城市物流系统规划研究
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摘要
随着物流在社会中地位的提高和我国城市化进程的推进,我国许多城市逐渐认识到现代物流系统对推动城市经济发展和提高城市竞争力的重要作用,纷纷着手进行城市物流系统的规划和建设。城市物流定义的提出还不超过10年时间,国内外关于城市物流规划的研究还很不足,理论严重滞后于实践。在这种形势下,研究城市物流系统规划不仅具有重大的战略意义,而且也是一项十分迫切的现实任务。本文的论题正是在此背景下提出的,目的是通过对城市物流系统规划的研究,提高我国城市物流系统规划和建设的科学性和合理性。本文的主要研究内容如下:
1.概述城市物流的概念和特点,结合城市物流发展的趋势和当前我国城市物流发展实际,提出了新的城市物流的定义。描述了城市物流系统的概念和结构,系统总结了国内外城市物流系统规划的实践和研究现状,构建了城市物流系统规划的内容框架,并指明了各部分的关系。
2.分析了城市物流需求预测的特点和难点,指出提高城市物流需求预测精度的关键途径有两条,一是用组合预测方法综合利用各种单项预测模型所提供的信息;二是针对物流量一般都具有的周期性特征,采用季节性预测模型。为此,本文提出了基于组合技术的季节性预测模型,组合方式包括定常权重组合和变权重组合。进行预测前,用傅立叶分析法识别时间序列的周期性。在预测过程中,对单项预测模型做了一定的改进,例如在霍尔特—温特预测模型中用迭代法寻找最优平滑参数;在季节性RBF神经网络预测模型中,一是用插值的方式重构样本的训练集,提高了网络泛化能力,二是基于嵌入理论和G-P算法,给出季节性神经网络输入维数的估计策略,减少了以往凭经验确定神经网络输入维数的随意性,三是由计算机程序实现在二维区间内对径向基函数的两个重要参数的搜索等。算例分析证明了本文提出的预测模型的有效性。
3.根据目前已有的理论研究和相关城市的实践,将城市物流节点分为三个层次,即用“物流园区—物流中心—配送中心”来构成城市多层次物流节点体系。在对城市物流节点的物流需求量进行预测的基础上,基于整个城市物流运作费用最低的原则,确定城市物流节点的空间布局数量关系。为此,分别针对城市物流正向网络、逆向网络和闭环网络建立了数学模型。对于上述三个模型,都分别给出了物流网络的拓扑结构、模型的假设、目标函数和算例。其中,不同层级的物流节点之间商品或废旧品物流分配量可用物流需求四阶段预测法得到,在用遗传算法求解时,用动态的参数控制策略来控制交叉率、变异率等参数,以提高遗传算法的性能。
4.在系统总结城市物流公共信息平台的内涵、特点、功能需求、建设模式和详细调查宁波市物流信息化现状和存在问题的基础上,以宁波市为例构建了以港口为龙头的城市物流公共信息平台,着重研究了该平台的逻辑体系结构、功能模块和建设步骤,使之成为港口与城市联结的信息结合部。
5.在对国内外物流政策的发展现状和趋势进行系统总结并详细调查宁波市物流政策现状的基础上,以宁波市为例构建了城市物流政策平台。分析了该市物流政策环境建设现状和基本目标,提出了较为完善的、与区域物流中心城市相适应的城市物流政策平台,把物流政策体系归结为:市场和行业规范化的管理政策、培育支持城市物流业发展的产业政策、城市物流管理协调机制、基础设施和信息平台建设保障政策、政府对物流企业的扶持优惠政策以及物流的人才培养政策等六大类。
6.在分析物流市场主体培育发展趋势和详细调查宁波市港口物流市场主体发展现状的基础上,以宁波市为例提出了港口城市物流市场主体培育的总体思路、培育模式和系统的、具体的、可操作性的对策建议。在物流企业选择和评价方面,从功能、客户服务和稳定性等方面建立了一套较为全面、合理的现代第三方物流供应商评价指标体系,将层次分析法和多级模糊综合评价方法用于第三方物流供应商的评价中,并给出了算例。此外,还建立了物流企业的物流能力成熟度模型,为企业查找缺陷和提高物流服务水平提供依据。
本文最后在总结了主要结论和创新点之后,针对论文研究工作的不足,提出了几个有待进一步研究的问题。
Many cities in our country have gradually realized the important role of modern logistics system in pushing the development of urban economy and improving urban competitiveness along with the higher status of logistics in the society and the acceleration of China urbanization process.Some cities have started to plan or construct urban logistics system.It is not more than 10 years before the definition of "urban logistics",the research about urban logistics is very deficient,the theory lags behind the practice seriously.Under the situation,it is not only of great strategic significance but also an urgent realistic task to study the urban logistics system planning.The topic of the dissertation is put forward based on the background,and the aim is to promote the rationality and scientificity of Chinese urban logistics planning.The details are given as bellows:
1.The dissertation summarizes the concepts and characteristics of urban logistics, gives the new concept of the urban logistics according to the developing trend of urban logistics and the practical development of Chinese urban logistics.Then the concept and structure of urban logistics system are given.The dissertation also summarizes the practice and research status of urban logistics system planning systematically at home and abroad,puts forward the the framework of urban logistics system planning,then designates the relationship between each part.
2.The dissertation analyzes the characteristics and difficulties of urban logistics demand forecasting,points out two critical ways to improve the forecasting accuracy.One way is to use combination forecasting method to synthesize some different kinds of forecasting models, the other way is to use seasonal forecasting model to cope with the periodical characteristic of logistics volume time series data.So,the dissertation puts forward the logistics volume periodical forecasting model based on combination technique,the combination modes includes fixed weight and variable weight.In the forecasting process,the dissertation makes a certain modifications to each single forecasting model,therefore improves the forecasting accuracy.The seasonality of the time series is identified by Fourier analysis method.In the process of Holter-winter forecasting model,the best smoothing parameters are found by iterative method.In the process of seasonal RBF neural network forecasting model,the dissertation uses interpolation way to reconstruct the sample set,so as to improve the generalization ability of neural network;gives a method to determine the input dimensions of the neural network based on embedding theory and G-P algorithm,so as to reduce the casualness of determining the input dimension priviously;uses the computer program to search the two important parameters in the two-dimension space;ect.The analysis of example proves the effectiveness of the model.
3.The dissertation classifys the urban logistics joints into three levels,uses "logistics park,logistics center,distribution center" to construct the urban multi-layer logistics joints system.The spatial distribution and quantitative relation of urban logistics joints are determined by the rule of minimizing the whole city logistic fees based on forecasting the logistics demand of urban logistics joints.So,the dissertation establishs three mathematical models for urban logistics toword network,urban logistics inverse network and urban logistics closed network.For the above three models,the dissertation gives the logistics net topological structure,hypothesis,objective function and numerical example respectively.The distribution freight volume of commodity and wastes between the different levels of the logistics joints are calculated by logistics demand four-stage forecasting method.The three mathematical models are solved by modified Genetic Algorithm respectively,the crossover rate and mutation rate of Genetic Algorithm are given by dynamic parameter control strategy so as to imporve the performance of Genetic Algorithm.
4.Based on the systematically summarization of the connotation,characteristics, functional requirements and construction modes of the urban logistics public information platform,and on the detailed survey of the present situation of Ningbo logistics informationization,the dissertation constructs an urban logistic information platform with harbour as the herald taking Ningbo for example.The dissertation emphatically studies logical architecture,function module and building procedures of the platform,so as to make the platform be the best information joint part between the harbor and the city.
5.Based on the systematically summarization of the developing status and trend of logistics policy at home and abroad,and on the detailed survey of the present situation of Ningbo logistics policy,the dissertation constructs an urban logistic policy platform taking Ningbo for example.After analyzing the status and basic goal of the urban logistics policy environment,the dissertation puts forward a set of urban logistics policy system which is relatively more complete and more adaptive to the regional logistics center city.The urban logistics policy system can be come down to six parts,including standardized management policy for the logistics market,supporting policy for logistics industry,coordination mechanism of the urban logistics,security policy of the urban logistics infrastructure and information platform,the favorable policy for the logistics enterprises,talent training and ensuring policy for urban logistics.
6.Based on the systematically analysis of the trend of the logistics market subject cultivating,and on the detailed survey of the present situation of Ningbo habor logistics subject cultivating,the dissertation puts forward the general idea,cultivation model,and a set of systematic and feasible suggestions to the harbor city logistics market subject cultivating taking Ningbo for example.About the choosing and evaluating the logistics enterprises,the dissertation constructs a set of relatively more comprehensive and appropriate evaluation index system,and uses analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to choose and evaluate the modern third-party logistics provider.Finally,an application example is given.In addition,the logistics capability maturity model is build to provide evidence for the logistics enterprise to search the shortage and improve the service.
At last,after summing up the main conclusions and innovative points of the dissertation. the problems needing further research are pointed out.
1.概述城市物流的概念和特点,结合城市物流发展的趋势和当前我国城市物流发展实际,提出了新的城市物流的定义。描述了城市物流系统的概念和结构,系统总结了国内外城市物流系统规划的实践和研究现状,构建了城市物流系统规划的内容框架,并指明了各部分的关系。
2.分析了城市物流需求预测的特点和难点,指出提高城市物流需求预测精度的关键途径有两条,一是用组合预测方法综合利用各种单项预测模型所提供的信息;二是针对物流量一般都具有的周期性特征,采用季节性预测模型。为此,本文提出了基于组合技术的季节性预测模型,组合方式包括定常权重组合和变权重组合。进行预测前,用傅立叶分析法识别时间序列的周期性。在预测过程中,对单项预测模型做了一定的改进,例如在霍尔特—温特预测模型中用迭代法寻找最优平滑参数;在季节性RBF神经网络预测模型中,一是用插值的方式重构样本的训练集,提高了网络泛化能力,二是基于嵌入理论和G-P算法,给出季节性神经网络输入维数的估计策略,减少了以往凭经验确定神经网络输入维数的随意性,三是由计算机程序实现在二维区间内对径向基函数的两个重要参数的搜索等。算例分析证明了本文提出的预测模型的有效性。
3.根据目前已有的理论研究和相关城市的实践,将城市物流节点分为三个层次,即用“物流园区—物流中心—配送中心”来构成城市多层次物流节点体系。在对城市物流节点的物流需求量进行预测的基础上,基于整个城市物流运作费用最低的原则,确定城市物流节点的空间布局数量关系。为此,分别针对城市物流正向网络、逆向网络和闭环网络建立了数学模型。对于上述三个模型,都分别给出了物流网络的拓扑结构、模型的假设、目标函数和算例。其中,不同层级的物流节点之间商品或废旧品物流分配量可用物流需求四阶段预测法得到,在用遗传算法求解时,用动态的参数控制策略来控制交叉率、变异率等参数,以提高遗传算法的性能。
4.在系统总结城市物流公共信息平台的内涵、特点、功能需求、建设模式和详细调查宁波市物流信息化现状和存在问题的基础上,以宁波市为例构建了以港口为龙头的城市物流公共信息平台,着重研究了该平台的逻辑体系结构、功能模块和建设步骤,使之成为港口与城市联结的信息结合部。
5.在对国内外物流政策的发展现状和趋势进行系统总结并详细调查宁波市物流政策现状的基础上,以宁波市为例构建了城市物流政策平台。分析了该市物流政策环境建设现状和基本目标,提出了较为完善的、与区域物流中心城市相适应的城市物流政策平台,把物流政策体系归结为:市场和行业规范化的管理政策、培育支持城市物流业发展的产业政策、城市物流管理协调机制、基础设施和信息平台建设保障政策、政府对物流企业的扶持优惠政策以及物流的人才培养政策等六大类。
6.在分析物流市场主体培育发展趋势和详细调查宁波市港口物流市场主体发展现状的基础上,以宁波市为例提出了港口城市物流市场主体培育的总体思路、培育模式和系统的、具体的、可操作性的对策建议。在物流企业选择和评价方面,从功能、客户服务和稳定性等方面建立了一套较为全面、合理的现代第三方物流供应商评价指标体系,将层次分析法和多级模糊综合评价方法用于第三方物流供应商的评价中,并给出了算例。此外,还建立了物流企业的物流能力成熟度模型,为企业查找缺陷和提高物流服务水平提供依据。
本文最后在总结了主要结论和创新点之后,针对论文研究工作的不足,提出了几个有待进一步研究的问题。
Many cities in our country have gradually realized the important role of modern logistics system in pushing the development of urban economy and improving urban competitiveness along with the higher status of logistics in the society and the acceleration of China urbanization process.Some cities have started to plan or construct urban logistics system.It is not more than 10 years before the definition of "urban logistics",the research about urban logistics is very deficient,the theory lags behind the practice seriously.Under the situation,it is not only of great strategic significance but also an urgent realistic task to study the urban logistics system planning.The topic of the dissertation is put forward based on the background,and the aim is to promote the rationality and scientificity of Chinese urban logistics planning.The details are given as bellows:
1.The dissertation summarizes the concepts and characteristics of urban logistics, gives the new concept of the urban logistics according to the developing trend of urban logistics and the practical development of Chinese urban logistics.Then the concept and structure of urban logistics system are given.The dissertation also summarizes the practice and research status of urban logistics system planning systematically at home and abroad,puts forward the the framework of urban logistics system planning,then designates the relationship between each part.
2.The dissertation analyzes the characteristics and difficulties of urban logistics demand forecasting,points out two critical ways to improve the forecasting accuracy.One way is to use combination forecasting method to synthesize some different kinds of forecasting models, the other way is to use seasonal forecasting model to cope with the periodical characteristic of logistics volume time series data.So,the dissertation puts forward the logistics volume periodical forecasting model based on combination technique,the combination modes includes fixed weight and variable weight.In the forecasting process,the dissertation makes a certain modifications to each single forecasting model,therefore improves the forecasting accuracy.The seasonality of the time series is identified by Fourier analysis method.In the process of Holter-winter forecasting model,the best smoothing parameters are found by iterative method.In the process of seasonal RBF neural network forecasting model,the dissertation uses interpolation way to reconstruct the sample set,so as to improve the generalization ability of neural network;gives a method to determine the input dimensions of the neural network based on embedding theory and G-P algorithm,so as to reduce the casualness of determining the input dimension priviously;uses the computer program to search the two important parameters in the two-dimension space;ect.The analysis of example proves the effectiveness of the model.
3.The dissertation classifys the urban logistics joints into three levels,uses "logistics park,logistics center,distribution center" to construct the urban multi-layer logistics joints system.The spatial distribution and quantitative relation of urban logistics joints are determined by the rule of minimizing the whole city logistic fees based on forecasting the logistics demand of urban logistics joints.So,the dissertation establishs three mathematical models for urban logistics toword network,urban logistics inverse network and urban logistics closed network.For the above three models,the dissertation gives the logistics net topological structure,hypothesis,objective function and numerical example respectively.The distribution freight volume of commodity and wastes between the different levels of the logistics joints are calculated by logistics demand four-stage forecasting method.The three mathematical models are solved by modified Genetic Algorithm respectively,the crossover rate and mutation rate of Genetic Algorithm are given by dynamic parameter control strategy so as to imporve the performance of Genetic Algorithm.
4.Based on the systematically summarization of the connotation,characteristics, functional requirements and construction modes of the urban logistics public information platform,and on the detailed survey of the present situation of Ningbo logistics informationization,the dissertation constructs an urban logistic information platform with harbour as the herald taking Ningbo for example.The dissertation emphatically studies logical architecture,function module and building procedures of the platform,so as to make the platform be the best information joint part between the harbor and the city.
5.Based on the systematically summarization of the developing status and trend of logistics policy at home and abroad,and on the detailed survey of the present situation of Ningbo logistics policy,the dissertation constructs an urban logistic policy platform taking Ningbo for example.After analyzing the status and basic goal of the urban logistics policy environment,the dissertation puts forward a set of urban logistics policy system which is relatively more complete and more adaptive to the regional logistics center city.The urban logistics policy system can be come down to six parts,including standardized management policy for the logistics market,supporting policy for logistics industry,coordination mechanism of the urban logistics,security policy of the urban logistics infrastructure and information platform,the favorable policy for the logistics enterprises,talent training and ensuring policy for urban logistics.
6.Based on the systematically analysis of the trend of the logistics market subject cultivating,and on the detailed survey of the present situation of Ningbo habor logistics subject cultivating,the dissertation puts forward the general idea,cultivation model,and a set of systematic and feasible suggestions to the harbor city logistics market subject cultivating taking Ningbo for example.About the choosing and evaluating the logistics enterprises,the dissertation constructs a set of relatively more comprehensive and appropriate evaluation index system,and uses analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to choose and evaluate the modern third-party logistics provider.Finally,an application example is given.In addition,the logistics capability maturity model is build to provide evidence for the logistics enterprise to search the shortage and improve the service.
At last,after summing up the main conclusions and innovative points of the dissertation. the problems needing further research are pointed out.
引文
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