory of Risk Bearing》 . North Holland, 1971.
(17) 谢科范编著．《新产品开发风险管理》．电子科技大学出版社，1993．
(18) 黎谷主编．《企业筹资与投资》．中国人民大学出版社，1997．
(19) 程兴华编著．《现代企业投资决策管理》．立信会计出版社，1997．
(20) 万君康编著．《技术经济学》，华中理工大学出版社，1996．
(21) 傅家骥，仝允桓主编．《工业技术经济学》，清华大学出版社，1997．
(22) 卢石泉，周惠珍主编．《投资项目评估》，东北财经大学出版社，1997．
(23) 芮明杰主编．《投资项目经济评估》，复旦大学出版社，1997．
(24) 瘳力平编著．《企业经济决策》．中山大学出版社，1997．
(25) 菲尔八荷马斯著，王嗣俊，白玉明译．《投资评价》，机械工业出版社，1999．
(26) 武春友，张米尔编著．《技术经济学》．大连理工大学出版社，1998．
(27) 郑丰聪．《工程经济》．国鄣出版社(台湾)，1993．
(28) 姜楠．《资产评估基础教程》．东北财经大学出版社，1992．
(29) 阿斯瓦斯·达摩达兰著，郑振龙译．《应用公司理财》．机械工业出版社，2000．
(30) 马海清，朱光林编著．《决策会计学》．经济管理出版社，1997．
(31) 贺仲雄，王伟著．《决策科学》．重庆出版社，1988．
(32) 张纪康主编．《企业经营风险管理》．立信会计出版社，1998．
(33) 国家计委，建设部．《建设项目经济评价方法与参数》．中国计划出版社，1996．
(34) 杨海明．《投资学》．上海人民出版社，1998．
(35) 建设部标准定额研究所．《工业可行性研究编制手》．化学工业出版社，1992．
(36) 李敏新著．《工业投资项目评价与决策》．中国计划出版社，1995．
(37) 周惠珍主编．《投资项目评估案例分析》．中国计划出版社，1995．
(38) 王国玉主编．《投资项目评估学》．武汉大学出版社，1999．
(39) 马骁主编．《企业投资决策与管理》．西南财经大学出版社，2000．
(40) 黄磊，刘兴方编著．《公司资本投资决策》．上海财经大学出版社，1997．
(41) 王超主编．《项目决策与管理》．中国对外经资出版社，1999．
(42) 金德环等编．《投资经济学》．复旦大学主版社，1992．
(43) 高志前著．《高新技术产业风险投资》．经济科学出版社，1996．
(44) 宋明哲．《风险管理》．(台湾)中华企业管理发展中心，1984．
(45) 陈仕亮．《风险管理》．西南财经大学出版社，1994．
(2) George L. Head, Stephen Horn. 《Essentials of Risk Management》. Insurance Institute of America, 1994.
(3) Robert V. Hogg, Stuart A. Klugman.《Loss Distributions》. John Wiley & Sons.Inc, 1986.
(4) Newton L.Bowers, Jr., Hans U. Gerber, James C. Hickman, Donald A. Jones, Cecil J. Nesbitt. 《Actuarial Mathematics》. The Society of Actuaries, 1986.
(5) C. D. Daykin, T. Pentikainen, M. Pesonen. 《Practical Risk Theory for Actuaries》. Chapman &.Hall, 1994.
(6) Haim Levy. 《Introduction to Investment》. South-Western College Publishing House, 1996.
(7) John A. white, Marvin H. Agee and Kenneth E. case. 《Principles of Engineering,Economic Analysis》. John Wiley & Sons.Inc, 1989.
(8) Ian R. C. Hirst. 《Business Investment Decisions》. Philip Allan publishers Limited ,1988.
(9) J. C. Hull, M. A., Ph.D. 《The Evaluation of Risk in Business Investment》. Pergamon Press Ltd., 1980.
(10) Lumby, S. 《Investment Appraisal and Financial Decisions》. International Thomson Business Press (London), 1997.
(11) Sangsler. A. "capital Investment Appraisal Techniques: A survey of Current usage". Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 20(3):307-32, 1993.
(12) James R. Me Guigan, R. Charles Moyer & Fredericle H. deB. Harris. 《Managerial Economics: Applications, Strategy, and Tactics》. China Machine Press, 2000.
(13) Brian A. Eales. 《Financial Risk Management》.Cambridge University Press, 1995.
(14) Felix H. Kloman.《Risk Management Reports》.Seawrack Press ,1996.
(15) Kent D. miller. "A Framework for Integrated Risk Management in International Business" Journal of International business Studies, second quarter 1992.
(16) Arrow, Kenneth. 《Essays in the theory of Risk Bearing》 . North Holland, 1971.
(17) 谢科范编著．《新产品开发风险管理》．电子科技大学出版社，1993．
(18) 黎谷主编．《企业筹资与投资》．中国人民大学出版社，1997．
(19) 程兴华编著．《现代企业投资决策管理》．立信会计出版社，1997．
(20) 万君康编著．《技术经济学》，华中理工大学出版社，1996．
(21) 傅家骥，仝允桓主编．《工业技术经济学》，清华大学出版社，1997．
(22) 卢石泉，周惠珍主编．《投资项目评估》，东北财经大学出版社，1997．
(23) 芮明杰主编．《投资项目经济评估》，复旦大学出版社，1997．
(24) 瘳力平编著．《企业经济决策》．中山大学出版社，1997．
(25) 菲尔八荷马斯著，王嗣俊，白玉明译．《投资评价》，机械工业出版社，1999．
(26) 武春友，张米尔编著．《技术经济学》．大连理工大学出版社，1998．
(27) 郑丰聪．《工程经济》．国鄣出版社(台湾)，1993．
(28) 姜楠．《资产评估基础教程》．东北财经大学出版社，1992．
(29) 阿斯瓦斯·达摩达兰著，郑振龙译．《应用公司理财》．机械工业出版社，2000．
(30) 马海清，朱光林编著．《决策会计学》．经济管理出版社，1997．
(31) 贺仲雄，王伟著．《决策科学》．重庆出版社，1988．
(32) 张纪康主编．《企业经营风险管理》．立信会计出版社，1998．
(33) 国家计委，建设部．《建设项目经济评价方法与参数》．中国计划出版社，1996．
(34) 杨海明．《投资学》．上海人民出版社，1998．
(35) 建设部标准定额研究所．《工业可行性研究编制手》．化学工业出版社，1992．
(36) 李敏新著．《工业投资项目评价与决策》．中国计划出版社，1995．
(37) 周惠珍主编．《投资项目评估案例分析》．中国计划出版社，1995．
(38) 王国玉主编．《投资项目评估学》．武汉大学出版社，1999．
(39) 马骁主编．《企业投资决策与管理》．西南财经大学出版社，2000．
(40) 黄磊，刘兴方编著．《公司资本投资决策》．上海财经大学出版社，1997．
(41) 王超主编．《项目决策与管理》．中国对外经资出版社，1999．
(42) 金德环等编．《投资经济学》．复旦大学主版社，1992．
(43) 高志前著．《高新技术产业风险投资》．经济科学出版社，1996．
(44) 宋明哲．《风险管理》．(台湾)中华企业管理发展中心，1984．
(45) 陈仕亮．《风险管理》．西南财经大学出版社，1994．